Search results for: Smoothing Spline.
142 A Comparison of the Nonparametric Regression Models using Smoothing Spline and Kernel Regression
Authors: Dursun Aydin
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This paper study about using of nonparametric models for Gross National Product data in Turkey and Stanford heart transplant data. It is discussed two nonparametric techniques called smoothing spline and kernel regression. The main goal is to compare the techniques used for prediction of the nonparametric regression models. According to the results of numerical studies, it is concluded that smoothing spline regression estimators are better than those of the kernel regression.Keywords: Kernel regression, Nonparametric models, Prediction, Smoothing spline.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3100141 Orthogonal Regression for Nonparametric Estimation of Errors-in-Variables Models
Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva
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Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.
Keywords: Grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2132140 A Review on Higher Order Spline Techniques for Solving Burgers Equation Using B-Spline Methods and Variation of B-Spline Techniques
Authors: Maryam Khazaei Pool, Lori Lewis
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This is a summary of articles based on higher order B-splines methods and the variation of B-spline methods such as Quadratic B-spline Finite Elements Method, Exponential Cubic B-Spline Method Septic B-spline Technique, Quintic B-spline Galerkin Method, and B-spline Galerkin Method based on the Quadratic B-spline Galerkin method (QBGM) and Cubic B-spline Galerkin method (CBGM). In this paper we study the B-spline methods and variations of B-spline techniques to find a numerical solution to the Burgers’ equation. A set of fundamental definitions including Burgers equation, spline functions, and B-spline functions are provided. For each method, the main technique is discussed as well as the discretization and stability analysis. A summary of the numerical results is provided and the efficiency of each method presented is discussed. A general conclusion is provided where we look at a comparison between the computational results of all the presented schemes. We describe the effectiveness and advantages of these methods.
Keywords: Burgers’ Equation, Septic B-spline, Modified Cubic B-Spline Differential Quadrature Method, Exponential Cubic B-Spline Technique, B-Spline Galerkin Method, and Quintic B-Spline Galerkin Method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 361139 A Comparison of the Sum of Squares in Linear and Partial Linear Regression Models
Authors: Dursun Aydın
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In this paper, estimation of the linear regression model is made by ordinary least squares method and the partially linear regression model is estimated by penalized least squares method using smoothing spline. Then, it is investigated that differences and similarity in the sum of squares related for linear regression and partial linear regression models (semi-parametric regression models). It is denoted that the sum of squares in linear regression is reduced to sum of squares in partial linear regression models. Furthermore, we indicated that various sums of squares in the linear regression are similar to different deviance statements in partial linear regression. In addition to, coefficient of the determination derived in linear regression model is easily generalized to coefficient of the determination of the partial linear regression model. For this aim, it is made two different applications. A simulated and a real data set are considered to prove the claim mentioned here. In this way, this study is supported with a simulation and a real data example.Keywords: Partial Linear Regression Model, Linear RegressionModel, Residuals, Deviance, Smoothing Spline.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1871138 Cubic Trigonometric B-Spline Applied to Linear Two-Point Boundary Value Problems of Order Two
Authors: Nur Nadiah Abd Hamid , Ahmad Abd. Majid, Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail
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Linear two-point boundary value problems of order two are solved using cubic trigonometric B-spline interpolation method (CTBIM). Cubic trigonometric B-spline is a piecewise function consisting of trigonometric equations. This method is tested on some problems and the results are compared with cubic B-spline interpolation method (CBIM) from the literature. CTBIM is found to approximate the solution slightly more accurately than CBIM if the problems are trigonometric.Keywords: trigonometric B-spline, two-point boundary valueproblem, spline interpolation, cubic spline
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2576137 Extended Cubic B-spline Interpolation Method Applied to Linear Two-Point Boundary Value Problems
Authors: Nur Nadiah Abd Hamid, Ahmad Abd. Majid, Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail
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Linear two-point boundary value problem of order two is solved using extended cubic B-spline interpolation method. There is one free parameters, λ, that control the tension of the solution curve. For some λ, this method produced better results than cubic B-spline interpolation method.
