Search results for: hidden failure
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 964

Search results for: hidden failure

754 Seismic Fragility for Sliding Failure of Weir Structure Considering the Process of Concrete Aging

Authors: HoYoung Son, Ki Young Kim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

This study investigated the change of weir structure performances when durability of concrete, which is the main material of weir structure, decreased due to their aging by mean of seismic fragility analysis. In the analysis, it was assumed that the elastic modulus of concrete was reduced by 10% in order to account for their aged deterioration. Additionally, the analysis of seismic fragility was based on Monte Carlo Simulation method combined with a 2D nonlinear finite element in ABAQUS platform with the consideration of deterioration of concrete. Finally, the comparison of seismic fragility of model pre- and post-deterioration was made to study the performance of weir. Results show that the probability of failure in moderate damage for deteriorated model was found to be larger than pre-deterioration model when peak ground acceleration (PGA) passed 0.4 g.

Keywords: Weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging.

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753 Unnoticeable Mumps Infection in India: Does MMR Vaccine Protect against Circulating Mumps Virus Genotype C?

Authors: Jeevan Malayan, Aparna Warrier, Padmasani Venkat Ramanan, Sanjeeva Reddy N, Elanchezhiyan Manickan

Abstract:

MMR vaccine failure had been reported globally and here we report that it occurs now in India. Samples were collected from clinically suspected mumps cases were subjected for anti mumps antibodies, virus isolation, RT-PCR, sequencing and phylogenetic tree analysis. 56 samples collected from men and women belonging to various age groups. 30 had been vaccinated and the status of 26 patients was unknown. 28 out of 30 samples were found to be symptomatic and positive for Mumps IgM, indicating active mumps infection in 93.4% of the vaccinated population. A phylogenetic tree comparison of the clinical isolate is shown to be genotype C which is distinct from vaccine strain. Our study clearly sending warning signs that MMR vaccine is a failure and it needs to be revamped for the human use by increasing its efficacy and efficiency.

Keywords: Genotype C, Mumps virus, MMR vaccine, Sero types.

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752 Modeling Erosion Control in Oil Production Wells

Authors: Kenneth I.Eshiet, Yong Sheng

Abstract:

The sand production problem has led researchers into making various attempts to understand the phenomenon. The generally accepted concept is that the occurrence of sanding is due to the in-situ stress conditions and the induced changes in stress that results in the failure of the reservoir sandstone during hydrocarbon production from wellbores. By using a hypothetical cased (perforated) well, an approach to the problem is presented here by using Finite Element numerical modelling techniques. In addition to the examination of the erosion problem, the influence of certain key parameters is studied in order to ascertain their effect on the failure and subsequent erosion process. The major variables investigated include: drawdown, perforation depth, and the erosion criterion. Also included is the determination of the optimal mud pressure for given operational and reservoir conditions. The improved understanding between parameters enables the choice of optimal values to minimize sanding during oil production.

Keywords: Equivalent Plastic Strain, Erosion, Hydrocarbon Production.

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751 Effect of Transverse Reinforcement on the Behavior of Tension Lap splice in High-Strength Reinforced Concrete Beams

Authors: Ahmed H. Abdel-Kareem, Hala. Abousafa, Omia S. El-Hadidi

Abstract:

The results of an experimental program conducted on seventeen simply supported concrete beams to study the effect of transverse reinforcement on the behavior of lap splice of steel reinforcement in tension zones in high strength concrete beams, are presented. The parameters included in the experimental program were the concrete compressive strength, the lap splice length, the amount of transverse reinforcement provided within the splice region, and the shape of transverse reinforcement around spliced bars. The experimental results showed that the displacement ductility increased and the mode of failure changed from splitting bond failure to flexural failure when the amount of transverse reinforcement in splice region increased, and the compressive strength increased up to 100 MPa. The presence of transverse reinforcement around spliced bars had pronounced effect on increasing the ultimate load, the ultimate deflection, and the displacement ductility. The prediction of maximum steel stresses for spliced bars using ACI 318-05 building code was compared with the experimental results. The comparison showed that the effect of transverse reinforcement around spliced bars has to be considered into the design equations for lap splice length in high strength concrete beams.

