Search results for: Statistical models and Timed automata

Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile

Abstract:

Industrial end users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both Machine Learning and First Principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed from breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems and humans – including asset maintenance operations – in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.

Keywords: Degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning.

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Authors: M. K. Pradhan, C. K. Biswas,

Abstract:

In the current research, neuro-fuzzy model and regression model was developed to predict Material Removal Rate in Electrical Discharge Machining process for AISI D2 tool steel with copper electrode. Extensive experiments were conducted with various levels of discharge current, pulse duration and duty cycle. The experimental data are split into two sets, one for training and the other for validation of the model. The training data were used to develop the above models and the test data, which was not used earlier to develop these models were used for validation the models. Subsequently, the models are compared. It was found that the predicted and experimental results were in good agreement and the coefficients of correlation were found to be 0.999 and 0.974 for neuro fuzzy and regression model respectively

Keywords: Electrical discharge machining, material removal rate, neuro-fuzzy model, regression model, mountain clustering.

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Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed

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Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.

Keywords: Roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement.

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Authors: Ahmed El Oualkadi, Abdellah Ait Ouahman

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This paper discusses a systematic design of a Σ-Δ fractional-N Phase-Locked Loop based on HDL behavioral modeling. The proposed design consists in describing the mixed behavior of this PLL architecture starting from the specifications of each building block. The HDL models of critical PLL blocks have been described in VHDL-AMS to predict the different specifications of the PLL. The effect of different noise sources has been efficiently introduced to study the PLL system performances. The obtained results are compared with transistor-level simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed models for wireless applications in the frequency range around 2.45 GHz.

Keywords: Phase-locked loop, frequency synthesizer, fractional-N PLL, Σ-Δ modulator, HDL models

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Authors: Jan Sindelar

Abstract:

The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming

Abstract:

The present work describes a computational study of aerodynamic characteristics of GLC305 airfoil clean and with 16.7 min ice shape (rime 212) and 22.5 min ice shape (glaze 944).The performance of turbulence models SA, Kε, Kω Std, and Kω SST model are observed against experimental flow fields at different Mach numbers 0.12, 0.21, 0.28 in a range of Reynolds numbers 3x106, 6x106, and 10.5x106 on clean and iced aircraft airfoil GLC305. Numerical predictions include lift, drag and pitching moment coefficients at different Mach numbers and at different angle of attacks were done. Accuracy of solutions with respect to the effects of turbulence models, variation of Mach number, initial conditions, grid resolution and grid spacing near the wall made the study much sensitive. Navier Stokes equation based computational technique is used. Results are very close to the experimental results. It has seen that SA and SST models are more efficient than Kε and Kω standard in under study problem.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, Airfoil GLC305, Iced Airfoil, Turbulence Model

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present, propose and examine additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions. Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecast , Fuzzy membership functions, Smoothingtransition, Time-series

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Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi

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The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.

Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.

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Authors: Omer Rashid, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Axel Panning, Bernd Michaelis

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It is hard to percept the interaction process with machines when visual information is not available. In this paper, we have addressed this issue to provide interaction through visual techniques. Posture recognition is done for American Sign Language to recognize static alphabets and numbers. 3D information is exploited to obtain segmentation of hands and face using normal Gaussian distribution and depth information. Features for posture recognition are computed using statistical and geometrical properties which are translation, rotation and scale invariant. Hu-Moment as statistical features and; circularity and rectangularity as geometrical features are incorporated to build the feature vectors. These feature vectors are used to train SVM for classification that recognizes static alphabets and numbers. For the alphabets, curvature analysis is carried out to reduce the misclassifications. The experimental results show that proposed system recognizes posture symbols by achieving recognition rate of 98.65% and 98.6% for ASL alphabets and numbers respectively.

Keywords: Feature Extraction, Posture Recognition, Pattern Recognition, Application.

