Search results for: Agent based model

Authors: Insaf Ajili, Malik Mallem, Jean-Yves Didier

Abstract:

Human motion recognition has been extensively increased in recent years due to its importance in a wide range of applications, such as human-computer interaction, intelligent surveillance, augmented reality, content-based video compression and retrieval, etc. However, it is still regarded as a challenging task especially in realistic scenarios. It can be seen as a general machine learning problem which requires an effective human motion representation and an efficient learning method. In this work, we introduce a descriptor based on Laban Movement Analysis technique, a formal and universal language for human movement, to capture both quantitative and qualitative aspects of movement. We use Discrete Hidden Markov Model (DHMM) for training and classification motions. We improve the classification algorithm by proposing two DHMMs for each motion class to process the motion sequence in two different directions, forward and backward. Such modification allows avoiding the misclassification that can happen when recognizing similar motions. Two experiments are conducted. In the first one, we evaluate our method on a public dataset, the Microsoft Research Cambridge-12 Kinect gesture data set (MSRC-12) which is a widely used dataset for evaluating action/gesture recognition methods. In the second experiment, we build a dataset composed of 10 gestures(Introduce yourself, waving, Dance, move, turn left, turn right, stop, sit down, increase velocity, decrease velocity) performed by 20 persons. The evaluation of the system includes testing the efficiency of our descriptor vector based on LMA with basic DHMM method and comparing the recognition results of the modified DHMM with the original one. Experiment results demonstrate that our method outperforms most of existing methods that used the MSRC-12 dataset, and a near perfect classification rate in our dataset.

Keywords: Human Motion Recognition, Motion representation, Laban Movement Analysis, Discrete Hidden Markov Model.

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Authors: Mohsen Hayati, Zahra Mohebi

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short-term temperature forecasting (STTF) Systems for Kermanshah city, west of Iran was explored. One important architecture of neural networks named Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to model STTF systems is used. Our study based on MLP was trained and tested using ten years (1996-2006) meteorological data. The results show that MLP network has the minimum forecasting error and can be considered as a good method to model the STTF systems.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Forecasting, Weather, Multi-layer perceptron.

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Authors: A. P. Joshi, H. V. Warrior, J. P. Panda

Abstract:

This paper is a continuation of the work carried out by various turbulence modelers in Oceanography on the topic of oceanic turbulent mixing. It evaluates the evolution of ocean water temperature and salinity by the appropriate modeling of turbulent mixing utilizing proper prescription of eddy viscosity. Many modelers in past have suggested including terms like shear, buoyancy and vorticity to be the parameters that decide the slow pressure strain correlation. We add to it the fact that dissipation anisotropy also modifies the correlation through eddy viscosity parameterization. This recalibrates the established correlation constants slightly and gives improved results. This anisotropization of dissipation implies that the critical Richardson’s number increases much beyond unity (to 1.66) to accommodate enhanced mixing, as is seen in reality. The model is run for a couple of test cases in the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and the results are presented here.

Keywords: Anisotropy, GOTM, pressure-strain correlation, Richardson Critical number.

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Authors: David W.S. Tai, Ren-Cheng Zhang, Sheng-Hung Chang, Chin-Pin Chen, Jia-Ling Chen

Abstract:

This study reports results of a meta-analytic path analysis e-learning Acceptance Model with k = 27 studies, Databases searched included Information Sciences Institute (ISI) website. Variables recorded included perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude toward behavior, and behavioral intention to use e-learning. A correlation matrix of these variables was derived from meta-analytic data and then analyzed by using structural path analysis to test the fitness of the e-learning acceptance model to the observed aggregated data. Results showed the revised hypothesized model to be a reasonable, good fit to aggregated data. Furthermore, discussions and implications are given in this article.

Keywords: E-learning, Meta Analytic Path Analysis, Technology Acceptance Model

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Authors: K. Shoylekova, K. Grigorova

Abstract:

The Petri nets are the first standard for business process modeling. Most probably, it is one of the core reasons why all new standards created afterwards have to be so reformed as to reach the stage of mapping the new standard onto Petri nets. The paper presents a business process repository based on a universal database. The repository provides the possibility the data about a given process to be stored in three different ways. Business process repository is developed with regard to the reformation of a given model to a Petri net in order to be easily simulated. Two different techniques for business process simulation based on Petri nets - Yasper and Woflan are discussed. Their advantages and drawbacks are outlined. The way of simulating business process models, stored in the Business process repository is shown.