Keywords: Ductility, high strength concrete, tension lap splice, transverse reinforcement, steel stresses.

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750 Fatigue Tests of New Assembly Bolt Connections for Perspective Temporary Steel Railway Bridges

Authors: Marcela Karmazínová, Michal Štrba, Milan Pilgr

Abstract:

The paper deals with the problems of the actual behavior, failure mechanism and load-carrying capacity of the special bolt connection developed and intended for the assembly connections of truss main girders of perspective railway temporary steel bridges. Within the framework of this problem solution, several types of structural details of assembly joints have been considered as the conceptual structural design. Based on the preliminary evaluation of advantages or disadvantages of these ones, in principle two basic structural configurations – so-called “tooth” and “splice-plate” connections have been selected for the subsequent detailed investigation. This investigation is mainly based on the experimental verification of the actual behavior, strain and failure mechanism and corresponding strength of the connection, and on its numerical modeling using FEM. This paper is focused only on the cyclic loading (fatigue) tests results of “splice-plate” connections and their evaluation, which have already been finished. Simultaneously with the fatigue tests, the static loading tests have been realized too, but these ones, as well as FEM numerical modeling, are not the subject of this paper.

Keywords: Bolt assembly connection, Cyclic loading, Failure mechanisms, Fatigue strength, Steel structure, Structural detail category, Temporary railway bridge.

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749 Wind Fragility of Window Glass in 10-Story Apartment with Two Different Window Models

Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

Damage due to high wind is not limited to load resistance components such as beam and column. The majority of damage is due to breach in the building envelope such as broken roof, window, and door. In this paper, wind fragility of window glass in residential apartment was determined to compare the difference between two window configuration models. Monte Carlo Simulation method had been used to derive damage data and analytical fragilities were constructed. Fragility of window system showed that window located in leeward wall had higher probability of failure, especially those close to the edge of structure. Between the two window models, Model 2 had higher probability of failure, this was due to the number of panel in this configuration.

Keywords: Wind fragility, glass window, high rise apartment, Monte Carlo Simulation method.

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748 Feature Selection Approaches with Missing Values Handling for Data Mining - A Case Study of Heart Failure Dataset

Authors: N.Poolsawad, C.Kambhampati, J. G. F. Cleland

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigated the characteristic of a clinical dataseton the feature selection and classification measurements which deal with missing values problem.And also posed the appropriated techniques to achieve the aim of the activity; in this research aims to find features that have high effect to mortality and mortality time frame. We quantify the complexity of a clinical dataset. According to the complexity of the dataset, we proposed the data mining processto cope their complexity; missing values, high dimensionality, and the prediction problem by using the methods of missing value replacement, feature selection, and classification.The experimental results will extend to develop the prediction model for cardiology.

Keywords: feature selection, missing values, classification, clinical dataset, heart failure.

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747 Statistical Reliability Based Modeling of Series and Parallel Operating Systems using Extreme Value Theory

Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi, Mojtaba Mahdavi

Abstract:

This paper tries to represent a new method for computing the reliability of a system which is arranged in series or parallel model. In this method we estimate life distribution function of whole structure using the asymptotic Extreme Value (EV) distribution of Type I, or Gumbel theory. We use EV distribution in minimal mode, for estimate the life distribution function of series structure and maximal mode for parallel system. All parameters also are estimated by Moments method. Reliability function and failure (hazard) rate and p-th percentile point of each function are determined. Other important indexes such as Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Mean Time to repair (MTTR), for non-repairable and renewal systems in both of series and parallel structure will be computed.

