Search results for: systems decision process.

Authors: Mitchell J. McHugh, John J. Case

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Systems engineering is a holistic discipline that seeks to organize and optimize complex, interdisciplinary systems. With the growth of artificial intelligence, systems engineers must face the challenge of leveraging artificial intelligence systems to solve complex problems. This paper analyzes the integration of systems engineering and artificial intelligence and discusses how artificial intelligence systems embody the systems decision process (SDP). The SDP is a four-stage problem-solving framework that outlines how systems engineers can design and implement solutions using value-focused thinking. This paper argues that artificial intelligence models can replicate the SDP, thus validating its flexible, value-focused foundation. The authors demonstrate this by developing a machine vision mobile application that can classify weapons to augment the decision-making role of an Army subject matter expert. This practical application was an end-to-end design challenge that highlights how artificial intelligence systems embody systems engineering principles. The impact of this research demonstrates that the SDP is a dynamic tool that systems engineers should leverage when incorporating artificial intelligence within the systems that they develop.

Keywords: Computer vision, machine learning, mobile application, systems engineering, systems decision process.

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Authors: Yogesh C. Sharma, A. Seetharaman

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The decision-making process in humans is a complicated system influenced by a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Human decisions have a ripple effect on subsequent decisions. In this study, the scope of human decision making is limited to employees. In an organisation, a person makes a variety of decisions from the time they are hired to the time they retire. The goal of this research is to identify various elements that influence decision making. In addition, the environment in which a decision is made is a significant aspect of the decision-making process. Employees in today's workplace use artificial intelligence (AI) systems for automation and decision augmentation. The impact of AI systems on the decision-making process is examined in this study. This research is designed based on a systematic literature review. Based on gaps in the literature, limitations and the scope of future research have been identified. Based on these findings, a research framework has been designed to identify various factors affecting employee decision making. Employee decision making is influenced by technological advancement, data-driven culture, human trust, decision automation-augmentation and workplace motivation. Hybrid human-AI systems require development of new skill sets and organisational design. Employee psychological safety and supportive leadership influences overall job satisfaction.

Keywords: Employee decision making, artificial intelligence, environment, human trust, technology innovation, psychological safety.

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Authors: Eva Štěpánková

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The decision-making process is theoretically clearly defined. Generally, it includes the problem identification and analysis, data gathering, goals and criteria setting, alternatives development and optimal alternative choice and its implementation. In practice however, various modifications of the theoretical decision-making process can occur. The managers can consider some of the phases to be too complicated or unfeasible and thus they do not carry them out and conversely some of the steps can be overestimated. The aim of the paper is to reveal and characterize the perception of the individual phases of decision-making process by the managers. The research is concerned with managers in the military environment – commanders. Quantitative survey is focused cross-sectionally in the individual levels of management of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. On the total number of 135 respondents the analysis focuses on which of the decision-making process phases are problematic or not carried out in practice and which are again perceived to be the easiest. Then it is examined the reasons of the findings.

Keywords: Decision making, decision making process, decision problems.

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Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Tarik Agouti, Abdessadek Tikniouine

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This paper discusses the intake of combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems, to generate an integrated analysis process dealing with complex multi-criteria decision-making situations. In this context, a multi-agent modeling is presented for decision support systems by combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems. The proposed modeling which consists in performing the multi-agent system (MAS) architecture, procedure and protocol of the negotiation model is elaborated as a decision support tool for complex decision-making environments. Our objective is to take advantage from the multi-agent system which distributes resources and computational capabilities across interconnected agents, and provide a problem modeling in terms of autonomous interacting component-agents. Thus, the identification and evaluation of criteria as well as the evaluation and ranking of alternatives in a decision support situation will be performed by organizing tasks and user preferences between different agents in order to reach the right decision. At the end, an illustrative example is conducted to demonstrate the function and effectiveness of our MAS modeling.

