Search results for: change point estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4179

Search results for: change point estimation

3909 Effects of Different Meteorological Variables on Reference Evapotranspiration Modeling: Application of Principal Component Analysis

Authors: Akinola Ikudayisi, Josiah Adeyemo

Abstract:

The correct estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETₒ) is required for effective irrigation water resources planning and management. However, there are some variables that must be considered while estimating and modeling ETₒ. This study therefore determines the multivariate analysis of correlated variables involved in the estimation and modeling of ETₒ at Vaalharts irrigation scheme (VIS) in South Africa using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique. Weather and meteorological data between 1994 and 2014 were obtained both from South African Weather Service (SAWS) and Agricultural Research Council (ARC) in South Africa for this study. Average monthly data of minimum and maximum temperature (°C), rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), and wind speed (m/s) were the inputs to the PCA-based model, while ETₒ is the output. PCA technique was adopted to extract the most important information from the dataset and also to analyze the relationship between the five variables and ETₒ. This is to determine the most significant variables affecting ETₒ estimation at VIS. From the model performances, two principal components with a variance of 82.7% were retained after the eigenvector extraction. The results of the two principal components were compared and the model output shows that minimum temperature, maximum temperature and windspeed are the most important variables in ETₒ estimation and modeling at VIS. In order words, ETₒ increases with temperature and windspeed. Other variables such as rainfall and relative humidity are less important and cannot be used to provide enough information about ETₒ estimation at VIS. The outcome of this study has helped to reduce input variable dimensionality from five to the three most significant variables in ETₒ modelling at VIS, South Africa.

Keywords: Irrigation, principal component analysis, reference evapotranspiration, Vaalharts.

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3908 Geographic Profiling Based on Multi-point Centrography with K-means Clustering

Authors: Jiaji Zhou, Le Liang, Long Chen

Abstract:

Geographic Profiling has successfully assisted investigations for serial crimes. Considering the multi-cluster feature of serial criminal spots, we propose a Multi-point Centrography model as a natural extension of Single-point Centrography for geographic profiling. K-means clustering is first performed on the data samples and then Single-point Centrography is adopted to derive a probability distribution on each cluster. Finally, a weighted combinations of each distribution is formed to make next-crime spot prediction. Experimental study on real cases demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Keywords: Geographic profiling, Centrography model, K-means algorithm

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3907 Mathematical Programming on Multivariate Calibration Estimation in Stratified Sampling

Authors: Dinesh Rao, M.G.M. Khan, Sabiha Khan

Abstract:

Calibration estimation is a method of adjusting the original design weights to improve the survey estimates by using auxiliary information such as the known population total (or mean) of the auxiliary variables. A calibration estimator uses calibrated weights that are determined to minimize a given distance measure to the original design weights while satisfying a set of constraints related to the auxiliary information. In this paper, we propose a new multivariate calibration estimator for the population mean in the stratified sampling design, which incorporates information available for more than one auxiliary variable. The problem of determining the optimum calibrated weights is formulated as a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) that is solved using the Lagrange multiplier technique.

Keywords: Calibration estimation, Stratified sampling, Multivariate auxiliary information, Mathematical programming problem, Lagrange multiplier technique.

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3906 Unsteady Reversed Stagnation-Point Flow over a Flat Plate

Authors: Vai Kuong Sin, Chon Kit Chio

Abstract:

This paper investigates the nature of the development of two-dimensional laminar flow of an incompressible fluid at the reversed stagnation-point. ". In this study, we revisit the problem of reversed stagnation-point flow over a flat plate. Proudman and Johnson (1962) first studied the flow and obtained an asymptotic solution by neglecting the viscous terms. This is no true in neglecting the viscous terms within the total flow field. In particular it is pointed out that for a plate impulsively accelerated from rest to a constant velocity V0 that a similarity solution to the self-similar ODE is obtained which is noteworthy completely analytical.