Keywords: Reliability, extreme value, parallel, series, lifedistribution

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746 Performance Evaluation and Cost Analysis of Standby Systems

Authors: M. A. Hajeeh

Abstract:

Pumping systems are an integral part of water desalination plants, their effective functioning is vital for the operation of a plant. In this research work, the reliability and availability of pressurized pumps in a reverse osmosis desalination plant are studied with the objective of finding configurations that provides optimal performance. Six configurations of a series system with different number of warm and cold standby components were examined. Closed form expressions for the mean time to failure (MTTF) and the long run availability are derived and compared under the assumption that the time between failures and repair times of the primary and standby components are exponentially distributed. Moreover, a cost/ benefit analysis is conducted in order to identify a configuration with the best performance and least cost. It is concluded that configurations with cold standby components are preferable especially when the pumps are of the size.

Keywords: Availability, Cost/ benefit, Mean time to failure, Pumps.

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745 Using Data Clustering in Oral Medicine

Authors: Fahad Shahbaz Khan, Rao Muhammad Anwer, Olof Torgersson

Abstract:

The vast amount of information hidden in huge databases has created tremendous interests in the field of data mining. This paper examines the possibility of using data clustering techniques in oral medicine to identify functional relationships between different attributes and classification of similar patient examinations. Commonly used data clustering algorithms have been reviewed and as a result several interesting results have been gathered.

Keywords: Oral Medicine, Cluto, Data Clustering, Data Mining.

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744 Failure Analysis of Pipe System at a Hydroelectric Power Plant

Authors: Ali Göksenli, Barlas Eryürek

Abstract:

In this study, failure analysis of pipe system at a micro hydroelectric power plant is investigated. Failure occurred at the pipe system in the powerhouse during shut down operation of the water flow by a valve. This locking had caused a sudden shock wave, also called “Water-hammer effect”, resulting in noise and inside pressure increase. After visual investigation of the effect of the shock wave on the system, a circumference crack was observed at the pipe flange weld region. To establish the reason for crack formation, calculations of pressure and stress values at pipe, flange and welding seams were carried out and concluded that safety factor was high (2.2), indicating that no faulty design existed. By further analysis, pipe system and hydroelectric power plant was examined. After observations it is determined that the plant did not include a ventilation nozzle (air trap), that prevents the system of sudden pressure increase inside the pipes which is caused by water-hammer effect. Analyses were carried out to identify the influence of water-hammer effect on inside pressure increase and it was concluded that, according Jowkowsky’s equation, shut down time is effective on inside pressure increase. The valve closing time was uncertain but by a shut down time of even one minute, inside pressure would increase by 7.6 bar (working pressure was 34.6 bar). Detailed investigations were also carried out on the assembly of the pipe-flange system by considering technical drawings. It was concluded that the pipe-flange system was not installed according to the instructions. Two of five weld seams were not applied and one weld was carried out faulty. This incorrect and inadequate weld seams resulted in; insufficient connection of the pipe to the flange constituting a strong notch effect at weld seam regions, increase in stress values and the decrease of strength and safety factor.

Keywords: Failure analysis, hydroelectric plant, water-hammer, crack, welding seam.

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743 First Person View Camera Based Quadcopter with Raspberry Pi

Authors: C. R. Balamurugan, P. Vijayakumar, P. Kiruba, S. Arun Kanna, E. R. Hariprasath, C. Anu Priya

Abstract:

This paper studies in details about the need of quadcopter in various fields especially in the place of remote area where the road transportation facility is very less. It is used to monitor and collect data in a specific region. The movement of this quadcopter is controlled by the Raspberry Pi. FPV camera is used for capturing the image and will transmit the image to the receiver which can be monitored using an android smart phone. This is mainly used for surveillance purpose and hidden activities can be captured.

Keywords: FPV camera, A2212 brushless direct current motor, Raspberry Pi, lithium polymer battery.

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742 Fatigue Failure of Structural Steel – Analysis Using Fracture Mechanics

Authors: Shine U P, EMS Nair

Abstract:

Fatigue is the major threat in service of steel structure subjected to fluctuating loads. With the additional effect of corrosion and presence of weld joints the fatigue failure may become more critical in structural steel. One of the apt examples of such structural is the sailing ship. This is experiencing a constant stress due to floating and a pulsating bending load due to the waves. This paper describes an attempt to verify theory of fatigue in fracture mechanics approach with experimentation to determine the constants of crack growth curve. For this, specimen is prepared from the ship building steel and it is subjected to a pulsating bending load with a known defect. Fatigue crack and its nature is observed in this experiment. Application of fracture mechanics approach in fatigue with a simple practical experiment is conducted and constants of crack growth equation are investigated.