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Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

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One of the most important parts of a cement factory is the cement rotary kiln which plays a key role in quality and quantity of produced cement. In this part, the physical exertion and bilateral movement of air and materials, together with chemical reactions take place. Thus, this system has immensely complex and nonlinear dynamic equations. These equations have not worked out yet. Only in exceptional case; however, a large number of the involved parameter were crossed out and an approximation model was presented instead. This issue caused many problems for designing a cement rotary kiln controller. In this paper, we presented nonlinear predictor and simulator models for a real cement rotary kiln by using nonlinear identification technique on the Locally Linear Neuro- Fuzzy (LLNF) model. For the first time, a simulator model as well as a predictor one with a precise fifteen minute prediction horizon for a cement rotary kiln is presented. These models are trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental tree-structure algorithm. At the end, the characteristics of these models are expressed. Furthermore, we presented the pros and cons of these models. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for modeling.

Keywords: Cement rotary kiln, nonlinear identification, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy model.

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Authors: Abdel-Rahman M. Jaradat, , Mansour I. Irshid, Talha T. Nassar

Abstract:

A novel file splitting technique for the reduction of the nth-order entropy of text files is proposed. The technique is based on mapping the original text file into a non-ASCII binary file using a new codeword assignment method and then the resulting binary file is split into several subfiles each contains one or more bits from each codeword of the mapped binary file. The statistical properties of the subfiles are studied and it is found that they reflect the statistical properties of the original text file which is not the case when the ASCII code is used as a mapper. The nth-order entropy of these subfiles are determined and it is found that the sum of their entropies is less than that of the original text file for the same values of extensions. These interesting statistical properties of the resulting subfiles can be used to achieve better compression ratios when conventional compression techniques are applied to these subfiles individually and on a bit-wise basis rather than on character-wise basis.

Keywords: Bit-wise compression, entropy, file splitting, source mapping.

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Authors: D.O. Omondi, M.K. Walingo, G.M. Mbagaya, L.O.A. Othuon

Abstract:

Many studies have applied the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) in predicting health behaviors among unique populations. However, a new paradigm is emerging where focus is now directed to modification and expansion of the TPB model rather than utilization of the traditional theory. This review proposes new models modified from the Theory of Planned Behavior and suggest an appropriate study design that can be used to test the models within physical activity and dietary practice domains among Type 2 diabetics in Kenya. The review was conducted by means of literature search in the field of nutrition behavior, health psychology and mixed methods using predetermined key words. The results identify pre-intention and post intention gaps within the TPB model that need to be filled. Additional psychosocial factors are proposed to be included in the TPB model to generate new models and the efficacy of these models tested using mixed methods design.

Keywords: Physical activity, diet, Type 2 diabetes, behaviorchange theory, model.

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Authors: Satyendra Nath Mandal, J. Pal Choudhury, Dilip De, S. R. Bhadra Chaudhuri

Abstract:

The production of a plant can be measured in terms of seeds. The generation of seeds plays a critical role in our social and daily life. The fruit production which generates seeds, depends on the various parameters of the plant, such as shoot length, leaf number, root length, root number, etc When the plant is growing, some leaves may be lost and some new leaves may appear. It is very difficult to use the number of leaves of the tree to calculate the growth of the plant.. It is also cumbersome to measure the number of roots and length of growth of root in several time instances continuously after certain initial period of time, because roots grow deeper and deeper under ground in course of time. On the contrary, the shoot length of the tree grows in course of time which can be measured in different time instances. So the growth of the plant can be measured using the data of shoot length which are measured at different time instances after plantation. The environmental parameters like temperature, rain fall, humidity and pollution are also play some role in production of yield. The soil, crop and distance management are taken care to produce maximum amount of yields of plant. The data of the growth of shoot length of some mustard plant at the initial stage (7,14,21 & 28 days after plantation) is available from the statistical survey by a group of scientists under the supervision of Prof. Dilip De. In this paper, initial shoot length of Ken( one type of mustard plant) has been used as an initial data. The statistical models, the methods of fuzzy logic and neural network have been tested on this mustard plant and based on error analysis (calculation of average error) that model with minimum error has been selected and can be used for the assessment of shoot length at maturity. Finally, all these methods have been tested with other type of mustard plants and the particular soft computing model with the minimum error of all types has been selected for calculating the predicted data of growth of shoot length. The shoot length at the stage of maturity of all types of mustard plants has been calculated using the statistical method on the predicted data of shoot length.

