Search results for: uncertainties.

Authors: Hossein Shahinzadeh, Ladan Darougaran, Ebrahim Jalili Sani, Hamed Yavari, Mahdi Mozaffari Legha

Abstract:

This paper present a new method for design of power system stabilizer (PSS) based on sliding mode control (SMC) technique. The control objective is to enhance stability and improve the dynamic response of the multi-machine power system. In order to test effectiveness of the proposed scheme, simulation will be carried out to analyze the small signal stability characteristics of the system about the steady state operating condition following the change in reference mechanical torque and also parameters uncertainties. For comparison, simulation of a conventional control PSS (lead-lag compensation type) will be carried out. The main approach is focusing on the control performance which later proven to have the degree of shorter reaching time and lower spike.

Keywords: Power system stabilizer (PSS), multi-machine power system, sliding mode control

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Authors: Kyung Hyun, Choi, Minh Ngoc, Nong, M. Asif Ali, Rehmani

Abstract:

This present paper proposes the modified Elastic Strip method for mobile robot to avoid obstacles with a real time system in an uncertain environment. The method deals with the problem of robot in driving from an initial position to a target position based on elastic force and potential field force. To avoid the obstacles, the robot has to modify the trajectory based on signal received from the sensor system in the sampling times. It was evident that with the combination of Modification Elastic strip and Pseudomedian filter to process the nonlinear data from sensor uncertainties in the data received from the sensor system can be reduced. The simulations and experiments of these methods were carried out.

Keywords: Collision avoidance, Avoidance obstacle, Elastic Strip, Real time collision avoidance.

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Authors: Sun Lim, Il-Kyun Jung

Abstract:

This paper describes a newly designed decentralized nonlinear control strategy to control a robot manipulator. Based on the concept of the nonlinear state feedback theory and decentralized concept is developed to improve the drawbacks in previous works concerned with complicate intelligent control and low cost effective sensor. The control methodology is derived in the sense of Lyapunov theorem so that the stability of the control system is guaranteed. The decentralized algorithm does not require other joint angle and velocity information. Individual Joint controller is implemented using a digital processor with nearly actuator to make it possible to achieve good dynamics and modular. Computer simulation result has been conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme under the occurrence of possible uncertainties and different reference trajectories. The merit of the proposed control system is indicated in comparison with a classical control system.

Keywords: Robot manipulator control, nonlinear controller, Lyapunov based stability, Interconnection compensation.

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Authors: Il Young Song, Du Yong Kim, Vladimir Shin

Abstract:

This paper reports on a receding horizon filtering for mobile robot systems with cross-correlated sensor noises and uncertainties. Also, the effect of uncertain parameters in the state of the tracking error model performance is considered. A distributed fusion receding horizon filter is proposed. The distributed fusion filtering algorithm represents the optimal linear combination of the local filters under the minimum mean square error criterion. The derivation of the error cross-covariances between the local receding horizon filters is the key of this paper. Simulation results of the tracking mobile robot-s motion demonstrate high accuracy and computational efficiency of the distributed fusion receding horizon filter.

Keywords: Distributed fusion, fusion formula, Kalman filter, multisensor, receding horizon, wheeled mobile robot

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Authors: M. Zerikat, S. Chekroun

Abstract:

This paper proposes an effective algorithm approach to hybrid control systems combining fuzzy logic and conventional control techniques of controlling the speed of induction motor assumed to operate in high-performance drives environment. The introducing of fuzzy logic in the control systems helps to achieve good dynamical response, disturbance rejection and low sensibility to parameter variations and external influences. Some fundamentals of the fuzzy logic control are preliminary illustrated. The developed control algorithm is robust, efficient and simple. It also assures precise trajectory tracking with the prescribed dynamics. Experimental results have shown excellent tracking performance of the proposed control system, and have convincingly demonstrated the validity and the usefulness of the hybrid fuzzy controller in high-performance drives with parameter and load uncertainties. Satisfactory performance was observed for most reference tracks.

Keywords: Fuzzy controller, high-performance, inductionmotor, intelligent control, robustness.

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Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

Abstract:

Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: Disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand.

