Search results for: fractional chaotic systems

Authors: Mahdi Masoumi, Mehrdad Ardebilipoor, Seyed Aidin Bassam

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel frequency offset (FO) estimator for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing. Simplicity is most significant feature of this algorithm and can be repeated to achieve acceptable accuracy. Also fractional and integer part of FO is estimated jointly with use of the same algorithm. To do so, instead of using conventional algorithms that usually use correlation function, we use DFT of received signal. Therefore, complexity will be reduced and we can do synchronization procedure by the same hardware that is used to demodulate OFDM symbol. Finally, computer simulation shows that the accuracy of this method is better than other conventional methods.

Keywords: DFT, Estimator, Frequency Offset, IEEE802.11a, OFDM.

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Authors: Mohamed M. Mousa, Aidarkhan Kaltayev Shahwar F. Ragab

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In this paper, a new dependable algorithm based on an adaptation of the standard variational iteration method (VIM) is used for analyzing the transition from steady convection to chaos for lowto-intermediate Rayleigh numbers convection in porous media. The solution trajectories show the transition from steady convection to chaos that occurs at a slightly subcritical value of Rayleigh number, the critical value being associated with the loss of linear stability of the steady convection solution. The VIM is treated as an algorithm in a sequence of intervals for finding accurate approximate solutions to the considered model and other dynamical systems. We shall call this technique as the piecewise VIM. Numerical comparisons between the piecewise VIM and the classical fourth-order Runge–Kutta (RK4) numerical solutions reveal that the proposed technique is a promising tool for the nonlinear chaotic and nonchaotic systems.

Keywords: Variational iteration method, free convection, Chaos, Lorenz equations.

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Authors: Chatchai Pesee

Abstract:

This paper examines long-range dependence or longmemory of financial time series on the exchange rate data by the fractional Brownian motion (fBm). The principle of spectral density function in Section 2 is used to find the range of Hurst parameter (H) of the fBm. If 0< H <1/2, then it has a short-range dependence (SRD). It simulates long-memory or long-range dependence (LRD) if 1/2< H <1. The curve of exchange rate data is fBm because of the specific appearance of the Hurst parameter (H). Furthermore, some of the definitions of the fBm, long-range dependence and selfsimilarity are reviewed in Section II as well. Our results indicate that there exists a long-memory or a long-range dependence (LRD) for the exchange rate data in section III. Long-range dependence of the exchange rate data and estimation of the Hurst parameter (H) are discussed in Section IV, while a conclusion is discussed in Section V.

Keywords: Fractional Brownian motion, long-rangedependence, memory, short-range dependence.

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Authors: Sachin Bhalekar, Varsha Daftardar-Gejji

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In the present paper, we present a modification of the New Iterative Method (NIM) proposed by Daftardar-Gejji and Jafari [J. Math. Anal. Appl. 2006;316:753–763] and use it for solving systems of nonlinear functional equations. This modification yields a series with faster convergence. Illustrative examples are presented to demonstrate the method.

Keywords: Caputo fractional derivative, System of nonlinear functional equations, Revised new iterative method.

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Authors: Sukir Maryanto, Didik R. Santosa, Iyan Mulyana, Muhammad Hendrasto

Abstract:

Successive event of explosion earthquake and harmonic tremor recorded at Semeru volcano were analyzed to investigate the dynamical system regarding to their eruptive mechanism. The eruptive activity at Semeru volcano East Java, Indonesia is intermittent emission of ash and bombs with Strombolian style which occurred at interval of 15 to 45 minutes. The explosive eruptions accompanied by explosion earthquakes and followed by volcanic tremor which generated by continuous emission of volcanic ash. The spectral and Lyapunov exponent of successive event of explosion and harmonic tremor were analyzed. Peak frequencies of explosion earthquakes range 1.2 to 1.9 Hz and those of the harmonic tremor have peak frequency range 1.5 — 2.2 Hz. The phase space is reconstructed and evaluated based on the Lyapunov exponents. Harmonic tremors have smaller Lyapunov exponent than explosion earthquakes. It can be considerably as correlated complexity of the mechanism from the variance of spectral and fractal dimension and can be concluded that the successive event of harmonic tremor and explosions are chaotic.

Keywords: Semeru volcano, explosion earthquakes, harmonic tremor, lyapunov exponent, chaotic.