Keywords: Fuzzy time series, neural network, forecasting error, average error.

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

Abstract:

In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: Equivalent Martingale Measure, European Put Option, Girsanov Theorem, Martingales, Monte Carlo method, option price valuation, option price valuation formula.

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Authors: Raninder Kaur Dhillon, Mayur Jethwa, Hardeep Singh Rai

Abstract:

Information technology has made a pivotal progress across disparate disciplines, one of which is AEC (Architecture, Engineering and Construction) industry. CAD is a form of computer-aided building modulation that architects, engineers and contractors use to create and view two- and three-dimensional models. The AEC industry also uses building information modeling (BIM), a newer computerized modeling system that can create four-dimensional models; this software can greatly increase productivity in the AEC industry. BIM models generate open source IFC (Industry Foundation Classes) files which aim for interoperability for exchanging information throughout the project lifecycle among various disciplines. The methods developed in previous studies require either an IFC schema or MVD and software applications, such as an IFC model server or a Building Information Modeling (BIM) authoring tool, to extract a partial or complete IFC instance model. This paper proposes an efficient algorithm for extracting a partial and total model from an Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) instance model without an IFC schema or a complete IFC model view definition (MVD).

Keywords: BIM, CAD, IFC, MVD.

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Authors: H. J. Wattimanela, U. S. Passaribu, N. T. Puspito, S. W. Indratno

Abstract:

Molluca Collision Zone is located at the junction of the Eurasian, Australian, Pacific and the Philippines plates. Between the Sangihe arc, west of the collision zone, and to the east of Halmahera arc is active collision and convex toward the Molluca Sea. This research will analyze the behavior of earthquake occurrence in Molluca Collision Zone related to the distributions of an earthquake in each partition regions, determining the type of distribution of a occurrence earthquake of partition regions, and the mean occurence of earthquakes each partition regions, and the correlation between the partitions region. We calculate number of earthquakes using partition method and its behavioral using conventional statistical methods. In this research, we used data of shallow earthquakes type and its magnitudes ≥4 SR (period 1964-2013). From the results, we can classify partitioned regions based on the correlation into two classes: strong and very strong. This classification can be used for early warning system in disaster management.

Keywords: Molluca Collision Zone, partition regions, conventional statistical methods, Earthquakes, classifications, disaster management.

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Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

Abstract:

As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: Global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, North Western Himalayan region.

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Authors: Zoran Jovanovic, Zoran Masonicic, S. Dragutinovic, Z. Sakota

Abstract:

In this paper, results concerning flame propagation of various fuels in a particular combustion chamber with four tilted valves were elucidated. Flame propagation was represented by the evolution of spatial distribution of temperature in various cut-planes within combustion chamber while the flame front location was determined by dint of zones with maximum temperature gradient. The results presented are only a small part of broader on-going scrutinizing activity in the field of multidimensional modeling of reactive flows in combustion chambers with complicated geometries encompassing various models of turbulence, different fuels and combustion models. In the case of turbulence two different models were applied i.e. standard k-ε model of turbulence and k-ξ-f model of turbulence. In this paper flame propagation results were analyzed and presented for two different hydrocarbon fuels, such as CH4 and C8H18. In the case of combustion all differences ensuing from different turbulence models, obvious for non-reactive flows are annihilated entirely. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is invariant as regards turbulence models and fuels applied. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is entirely invariant as regards fuel variation indicating that the flame propagation through unburned mixture of CH4 and C8H18 fuels is not chemically controlled.

Keywords: Automotive flows, flame propagation, combustion modelling.

