Search results for: cointegration test

Authors: Ha Thi Nguyen, Guangya Yang, Arne Hejde Nielsen, Peter Højgaard Jensen

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Automatic voltage regulator (AVR) plays an important role in volt/var control of synchronous condenser (SC) in power systems. Test AVR performance in steady-state and dynamic conditions in real grid is expensive, low efficiency, and hard to achieve. To address this issue, we implement hardware-in-the-loop (HiL) test for the AVR of SC to test the steady-state and dynamic performances of AVR in different operating conditions. Startup procedure of the system and voltage set point changes are studied to evaluate the AVR hardware response. Overexcitation, underexcitation, and AVR set point loss are tested to compare the performance of SC with the AVR hardware and that of simulation. The comparative results demonstrate how AVR will work in a real system. The results show HiL test is an effective approach for testing devices before deployment and is able to parameterize the controller with lower cost, higher efficiency, and more flexibility.

Keywords: Automatic voltage regulator, hardware-in-the-loop, synchronous condenser, real time digital simulator.

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi, Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

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Qingdao is a seaside city. Taking into account the characteristics of Qingdao, this article established a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on housing prices. We used stepwise regression method to make multiple linear regression analysis, and made statistical analysis of F test values and T test values. According to the analysis results, the model is continuously optimized. Finally, this article obtained the multiple linear regression equation and the influencing factors, and the reliability of the model was verified by F test and T test.

Keywords: Housing prices, multiple linear regression model, macroeconomic factors, Qingdao City.

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Authors: Emmanuel A. Oriaifo, Noel Perera, Alan Guy, Pak. S. Leung, Kian T. Tan

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Concerns on corrosion and effective coating protection of double hull tankers and bulk carriers in service have been raised especially in water ballast tanks (WBTs). Test protocols/methodologies specifically that which is incorporated in the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), Performance Standard for Protective Coatings for Dedicated Sea Water ballast tanks (PSPC) are being used to assess and evaluate the performance of the coatings for type approval prior to their application in WBTs. However, some of the type approved coatings may be applied as very thick films to less than ideally prepared steel substrates in the WBT. As such films experience hygrothermal cycling from operating and environmental conditions, they become embrittled which may ultimately result in cracking. This embrittlement of the coatings is identified as an undesirable feature in the PSPC but is not mentioned in the test protocols within it. There is therefore renewed industrial research aimed at understanding this issue in order to eliminate cracking and achieve the intended coating lifespan of 15 years in good condition. This paper will critically review test protocols currently used for assessing and evaluating coating performance, particularly the IMO PSPC.

Keywords: Corrosion Test, Hygrothermal Cycling, Coating Test Protocols, Water Ballast Tanks.

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Authors: Raghav Lakhotia, Chandra Kanth Nagesh, Krishna Madgula

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A lot has been said and discussed regarding the rationale and significance of the Bechdel Score. It became a digital sensation in 2013, when Swedish cinemas began to showcase the Bechdel test score of a film alongside its rating. The test has drawn criticism from experts and the film fraternity regarding its use to rate the female presence in a movie. The pundits believe that the score is too simplified and the underlying criteria of a film to pass the test must include 1) at least two women, 2) who have at least one dialogue, 3) about something other than a man, is egregious. In this research, we have considered a few more parameters which highlight how we represent females in film, like the number of female dialogues in a movie, dialogue genre, and part of speech tags in the dialogue. The parameters were missing in the existing criteria to calculate the Bechdel score. The research aims to analyze 342 movies scripts to test a hypothesis if these extra parameters, above with the current Bechdel criteria, are significant in calculating the female representation score. The result of the Principal Component Analysis method concludes that the female dialogue content is a key component and should be considered while measuring the representation of women in a work of fiction.

Keywords: Bechdel test, dialogue genre, parts of speech tags, principal component analysis.