Keywords: Multidimensional Analysis, OLAP Analysis, Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, Multi-Agent System, Decision Support System.

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Authors: Wayne Goodridge, Alexander Nikov, Ashok Sahai

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Multi criteria decision making (MCDM) methods like analytic hierarchy process, ELECTRE and multi-attribute utility theory are critically studied. They have irregularities in terms of the reliability of ranking of the best alternatives. The Routing Decision Support (RDS) algorithm is trying to improve some of their deficiencies. This paper gives a mathematical verification that the RDS algorithm conforms to the test criteria for an effective MCDM method when a linear preference function is considered.

Keywords: Decision support systems, linear preference function, multi-criteria decision-making algorithm, analytic hierarchy process.

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Authors: Chee Siong Teh, Chee Peng Lim

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This paper proposes a novel architecture for developing decision support systems. Unlike conventional decision support systems, the proposed architecture endeavors to reveal the decision-making process such that humans' subjectivity can be incorporated into a computerized system and, at the same time, to preserve the capability of the computerized system in processing information objectively. A number of techniques used in developing the decision support system are elaborated to make the decisionmarking process transparent. These include procedures for high dimensional data visualization, pattern classification, prediction, and evolutionary computational search. An artificial data set is first employed to compare the proposed approach with other methods. A simulated handwritten data set and a real data set on liver disease diagnosis are then employed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The results are analyzed and discussed. The potentials of the proposed architecture as a useful decision support system are demonstrated.

Keywords: Interactive evolutionary computation, multivariate data projection, pattern classification, topographic map.

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Authors: B. Mikulskienė

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Public administration institutions in cooperation with politicians are not the sole policy decision makers in full meaning any longer. Meanwhile, a special role, namely steering the decision making process, could be delegated to them. Despite the wide scientific discussion on different aspects what has direct impact on policy creation, there is a lack of holistic practical managerial advice, which could integrate infrastructure of policy decision making with intellectual capital and with interconnection of partnership. The proposed harmonized decision making model of process, people and partnership entitled by acronym HM-3P is analyzed as a framework for implementation of public administration steering role seeking the coherent social involvement in policy decision making.

Keywords: participatory decision making, partnership, stakeholders.

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Authors: Pathinathan Theresanathan, Ajay Minj

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Ignatian Discernment Process (IDP) is an intense decision-making tool to decide on life-issues. Decisions are influenced by various factors outside of the decision maker and inclination within. This paper develops IDP in the context of Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making (FMCDM) process. Extended VIKOR method is a decision-making method which encompasses even conflict situations and accommodates weightage to various issues. Various aspects of IDP, namely three ways of decision making and tactics of inner desires, are observed, analyzed and articulated within the frame work of fuzzy rules. The decision-making situations are broadly categorized into two types. The issues outside of the decision maker influence the person. The inner feeling also plays vital role in coming to a conclusion. IDP integrates both the categories using Extended VIKOR method. Case studies are carried out and analyzed with FMCDM process. Finally, IDP is verified with an illustrative case study and results are interpreted. A confused person who could not come to a conclusion is able to take decision on a concrete way of life through IDP. The proposed IDP model recommends an integrated and committed approach to value-based decision making.

Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process, fuzzy multi-criteria decision making, Ignatian discernment process, Ignatian discernment, multi-criteria decision making, VIKOR.

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Authors: D. Pérez, M. M. E. Alemany

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In this work, a framework to model the Supply Chain (SC) Collaborative Planning (CP) process is proposed. The main contributions of this framework concern 1) the presentation of the decision view, the most important one due to the characteristics of the process, jointly within the physical, organisation and information views, and 2) the simultaneous consideration of the spatial and temporal integration among the different supply chain decision centres. This framework provides the basis for a realistic and integrated perspective of the supply chain collaborative planning process and also the analytical modeling of each of its decisional activities.

Keywords: Collaborative Planning, Decision View, Distributed Decision-Making, Framework.