Keywords: two-point boundary value problem, B-spline, extendedcubic B-spline.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2179136 Quartic Nonpolynomial Spline Solutions for Third Order Two-Point Boundary Value Problem
Authors: Talaat S. El-Danaf
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In this paper, we develop quartic nonpolynomial spline method for the numerical solution of third order two point boundary value problems. It is shown that the new method gives approximations, which are better than those produced by other spline methods. Convergence analysis of the method is discussed through standard procedures. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of the novel method.Keywords: Quartic nonpolynomial spline, Two-point boundary value problem.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2007135 A New Quadrature Rule Derived from Spline Interpolation with Error Analysis
Authors: Hadi Taghvafard
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We present a new quadrature rule based on the spline interpolation along with the error analysis. Moreover, some error estimates for the reminder when the integrand is either a Lipschitzian function, a function of bounded variation or a function whose derivative belongs to Lp are given. We also give some examples to show that, practically, the spline rule is better than the trapezoidal rule.Keywords: Quadrature, Spline interpolation, Trapezoidal rule, Numericalintegration, Error analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2221134 Application of Higher Order Splines for Boundary Value Problems
Authors: Pankaj Kumar Srivastava
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Bringing forth a survey on recent higher order spline techniques for solving boundary value problems in ordinary differential equations. Here we have discussed the summary of the articles since 2000 till date based on higher order splines like Septic, Octic, Nonic, Tenth, Eleventh, Twelfth and Thirteenth Degree splines. Comparisons of methods with own critical comments as remarks have been included.Keywords: Septic spline, Octic spline, Nonic spline, Tenth, Eleventh, Twelfth and Thirteenth Degree spline, parametric and non-parametric splines, thermal instability, astrophysics.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2769133 Beta-spline Surface Fitting to Multi-slice Images
Authors: Normi Abdul Hadi, Arsmah Ibrahim, Fatimah Yahya, Jamaludin Md. Ali
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Beta-spline is built on G2 continuity which guarantees smoothness of generated curves and surfaces using it. This curve is preferred to be used in object design rather than reconstruction. This study however, employs the Beta-spline in reconstructing a 3- dimensional G2 image of the Stanford Rabbit. The original data consists of multi-slice binary images of the rabbit. The result is then compared with related works using other techniques.Keywords: Beta-spline, multi-slice image, rectangular surface, 3D reconstruction
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1882132 Peakwise Smoothing of Data Models using Wavelets
Authors: D Sudheer Reddy, N Gopal Reddy, P V Radhadevi, J Saibaba, Geeta Varadan
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Smoothing or filtering of data is first preprocessing step for noise suppression in many applications involving data analysis. Moving average is the most popular method of smoothing the data, generalization of this led to the development of Savitzky-Golay filter. Many window smoothing methods were developed by convolving the data with different window functions for different applications; most widely used window functions are Gaussian or Kaiser. Function approximation of the data by polynomial regression or Fourier expansion or wavelet expansion also gives a smoothed data. Wavelets also smooth the data to great extent by thresholding the wavelet coefficients. Almost all smoothing methods destroys the peaks and flatten them when the support of the window is increased. In certain applications it is desirable to retain peaks while smoothing the data as much as possible. In this paper we present a methodology called as peak-wise smoothing that will smooth the data to any desired level without losing the major peak features.Keywords: smoothing, moving average, peakwise smoothing, spatialdensity models, planar shape models, wavelets.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1749131 Cantor Interpolating Spline to Design Electronic Mail Boxes
Authors: Adil Al-Rammahi
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Electronic mail is very important in present time. Many researchers work for designing, improving, securing, fasting, goodness and others fields in electronic mail. This paper introduced new algorithm to use Cantor sets and cubic spline interpolating function in the electronic mail design. Cantor sets used as the area (or domain) of the mail, while spline function used for designing formula. The roots of spline function versus Cantor sets used as the controller admin. The roots calculated by the numerical Newton – Raphson's method. The result of this algorithm was promised.