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Authors: J. Grasaesom, S.Thong-om, W. Payakcho, B. Marungsri

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This paper presents the experimental results of silicone rubber polymer insulators for 22 kV systems under salt water dip wheel test based on IEC 62217. Straight shed silicone rubber polymer insulators having leakage distance 685 mm were tested continuously 30,000 cycles. One test cycle includes 4 positions, energized, de-energized, salt water dip and deenergized, respectively. For one test cycle, each test specimen remains stationary for about 40 second in each position and takes 8 second for rotate to next position. By visual observation, sever surface erosion was observed on the trunk near the energized end of tested specimen. Puncture was observed on the upper shed near the energized end. In addition, decreasing in hydrophobicity and increasing in hardness were measured on tested specimen comparing with new specimen. Furthermore, chemical analysis by ATR-FTIR was conducted in order to elucidate the chemical change of tested specimens comparing with new specimen.

Keywords: ageing of silicone rubber, salt water dip wheeltest, silicone rubber polymer insulator

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Authors: Jehad Al Dallal, Paul Sorenson

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An application framework provides a reusable design and implementation for a family of software systems. Frameworks are introduced to reduce the cost of a product line (i.e., family of products that share the common features). Software testing is a time consuming and costly ongoing activity during the application software development process. Generating reusable test cases for the framework applications at the framework development stage, and providing and using the test cases to test part of the framework application whenever the framework is used reduces the application development time and cost considerably. Framework Interface Classes (FICs) are classes introduced by the framework hooks to be implemented at the application development stage. They can have reusable test cases generated at the framework development stage and provided with the framework to test the implementations of the FICs at the application development stage. In this paper, we conduct a case study using thirteen applications developed using three frameworks; one domain oriented and two application oriented. The results show that, in general, the percentage of the number of FICs in the applications developed using domain frameworks is, on average, greater than the percentage of the number of FICs in the applications developed using application frameworks. Consequently, the reduction of the application unit testing time using the reusable test cases generated for domain frameworks is, in general, greater than the reduction of the application unit testing time using the reusable test cases generated for application frameworks.

Keywords: FICs, object-oriented framework, object-orientedframework application, software testing.

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Authors: Vishnu Prasad Sharma, S. Kumaraswamy, A. Mani

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This paper reports on the results of experimental investigations on the performance of a jet pump operated under selected primary flows to optimize the related parameters. For this purpose a two-phase flow jet pump was used employing various profiles of nozzles as the primary device which was designed, fabricated and used along with the combination of mixing tube and diffuser. The profiles employed were circular, conical, and elliptical. The diameter of the nozzle used was 4 mm. The area ratio of the jet pump was 0.16. The test facility created for this purpose was an open loop continuous circulation system. Performance of the jet pump was obtained as iso-efficiency curves on characteristic curves drawn for various water flow rates. To perform the suction capability, evacuation test was conducted at best efficiency point for all the profiles.

Keywords: Evacuation test, jet pump, nozzle profile, nozzle spacing, performance test, two phase flow

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Authors: M. Ramezani, Gh. Amin, E. Jalili

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In present study the effects of anti-inflammatory and antinociceptive of vitex hydro-alcoholic extract were evaluated on male mice. In inflammatory test mice were divided into 7 groups: first group was control. The second group, positive control group, received dexamethasone (15 mg/kg) and the other five groups received different doses of hydroalcohol extract of Vitex fruit (265, 365, 465, 565, and 665 mg/kg). The inflammation was caused by xylene-induced ear edema. Formalin test was used for evaluation of antinociceptive effect of extract. In this test, mice were divided into 7 groups: control, morphine (10mg/kg) as positive control group, and Vitex extract groups ((265, 365, 465, 565, and 665 mg/kg). All drugs were administered intrapritoneally, 30 min before each test. The data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA followed by Tukey-kramer multiple comparison test. Results have shown significant antiinflammatory effects of extract at all dosed as compared with control (P<0.05). In the first phase of formalin test (0-5 min) none doses of extract could inhibit acute pain, but in the second phase (15-30 min) chronic pain decreased at 265, 365, 465, and 565 mg/kg doses (P<0.05). The results of this research indicated that Vitex extract remarkably inhibited inflammation and second phase of nociception (inflammatory pain) and can be used for treatment of inflammatory diseases.