Keywords: reversed stagnation-point flow, similarity solutions, analytical solution, numerical solution

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3905 Comparison of Different Techniques to Estimate Surface Soil Moisture

Authors: S. Farid F. Mojtahedi, Ali Khosravi, Behnaz Naeimian, S. Adel A. Hosseini

Abstract:

Land subsidence is a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the land surface from changes that take place underground. There are different causes of land subsidence; most notably, ground-water overdraft and severe weather conditions. Subsidence of the land surface due to ground water overdraft is caused by an increase in the intergranular pressure in unconsolidated aquifers, which results in a loss of buoyancy of solid particles in the zone dewatered by the falling water table and accordingly compaction of the aquifer. On the other hand, exploitation of underground water may result in significant changes in degree of saturation of soil layers above the water table, increasing the effective stress in these layers, and considerable soil settlements. This study focuses on estimation of soil moisture at surface using different methods. Specifically, different methods for the estimation of moisture content at the soil surface, as an important term to solve Richard’s equation and estimate soil moisture profile are presented, and their results are discussed through comparison with field measurements obtained from Yanco1 station in south-eastern Australia. Surface soil moisture is not easy to measure at the spatial scale of a catchment. Due to the heterogeneity of soil type, land use, and topography, surface soil moisture may change considerably in space and time.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, empirical method, remote sensing, surface soil moisture, unsaturated soil.

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3904 Fuzzy Estimation of Parameters in Statistical Models

Authors: A. Falsafain, S. M. Taheri, M. Mashinchi

Abstract:

Using a set of confidence intervals, we develop a common approach, to construct a fuzzy set as an estimator for unknown parameters in statistical models. We investigate a method to derive the explicit and unique membership function of such fuzzy estimators. The proposed method has been used to derive the fuzzy estimators of the parameters of a Normal distribution and some functions of parameters of two Normal distributions, as well as the parameters of the Exponential and Poisson distributions.

Keywords: Confidence interval. Fuzzy number. Fuzzy estimation.

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3903 Analysis of Cost Estimation and Payment Systems for Consultant Contracts in the US, Japan, China and the UK

Authors: Shih-Hsu Wang, Yuan-Yuan Cheng, Ming-Tsung Lee, Wei-Chih Wang

Abstract:

Determining reasonable fees is the main objective of designing the cost estimation and payment systems for consultant contracts. However, project clients utilize different cost estimation and payment systems because of their varying views on the reasonableness of consultant fees. This study reviews the cost estimation and payment systems of consultant contracts for five countries, including the US (Washington State Department of Transportation), Japan (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism), China (Engineering Design Charging Standard) and UK (Her Majesty's Treasure). Specifically, this work investigates the budgeting process, contractor selection method, contractual price negotiation process, cost review, and cost-control concept of the systems used in these countries. The main finding indicates that that project client-s view on whether the fee is high will affect the way he controls it. In the US, the fee is commonly considered to be high. As a result, stringent auditing system (low flexibility given to the consultant) is then applied. In the UK, the fee is viewed to be low by comparing it to the total life-cycle project cost. Thus, a system that has high flexibility in budgeting and cost reviewing is given to the consultant. In terms of the flexibility allowed for the consultant, the systems applied in Japan and China fall between those of the US and UK. Both the US and UK systems are helpful in determining a reasonable fee. However, in the US system, rigid auditing standards must be established and additional cost-audit manpower is required. In the UK system, sufficient historical cost data should be needed to evaluate the reasonableness of the consultant-s proposed fee

Keywords: Consultant Services, Cost Estimation and Payment System, Payment Flexibility, Cost-control Concept

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3902 A Review on Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture in Southeast Nigeria

Authors: Jane O. Munonye

Abstract:

Climate change has both negative and positive effects in agricultural production. For agriculture to be sustainable in adverse climate change condition, some natural measures are needed. The issue is to produce more food with available natural resources and reduce the contribution of agriculture to climate change. The study reviewed climate change and sustainable agriculture in southeast Nigeria. Data from the study were from secondary sources. Ten scientific papers were consulted and data for the review were collected from three. The objectives of the paper were as follows: to review the effect of climate change on one major arable crop in southeast Nigeria (yam; Dioscorea rotundata); evident of climate change impact and methods for sustainable agricultural production in adverse weather condition. Some climatic parameter as sunshine, relative humidity and rainfall have negative relationship with yam production and significant at 10% probability. Crop production was predicted to decline by 25% per hectare by 2060 while livestock production has increased the incidence of diseases and pathogens as the major effect to agriculture. Methods for sustainable agriculture and damage of natural resources by climate change were highlighted. Agriculture needs to be transformed as climate changes to enable the sector to be sustainable. There should be a policy in place to facilitate the integration of sustainability in Nigeria agriculture.