Keywords: Cantor sets, spline, electronic mail design, Newton – Raphson's method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1597130 Numerical Solution for Integro-Differential Equations by Using Quartic B-Spline Wavelet and Operational Matrices
Authors: Khosrow Maleknejad, Yaser Rostami
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In this paper, Semi-orthogonal B-spline scaling functions and wavelets and their dual functions are presented to approximate the solutions of integro-differential equations.The B-spline scaling functions and wavelets, their properties and the operational matrices of derivative for this function are presented to reduce the solution of integro-differential equations to the solution of algebraic equations. Here we compute B-spline scaling functions of degree 4 and their dual, then we will show that by using them we have better approximation results for the solution of integro-differential equations in comparison with less degrees of scaling functions
Keywords: Integro-differential equations, Quartic B-spline wavelet, Operational matrices.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3150129 Evaluating Sinusoidal Functions by a Low Complexity Cubic Spline Interpolator with Error Optimization
Authors: Abhijit Mitra, Harpreet Singh Dhillon
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We present a novel scheme to evaluate sinusoidal functions with low complexity and high precision using cubic spline interpolation. To this end, two different approaches are proposed to find the interpolating polynomial of sin(x) within the range [- π , π]. The first one deals with only a single data point while the other with two to keep the realization cost as low as possible. An approximation error optimization technique for cubic spline interpolation is introduced next and is shown to increase the interpolator accuracy without increasing complexity of the associated hardware. The architectures for the proposed approaches are also developed, which exhibit flexibility of implementation with low power requirement.
Keywords: Arithmetic, spline interpolator, hardware design, erroranalysis, optimization methods.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2056128 Estimation of Train Operation Using an Exponential Smoothing Method
Authors: Taiyo Matsumura, Kuninori Takahashi, Takashi Ono
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The purpose of this research is to improve the convenience of waiting for trains at level crossings and stations and to prevent accidents resulting from forcible entry into level crossings, by providing level crossing users and passengers with information that tells them when the next train will pass through or arrive. For this paper, we proposed methods for estimating operation by means of an average value method, variable response smoothing method, and exponential smoothing method, on the basis of open data, which has low accuracy, but for which performance schedules are distributed in real time. We then examined the accuracy of the estimations. The results showed that the application of an exponential smoothing method is valid.
Keywords: Exponential smoothing method, open data, operation estimation, train schedule.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 714127 Application of Generalized NAUT B-Spline Curveon Circular Domain to Generate Circle Involute
Authors: Ashok Ganguly, Pranjali Arondekar
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In the present paper, we use generalized B-Spline curve in trigonometric form on circular domain, to capture the transcendental nature of circle involute curve and uncertainty characteristic of design. The required involute curve get generated within the given tolerance limit and is useful in gear design.
Keywords: Bézier, Circle Involute, NAUT B-Spline, Spur Gear.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1791126 Non-Polynomial Spline Method for the Solution of Problems in Calculus of Variations
Authors: M. Zarebnia, M. Hoshyar, M. Sedaghati
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In this paper, a numerical solution based on nonpolynomial cubic spline functions is used for finding the solution of boundary value problems which arise from the problems of calculus of variations. This approximation reduce the problems to an explicit system of algebraic equations. Some numerical examples are also given to illustrate the accuracy and applicability of the presented method.Keywords: Calculus of variation; Non-polynomial spline functions; Numerical method
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1982125 GMDH Modeling Based on Polynomial Spline Estimation and Its Applications
Authors: LI qiu-min, TIAN yi-xiang, ZHANG gao-xun
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GMDH algorithm can well describe the internal structure of objects. In the process of modeling, automatic screening of model structure and variables ensure the convergence rate.This paper studied a new GMDH model based on polynomial spline stimation. The polynomial spline function was used to instead of the transfer function of GMDH to characterize the relationship between the input variables and output variables. It has proved that the algorithm has the optimal convergence rate under some conditions. The empirical results show that the algorithm can well forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Keywords: spline, GMDH, nonparametric, bias, forecast.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2135124 Microarrays Denoising via Smoothing of Coefficients in Wavelet Domain
Authors: Mario Mastriani, Alberto E. Giraldez
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We describe a novel method for removing noise (in wavelet domain) of unknown variance from microarrays. The method is based on a smoothing of the coefficients of the highest subbands. Specifically, we decompose the noisy microarray into wavelet subbands, apply smoothing within each highest subband, and reconstruct a microarray from the modified wavelet coefficients. This process is applied a single time, and exclusively to the first level of decomposition, i.e., in most of the cases, it is not necessary a multirresoltuion analysis. Denoising results compare favorably to the most of methods in use at the moment.