Keywords: Anti-inflammatory, Antinociceptive, Mice, Vitexagnus castus.

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Authors: Javad Razjouyan, Shahriar Gharibzadeh, Ali Fallah, Mehdi Moghaddasi, Mohsen Seyfi, Amir Kasaeian

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Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) has been used as a common research tool for different neurological disorders like Multiple Sclerosis. Recently, technology let researchers to introduce a new versions of the visual test, the paced visual serial addition test (PVSAT). In this paper, the computerized version of these two tests is introduced. Beside the number of true responses are interpreted, the reaction time of subjects are calculated by the software. We hypothesize that paying attention to the reaction time may be valuable. For this purpose, sixty eight female normal subjects and fifty eight male normal subjects are enrolled in the study. We investigate the similarity between the PASAT3 and PVSAT3 in number of true responses and the new criterion (the average reaction time of each subject). The similarity between two tests were rejected (p-value = 0.000) which means that these two test differ. The effect of sex in the tests were not approved since the pvalues of different between PASAT3 and PVSAT3 in both sex is the same (p-value = 0.000) which means that male and female subjects performed the tests at no different level of performance. The new criterion shows a negative correlation with the age which offers aged normal subjects may have the same number of true responses as the young subjects but they have latent responses. This will give prove for the importance of reaction time.

Keywords: Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Pace Visual Serial Addition Test, reaction time.

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Authors: Leila Maleki, Ezatollah Ahmadi

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The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of memory training exercise on cognitive flexibility. The method of this study was experimental. The statistical population selected 40 students 14 years old, samples were chosen by available sampling method and then they were replaced in experimental (training program) group and control group randomly and answered to Wisconsin Card Sorting Test; covariance test results indicated that there were a significant in post-test scores of experimental group (p<0.005).

Keywords: Cognitive flexibility, working memory exercises, problem solving, reaction time.

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Authors: Seung Hwan Park, Cheng-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Youngji Yoo, Daewoong An, Jun-Geol Baek

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Depending on the big data analysis becomes important, yield prediction using data from the semiconductor process is essential. In general, yield prediction and analysis of the causes of the failure are closely related. The purpose of this study is to analyze pattern affects the final test results using a die map based clustering. Many researches have been conducted using die data from the semiconductor test process. However, analysis has limitation as the test data is less directly related to the final test results. Therefore, this study proposes a framework for analysis through clustering using more detailed data than existing die data. This study consists of three phases. In the first phase, die map is created through fail bit data in each sub-area of die. In the second phase, clustering using map data is performed. And the third stage is to find patterns that affect final test result. Finally, the proposed three steps are applied to actual industrial data and experimental results showed the potential field application.

Keywords: Die-Map Clustering, Feature Extraction, Pattern Recognition, Semiconductor Manufacturing Process.

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Authors: Thanawat Chuleekiat

Abstract:

Socketing of bored piles in rock is always seen as a matter of debate on construction sites between consultants and contractors. The socketing depth normally depends on the type of rock, depth at which the rock is available below the pile cap and load carrying capacity of the pile. In this paper, the review of field load test data of drilled shaft socketed in weathered limestone conducted using conventional static pile load test and dynamic pile load test was made to evaluate a unit shaft friction for the bored piles socketed in weathered limestone (weak rock). The borehole drilling data were also reviewed in conjunction with the pile test result. In addition, the back-calculated unit shaft friction was reviewed against various empirical methods for bored piles socketed in weak rock. The paper concludes with an estimated ultimate unit shaft friction from the case study in Qatar for preliminary design.