Keywords: Business process repository, Petri nets, Simulation, Woflan, Yasper.

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Authors: Pierre-Louis Cayrel, Sidi Mohamed El Yousfi Alaoui

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a dual version of the first threshold ring signature scheme based on error-correcting code proposed by Aguilar et. al in [1]. Our scheme uses an improvement of Véron zero-knowledge identification scheme, which provide smaller public and private key sizes and better computation complexity than the Stern one. This scheme is secure in the random oracle model.

Keywords: Stern algorithm, Véron algorithm, threshold ring signature, post-quantum cryptography.

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Authors: Yehjune Heo

Abstract:

As biometric systems become widely deployed, the security of identification systems can be easily attacked by various spoof materials. This paper contributes to finding a reliable and practical anti-spoofing method using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) based on the types of loss functions and optimizers. The types of CNNs used in this paper include AlexNet, VGGNet, and ResNet. By using various loss functions including Cross-Entropy, Center Loss, Cosine Proximity, and Hinge Loss, and various loss optimizers which include Adam, SGD, RMSProp, Adadelta, Adagrad, and Nadam, we obtained significant performance changes. We realize that choosing the correct loss function for each model is crucial since different loss functions lead to different errors on the same evaluation. By using a subset of the Livdet 2017 database, we validate our approach to compare the generalization power. It is important to note that we use a subset of LiveDet and the database is the same across all training and testing for each model. This way, we can compare the performance, in terms of generalization, for the unseen data across all different models. The best CNN (AlexNet) with the appropriate loss function and optimizers result in more than 3% of performance gain over the other CNN models with the default loss function and optimizer. In addition to the highest generalization performance, this paper also contains the models with high accuracy associated with parameters and mean average error rates to find the model that consumes the least memory and computation time for training and testing. Although AlexNet has less complexity over other CNN models, it is proven to be very efficient. For practical anti-spoofing systems, the deployed version should use a small amount of memory and should run very fast with high anti-spoofing performance. For our deployed version on smartphones, additional processing steps, such as quantization and pruning algorithms, have been applied in our final model.

Keywords: Anti-spoofing, CNN, fingerprint recognition, loss function, optimizer.

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Authors: David Lávicka

Abstract:

This paper looks into detailed investigation of thermal-hydraulic characteristics of the flow field in a fuel rod model, especially near the spacer. The area investigate represents a source of information on the velocity flow field, vortex, and on the amount of heat transfer into the coolant all of which are critical for the design and improvement of the fuel rod in nuclear power plants. The flow field investigation uses three-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with the Reynolds stresses turbulence model (RSM). The fuel rod model incorporates a vertical annular channel where three different shapes of spacers are used; each spacer shape is addressed individually. These spacers are mutually compared in consideration of heat transfer capabilities between the coolant and the fuel rod model. The results are complemented with the calculated heat transfer coefficient in the location of the spacer and along the stainless-steel pipe.

Keywords: CFD, fuel rod model, heat transfer, spacer

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Authors: Omer Ishag Eldai, Ahmed Hassan M. H. Ali, S. Raviraja

Abstract:

Web-based systems have become increasingly important due to the fact that the Internet and the World Wide Web have become ubiquitous, surpassing all other technological developments in our history. The Internet and especially companies websites has rapidly evolved in their scope and extent of use, from being a little more than fixed advertising material, i.e. a "web presences", which had no particular influence for the company's business, to being one of the most essential parts of the company's core business. Traditional software engineering approaches with process models such as, for example, CMM and Waterfall models, do not work very well since web system development differs from traditional development. The development differs in several ways, for example, there is a large gap between traditional software engineering designs and concepts and the low-level implementation model, many of the web based system development activities are business oriented (for example web application are sales-oriented, web application and intranets are content-oriented) and not engineering-oriented. This paper aims to introduce Increment Iterative extreme Programming (IIXP) methodology for developing web based systems. In difference to the other existence methodologies, this methodology is combination of different traditional and modern software engineering and web engineering principles.

Keywords: Web based systems, Web engineering.

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction.

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

Abstract:

In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: Causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software.