Keywords: Directional smoothing, denoising, edge preservation, microarrays, thresholding, wavelets
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1501123 Spline Collocation for Solving System of Fredholm and Volterra Integral Equations
Authors: N. Ebrahimi, J. Rashidinia
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In this paper, numerical solution of system of Fredholm and Volterra integral equations by means of the Spline collocation method is considered. This approximation reduces the system of integral equations to an explicit system of algebraic equations. The solution is collocated by cubic B-spline and the integrand is approximated by the Newton-Cotes formula. The error analysis of proposed numerical method is studied theoretically. The results are compared with the results obtained by other methods to illustrate the accuracy and the implementation of our method.
Keywords: Convergence analysis, Cubic B-spline, Newton- Cotes formula, System of Fredholm and Volterra integral equations.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2198122 Quintic Spline Solution of Fourth-Order Parabolic Equations Arising in Beam Theory
Authors: Reza Mohammadi, Mahdieh Sahebi
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We develop a method based on polynomial quintic spline for numerical solution of fourth-order non-homogeneous parabolic partial differential equation with variable coefficient. By using polynomial quintic spline in off-step points in space and finite difference in time directions, we obtained two three level implicit methods. Stability analysis of the presented method has been carried out. We solve four test problems numerically to validate the derived method. Numerical comparison with other methods shows the superiority of presented scheme.Keywords: Fourth-order parabolic equation, variable coefficient, polynomial quintic spline, off-step points, stability analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1184121 Using “Eckel” Model to Measure Income Smoothing Practices: The Case of French Companies
Authors: Feddaoui Amina
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Income smoothing represents an attempt on the part of the company's management to reduce variations in earnings through the manipulation of the accounting principles. In this study, we aimed to measure income smoothing practices in a sample of 30 French joint stock companies during the period (2007-2009), we used Dummy variables method and “ECKEL” model to measure income smoothing practices and Binomial test accourding to SPSS program, to confirm or refute our hypothesis. This study concluded that there are no significant statistical indicators of income smoothing practices in the sample studied of French companies during the period (2007-2009), so the income series in the same sample studied of is characterized by stability and non-volatility without any intervention of management through accounting manipulation. However, this type of accounting manipulation should be taken into account and efforts should be made by control bodies to apply Eckel model and generalize its use at the global level.
Keywords: Income, smoothing, “Eckel”, French companies.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1003120 Non-Polynomial Spline Solution of Fourth-Order Obstacle Boundary-Value Problems
Authors: Jalil Rashidinia, Reza Jalilian
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In this paper we use quintic non-polynomial spline functions to develop numerical methods for approximation to the solution of a system of fourth-order boundaryvalue problems associated with obstacle, unilateral and contact problems. The convergence analysis of the methods has been discussed and shown that the given approximations are better than collocation and finite difference methods. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of these methods, and to compare the computed results with other known methods.Keywords: Quintic non-polynomial spline, Boundary formula, Convergence, Obstacle problems.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1817119 Cubic Trigonometric B-spline Approach to Numerical Solution of Wave Equation
Authors: Shazalina Mat Zin, Ahmad Abd. Majid, Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail, Muhammad Abbas
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The generalized wave equation models various problems in sciences and engineering. In this paper, a new three-time level implicit approach based on cubic trigonometric B-spline for the approximate solution of wave equation is developed. The usual finite difference approach is used to discretize the time derivative while cubic trigonometric B-spline is applied as an interpolating function in the space dimension. Von Neumann stability analysis is used to analyze the proposed method. Two problems are discussed to exhibit the feasibility and capability of the method. The absolute errors and maximum error are computed to assess the performance of the proposed method. The results were found to be in good agreement with known solutions and with existing schemes in literature.
