Search results for: Gibbs excess energy model

Authors: Brice Nya, Detlef Schulz

Abstract:

Any use of energy in industrial productive activities is combined with various environment impacts. Withintransportation, this fact was not only found among land transport, railways and maritime transport, but also in the air transport industry. An effective climate protection requires strategies and measures for reducing all greenhouses gas emissions, in particular carbon dioxide, and must take into account the economic, ecologic and social aspects. It seem simperative now to develop and manufacture environmentally friendly products and systems, to reduce consumption and use less resource, and to save energy and power. Today-sproducts could better serve these requirements taking into account the integration of a power management system into the electrical power system.This paper gives an overview of an approach ofpower management with load prioritization in modernaircraft. Load dimensioning and load management strategies on current civil aircraft will be presented and used as a basis for the proposed approach.

Keywords: Load management, power management, electrical load analysis, flight mission, power load profile.

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Authors: Pipat Lounglawan, Yutthapong Sornwongkaew, Wassana Lounglawan, Wisitiporn Suksombat

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The experiment was then conducted to investigate the effect of cassava peel addition in the concentrate on the performance of lactating dairy cows. Twenty four Holstein Friesian crossbred (>87.5% Holstein Friesian) lactating dairy cows in mid lactation; averaging 12.2+2.1 kg of milk, 119+45 days in milk, 44.1+6.2 months old and 449+33 kg live weight, were stratified for milk yield, days in milk, age, stage of lactation and body weight, and then randomly allocated to three treatment groups. The first, second and third groups were fed concentrates containing the respective cassava peel, 0, 20 and 40%. All cows were fed ad libitum corn silage and freely access to clean water. Dry matter intake, 4%FCM, milk composition and body weight change were affected (P<0.05) by the third treatments (40%). The present study indicated that 20% cassava peel can be used in the concentrate for lactating dairy cows.

Keywords: Cassava peel, Energy evaluation, Milk production, Dairy cattle

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Authors: Muhammad Javed, Yalemisew M. Abgaz, Claus Pahl

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Ontology-based modelling of multi-formatted software application content is a challenging area in content management. When the number of software content unit is huge and in continuous process of change, content change management is important. The management of content in this context requires targeted access and manipulation methods. We present a novel approach to deal with model-driven content-centric information systems and access to their content. At the core of our approach is an ontology-based semantic annotation technique for diversely formatted content that can improve the accuracy of access and systems evolution. Domain ontologies represent domain-specific concepts and conform to metamodels. Different ontologies - from application domain ontologies to software ontologies - capture and model the different properties and perspectives on a software content unit. Interdependencies between domain ontologies, the artifacts and the content are captured through a trace model. The annotation traces are formalised and a graph-based system is selected for the representation of the annotation traces.

Keywords: Consistent Content Management, Impact Categorisation, Trace Model, Ontology Evolution

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Authors: C. Umpuch, N. Bunmanan, U. Kueasing, P. Kaewsan

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This work was to study batch biosorption of Pb(II) ions from aqueous solution by Luffa charcoal. The effect of operating parameters such as adsorption contact time, initial pH solution and different initial Pb(II) concentration on the sorption of Pb(II) were investigated. The results showed that the adsorption of Pb(II) ions was initially rapid and the equilibrium time was 10 h. Adsorption kinetics of Pb(II) ions onto Luffa charcoal could be best described by the pseudo-second order model. At pH 5.0 was favorable for the adsorption and removal of Pb(II) ions. Freundlich adsorption isotherm model was better fitted for the adsorption of Pb(II) ions than Langmuir and Timkin isotherms, respectively. The highest monolayer adsorption capacity obtained from Langmuir isotherm model was 51.02 mg/g. This study demonstrated that Luffa charcoal could be used for the removal of Pb(II) ions in water treatment.

Keywords: Lead (II), Luffa charcoal, Biosorption, initial pHsolution, contact time, adsorption isotherm.

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Authors: Adrian T.

Abstract:

In this paper a three dimensional thermal model of a power toroidal transformer is proposed for both steady-state or transient conditions. The influence of electric current and ambient temperature on the temperature distribution, has been investigated. To validate the three dimensional thermal model, some experimental tests have been done. There is a good correlation between experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: Temperature distribution, thermal analysis, toroidal transformer.