Keywords: fatigue, fracture mechanics, fatigue testing machine

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741 Impact of Rebar-Reinforcement on Flexural Response of Shear-Critical Ultrahigh-Performance Concrete Beams

Authors: Yassir M. Abbas, Mohammad Iqbal Khan, Galal Fares

Abstract:

In the present work, the structural responses of 12 ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) beams to four-point loading conditions were experimentally and analytically studied. The inclusion of a fibrous system in the UHPC material increased its compressive and flexural strengths by 31.5% and 237.8%, respectively. Based on the analysis of the load-deflection curves of UHPC beams, it was found that UHPC beams with a low reinforcement ratio are prone to sudden brittle failure. This failure behavior was changed, however, to a ductile one in beams with medium to high ratios. The implication is that improving UHPC beam tensile reinforcement could result in a higher level of safety. More reinforcement bars also enabled the load-deflection behavior to be improved, particularly after yielding.

Keywords: Ultra-high-performance concrete, moment capacity, RC beams, hybrid fiber, ductility.

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740 Role of Oxide Scale Thickness Measurements in Boiler Conditions Assessment

Authors: M. Alardhi, A. Almazrouee, S. Alsaleh

Abstract:

Oxide scale thickness measurements are used in assessing the life of different components operating at high temperature environment. Such measurements provide an approximation for the temperature inside components such as reheater and superheater tubes. A number of failures were encountered in one of the boilers in one of Kuwaiti power plants. These failure were mainly in the first row of the primary super heater tubes, therefore, the specialized engineer decide to replace them during the annual shutdown. As a tool for failure analysis, oxide scale thickness measurement were used to investigate the temperature distribution in these tubes. In this paper, the oxide scale thickness of these tubes were measured and used for analysis. The measurements provide an illustration of the distribution of heat transfer of the primary superheater tubes in the boiler system. Remarks and analysis about the design of the boiler are also provided.

Keywords: Super heater tubes, oxide scale measurements, overheating.

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739 Managing User Expectations in Information Systems Development

Authors: Linda, Sau-ling Lai

Abstract:

This paper provides new ways to explore the old problem of failure of information systems development in an organisation. Based on the theory of cognitive dissonance, information systems (IS) failure is defined as a gap between what the users expect from an information system and how well these expectations are met by the perceived performance of the delivered system. Bridging the expectation-perception gap requires that IS professionals make a radical change from being the proprietor of information systems and products to being service providers. In order to deliver systems and services that IS users perceive as valuable, IS people must become expert in determining and assessing users- expectations and perceptions. It is also suggested that the IS community, in general, has given relatively little attention to the front-end process of requirements specification for IS development. There is a simplistic belief that requirements are obtainable from users, they are then translatable into a formal specification. The process of information needs analysis is problematic and worthy of investigation.

Keywords: Information Systems Development, Cognitive Dissonance, Expectation-Perception Gap, Requirements Analysis.

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738 Diagonal Crack Width of RC Members with High Strength Materials

Authors: J. Y. Lee, H. S. Lim, S. H. Yoon

Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis of the diagonal crack widths of RC members with various types of materials by simulating a compatibility-aided truss model. The analytical results indicated that the diagonal crack width was influenced by not only the shear reinforcement ratio but also the yield strength of shear reinforcement and the compressive strength of concrete. The yield strength of shear reinforcement and the compressive strength of concrete decreased the diagonal shear crack width of RC members for the same shear force because of the change of shear failure modes. However, regarding the maximum shear crack width at shear failure, the shear crack width of the beam with high strength materials was greater than that of the beam with normal strength materials.

Keywords: Diagonal crack width, high strength stirrups, high strength concrete, RC members, shear behavior.