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Authors: Carolin Lutz, Jörg Matthes, Patrick Waibel, Ulrich Precht, Krassimir Garbev, Günter Beuchle, Uwe Schweike, Peter Stemmermann, Hubert B. Keller

Abstract:

Online measurement of the product quality is a challenging task in cement production, especially in the production of Celitement, a novel environmentally friendly hydraulic binder. The mineralogy and chemical composition of clinker in ordinary Portland cement production is measured by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF), where only crystalline constituents can be detected. But only a small part of the Celitement components can be measured via XRD, because most constituents have an amorphous structure. This paper describes the development of algorithms suitable for an on-line monitoring of the final processing step of Celitement based on NIR-data. For calibration intermediate products were dried at different temperatures and ground for variable durations. The products were analyzed using XRD and thermogravimetric analyses together with NIR-spectroscopy to investigate the dependency between the drying and the milling processes on one and the NIR-signal on the other side. As a result, different characteristic parameters have been defined. A short overview of the Celitement process and the challenging tasks of the online measurement and evaluation of the product quality will be presented. Subsequently, methods for systematic development of near-infrared calibration models and the determination of the final calibration model will be introduced. The application of the model on experimental data illustrates that NIR-spectroscopy allows for a quick and sufficiently exact determination of crucial process parameters.

Keywords: Calibration model, celitement, cementitious material, NIR spectroscopy.

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Authors: N. Hamzah, M.A. Khoiry, I. Arshad, W.H.W. Badaruzzaman, N. M. Tawil

Abstract:

Construction delay is unavoidable in developing countries including Malaysia. It is defined as time overrun or extension of time for completion of a project. The purpose of the study is to determine the causes of delay in Malaysian construction industries based on previous worldwide research. The field survey conducted includes the experienced developers, consultants and contractors in Malaysia. 34 causes of the construction delay have been determined and 24 have been selected using the Rasch model analysis. The analysis result will be used as the baseline for the next research to find the causes of delay in the Malaysian construction industry taking place in Malaysian higher learning institutions.

Keywords: Causes of construction delay, construction projects, Malaysian construction industry, Rasch model analysis.

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Authors: Anirudha Narain, Dinesh Chandra, Ravindra K. S.

Abstract:

A computationally simple approach of model order reduction for single input single output (SISO) and linear timeinvariant discrete systems modeled in frequency domain is proposed in this paper. Denominator of the reduced order model is determined using fuzzy C-means clustering while the numerator parameters are found by matching time moments and Markov parameters of high order system.

Keywords: Model Order reduction, Discrete-time system, Fuzzy C-Means Clustering, Padé approximation.

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Authors: Y. J. Huang, T. C. Kuo, B. W. Hong, B. C. Wu

Abstract:

This paper presents a robust proportionalderivative (PD) based cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC) for vertical take-off and landing flight control systems. Successful on-line training and recalling process of CMAC accompanying the PD controller is developed. The advantage of the proposed method is mainly the robust tracking performance against aerodynamic parametric variation and external wind gust. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is validated through the application of a vertical takeoff and landing aircraft control system.

Keywords: vertical takeoff and landing, cerebellar modelarticulation controller, proportional-derivative control.

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Authors: Mannal Tariq

Abstract:

Construction industry is making progress at a high pace. The trend of the world is getting more biased towards the high rise buildings. Deep beams are one of the most common elements in modern construction having small span to depth ratio. Deep beams are mostly used as transfer girders. This experimental study consists of 16 reinforced concrete (RC) deep beams. These beams were divided into two groups; A and B. Groups A and B consist of eight beams each, having 381 mm (15 in) and 457 mm (18 in) depth respectively. Each group was further subdivided into four sub groups each consisting of two identical beams. Each subgroup was comprised of solid/control beam (without opening), opening above neutral axis (NA), at NA and below NA. Except for control beams, all beams with openings were strengthened with carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) vertical strips. These eight groups differ from each other based on depth and location of openings. For testing sake, all beams have been loaded with two symmetrical point loads. All beams have been designed based on strut and tie model concept. The outcome of experimental investigation elaborates the difference in the shear behaviour of deep beams based on depth and location of circular openings variation. 457 mm (18 in) deep beam with openings above NA show the highest strength and 381 mm (15 in) deep beam with openings below NA show the least strength. CFRP sheets played a vital role in increasing the shear capacity of beams.

Keywords: CFRP, deep beams, openings in deep beams, strut and tie model, shear behaviour.