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Authors: P. Zamov, H. Spangenberg

Abstract:

Presents a concept for a multidisciplinary process supporting effective task transitions between different technical domains during the architectural design stage. A system configuration challenge is the multifunctional driven increased solution space. As a consequence, more iteration is needed to find a global optimum, i.e. a compromise between involved disciplines without negative impact on development time. Since state of the art standards like ISO 15288 and VDI 2206 do not provide a detailed methodology on multidisciplinary design process, higher uncertainties regarding final specifications arise. This leads to the need of more detailed and standardized concepts or processes which could mitigate risks. The performed work is based on analysis of multidisciplinary interaction, of modeling and simulation techniques. To demonstrate and prove the applicability of the presented concept, it is applied to the design of aircraft high lift systems, in the context of the engineering disciplines kinematics, actuation, monitoring, installation and structure design.

Keywords: Systems engineering, multidisciplinary, architectural design, high lift system.

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

Abstract:

This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: Climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty.

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Authors: Aras Adhami Mirhoseini, Mohammad J. Yazdanpanah

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider nested sliding mode control of SISO nonlinear systems, perturbed by bounded matched and unmatched uncertainties. The systems are assumed to be in strict-feedback form. A step wise procedure is introduced to obtain the controller. In each step, a continuous sliding mode controller is designed as virtual control law. Then the next step sliding surface is defined by using this virtual controller. These sliding surfaces are selected as nonlinear static functions of the system states. Finally in the last step, smooth static state feedback control law is determined such that the output reaches the desired set-point while the system is forced arbitrary close to the intersection of sliding surfaces and the states remain bounded.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, Strict-feedback form, Unmatched uncertainty, output regulation.

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Authors: S. Boughanem, D. A. Jesson, M. J. Mulheron, P.A. Smith C. Eddie, S. Psomas, M. Rimes

Abstract:

Cements, which are intrinsically brittle materials, can exhibit a degree of pseudo-ductility when reinforced with a sufficient volume fraction of a fibrous phase. This class of materials, called Engineered Cement Composites (ECC) has the potential to be used in future tunneling applications where a level of pseudo-ductility is required to avoid brittle failures. However uncertainties remain regarding mechanical performance. Previous work has focused on comparatively thin specimens; however for future civil engineering applications, it is imperative that the behavior in tension of thicker specimens is understood. In the present work, specimens containing cement powder and admixtures have been manufactured following two different processes and tested in tension. Multiple matrix cracking has been observed during tensile testing, leading to a “strain-hardening" behavior, confirming the possible suitability of ECC material when used as thick sections (greater than 50mm) in tunneling applications.

Keywords: Cement composite, polymeric fibers, pseudoductility, test-geometry.

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Authors: Pawalai Kraipeerapun, Chun Che Fung, Kok Wai Wong

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel approach to the question of lithofacies classification based on an assessment of the uncertainty in the classification results. The proposed approach has multiple neural networks (NN), and interval neutrosophic sets (INS) are used to classify the input well log data into outputs of multiple classes of lithofacies. A pair of n-class neural networks are used to predict n-degree of truth memberships and n-degree of false memberships. Indeterminacy memberships or uncertainties in the predictions are estimated using a multidimensional interpolation method. These three memberships form the INS used to support the confidence in results of multiclass classification. Based on the experimental data, our approach improves the classification performance as compared to an existing technique applied only to the truth membership. In addition, our approach has the capability to provide a measure of uncertainty in the problem of multiclass classification.

Keywords: Multiclass classification, feed-forward backpropagation neural network, interval neutrosophic sets, uncertainty.

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Authors: Adeniran Ademuwagun, Alastair Allen

Abstract:

The relationship dependence between RSS and distance in an enclosed environment is an important consideration because it is a factor that can influence the reliability of any localization algorithm founded on RSS. Several algorithms effectively reduce the variance of RSS to improve localization or accuracy performance. Our proposed algorithm essentially avoids this pitfall and consequently, its high adaptability in the face of erratic radio signal. Using 3 anchors in close proximity of each other, we are able to establish that RSS can be used as reliable indicator for localization with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Inherent in this concept, is the ability for each prospective anchor to validate (guarantee) the position or the proximity of the other 2 anchors involved in the localization and vice versa. This procedure ensures that the uncertainties of radio signals due to multipath effects in enclosed environments are minimized. A major driver of this idea is the implicit topological relationship among sensors due to raw radio signal strength. The algorithm is an area based algorithm; however, it does not trade accuracy for precision (i.e the size of the returned area).

Keywords: Anchor nodes, centroid algorithm, communication graph, received signal strength (RSS).