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Authors: Khaing Yadana Swe, Lillie Dewan

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At present, the cascade PID control is widely used to control the superheating temperature (main steam temperature). As Main Steam Temperature has the characteristics of large inertia, large time-delay and time varying, etc., conventional PID control strategy cannot achieve good control performance. In order to overcome the bad performance and deficiencies of main steam temperature control system, Model Free Adaptive Control (MFAC) - P cascade control system is proposed in this paper. By substituting MFAC in PID of the main control loop of the main steam temperature control, it can overcome time delays, non-linearity, disturbance and time variation.

Keywords: Model free Adaptive Control, Cascade Control, Adaptive Control, PID.

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Authors: A. M. El-Zonkoly

Abstract:

In this paper, based on steady-state models of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices, the sizing of static synchronous series compensator (SSSC) controllers in transmission network is formed as an optimization problem. The objective of this problem is to reduce the transmission losses in the network. The optimization problem is solved using particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. The Newton-Raphson load flow algorithm is modified to consider the insertion of the SSSC devices in the network. A numerical example, illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, is introduced. In addition, a novel model of a 3- phase voltage source converter (VSC) that is suitable for series connected FACTS a controller is introduced. The model is verified by simulation using Power System Blockset (PSB) and Simulink software.

Keywords: FACTS, Modeling, PSO, SSSC, Transmission lossreduction.

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Authors: MK Lee, JS Hong, SM Sin, HU Oh

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Heat pipes are used to control the thermal problem for electronic cooling. It is especially difficult to dissipate heat to a heat sink in an environment in space compared to earth. For solving this problem, in this study, the Poiseuille (Po) number, which is the main measure of the performance of a heat pipe, is studied by CFD; then, the heat pipe performance is verified with experimental results. A heat pipe is then fabricated for a spatial environment, and an in-house code is developed. Further, a heat pipe subsystem, which consists of a heat pipe, MLI (Multi Layer Insulator), SSM (Second Surface Mirror), and radiator, is tested and correlated with the TMM (Thermal Mathematical Model) through a commercial code. The correlation results satisfy the 3K requirement, and the generated thermal model is verified for application to a spatial environment.

Keywords: CFD, Heat pipe, Radiator, Space.

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Authors: Amogh Katti, J. Sai Asritha, D. Nivedh, M. Kalyan Srinivas, B. Somnath Chakravarthi

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Today's modern education system uses Learning Management System (LMS) portals for the scoring and grading of student performances, to maintain student records, and teachers are instructed to accept assignments through online submissions of .pdf, .doc, .ppt, etc. There is a risk of data tampering in the traditional portals; we will apply the Blockchain model instead of this traditional model to avoid data tampering and also provide a decentralized mechanism for overall fairness. Blockchain technology is a better and also recommended model because of the following features: consensus mechanism, decentralized system, cryptographic encryption, smart contracts, Ethereum blockchain. The proposed system ensures data integrity and tamper-proof assignment submission and grading, which will be helpful for both students and also educators.

Keywords: Education technology, learning management system, decentralized applications, blockchain.

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Authors: R. C. J. Mphahlele, K. Bolton, H. Kasaini

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Empirical force fields and density functional theory (DFT) was used to study the binding energies and structures of methylamine on the surface of activated carbons (ACs). This is a first step in studying the adsorption of alkyl amines on the surface of functionalized ACs. The force fields used were Dreiding (DFF), Universal (UFF) and Compass (CFF) models. The generalized gradient approximation with Perdew Wang 91 (PW91) functional was used for DFT calculations. In addition to obtaining the aminecarboxylic acid adsorption energies, the results were used to establish reliability of the empirical models for these systems. CFF predicted a binding energy of -9.227 (kcal/mol) which agreed with PW91 at - 13.17 (kcal/mol), compared to DFF 0 (kcal/mol) and UFF -0.72 (kcal/mol). However, the CFF binding energies for the amine to ester and ketone disagreed with PW91 results. The structures obtained from all models agreed with PW91 results.

Keywords: Activated Carbons, Binding energy, DFT, Force fields.

