Search results for: hazard assessment

Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Hadi Ghasemi, Mark Leonard, Spiliopoulos Spiro, Phil Cummins, Mathew Moihoi, Felix Taranu, Eric Buri, Chris Mckee

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In this study the level of seismic hazard in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) was calculated for return period of 475 years, using modeled seismic sources and assigned ground-motion equations. The calculations were performed for bedrock site conditions (Vs30=760 m/s). From the results it is evident that the seismic hazard reaches its maximum level (i.e. PGA≈1g for 475 yr return period) at the Huon Peninsula and southern New Britain regions. Disaggregation analysis revealed that moderate to large earthquakes occurring along the New Britain Trench mainly control the level of hazard at these locations. The open-source computer program OpenQuake developed by Global Earthquake Model foundation was used for the seismic hazard computations. It should be emphasized that the presented results are still preliminary and should not be interpreted as our final assessment of seismic hazard in PNG.

Keywords: probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, Papua New Guinea, building code, OpenQuake

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Sang-Hun Byun

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Risk assessment is carried out in most industrial plants for accident prevention, but there exists insufficient data for statistical decision making. It is commonly said that risk can be expressed as a product of consequence and likelihood of a corresponding hazard factor. Eventually, therefore, risk assessment involves human decision making which cannot be objective per se. This study was carried out to comprehend perceptive characteristics of human beings in industrial plants. Subjects were shown a set of illustrations describing scenes of industrial plants, and were asked to assess the risk of each scene with not only linguistic variables but also numeric scores in the aspect of consequence and likelihood. After that, their responses were formulated as fuzzy membership functions, and compared with those of university students who had no experience of industrial works. The results showed that risk level of industrial workers were lower than those of any other groups, which implied that the workers might generally have a tendency to neglect more hazard factors in their work fields.

Keywords: fuzzy, hazard, linguistic variable, risk assessment

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Authors: Lingzhi Li, Jiankun Zhang, Tiantian Gu

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Hazard management that can prevent fatal accidents and property losses is a fundamental process during the buildings’ construction stage. However, due to lack of safety supervision resources and operational pressures, the conduction of hazard management is poor and ineffective in China. In order to improve the quality of construction safety management, it is critical to explore the use of information technologies to ensure that the process of hazard management is efficient and effective. After exploring the existing problems of construction hazard management in China, this paper develops the griddization management model for construction hazard management. First, following the knowledge grid infrastructure, the griddization computing infrastructure for construction hazards management is designed which includes five layers: resource entity layer, information management layer, task management layer, knowledge transformation layer and application layer. This infrastructure will be as the technical support for realizing grid management. Second, this study divides the construction hazards into grids through city level, district level and construction site level according to grid principles. Last, a griddization management process including hazard identification, assessment and control is developed. Meanwhile, all stakeholders of construction safety management, such as owners, contractors, supervision organizations and government departments, should take the corresponding responsibilities in this process. Finally, a case study based on actual construction hazard identification, assessment and control is used to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed griddization management model. The advantage of this designed model is to realize information sharing and cooperative management between various safety management departments.

Keywords: construction hazard, griddization computing, grid management, process

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Stefano Zappacosta, Cristiano Bove, Maria Carmela Marinelli, Paola di Lauro, Katarina Spasenovic, Lorenzo Ostano, Giuseppe Aiello, Marco Pietrosanto

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This paper proposes a novel neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The proposed hybrid model can be used to classify four different increasing levels of hazard. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale). The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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Authors: Dipak Sonawane, Sudarshan Daga, Somesh Gupta

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Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals.

Keywords: quantitative risk assessment, hazard assessment, consequence analysis, individual risk, societal risk

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Authors: Deepshikha Shukla, C. H. Solanki, Mayank K. Desai

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Amongst all the natural hazards, earthquakes have the potential for causing the greatest damages. Since the earthquake forces are random in nature and unpredictable, the quantification of the hazards becomes important in order to assess the hazards. The time and place of a future earthquake are both uncertain. Since earthquakes can neither be prevented nor be predicted, engineers have to design and construct in such a way, that the damage to life and property are minimized. Seismic hazard analysis plays an important role in earthquake design structures by providing a rational value of input parameter. In this paper, both mathematical, as well as computational methods adopted by researchers globally in the past five years, will be discussed. Some mathematical approaches involving the concepts of Poisson’s ratio, Convex Set Theory, Empirical Green’s Function, Bayesian probability estimation applied for seismic hazard and FOSM (first-order second-moment) algorithm methods will be discussed. Computational approaches and numerical model SSIFiBo developed in MATLAB to study dynamic soil-structure interaction problem is discussed in this paper. The GIS-based tool will also be discussed which is predominantly used in the assessment of seismic hazards.

