Search results for: Semi-arid Climate.

Authors: Kukuri Tavartkiladze, Nana Bolashvili

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The purpose of this paper was separation and study of the part of structure regime, which directly affects the process of desertification. A simple scheme was prepared for the assessment of desertification process; surface air temperature and precipitation for the years of 1936-2009 were analyzed.  The map of distribution of the Desertification Contributing Coefficient in the territory of Georgia was compiled. The simple scheme for identification of the intensity of the desertification contributing process has been developed and the illustrative example of its practical application for the territory of Georgia has been conducted.

Keywords: Climate change, aridity, desertification, precipitation.

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Authors: A. Brunel, A. Kernevez, F. Leclere, J. Trenteseaux

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Today, wine quality is only evaluated by wine experts with their own different personal tastes, even if they may agree on some common features. So producers do not have any unbiased way to independently assess the quality of their products. A tool is here proposed to evaluate wine quality by an objective ranking based upon the variables entering wine elaboration, and analysed through principal component analysis (PCA) method. Actual climatic data are compared by measuring the relative distance between each considered wine, out of which the general ranking is performed.

Keywords: Wine, grape, vine, weather conditions, rating, climate, principal component analysis, metric analysis.

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Authors: R. M. R. Hussein

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Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, economic, and social challenges of our time. Urban transportation has had a major negative impact on our environment—most of our air pollution comes from transport. This paper explores ways to move toward a more sustainable transport system by focusing on creating a more efficient and livable city and improving the environmental efficiency of transport activity. The analytical study covers some international examples of applying sustainable transportation and uses them to suggest a frame work to develop the transportation system in Egypt to be sustainable and more intelligent.

Keywords: Eco-efficiency, electric vehicle, liveable city, sustainable transportation.

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Authors: Volker Wannack

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Regional and global strategies focusing on hydrogen (H2) and blockchain technologies are fueling remarkable advancements. These strategies underpin the revolutionary 'Blockchain Based Hydrogen Market (BBH2)' project, with the primary objective of creating a Blockchain Minimum Viable Product (B-MVP) tailored to the hydrogen market. The B-MVP harnesses blockchain's capabilities, establishing a unified platform for secure, automated transactions via smart contracts. This innovation promises to reshape hydrogen logistics, trade, and transactions. The B-MVP carries transformative potential across diverse sectors, benefiting renewable energy producers, surplus energy-based hydrogen manufacturers, grid operators, and consumers. By implementing standardized, automated, tamper-proof processes, it bolsters cost-efficiency and enables transparent, traceable transactions. Its core mission is to verify the integrity of 'green' hydrogen, tracing its journey from renewable producers to end-users. This emphasis on transparency fosters economic, ecological, and social sustainability within a secure, transparent market. A standout feature of the B-MVP is its cross-border adaptability, obviating the need for nation-specific data storage, and broadening its global reach. This adaptability also spurs long-term job creation by establishing a dedicated blockchain operating firm. By attracting skilled labor and offering training, the B-MVP fortifies the hydrogen sector's workforce. Furthermore, it catalyzes innovative business models, luring more companies and startups, contributing to sustained job growth. For example, data analysis can tailor tariffs to offer demand-centric network capacities to producers and operators, providing tamper-proof pricing options to redistributors and end-customers. Beyond technological and economic progress, the B-MVP amplifies the prominence of national and international standards efforts. The region implementing the B-MVP becomes recognized as a pioneer in climate-friendly, sustainable, and forward-thinking practices, generating interest and attention beyond its geographic boundaries. Additionally, it fosters knowledge transfer between academia and industry, promoting scientific advancements, aligning with innovation management, and nurturing an innovation culture in the hydrogen sector. Through blockchain-hydrogen integration, the B-MVP champions comprehensive innovation, contributing to a sustainable future in the hydrogen industry. Implementation involves evaluating blockchain tech, developing smart contracts, and ensuring interoperability with existing systems. Scalability testing and data format development further validate the B-MVP's potential. BBH2 secures funding under the 'Technology Offensive Hydrogen,' a part of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection's 7th Energy Research Program.

Keywords: Hydrogen, blockchain, sustainability, structural change.