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Authors: Jesús M. Martín, Francisco Corona, Dolores Hidalgo

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Landfills present long-term threats to soil, air, groundwater and surface water due to the formation of greenhouse gases (methane gas and carbon dioxide) and leachate from decomposing garbage. The composition of leachate differs from site to site and also within the landfill. The leachates alter with time (from weeks to years) since the landfilled waste is biologically highly active and their composition varies. Mainly, the composition of the leachate depends on factors such as characteristics of the waste, the moisture content, climatic conditions, degree of compaction and the age of the landfill. Therefore, the leachate composition cannot be generalized and the traditional treatment models should be adapted in each case. Although leachate composition is highly variable, what different leachates have in common is hazardous constituents and their potential eco-toxicological effects on human health and on terrestrial ecosystems. Since leachate has distinct compositions, each landfill or dumping site would represent a different type of risk on its environment. Nevertheless, leachates consist always of high organic concentration, conductivity, heavy metals and ammonia nitrogen. Leachate could affect the current and future quality of water bodies due to uncontrolled infiltrations. Therefore, control and treatment of leachate is one of the biggest issues in urban solid waste treatment plants and landfills design and management. This work presents a treatment model that will be carried out "in-situ" using a cost-effective novel technology that combines solar evaporation/condensation plus forward osmosis. The plant is powered by renewable energies (solar energy, biomass and residual heat), which will minimize the carbon footprint of the process. The final effluent quality is very high, allowing reuse (preferred) or discharge into watercourses. In the particular case of this work, the final effluents will be reused for cleaning and gardening purposes. A minority semi-solid residual stream is also generated in the process. Due to its special composition (rich in metals and inorganic elements), this stream will be valorized in ceramic industries to improve the final products characteristics.

Keywords: Forward osmosis, landfills, leachate valorization, solar evaporation.

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Authors: Krisada Sungkhamanee

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The objectives of this research are to search the management pattern of Bang Khonthi lodging entrepreneurs for sufficient economy ways, to know the threat that affects this sector and design fit arrangement model to sustain their business with Samut Songkram style. What will happen if they do not use this approach? Will they have a financial crisis? The data and information are collected by informal discussions with 8 managers and 400 questionnaires. A mixed methods of both qualitative research and quantitative research are used. Bent Flyvbjerg-s phronesis is utilized for this analysis. Our research will prove that sufficient economy can help small business firms to solve their problems. We think that the results of our research will be a financial model to solve many problems of the entrepreneurs and this way will can be a model for other provinces of Thailand.

Keywords: Bang Khonthi, Lodging Business, Sufficient Economy.

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Authors: Tomohiro Ando, Satoshi Yamashita

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The objective of this study is to propose a statistical modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default, incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Empirical Bayes, Hazard term structure, Loss given default.

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Authors: Oluyemi O. Awolusi, Abimbola M. Enitan, Sheena Kumari, Faizal Bux

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Nitrification is essential to biological processes designed to remove ammonia and/or total nitrogen. It removes excess nitrogenous compound in wastewater which could be very toxic to the aquatic fauna or cause serious imbalance of such aquatic ecosystem. Efficient nitrification is linked to an in-depth knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the nitrifying community structure within the wastewater treatment systems. In this study, molecular technique was employed for characterizing the microbial structure of activated sludge [ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and nitrite oxidizing bacteria (NOB)] in a municipal wastewater treatment with intention of linking it to the plant efficiency. PCR based phylogenetic analysis was also carried out. The average operating and environmental parameters as well as specific nitrification rate of plant was investigated during the study. During the investigation the average temperature was 23±1.5oC. Other operational parameters such as mixed liquor suspended solids and chemical oxygen demand inversely correlated with ammonia removal. The dissolved oxygen level in the plant was constantly lower than the optimum (between 0.24 and 1.267 mg/l) during this study. The plant was treating wastewater with influent ammonia concentration of 31.69 and 24.47 mg/L. The influent flow rates (ML/Day) was 96.81 during period. The dominant nitrifiers include: Nitrosomonas spp. Nitrobacter spp. and Nitrospira spp. The AOB had correlation with nitrification efficiency and temperature. This study shows that the specific ammonia oxidizing rate and the specific nitrate formation rates can serve as good indicator of the plant overall nitrification performance.

