%0 Journal Article
	%A Milad Eghtedari Naeini and  Gholamreza Heravi
	%D 2011
	%J International Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering
	%B World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology
	%I Open Science Index 58, 2011
	%T Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting
	%U https://publications.waset.org/pdf/14159
	%V 58
	%X In this paper, based on the past project cost and time
performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is
developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept
to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this
concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled
control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for
each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing
sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are
considered through Beta distribution functions of the project
activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time
sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a
variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the
project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned
Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution
functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is
predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.
	%P 428 - 433