Keywords: Collocation method, Cubic trigonometric B-spline, Finite difference, Wave equation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2603118 Strength Optimization of Induction Hardened Splined Shaft – Material and Geometric Aspects
Authors: I. Barsoum, F. Khan
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the current study presents a modeling framework to determine the torsion strength of an induction hardened splined shaft by considering geometry and material aspects with the aim to optimize the static torsion strength by selection of spline geometry and hardness depth. Six different spline geometries and seven different hardness profiles including non-hardened and throughhardened shafts have been considered. The results reveal that the torque that causes initial yielding of the induction hardened splined shaft is strongly dependent on the hardness depth and the geometry of the spline teeth. Guidelines for selection of the appropriate hardness depth and spline geometry are given such that an optimum static torsion strength of the component can be achieved.
Keywords: Static strength, splined shaft, torsion, induction hardening, hardness profile, finite element, optimization, design.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4970117 A Comparison of Some Splines-Based Methods for the One-dimensional Heat Equation
Authors: Joan Goh, Ahmad Abd. Majid, Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail
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In this paper, collocation based cubic B-spline and extended cubic uniform B-spline method are considered for solving one-dimensional heat equation with a nonlocal initial condition. Finite difference and θ-weighted scheme is used for time and space discretization respectively. The stability of the method is analyzed by the Von Neumann method. Accuracy of the methods is illustrated with an example. The numerical results are obtained and compared with the analytical solutions.Keywords: Heat equation, Collocation based, Cubic Bspline, Extended cubic uniform B-spline.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1903116 Discrete Polynomial Moments and Savitzky-Golay Smoothing
Authors: Paul O'Leary, Matthew Harker
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This paper presents unified theory for local (Savitzky- Golay) and global polynomial smoothing. The algebraic framework can represent any polynomial approximation and is seamless from low degree local, to high degree global approximations. The representation of the smoothing operator as a projection onto orthonormal basis functions enables the computation of: the covariance matrix for noise propagation through the filter; the noise gain and; the frequency response of the polynomial filters. A virtually perfect Gram polynomial basis is synthesized, whereby polynomials of degree d = 1000 can be synthesized without significant errors. The perfect basis ensures that the filters are strictly polynomial preserving. Given n points and a support length ls = 2m + 1 then the smoothing operator is strictly linear phase for the points xi, i = m+1. . . n-m. The method is demonstrated on geometric surfaces data lying on an invariant 2D lattice.Keywords: Gram polynomials, Savitzky-Golay Smoothing, Discrete Polynomial Moments
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2789115 Septic B-Spline Collocation Method for Numerical Solution of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky Equation
Authors: M. Zarebnia, R. Parvaz
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In this paper the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation is solved numerically by collocation method. The solution is approximated as a linear combination of septic B-spline functions. Applying the Von-Neumann stability analysis technique, we show that the method is unconditionally stable. The method is applied on some test examples, and the numerical results have been compared with the exact solutions. The global relative error and L∞ in the solutions show the efficiency of the method computationally.
Keywords: Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, Septic B-spline, Collocation method, Finite difference.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2062114 Overview of Adaptive Spline Interpolation
Authors: Rongli Gai, Zhiyuan Chang, Xiaohong Wang, Jingyu Liu
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In view of various situations in the interpolation process, most researchers use self-adaptation to adjust the interpolation process, which is also one of the current and future research hotspots in the field of CNC (Computerized Numerical Control) machining. In the interpolation process, according to the overview of the spline curve interpolation algorithm, the adaptive analysis is carried out from the factors affecting the interpolation process. The adaptive operation is reflected in various aspects, such as speed, parameters, errors, nodes, feed rates, random period, sensitive point, step size, curvature, adaptive segmentation, adaptive optimization, etc. This paper will analyze and summarize the research of adaptive imputation in the direction of the above factors affecting imputation.
Keywords: Adaptive algorithm, CNC machining, interpolation constraints, spline curve interpolation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 552113 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods
Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk
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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.
Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.
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