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Authors: Özlem Küçükakça

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The world population is rapidly growing. In the last few decades, environmental protection and climate change have been remarked as a global concern. All events have their own ecological footprint. Therefore, all participants who take part in the events, from event organizer to audience should be responsible for reducing carbon emissions. Currently, there is a literature gap which investigates the relationship between events and environment. Hence, this study is conducted to investigate how to implement environmental sustainability in the event management. Therefore, a wide literature and also the UK festivals database have been investigated. Finally, environmental effects and the solution of reducing impacts at events were discussed.

Keywords: Ecological footprint, environmental sustainability, events, sustainability.

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Authors: Nahed Ayedh Al-Hajeri

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In a world of climate change and limited fossil fuel resources, renewable energy sources are playing an increasingly important role. Due to industrializations and population growth our economy and technologies today largely depend upon natural resources, which are not replaceable. Approximately 90% of our energy consumption comes from fossil fuels (viz. coal, oil and natural gas). The irony is that these resources are depleting. Also, the huge consumption of fossil fuels has caused visible damage to the environment in various forms viz. global warming, acid rains etc.

Keywords: Kilo watt, kilo watt hour, carbon di-oxide, photovoltaic, environmental protection agency, Kwaiti dinar.

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Authors: Inom S. Normatov, Abulqosim Muminov, Parviz I. Normatov

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Problems of food security and the preservation of reserved zones in the region of Central Asia under the conditions of the climate change induced by the placement and construction of large reservoirs are considered. The criteria for the optimum placement and construction of reservoirs that entail the minimum impact on the environment are established. The need for the accounting of climatic parameters is shown by the calculation of the water quantity required for the irrigation of agricultural lands.

Keywords: Reservoir, Central Asia, food, reserved zones, adaptation, agriculture.

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Authors: Paulo S. Caparelli, Eduardo Costa, Alexsandro S. Soares, Hipolito Barbosa

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This paper presents an evolutionary method for designing electronic circuits and numerical methods associated with monitoring systems. The instruments described here have been used in studies of weather and climate changes due to global warming, and also in medical patient supervision. Genetic Programming systems have been used both for designing circuits and sensors, and also for determining sensor parameters. The authors advance the thesis that the software side of such a system should be written in computer languages with a strong mathematical and logic background in order to prevent software obsolescence, and achieve program correctness.

Keywords: Pattern recognition, evolutionary computation, biological signal, functional programming.

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Authors: Douangmala Kounsana, Xiang Wen, Toru Takahashi

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After a strong earthquake occurs, a secondary disaster due to strong aftershocks, flood, landslide or heavy snow can possible to occur and the secondary disaster due to resident-s action also can possible to happen. However, until now seldom researchers have paid attention at it. This paper focused on the Inhabitant-s action after the strong earthquake occurs when a terrible even becomes calm. An inappropriate behavior of people with disadvantaged climate after the worse earthquake can bring a tragedy to their life.

Keywords: Sichuan Earthquake, Secondary Disaster, Inhabitant's Action, inappropriate behavior.

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Authors: A. M. Hasna

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Today global warming, climate change and energy supply are of greater concern as it is widely realized that the planet earth does not provide an infinite capacity for absorbing human industrialization in the 21st century. The aim of this paper is to analyze upstream and downstream electricity production in selected case studies: a coal power plant, a pump system and a microwave oven covering and consumption to explore the position of energy efficiency in engineering sustainability. Collectively, the analysis presents energy efficiency as a major pathway towards sustainability that requires an inclusive and a holistic supply chain response in the engineering design process.

Keywords: Sustainability, technology, efficiency, engineering, energy.

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Authors: Mohammed Sghir Taleb

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Morocco is characterized by a great richness and diversity in aromatic and medicinal plants and it has an ancestral knowledge in the use of plants for medicinal and cosmetic purposes. In effect, the poverty of riparian, specially, mountain populations have greatly contributed to the development of traditional pharmacopoeia in Morocco. The analysis of the bibliographic data showed that a large number of plants in Morocco are exploited for aromatic and medicinal purposes and several of them are commercialized internationally. However, these potentialities of aromatic and medicinal plants are currently subjected to climate change and strong human pressures: Collecting fruits, agriculture development, harvesting plants, urbanization, overgrazing...