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Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Noe Barrera-G

Abstract:

An analysis of a synchronous generator in a bond graph approach is proposed. This bond graph allows to determine the simplified models of the system by using singular perturbations. Firstly, the nonlinear bond graph of the generator is linearized. Then, the slow and fast state equations by applying singular perturbations are obtained. Also, a bond graph to get the quasi-steady state of the slow dynamic is proposed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the singularly perturbed models, simulation results of the complete system and reduced models are shown.

Keywords: Bond graph modelling, synchronous generator, singular perturbations

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Authors: Fathi M. O. Hamed, Salma F. Elkofhaifee

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to detect geometrical shape objects in an image. In this paper, the object is considered to be as a circle shape. The identification requires find three characteristics, which are number, size, and location of the object. To achieve the goal of this work, this paper presents an algorithm that combines from some of statistical approaches and image analysis techniques. This algorithm has been implemented to arrive at the major objectives in this paper. The algorithm has been evaluated by using simulated data, and yields good results, and then it has been applied to real data.

Keywords: Image processing, median filter, projection, scalespace, segmentation, threshold.

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Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman, K. Kadirgama, M.A. Maleque, Rosli A. Bakar

Abstract:

Conventionally the selection of parameters depends intensely on the operator-s experience or conservative technological data provided by the EDM equipment manufacturers that assign inconsistent machining performance. The parameter settings given by the manufacturers are only relevant with common steel grades. A single parameter change influences the process in a complex way. Hence, the present research proposes artificial neural network (ANN) models for the prediction of surface roughness on first commenced Ti-15-3 alloy in electrical discharge machining (EDM) process. The proposed models use peak current, pulse on time, pulse off time and servo voltage as input parameters. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) with three hidden layer feedforward networks are applied. An assessment is carried out with the models of distinct hidden layer. Training of the models is performed with data from an extensive series of experiments utilizing copper electrode as positive polarity. The predictions based on the above developed models have been verified with another set of experiments and are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. Beside this they can be exercised as precious tools for the process planning for EDM.

Keywords: Ti-15l-3, surface roughness, copper, positive polarity, multi-layered perceptron.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Ahmad Habibizad Navin, Mehdi Naghian Fesharaki, Mirkamal Mirnia, Mohamad Teshnelab, Ehsan Shahamatnia

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce new data oriented modeling of uniform random variable well-matched with computing systems. Due to this conformity with current computers structure, this modeling will be efficiently used in statistical inference.

Keywords: Uniform random variable, Data oriented modeling, Statistical inference, Prodigraph, Statistically complete tree, Uniformdigital probability digraph, Uniform n-complete probability tree.

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Authors: Hanifeh Imanian, Morteza Kolahdoozan

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to present a mathematical phrase for calculating the dispersion rate of spilled oil in water column under non-breaking waves. In this regard, a multiphase numerical model is applied for which waves and oil phase were computed concurrently, and accuracy of its hydraulic calculations have been proven. More than 200 various scenarios of oil spilling in wave waters were simulated using the multiphase numerical model and its outcome were collected in a database. The recorded results were investigated to identify the major parameters affected vertical oil dispersion and finally 6 parameters were identified as main independent factors. Furthermore, some statistical tests were conducted to identify any relationship between the dependent variable (dispersed oil mass in the water column) and independent variables (water wave specifications containing height, length and wave period and spilled oil characteristics including density, viscosity and spilled oil mass). Finally, a mathematical-statistical relationship is proposed to predict dispersed oil in marine waters. To verify the proposed relationship, a laboratory example available in the literature was selected. Oil mass rate penetrated in water body computed by statistical regression was in accordance with experimental data was predicted. On this occasion, it was necessary to verify the proposed mathematical phrase. In a selected laboratory case available in the literature, mass oil rate penetrated in water body computed by suggested regression. Results showed good agreement with experimental data. The validated mathematical-statistical phrase is a useful tool for oil dispersion prediction in oil spill events in marine areas.

Keywords: Dispersion, marine environment, mathematical-statistical relationship, oil spill.

