Search results for: risk of natural disasters in Italy and abroad

Authors: Siyao Zhu, Yifang Xu

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After natural and man-made disasters, robots can bypass the danger, expedite the search, and acquire unprecedented situational awareness to design rescue plans. The hands-free requirement from the first responders excludes the use of tedious manual control and operation. In unknown, unstructured, and obstructed environments, natural-language-based supervision is not amenable for first responders to formulate, and is difficult for robots to understand. Brain-computer interface is a promising option to overcome the limitations. This study aims to test the feasibility of using electroencephalography (EEG) signals to decode human intentions and detect the level of consensus on robot-provided information. EEG signals were classified using machine-learning and deep-learning methods to discriminate search intentions and agreement perceptions. The results show that the average classification accuracy for intention recognition and consensus assessment is 67% and 72%, respectively, proving the potential of incorporating recognizable users’ bioelectrical responses into advanced robot-assisted systems for emergency response.

Keywords: consensus assessment, electroencephalogram, emergency response, human-robot collaboration, intention recognition, search and rescue

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

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In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: safety risk assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects

Procedia PDF Downloads 461

Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori

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The technology of computer audit played a major role in the progress and prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through research in this paper, we propose the causes of audit risk in a computer environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information management

Procedia PDF Downloads 488

Authors: Sean Sloan

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Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: S. B. D. Samarasinghe, Malini Herath

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Participatory planning is a very important process for decision making and choosing the best alternative options for community welfare, development of the society and its interactions among community and professionals. People’s involvement is considered as the key guidance in participatory planning. Presently, Participatory planning is being used in many fields. It's not only limited to planning but also to disaster management, poverty, housing, etc. In the past, Disaster management practice was a top-down approach, but it raised many issues as it was converted to a bottom-up approach. There are several approaches that can aid disaster management. Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a very successful participatory approach to risk management that is often successfully applied by other disaster-prone countries. In the local context, CBDRM has been applied to prevent Diseases as well as to prevent disasters such as landslides, tsunamis and floods. From three years before, Sri Lanka has initiated the CBDRM approach to minimize landslide vulnerability. Hence, this study mainly focuses on the impact of CBDRM approaches on landslide hazards. Also to identify their successes and failures from both implementing parties and community. This research is carried out based on a qualitative method combined with a descriptive research approach. A successful framework was prepared via a literature review. Case studies were selected considering landslide CBDRM programs which were implemented by Disaster Management Center and National Building Research Organization in Badulla. Their processes were evaluated. Data collection is done through interviews and informal discussions. Then their ideas were quantified by using the Relative Effectiveness index. The resulting numerical value was used to rank the program effectiveness and their success, failures and impacting factors. Results show that there are several failures among implementing parties and the community. Overcoming those factors can make way for better conduction of future CBDRM programs.

Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, disaster management, preparedness, landslide

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Christian Bruss, Simona Gamba, Davide Azzolini, Federico Podestà

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In this paper, the authors assess the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the size and on the age and gender composition of asylum-related migration flows to Europe. With this paper, the authors contribute to the literature by looking at the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the gender and age composition of migration flows in addition to the size of these flows. Conflicting theories predict different outcomes concerning the relationship between political and environmental shocks and the migration flows composition. Analyzing the relationship between the causes of migration and the composition of migration flows could yield more insights into the mechanisms behind migration decisions. In addition, this research may contribute to better informing national authorities in charge of receiving these migrant, as women and children/the elderly require different assistance than young men. To be prepared to offer the correct services, the relevant institutions have to be aware of changes in composition based on the shock in question. The authors analyze the effect of different types of shocks on the number, the gender and age composition of first time asylum seekers originating from 154 sending countries. Among the political shocks, the authors consider: violence between combatants, violence against civilians, infringement of political rights and civil liberties, and state terror. Concerning environmental shocks, natural disasters (such as droughts, floods, epidemics, etc.) have been included. The data on asylum seekers applying to any of the 32 Schengen Area countries between 2008 and 2015 is on a monthly basis. Data on asylum applications come from Eurostat, data on shocks are retrieved from various sources: georeferenced conflict data come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), data on natural disasters from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), data on civil liberties and political rights from Freedom House, data on state terror from the Political Terror Scale (PTS), GDP and population data from the World Bank, and georeferenced population data from the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). The authors adopt a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy, exploiting the different timing of several kinds of shocks across countries. The highly skewed distribution of the dependent variable is taken into account by using count data models. In particular, a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial model is adopted. Preliminary results show that different shocks - such as armed conflict and epidemics - exert weak immediate effects on asylum-related migration flows and almost non-existent effects on the gender and age composition. However, this result is certainly affected by the fact that no time lags have been introduced so far. Finding the correct time lags depends on a great many variables not limited to distance alone. Therefore, finding the appropriate time lags is still a work in progress. Considering the ongoing refugee crisis, this topic is more important than ever. The authors hope that this research contributes to a less emotionally led debate.