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Authors: Gülfem Alptekin, S. Emre Alptekin

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Global competitiveness has recently become the biggest concern of both manufacturing and service companies. Electronic commerce, as a key technology enables the firms to reach all the potential consumers from all over the world. In this study, we have presented commonly used electronic payment systems, and then we have shown the evaluation of these systems in respect to different criteria. The payment systems which are included in this research are the credit card, the virtual credit card, the electronic money, the mobile payment, the credit transfer and the debit instruments. We have realized a systematic comparison of these systems in respect to three main criteria: Technical, economical and social. We have conducted a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making procedure to deal with the multi-attribute nature of the problem. The subjectiveness and imprecision of the evaluation process are modeled using triangular fuzzy numbers.

Keywords: Electronic payment systems, fuzzy multi-criteriadecision making, analytical hierarchy process.

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Authors: Ivana Mokrá

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The article deals with modelling of the fire pragmatism in the area of military management and its experimental verification. Potential approaches are based on the synergy of mathematical and theoretical ideas, operational and tactical requirements and the military decision-making process. This issue has taken on importance in recent times, particularly with the increasing trend of digitized battlefield, the development of C4ISR systems and intention to streamline the command and control process at the lowest levels of command. From fundamental and philosophical point of view, these new approaches seek to significantly upgrade and enhance the decision-making process of the tactical commanders.

Keywords: Military management, decision-making process, strike modeling, experimental evaluation, pragmatism, tactical strike modeling

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Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi

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Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.

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Authors: Isa Nakhai Kamal Abadi, Esmaeel Saberi, Ehsan Mirjafari

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Every organization is continually subject to new damages and threats which can be resulted from their operations or their goal accomplishment. Methods of providing the security of space and applied tools have been widely changed with increasing application and development of information technology (IT). From this viewpoint, information security management systems were evolved to construct and prevent reiterating the experienced methods. In general, the correct response in information security management systems requires correct decision making, which in turn requires the comprehensive effort of managers and everyone involved in each plan or decision making. Obviously, all aspects of work or decision are not defined in all decision making conditions; therefore, the possible or certain risks should be considered when making decisions. This is the subject of risk management and it can influence the decisions. Investigation of different approaches in the field of risk management demonstrates their progress from quantitative to qualitative methods with a process approach.

Keywords: Risk Management, Information Security, Methodology, Probability.

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Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy

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In this paper the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.

Keywords: Analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning.

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Authors: Ivana Mokrá

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The contribution deals with current or potential approaches to the modeling and optimization of tactical activities. This issue takes on importance in recent times, particularly with the increasing trend of digitized battlefield, the development of C4ISR systems and intention to streamline the command and control process at the lowest levels of command. From fundamental and philosophically point of view, this new approaches seek to significantly upgrade and enhance the decision-making process of the tactical commanders.

Keywords: Computer decision support, C4ISTAR, ISR, DSS, OTU

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Authors: D. Bąk-Grabowska, K. Grzesik, A. Iwanicka, A. Jagoda

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The process of human resources management in the structures of corporate groups demonstrates certain specificity, resulting from the division of decision-making and executive competencies, which occurs within these structures between a parent company and its subsidiaries. The subprocess of employee assessment is considered crucial, since it provides information for the implementation of personnel function. The empirical studies conducted in corporate groups, within which at least one company is located in Poland, confirmed the critical significance of employee assessment systems in the process of human resources management in corporate groups. Parent companies, most often, retain their decision-making authority within the framework of the discussed process and introduce uniform employee assessment and personnel controlling systems to subsidiary companies. However, the instruments for employee assessment applied in corporate groups do not present such specificity.

Keywords: Corporate groups, employee periodical assessment system, holding, human resources management.