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737 Design Methodology through Risk Assessment of Massive Water Retaining Structures

Authors: A. Rouili

Abstract:

In the present paper the results of a numerical study are presented, numerical models were developed to simulate the behaviour of vertical massive dikes. The proposed models were developed according to the geometry, boundary conditions, loading conditions and initial conditions of a physical model taken as reference. The results obtained were compared to the experimental data. As far as the overall behaviour, the displacements and the failure mechanisms of the dikes is concerned, the numerical results were in good agreement with the experimental results, which clearly indicates a good quality of numerical modelling. The validated numerical models were used in a parametric study were the displacements and failure mechanisms were fully investigated. Out of the results obtained, some conclusions and recommendations related to the design of massive dikes are proposed.

Keywords: Water conservation, dikes, risk assessment and numerical modelling.

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736 Application of Life Data Analysis for the Reliability Assessment of Numerical Overcurrent Relays

Authors: Mohd Iqbal Ridwan, Kerk Lee Yen, Aminuddin Musa, Bahisham Yunus

Abstract:

Protective relays are components of a protection system in a power system domain that provides decision making element for correct protection and fault clearing operations. Failure of the protection devices may reduce the integrity and reliability of the power system protection that will impact the overall performance of the power system. Hence it is imperative for power utilities to assess the reliability of protective relays to assure it will perform its intended function without failure. This paper will discuss the application of reliability analysis using statistical method called Life Data Analysis in Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB), a government linked power utility company in Malaysia, namely Transmission Division, to assess and evaluate the reliability of numerical overcurrent protective relays from two different manufacturers.

Keywords: Life data analysis, Protective relays, Reliability, Weibull Distribution.

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735 Perforation Analysis of the Aluminum Alloy Sheets Subjected to High Rate of Loading and Heated Using Thermal Chamber: Experimental and Numerical Approach

Authors: A. Bendarma, T. Jankowiak, A. Rusinek, T. Lodygowski, M. Klósak, S. Bouslikhane

Abstract:

The analysis of the mechanical characteristics and dynamic behavior of aluminum alloy sheet due to perforation tests based on the experimental tests coupled with the numerical simulation is presented. The impact problems (penetration and perforation) of the metallic plates have been of interest for a long time. Experimental, analytical as well as numerical studies have been carried out to analyze in details the perforation process. Based on these approaches, the ballistic properties of the material have been studied. The initial and residual velocities laser sensor is used during experiments to obtain the ballistic curve and the ballistic limit. The energy balance is also reported together with the energy absorbed by the aluminum including the ballistic curve and ballistic limit. The high speed camera helps to estimate the failure time and to calculate the impact force. A wide range of initial impact velocities from 40 up to 180 m/s has been covered during the tests. The mass of the conical nose shaped projectile is 28 g, its diameter is 12 mm, and the thickness of the aluminum sheet is equal to 1.0 mm. The ABAQUS/Explicit finite element code has been used to simulate the perforation processes. The comparison of the ballistic curve was obtained numerically and was verified experimentally, and the failure patterns are presented using the optimal mesh densities which provide the stability of the results. A good agreement of the numerical and experimental results is observed.

Keywords: Aluminum alloy, ballistic behavior, failure criterion, numerical simulation.

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734 Ion Thruster Grid Lifetime Assessment Based on Its Structural Failure

Authors: Juan Li, Jiawen Qiu, Yuchuan Chu, Tianping Zhang, Wei Meng, Yanhui Jia, Xiaohui Liu

Abstract:

This article developed an ion thruster optic system sputter erosion depth numerical 3D model by IFE-PIC (Immersed Finite Element-Particle-in-Cell) and Mont Carlo method, and calculated the downstream surface sputter erosion rate of accelerator grid; compared with LIPS-200 life test data. The results of the numerical model are in reasonable agreement with the measured data. Finally, we predicted the lifetime of the 20cm diameter ion thruster via the erosion data obtained with the model. The ultimate result demonstrated that under normal operating condition, the erosion rate of the grooves wears on the downstream surface of the accelerator grid is 34.6μm⁄1000h, which means the conservative lifetime until structural failure occurring on the accelerator grid is 11500 hours.