Keywords: Agriculture, climate change, sustainability, yam.

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3901 Learning Factory for Changeability

Authors: Dennis Gossmann, Habil Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

Amongst the consistently fluctuating conditions prevailing today, changeability represents a strategic key factor for a manufacturing company to achieve success on the international markets. In order to cope with turbulences and the increasing level of incalculability, not only the flexible design of production systems but in particular the employee as enabler of change provide the focus here. It is important to enable employees from manufacturing companies to participate actively in change events and in change decisions. To this end, the learning factory has been created, which is intended to serve the development of change-promoting competences and the sensitization of employees for the necessity of changes.

Keywords: Changeability, human resources, learning factory.

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3900 Quartic Nonpolynomial Spline Solutions for Third Order Two-Point Boundary Value Problem

Authors: Talaat S. El-Danaf

Abstract:

In this paper, we develop quartic nonpolynomial spline method for the numerical solution of third order two point boundary value problems. It is shown that the new method gives approximations, which are better than those produced by other spline methods. Convergence analysis of the method is discussed through standard procedures. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of the novel method.

Keywords: Quartic nonpolynomial spline, Two-point boundary value problem.

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3899 Modeling of Sensitivity for SPR Biosensors- New Aspects

Authors: Volodymyr Chegel

Abstract:

The computer modeling is carried out for parameter of sensitivity of optoelectronic chemical and biosensors, using phenomena of surface plasmon resonance (SPR). The physical model of SPR-sensor-s is described with (or without) of modifications of sensitive gold film surface by a dielectric layer. The variants of increasing of sensitivity for SPR-biosensors, constructed on the principle gold – dielectric – biomolecular layer are considered. Two methods of mathematical treatment of SPR-curve are compared – traditional, with estimation of sensor-s response as shift of the SPRcurve minimum and proposed, for system with dielectric layer, using calculating of the derivative in the point of SPR-curve half-width.

Keywords: Surface Plasmon Resonance, modeling, sensitivity, biosensor

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3898 Real Time Speed Estimation of Vehicles

Authors: Azhar Hussain, Kashif Shahzad, Chunming Tang

Abstract:

this paper gives a novel approach towards real-time speed estimation of multiple traffic vehicles using fuzzy logic and image processing techniques with proper arrangement of camera parameters. The described algorithm consists of several important steps. First, the background is estimated by computing median over time window of specific frames. Second, the foreground is extracted using fuzzy similarity approach (FSA) between estimated background pixels and the current frame pixels containing foreground and background. Third, the traffic lanes are divided into two parts for both direction vehicles for parallel processing. Finally, the speeds of vehicles are estimated by Maximum a Posterior Probability (MAP) estimator. True ground speed is determined by utilizing infrared sensors for three different vehicles and the results are compared to the proposed algorithm with an accuracy of ± 0.74 kmph.

Keywords: Defuzzification, Fuzzy similarity approach, lane cropping, Maximum a Posterior Probability (MAP) estimator, Speed estimation

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3897 Psychopathic Disorders and Judges Sentencing: Can Neurosciences Change This Aggravating Factor in a Mitigating Factor?

Authors: Kevin Moustapha

Abstract:

Psychopathic disorders are taking an important part in judge sentencing, especially in Canada. First, we will see how this phenomenon can be illustrated by the high proportion of psychopath offenders incarcerated in North American prisons. Many decisions in Canadians courtrooms seem to point out that psychopathy is often used as a strong argument by the judges to preserve public safety. The fact that psychopathy is often associated with violence, recklessness and recidivism, could explain why many judges consider psychopathic disorders as an aggravating factor. Generally, the judge reasoning is based on Article 753 of Canadian Criminal Code related to dangerous offenders, which is used for individuals who show a pattern of repetitive and persistent aggressive behaviour. Then we will show how, with cognitive neurosciences, the psychopath’s situation in courtrooms would probably change. Cerebral imaging and news data provided by the neurosciences show that emotional and volitional functions in psychopath’s brains are impaired. Understanding these new issues could enable some judges to recognize psychopathic disorders as a mitigating factor. Finally, two important questions ought to be raised in this article: can exploring psychopaths ‘brains really change the judge sentencing in Canadian courtrooms? If yes, can judges consider psychopathy more as a mitigating factor than an aggravating factor?