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Authors: Alfonso Bastías, Álvaro González

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The actual grow of the infrastructure in develop country require sophisticate ways manage the operation and control the quality served. This research wants to concentrate in the operation of this infrastructure beyond the construction. The infrastructure-s operation involves an uncertain environment, where unexpected variables are present every day and everywhere. Decision makers need to make right decisions with right information/data analyzed most in real time. To adequately support their decisions and decrease any negative impact and collateral effect, they need to use computational tools called decision support systems (DSS), but now the main source of information came from common users thought an extensive crowdsourcing

Keywords: Crowdsourcing, Learning Systems, Decision Support Systems, Infrastructure, Construction.

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Authors: Qiang Yang, Ping-An Du

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Group decision making with multiple attribute has attracted intensive concern in the decision analysis area. This paper assumes that the contributions of all the decision makers (DMs) are not equal to the decision process based on different knowledge and experience in group setting. The aim of this paper is to develop a novel approach to determine weights of DMs in the group decision making problems. In this paper, the weights of DMs are determined in the group decision environment via angle cosine and projection method. First of all, the average decision of all individual decisions is defined as the ideal decision. After that, we define the weight of each decision maker (DM) by aggregating the angle cosine and projection between individual decision and ideal decision with associated direction indicator μ. By using the weights of DMs, all individual decisions are aggregated into a collective decision. Further, the preference order of alternatives is ranked in accordance with the overall row value of collective decision. Finally, an example in a chemical company is provided to illustrate the developed approach.

Keywords: Angel cosine, ideal decision, projection method, weights of decision makers.

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Authors: Kassem Saleh

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Decision Support System (DSS) are interactive software systems that are built to assist the management of an organization in the decision making process when faced with nonroutine problems in a specific application domain. Non-functional requirements (NFRs) for a DSS deal with the desirable qualities and restrictions that the DSS functionalities must satisfy. Unlike the functional requirements, which are tangible functionalities provided by the DSS, NFRs are often hidden and transparent to DSS users but affect the quality of the provided functionalities. NFRs are often overlooked or added later to the system in an ad hoc manner, leading to a poor overall quality of the system. In this paper, we discuss the development of NFRs as part of the requirements engineering phase of the system development life cycle of DSSs. To help eliciting NFRs, we provide a comprehensive taxonomy of NFRs for DSSs.

Keywords: Decision support system, Development, Elicitation, Non-functional requirements, Taxonomy

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Authors: Masood Karamoozian, Zhang Hong

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The necessity and complexity of the decision-making process and the interference of the various factors to make decisions and consider all the relevant factors in a problem are very obvious nowadays. Hence, researchers show their interest in multi-criteria decision-making methods. In this research, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods of multi-criteria decision-making have been used to solve the problem of optimal construction systems. Systems being evaluated in this problem include; Light Steel Frames (LSF), a case study of designs by Zhang Hong studio in the Southeast University of Nanjing, Insulating Concrete Form (ICF), Ordinary Construction System (OCS), and Precast Concrete System (PRCS) as another case study designs in Zhang Hong studio in the Southeast University of Nanjing. Crowdsourcing was done by using a questionnaire at the sample level (200 people). Questionnaires were distributed among experts in university centers and conferences. According to the results of the research, the use of different methods of decision-making led to relatively the same results. In this way, with the use of all three multi-criteria decision-making methods mentioned above, the PRCS was in the first rank, and the LSF system ranked second. Also, the PRCS, in terms of performance standards and economics, was ranked first, and the LSF system was allocated the first rank in terms of environmental standards.

Keywords: Multi-criteria decision making, AHP, SAW, TOPSIS.