Keywords: Piled foundation, weathered limestone, shaft friction, rock socket, pile load test.

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Authors: R. Alias, A. Kasa, M. R. Taha

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The effect of particle size on shear strength of granular materials are investigated using direct shear tests. Small direct shear test (60 mm by 60 mm by 24 mm deep) were conducted for particles passing the sieves with opening size of 2.36 mm. Meanwhile, particles passing the standard 20 mm sieves were tested using large direct shear test (300 mm by 300 mm by 200 mm deep). The large direct shear tests and the small direct shear tests carried out using the same shearing rate of 0.09 mm/min and similar normal stresses of 100, 200 and 300 kPa. The results show that the peak and residual shear strength increases as particle size increases.

Keywords: Particle size, shear strength, granular material, direct shear test.

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Authors: F. Noto, M. Castro, R. Garraffo, An. Mirabella, A. Rizzo, G. Cuttone

Abstract:

The door fan test is a verification procedure on the tightness of a room, necessary following the installation of saturation extinguishing systems and made mandatory according to the UNI 15004-1: 2019 standard whenever a gas extinguishing system is designed and installed. The door fan test was carried out at the Portopalo di Capo Passero headquarters of the Southern National Laboratories and highlighted how the Data Processing Center (CED) is perfectly up to standard, passing the door fan test in an excellent way. The Southern National Laboratories constitute a solid research reality, well established in the international scientific panorama. The CED in the Portopalo site has been expanded, so the extinguishing system has been expanded according to a detailed design. After checking the correctness of the design to verify the absence of air leaks, we carried out the door fan test. The activities of the Laboratori Nazionali del Sud (LNS) are mainly aimed at basic research in the field of Nuclear Physics, Nuclear and Particle Astrophysics. The Portopalo site will host some of the largest submarine wired scientific research infrastructures built in Europe and in the world, such as KM3NeT and EMSO ERIC; in particular, the site research laboratory in Portopalo will host the power supply and data acquisition systems of the underwater infrastructures, and a technological backbone will be created, unique in the Mediterranean, capable of allowing the connection, at abyssal depths, of dozens of real-time surveying and research structures of the marine environment deep.

Keywords: KM3Net, fire protection, door fan test, CED.

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Authors: Jaemoon Lim

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To construct the lumped spring-mass model considering the occupants for the offset frontal crash, the SISAME software and the NHTSA test data were used. The data on 56 kph 40% offset frontal vehicle to deformable barrier crash test of a MY2007 Mazda 6 4-door sedan were obtained from NHTSA test database. The overall behaviors of B-pillar and engine of simulation models agreed very well with the test data. The trends of accelerations at the driver and passenger head were similar but big differences in peak values. The differences of peak values caused the large errors of the HIC36 and 3 ms chest g’s. To predict well the behaviors of dummies, the spring-mass model for the offset frontal crash needs to be improved.

Keywords: Chest g’s, HIC36, lumped spring-mass model, offset frontal impact, SISAME.

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Authors: Zhang Jun-Tao, Hou Zhong-xi, Guo Zheng, Chen Li-li

Abstract:

This article discusses stress analysis and the shape characteristics of the inflatable wing, and then introduces the design method of inflatable wing, in order to accurately approximate a standard airfoil. It specifically analyses the aerodynamic characteristics of the inflatable wing with the method of CFD, along with comparing to standard airfoil, afterwards we carries out the manufacture of inflatable wing and the flight test.