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Authors: Yu-Kai Ting, Jia-Ying Tu, Chung-Chun Hsiao

Abstract:

New physical insights into the nonlinear Lorenz equations related to flow resistance is discussed in this work. The chaotic dynamics related to Lorenz equations has been studied in many papers, which is due to the sensitivity of Lorenz equations to initial conditions and parameter uncertainties. However, the physical implication arising from Lorenz equations about convectional motion attracts little attention in the relevant literature. Therefore, as a first step to understand the related fluid mechanics of convectional motion, this paper derives the Lorenz equations again with different forced conditions in the model. Simulation work of the modified Lorenz equations without the viscosity or buoyancy force is discussed. The time-domain simulation results may imply that the states of the Lorenz equations are related to certain flow speed and flow resistance. The flow speed of the underlying fluid system increases as the flow resistance reduces. This observation would be helpful to analyze the coupling effects of different fluid parameters in a convectional model in future work.

Keywords: Galerkin method, Lorenz equations, Navier-Stokes equations.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper investigates the application of the determinate fuzzy preference programming method for a more nuanced and comprehensive evaluation of stealth aircraft. Traditional methods often struggle to incorporate subjective factors and uncertainties inherent in complex systems like stealth aircraft. Determinate fuzzy preference programming addresses this limitation by leveraging the strengths of determinate fuzzy sets. The proposed novel multiple criteria decision-making algorithm integrates these concepts to consider aspects and criteria influencing aircraft performance. This approach aims to provide a more holistic assessment by enabling decision-makers to observe positive and negative outranking flows simultaneously. By demonstrating the validity and effectiveness of this approach through a practical example of selecting a stealth aircraft, this paper aims to establish the determinate fuzzy preference programming method as a valuable tool for informed decision-making in this critical domain.

Keywords: Determinate fuzzy set, stealth aircraft selection, distance function, decision making, uncertainty, preference programming. MCDM

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Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

Abstract:

The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFD_avg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

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Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane

Abstract:

Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

Keywords: Reliability approach, storage tanks, Monte Carlo simulation, seismic acceleration.

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Authors: T. Ganesan, M. S. Aris, I. Elamvazuthi, Momen Kamal Tageldeen

Abstract:

Terms set in power purchase agreements (PPA) challenge power utility companies in balancing between the returns (from maximizing power production) and securing long term supply contracts at capped production. The production limitation set in the PPA has driven efforts to maximize profits through efficient and economic power production. In this paper, a combined industrial-scale gas turbine (GT) - absorption chiller (AC) system is considered to cool the GT air intake for reducing the plant’s heat rate (HR). This GT-AC system is optimized while considering power output limitations imposed by the PPA. In addition, the proposed formulation accounts for uncertainties in the ambient temperature using Type-2 fuzzy programming. Using the enhanced chaotic differential evolution (CEDE), the Pareto frontier was constructed and the optimization results are analyzed in detail.

Keywords: Absorption chillers, turbine inlet air cooling, power purchase agreement, multiobjective optimization, type-2 fuzzy programming, chaotic differential evolution.

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

Abstract:

Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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Authors: Lianglin Xiong, Shouming Zhong, Mao Ye

Abstract:

This paper considers the robust exponential stability issues for a class of uncertain switched neutral system which delays switched according to the switching rule. The system under consideration includes both stable and unstable subsystems. The uncertainties considered in this paper are norm bounded, and possibly time varying. Based on multiple Lyapunov functional approach and dwell-time technique, the time-dependent switching rule is designed depend on the so-called average dwell time of stable subsystems as well as the ratio of the total activation time of stable subsystems and unstable subsystems. It is shown that by suitably controlling the switching between the stable and unstable modes, the robust stabilization of the switched uncertain neutral systems can be achieved. Two simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Switched neutral system, exponential stability, multiple Lyapunov functional, dwell time technique, time-dependent switching rule.

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Authors: Sana Bembli, Nahla Khraief Haddad, Safya Belghith

Abstract:

This paper deals with a robust model free terminal sliding mode with gravity compensation approach used to control an exoskeleton-upper limb system. The considered system is a 2-DoF robot in interaction with an upper limb used for rehabilitation. The aim of this paper is to control the flexion/extension movement of the shoulder and the elbow joints in presence of matched disturbances. In the first part, we present the exoskeleton-upper limb system modeling. Then, we controlled the considered system by the model free terminal sliding mode with gravity compensation. A stability study is realized. To prove the controller performance, a robustness analysis was needed. Simulation results are provided to confirm the robustness of the gravity compensation combined with to the Model free terminal sliding mode in presence of uncertainties.

Keywords: Exoskeleton-upper limb system, gravity compensation, model free terminal sliding mode, robustness analysis, Monte Carlo, H∞ methods.