Keywords: Criminal law, judges sentencing, neurosciences, psychopathy.

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3896 Development of Vibration Sensor with Wide Frequency Range Based on Condenser Microphone -Estimation System for Flow Rate in Water Pipes-

Authors: Hironori Kakuta, Kajiro Watanabe, Yosuke Kurihara

Abstract:

Water leakage is a serious problem in the maintenance of a waterworks facility. Monitoring the water flow rate is one way to locate leakage. However, conventional flowmeters such as the wet-type flowmeter and the clamp-on type ultrasonic flowmeter require additional construction for their installation and are therefore quite expensive. This paper proposes a novel estimation system for the flow rate in a water pipeline, which employs a vibration sensor. This assembly can be attached to any water pipeline without the need for additional high-cost construction. The vibration sensor is designed based on a condenser microphone. This sensor detects vibration caused by water flowing through a pipeline. It is possible to estimate the water flow rate by measuring the amplitude of the output signal from the vibration sensor. We confirmed the validity of the proposed sensing system experimentally.

Keywords: Condenser microphone, Flow rate estimation, Piping vibration, Water pipe.

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3895 Joint Adaptive Block Matching Search (JABMS) Algorithm

Authors: V.K.Ananthashayana, Pushpa.M.K

Abstract:

In this paper a new Joint Adaptive Block Matching Search (JABMS) algorithm is proposed to generate motion vector and search a best match macro block by classifying the motion vector movement based on prediction error. Diamond Search (DS) algorithm generates high estimation accuracy when motion vector is small and Adaptive Rood Pattern Search (ARPS) algorithm can handle large motion vector but is not very accurate. The proposed JABMS algorithm which is capable of considering both small and large motions gives improved estimation accuracy and the computational cost is reduced by 15.2 times compared with Exhaustive Search (ES) algorithm and is 1.3 times less compared with Diamond search algorithm.

Keywords: Adaptive rood pattern search, Block matching, Diamond search, Joint Adaptive search, Motion estimation.

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3894 Stature Estimation Based On Lower Limb Dimensions in the Malaysian Population

Authors: F. M. Nor, N. Abdullah, Al-M. Mustapa, L. Q. Wen, N. A. Faisal, D. A. A. Ahmad Nazari

Abstract:

Estimation of stature is an important step in developing a biological profile for human identification. It may provide a valuable indicator for unknown individual in a population. The aim of this study was to analyses the relationship between stature and lower limb dimensions in the Malaysian population. The sample comprised 100 corpses, which included 69 males and 31 females between age ranges of 20 to 90 years old. The parameters measured were stature, thigh length, lower leg length, leg length, foot length, foot height and foot breadth. Results showed that mean values in males were significantly higher than those in females (P < 0.05). There were significant correlations between lower limb dimensions and stature. Cross-validation of the equation on 100 individuals showed close approximation between known stature and estimated stature. It was concluded that lower limb dimensions were useful for estimation of stature, which should be validated in future studies. 

Keywords: Forensic anthropology population data, lower leg length, Malaysian, stature.

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3893 Positive Solutions for Three-Point Boundary Value Problems of Third-Order Nonlinear Singular Differential Equations in Banach Space

Authors: Li Xiguang

Abstract:

In this paper, by constructing a special set and utilizing fixed point index theory, we study the existence of solution for singular differential equation in Banach space, which improved and generalize the result of related paper.

Keywords: Banach space, cone, fixed point index, singular differential equation.

