Search results for: False negative rate
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3635

Search results for: False negative rate

3545 Rail-To-Rail Output Op-Amp Design with Negative Miller Capacitance Compensation

Authors: Muhaned Zaidi, Ian Grout, Abu Khari bin A’ain

Abstract:

In this paper, a two-stage op-amp design is considered using both Miller and negative Miller compensation techniques. The first op-amp design uses Miller compensation around the second amplification stage, whilst the second op-amp design uses negative Miller compensation around the first stage and Miller compensation around the second amplification stage. The aims of this work were to compare the gain and phase margins obtained using the different compensation techniques and identify the ability to choose either compensation technique based on a particular set of design requirements. The two op-amp designs created are based on the same two-stage rail-to-rail output CMOS op-amp architecture where the first stage of the op-amp consists of differential input and cascode circuits, and the second stage is a class AB amplifier. The op-amps have been designed using a 0.35mm CMOS fabrication process.

Keywords: Op-amp, rail-to-rail output, Miller compensation, negative Miller capacitance.

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3544 Genetic Algorithm for In-Theatre Military Logistics Search-and-Delivery Path Planning

Authors: Jean Berger, Mohamed Barkaoui

Abstract:

Discrete search path planning in time-constrained uncertain environment relying upon imperfect sensors is known to be hard, and current problem-solving techniques proposed so far to compute near real-time efficient path plans are mainly bounded to provide a few move solutions. A new information-theoretic –based open-loop decision model explicitly incorporating false alarm sensor readings, to solve a single agent military logistics search-and-delivery path planning problem with anticipated feedback is presented. The decision model consists in minimizing expected entropy considering anticipated possible observation outcomes over a given time horizon. The model captures uncertainty associated with observation events for all possible scenarios. Entropy represents a measure of uncertainty about the searched target location. Feedback information resulting from possible sensor observations outcomes along the projected path plan is exploited to update anticipated unit target occupancy beliefs. For the first time, a compact belief update formulation is generalized to explicitly include false positive observation events that may occur during plan execution. A novel genetic algorithm is then proposed to efficiently solve search path planning, providing near-optimal solutions for practical realistic problem instances. Given the run-time performance of the algorithm, natural extension to a closed-loop environment to progressively integrate real visit outcomes on a rolling time horizon can be easily envisioned. Computational results show the value of the approach in comparison to alternate heuristics.

Keywords: Search path planning, false alarm, search-and-delivery, entropy, genetic algorithm.

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3543 Empirical Analyses of Determinants of D.J.S.I.US Mean Returns

Authors: Nikolaos Sariannidis, Grigoris Giannarakis, Nikolaos Litinas, Nikos Kartalis

Abstract:

This study investigates the relationship between 10 year bond value, Yen/U.S dollar exchange rate, non-farm payrolls (all employs) and crude oil to U.S. Dow Jones Sustainability Index. A GARCH model is used to test these relationships for the period January 1st 1999 to January 31st 2008 using monthly data. Results show that an increase of the 10 year bond and non farm payrolls (all employs) lead to an increase of the D.J.S.I returns. On the contrary the volatility of the Yen/U.S dollar exchange rates as well as the increase of crude oil returns has negative effects on the U.S D.J.S.I returns. This study aims at assisting investors to understand the influences certain macroeconomic indicators have on the companies- stock returns as reported by the D.J.S.I.

Keywords: Bond value, Corporate Social Responsibility, Crudeoil, D.J.S.I United States, Exchange rate, GARCH, Non-farmpayrolls.

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3542 The Rank-scaled Mutation Rate for Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Mike Sewell, Jagath Samarabandu, Ranga Rodrigo, Kenneth McIsaac

Abstract:

A novel method of individual level adaptive mutation rate control called the rank-scaled mutation rate for genetic algorithms is introduced. The rank-scaled mutation rate controlled genetic algorithm varies the mutation parameters based on the rank of each individual within the population. Thereby the distribution of the fitness of the papulation is taken into consideration in forming the new mutation rates. The best fit mutate at the lowest rate and the least fit mutate at the highest rate. The complexity of the algorithm is of the order of an individual adaptation scheme and is lower than that of a self-adaptation scheme. The proposed algorithm is tested on two common problems, namely, numerical optimization of a function and the traveling salesman problem. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms both the fixed and deterministic mutation rate schemes. It is best suited for problems with several local optimum solutions without a high demand for excessive mutation rates.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, mutation rate control, adaptive mutation.