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Authors: Reza Cheraghi Kootiani, Ariffin Bin Samsuri

Abstract:

To derive the fractional flow equation oil displacement will be assumed to take place under the so-called diffusive flow condition. The constraints are that fluid saturations at any point in the linear displacement path are uniformly distributed with respect to thickness; this allows the displacement to be described mathematically in one dimension. The simultaneous flow of oil and water can be modeled using thickness averaged relative permeability, along the centerline of the reservoir. The condition for fluid potential equilibrium is simply that of hydrostatic equilibrium for which the saturation distribution can be determined as a function of capillary pressure and therefore, height. That is the fluids are distributed in accordance with capillary-gravity equilibrium. This paper focused on the fraction flow of water versus cumulative oil recoveries using Buckley Leverett method. Several field cases have been developed to aid in analysis. Producing watercut (at surface conditions) will be compared with the cumulative oil recovery at breakthrough for the flowing fluid.

Keywords: Fractional Flow, Fluid Saturations, Permeability, Cumulative Oil Recoveries, Buckley Leverett Method.

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Authors: Rampal Singh, S. Balasundaram

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the application of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm for single layered feedforward neural networks to non-linear chaotic time series problems. In this algorithm the input weights and the hidden layer bias are randomly chosen. The ELM formulation leads to solving a system of linear equations in terms of the unknown weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer. The solution of this general system of linear equations will be obtained using Moore-Penrose generalized pseudo inverse. For the study of the application of the method we consider the time series generated by the Mackey Glass delay differential equation with different time delays, Santa Fe A and UCR heart beat rate ECG time series. For the choice of sigmoid, sin and hardlim activation functions the optimal values for the memory order and the number of hidden neurons which give the best prediction performance in terms of root mean square error are determined. It is observed that the results obtained are in close agreement with the exact solution of the problems considered which clearly shows that ELM is a very promising alternative method for time series prediction.

Keywords: Chaotic time series, Extreme learning machine, Generalization performance.

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Authors: Elysia Barker, Jian Guo Zhou, Ling Qian, Steve Decent

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A method of modelling topography used in the simulation of riverbeds is proposed in this paper which removes the need for datapoints and measurements of a physical terrain. While complex scans of the contours of a surface can be achieved with other methods, this requires specialised tools which the proposed method overcomes by using fractional Brownian motion (FBM) as a basis to estimate the real surface within a 15% margin of error while attempting to optimise algorithmic efficiency. This removes the need for complex, expensive equipment and reduces resources spent modelling bed topography. This method also accounts for the change in topography over time due to erosion, sediment transport, and other external factors which could affect the topography of the ground by updating its parameters and generating a new bed. The lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) is used to simulate both stationary and steady flow cases in a side-by-side comparison over the generated bed topography using the proposed method, and a test case taken from an external source. The method, if successful, will be incorporated into the current LBM program used in the testing phase, which will allow an automatic generation of topography for the given situation in future research, removing the need for bed data to be specified.

Keywords: Bed topography, FBM, LBM, shallow water, simulations.

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Authors: K. Kamalanand, P. Mannar Jawahar

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Methods of contemporary mathematical physics such as chaos theory are useful for analyzing and understanding the behavior of complex biological and physiological systems. The three dimensional model of HIV/AIDS is the basis of active research since it provides a complete characterization of disease dynamics and the interaction of HIV-1 with the immune system. In this work, the behavior of the HIV system is analyzed using the three dimensional HIV model and a chaotic measure known as the Hurst exponent. Results demonstrate that Hurst exponents of CD4, CD8 cells and viral load vary nonlinearly with respect to variations in system parameters. Further, it was observed that the three dimensional HIV model can accommodate both persistent (H>0.5) and anti-persistent (H<0.5) dynamics of HIV states. In this paper, the objectives of the study, methodology and significant observations are presented in detail.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, mathematical model, chaos theory, Hurst exponent

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Authors: Yih-Ferng Peng

Abstract:

In this paper, the local grid refinement is focused by using a nested grid technique. The Cartesian grid numerical method is developed for simulating unsteady, viscous, incompressible flows with complex immersed boundaries. A finite volume method is used in conjunction with a two-step fractional-step procedure. The key aspects that need to be considered in developing such a nested grid solver are imposition of interface conditions on the inter-block and accurate discretization of the governing equation in cells that are with the inter-block as a control surface. A new interpolation procedure is presented which allows systematic development of a spatial discretization scheme that preserves the spatial accuracy of the underlying solver. The present nested grid method has been tested by two numerical examples to examine its performance in the two dimensional problems. The numerical examples include flow past a circular cylinder symmetrically installed in a Channel and flow past two circular cylinders with different diameters. From the numerical experiments, the ability of the solver to simulate flows with complicated immersed boundaries is demonstrated and the nested grid approach can efficiently speed up the numerical solutions.