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Authors: Abdunaser Abduelmula, Maria Luisa M. Bastos, José A. Gonçalves

Abstract:

Modelling of the earth's surface and evaluation of urban environment, with 3D models, is an important research topic. New stereo capabilities of high resolution optical satellites images, such as the tri-stereo mode of Pleiades, combined with new image matching algorithms, are now available and can be applied in urban area analysis. In addition, photogrammetry software packages gained new, more efficient matching algorithms, such as SGM, as well as improved filters to deal with shadow areas, can achieve more dense and more precise results. This paper describes a comparison between 3D data extracted from tri-stereo and dual stereo satellite images, combined with pixel based matching and Wallis filter. The aim was to improve the accuracy of 3D models especially in urban areas, in order to assess if satellite images are appropriate for a rapid evaluation of urban environments. The results showed that 3D models achieved by Pleiades tri-stereo outperformed, both in terms of accuracy and detail, the result obtained from a Geo-eye pair. The assessment was made with reference digital surface models derived from high resolution aerial photography. This could mean that tri-stereo images can be successfully used for the proposed urban change analyses.

Keywords: 3D Models, Environment, Matching, Pleiades.

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Authors: Makram Ben Jeddou

Abstract:

ABC classification is widely used by managers for inventory control. The classical ABC classification is based on Pareto principle and according to the criterion of the annual use value only. Single criterion classification is often insufficient for a closely inventory control. Multi-criteria inventory classification models have been proposed by researchers in order to consider other important criteria. From these models, we will consider a specific model in order to make a sensitive analysis on the composite score calculated for each item. In fact, this score, based on a normalized average between a good and a bad optimized index, can affect the ABC-item classification. We will focus on items differently assigned to classes and then propose a classification compromise.

Keywords: ABC classification, Multi criteria inventory classification models, ZF-model.

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Authors: Suleyman A. Muyibi, Munirat, A. Idris, Saedi Jami, Parveen Jamal, Mohd Ismail Abdul Karim

Abstract:

In this study, statistical optimization design was used to study the optimum disinfection parameters using defatted crude Moringa oleifera seed extracts against Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacterial cells. The classical one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) and response surface methodology (RSM) was used. The possible optimum range of dosage, contact time and mixing rate from the OFAT study were 25mg/l to 200mg/l, 30minutes to 240 minutes and 100rpm to 160rpm respectively. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the statistical optimization using faced centered central composite design showed that dosage, contact time and mixing rate were highly significant. The optimum disinfection range was 125mg/l, at contact time of 30 minutes with mixing rate of 120 rpm. 

Keywords: E.coli, disinfection, Moringa oleifera, response surface methodology.

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Authors: Zhengyi Kong, Seung-Eock Kim

Abstract:

Single angle connections, which are bolted to the beam web and the column flange, are studied to investigate their moment-rotation behavior. Elastic–perfectly plastic material behavior is assumed. ABAQUS software is used to analyze the nonlinear behavior of a single angle connection. The identical geometric and material conditions with Lipson’s test are used for verifying finite element models. Since Kishi and Chen’s Power model and Lee and Moon’s Log model are accurate only for a limited range of mechanism, simpler and more accurate hyperbolic function models are proposed.

Keywords: Single-web angle connections, finite element method, moment and rotation, hyperbolic function models.

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Authors: Adilson Elias Xavier, Otto Corrêa Rotunno Filho, Paulo Canedo de Magalhães

Abstract:

This paper addresses the issue of automatic parameter estimation in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. Due to threshold structures commonly occurring in CRR models, the associated mathematical optimization problems have the significant characteristic of being strongly non-differentiable. In order to face this enormous task, the resolution method proposed adopts a smoothing strategy using a special C∞ differentiable class function. The final estimation solution is obtained by solving a sequence of differentiable subproblems which gradually approach the original conceptual problem. The use of this technique, called Hyperbolic Smoothing Method (HSM), makes possible the application of the most powerful minimization algorithms, and also allows for the main difficulties presented by the original CRR problem to be overcome. A set of computational experiments is presented for the purpose of illustrating both the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Rainfall-runoff models, optimization procedure, automatic parameter calibration, hyperbolic smoothing method.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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