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3541 New Dynamic Constitutive Model for OFHC Copper Film

Authors: Jin Sung Kim, Hoon Huh

Abstract:

The material properties of OFHC copper film was investigated with the High-Speed Material Micro Testing Machine (HSMMTM) at the high strain rates. The rate-dependent stress-strain curves from the experiment and the Johnson−Cook curve fitting showed large discrepancies as the plastic strain increases since the constitutive model implies no rate-dependent strain hardening effect. A new constitutive model was proposed in consideration of rate-dependent strain hardening effect. The strain rate hardening term in the new constitutive model consists of the strain rate sensitivity coefficients of the yield strength and strain hardening.

Keywords: Rate dependent material properties, Dynamic constitutive model, OFHC copper film, Strain rate.

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3540 Deposition Rate and Energy Enhancements of TiN Thin-Film in a Magnetized Sheet Plasma Source

Authors: Hamdi Muhyuddin D. Barra, Henry J. Ramos

Abstract:

Titanium nitride (TiN) has been synthesized using the sheet plasma negative ion source (SPNIS). The parameters used for its effective synthesis has been determined from previous experiments and studies. In this study, further enhancement of the deposition rate of TiN synthesis and advancement of the SPNIS operation is presented. This is primarily achieved by the addition of Sm-Co permanent magnets and a modification of the configuration in the TiN deposition process. The magnetic enhancement is aimed at optimizing the sputtering rate and the sputtering yield of the process. The Sm-Co permanent magnets are placed below the Ti target for better sputtering by argon. The Ti target is biased from –250V to – 350V and is sputtered by Ar plasma produced at discharge current of 2.5–4A and discharge potential of 60–90V. Steel substrates of dimensions 20x20x0.5mm3 were prepared with N2:Ar volumetric ratios of 1:3, 1:5 and 1:10. Ocular inspection of samples exhibit bright gold color associated with TiN. XRD characterization confirmed the effective TiN synthesis as all samples exhibit the (200) and (311) peaks of TiN and the non-stoichiometric Ti2N (220) facet. Cross-sectional SEM results showed increase in the TiN deposition rate of up to 0.35μm/min. This doubles what was previously obtained [1]. Scanning electron micrograph results give a comparative morphological picture of the samples. Vickers hardness results gave the largest hardness value of 21.094GPa.

Keywords: Chemical vapor deposition, Magnetized sheetplasma, Thin-film synthesis, Titanium nitride.

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3539 Exchange Rate Volatility, Its Determinants and Effects on the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Onyinye S. Ugwuanyi, Kenneth A. Okpala

Abstract:

This study evaluated the effect of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria. The flow and stock market theories of exchange rate determination was adopted considering macroeconomic determinants such as balance of trade, trade openness, and net international investment. Furthermore, the influence of changes in parallel exchange rate, official exchange rate and real effective exchange rate was modeled on the manufacturing sector output. Vector autoregression techniques and vector error correction mechanism were adopted to explore the macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate fluctuation in Nigeria and to examine the influence of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. The exchange rate showed an unstable and volatile movement in Nigeria. Official exchange rate significantly impacted on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria and shock to previous manufacturing sector output caused 60.76% of the fluctuation in the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. Trade balance, trade openness and net international investments did not significantly determine exchange rate in Nigeria. However, own shock accounted for about 95% of the variation of exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and long-run. Among other macroeconomic variables, net international investment accounted for about 2.85% variation of the real effective exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and in the long-run. Monetary authorities should maintain stability of the exchange rates through proper management so as to encourage local production and government should formulate and implement policies that will develop other sectors of the economy as this will widen the country’s revenue base, reduce our over reliance on oil sector for our foreign exchange earnings and in turn reduce the shocks on our domestic economy.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, exchange rate determinants, manufacturing sector, official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate, real effective exchange rate.