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Authors: R. Tur, A. Yardımcı

Abstract:

Imperfect knowledge cannot be avoided all the time. Imperfections may have several forms; uncertainties, imprecision and incompleteness. When we look to classification of methods for the management of imperfect knowledge we see fuzzy set-based techniques. The choice of a method to process data is linked to the choice of knowledge representation, which can be numerical, symbolic, logical or semantic and it depends on the nature of the problem to be solved for example decision support, which will be mentioned in our study. Fuzzy Logic is used for its ability to manage imprecise knowledge, but it can take advantage of the ability of neural networks to learn coefficients or functions. Such an association of methods is typical of so-called soft computing. In this study a new method was used for the management of imprecision for collected knowledge which related to economic analysis of construction industry in Turkey. Because of sudden changes occurring in economic factors decrease competition strength of construction companies. The better evaluation of these changes in economical factors in view of construction industry will made positive influence on company-s decisions which are dealing construction.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, decision support systems, construction industry.

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Authors: Spiros Mazarakis, George Matzavinos, Peter P. Groumpos

Abstract:

Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed

Keywords: Macroeconomic Models, Mamdani Rule Based- FCMs(MBFCMs), Qualitative and Dynamics System, Simulation.

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Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, Radhika. S,

Abstract:

In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.

Keywords: Ancillary services, BPSO, Power System Economics (Electricity markets), Self-Scheduling, Sliding Window Technique.

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Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Abstract:

Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: Fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, monte carlo simulation, reliability, wind turbine.

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Authors: N. Tarom, M.M. Hossain

Abstract:

Determination of wellbore problems during a production/injection process might be evaluated thorough temperature log analysis. Other applications of this kind of log analysis may also include evaluation of fluid distribution analysis along the wellbore and identification of anomalies encountered during production/injection process. While the accuracy of such prediction is paramount, the common method of determination of a wellbore temperature log includes use of steady-state energy balance equations, which hardly describe the real conditions as observed in typical oil and gas flowing wells during production operation; and thus increase level of uncertainties. In this study, a practical method has been proposed through development of a simplified semianalytical model to apply for predicting temperature profile along the wellbore. The developed model includes an overall heat transfer coefficient accounting all modes of heat transferring mechanism, which has been focused on the prediction of a temperature profile as a function of depth for the injection/production wells. The model has been validated with the results obtained from numerical simulation.

Keywords: Energy balance equation, reservoir and well performance, temperature log, overall heat transfer coefficient.

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Authors: Saeed Vaneshani, Hooshang Jazayeri-Rad

Abstract:

Fuzzy logic control (FLC) systems have been tested in many technical and industrial applications as a useful modeling tool that can handle the uncertainties and nonlinearities of modern control systems. The main drawback of the FLC methodologies in the industrial environment is challenging for selecting the number of optimum tuning parameters. In this paper, a method has been proposed for finding the optimum membership functions of a fuzzy system using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. A synthetic algorithm combined from fuzzy logic control and PSO algorithm is used to design a controller for a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) with the aim of achieving the accurate and acceptable desired results. To exhibit the effectiveness of proposed algorithm, it is used to optimize the Gaussian membership functions of the fuzzy model of a nonlinear CSTR system as a case study. It is clearly proved that the optimized membership functions (MFs) provided better performance than a fuzzy model for the same system, when the MFs were heuristically defined.

Keywords: continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR), fuzzy logiccontrol (FLC), membership function(MF), particle swarmoptimization (PSO)

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas

Abstract:

Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.

Keywords: Short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems.

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Authors: M. Esmaeeli Shahrakht, A. Kazemi

Abstract:

Due to uncertainty of wind velocity, wind power generators don’t have deterministic output power. Utilizing wind power generation and thermal power plants together create new concerns for operation engineers of power systems. In this paper, a model is presented to implement the uncertainty of load and generated wind power which can be utilized in power system operation planning. Stochastic behavior of parameters is simulated by generating scenarios that can be solved by deterministic method. A mixed-integer linear programming method is used for solving deterministic generation scheduling problem. The proposed approach is applied to a 12-unit test system including 10 thermal units and 2 wind farms. The results show affectivity of piecewise linear model in unit commitment problems. Also using linear programming causes a considerable reduction in calculation times and guarantees convergence to the global optimum. Neglecting the uncertainty of wind velocity causes higher cost assessment of generation scheduling.

Keywords: Load uncertainty, linear programming, scenario generation, unit commitment, wind farm.

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