Keywords: Aromatic, medicinal, plants, socioeconomy, Morocco.

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Authors: Emily Kislik, Gabriel Mantilla Saltos, Gladys Torres, Mercy Borbor-Córdova

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The Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR) is an internationally-recognized region of consistent upwelling events, high productivity, and rich biodiversity. Despite its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll condition, the archipelago has experienced phytoplankton blooms, especially in the western section between Isabela and Fernandina Islands. However, little is known about how climate variability will affect future phytoplankton standing stock in the Galápagos, and no consistent protocols currently exist to quantify phytoplankton biomass, identify species, or monitor for potential harmful algal blooms (HABs) within the archipelago. This analysis investigates physical, chemical, and biological oceanic variables that contribute to algal blooms within the GMR, using 4 km Aqua MODIS satellite imagery and 0.125-degree wind stress data from January 2003 to December 2016. Furthermore, this study analyzes chlorophyll-a concentrations at varying spatial scales— within the greater archipelago, as well as within five smaller bioregions based on species biodiversity in the GMR. Seasonal and interannual trend analyses, correlations, and hotspot identification were performed. Results demonstrate that chlorophyll-a is expressed in two seasons throughout the year in the GMR, most frequently in September and March, with a notable hotspot in the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Interannual chlorophyll-a trend analyses revealed highest peaks in 2003, 2007, 2013, and 2016, and variables that correlate highly with chlorophyll-a include surface temperature and particulate organic carbon. This study recommends future in situ sampling locations for phytoplankton monitoring, including the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Conclusions from this study contribute to the knowledge of oceanic drivers that catalyze primary productivity and consequently affect species biodiversity within the GMR. Additionally, this research can inform policy and decision-making strategies for species conservation and management within bioregions of the Galápagos.

Keywords: Bioregions, ecological monitoring, phytoplankton, remote sensing.

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Authors: T. Mersmann, P. Nyhuis

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In the current economic climate, for many businesses it is generally no longer sufficient to pursue exclusively economic interests. Instead, integrating ecological and social goals into the corporate targets is becoming ever more important. However, the holistic integration of these new goals is missing from current factory planning approaches. This article describes the conceptual framework for a planning methodology for sustainable factories. To this end, the description of the key areas for action is followed by a description of the principal components for the systematization of sustainability for factories and their stakeholders. Finally, a conceptual framework is presented which integrates the components formulated into an established factory planning procedure.

Keywords: Factory Planning, Stakeholder, Systematization, Sustainability.

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Authors: Kalangi Rodrigo, Kelum Manamendra-Arachchi

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Bones, teeth, and shells have been acknowledged over the last two centuries as evidence of chronology, Palaeo-environment, and human activity. Faunal traces are valid evidence of past situations because they have properties that have not changed over long periods. Sri Lanka has been known as an Island, which has a diverse variety of prehistoric occupation among ecological zones. Defining the Paleoecology of the past societies has been an archaeological thought developed in the 1960s. It is mainly concerned with the reconstruction from available geological and biological evidence of past biota, populations, communities, landscapes, environments, and ecosystems. This early and persistent human fossil, technical, and cultural florescence, as well as a collection of well-preserved tropical-forest rock shelters with associated 'on-site ' Palaeoenvironmental records, makes Sri Lanka a central and unusual case study to determine the extent and strength of early human tropical forest encounters. Excavations carried out in prehistoric caves in the low country wet zone has shown that in the last 50,000 years, the temperature in the lowland rainforests has not exceeded 5 degrees. Based on Semnopithecus Priam (Gray Langur) remains unearthed from wet zone prehistoric caves, it has been argued periods of momentous climate changes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Terminal Pleistocene/Early Holocene boundary, with a recognizable preference for semi-open ‘Intermediate’ rainforest or edges. Continuous genus Acavus and Oligospira occupation along with uninterrupted horizontal pervasive of Canarium sp. (‘kekuna’ nut) have proven that temperatures in the lowland rain forests have not changed by at least 5 °C over the last 50,000 years. Site catchment or territorial analysis cannot be any longer defensible, due to time-distance based factors as well as optimal foraging theory failed as a consequence of prehistoric people were aware of the decrease in cost-benefit ratio and located sites, and generally played out a settlement strategy that minimized the ratio of energy expended to energy produced.