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3538 A Novel Computer Vision Method for Evaluating Deformations of Fibers Cross Section in False Twist Textured Yarns

Authors: Dariush Semnani, Mehdi Ahangareianabhari, Hossein Ghayoor

Abstract:

In recent five decades, textured yarns of polyester fiber produced by false twist method are the most important and mass-produced manmade fibers. There are many parameters of cross section which affect the physical and mechanical properties of textured yarns. These parameters are surface area, perimeter, equivalent diameter, large diameter, small diameter, convexity, stiffness, eccentricity, and hydraulic diameter. These parameters were evaluated by digital image processing techniques. To find trends between production criteria and evaluated parameters of cross section, three criteria of production line have been adjusted and different types of yarns were produced. These criteria are temperature, drafting ratio, and D/Y ratio. Finally the relations between production criteria and cross section parameters were considered. The results showed that the presented technique can recognize and measure the parameters of fiber cross section in acceptable accuracy. Also, the optimum condition of adjustments has been estimated from results of image analysis evaluation.

Keywords: Computer Vision, Cross Section Analysis, Fibers Deformation, Textured Yarn

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3537 Currency Boards in Crisis: Experience of Baltic Countries

Authors: Gordana Kordić, Petra Palić

Abstract:

The European countries that during the past two decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the transition process towards the monetary union membership. The focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them (Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime with another. The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments, these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long term influence that the measures had on the national economy.

Keywords: Currency Board Arrangement, internal devaluation, exchange rate regime, Great recession.

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3536 A Bathtub Curve from Nonparametric Model

Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

Abstract:

This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: Bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution.

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3535 Methods of Estimating the Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)

Authors: Pavla Ruzickova, Petr Teply

Abstract:

There are many debates now regarding undervalued and overvalued currencies currently traded on the world financial market. This paper contributes to these debates from a theoretical point of view. We present the three most commonly used methods of estimating the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (REER): macroeconomic balance approach, external sustainability approach and equilibrium real effective exchange rate approach in the reduced form. Moreover, we discuss key concepts of the calculation of the real exchange rate (RER) based on applied explanatory variables: nominal exchange rates, terms of trade and tradable and non-tradable goods. Last but not least, we discuss the three main driving forces behind real exchange rates movements which include terms of trade, relative productivity growth and the interest rate differential.

Keywords: real exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange, terms of trade

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3534 Effect of Dose Rate of Irradiation on Ultrastructure of Duodenal Mucosa

Authors: L. Labéjof, I. Mororó, P. Galle, G. Barbosa, M.I. Severo, A.H. de Oliveira

Abstract:

Ultrastructure of duodenum mucosa of irradiated rat was studied versus dose rate of irradiation following exposure to gamma rays from 60-Cobalt source. The animals were whole body irradiated at two dose rates (1 Gy.mn-1 and 1 Gy.h-1) and three total doses (1, 2 or 4 Gy) for each dose rate. 24 or 48 h after irradiation, their small intestine was removed and samples of duodenum were processed for observations under a transmission electron microscopy. Samples of duodenum mucosa of control rats were processed in the same way. For the lower dose rate of 1 Gy.h-1, main lesions characteristic of apoptosis were detected within irradiated enterocytes at a total dose of 2 Gy and 24 h after exposure. Necrosis was noted in the samples, 48 h after exposition. For the higher dose rate of 1 Gy.mn-1, fewer changes were detected at all total doses 24 or 48 h irradiation. Thus, it was shown that the appearance of radiationinduced alterations varies not only with increasing total dose and post-irradiation time but especially with decreasing dose rate.

Keywords: Dose rate, Radiation Inury, Apoptosis, SmallBowel

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3533 Computer Countenanced Diagnosis of Skin Nodule Detection and Histogram Augmentation: Extracting System for Skin Cancer

Authors: S. Zith Dey Babu, S. Kour, S. Verma, C. Verma, V. Pathania, A. Agrawal, V. Chaudhary, A. Manoj Puthur, R. Goyal, A. Pal, T. Danti Dey, A. Kumar, K. Wadhwa, O. Ved

Abstract:

Background: Skin cancer is now is the buzzing button in the field of medical science. The cyst's pandemic is drastically calibrating the body and well-being of the global village. Methods: The extracted image of the skin tumor cannot be used in one way for diagnosis. The stored image contains anarchies like the center. This approach will locate the forepart of an extracted appearance of skin. Partitioning image models has been presented to sort out the disturbance in the picture. Results: After completing partitioning, feature extraction has been formed by using genetic algorithm and finally, classification can be performed between the trained and test data to evaluate a large scale of an image that helps the doctors for the right prediction. To bring the improvisation of the existing system, we have set our objectives with an analysis. The efficiency of the natural selection process and the enriching histogram is essential in that respect. To reduce the false-positive rate or output, GA is performed with its accuracy. Conclusions: The objective of this task is to bring improvisation of effectiveness. GA is accomplishing its task with perfection to bring down the invalid-positive rate or outcome. The paper's mergeable portion conflicts with the composition of deep learning and medical image processing, which provides superior accuracy. Proportional types of handling create the reusability without any errors.