Keywords: Ammonia monooxygenase α-subunit (amoA) gene, ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB), nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB), specific nitrification rate, PCR.

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Authors: P. Mohajeri Khameneh, I. Mirzaie, N. Pourmahmoud, M. Rahimi, S. Majidyfar

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Three dimensional simulations in tube in tube heat exchangers are investigated numerically in this study. In these simulations forced convective heat transfer and laminar flow of single-phase water are considered. In order to measure heat transfer parameters in these heat exchangers, FLUENT CFD Solver is used in this numerical method. For the purpose of creating geometry and exert boundary and initial conditions in the present model, finite volume method in Computational Fluid Dynamics is used in this study. In the present study, at each Z-location, variation of local temperatures, heat flux and Nusselt number at the whole tube is investigated in detail. Thereafter, averaged computational Nusselt number in this model is calculated. In addition, conceivable pressure drops have been obtained at each Z-location in this model. Then, pressure drop values in the present model are explored. Finally, all the numerical results for this kind of heat exchanger will be discussed precisely.

Keywords: Heat exchanger, Laminar flow, CFD, Nusseltnumber, Tube in tube, pressure drop.

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Authors: W. Sutopo, M. Hisjam, Yuniaristanto

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In general, small-scale vegetables farmers experience problems in improving the safety and quality of vegetables supplied to high-class consumers in modern retailers. They also lack of information to access market. The farmers group and/or cooperative (FGC) should be able to assist its members by providing training in handling and packing vegetables and enhancing marketing capabilities to sell commodities to the modern retailers. This study proposes an agri-food supply chain (ASC) model that involves the corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities to cultivate the capabilities of farmers to access market. Multi period ASC model is formulated as Weighted Goal Programming (WGP) to analyze the impacts of CSR programs to empower the FGCs in managing the small-scale vegetables farmers. The results show that the proposed model can be used to determine the priority of programs in order to maximize the four goals to be achieved in the CSR programs.

Keywords: agri-food supply chain, corporate social responsibility, small-scale vegetables farmers, weighted goal programming.

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Authors: Barenten Suciu

Abstract:

In this work, by replacing the traditional solid spokes with colloidal spokes, a vehicle wheel with a built-in suspension structure is proposed. Following the background and description of the wheel system, firstly, a vibration model of the wheel equipped with colloidal spokes is proposed, and based on such model the equivalent damping coefficients and spring constants are identified. Then, a modified model of a quarter-vehicle moving on a rough pavement is proposed in order to estimate the transmissibility of vibration from the road roughness to vehicle body. In the end, the optimal design of the colloidal spokes and the optimum number of colloidal spokes are decided in order to minimize the transmissibility of vibration, i.e., to maximize the ride comfort of the vehicle.

Keywords: Built-in suspension, colloidal spoke, intrinsic spring, vibration analysis, wheel.

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Authors: Xiangbin Zhu

Abstract:

Advances in computing applications in recent years have prompted the demand for more flexible scheduling models for QoS demand. Moreover, in practical applications, partly violated temporal constraints can be tolerated if the violation meets certain distribution. So we need extend the traditional Liu and Lanland model to adapt to these circumstances. There are two extensions, which are the (m, k)-firm model and Window-Constrained model. This paper researches on weakly hard real-time constraints and their combination to support QoS. The fact that a practical application can tolerate some violations of temporal constraint under certain distribution is employed to support adaptive QoS on the open real-time system. The experiment results show these approaches are effective compared to traditional scheduling algorithms.

Keywords: Weakly Hard Real-Time, Real-Time, Scheduling, Quality of Service.

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Authors: Noor Ul Ain Bhatti, M. Junaid Khan, Javed Ahmad, Murtaza Saleem, Shahid M. Ramay, Saadat A. Siddiqi

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Manganese oxide is being recently used as electrode material for rechargeable batteries. In this study, Al incorporated Mn₂O₃ compositions were synthesized to study the effect of Al doping on electrochemical performance of host material. Structural studies were carried out using X-ray diffraction analysis to confirm the phase stability and explore the lattice parameters, crystallite size, lattice strain, density and cell volume. Morphology and composition were analyzed using field emission scanning electron microscope and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, respectively. Dynamic light scattering analysis was performed to observe the average particle size of the compositions. FTIR measurements exhibit the O-Al-O and O-Mn-O and Al-O bonding and with increasing the concentration of Al, the vibrational peaks of Mn-O become sharper. An enhanced electrochemical performance was observed in compositions with higher Al content.