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Authors: Manirath Wongsim, Pawornprat Hongsakon

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Information Quality (IQ) has become a critical, strategic issue in Accounting Information Systems (AIS) adoption. In order to implement AIS adoption successfully, it is important to consider the quality of information use throughout the adoption process, which seriously impacts the effectiveness of AIS adoption practice and the optimisation of AIS adoption decisions. There is a growing need for research to provide insights into issues and solutions related to IQ in AIS adoption. The need for an integrated approach to improve IQ in AIS adoption, as well as the unique characteristics of accounting data, demands an AIS adoption specific IQ framework. This research aims to explore ways of managing information quality and AIS adoption to investigate the relationship between the IQ issues and AIS adoption process. This study has led to the development of a framework for understanding IQ management in AIS adoption. This research was done on 44 respondents as ten organisations from manufacturing firms in Thailand. The findings of the research’s empirical evidence suggest that IQ dimensions in AIS adoption to provide assistance in all process of decision making. This research provides empirical evidence that information quality of AIS adoption affect decision making and suggests that these variables should be considered in adopting AIS in order to improve the effectiveness of AIS.

Keywords: Information quality, information quality dimensions, accounting information systems, accounting Information system adoption.

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Authors: R. Ferdous

Abstract:

Power, responsibility sharing, and democratic decision-making are the central ethos to co-management. It is assumed that involving local community in the decision-making process can create a sense of ownership and responsibility of that community and motivate the community towards collective action. But this paper demonstrated that the process to involve local community is not simple and straightforward as it is influenced by structural aspects, power relations among the actors, and social embedded institutions. These factors shape the process in that way who will participate, how they will participate and how the local community maneuvers their agency in the decision-making process. To grasp the complexities that materialize in the process of participation and to understand the inclusionary and exclusionary nature of participation, this paper examines the subjective understanding of different stakeholders concerning participation and furthermore observes the enabling or constraining factors that affect the community to exercise their agency.

Keywords: Participation, social embeddedness, power, structure.

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Authors: Musarrat Jabeen

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Thoughtful intelligence offers a sustainable position to enhance the influence of decision-makers. Thoughtful Intelligence implies the understanding to realize the impact of one’s thoughts, words and actions on the survival, dignity and development of the individuals, groups and nations. Thoughtful intelligence has received minimal consideration in the area of Decision Support Systems, with an end goal to evaluate the quantity of knowledge and its viability. This pattern degraded the imbibed contribution of thoughtful intelligence required for sustainable decision making. Given the concern, this paper concentrates on the question: How to present a model of Thoughtful Decision Support System (TDSS)? The aim of this paper is to appreciate the concepts of thoughtful intelligence and insinuate a Decision Support System based on thoughtful intelligence. Thoughtful intelligence includes three dynamic competencies: i) Realization about long term impacts of decisions that are made in a specific time and space, ii) A great sense of taking actions, iii) Intense interconnectivity with people and nature and; seven associate competencies, of Righteousness, Purposefulness, Understanding, Contemplation, Sincerity, Mindfulness, and Nurturing. The study utilizes two methods: Focused group discussion to count prevailing Decision Support Systems; 70% results of focus group discussions found six decision support systems and the positive inexistence of thoughtful intelligence among decision support systems regarding sustainable decision making. Delphi focused on defining thoughtful intelligence to model (TDSS). 65% results helped to conceptualize (definition and description) of thoughtful intelligence. TDSS is offered here as an addition in the decision making literature. The clients are top leaders.

Keywords: Thoughtful intelligence, Sustainable decision making, Thoughtful decision support system.

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Authors: E. Bruno, F. Lacarbonara, M. C. Placentino, D. Gramegna

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Environmental decision making, particularly about hazardous waste management, is inherently exposed to a high potential conflict, principally because of the trade-off between sociopolitical, environmental, health and economic factors. The need to plan complex contexts has led to an increasing request for decision analytic techniques as support for the decision process. In this work, alternative systems of asbestos-containing waste management (ACW) in Puglia (Southern Italy) were explored by a multi-criteria decision analysis. In particular, through Analytic Hierarchy Process five alternatives management have been compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency, taking into account environmental, health and socio-economic aspects. A separated valuation has been performed for different temporal scale. For short period results showed a narrow deviation between the disposal alternatives “mono-material landfill in public quarry" and “dedicate cells in existing landfill", with the best performance of the first one. While for long period “treatment plant to eliminate hazard from asbestos-containing waste" was prevalent, although high energy demand required to achieve the change of crystalline structure. A comparison with results from a participative approach in valuation process might be considered as future development of method application to ACW management.