Keywords: Computer-aided system, detection, image segmentation, morphology.

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3532 A Comparison of Signal Processing Techniques for the Extraction of Breathing Rate from the Photoplethysmogram

Authors: Susannah G. Fleming Lionel Tarassenko

Abstract:

The photoplethysmogram (PPG) is the pulsatile waveform produced by the pulse oximeter, which is widely used for monitoring arterial oxygen saturation in patients. Various methods for extracting the breathing rate from the PPG waveform have been compared using a consistent data set, and a novel technique using autoregressive modelling is presented. This novel technique is shown to outperform the existing techniques, with a mean error in breathing rate of 0.04 breaths per minute.

Keywords: Autoregressive modelling, breathing rate, photoplethysmogram, pulse oximetry.

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3531 Using the Simple Fixed Rate Approach to Solve Economic Lot Scheduling Problem under the Basic Period Approach

Authors: Yu-Jen Chang, Yun Chen, Hei-Lam Wong

Abstract:

The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem (ELSP) is a valuable mathematical model that can support decision-makers to make scheduling decisions. The basic period approach is effective for solving the ELSP. The assumption for applying the basic period approach is that a product must use its maximum production rate to be produced. However, a product can lower its production rate to reduce the average total cost when a facility has extra idle time. The past researches discussed how a product adjusts its production rate under the common cycle approach. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have addressed how a product lowers its production rate under the basic period approach. This research is the first paper to discuss this topic. The research develops a simple fixed rate approach that adjusts the production rate of a product under the basic period approach to solve the ELSP. Our numerical example shows our approach can find a better solution than the traditional basic period approach. Our mathematical model that applies the fixed rate approach under the basic period approach can serve as a reference for other related researches.

Keywords: Economic Lot, Basic Period, Genetic Algorithm, Fixed Rate.

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3530 The Importance of Applying Established Web Site Design Principles on an Online Performance Management System

Authors: R. W. Brown, P. J. Blignaut

Abstract:

An online performance management system was evaluated, and recommendations were made to improve the system. The study shows the effects of not adhering to the established web design principles and conventions. Furthermore, the study indicates that if the online performance management system is not well designed, it may have negative effects on the overall usability of the system and these negative effects will have consequences for both the employer and employees. The evaluation was done in terms of the usability metrics of effectiveness, efficiency and user satisfaction. Effectiveness was measured in terms of the success rate with which users could execute prescribed tasks in a sandbox system. Efficiency was expressed in terms of the time it took participants to understand what is expected of them and to execute the tasks. Post-test questionnaires were used in order to determine the satisfaction of the participants. Recommendations were made to improve the usability of the online performance management system.

Keywords: Eye tracking, human resource management, performance management, usability.

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3529 Extended Well-Founded Semantics in Bilattices

Authors: Daniel Stamate

Abstract:

One of the most used assumptions in logic programming and deductive databases is the so-called Closed World Assumption (CWA), according to which the atoms that cannot be inferred from the programs are considered to be false (i.e. a pessimistic assumption). One of the most successful semantics of conventional logic programs based on the CWA is the well-founded semantics. However, the CWA is not applicable in all circumstances when information is handled. That is, the well-founded semantics, if conventionally defined, would behave inadequately in different cases. The solution we adopt in this paper is to extend the well-founded semantics in order for it to be based also on other assumptions. The basis of (default) negative information in the well-founded semantics is given by the so-called unfounded sets. We extend this concept by considering optimistic, pessimistic, skeptical and paraconsistent assumptions, used to complete missing information from a program. Our semantics, called extended well-founded semantics, expresses also imperfect information considered to be missing/incomplete, uncertain and/or inconsistent, by using bilattices as multivalued logics. We provide a method of computing the extended well-founded semantics and show that Kripke-Kleene semantics is captured by considering a skeptical assumption. We show also that the complexity of the computation of our semantics is polynomial time.