Keywords: Ion thruster, accelerator gird, sputter erosion, lifetime assessment.

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733 Stress Analysis of Non-persistent Rock Joints under Biaxial Loading

Authors: Omer S. Mughieda

Abstract:

Two-dimensional finite element model was created in this work to investigate the stresses distribution within rock-like samples with offset open non-persistent joints under biaxial loading. The results of this study have explained the fracture mechanisms observed in tests on rock-like material with open non-persistent offset joints [1]. Finite element code SAP2000 was used to study the stresses distribution within the specimens. Four-nodded isoperimetric plain strain element with two degree of freedom per node, and the three-nodded constant strain triangular element with two degree of freedom per node were used in the present study.The results of the present study explained the formation of wing cracks at the tip of the joints for low confining stress as well as the formation of wing cracks at the middle of the joint for the higher confining stress. High shear stresses found in the numerical study at the tip of the joints explained the formation of secondary cracks at the tip of the joints in the experimental study. The study results coincide with the experimental observations which showed that for bridge inclination of 0o, the coalescence occurred due to shear failure and for bridge inclination of 90o the coalescence occurred due to tensile failure while for the other bridge inclinations coalescence occurred due to mixed tensile and shear failure.

Keywords: Finite element, open offset rock joint, SAP2000, biaxial loading.

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732 Driver Readiness in Autonomous Vehicle Take-Overs

Authors: Abdurrahman Arslanyilmaz, Salman Al Matouq, Durmus V. Doner

Abstract:

Level 3 autonomous vehicles are able to take full responsibility over the control of the vehicle unless a system boundary is reached or a system failure occurs, in which case, the driver is expected to take-over the control of the vehicle. While this happens, the driver is often not aware of the traffic situation or is engaged in a secondary task. Factors affecting the duration and quality of take-overs in these situations have included secondary task type and nature, traffic density, take-over request (TOR) time, and TOR warning type and modality. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no prior study examined time buffer for TORs when a system failure occurs immediately before intersections. The first objective of this study is to investigate the effect of time buffer (3 and 7 seconds) on the duration and quality of take-overs when a system failure occurs just prior to intersections. In addition, eye-tracking has become one of the most popular methods to report what individuals view, in what order, for how long, and how often, and it has been utilized in driving simulations with various objectives. However, to the extent of authors’ knowledge, none has compared drivers’ eye gaze behavior in the two different time buffers in order to examine drivers’ attention and comprehension of salient information. The second objective is to understand the driver’s attentional focus on comprehension of salient traffic-related information presented on different parts of the dashboard and on the roads.

Keywords: Autonomous vehicles, driving simulation, eye gaze, attention, comprehension, take-over duration, take-over quality, time buffer.

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731 Fatigue Life Prediction on Steel Beam Bridges under Variable Amplitude Loading

Authors: M. F. V. Montezuma, E. P. Deus, M. C. Carvalho

Abstract:

Steel bridges are normally subjected to random loads with different traffic frequencies. They are structures with dynamic behavior and are subject to fatigue failure process, where the nucleation of a crack, growth and failure can occur. After locating and determining the size of an existing fault, it is important to predict the crack propagation and the convenient time for repair. Therefore, fracture mechanics and fatigue concepts are essential to the right approach to the problem. To study the fatigue crack growth, a computational code was developed by using the root mean square (RMS) and the cycle-by-cycle models. One observes the variable amplitude loading influence on the life structural prediction. Different loads histories and initial crack length were considered as input variables. Thus, it was evaluated the dispersion of results of the expected structural life choosing different initial parameters.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation, life prediction, variable loadings, steel bridges.