Keywords: computational methods, MATLAB, seismic hazard, seismic measurements

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Authors: Noushin Naraghi Araghi, M. Nawawi, Syed Mustafizur Rahman

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This paper presents the effect of Sumatra fault earthquakes on west Malaysia by calculating the peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA). PGA is calculated by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). A uniform catalog of earthquakes for the interest region has been provided. We used empirical relations to convert all magnitudes to Moment Magnitude. After eliminating foreshocks and aftershocks in order to achieve more reliable results, the completeness of the catalog and uncertainty of magnitudes have been estimated and seismicity parameters were calculated. Our seismic source model considers the Sumatran strike slip fault that is known historically to generate large earthquakes. The calculations were done using the logic tree method and four attenuation relationships and slip rates for different part of this fault. Seismic hazard assessment carried out for 48 grid points. Eventually, two seismic hazard maps based PGA for 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 year are presented.

Keywords: Sumatra fault, west Malaysia, PGA, seismic parameters

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Authors: Mustafa M. Bob, Norhan Rahman, Abdalla Elamin, Saud Taher

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The objective of this study was to assess the suitability of Madinah city groundwater for irrigation purposes. Of the twenty three wells that were drilled in different locations in the city for the purposes of this study, twenty wells were sampled for water quality analyses. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) classification of irrigation water that is based on Sodium hazard (SAR) and salinity hazard was used for suitability assessment. In addition, the residual sodium carbonate (RSC) was calculated for all samples and also used for irrigation suitability assessment. Results showed that all groundwater samples are in the acceptable quality range for irrigation based on RSC values. When SAR and salinity hazard were assessed, results showed that while all groundwater samples (except one) fell in the acceptable range of SAR, they were either in the high or very high salinity zone which indicates that care should be taken regarding the type of soil and crops in the study area.

Keywords: irrigation suitability, TDS, salinity, SAR

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Authors: Devanjan Bhattacharya, Jitka Komarkova

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The research describes the implementation of a novel and stand-alone system for dynamic hazard warning. The system uses all existing infrastructure already in place like mobile networks, a laptop/PC and the small installation software. The geospatial dataset are the maps of a region which are again frugal. Hence there is no need to invest and it reaches everyone with a mobile. A novel architecture of hazard assessment and warning introduced where major technologies in ICT interfaced to give a unique WebGIS based dynamic real time geohazard warning communication system. A never before architecture introduced for integrating WebGIS with telecommunication technology. Existing technologies interfaced in a novel architectural design to address a neglected domain in a way never done before–through dynamically updatable WebGIS based warning communication. The work publishes new architecture and novelty in addressing hazard warning techniques in sustainable way and user friendly manner. Coupling of hazard zonation and hazard warning procedures into a single system has been shown. Generalized architecture for deciphering a range of geo-hazards has been developed. Hence the developmental work presented here can be summarized as the development of internet-SMS based automated geo-hazard warning communication system; integrating a warning communication system with a hazard evaluation system; interfacing different open-source technologies towards design and development of a warning system; modularization of different technologies towards development of a warning communication system; automated data creation, transformation and dissemination over different interfaces. The architecture of the developed warning system has been functionally automated as well as generalized enough that can be used for any hazard and setup requirement has been kept to a minimum.

Keywords: geospatial, web-based GIS, geohazard, warning system

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Authors: Nihat Dipova, Bulent Cangir

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This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Antalya (SW Turkey). South west of Turkey is characterized by large earthquakes resulting from the continental collision between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and crustal faults. Earthquakes around the study area are grouped into two; crustal earthquakes (D=0-50 km) and subduction zone earthquakes (50-140 km). Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw=6.0. Maximum magnitude of crustal earthquakes is Mw=6.6. Sources for crustal earthquakes are faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. A new earthquake catalogue for Antalya, with unified moment magnitude scale has been prepared and seismicity of the area around Antalya city has been evaluated by defining ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. The Standard Cornell-McGuire method has been used for hazard computation utilizing CRISIS2007 software. Attenuation relationships proposed by Chiou and Youngs (2008) has been used for 0-50 km earthquakes and Youngs et. al (1997) for deep subduction earthquakes. Finally, Seismic hazard map for peak horizontal acceleration on a uniform site condition of firm rock (average shear wave velocity of about 1130 m/s) at a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years has been prepared.