Keywords: Inflatable wing, Stress analysis, Aerodynamic characteristics, Flight test

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Authors: S. S. Pathak, M. A. Borkar, S. S. Patel

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To compare Healing Effects of an Ayurvedic Preparation and Silver Sulfadiazine on burn wounds in Albino Rats. Methods: Albino rats– 30 male / female rats weighing between 150-200 g were used in the study. They were individually housed and maintained on normal diet and water ad libitum. Partial thickness burn wounds were inflicted, on overnight-starved animals under pentobarbitone (30mg/kg, i.p.) anaesthesia, by pouring hot molten wax at 80oC into a plastic cylinder of 300 mm2 circular openings placed on the shaven back of the animal. Apart from the drugs under investigation no local/ systemic chemotherapeutic cover will be provided to animals. All the animals were assessed for the percentage of wound contraction, signs of infection, scab formation and histopathological examination. Results: Percentage of wound healing was significantly better in the test ointment group compared to the standard. Signs of infection were observed in more animals in the test ointment group compared to the standard. Scab formation also took place earlier in the test ointment group compared to standard. Epithelial regeneration and healing profile was better in the test ointment compared to the standard. Moreover the test ointment group did not show any raised margins in the wound or blackish discoloration as was observed in silver sulfadiazine group. Conclusion: The burn wound healing effect of the ayurvedic ointment under study is better in comparison to standard therapy of silver sulfadiazine. The problem of infection encountered with the test ointment can be overcome by changing the concentrations and proportions of the ingredients in the test ointment which constitutes the further plan of the study.

Keywords: Ayurvedic test ointment, burn wounds, Silver sulfadiazine.

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Authors: Jianyin Lu, Masayoshi Seike, Wei Liu, Peihong Wu, Lihua Wang, Yihua Wu, Yasuhiro Naito, Hiromu Nakajima, Yasuhiro Kouchi

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To extract the important physiological factors related to diabetes from an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) by mathematical modeling, highly informative but convenient protocols are required. Current models require a large number of samples and extended period of testing, which is not practical for daily use. The purpose of this study is to make model assessments possible even from a reduced number of samples taken over a relatively short period. For this purpose, test values were extrapolated using a support vector machine. A good correlation was found between reference and extrapolated values in evaluated 741 OGTTs. This result indicates that a reduction in the number of clinical test is possible through a computational approach.

Keywords: SVM regression, OGTT, diabetes, mathematical model

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Authors: Ninlawat Phuangchoke, Waraporn Viyanon, Setta Sasananan

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The most important process of the water treatment plant process is coagulation, which uses alum and poly aluminum chloride (PACL). Therefore, determining the dosage of alum and PACL is the most important factor to be prescribed. This research applies an artificial neural network (ANN), which uses the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm to create a mathematical model (Soft Jar Test) for chemical dose prediction, as used for coagulation, such as alum and PACL, with input data consisting of turbidity, pH, alkalinity, conductivity, and, oxygen consumption (OC) of the Bangkhen Water Treatment Plant (BKWTP), under the authority of the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority of Thailand. The data were collected from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019 in order to cover the changing seasons of Thailand. The input data of ANN are divided into three groups: training set, test set, and validation set. The coefficient of determination and the mean absolute errors of the alum model are 0.73, 3.18 and the PACL model are 0.59, 3.21, respectively.

Keywords: Soft jar test, jar test, water treatment plant process, artificial neural network.

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Authors: Vijayalakshmy Periaswamy S., Kevin McDaid

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Testing accounts for the major percentage of technical contribution in the software development process. Typically, it consumes more than 50 percent of the total cost of developing a piece of software. The selection of software tests is a very important activity within this process to ensure the software reliability requirements are met. Generally tests are run to achieve maximum coverage of the software code and very little attention is given to the achieved reliability of the software. Using an existing methodology, this paper describes how to use Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to select unit tests based on their contribution to the reliability of the module under consideration. In particular the work examines how the approach can enhance test-first development by assessing the quality of test suites resulting from this development methodology and providing insight into additional tests that can significantly reduce the achieved reliability. In this way the method can produce an optimal selection of inputs and the order in which the tests are executed to maximize the software reliability. To illustrate this approach, a belief network is constructed for a modern software system incorporating the expert opinion, expressed through probabilities of the relative quality of the elements of the software, and the potential effectiveness of the software tests. The steps involved in constructing the Bayesian Network are explained as is a method to allow for the test suite resulting from test-driven development.