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Authors: M. Geetha Priya, D. Krishnaveni

Abstract:

Snow depth estimation and monitoring studies have been carried out for decades using empirical relationship or extrapolation of point measurements carried out in field. With the development of advanced satellite based remote sensing techniques, a modified approach is proposed in the present study to estimate the winter accumulated snow depth at basin scale. Assessment of snow depth by differencing Digital Elevation Model (DEM) generated at the beginning and end of winter season can be experimented for the region of interest (Himalayan and polar regions) accounting for winter accumulation (solid precipitation). The proposed approach is based on existing geodetic method that is being used for glacier mass balance estimation. Considering the satellite datasets purely acquired during beginning and end of winter season, it is possible to estimate the change in depth or thickness for the snow that is accumulated during the winter as it takes one year for the snow to get transformed into firn (snow that has survived one summer or one-year old snow).

Keywords: Digital elevation model, snow depth, geodetic method, snow cover.

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Authors: E. Yosry, W. Fikry, A. El-henawy, M. Marzouk

Abstract:

This work offers a study of new simple compact model of dual-drain Magnetic Field Effect Transistor (MAGFET) including geometrical effects and biasing dependency. An explanation of the sensitivity is investigated, involving carrier deflection as the dominant operating principle. Finally, model verification with simulation results is introduced to ensure that acceptable error of 2% is achieved.

Keywords: MAGFET, Modeling, Simulation, Split-drain.

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Authors: Ahmed H. Amer, A. Amar, Sh. Hamada, I. I. Bondouk

Abstract:

Elastic scattering of Protons and deuterons from ¹¹B nuclei at different p, d energies have been analyzed within the framework of optical model code (ECIS88). The elastic scattering of ³He+¹¹B nuclear system at different ³He energies have been analyzed using double folding model code (FRESCO). The real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Volumetric integrals of the real and imaginary potential depths (J_R, J_W) have been calculated for ³He+¹¹B system. The agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical calculations in the whole angular range is fairly good. Normalization factor N_r is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 1.236.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model parameters, double folding model, nuclear density distribution.

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Authors: Mutuku Muvengei, John Kihiu

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the development of bond graph dynamic model of the mechanical dynamics of an excavating mechanism previously designed to be used with small tractors, which are fabricated in the Engineering Workshops of Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology. To develop a mechanical dynamics model of the manipulator, forward recursive equations similar to those applied in iterative Newton-Euler method were used to obtain kinematic relationships between the time rates of joint variables and the generalized cartesian velocities for the centroids of the links. Representing the obtained kinematic relationships in bondgraphic form, while considering the link weights and momenta as the elements led to a detailed bond graph model of the manipulator. The bond graph method was found to reduce significantly the number of recursive computations performed on a 3 DOF manipulator for a mechanical dynamic model to result, hence indicating that bond graph method is more computationally efficient than the Newton-Euler method in developing dynamic models of 3 DOF planar manipulators. The model was verified by comparing the joint torque expressions of a two link planar manipulator to those obtained using Newton- Euler and Lagrangian methods as analyzed in robotic textbooks. The expressions were found to agree indicating that the model captures the aspects of rigid body dynamics of the manipulator. Based on the model developed, actuator sizing and valve sizing methodologies were developed and used to obtain the optimal sizes of the pistons and spool valve ports respectively. It was found that using the pump with the sized flow rate capacity, the engine of the tractor is able to power the excavating mechanism in digging a sandy-loom soil.

Keywords: Actuators, bond graphs, inverse dynamics, recursive equations, quintic polynomial trajectory.

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Authors: Abdullahi Mohamud Sharif, Mohd. Zaidi Abd. Rozan

Abstract:

Risk Assessment Tool (RAT) is an expert system that assesses, monitors, and gives preliminary treatments automatically based on the project plan. In this paper, a review was taken out for the current project time management risk assessment tools for SME software development projects, analyze risk assessment parameters, conditions, scenarios, and finally propose risk assessment tool (RAT) model to assess, treat, and monitor risks. An implementation prototype system is developed to validate the model.

Keywords: Project Time Management, Risk Assessment Tool(RAT), Small and Medium Enterprises (SME).

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a nonlinear delay population model is investigated. Choosing the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we demonstrate that Hopf bifurcation will occur when the delay exceeds a critical value. Global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established. Numerical simulations supporting the theoretical findings are included.

