Search results for: energy demand forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3766

Search results for: energy demand forecasting

2686 Retarding Potential Analyzer Design and Result Analysis for Ion Energy Distribution Measurement of the Thruster Plume in the Laboratory

Authors: Ma Ya-li, Tang Fu-jun, Xue Yu-xiong, Chen Yi-feng, Gao Xin, Wang Yi, Tian Kai, Yan Ze-dong

Abstract:

Plasma plume will be produced and arrive at spacecraft when the electric thruster operates on orbit. It-s important to characterize the thruster plasma parameters because the plume has significant effects or hazards on spacecraft sub-systems and parts. Through the ground test data of the desired parameters, the major characteristics of the thruster plume will be achieved. Also it is very important for optimizing design of Ion thruster. Retarding Potential Analyzer (RPA) is an effective instrument for plasma ion energy per unit charge distribution measurement. Special RPA should be designed according to certain plume plasma parameters range and feature. In this paper, major principles usable for good RPA design are discussed carefully. Conform to these principles, a four-grid planar electrostatic energy analyzer RPA was designed to avoid false data, and details were discussed including construction, materials, aperture diameter and so on. At the same time, it was designed more suitable for credible and long-duration measurements in the laboratory. In the end, RPA measurement results in the laboratory were given and discussed.

Keywords: Thruster plume ion energy distributions, retarding potential analyzer, ground test.

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2685 Hardware Implementation of Local Binary Pattern Based Two-Bit Transform Motion Estimation

Authors: Seda Yavuz, Anıl Çelebi, Aysun Taşyapı Çelebi, Oğuzhan Urhan

Abstract:

Nowadays, demand for using real-time video transmission capable devices is ever-increasing. So, high resolution videos have made efficient video compression techniques an essential component for capturing and transmitting video data. Motion estimation has a critical role in encoding raw video. Hence, various motion estimation methods are introduced to efficiently compress the video. Low bit‑depth representation based motion estimation methods facilitate computation of matching criteria and thus, provide small hardware footprint. In this paper, a hardware implementation of a two-bit transformation based low-complexity motion estimation method using local binary pattern approach is proposed. Image frames are represented in two-bit depth instead of full-depth by making use of the local binary pattern as a binarization approach and the binarization part of the hardware architecture is explained in detail. Experimental results demonstrate the difference between the proposed hardware architecture and the architectures of well-known low-complexity motion estimation methods in terms of important aspects such as resource utilization, energy and power consumption.

Keywords: Binarization, hardware architecture, local binary pattern, motion estimation, two-bit transform.

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2684 Error Correction Codes in Wireless Sensor Network: An Energy Aware Approach

Authors: Mohammad Rakibul Islam

Abstract:

Link reliability and transmitted power are two important design constraints in wireless network design. Error control coding (ECC) is a classic approach used to increase link reliability and to lower the required transmitted power. It provides coding gain, resulting in transmitter energy savings at the cost of added decoder power consumption. But the choice of ECC is very critical in the case of wireless sensor network (WSN). Since the WSNs are energy constraint in nature, both the BER and power consumption has to be taken into count. This paper develops a step by step approach in finding suitable error control codes for WSNs. Several simulations are taken considering different error control codes and the result shows that the RS(31,21) fits both in BER and power consumption criteria.

Keywords: Error correcting code, RS, BCH, wireless sensor networks.

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2683 Economic Evaluation Offshore Wind Project under Uncertainly and Risk Circumstances

Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

Abstract:

Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: Wind energy project; uncertain resources; risks; Monte Carlo simulation.

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2682 Time and Distance Dependence of Protons Energy Loss for Laser (pw-ps) Fusion Driven Ion Acceleration

Authors: B. Malekynia

Abstract:

The anomalous generation of plasma blocks by interaction of petawatt-picosecond laser pulses permits side-on ignition of uncompressed solid fusion fuel following an improved application of the hydrodynamic Chu-model for deuterium-tritium. The new possibility of side-on laser ignition depends on accelerated ions and produced ions beams of high energy particles by the nonlinear ponderomotive force of the laser pulse in the plasma block, a re-evaluation of the early hydrodynamic analysis for ignition of inertial fusion by including inhibition factor, collective effect of stopping power of alpha particles and the energy loss rate reabsorption to plasma by the protons of plasma blocks being reduced by about a factor 40.