Keywords: Antalya, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard assessment, subduction

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Hyunjung Kim, Kune-Woo Lee

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Decommissioning process of nuclear facilities can be said to consist of a sequence of problem solving activities, partly because there may exist working environments contaminated by radiological exposure, and partly because there may also exist industrial hazards such as fire, explosions, toxic materials, and electrical and physical hazards. As for an individual hazard factor, risk assessment techniques are getting known to industrial workers with advance of safety technology, but the way how to integrate those results is not. Furthermore, there are few workers who experienced decommissioning operations a lot in the past. Therefore, not a few countries in the world have been trying to develop appropriate counter techniques in order to guarantee safety and efficiency of the process. In spite of that, there still exists neither domestic nor international standard since nuclear facilities are too diverse and unique. In the consequence, it is quite inevitable to imagine and assess the whole risk in the situation anticipated one by one. This paper aimed to find out an appropriate technique to integrate individual risk assessment results from the viewpoint of experts. Thus, on one hand the whole risk assessment activity for decommissioning operations was modeled as a sequence of individual risk assessment steps, and on the other, a hierarchical risk structure was developed. Then, risk assessment procedure that can elicit individual hazard factors one by one were introduced with reference to the standard operation procedure (SOP) and hierarchical task analysis (HTA). With an assumption of quantification and normalization of individual risks, a technique to estimate relative weight factors was tried by using the conventional Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and its result was reviewed with reference to judgment of experts. Besides, taking the ambiguity of human judgment into consideration, debates based upon fuzzy inference was added with a mathematical case study.

Keywords: decommissioning, risk assessment, analytic hierarchical process (AHP), fuzzy inference

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Authors: Amira Kaddour

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To curb the problem of liquidity in times of financial crises, two cases arise; the Bailout or Bailin, two opposite choices that elicit the analysis of their effect on moral hazard. This paper attempts to empirically analyze the effect of these two types of events on the behavior of investors. For this end, we use the Emerging Market Bonds Index (EMBI-JP Morgan), and its excess of return, to detect the change in the risk premia through a Markov switching model. The results showed the transition to two types of regime and an effect on moral hazard; Bailout is an incentive of moral hazard, Bailin effectiveness remains subject of credibility.

Keywords: Bailout, Bailin, Moral hazard, financial crisis, Markov switching

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Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

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Authors: J. K. Karapetyan

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In this paper seismological-statistical analysis of actual instrumental data on the main tremor of the Great Japan earthquake 11.03.2011 is implemented for finding out the dependence between maximal values of peak ground accelerations (PGA) and epicentric distances. A number of peculiarities of manifestation of accelerations' maximum values at the interval of long epicentric distances are revealed which do not correspond with current scales of seismic intensity.

Keywords: earthquakes, instrumental records, seismic hazard, Japan

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Authors: Loonibha Manandhar, Rajendra Bhandari, Kumud Raj Kafle

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Nepal’s Terai region is a part of the Ganges river basin which is one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world, with recurrent monsoon flooding causing millions in damage and the death and displacement of hundreds of people and households every year. The vulnerability of human settlements to natural disasters such as floods is increasing, and mapping changes in land use practices and hydro-geological parameters is essential in developing resilient communities and strong disaster management policies. The objective of this study was to develop a flood hazard zonation map of Orai Khola watershed and map the decadal land use/land cover dynamics of the watershed. The watershed area was delineated using SRTM DEM, and LANDSAT images were classified into five land use classes (forest, grassland, sediment and bare land, settlement area and cropland, and water body) using pixel-based semi-automated supervised maximum likelihood classification. Decadal changes in each class were then quantified using spatial modelling. Flood hazard mapping was performed by assigning weights to factors slope, rainfall distribution, distance from the river and land use/land cover on the basis of their estimated influence in causing flood hazard and performing weighed overlay analysis to identify areas that are highly vulnerable. The forest and grassland coverage increased by 11.53 km² (3.8%) and 1.43 km² (0.47%) from 1996 to 2016. The sediment and bare land areas decreased by 12.45 km² (4.12%) from 1996 to 2016 whereas settlement and cropland areas showed a consistent increase to 14.22 km² (4.7%). Waterbody coverage also increased to 0.3 km² (0.09%) from 1996-2016. 1.27% (3.65 km²) of total watershed area was categorized into very low hazard zone, 20.94% (60.31 km²) area into low hazard zone, 37.59% (108.3 km²) area into moderate hazard zone, 29.25% (84.27 km²) area into high hazard zone and 31 villages which comprised 10.95% (31.55 km²) were categorized into high hazard zone area.