Keywords: Mn2O3, electrode materials, energy storage and conversion, electrochemical performance.

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Authors: Roman Klas, František Pochylý, Pavel Rudolf

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This paper is focused on the CFD simulation of the radiaxial pump (i.e. mixed flow pump) with the aim to detect the reasons of Y-Q characteristic instability. The main reasons of pressure pulsations were detected by means of the analysis of velocity and pressure fields within the pump combined with the theoretical approach. Consequently, the modifications of spiral case and pump suction area were made based on the knowledge of flow conditions and the shape of dissipation function. The primary design of pump geometry was created as the base model serving for the comparison of individual modification influences. The basic experimental data are available for this geometry. This approach replaced the more complicated and with respect to convergence of all computational tasks more difficult calculation for the compressible liquid flow. The modification of primary pump consisted in inserting the three fins types. Subsequently, the evaluation of pressure pulsations, specific energy curves and visualization of velocity fields were chosen as the criterion for successful design. 

Keywords: CFD, radiaxial pump, spiral case, stability

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Authors: Bhed Bahadur Bista, Danda B. Rawat

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In this paper, we investigate multihop polling and data gathering schemes in layered sensor networks in order to extend the life time of the networks. A network consists of three layers. The lowest layer contains sensors. The middle layer contains so called super nodes with higher computational power, energy supply and longer transmission range than sensor nodes. The top layer contains a sink node. A node in each layer controls a number of nodes in lower layer by polling mechanism to gather data. We will present four types of data gathering schemes: intermediate nodes do not queue data packet, queue single packet, queue multiple packets and aggregate data, to see which data gathering scheme is more energy efficient for multihop polling in layered sensor networks.

Keywords: layered sensor network, polling, data gatheringschemes.

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Authors: Wiesław Szulczewski, Wojciech Jakubowski, Andrzej Żyromski, Małgorzata Biniak-Pieróg

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The aim of the paper was to elaborate a novel calculator BasWilCalc, that allows to estimate the actual amount of biomass on the basket willow plantations. The proposed method is based on the results of field experiment conducted during years  2011-2013 on basket willow plantation in the south-western part of Poland. As input data the results of destructive measurements of the diameter, length and weight of willow stems and non-destructive biometric measurements of diameter in the middle of stems and their length during the growing season performed at weekly intervals were used. Performed analysis enabled to develop the algorithm which, due to the fact that energy plantations are of known and constant planting structure, allows to estimate the actual amount of willow basket biomass on the plantation with a given probability and accuracy specified by the model, based on the number of stems measured and the age of the plantation.

Keywords: Basket willow (Salix viminalis) biomass, biometric measurements, yield, biomass calculator.

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Authors: Mircea Ivanescu, Nirvana Popescu, Decebal Popescu, Dorin Popescu

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This paper addresses the control problem of a class of hyper-redundant arms. In order to avoid discrepancy between the mathematical model and the actual dynamics, the dynamic model with uncertain parameters of this class of manipulators is inferred. A procedure to design a feedback controller which stabilizes the uncertain system has been proposed. A PD boundary control algorithm is used in order to control the desired position of the manipulator. This controller is easy to implement from the point of view of measuring techniques and actuation. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the presented methods. In order to verify the suitability of the control algorithm, a platform with a 3D flexible manipulator has been employed for testing. Experimental tests on this platform illustrate the applications of the techniques developed in the paper.

Keywords: Distributed model, flexible manipulator, observer, robot control.

