Estimation of Train Operation Using an Exponential Smoothing Method

Authors: Taiyo Matsumura, Kuninori Takahashi, Takashi Ono

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to improve the convenience of waiting for trains at level crossings and stations and to prevent accidents resulting from forcible entry into level crossings, by providing level crossing users and passengers with information that tells them when the next train will pass through or arrive. For this paper, we proposed methods for estimating operation by means of an average value method, variable response smoothing method, and exponential smoothing method, on the basis of open data, which has low accuracy, but for which performance schedules are distributed in real time. We then examined the accuracy of the estimations. The results showed that the application of an exponential smoothing method is valid.

Keywords: Exponential smoothing method, open data, operation estimation, train schedule.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1316818

References:

[1] Facilities Division of Railway Bureau, “Comprehensive inspection results regarding level crossing traffic accidents”, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2007, p.1 and Attachment ＜Definition of Terms＞.
[2] M. Miyachi, and Y. Hirao, “The constant warning time control installation used as countermeasures for extraordinarily long time closed level-crossings on urban railways”, RTRI Report, Vol.2, No.2, pp.29-36, 1988.
[3] T. Kumagai, Y. Hirao, and Y. Hasegawa, “Level crossing control by radio”, RTRI Report, Vol.4, No.11, pp.42-49, 1990.
[4] T. Matsumura, and T. Ono, “Research into Warning Time Optimum Control for Level Crossing - Train Location Detector using Three-Inductive Wires –”, IEEJ Transactions on Fundamentals and Materials, Vol.132, No.10, 2012, pp.893-900.
[5] K. Ohashi, T. Mori, and T. Koseki, “Modeling the Change in Passenger Flow Depending on Train Congestion in Train Rescheduling”, The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan, Vol.135, No.4, 2015, pp.438-443.
[6] K. Murao, Initiatives on “Practical use of open data” of Tokyo Metro, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 2015, pp.3-47.
[7] Urban Railway Policy Division of Railway Bureau, “Congestion rate data”, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2015, p.3.