Keywords: local grid refinement, Cartesian grid, nested grid, fractional-step method.

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Authors: Arne Koschel, Irina Astrova, Elena Deutschkämer, Jacob Ester, Johannes Feldmann

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In this paper various techniques in relation to large-scale systems are presented. At first, explanation of large-scale systems and differences from traditional systems are given. Next, possible specifications and requirements on hardware and software are listed. Finally, examples of large-scale systems are presented.

Keywords: Distributed file systems, cashing, large scale systems, MapReduce algorithm, NoSQL databases.

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Authors: A. S. Gorobtsov, A. S. Polyanina, A. E. Andreev

Abstract:

The movement of points feet of the anthropomorphous robot in space occurs along some stable trajectory of a known form. A large number of modifications to the methods of control of biped robots indicate the fundamental complexity of the problem of stability of the program trajectory and, consequently, the stability of the control for the deviation for this trajectory. Existing gait generators use piecewise interpolation of program trajectories. This leads to jumps in the acceleration at the boundaries of sites. Another interpolation can be realized using differential equations with fractional derivatives. In work, the approach to synthesis of generators of program trajectories is considered. The resulting system of nonlinear differential equations describes a smooth trajectory of movement having rectilinear sites. The method is based on the theory of an asymptotic stability of invariant sets. The stability of such systems in the area of localization of oscillatory processes is investigated. The boundary of the area is a bounded closed surface. In the corresponding subspaces of the oscillatory circuits, the resulting stable limit cycles are curves having rectilinear sites. The solution of the problem is carried out by means of synthesis of a set of the continuous smooth controls with feedback. The necessary geometry of closed trajectories of movement is obtained due to the introduction of high-order nonlinearities in the control of stabilization systems. The offered method was used for the generation of trajectories of movement of point’s feet of the anthropomorphous robot. The synthesis of the robot's program movement was carried out by means of the inverse method.

Keywords: Control, limits cycle, robot, stability.

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Authors: Taeung Yoon, Youngpo Lee, Chonghan Song, Na Young Ha, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

Ren et al. presented an efficient carrier frequency offset (CFO) estimation method for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM), which has an estimation range as large as the bandwidth of the OFDM signal and achieves high accuracy without any constraint on the structure of the training sequence. However, its detection probability of the integer frequency offset (IFO) rapidly varies according to the fractional frequency offset (FFO) change. In this paper, we first analyze the Ren-s method and define two criteria suitable for detection of IFO. Then, we propose a novel method for the IFO estimation based on the maximum-likelihood (ML) principle and the detection criteria defined in this paper. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the Ren-s method in terms of the IFO detection probability irrespective of a value of the FFO.

Keywords: Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing, integer frequency offset, estimation, training symbol

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Authors: Seema Chopra, R. Mitra, Vijay Kumar

Abstract:

A neurofuzzy approach for a given set of input-output training data is proposed in two phases. Firstly, the data set is partitioned automatically into a set of clusters. Then a fuzzy if-then rule is extracted from each cluster to form a fuzzy rule base. Secondly, a fuzzy neural network is constructed accordingly and parameters are tuned to increase the precision of the fuzzy rule base. This network is able to learn and optimize the rule base of a Sugeno like Fuzzy inference system using Hybrid learning algorithm, which combines gradient descent, and least mean square algorithm. This proposed neurofuzzy system has the advantage of determining the number of rules automatically and also reduce the number of rules, decrease computational time, learns faster and consumes less memory. The authors also investigate that how neurofuzzy techniques can be applied in the area of control theory to design a fuzzy controller for linear and nonlinear dynamic systems modelling from a set of input/output data. The simulation analysis on a wide range of processes, to identify nonlinear components on-linely in a control system and a benchmark problem involving the prediction of a chaotic time series is carried out. Furthermore, the well-known examples of linear and nonlinear systems are also simulated under the Matlab/Simulink environment. The above combination is also illustrated in modeling the relationship between automobile trips and demographic factors.