Keywords: Logic programs, imperfect information, multivalued logics, bilattices, assumptions.

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3528 The Effect of User Comments on Traffic Application Usage

Authors: I. Gokasar, G. Bakioglu

Abstract:

With the unprecedented rates of technological improvements, people start to solve their problems with the help of technological tools. According to application stores and websites in which people evaluate and comment on the traffic apps, there are more than 100 traffic applications which have different features with respect to their purpose of usage ranging from the features of traffic apps for public transit modes to the features of traffic apps for private cars. This study focuses on the top 30 traffic applications which were chosen with respect to their download counts. All data about the traffic applications were obtained from related websites. The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic applications in terms of their categorical attributes with the help of developing a regression model. The analysis results suggest that negative interpretations (e.g., being deficient) does not lead to lower star ratings of the applications. However, those negative interpretations result in a smaller increase in star rate. In addition, women use higher star rates than men for the evaluation of traffic applications.

Keywords: Traffic App, real–time information, traffic congestion, regression analysis, dummy variables.

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3527 Performance of On-site Earthquake Early Warning Systems for Different Sensor Locations

Authors: Ting-Yu Hsu, Shyu-Yu Wu, Shieh-Kung Huang, Hung-Wei Chiang, Kung-Chun Lu, Pei-Yang Lin, Kuo-Liang Wen

Abstract:

Regional earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are not suitable for Taiwan, as most destructive seismic hazards arise due to in-land earthquakes. These likely cause the lead-time provided by regional EEW systems before a destructive earthquake wave arrives to become null. On the other hand, an on-site EEW system can provide more lead-time at a region closer to an epicenter, since only seismic information of the target site is required. Instead of leveraging the information of several stations, the on-site system extracts some P-wave features from the first few seconds of vertical ground acceleration of a single station and performs a prediction of the oncoming earthquake intensity at the same station according to these features. Since seismometers could be triggered by non-earthquake events such as a passing of a truck or other human activities, to reduce the likelihood of false alarms, a seismometer was installed at three different locations on the same site and the performance of the EEW system for these three sensor locations were discussed. The results show that the location on the ground of the first floor of a school building maybe a good choice, since the false alarms could be reduced and the cost for installation and maintenance is the lowest.

Keywords: Earthquake early warning, Single station approach, Seismometer location.

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3526 Simulation of the Asphaltene Deposition Rate in a Wellbore Blockage via Computational Fluid Dynamics

Authors: Xiaodong Gao, Pingchuan Dong, Qichao Gao

Abstract:

This work attempts to predict the deposition rate of asphaltene particles in blockage tube through CFD simulation. The Euler-Lagrange equation has been applied during the flow of crude oil and asphaltene particles. The net gravitational force, virtual mass, pressure gradient, Saffman lift, and drag forces are incorporated in the simulations process. Validation of CFD simulation results is compared to the benchmark experiments from the previous literature. Furthermore, the effects of blockage location, blockage length, and blockage thickness on deposition rate are also analyzed. The simulation results indicate that the maximum deposition rate of asphaltene occurs in the blocked tube section, and the greater the deposition thickness, the greater the deposition rate. Moreover, the deposition amount and maximum deposition rate along the length of the tube have the same trend. Results of this study are in the ability to better understand the deposition of asphaltene particles in production and help achieve to deal with the asphaltene challenges.

Keywords: Asphaltene deposition rate, blockage length, blockage thickness, blockage diameter, transient condition.

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3525 A Study of Factors Affecting the Elapsed Time of Housing Renewal Project Implementation in Seoul

Authors: In Su Na, Gunwon Lee, Seiyong Kim

Abstract:

This study analyzed the effect of area variables and economic variables on the length of each period of the project in order to analyze the effect of agreement rate on project implementation in housing renewal projects. In conclusion, as can be seen from these results, a low agreement rate may not translate into project promotion, and a higher agreement rate may not translate into project delay. The expectation of the policy is that the lower the agreement rate, the more projects would be promoted, but that is not the actual effect. From a policy consistency viewpoint, changing the agreement rate frequently, depending on the decision of the public, is not reasonable. The policy of using agreement rate as a necessary condition for project implementation should be reconsidered.