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3892 Estimation of OPC, Fly Ash and Slag Contents in Blended and Composite Cements by Selective Dissolution Method

Authors: Suresh Palla, Suresh Vanguri, Anitha, B. N. Mohapatra

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of the study on the estimation of fly ash, slag and cement contents in blended and composite cements by selective dissolution method. Types of cement samples investigated include Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) with fly ash as performance improver, OPC with slag as performance improver, Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC), Portland Slag Cement (PSC) and composite cement confirming to respective Indian Standards. Slag and OPC contents in PSC were estimated by selectively dissolving OPC in stage 1 and selectively dissolving slag in stage 2. In the case of composite cement sample, the percentage of cement, slag and fly ash were estimated systematically by selective dissolution of cement, slag and fly ash in three stages. In the first stage, cement is dissolved and separated by leaving the residue of slag and fly ash, designated as R1. The second stage involves gravimetric estimation of fractions of OPC, residue and selective dissolution of fly ash and slag contents. Fly ash content, R2 was estimated through gravimetric analysis. Thereafter, the difference between the R1 and R2 is considered as slag content. The obtained results of cement, fly ash and slag using selective dissolution method showed 10% of standard deviation with the corresponding percentage of respective constituents. The results suggest that this selective dissolution method can be successfully used for estimation of OPC and Supplementary Cementitious material (SCM) contents in different types of cements.

Keywords: Selective dissolution method, fly ash, Ground Granulated blast furnace slag, EDTA.

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3891 Unsteady Free Convection Flow Over a Three-Dimensional Stagnation Point With Internal Heat Generation or Absorption

Authors: Mohd Ariff Admon, Abdul Rahman Mohd Kasim, Sharidan Shafie

Abstract:

This paper considers the effect of heat generation proportional l to (T - T∞ )p , where T is the local temperature and T∞ is the ambient temperature, in unsteady free convection flow near the stagnation point region of a three-dimensional body. The fluid is considered in an ambient fluid under the assumption of a step change in the surface temperature of the body. The non-linear coupled partial differential equations governing the free convection flow are solved numerically using an implicit finite-difference method for different values of the governing parameters entering these equations. The results for the flow and heat characteristics when p ≤ 2 show that the transition from the initial unsteady-state flow to the final steadystate flow takes place smoothly. The behavior of the flow is seen strongly depend on the exponent p.

Keywords: Free convection, Boundary layer flow, Stagnationpoint, Heat generation

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3890 The Study of the Intelligent Fuzzy Weighted Input Estimation Method Combined with the Experiment Verification for the Multilayer Materials

Authors: Ming-Hui Lee, Tsung-Chien Chen, Tsu-Ping Yu, Horng-Yuan Jang

Abstract:

The innovative intelligent fuzzy weighted input estimation method (FWIEM) can be applied to the inverse heat transfer conduction problem (IHCP) to estimate the unknown time-varying heat flux of the multilayer materials as presented in this paper. The feasibility of this method can be verified by adopting the temperature measurement experiment. The experiment modular may be designed by using the copper sample which is stacked up 4 aluminum samples with different thicknesses. Furthermore, the bottoms of copper samples are heated by applying the standard heat source, and the temperatures on the tops of aluminum are measured by using the thermocouples. The temperature measurements are then regarded as the inputs into the presented method to estimate the heat flux in the bottoms of copper samples. The influence on the estimation caused by the temperature measurement of the sample with different thickness, the processing noise covariance Q, the weighting factor γ , the sampling time interval Δt , and the space discrete interval Δx , will be investigated by utilizing the experiment verification. The results show that this method is efficient and robust to estimate the unknown time-varying heat input of the multilayer materials.

Keywords: Multilayer Materials, Input Estimation Method, IHCP, Heat Flux.

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3889 Traditional Ecological Knowledge System as Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Mountain Community of Tangkhul Tribe in Northeast India

Authors: Tuisem Shimrah

Abstract:

One general agreement on climate change is that its causes may be local but the effects are global. Indigenous people are subscribed to “low-carbon” traditional ways of life and as such they have contributed little to causes of climate change. On the contrary they are the most adversely affected by climate change due to their dependence on surrounding rich biological wealth as a source of their livelihood, health care, entertainment and cultural activities This paper deals with the results of the investigation of various adaptation strategies adopted to combat climate change by traditional community. The result shows effective ways of application of traditional knowledge and wisdom applied by Tangkhul traditional community at local and community level in remote areas in Northeast India. Four adaptation measures are being presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, Tangkhul, traditional community, policy, Northeast India.