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730 A Study on Evaluation of Strut Type Suspension Noise Caused by Rubber Degradation

Authors: Gugyong Kim, Sugnsu Kang, Yongjun Lee, Sooncheol Park, Wonwook Jung

Abstract:

When cars are released from the factory, strut noises are very small and therefore it is difficult to perceive them. As the use time and travel distance increase, however, strut noises get larger so as to cause users much uneasiness. The noises generated at the field include engine noises and flow noises and therefore it is difficult to clearly discern the noises generated from struts. This study developed a test method which can reproduce field strut noises in the lab. Using the newly developed noise evaluation test, this study analyzed the effects that insulator performance degradation and failure can have on car noises. The study also confirmed that the insulator durability test by the simple back-and-forth motion cannot completely reflect the state of the parts failure in the field. Based on this, the study also confirmed that field noises can be reproduced through a durability test that considers heat aging.

Keywords: Insulator, noise, performance degradation, strut

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729 Failure Analysis of a Fractured Control Pressure Tube from an Aircraft Engine

Authors: M. P. Valles-González, A. González Meije, A. Pastor Muro, M. García-Martínez, B. González Caballero

Abstract:

This paper studies a failure case of a fuel pressure supply tube from an aircraft engine. Multiple fracture cases of the fuel pressure control tube from aircraft engines have been reported. The studied set was composed by the mentioned tube, a welded connecting pipe, where the fracture has been produced, and a union nut. The fracture has been produced in one of the most critical zones of the tube, in a region next to the supporting body of the union nut to the connector. The tube material was X6CrNiTi18-10, an austenitic stainless steel. Chemical composition was determined using an X-Ray fluorescence spectrometer (XRF) and combustion equipment. Furthermore, the material was characterized mechanically, by a hardness test, and microstructurally using a stereo microscope and an optical microscope. The results confirmed that the material was within specifications. To determine the macrofractographic features, a visual examination and an observation using a stereo microscope of the tube fracture surface were carried out. The results revealed a tube plastic macrodeformation, surface damaged and signs of a possible corrosion process. Fracture surface was also inspected by scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), equipped with an energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis system (EDX), to determine the microfractographic features in order to find out the failure mechanism involved in the fracture. Fatigue striations, which are typical from a progressive fracture by a fatigue mechanism, were observed. The origin of the fracture was placed in defects located on the outer wall of the tube, leading to a final overload fracture.

Keywords: Aircraft Engine, microstructure, fatigue, FE-SEM, fractography, fracture, fuel tube, stainless steel.

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728 A Statistical Prediction of Likely Distress in Nigeria Banking Sector Using a Neural Network Approach

Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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727 Risk Management Analysis: An Empirical Study Using Bivariate GARCH

Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

Abstract:

This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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726 Neural Networks: From Black Box towards Transparent Box Application to Evapotranspiration Modeling

Authors: A. Johannet, B. Vayssade, D. Bertin

Abstract:

Neural networks are well known for their ability to model non linear functions, but as statistical methods usually does, they use a no parametric approach thus, a priori knowledge is not obvious to be taken into account no more than the a posteriori knowledge. In order to deal with these problematics, an original way to encode the knowledge inside the architecture is proposed. This method is applied to the problem of the evapotranspiration inside karstic aquifer which is a problem of huge utility in order to deal with water resource.

Keywords: Neural-Networks, Hydrology, Evapotranpiration, Hidden Function Modeling.

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725 What Have Banks Done Wrong?

Authors: F. May Liou, Y. C. Edwin Tang

Abstract:

This paper aims to provide a conceptual framework to examine competitive disadvantage of banks that suffer from poor performance. Banks generate revenues mainly from the interest rate spread on taking deposits and making loans while collecting fees in the process. To maximize firm value, banks seek loan growth and expense control while managing risk associated with loans with respect to non-performing borrowers or narrowing interest spread between assets and liabilities. Competitive disadvantage refers to the failure to access imitable resources and to build managing capabilities to gain sustainable return given appropriate risk management. This paper proposes a four-quadrant framework of organizational typology is subsequently proposed to examine the features of competitive disadvantage in the banking sector. A resource configuration model, which is extracted from CAMEL indicators to examine the underlying features of bank failures.

Keywords: Bank failure, CAMEL, competitive disadvantage, resource configuration.

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