Keywords: Area and Economic Variables, Elapsed time, Housing Renewal Project.

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3524 Modulation Identification Algorithm for Adaptive Demodulator in Software Defined Radios Using Wavelet Transform

Authors: P. Prakasam, M. Madheswaran

Abstract:

A generalized Digital Modulation Identification algorithm for adaptive demodulator has been developed and presented in this paper. The algorithm developed is verified using wavelet Transform and histogram computation to identify QPSK and QAM with GMSK and M–ary FSK modulations. It has been found that the histogram peaks simplifies the procedure for identification. The simulated results show that the correct modulation identification is possible to a lower bound of 5 dB and 12 dB for GMSK and QPSK respectively. When SNR is above 5 dB the throughput of the proposed algorithm is more than 97.8%. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) has been computed to measure the performance of the proposed algorithm and the analysis shows that the probability of detection (Pd) drops rapidly when SNR is 5 dB and probability of false alarm (Pf) is smaller than 0.3. The performance of the proposed algorithm has been compared with existing methods and found it will identify all digital modulation schemes with low SNR.

Keywords: Bit Error rate, Receiver Operating Characteristics, Software Defined Radio, Wavelet Transform.

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3523 Optimal Policy for a Deteriorating Inventory Model with Finite Replenishment Rate and with Price Dependant Demand Rate and Cycle Length Dependant Price

Authors: Hamed Sabahno

Abstract:

In this paper, an inventory model with finite and constant replenishment rate, price dependant demand rate, time value of money and inflation, finite time horizon, lead time and exponential deterioration rate and with the objective of maximizing the present worth of the total system profit is developed. Using a dynamic programming based solution algorithm, the optimal sequence of the cycles can be found and also different optimal selling prices, optimal order quantities and optimal maximum inventories can be obtained for the cycles with unequal lengths, which have never been done before for this model. Also, a numerical example is used to show accuracy of the solution procedure.

Keywords: Deteriorating items, Dynamic programming, Finitereplenishment rate, Inventory control, Operation Research.

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3522 An Expectation of the Rate of Inflation According to Inflation-Unemployment Interaction in Croatia

Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Snježana Pivac, Boško Šego

Abstract:

According to the interaction of inflation and unemployment, expectation of the rate of inflation in Croatia is estimated. The interaction between inflation and unemployment is shown by model based on three first-order differential i.e. difference equations: Phillips relation, adaptive expectations equation and monetary-policy equation. The resulting equation is second order differential i.e. difference equation which describes the time path of inflation. The data of the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment are used for parameters estimation. On the basis of the estimated time paths, the stability and convergence analysis is done for the rate of inflation.

Keywords: Differencing, inflation, time path, unemployment.

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3521 The Mechanical Response of a Composite Propellant under Harsh Conditions

Authors: Xin Tong, Jin-sheng Xu, Xiong Chen, Ya Zheng

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to study the mechanical properties of HTPB (Hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene) composite propellant under harsh conditions. It describes two tests involving uniaxial tensile tests of various strain rates (ranging from 0.0005 s-1 to 1.5 s-1), temperatures (ranging from 223 K to 343 K) and high-cycle fatigue tests under low-temperature (223 K, frequencies were set at 50, 100, 150 Hz) using DMA (Dynamic Mechanical Analyzer). To highlight the effect of small pre-strain on fatigue properties of HTPB propellant, quasi-static stretching was carried out before fatigue loading, and uniaxial tensile tests at constant strain rates were successively applied. The results reveal that flow stress of propellant increases with reduction in temperature and rise in strain rate, and the strain rate-temperature equivalence relationship could be described by TTSP (time-temperature superposition principle) incorporating a modified WLF equation. Moreover, the rate of performance degradations and damage accumulation of propellant during fatigue tests increased with increasing strain amplitude and loading frequencies, while initial quasi-static loading has a negative effect on fatigue properties by comparing stress-strain relations after fatigue tests.

Keywords: Fatigue, HTPB propellant, tensile properties, time-temperature superposition principle.