Keywords: age, asylum, Europe, forced migration, gender

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Josiane Yaguibou, Ngoy Kishimba, Issiaka V. Coulibaly, Sabrina Pestilli, Falinirina Razanalison, Hantanirina Andremanisa

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Background: Madagascar has one of the least developed road networks in the world with a majority of its national and local roads being earth roads and in poor condition. In addition, the country is affected by frequent natural disasters that further affect the road conditions limiting the accessibility to some parts of the country. In 2021 and 2022, 2.21 million people were affected by drought in the Grand Sud region, and by cyclones and floods in the coastal regions, with disruptions of the health system including last mile distribution of lifesaving maternal health commodities and reproductive health commodities in the health facilities. Program intervention: The intervention uses drone technology to deliver maternal health and family planning commodities in hard-to-reach health facilities in the Grand Sud and Sud-Est of Madagascar, the regions more affected by natural disasters. Methodology The intervention was developed in two phases. A first phase, conducted in the Grand Sud, used drones leased from a private company to deliver commodities in isolated health facilities. Based on the lesson learnt and encouraging results of the first phase, in the second phase (2023) the intervention has been extended to the Sud Est regions with the purchase of drones and the recruitment of pilots to reduce costs and ensure sustainability. Key findings: The drones ensure deliveries of lifesaving commodities in the Grand Sud of Madagascar. In 2023, 297 deliveries in commodities in forty hard-to-reach health facilities have been carried out. Drone technology reduced delivery times from the usual 3 - 7 days necessary by road or boat to only a few hours. Program Implications: The use of innovative drone technology demonstrated to be successful in the Madagascar context to reduce dramatically the distribution time of commodities in hard-to-reach health facilities and avoid stockouts of life-saving medicines. When the intervention reaches full scale with the completion of the second phase and the extension in the Sud-Est, 150 hard-to-reach facilities will receive drone deliveries, avoiding stockouts and improving the quality of maternal health and family planning services offered to 1,4 million people in targeted areas.

Keywords: commodities, drones, last-mile distribution, lifesaving supplies

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Authors: Esam I. Jassim

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The main aim of this paper is to demonstrate the prediction of the model capability of predicting the nucleation process, the growth rate, and the deposition potential of second phase particles in gas flowlines. The primary objective of the research is to predict the risk hazards involved in the marine transportation of compressed natural gas. However, the proposed model can be equally used for other applications including production and transportation of natural gas in any high-pressure flow-line. The proposed model employs the following three main components to approach the problem: computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique is used to configure the flow field; the nucleation model is developed and incorporated in the simulation to predict the incipient hydrate particles size and growth rate; and the deposition of the gas/particle flow is proposed using the concept of the particle deposition velocity. These components are integrated in a comprehended model to locate the hydrate deposition in natural gas flowlines. The present research is prepared to foresee the deposition location of solid particles that could occur in a real application in Compressed Natural Gas loading and offloading. A pipeline with 120 m length and different sizes carried a natural gas is taken in the study. The location of particle deposition formed as a result of restriction is determined based on the procedure mentioned earlier and the effect of water content and downstream pressure is studied. The critical flow speed that prevents such particle to accumulate in the certain pipe length is also addressed.

Keywords: hydrate deposition, compressed natural gas, marine transportation, oceanography

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Lipeng Zhang, Limei Li, Yanming Pearl Zhang

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This paper takes a philosophical view as axiom, and reveals the relationship between information theory and Natural Intelligence and Artificial Intelligence under real world conditions. This paper also derives the relationship between natural intelligence and nature. According to communication principle of information theory, Natural Intelligence can be divided into real part and virtual part. Based on information theory principle that Information does not increase, the restriction mechanism of Natural Intelligence creativity is conducted. The restriction mechanism of creativity reveals the limit of natural intelligence and artificial intelligence. The paper provides a new angle to observe natural intelligence and artificial intelligence.

