@article{(Open Science Index):https://publications.waset.org/pdf/15033,
	  title     = {Forecasting Malaria Cases in Bujumbura},
	  author    = {Hermenegilde Nkurunziza and  Albrecht Gebhardt and  Juergen Pilz},
	  country	= {},
	  institution	= {},
	  abstract     = {The focus in this work is to assess which method
allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi)
when taking into account association between climatic factors and
the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both
malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and
analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our
objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases
to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future
observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared
leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average
percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing
state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed
	    journal   = {International Journal of Mathematical and Computational Sciences},
	  volume    = {4},
	  number    = {1},
	  year      = {2010},
	  pages     = {14 - 19},
	  ee        = {https://publications.waset.org/pdf/15033},
	  url   	= {https://publications.waset.org/vol/37},
	  bibsource = {https://publications.waset.org/},
	  issn  	= {eISSN: 1307-6892},
	  publisher = {World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology},
	  index 	= {Open Science Index 37, 2010},