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3888 Performance Evaluation of Complex Electrical Bio-impedance from V/I Four-electrode Measurements

Authors: Towfeeq Fairooz, Salim Istyaq

Abstract:

The passive electrical properties of a tissue depends on the intrinsic constituents and its structure, therefore by measuring the complex electrical impedance of the tissue it might be possible to obtain indicators of the tissue state or physiological activity [1]. Complete bio-impedance information relative to physiology and pathology of a human body and functional states of the body tissue or organs can be extracted by using a technique containing a fourelectrode measurement setup. This work presents the estimation measurement setup based on the four-electrode technique. First, the complex impedance is estimated by three different estimation techniques: Fourier, Sine Correlation and Digital De-convolution and then estimation errors for the magnitude, phase, reactance and resistance are calculated and analyzed for different levels of disturbances in the observations. The absolute values of relative errors are plotted and the graphical performance of each technique is compared.

Keywords: Electrical Impedance, Fast Fourier Transform, Additive White Gaussian Noise, Total Least Square, Digital De-Convolution, Sine-Correlation.

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3887 Development of a Catchment Water Quality Model for Continuous Simulations of Pollutants Build-up and Wash-off

Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Dr. Monzur Imteaz, Dr. Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Prof. Abdallah Shanableh

Abstract:

Estimation of runoff water quality parameters is required to determine appropriate water quality management options. Various models are used to estimate runoff water quality parameters. However, most models provide event-based estimates of water quality parameters for specific sites. The work presented in this paper describes the development of a model that continuously simulates the accumulation and wash-off of water quality pollutants in a catchment. The model allows estimation of pollutants build-up during dry periods and pollutants wash-off during storm events. The model was developed by integrating two individual models; rainfall-runoff model, and catchment water quality model. The rainfall-runoff model is based on the time-area runoff estimation method. The model allows users to estimate the time of concentration using a range of established methods. The model also allows estimation of the continuing runoff losses using any of the available estimation methods (i.e., constant, linearly varying or exponentially varying). Pollutants build-up in a catchment was represented by one of three pre-defined functions; power, exponential, or saturation. Similarly, pollutants wash-off was represented by one of three different functions; power, rating-curve, or exponential. The developed runoff water quality model was set-up to simulate the build-up and wash-off of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The application of the model was demonstrated using available runoff and TSS field data from road and roof surfaces in the Gold Coast, Australia. The model provided excellent representation of the field data demonstrating the simplicity yet effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Catchment, continuous pollutants build-up, pollutants wash-off, runoff, runoff water quality model.

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3886 Effect of Thermal Radiation on Temperature Variation in 2-D Stagnation-Point flow

Authors: Vai Kuong Sin

Abstract:

Non-isothermal stagnation-point flow with consideration of thermal radiation is studied numerically. A set of partial differential equations that governing the fluid flow and energy is converted into a set of ordinary differential equations which is solved by Runge-Kutta method with shooting algorithm. Dimensionless wall temperature gradient and temperature boundary layer thickness for different combinaton of values of Prandtl number Pr and radiation parameter NR are presented graphically. Analyses of results show that the presence of thermal radiation in the stagnation-point flow is to increase the temperature boundary layer thickness and decrease the dimensionless wall temperature gradient.

Keywords: Stagnation-point flow, Similarity solution, Thermal radiation.

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3885 Time-Derivative Estimation of Noisy Movie Data using Adaptive Control Theory

Authors: Soon-Hyun Park, Takami Matsuo

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive differentiator of sequential data based on the adaptive control theory. The algorithm is applied to detect moving objects by estimating a temporal gradient of sequential data at a specified pixel. We adopt two nonlinear intensity functions to reduce the influence of noises. The derivatives of the nonlinear intensity functions are estimated by an adaptive observer with σ-modification update law.

Keywords: Adaptive estimation, parameter adjustmentlaw, motion detection, temporal gradient, differential filter.

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3884 A Rule-based Approach for Anomaly Detection in Subscriber Usage Pattern

Authors: Rupesh K. Gopal, Saroj K. Meher

Abstract:

In this report we present a rule-based approach to detect anomalous telephone calls. The method described here uses subscriber usage CDR (call detail record) data sampled over two observation periods: study period and test period. The study period contains call records of customers- non-anomalous behaviour. Customers are first grouped according to their similar usage behaviour (like, average number of local calls per week, etc). For customers in each group, we develop a probabilistic model to describe their usage. Next, we use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. Then we determine thresholds by calculating acceptable change within a group. MLE is used on the data in the test period to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. These parameters are compared against thresholds. Any deviation beyond the threshold is used to raise an alarm. This method has the advantage of identifying local anomalies as compared to techniques which identify global anomalies. The method is tested for 90 days of study data and 10 days of test data of telecom customers. For medium to large deviations in the data in test window, the method is able to identify 90% of anomalous usage with less than 1% false alarm rate.