Keywords: natural intelligence, artificial intelligence, creativity, information theory, restriction of creativity

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori ‎

Abstract:

the technology of Computer audit played a major role in the progress and ‎prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit ‎work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer ‎audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through ‎research in this paper, we proposes the causes of audit risk in a computer ‎environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some ‎extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.‎

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information technology

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Authors: Mariem Saadi, Sabri Kanzari, Adel Zghibi

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In semi-arid areas like the Kairouan region, the constant irrigation with saline water and the overuse of groundwater resources, soils and aquifers salinization has become an increasing concern. In this study, a methodology has been developed to evaluate the groundwater contamination risk based on the unsaturated zone hydraulic properties. Two soil profiles with different ranges of salinity, one located in the north of the plain and another one in the south of plain (each 30 m deep) and both characterized by direct recharge of the aquifer were chosen. Simulations were conducted with Hydrus-1D code using measured precipitation data for the period 1998-2003 and calculated evapotranspiration for both chosen profiles. Four combinations of initial conditions of water content and salt concentration were used for the simulation process in order to find the best match between simulated and measured values. The success of the calibration of Hydrus-1D allowed the investigation of some scenarios in order to assess the contamination risk under different natural conditions. The aquifer risk contamination is related to the natural conditions where it increased while facing climate change and temperature increase and decreased in the presence of a clay layer in the unsaturated zone. Hydrus-1D was a useful tool to predict the groundwater level and quality in the case of a direct recharge and in the absence of any information related to the soil layers except for the texture.

Keywords: Hydrus-1D, Kairouan, salinization, semi-arid region, solute transport, unsaturated zone

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: R. Kiš, M. Malcho, M. Janovcová

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This work aims to present a numerical analysis of the natural gas which flows through a high-pressure pipeline and an orifice plate, through the use of CFD methods. The paper contains CFD calculations for the flow of natural gas in a pipe with different geometry used for the orifice plates. One of them has a standard geometry and a shape without any deformation and the other is deformed by the action of the pressure differential. It shows the behaviour of natural gas in a pipeline using the velocity profiles and pressure fields of the gas in both models with their differences. The entire research is based on the elimination of any inaccuracy which should appear in the flow of the natural gas measured in the high-pressure pipelines of the gas industry and which is currently not given in the relevant standard.

Keywords: orifice plate, high-pressure pipeline, natural gas, CFD analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Yun-Ho Ahn, Hyery Kang, Dong-Yeun Koh, Huen Lee

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In this study, we demonstrate the production of natural gas hydrates from permeable marine sediments with simultaneous mechanisms for methane recovery and methane-air or methane-air/carbon dioxide replacement. The simultaneous melting happens until the chemical potentials become equal in both phases as natural gas hydrate depletion continues and self-regulated methane-air replacement occurs over an arbitrary point. We observed certain point between dissociation and replacement mechanisms in the natural gas hydrate reservoir, and we call this boundary as critical methane concentration. By the way, when carbon dioxide was added, the process of chemical exchange of methane by air/carbon dioxide was observed in the natural gas hydrate. The suggested process will operate well for most global natural gas hydrate reservoirs, regardless of the operating conditions or geometrical constraints.

Keywords: air injection, carbon dioxide sequestration, hydrate production, natural gas hydrate

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Authors: Dipak Sonawane, Sudarshan Daga, Somesh Gupta

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Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals.

Keywords: quantitative risk assessment, hazard assessment, consequence analysis, individual risk, societal risk

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Authors: Mustafa Gülen, Eylem Güzel, Soner Guler

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The studies concentrated on the historical background of Van show the fact that Van has had a significant position as a settlement since ancient times and that it has hosted many civilizations during history. With the dominance of Ottoman Empire in 16th century, the region had been re-constructed by building new walls at the southern side of Van Castle. These construction activities had mostly been fulfilled by the usage of adobe which had been a fundamental material for thousands of years. As a result of natural disasters, battles and the move at the threshold of 20th century to the new settlement which is 9 kilometers away from the Ancient City Van is an open-air museum with the ruins of churches, mosques and baths. In this study, the usage of adobe in historical structures of Van city is evaluated in detail.