Keywords: flood hazard, land use/land cover, Orai river, supervised maximum likelihood classification, weighed overlay analysis

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Authors: Dorna Kargar, Mehrasa Masih

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Due to its special geological and geographical conditions, Iran has always been exposed to various natural hazards. Earthquake is one of the natural hazards with random nature that can cause significant financial damages and casualties. This is a serious threat, especially in areas with active faults. Therefore, considering the population density in some parts of the country, locating and zoning high-risk areas are necessary and significant. In the present study, seismic hazard assessment via probabilistic and deterministic method for Tehran, the capital of Iran, which is located in Alborz-Azerbaijan province, has been done. The seismicity study covers a range of 200 km from the north of Tehran (X=35.74° and Y= 51.37° in LAT-LONG coordinate system) to identify the seismic sources and seismicity parameters of the study region. In order to identify the seismic sources, geological maps at the scale of 1: 250,000 are used. In this study, we used Kijko-Sellevoll's method (1992) to estimate seismicity parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude Mmax, activity rate λ, and the Gutenberg-Richter parameter b) from incomplete data files is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude values. By the combination of seismicity and seismotectonic studies of the site, the acceleration with antiseptic probability may happen during the useful life of the structure is calculated with probabilistic and deterministic methods. Applying the results of performed seismicity and seismotectonic studies in the project and applying proper weights in used attenuation relationship, maximum horizontal and vertical acceleration for return periods of 50, 475, 950 and 2475 years are calculated. Horizontal peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.12g, 0.30g, 0.37g and 0.50, and Vertical peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.08g, 0.21g, 0.27g and 0.36g.

Keywords: peak ground acceleration, probabilistic and deterministic, seismic hazard assessment, seismicity parameters

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Authors: Sarada Prasad Pradhan, Vikram Vishal, Tariq Siddique

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With a vast area of India comprising of hilly terrain and road cut slopes, landslides and rockfalls are a common phenomenon. However, while landslide studies have received much attention in the past in India, very little literature and analysis is available regarding rockfall hazard of many rockfall prone areas, specifically in Uttarakhand Himalaya, India. The subsequent lack of knowledge and understanding of the rockfall phenomenon as well as frequent incidences of rockfall led fatalities urge the necessity of conducting site-specific rockfall studies to highlight the importance of addressing this issue as well as to provide data for safe design of preventive structures. The present study has been conducted across 10 rockfall prone road cut slopes for a distance of 15 km starting from Devprayag, India along National Highway 58 (NH-58). In order to make a qualitative assessment of Rockfall Hazard posed by these slopes, Rockfall Hazard Rating using standards for Indian Rockmass has been conducted at 10 locations under different slope conditions. Moreover, to accurately predict the characteristics of the possible rockfall phenomenon, numerical simulation was carried out to calculate the maximum bounce heights, total kinetic energies, translational velocities and trajectories of the falling rockmass blocks when simulated on each of these slopes according to real-life conditions. As it was observed that varying slope geometry had more fatal impacts on Rockfall hazard than size of rock masses, several optimizations have been suggested for each slope regarding location of barriers and modification of slope geometries in order to minimize damage by falling rocks. This study can be extremely useful in emphasizing the significance of rockfall studies and construction of mitigative barriers and structures along NH-58 around Devprayag.