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Authors: Alessio Plebe

Abstract:

One astonishing capability of humans is to recognize thousands of different objects visually, and to learn the semantic association between those objects and words referring to them. This work is an attempt to build a computational model of such capacity,simulating the process by which infants learn how to recognize objects and words through exposure to visual stimuli and vocal sounds.One of the main fact shaping the brain of a newborn is that lights and colors come from entities of the world. Gradually the visual system learn which light sensations belong to same entities, despite large changes in appearance. This experience is common between humans and several other mammals, like non-human primates. But humans only can recognize a huge variety of objects, most manufactured by himself, and make use of sounds to identify and categorize them. The aim of this model is to reproduce these processes in a biologically plausible way, by reconstructing the essential hierarchy of cortical circuits on the visual and auditory neural paths.

Keywords: Auditory cortex, object recognition, self-organizingmaps

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Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

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Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.

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Authors: Yasuo Obikane

Abstract:

The frequency dependence of the phase field model(PFM) is studied. A simple PFM is proposed, and is tested in a laminar boundary layer. The Blasius-s laminar boundary layer solution on a flat plate is used for the flow pattern, and several frequencies are imposed on the PFM, and the decay times of the interfaces are obtained. The computations were conducted for three cases: 1) no-flow, and 2) a half ball on the laminar boundary layer, 3) a line of mass sources in the laminar boundary layer. The computations show the decay time becomes shorter as the frequency goes larger, and also show that it is sensitive to both background disturbances and surface tension parameters. It is concluded that the proposed simple PFM can describe the properties of decay process, and could give the fundamentals for the decay of the interface in turbulent flows.

Keywords: Phase field model, two phase flows, Laminarboundary Layer

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Authors: Rafal Maciag

Abstract:

Due to the development of the current civilization, one must create suitable models of its pervasive massive phenomena. Such a phenomenon is the digital transformation, which has a substantial number of disciplined, methodical interpretations forming the diversified reflection. This reflection could be understood pragmatically as the current temporal, a local differential state of knowledge. The model of the discursive space is proposed as a model for the analysis and description of this knowledge. Discursive space is understood as an autonomous multidimensional space where separate discourses traverse specific trajectories of what can be presented in multidimensional parallel coordinate system. Discursive space built on the world of facts preserves the complex character of that world. Digital transformation as a discursive space has a relativistic character that means that at the same time, it is created by the dynamic discourses and these discourses are molded by the shape of this space.

Keywords: Knowledge, digital transformation, discourse, discursive space, complexity.

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Authors: M.Nafar, A.H.Gheisari, A.Alesaadi

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Since large power transformers are the most expensive and strategically important components of any power generator and transmission system, their reliability is crucially important for the energy system operation. Also, Circuit breakers are very important elements in the power transmission line so monitoring the events gives a knowledgebase to determine time to the next maintenance. This paper deals with the introduction of the comparative method of the state estimation of transformers and Circuit breakers using continuous monitoring of voltage, current. This paper gives details a new method based on wavelet to apparatus insulation monitoring. In this paper to insulation monitoring of transformer, a new method based on wavelet transformation and neutral point analysis is proposed. Using the EMTP tools, fault in transformer winding and the detailed transformer winding model were simulated. The current of neutral point of winding was analyzed by wavelet transformation. It is shown that the neutral current of the transformer winding has useful information about fault in insulation of the transformer.

Keywords: Wavelet, Power Transformer, EMTP, CircuitBreaker, Monitoring

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

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The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Yakin Hajlaoui, Richard Labib, Jean-Franc¸ois Plante, Michel Gamache

Abstract:

This study presents the Multi-Layer Inverse Distance Weighting Model (ML-IDW), inspired by the mathematical formulation of both multi-layer neural networks (ML-NNs) and Inverse Distance Weighting model (IDW). ML-IDW leverages ML-NNs’ processing capabilities, characterized by compositions of learnable non-linear functions applied to input features, and incorporates IDW’s ability to learn anisotropic spatial dependencies, presenting a promising solution for nonlinear spatial interpolation and learning from complex spatial data. We employ gradient descent and backpropagation to train ML-IDW. The performance of the proposed model is compared against conventional spatial interpolation models such as Kriging and standard IDW on regression and classification tasks using simulated spatial datasets of varying complexity. Our results highlight the efficacy of ML-IDW, particularly in handling complex spatial dataset, exhibiting lower mean square error in regression and higher F1 score in classification.

Keywords: Deep Learning, Multi-Layer Neural Networks, Gradient Descent, Spatial Interpolation, Inverse Distance Weighting.

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