Keywords: historical structures, adobe, Van city, adobe

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Authors: Esma Gizem Daskiran, Mehmet Mustafa Daskiran

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This paper investigates the effectiveness of two natural zeolites in reducing expansion of concrete due to alkali-silica reaction. These natural zeolites have different reactive silica content. Three aggregates; two natural sand and one crushed stone aggregate were used while preparing mortar bars in accordance with accelerated mortar bar test method, ASTM C1260. Performance of natural zeolites are compared by examining the expansions due to alkali silica reaction. Natural zeolites added to the mixtures at %10 and %20 replacement levels by weight of cement. Natural zeolite with high reactive silica content had better performance on reducing expansions due to ASR. In this research, using high reactive zeolite at %20 replacement level was effective in mitigating expansions.

Keywords: alkali silica reaction, natural zeolite, durability, expansion

Procedia PDF Downloads 373

Authors: Ahn Yun-Ho, Hyery Kang, Koh Dong-Yeun, Huen Lee

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In this study, we demonstrate the production of natural gas hydrates from permeable marine sediments with simultaneous mechanisms for methane recovery and methane-air or methane-air/carbon dioxide replacement. The simultaneous melting happens until the chemical potentials become equal in both phases as natural gas hydrate depletion continues and self-regulated methane-air replacement occurs over an arbitrary point. We observed certain point between dissociation and replacement mechanisms in the natural gas hydrate reservoir, and we call this boundary as critical methane concentration. By the way, when carbon dioxide was added, the process of chemical exchange of methane by air/carbon dioxide was observed in the natural gas hydrate. The suggested process will operate well for most global natural gas hydrate reservoirs, regardless of the operating conditions or geometrical constraints.

Keywords: air injection, carbon dioxide sequestration, hydrate production, natural gas hydrate

Procedia PDF Downloads 550

Authors: Syed Sameer Aga, Saniya Nissar

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The Xeroderma pigmentosum group D gene (XPD) plays a key role in nucleotide excision repair (NER) pathway of the damaged DNA. Genetic polymorphisms in the coding region of the XPD gene may alter DNA repair capacity of the protein and hence can modulate the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The aim of the study was to determine the genetic association of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) development. 120 CRC patients and 160 normal controls were assessed for genotype frequencies of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism using PCR-RFLP technique. We observed a significant association (p < 0.05) between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of developing CRC (p < 0.05). Additionally, Gln/Gln genotype of the XPD gene doubled the risk for the development of CRC [p < 0.05; OR=2.25 95% CI (1.07-4.7)]. Our results suggest that there is a significant association between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of CRC.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, polymorphism, RFLP, DNA Repair, NER, XPD

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Nayab Kanwal, Noor Us Saher

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The management and utilization of food resources is becoming a big issue due to rapid urbanization, wastage and non-sustainable use of food, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the use of seafood as alternative sources is strongly promoted worldwide. Marine pollution strongly affects marine organisms, which ultimately decreases their export quality. The monitoring of contamination in marine organisms is a good indicator of the environmental quality as well as seafood quality. Monitoring the accumulation of chemical elements within various tissues of organisms has become a useful tool to survey current or chronic levels of heavy metal exposure within an environment. In this perspective, this study was carried out to compare the previous and current levels (Year 2012 and 2014) of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu and Zn) in crabs marketed in Karachi and to estimate the toxicological risk associated with their intake. The accumulation of metals in marine organisms, both essential (Cu and Zn) and toxic (Pb, Cd and Cr), natural and anthropogenic, is an actual food safety issue. Significant (p>0.05) variations in metal concentrations were found in all crab species between the two years, with most of the metals showing high accumulation in 2012. For toxicological risk assessment, EWI (Estimated weekly intake), Target Hazard quotient (THQ) and cancer risk (CR) were also assessed and high EWI, Non- cancer risk (THQ < 1) showed that there is no serious threat associated with the consumption of shellfish species on Karachi coast. The Cancer risk showed the highest risk from Cd and Pb pollution if consumed in excess. We summarize key environmental health research on health effects associated with exposure to contaminated seafood. It could be concluded that considering the Pakistan coast, these edible species may be sensitive and vulnerable to the adverse effects of environmental contaminants; more attention should be paid to the Pb and Cd metal bioaccumulation and to toxicological risks to seafood and consumers.