Keywords: Fuzzy control, neuro-fuzzy techniques, fuzzy subtractive clustering, extraction of rules, and optimization of membership functions.

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Authors: Jixiang Zhang, Guocheng Wang

Abstract:

A dynamic of Bertrand duopoly game is analyzed, where players use different production methods and choose their prices with bounded rationality. The equilibriums of the corresponding discrete dynamical systems are investigated. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability of Nash equilibrium, as some parameters of the model are varied, gives rise to complex dynamics such as cycles of higher order and chaos. On this basis, we discover that an increase of adjustment speed of bounded rational player can make Bertrand market sink into the chaotic state. Finally, the complex dynamics, bifurcations and chaos are displayed by numerical simulation.

Keywords: Bertrand duopoly model, Discrete dynamical system, Heterogeneous expectations, Nash equilibrium.

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Authors: K. P. Csányi, L. T. Kóczy, D. Tikk

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This paper indicate the importance of telecommunications supervision systems (TSS), integrating heterogeneous TSS into single system thru umbrella systems, introduces the structure, features, requirements of TSS and TSS related intelligent solutions.

Keywords: Telecommunication, telecommunication supervisionsystems, umbrella systems

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Authors: Ikbal Zammouri, Béchir Ayeb

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In this paper, we propose a new method to describe fractal shapes using parametric l-systems. First we introduce scaling factors in the production rules of the parametric l-systems grammars. Then we decorticate these grammars with scaling factors using turtle algebra to show the mathematical relation between l-systems and iterated function systems (IFS). We demonstrate that with specific values of the scaling factors, we find the exact relationship established by Prusinkiewicz and Hammel between l-systems and IFS.

Keywords: Fractal shapes, IFS, parametric l-systems, turtlealgebra.

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Authors: S. Ben Said, K. Ben Saad, M. Benrejeb

Abstract:

This paper deals with bifurcation analyses in current programmed DC/DC Boost converter and exhibition of chaotic behavior. This phenomenon occurs due to variation of a set of the studied circuit parameters (input voltage and a reference current). Two different types of bifurcation paths have been observed as part as part of another bifurcation arising from variation of suitable chosen parameter.

Keywords: Bifurcation, Chaos, Boost converter, Current- programmed control, Initial parameters.

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Authors: Yung-Tan Lee, Ren-Yi Huang, Ju-Chin Chen, Jyh-Yi Shih, Meng-Lung Lin, Hsiao-Ling Yu, Yen-Tsui Hu, Chih-Cheng Chen

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Cenozoic basalts found in Jiangsu province of eastern China include tholeiites and alkali basalts. The present paper analyzed the major, trace elements, rare earth elements of these Cenozoic basalts and combined with Sr-Nd isotopic compositions proposed by Chen et al. (1990)[1] in the literatures to discuss the petrogenesis of these basalts and the geochemical characteristics of the source mantle. Based on major, trace elements and fractional crystallization model established by Brooks and Nielsen (1982)[2] we suggest that the basaltic magma has experienced olivine + clinopyroxene fractionation during its evolution. The chemical compositions of basaltic rocks from Jiangsu province indicate that these basalts may belong to the same magmatic system. Spidergrams reveal that Cenozoic basalts from Jiangsu province have geochemical characteristics similar to those of ocean island basalts(OIB). The slight positive Nb and Ti anomalies found in basaltic rocks of this study suggest the presence of Ti-bearing minerals in the mantle source and these Ti-bearing minerals had contributed to basaltic magma during partial melting, indicating a metasomatic event might have occurred before the partial melting. Based on the Sr vs. Nd isotopic ratio plots, we suggest that Jiangsu basalts may be derived from partial melting of mantle source which may represent two-end members mixing of DMM and EM-I. Some Jiangsu basaltic magma may be derived from partial melting of EM-I heated by the upwelling asthenospheric mantle or asthenospheric diapirism.

Keywords: Geochemistry, Jiangsu Province, Cenozoic basalts, Fractional crystallization.