Keywords: Subscription fraud, fraud detection, anomalydetection, maximum likelihood estimation, rule based systems.

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3883 Bit Error Rate Monitoring for Automatic Bias Control of Quadrature Amplitude Modulators

Authors: Naji Ali Albakay, Abdulrahman Alothaim, Isa Barshushi

Abstract:

The most common quadrature amplitude modulator (QAM) applies two Mach-Zehnder Modulators (MZM) and one phase shifter to generate high order modulation format. The bias of MZM changes over time due to temperature, vibration, and aging factors. The change in the biasing causes distortion to the generated QAM signal which leads to deterioration of bit error rate (BER) performance. Therefore, it is critical to be able to lock MZM’s Q point to the required operating point for good performance. We propose a technique for automatic bias control (ABC) of QAM transmitter using BER measurements and gradient descent optimization algorithm. The proposed technique is attractive because it uses the pertinent metric, BER, which compensates for bias drifting independently from other system variations such as laser source output power. The proposed scheme performance and its operating principles are simulated using OptiSystem simulation software for 4-QAM and 16-QAM transmitters.

Keywords: Automatic bias control, optical fiber communication, optical modulation, optical devices.

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3882 Bi-linear Complementarity Problem

Authors: Chao Wang, Ting-Zhu Huang Chen Jia

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new linear complementarity problem named as bi-linear complementarity problem (BLCP) and the method for solving BLCP. In addition, the algorithm for error estimation of BLCP is also given. Numerical experiments show that the algorithm is efficient.

Keywords: Bi-linear complementarity problem, Linear complementarity problem, Extended linear complementarity problem, Error estimation, P-matrix, M-matrix.

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3881 Order Penetration Point Location using Fuzzy Quadratic Programming

Authors: Hamed Rafiei, Masoud Rabbani

Abstract:

This paper addresses one of the most important issues have been considered in hybrid MTS/MTO production environments. To cope with the problem, a mathematical programming model is applied from a tactical point of view. The model is converted to a fuzzy goal programming model, because a degree of uncertainty is involved in hybrid MTS/MTO context. Finally, application of the proposed model in an industrial center is reported and the results prove the validity of the model.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets theory, Hybrid MTS/MTO, Order penetration point, Quadratic programming.

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3880 Rapid Determination of Biochemical Oxygen Demand

Authors: Mayur Milan Kale, Indu Mehrotra

Abstract:

Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) is a measure of the oxygen used in bacteria mediated oxidation of organic substances in water and wastewater. Theoretically an infinite time is required for complete biochemical oxidation of organic matter, but the measurement is made over 5-days at 20 0C or 3-days at 27 0C test period with or without dilution. Researchers have worked to further reduce the time of measurement. The objective of this paper is to review advancement made in BOD measurement primarily to minimize the time and negate the measurement difficulties. Survey of literature review in four such techniques namely BOD-BARTTM, Biosensors, Ferricyanidemediated approach, luminous bacterial immobilized chip method. Basic principle, method of determination, data validation and their advantage and disadvantages have been incorporated of each of the methods. In the BOD-BARTTM method the time lag is calculated for the system to change from oxidative to reductive state. BIOSENSORS are the biological sensing element with a transducer which produces a signal proportional to the analyte concentration. Microbial species has its metabolic deficiencies. Co-immobilization of bacteria using sol-gel biosensor increases the range of substrate. In ferricyanidemediated approach, ferricyanide has been used as e-acceptor instead of oxygen. In Luminous bacterial cells-immobilized chip method, bacterial bioluminescence which is caused by lux genes was observed. Physiological responses is measured and correlated to BOD due to reduction or emission. There is a scope to further probe into the rapid estimation of BOD.

Keywords: BOD, Four methods, Rapid estimation

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