{"title":"Simulating and Forecasting Qualitative Marcoeconomic Models Using Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps","authors":"Spiros Mazarakis, George Matzavinos, Peter P. Groumpos","volume":73,"journal":"International Journal of Economics and Management Engineering","pagesStart":147,"pagesEnd":153,"ISSN":"1307-6892","URL":"https:\/\/publications.waset.org\/pdf\/15466","abstract":"
Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed<\/p>\r\n","references":"[1] Chian, Abraham C-L \"Complex Systems Approach to Economic\r\nDynamics\", pp. 7-33, 2005.\r\n[2] Barbier, \"The Concept of Sustainable Economic Development\",\r\nEnvironmental Conservation, 14(2), pp. 101-110, E 1987.\r\n[3] B. Kosko, \"Fuzzy cognitive maps\", Int. J. Man-Machine Studies, 24:65-\r\n75, 1986.\r\n[4] R. Taber, \"Knowledge Processing with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps\", Expert\r\nSystems with Applications, Vol.2, No.1, pp. 83-87, 1991.\r\n[5] Peter P. Groumpos, Chrysostomos D. Stylios, \"Modelling supervisory\r\ncontrol systems using fuzzy cognitive maps\", Chaos, Solutions and\r\nFractals , 11 (2000), pp. 329-336.\r\n[6] Peter P. Groumpos, \"Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: Basic Theories and their\r\nApplication to Complex Systems\", Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: Advances in\r\nTheory, Methodologies, Tools and Applications, Vol. 247, 2010,\r\nSpringer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 1-22.\r\n[7] World Bank. Pezzey,\" J. Economic Analysis of Sustainable Growth and\r\nSustainable Development\", Environmental department Working Paper\r\nNo. 15, 1989.\r\n[8] Jo\u251c\u00fao Paulo Carvalh, Jos\u00e9 A. B. Tom\u00e9, \"Qualitative Modeling of an\r\nEconomic System using Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps\", \u252c\u00bfINESCID\r\n- Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores, 2004.","publisher":"World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology","index":"Open Science Index 73, 2013"}