Keywords: Palaeo-environment, palaeo-ecology, palaeo-climate, prehistory, zooarchaeology.

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Authors: Todor Bačkalić, Marinko Maslarić, Milosav Georgijević, Sanja Bojić

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Presented article outlines a rationale, why it is necessary to develop competence about infrastructure risk in water transport. Climate changes are evident and require special attention and global monitoring. Current risk assessment methods for Inland waterway transport just consider some dramatic events. We present a new method for the assessment of risk and vulnerability of inland waterway transport where river depth represents a crucial part. The analysis of water level changes in the lower Danube was done for two significant periods (1965-1979 and 1998-2012).

Keywords: Container ship, draught, probability, the Danube.

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Authors: R. Bourziza, W. El Khoumsi, I. Mghabbar, I. Rahou

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The flood-risk zones called Merjas are lowlands that are flooded during the rainy season. Indeed, these depressed areas were reclaimed to dry them out in order to exploit their agricultural potential. Thus, farmers were able to start exploiting these drained lands. As the development of modern agriculture in Morocco progressed, farmers began to practice irrigated agriculture. In a context of vulnerability to floods and the need for optimal exploitation of the agricultural potential of the flood-risk zones, the question of how farmers are adapting to this context and the degree of exploitation of this potential arises. It is in these circumstances that this work was initiated, aiming at the characterization of irrigation practices in the flood-risk zones of the Ghareb lowland (Morocco). This characterization is based on two main axes: the characterization of irrigation techniques used, as well as the management of irrigation in these areas. In order to achieve our objective, two complementary approaches have been adopted; the first one is based on interviews with administrative agents and on farmer surveys, and the second one is based on field measurements of a few parameters, such as flow rate, pressure, uniformity coefficient of drippers and salinity. The results of this work led to conclude that the choice of the practiced crop (crop resistant to excess water in winter and vegetable crops during other seasons) and the availability and nature of water resources are the main criteria that determine the choice of the irrigation system. Even if irrigation management is imprecise, farmers are able to achieve agricultural yields that are comparable to those recorded in the entire irrigated perimeter. However, agricultural yields in these areas are still threatened by climate change, since these areas play the role of water retaining basins during floods by protecting the downstream areas, which can also damage the crops there instilled during the autumn. This work has also noted that the predominance of private pumping in flood-risk zones in the coastal zone creates a risk of marine intrusion, which risks endangering the groundwater table. Thus, this work enabled us to understand the functioning and the adaptation measures of these vulnerable zones for the sustainability of the Merjas and a better valorization of these marginalized lowlands.

Keywords: Flood-risk zones, irrigation practices, climate change, adaptation measures.

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Authors: Randhir Singh Baghel

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In this work, long-term spatiotemporal changes in rainfall are investigated and assessed at the meteorological divisional level using whole-year data from Rajasthan, India. Data from each of the district's eight tehsils are studied to see how the rainfall pattern has altered over the last 10 years.  We primarily compare information from the Jaipur district in Rajasthan, India, at the tehsil level. We looked at the full year, and from January to December, there was constantly more rain than any other month.  Furthermore, we compare the research of annual and monthly rainfall. Havey rainfall is also shown for two months, July and August.

Keywords: Climate change, temperature, seasonal monsoons, rainfall variability.

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Authors: S. Yessengabulov, A. Uyzbayeva

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Residential buildings fund of Kazakhstan was built in the Soviet time about 35-60 years ago without considering energy efficiency measures. Currently, most of these buildings are in a rundown condition and fail to meet the minimum of hygienic, sanitary and comfortable living requirements. The paper aims to examine the reports of recent building energy survey activities in the country and provide a possible solution for retrofitting existing housing stock built before 1989 which could be applicable for building envelope in cold climate. Methodology also includes two-dimensional modeling of possible practical solutions and further recommendations.