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3520 An Evaluation of Sputum Smear Conversion and Haematological Parameter Alteration in Early Detection Period of New Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) Patients

Authors: Tasnuva Tamanna, Sanjida Halim Topa

Abstract:

Sputum smear conversion after one month of antituberculosis therapy in new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients (PTB+) is a vital indicator towards treatment success. The objective of this study is to determine the rate of sputum smear conversion in new PTB+ patients after one month under treatment of National Institute of Diseases of the Chest and Hospital (NIDCH). Analysis of sputum smear conversion was done by re-clinical examination with sputum smear microscopic test after one month. Socio-demographic and hematological parameters were evaluated to perceive the correlation with the disease status. Among all enrolled patients only 33.33% were available for follow up diagnosis and of them only 42.86% patients turned to smear negative. Probably this consequence is due to non-coherence to the proper disease management. 66.67% and 78.78% patients reported low haemoglobin and packed cell volume level respectively whereas 80% and 93.33% patients accounted accelerated platelet count and erythrocyte sedimentation rate correspondingly.

Keywords: Followed up patients, PTB+ patients, sputum smear conversion, and sputum smear microscopic test.

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3519 CFD Modeling of Reduction in NOX Emission Using HiTAC Technique

Authors: Abbas Khoshhal, Masoud Rahimi, Sayed Reza Shabanian, Ammar Abdulaziz Alsairafi

Abstract:

In the present study, the rate of NOx emission in a combustion chamber working in conventional combustion and High Temperature Air Combustion (HiTAC) system are examined using CFD modeling. The effect of peak temperature, combustion air temperature and oxygen concentration on NOx emission rate was undertaken. Results show that in a fixed oxygen concentration, increasing the preheated air temperature will increase the peak temperature and NOx emission rate. In addition, it was observed that the reduction of the oxygen concentration in the fixed preheated air temperature decreases the peak temperature and NOx emission rate. On the other hand, the results show that increase of preheated air temperature at various oxygen concentrations increases the NOx emission rate. However, the rate of increase in HiTAC conditions is quite lower than the conventional combustion. The modeling results show that the NOx emission rate in HiTAC combustion is 133% less than that of the conventional combustion.

Keywords: CFD Modeling, HiTAC, NOx, Combustion.

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3518 Detecting Financial Bubbles Using Gap between Common Stocks and Preferred Stocks

Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

Abstract:

How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: Financial bubbles, detection, preferred stocks, pairs trading, future return, forecast.

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3517 Soil Respiration Rate of Laurel-Leaved and Cryptomeria japonica Forests

Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani

Abstract:

We assessed the ecology of the organic and mineral soil layers of laurel-leaved (BB-1) and Cryptomeria japonica (BB-2 and Pw) forests in the Kasugayama Hill Primeval Forest (Nara, Japan). The soil respiration rate was higher in the deeper horizons (F and H) of organic layers than in those of mineral soil layers, suggesting organic layers may be where active microbial metabolism occurs. Respiration rates in the soil of BB-1, BB-2 and Pw forests were closely similar at 5 and 10°C. However, the soil respiration rate increased in proportion to temperatures of 15°C or above. We therefore consider the activity of soil microorganisms to markedly decrease at temperatures below 10°C. At a temperature of 15°C or above, the soil respiration rate in the BB-1 organic layers was higher than in those of the BB-2 and Pw organic layers, due to differences in forest vegetation that appeared to influence several salient soil properties, particularly pH and the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content of the F and H horizons.

Keywords: Forest soil, mineralization rate, soil respiration rate.

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3516 The Fatigue Damage Accumulation on Systems of Concentrators

Authors: Alexander Urbach, Mukharbij Banov, Vladislav Turko

Abstract:

Fatigue tests of specimen-s with numerous holes are presented. The tests were made up till fatigue cracks have been created on both sides of the hole. Their extension was stopping with pressed plastic deformation at the mouth of the detected crack. It is shown that the moments of occurrence of cracks on holes are stochastically dependent. This dependence has positive and negative correlation relations. Shown that the positive correlation is formed across of the applied force, while negative one – along it. The negative relationship extends over a greater distance. The mathematical model of dependence area formation is represented as well as the estimating of model parameters. The positive correlation of fatigue cracks origination can be considered as an extension of one main crack. With negative correlation the first crack locates the place of its origin, leading to the appearance of multiple cracks; do not merge with each other.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, fatigue damage accumulation, local area, mathematical model.

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