Keywords: Multi-criteria decision analysis, Hazardous wastemanagement, Asbestos.

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Authors: Samsiah Abdul Razak, Daud Mohamad

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Molodstov-s soft sets theory was originally proposed as general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty problems. The matrix form has been introduced in soft set and some of its properties have been discussed. However, the formulation of soft matrix in group decision making problem only with equal importance weights of criteria, which does not show the true opinion of decision maker on each criteria. The aim of this paper is to propose a method for solving group decision making problem incorporating the importance of criteria by using soft matrices in a more objective manner. The weight of each criterion is calculated by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. An example of house selection process is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Soft set, Soft Matrix, Soft max-min decision making (SMmDM), Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

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Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus, Isnanto, Annisa Nugraheni, Farida Rahmawati

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A Negotiation Support is required on a value-based decision to enable each stakeholder to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with the other stakeholders. This study demonstrates a process of negotiation support model for selection of a building system from value-based design perspective. The perspective is based on comparison of function and cost of a building system. Multi criteria decision techniques were applied to determine the relative value of the alternative solutions for performing the function. A satisfying option game theory are applied to the criteria of value-based decision which are LCC (life cycle cost) and function based FAST. The results demonstrate a negotiation process to select priorities of a building system. The support model can be extended to an automated negotiation by combining value based decision method, group decision and negotiation support.

Keywords: NSS, Value-based, Decision, Construction.

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Authors: Abdallah A. Hlayel

Abstract:

Operations research science (OR) deals with good success in developing and applying scientific methods for problem solving and decision-making. However, by using OR techniques, we can enhance the use of computer decision support systems to achieve optimal management for institutions. OR applies comprehensive analysis including all factors that effect on it and builds mathematical modeling to solve business or organizational problems. In addition, it improves decision-making and uses available resources efficiently. The adoption of OR by universities would definitely contributes to the development and enhancement of the performance of OR techniques. This paper provides an understanding of the structures, approaches and models of OR in problem solving and decisionmaking.

Keywords: Best candidates' method, decision making, decision support system, operations research.

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Authors: Oscar Fernandez-Flores, Tony Speer, Rodney Day

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This paper identifies five key design characteristics of production scheduling software systems in printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing. The authors consider that, in addition to an effective scheduling engine, a scheduling system should be able to process a preventative maintenance calendar, to give the user the flexibility to handle data using a variety of electronic sources, to run simulations to support decision-making, and to have simple and customisable graphical user interfaces. These design considerations were the result of a review of academic literature, the evaluation of commercial applications and a compilation of requirements of a PCB manufacturer. It was found that, from those systems that were evaluated, those that effectively addressed all five characteristics outlined in this paper were the most robust of all and could be used in PCB manufacturing.

Keywords: Decision-making, ERP, PCB, scheduling.

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Authors: B. Bakır, İ. Batmaz, F. A. Güntürkün, İ. A. İpekçi, G. Köksal, N. E. Özdemirel

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The main aim of this study is to identify the most influential variables that cause defects on the items produced by a casting company located in Turkey. To this end, one of the items produced by the company with high defective percentage rates is selected. Two approaches-the regression analysis and decision treesare used to model the relationship between process parameters and defect types. Although logistic regression models failed, decision tree model gives meaningful results. Based on these results, it can be claimed that the decision tree approach is a promising technique for determining the most important process variables.

Keywords: Casting industry, decision tree algorithm C5.0, logistic regression, quality improvement.

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Authors: Min Min Swe Zin

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This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.

Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.

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