Keywords: rockfall, slope stability, rockmass, hazard

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Authors: Chantarat Manvichien

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The purpose of this research paper was aimed to examine the bird strike prevention in the vicinity of Suvarnabhumi Airport, Thailand. A bird strike event occurs when a bird or a flock of birds collide with an operating airplane and results in flight interruption. This is the reason why International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a part of the United Nations, has an assumption that birds, including other wildlife, are a serious hazard to aircraft and attempts should be accomplished to overcome this hazard. ICAO requires all airports worldwide to set up proactive countermeasures in order to reduce the risk from bird strike and wildlife hazard. In Thailand, the Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited which manages Suvarnabhumi Airport, also known as Bangkok International Airport, responds to the requirements and spends a lot of effort to ensure this hazard is manageable. An intensive study on the countermeasures to prevent aircraft accident from bird strike and other wildlife have been continuously executed since the early construction of the Airport until nowadays.

Keywords: bird strike, flight safety, wildlife hazard, Suvarnabhumi airport

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Henry E. Reyes, Edén Bojórquez, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar

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This paper addressed the use of Artificial Intelligence to obtain the structural reliability of reinforced concrete buildings. For this purpose, artificial neuronal networks (ANN) are developed to predict seismic demand hazard curves. In order to have enough input-output data to train the ANN, a set of reinforced concrete buildings (low, mid, and high rise) are designed, then a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is made to obtain the seismic demand hazard curves. The results are then used as input-output data to train the ANN in a feedforward backpropagation model. The predicted values of the seismic demand hazard curves found by the ANN are then compared. Finally, it is concluded that the computer time analysis is significantly lower and the predictions obtained from the ANN were accurate in comparison to the values obtained from the conventional methods.

Keywords: structural reliability, seismic design, machine learning, artificial neural network, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic demand hazard curves

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: Freddy Houndekindo

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A study was carried out to evaluate the flood risk in the district of Malanville located along the Niger River. The knowledge produce by this study is useful in the implementation of adaptation and/or mitigation measures to alleviate the impact of the flooding on the populations, the economy and the environment. Over the course of the study, the lack of data in the area of interest has been one of the main challenges encountered. Therefore, in the analysis of the flood hazard different sources of remotely sensed data were used. Moreover, the flood hazard was analysed by applying a 1D hydraulic model: HEC-RAS. After setting up the model for the study area, the different flood scenarios considered were simulated and mapped using ArcGIS and the HEC-GEORAS extension. The result of the simulation gave information about the inundated areas and the water depths at each location. From the analysis of the flood hazard, it was found that between 47% and 50% of the total area of the district of Malanville would be flooded in the different flood scenarios considered, and the water depth varies between 1 and 7 m. The townships of Malanville most at risk of flooding are Momkassa and Galiel, located in a high-risk and very high-risk zone, respectively. Furthermore, the assessment of the flood risk showed that the most vulnerable sector to the inundations is the agricultural sector. Indeed, the cultivated floodplains were the most affected areas by the floodwater in every flood scenarios. Knowing that a high proportion of the population of the district relies on their farmlands in these floodplains for their livelihood, the floods pose a challenge not only to the food security in the area but also to its development.

Keywords: flood risk management, Niger, remote sensing, vulnerability

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Authors: Shotiros Protong

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The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. It is necessary to focus on the principal parameters used for analysis such as land cover land use, rainfall values, characteristic of soil and digital elevation model (DEM). The combination of intense rainfall and severe monsoons is increasing due to global climate change. Landslide occurrences rapidly increase during intense rainfall especially in the rainy season in Thailand which usually starts around mid-May and ends in the middle of October. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data are used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. Geological and land use data are used to define the probability of landslide occurrences in terms of geotechnical data. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. To address the research objectives, the methods are described in this study: setup and calibration of the SINMAP model, sensitivity of the SINMAP model, geotechnical laboratory, landslide assessment at present calibration and landslide assessment under future climate simulation scenario A2 and B2. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. During 1954-2012 period, is used for the baseline of rainfall data at the present calibration. The climate change in Thailand, the future of climate scenarios are simulated by spatial and temporal scales. The precipitation impact is need to predict for the climate future, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change between latitude 16o 26’ and 18o 37’ north and between longitude 98o 52’ and 103o 05’ east by SDSM software. The research allows the mapping of risk parameters for landslide dynamics, and indicates the spatial and time trends of landslide occurrences. Thus, regional landslide hazard mapping under present-day climatic conditions from 1954 to 2012 and simulations of climate change based on GCM scenarios A2 and B2 from 2013 to 2099 related to the threshold rainfall values for the selected the study area in Uttaradit province in the northern part of Thailand. Finally, the landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km2 ) in both the present and the future under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province.