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Authors: J.Partanen

Abstract:

Complexity, as a theoretical background has made it easier to understand and explain the features and dynamic behavior of various complex systems. As the common theoretical background has confirmed, borrowing the terminology for design from the natural sciences has helped to control and understand urban complexity. Phenomena like self-organization, evolution and adaptation are appropriate to describe the formerly inaccessible characteristics of the complex environment in unpredictable bottomup systems. Increased computing capacity has been a key element in capturing the chaotic nature of these systems. A paradigm shift in urban planning and architectural design has forced us to give up the illusion of total control in urban environment, and consequently to seek for novel methods for steering the development. New methods using dynamic modeling have offered a real option for more thorough understanding of complexity and urban processes. At best new approaches may renew the design processes so that we get a better grip on the complex world via more flexible processes, support urban environmental diversity and respond to our needs beyond basic welfare by liberating ourselves from the standardized minimalism. A complex system and its features are as such beyond human ethics. Self-organization or evolution is either good or bad. Their mechanisms are by nature devoid of reason. They are common in urban dynamics in both natural processes and gas. They are features of a complex system, and they cannot be prevented. Yet their dynamics can be studied and supported. The paradigm of complexity and new design approaches has been criticized for a lack of humanity and morality, but the ethical implications of scientific or computational design processes have not been much discussed. It is important to distinguish the (unexciting) ethics of the theory and tools from the ethics of computer aided processes based on ethical decisions. Urban planning and architecture cannot be based on the survival of the fittest; however, the natural dynamics of the system cannot be impeded on grounds of being “non-human". In this paper the ethical challenges of using the dynamic models are contemplated in light of a few examples of new architecture and dynamic urban models and literature. It is suggested that ethical challenges in computational design processes could be reframed under the concepts of responsibility and transparency.

Keywords: urban planning, architecture, dynamic modeling, ethics, complexity theory.

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Authors: H. Mahboubi, B. Moshiri, A. Khaki Seddigh

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In the past decade, because of wide applications of hybrid systems, many researchers have considered modeling and control of these systems. Since switching systems constitute an important class of hybrid systems, in this paper a method for optimal control of linear switching systems is described. The method is also applied on the two-tank system which is a much appropriate system to analyze different modeling and control techniques of hybrid systems. Simulation results show that, in this method, the goals of control and also problem constraints can be satisfied by an appropriate selection of cost function.

Keywords: Hybrid systems, optimal control, switched systems, two-tank system

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Authors: Albertus G. Joubert, Roelien Goede

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This paper explores how Critical Systems Thinking and Action Research can be used to improve student performance in Networking. When describing a system from a systems thinking perspective, the following aspects can be identified: the total system performance, the systems environment, the resources, the components and the management of the system. Following the history of system thinking we observe three emerged methodologies namely, hard systems, soft systems, and critical systems. This paper uses Critical Systems Thinking (CST) which describes systems in terms of contradictions and conflict. It demonstrates how CST can be used in an Action Research (AR) project to improve the performance of students. Intervention in terms of student assessment is discussed and the impact of the intervention is discussed.

Keywords: Action research, computer networks, critical systems thinking, higher education.

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Orumiehchi ha, R. Mirghadri

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The COSvd Ciphers has been proposed by Filiol and others (2004). It is a strengthened version of COS stream cipher family denoted COSvd that has been adopted for at least one commercial standard. We propose a distinguish attack on this version, and prove that, it is distinguishable from a random stream. In the COSvd Cipher used one S-Box (10×8) on the final part of cipher. We focus on S-Box and use weakness this S-Box for distinguish attack. In addition, found a leak on HNLL that the sub s-boxes don-t select uniformly. We use this property for an Improve distinguish attack.

Keywords: Stream cipher, COSvd cipher, distinguish attack, nonlinear feedback shift registers, chaotic layer.

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Authors: Raman Paranjape

Abstract:

We present a new approach to evaluation of Cyber Security in Power Systems using the method of modeling the power systems Infrastructure using software agents. Interfaces between module and the home smart meter are recognized as the primary points of intrusion.

Keywords: Power Systems, Modeling and Simulation, Agent systems.

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Authors: Roelien Goede

Abstract:

Data warehousing success is not high enough. User dissatisfaction and failure to adhere to time frames and budgets are too common. Most traditional information systems practices are rooted in hard systems thinking. Today, the great systems thinkers are forgotten by information systems developers. A data warehouse is still a system and it is worth investigating whether systems thinkers such as Churchman can enhance our practices today. This paper investigates data warehouse development practices from a systems thinking perspective. An empirical investigation is done in order to understand the everyday practices of data warehousing professionals from a systems perspective. The paper presents a model for the application of Churchman-s systems approach in data warehouse development.