Keywords: Population model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Global Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: Amalia Suzianti

Abstract:

This research elaborates decision models for product innovation in the early phases, focusing on one of the most widely implemented method in marketing research: conjoint analysis and the related conjoint-based models with special focus on heuristics programming techniques for the development of optimal product innovation. The concept, potential, requirements and limitations of conjoint analysis and its conjoint-based heuristics successors are analysed and the development of conceptual framework of Genetic Algorithm (GA) as one of the most widely implemented heuristic methods for developing product innovations are discussed.

Keywords: Product Innovation, Conjoint Analysis, Heuristic Model, Genetic Algorithm

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Authors: A. Ambia, T. Takemae, Y. Kosugi, M. Hongo

Abstract:

Electric impedance imaging is a method of reconstructing spatial distribution of electrical conductivity inside a subject. In this paper, a new method of electrical impedance imaging using eddy current is proposed. The eddy current distribution in the body depends on the conductivity distribution and the magnetic field pattern. By changing the position of magnetic core, a set of voltage differences is measured with a pair of electrodes. This set of voltage differences is used in image reconstruction of conductivity distribution. The least square error minimization method is used as a reconstruction algorithm. The back projection algorithm is used to get two dimensional images. Based on this principle, a measurement system is developed and some model experiments were performed with a saline filled phantom. The shape of each model in the reconstructed image is similar to the corresponding model, respectively. From the results of these experiments, it is confirmed that the proposed method is applicable in the realization of electrical imaging.

Keywords: Back projection algorithm, electrical impedancetomography, eddy current, magnetic inductance tomography.

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a comparative assessment of Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for two-level three phase (2L-3P) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). VSI with associated system is subjected to both control techniques and the results are compared. Matlab/Simulink was used to model, simulate and validate the control schemes. Findings of this study show that MPC is superior to SVPWM in terms of total harmonic distortion (THD) and implementation.

Keywords: Model Predictive Control, Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation, Voltage Source Inverter.

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Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

Abstract:

Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: Coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient.

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Authors: Aref Ghafouri, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

Abstract:

In this paper, model order reduction method is used for approximation in linear and nonlinearity aspects in some experimental data. This method can be used for obtaining offline reduced model for approximation of experimental data and can produce and follow the data and order of system and also it can match to experimental data in some frequency ratios. In this study, the method is compared in different experimental data and influence of choosing of order of the model reduction for obtaining the best and sufficient matching condition for following the data is investigated in format of imaginary and reality part of the frequency response curve and finally the effect and important parameter of number of order reduction in nonlinear experimental data is explained further.

Keywords: Frequency response, Order of model reduction, frequency matching condition.

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Authors: B. X. Tchomeni, A. A. Alugongo, L. M. Masu

Abstract:

This paper presents a 4-DOF nonlinear model of a cracked de Laval rotor-stator system derived based on Energy Principles. The model has been used to simulate coupled torsionallateral response of the faulty system with multiple parametric excitations; rotor-stator-rub, a breathing transverse crack, eccentric mass and an axial force. Nonlinearity of a “breathing” crack is incorporated in the model using a simple hinge mechanism suitable for a shallow crack. Response of the system while passing via its critical speed with intermittent rotor-stator rub is analyzed. Effects of eccentricity with phase and acceleration are investigated. Features of crack, rub and eccentricity in vibration response are explored for condition monitoring. The presence of a crack and rub are observable in the power spectrum despite excitations by an axial force and rotor unbalance. Obtained results are consistent with existing literature and could be adopted into rotor condition monitoring strategies.

Keywords: Axial force, Crack, Nonlinear, Rotor-Stator, Rub.

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Authors: Gülfem I. Alptekin, S. Emre Alptekin

Abstract:

The next generation wireless systems, especially the cognitive radio networks aim at utilizing network resources more efficiently. They share a wide range of available spectrum in an opportunistic manner. In this paper, we propose a quality management model for short-term sub-lease of unutilized spectrum bands to different service providers. We built our model on competitive secondary market architecture. To establish the necessary conditions for convergent behavior, we utilize techniques from game theory. Our proposed model is based on potential game approach that is suitable for systems with dynamic decision making. The Nash equilibrium point tells the spectrum holders the ideal price values where profit is maximized at the highest level of customer satisfaction. Our numerical results show that the price decisions of the network providers depend on the price and QoS of their own bands as well as the prices and QoS levels of their opponents- bands.

Keywords: cognitive radio networks, game theory, nextgeneration wireless networks, spectrum management.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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