Keywords: Energy audit, energy efficient buildings in Kazakhstan, retrofit, two-dimensional conduction heat transfer analysis

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Authors: A. K. Pathak, K. Ojha

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Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after carbon dioxide. Amount of methane emission from energy sector is increasing day by day with various activities. In present work, various sources of methane emission from upstream, middle stream and downstream of oil & gas sectors are identified and categorised as per IPCC-2006 guidelines. Data were collected from various oil & gas sector like (i) exploration & production of oil & gas (ii) supply through pipelines (iii) refinery throughput & production (iv) storage & transportation (v) usage. Methane emission factors for various categories were determined applying Tier-II and Tier-I approach using the collected data. Total methane emission from Indian Oil & Gas sectors was thus estimated for the year 1990 to 2007.

Keywords: Carbon credit, Climate change, Methane emission, Oil & Gas production

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Authors: Akram Keramat, Behrouz Marivani, Mehdi Samsami

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Drought is a phenomenon caused by environmental and climatic changes. This phenomenon is affected by shortage of rainfall and temperature. Dust is one of important environmental problems caused by climate change and drought. With recent multi-year drought, many environmental crises caused by dust in Iran and Middle East. Dust in the vast areas of the provinces occurs with high frequency. By dust affecting many problems created in terms of health, social and economic. In this study, we tried to study the most important factors causing dust. In this way we have used the satellite images and meteorological data. Finally, strategies to deal with the dust will be mentioned.

Keywords: Drought, Environment, Dust.

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Authors: Neuza Ribeiro, Arménio Rego

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The paper shows how the perceptions of five organizational virtuousness dimensions (optimism, trust, compassion, integrity, and forgiveness) explain organizational citizenship behaviors (altruism, sportsmanship, courtesy, conscientiousness, and civic virtue). A sample comprising 216 individuals from 14 industrial organizations was collected. Individuals reported their perceptions of organizational virtuousness, their organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB) being reported by their supervisors. The main findings are the following: (a) the perceptions of trust predict altruism; (b) the perceptions of integrity predict civic virtue.

Keywords: OCB, organizational virtuousness, psychological climate

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Authors: Arnisa Lushaj, Arvjen Lushaj, Sunitha N. Seenappa, Georgia Butina-Watson, Bashkim Lushaj, Vera Malsia, Dodë Doçi, Mercedes Hunt, Ervin Buçpapaj

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Tourism and coastal lines are the business sectors since centuries especially in the European Nations and Albania is one such spots. However, in recent decades tourism is experienced as vulnerability of the surrounding ecological conditions of air, soil, water, land and the communities that are dependant and sharing the ecosystem among flora and fauna. Experts opine that apart from the maintenance of near-originality of ecological biodiversity the tourism rather known as ecotourism an indigenous socio-cultural maintenance of indigenous/traditional knowledge of the local people must be well cared in order to sustain on sustainable grounds. As a general tendency, growth of tourism has been affected by the deterioration in the economic conditions on one aspect and unsustainable ecological areas affected since human interventions earlier to this has negative impact on futuristic tourist spots. However, tourism in Albania as of now is 11% of GDP and coastal regions accounting to 2-4%. An amicable Mediterranean climate with 300 sunny days similar parameters of Greece and Spain throws up sustainable ecotourism in future decades provided public services namely, transportation, road safety, lodging, food availability, recreational regiments, banking accessibility are as per the World Tourism Organizations- protocols. Thus as of Albanian situation, classification of ecotourism activities to safe-guard the localities with its maintenance of ecological land, water and climate has become a paramount importance with a wanting and satisfactory options through harnessing human energy for profit and fitness of ecological flora and fauna. A check on anthropogenic wastes and their safer utilizations inclusive of agricultural and industrial operations in line with Lalzi Bay Coastal Line are of utmost importance for the reason that the Adriatic Sea Coast is the one long stretch of Albanian Lifeline. The present work is based on the methodology of the sustainable management of the same issue.

Keywords: Albania, ecotourism, Lalzi Bay, sustainability.

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Authors: N.M Khairi, M.I. Naimah, M.S.B. Shah Rizam, M.T. Nooritawati, Z.A. Husna

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Changes in stem diameter of orchid plants were investigated in a control growing climate. Previous studies have focused on stem diameter in relation to plant water on terrestrial plants in order to schedule the irrigation. The objective of this work was to evaluate the ability of the strain gauges to capture changes in the epiphytes plant stem. Experiments were carried out by using the sympodial orchid, Dendrobium Sonia in a stressed condition. From the findings, the sensor can detect changes in the plant stem and the result can easily be used as a reference for further studies for the development of a proper watering system.