Keywords: cancer risk, edible crabs, heavy metals pollution, risk assessment

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Authors: Blythe Maltby

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Homeless populations are one of the sections of society most vulnerable to the effects of natural disasters. Channels of communication to these populations are limited as they lack access to mainstream modes of emergency notification, often being the last to know about state emergencies. This study aims to answer if there is a way that cities and policies be designed to help reduce casualty rates to the homeless during state emergencies, such as earthquake and tsunami preparations. The study used a qualitative research approach, namely by speaking to levels of government, homelessness charities and workers and others about preparations and their experiences with the response of state emergencies. The proposed paper may help countries identify the gaps in their preparations to help facilitate better resources to look after these vulnerable populations.

Keywords: accessibility, disaster mitigation, homeless, Vancouver

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Authors: Ali Abdullah Albezaghi

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This article aims to introduce a conceptual framework that can facilitate investigations concerning the role of risk management practices in the relationship between construction risks and the construction project's performance. This article is structured based on the extant literature; it reviews theoretical perspectives, highlights the gaps, and illustrates the significance of developing a framework of suggested relationships. Despite growing interest in the role of risks in construction project performance, previous studies have paid little attention to investigating the moderating role of risk management practices on the risk-performance link. This has left researchers and construction project managers with minimal information to explain the conditions under which risk management practices can reduce the impact of project-related risks and improve performance. In this context, this article suggests a viable research model with propositions that assess risk-performance relationships and discusses the potential moderating effects on the domain relationship. This paper adds to the risk management literature by focusing on risk variables that directly impact performance. Further, it also considers the moderating role of risk management practices in such relationships.

Keywords: risk management practices, external risks, internal risks, project risks, project performance

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Wencong Lu, Abdul Latif, Raza Ullah, Subhan Ullah

Abstract:

Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk, in turn, may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Although, it is important to assess the risk attitude of farmers and their perception towards different calamitous risk sources for better understanding of their risk management adoption decisions, to the best of our knowledge no studies have been carried out to analyze the risk attitude and risk perceptions in the context of tobacco production in Pakistan. Therefore the study in hand is conducted with an attempt to overcome the gap in existing literature by analyzing different catastrophic risk sources faced by tobacco growers, their attitude towards risk and the effect of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, farmers’ participation in contract farming and off-farm diversification on their risk attitude and risk perception. Around 78% of Pakistan’s entire tobacco crop and nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. The yield/hectare of tobacco produced in KPK province is 14% higher than the global average and 22 % higher than national average. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was selected as main study area as nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. Six districts were purposely selected based on their contribution in overall production for the last five years which accounts for more than 94.84% of the tobacco production in KPK province. Specific objectives taken into considerations for this study are the risk attitude of the farmers for growing FCV tobacco crop, farmers’ risk perception for different risk sources related to tobacco production (as far as the incidence and severity of each risk source is concerned) and the effect of socioeconomic characteristics, contract farming participation and off-farm diversification (income) on the risk attitude and risk perception of FCV tobacco growers.

Keywords: risk attitude, risk perception, contract farming, off-farm diversification, probit model

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mohiuddin

Abstract:

Bangladesh is one of the poorest countries in the world, and ranks low on almost all measures of economic development, thus leaving the population extremely vulnerable to natural disasters and climate events. 20% of GDP come from agriculture but more than 60% of the population relies on agriculture as their main source of income making the entire economy vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters. High population density exacerbates the exposure to and effect of climate events, and increases the levels of vulnerability, as does the poor institutional development of the country. The most vulnerable sectors to climate change impacts in Bangladesh are agriculture, coastal zones, water resources, forestry, fishery, health, biomass, and energy. High temperatures, heavy rainfall, high humidity and fairly marked seasonal variations characterize the climate in Bangladesh: Mild winter, hot humid summer and humid, warm rainy monsoon. Much of the country is flooded during the summer monsoon. The Department of Environment (DOE) under the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) is the focal point for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and coordinates climate related activities in the country. Recently, a Climate Change Cell (CCC) has been established to address several issues including adaptation to climate change. The climate change focus started with The National Environmental Management Action Plan (NEMAP) which was prepared in 1995 in order to initiate the process to address environmental and climate change issues as long-term environmental problems for Bangladesh. Bangladesh was one of the first countries to finalise a NAPA (Preparation of a National Adaptation Plan of Action) which addresses climate change issues. The NAPA was completed in 2005, and is the first official initiative for mainstreaming adaptation to national policies and actions to cope with climate change and vulnerability. The NAPA suggests a number of adaptation strategies, for example: - Providing drinking water to coastal communities to fight the enhanced salinity caused by sea level rise, - Integrating climate change in planning and design of infrastructure, - Including climate change issues in education, - Supporting adaptation of agricultural systems to new weather extremes, - Mainstreaming CCA into policies and programmes in different sectors, e.g. disaster management, water and health, - Dissemination of CCA information and awareness raising on enhanced climate disasters, especially in vulnerable communities. Bangladesh has geared up its environment conservation steps to save the world’s poorest countries from the adverse effects of global warming. Now it is turning towards green economy policies to save the degrading ecosystem. Bangladesh is a developing country and always fights against Natural Disaster. At the same time we also fight for establishing ecological environment through promoting Green Economy/Energy by Youth Networking. ANTAR is coordinating a big Youth Network in the southern part of Bangladesh where 30 Youth group involved. It can be explained as the economic development based on sustainable development which generates growth and improvement in human’s lives while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. Green economy in Bangladesh promotes three bottom lines – sustaining economic, environment and social well-being.