Keywords: Software testing, Test Driven Development, Bayesian Belief Networks.

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Authors: Reza Ziaie Moayad, Azam Kouhpeyma

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In-situ testing is preferred to evaluate the liquefaction potential in cohesionless soils due to high disturbance during sampling. Although new in-situ methods with high accuracy have been developed, standard penetration test, the simplest and the oldest in-situ test, is still used due to the profusion of the recorded data. This paper reviews the Iranian standard of evaluating liquefaction potential in soils (codes 525) and compares the liquefaction assessment methods based on standard penetration test (SPT) results on cohesionless soil in this standard with the international standards. To this, methods for assessing liquefaction potential are compared with what is presented in standard 525. It is found that although the procedure used in Iranian standard of evaluating the potential of liquefaction has not been updated according to the new findings, it is a conservative procedure.

Keywords: cohesionless soil, liquefaction, SPT, Iranian liquefaction standard

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Authors: Ovidiu Domşa, Nicolae Bold

Abstract:

Using Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) notions in education and three basic processes of education (teaching, learning and assessment) can bring benefits to the pupils and the professional development of teachers. In this matter, we refer to these notions as concepts taken from the informatics area and apply them to the domain of education. These notions refer to genetic algorithms and arborescent structures, used in the specific process of assessment or evaluation. This paper uses these kinds of notions to generate subtrees from a main tree of tests related between them by their degree of difficulty. These subtrees must contain the highest number of connections between the nodes and the lowest number of missing edges (which are subtrees of the main tree) and, in the particular case of the non-existence of a subtree with no missing edges, the subtrees which have the lowest (minimal) number of missing edges between the nodes, where a node is a test and an edge is a direct connection between two tests which differs by one degree of difficulty. The subtrees are represented as sequences. The tests are the same (a number coding a test represents that test in every sequence) and they are reused for each sequence of tests.

Keywords: Chromosome, genetic algorithm, subtree, test.

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Authors: Wilfred Fritz

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Grid connected solar PV inverters need to be compliant to standard regulations regarding unwanted harmonic generation. This paper gives an introduction to harmonics, solar PV inverter voltage regulation and balancing through compensation and investigates the behaviour of harmonic generation at different power levels. Practical measurements of harmonics and power levels with a power quality data logger were made, on a test network at a university in Germany. The test setup and test results are discussed. The major finding was that between the morning and afternoon load peak windows when the PV inverters operate under low solar insolation and low power levels, more unwanted harmonics are generated. This has a huge impact on the power quality of the grid as well as capital and maintenance costs. The design of a single-tuned harmonic filter towards harmonic mitigation is presented.

Keywords: Harmonics, power quality, pulse width modulation, total harmonic distortion.

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Authors: Francisco J. Lopez-Jaquez, Sandra E. Ramirez-Jara

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This paper presents an implementation and performance test of a distributed motion control system based on a master-slave configuration used to move a plasma-cutting torch over a predefined trajectory. The master is a general-purpose computer running on an open source operating system platform and software developer. Software running in the master computer generates commands on real time and we measure performance based on a selected set of differences between expected and observed distances. We are testing the null hypothesis that the outcome trajectory is identical to the input against the alternative hypothesis that there is a shift to the right or left of the input one. We used the Wilcoxon signed ranks test method for the hypothesis test.

Keywords: Distributed, motion, control, real-time, contouring.