Keywords: Strain gauge, stem diameter, Dendrobium Sonia, epiphyte, terrestrial

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Authors: S. Chumkiew, W. Srisang, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee

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This work investigated the phenology of Parah tree (Elateriospermum tapos) using the General Purpose Atmosphere Plant Soil Simulator (GAPS model) to determine the amount of Plant Available Water (PAW) in the soil. We found the correlation between PAW and the timing of budburst and flower burst at Khao Nan National Park, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand. PAW from the GAPS model can be used as an indicator of soil water stress. The low amount of PAW may lead to leaf shedding in Parah trees.

Keywords: Basic GAPS, Parah (Elateriospermum tapos), Phenology, Climate, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand.

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Authors: Valeriya Tyo, Serikbolat Yessengabulov

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Regions with extreme climate conditions such as Astana city require energy saving measures to increase energy performance of buildings which are responsible for more than 40% of total energy consumption. Identification of optimal building geometry is one of key factors to be considered. Architectural form of a building has impact on space heating and cooling energy use, however the interrelationship between the geometry and resultant energy use is not always readily apparent. This paper presents a comparative case study of two prototypical buildings with compact building shape to assess its impact on energy performance.

Keywords: Building geometry, energy efficiency, heat gain, heat loss.

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Authors: María L. Jalón, Feargal Brennan

Abstract:

A non-stationary stochastic optimization methodology is applied to an OWC (oscillating water column) to find the design that maximizes the wave energy extraction. Different temporal cycles are considered to represent the long-term variability of the wave climate at the site in the optimization problem. The results of the non-stationary stochastic optimization problem are compared against those obtained by a stationary stochastic optimization problem. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed non-stationary optimization provides designs with a better fit to reality. However, the stationarity assumption can be adequate when looking at averaged system response.

Keywords: Non-stationary stochastic optimization, oscillating water column, temporal variability, wave energy.

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Authors: S. Sarumathi, N. Shanthi, S. Vidhya

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In the present world, predicting rainfall is considered to be an essential and also a challenging task. Normally, the climate and rainfall are presumed to have non-linear as well as intricate phenomena. For predicting accurate rainfall, we necessitate advanced computer modeling and simulation. When there is an enhanced understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation then it becomes enrichment to applications such as hydrologic, climatic and ecological. Conversely, there may be some kind of challenges occur in the community due to some application which results in the absence of consistent precipitation observation in remote and also emerging region. This survey paper provides a multifarious collection of methodologies which are epitomized by various researchers for predicting the rainfall. It also gives information about some technique to forecast rainfall, which is appropriate to all methods like numerical, traditional and statistical.

Keywords: Satellite Image, Segmentation, Feature Extraction, Classification, Clustering, Precipitation Estimation.

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Authors: Z. Pavlík, J. Kočí, M. Pavlíková, R. Černý

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Combined experimental and computational analysis of hygrothermal performance of an interior thermal insulation system applied on a brick wall is presented in the paper. In the experimental part, the functionality of the insulation system is tested at simulated difference climate conditions using a semi-scale device. The measured temperature and relative humidity profiles are used for the calibration of computer code HEMOT that is finally applied for a long-term hygrothermal analysis of the investigated structure.

Keywords: Additional thermal insulation, hygrothermal analysis, semi-scale testing, long-term computational analysis

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Authors: Mahsa Karimpour, Martin Belusko, Ke Xing, Frank Bruno

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Traditionally, the embodied energy of design choices which reduce operational energy were assumed to have a negligible impact on the life cycle energy of buildings. However with new buildings having considerably lower operational energy, the significance of embodied energy increases. A life cycle assessment of a population of house designs was conducted in a mild and mixed climate zone. It was determined not only that embodied energy dominates life cycle energy, but that the impact on embodied of design choices was of equal significance to the impact on operational energy.

Keywords: Building life cycle energy, embodied energy, energy design measures, low energy buildings.

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Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

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The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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