Keywords: landslide hazard, GIS, slope stability index (SINMAP), landslides, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: F. D. Konstandakopoulou, G. A. Papagiannopoulos, N. G. Pnevmatikos, G. D. Hatzigeorgiou

Abstract:

This paper examines the effects of pile-soil-structure interaction on the dynamic response of offshore platforms under the action of near-fault earthquakes. Two offshore platforms models are investigated, one with completely fixed supports and one with piles which are clamped into deformable layered soil. The soil deformability for the second model is simulated using non-linear springs. These platform models are subjected to near-fault seismic ground motions. The role of fault mechanism on platforms’ response is additionally investigated, while the study also examines the effects of different angles of incidence of seismic records on the maximum response of each platform.

Keywords: hazard analysis, offshore platforms, earthquakes, safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Hui-Chen Tsai, Chien-Jen Ho, Bo-Wei Power Liang, Ying Shen, Yi-Hsin Lai

Abstract:

Former Taiwan Metal Mining Corporation and its associated 3 wasted flue gas tunnels, hereinafter referred to as 'TMMC', was contaminated with heavy metals, Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) in soil. Since the contamination had been exposed and unmanaged in the environment for more than 40 years, the extent of the contamination area is estimated to be more than 25 acres. Additionally, TMMC is located in a remote, mountainous area where almost no residents are residing in the 1-km radius area. Thus, it was deemed necessary to conduct an ecological risk assessment in order to evaluate the details of future contaminated site management plan. According to the winter and summer, ecological investigation results, one type of endangered, multiple vulnerable and near threaten plant was discovered, as well as numerous other protected species, such as Crested Serpent Eagle, Crested Goshawk, Black Kite, Brown Shrike, Taiwan Blue Magpie were observed. Ecological soil screening level (Eco-SSLs) developed by USEPA was adopted as a reference to conduct screening assessment. Since all the protected species observed surrounding TMMC site were birds, screening ecological risk assessment was conducted on birds only. The assessment was assessed mainly based on the chemical evaluation, which the contamination in different environmental media was compared directly with the ecological impact levels (EIL) of each evaluation endpoints and the respective hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) could be obtained. The preliminary ecological risk assessment results indicated HI is greater than 1. In other words, the biological stressors (birds) were exposed to the contamination, which was already exceeded the dosage that could cause unacceptable impacts to the ecological system. This result was mainly due to the high concentration of arsenic, metal and lead; thus it was suggested the above mention contaminants should be remediated as soon as possible or proper risk management measures should be taken.

Keywords: screening, ecological risk assessment, ecological impact levels, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Ankit Tyagi, Reet Kamal Tiwari, Naveen James

Abstract:

In India, landslides are the most frequently occurring disaster in the regions of the Himalayas and the Western Ghats. The steep slopes and land use in these areas are quite apprehensive. In the recent past, many landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) works have been carried out in the Himalayas. However, the preparation of LHZ maps considering temporal factors such as seismic ground shaking, seismic amplification at surface level, and rainfall are limited. Hence this study presents a comprehensive use of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method in landslide risk assessment. In this research, we conducted both geospatial and geotechnical analysis to minimize the danger of landslides. Geospatial analysis is performed using high-resolution satellite data to produce landslide causative factors which were given weightage using the MCDM method. The geotechnical analysis includes a slope stability check, which was done to determine the potential landslide slope. The landslide risk map can provide useful information which helps people to understand the risk of living in an area.

Keywords: landslide hazard zonation, PHA, AHP, GIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Masood Beheshtirad

Abstract:

Identification of regions having potential for landslide occurrence is one of the basic measures in natural resources management. Different landslide hazard mapping models are proposed based on the environmental condition and goals. In this research landslide hazard map using multiple regression model were provided and applicability of this model is investigated in Baghdasht watershed. Dependent variable is landslide inventory map and independent variables consist of information layers as Geology, slope, aspect, distance from river, distance from road, fault and land use. For doing this, existing landslides have been identified and an inventory map made. The landslide hazard map is based on the multiple regression provided. The level of similarity potential hazard classes and figures of this model were compared with the landslide inventory map in the SPSS environments. Results of research showed that there is a significant correlation between the potential hazard classes and figures with area of the landslides. The multiple regression model is suitable for application in the Baghdasht Watershed.

Keywords: landslide, mapping, multiple model, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 297