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Authors: G. Partheepan, D.K. Sehgal, R.K. Pandey

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This paper presents a method for determining the uniaxial tensile properties such as Young-s modulus, yield strength and the flow behaviour of a material in a virtually non-destructive manner. To achieve this, a new dumb-bell shaped miniature specimen has been designed. This helps in avoiding the removal of large size material samples from the in-service component for the evaluation of current material properties. The proposed miniature specimen has an advantage in finite element modelling with respect to computational time and memory space. Test fixtures have been developed to enable the tension tests on the miniature specimen in a testing machine. The studies have been conducted in a chromium (H11) steel and an aluminum alloy (AR66). The output from the miniature test viz. load-elongation diagram is obtained and the finite element simulation of the test is carried out using a 2D plane stress analysis. The results are compared with the experimental results. It is observed that the results from the finite element simulation corroborate well with the miniature test results. The approach seems to have potential to predict the mechanical properties of the materials, which could be used in remaining life estimation of the various in-service structures.

Keywords: ABAQUS, finite element, miniature test, tensileproperties

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Authors: Junyou Shi, Weiwei Cui

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Testability modeling is a commonly used method in testability design and analysis of system. A dependency matrix will be obtained from testability modeling, and we will give a quantitative evaluation about fault detection and isolation. Based on the dependency matrix, we can obtain the diagnosis tree. The tree provides the procedures of the fault detection and isolation. But the dependency matrix usually includes built-in test (BIT) and manual test in fact. BIT runs the test automatically and is not limited by the procedures. The method above cannot give a more efficient diagnosis and use the advantages of the BIT. A Comprehensive method of fault detection and isolation is proposed. This method combines the advantages of the BIT and Manual test by splitting the matrix. The result of the case study shows that the method is effective.

Keywords: BIT, fault detection, fault isolation, testability modeling.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

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In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: Meysam Naeimi, Zili Li, Roumen Petrov, Rolf Dollevoet, Jilt Sietsma, Jun Wu

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The substantial similarity of fatigue mechanism in a new test rig for rolling contact fatigue (RCF) has been investigated. A new reduced-scale test rig is designed to perform controlled RCF tests in wheel-rail materials. The fatigue mechanism of the rig is evaluated in this study using a combined finite element-fatigue prediction approach. The influences of loading conditions on fatigue crack initiation have been studied. Furthermore, the effects of some artificial defects (squat-shape) on fatigue lives are examined. To simulate the vehicle-track interaction by means of the test rig, a threedimensional finite element (FE) model is built up. The nonlinear material behaviour of the rail steel is modelled in the contact interface. The results of FE simulations are combined with the critical plane concept to determine the material points with the greatest possibility of fatigue failure. Based on the stress-strain responses, by employing of previously postulated criteria for fatigue crack initiation (plastic shakedown and ratchetting), fatigue life analysis is carried out. The results are reported for various loading conditions and different defect sizes. Afterward, the cyclic mechanism of the test rig is evaluated from the operational viewpoint. The results of fatigue life predictions are compared with the expected number of cycles of the test rig by its cyclic nature. Finally, the estimative duration of the experiments until fatigue crack initiation is roughly determined.

Keywords: Fatigue, test rig, crack initiation, life, rail, squats.

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Authors: Samra Bajwa, Muhammad W. Siddiqi

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The study investigates the causal link between trade openness and economic growth for four South Asian countries for period 1972-1985 and 1986-2007 to examine the scenario before and after the implementation of SAARC. Panel cointegration and FMOLS techniques are employed for short run and long run estimates. In 1972-85 short run unidirectional causality from GDP to openness is found whereas, in 1986-2007 there exists bi-directional causality between GDP and openness. The long run elasticity magnitude between GDP and openness contains negative sign in 1972-85 which shows that there exists long run negative relationship. While in time period 1986-2007 the elasticity magnitude has positive sign that indicates positive causation between GDP and openness. So it can be concluded that after the implementation of SAARC overall situation of selected countries got better. Also long run coefficient of error term suggests that short term equilibrium adjustments are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium.

Keywords: Causality, Economic Growth, Panel Co-integration, SAARC, Trade Openness.

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Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

Abstract:

At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. This finding needs to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: Floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier.

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