Keywords: resilience, networking, mobilizing, resource

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

Abstract:

Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Jhuang Jin-Jhong, Hsieh Wei-Fan

Abstract:

Climate change causes natural disasters persistently. Therefore, nowadays environmental planning objective tends to the issues of respecting nature and coexisting with nature. As a result, the natural environment analysis, e.g., the analysis of topography, soil, hydrology, climate, vegetation, is highly emphasized. On the other hand, Feng Shui has been a criterion of site selection for residence in Eastern since the ancient times and has had farther influence on site selection for castles and even for temples and tombs. The primary criterion of site selection is judging the quality of Long: mountain range, Sha: nearby mountains, Shui: hydrology, Xue: foundation, Xiang: aspect, which are similar to the environmental variables of mountain range, topography, hydrology and aspect. For the reason, a lot researchers attempt to probe into the connection between the criterion of Feng Shui and environmental planning factors. Most researches only discussed with the composition and theory of space of Feng Shui, but there is no research which explained Feng Shui through the environmental field. Consequently, this study reviewed the theory of Feng Shui through the environmental planning viewpoint and assembled essential composition factors of Feng Shui. The results of this study point. From literature review and comparison of theoretical meanings, we find that the ideal principles for planning the Feng Shui environment can also be used for environmental planning. Therefore, this article uses 12 ideal environmental features used in Feng Shui to contrast the natural aspects of the environment and make comparisons with previous research and classifies the environmental factors into climate, topography, hydrology, vegetation, and soil.

Keywords: the composition of Feng Shui, environmental planning, site selection, main components of the Feng Shui environment

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal, Magdy Abdel-Kader

Abstract:

Purpose: This study explores whether a firm’s effective political risk management is preventing real and accrual earnings management . Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of 130 firms operating in Egypt during the period 2008-2013, two hypotheses are tested using the panel data regression models. Findings: The empirical findings indicate a significant relation between real and accrual earnings management and political risk. Originality/value: This paper provides a statistically evidence on the effects of the political risk management failure on the mangers’ engagement in the real and accrual earnings management practices, and its impact on the firm’s performance.

Keywords: political risk, risk management failure, real activities manipulation, accrual earnings management

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Authors: Finbarr Murphy, Wei Xu, Xian Xu

Abstract:

The embedding of digital technologies in the global economy has attracted increasing attention from economists. With a large and detailed dataset, this study examines the specific case where consumers have a choice between offline and digital channels in the context of insurance purchases. We find that digital channels screen consumers with lower unobserved risk. For the term life, endowment, and disease insurance products, the average risk of the policies purchased through digital channels was 75%, 21%, and 31%, respectively, lower than those purchased offline. As a consequence, the lower unobserved risk leads to weaker information asymmetry and higher profitability of digital channels. We highlight three mechanisms of the risk screening effect: heterogeneous marginal influence of channel features on insurance demand, the channel features directly related to risk control, and the link between the digital divide and risk. We also find that the risk screening effect mainly comes from the extensive margin, i.e., from new consumers. This paper contributes to three connected areas in the insurance context: the heterogeneous economic impacts of digital technology adoption, insurer-side risk selection, and insurance marketing.

Keywords: digital economy, information asymmetry, insurance, mobile application, risk screening

Procedia PDF Downloads 50