Keywords: Data warehouse development, Information systemsdevelopment, Interpretive case study, Systems thinking

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Authors: K. Jaroensutasinee

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The general global behavior of particle S a non-linear (Q - xy)2 potential cannot be revealed a Poincare surface of section method (PSS) because inost trajectories take practically infinitely long time to integrate numerically before they come back to the surface. In this study as an alternative to PSS, a multiple scale perturbation is applied to analyze global adiabatic, non-adiabatic and chaotic behavior of particles in this potential. It was found that the results can be summarized as a form of a Fermi-like map. Additionally, this method gives a variation of global stochasticity criteria with Q.

Keywords: Multiple Scak Perturbation The Poincare Surface or Section, Fermi Map

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Authors: Åsa Smedberg

Abstract:

There are different kinds of online systems on the Internet for people who need support and develop new knowledge. Online communities and Ask the Expert systems are two such systems. In the health care area, the number of users of these systems has increased at a rapid pace. Interactions with medical trained experts take place online, and people with concerns about similar health problems come together to share experiences and advice. The systems are also used as storages and browsed for health information. Over the years, studies have been conducted of the usage of the different systems. However, in what ways the systems can be used together to enhance learning has not been explored. This paper presents results from a study of online health-communities and an Ask the Expert system for people who suffer from overweight. Differences and similarities in regards to posted issues and replies are discussed, and suggestions for a new holistic design of the two systems are presented.

Keywords: Learning, Ask the Expert, online community, healthcare, holistic, overweight.

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Authors: Mitchell J. McHugh, John J. Case

Abstract:

Systems engineering is a holistic discipline that seeks to organize and optimize complex, interdisciplinary systems. With the growth of artificial intelligence, systems engineers must face the challenge of leveraging artificial intelligence systems to solve complex problems. This paper analyzes the integration of systems engineering and artificial intelligence and discusses how artificial intelligence systems embody the systems decision process (SDP). The SDP is a four-stage problem-solving framework that outlines how systems engineers can design and implement solutions using value-focused thinking. This paper argues that artificial intelligence models can replicate the SDP, thus validating its flexible, value-focused foundation. The authors demonstrate this by developing a machine vision mobile application that can classify weapons to augment the decision-making role of an Army subject matter expert. This practical application was an end-to-end design challenge that highlights how artificial intelligence systems embody systems engineering principles. The impact of this research demonstrates that the SDP is a dynamic tool that systems engineers should leverage when incorporating artificial intelligence within the systems that they develop.

Keywords: Computer vision, machine learning, mobile application, systems engineering, systems decision process.

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Authors: Chao Qi, Fuyang Peng, Bo Deng, Xiaoyan Su

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In the upgrade process of enterprise information systems, whether new systems will be success and their development will be efficient, depends on how to deal with and utilize those legacy systems. We propose an evaluation system, which comprehensively describes the capacity of legacy information systems in five aspects. Then a practical legacy systems evaluation method is scripted. Base on the evaluation result, we put forward 4 kinds of migration strategy: eliminated, maintenance, modification, encapsulating. The methods and strategies play important roles in practice.

Keywords: Legacy Systems, Evaluation Method, Migration Strategy.

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Authors: O. J. Olaniran, P. E. D. Love, D. J. Edwards, O. Olatunji, J. Matthews

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Cost overruns are a persistent problem in oil and gas megaprojects. Whilst the extant literature is filled with studies on incidents and causes of cost overruns, underlying theories to explain their emergence in oil and gas megaprojects are few. Yet, a way to contain the syndrome of cost overruns is to understand the bases of ‘how and why’ they occur. Such knowledge will also help to develop pragmatic techniques for better overall management of oil and gas megaprojects. The aim of this paper is to explain the development of cost overruns in hydrocarbon megaprojects through the perspective of chaos theory. The underlying principles of chaos theory and its implications for cost overruns are examined and practical recommendations proposed. In addition, directions for future research in this fertile area provided.

Keywords: Chaos theory, oil and gas, cost overruns, megaprojects.

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