Keywords: Block ignition, Charged particles, Reabsorption, Skin layer ponderomotive acceleration.

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2681 A New Suburb Renovation Concept

Authors: A. Soikkeli, L. Sorri

Abstract:

Finnish national research project, User- and Business-oriented Suburb Renovation Concept (KLIKK), was started in January 2012 and will end in June 2014. The perspective of energy efficiency is emphasised in the project, but also it addresses what improving the energy efficiency of suburban apartment buildings means from the standpoint of architecturally valuable buildings representing different periods. The project will also test the impacts of stricter energy efficiency requirements on renovation projects.

The primary goal of the project is to develop a user-oriented, industrial, economic renovation concept for suburban apartment building renovation, extension and construction of additional storeys. The concept will make it possible to change from performance- and cost-based operation to novel service- and user-oriented, site-specifically tailored renovation methods utilizing integrated order and delivery chains.

The present project is collaborating with Ministry of the Environment and participating cities in developing a new type of lighter town planning model for suburban renovations and in-fill construction. To support this, the project will simultaneously develop practices for environmental impact assessment tools in renovation and suburban supplementary and in-fill construction.

 

Keywords: Energy efficiency, Prefabrication, Renovation concept, Suburbs, Sustainability, User-Orientated.

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2680 Reliability Based Optimal Design of Laterally Loaded Pile with Limited Residual Strain Energy Capacity

Authors: M. Movahedi Rad

Abstract:

In this study, a general approach to the reliability based limit analysis of laterally loaded piles is presented. In engineering practice the uncertainties play a very important role. The aim of this study is to evaluate the lateral load capacity of free-head and fixed-head long pile when plastic limit analysis is considered. In addition to the plastic limit analysis to control the plastic behaviour of the structure, uncertain bound on the complementary strain energy of the residual forces is also applied. This bound has significant effect for the load parameter. The solution to reliability-based problems is obtained by a computer program which is governed by the reliability index calculation.

Keywords: Reliability, laterally loaded pile, residual strain energy, probability, limit analysis.

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2679 Thermodynamic Approach of Lanthanide-Iron Double Oxides Formation

Authors: Vera Varazashvili, Murman Tsarakhov, Tamar Mirianashvili, Teimuraz Pavlenishvili, Tengiz Machaladze, Mzia Khundadze

Abstract:

Standard Gibbs energy of formation ΔGfor(298.15) of lanthanide-iron double oxides of garnet-type crystal structure R3Fe5O12 - RIG (R – are rare earth ions) from initial oxides are evaluated. The calculation is based on the data of standard entropies S298.15 and standard enthalpies ΔH298.15 of formation of compounds which are involved in the process of garnets synthesis. Gibbs energy of formation is presented as temperature function ΔGfor(T) for the range 300-1600K. The necessary starting thermodynamic data were obtained from calorimetric study of heat capacity – temperature functions and by using the semi-empirical method for calculation of ΔH298.15 of formation. Thermodynamic functions for standard temperature – enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy - are recommended as reference data for technological evaluations. Through the structural series of rare earth-iron garnets the correlation between thermodynamic properties and characteristics of lanthanide ions are elucidated.

Keywords: Calorimetry, entropy, enthalpy, heat capacity, gibbs energy of formation, rare earth iron garnets.

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2678 Investigating the Effective Parameters in Determining the Type of Traffic Congestion Pricing Schemes in Urban Streets

Authors: Saeed Sayyad Hagh Shomar

Abstract:

Traffic congestion pricing – as a strategy in travel demand management in urban areas to reduce traffic congestion, air pollution and noise pollution – has drawn many attentions towards itself. Unlike the satisfying findings in this method, there are still problems in determining the best functional congestion pricing scheme with regard to the situation. The so-called problems in this process will result in further complications and even the scheme failure. That is why having proper knowledge of the significance of congestion pricing schemes and the effective factors in choosing them can lead to the success of this strategy. In this study, first, a variety of traffic congestion pricing schemes and their components are introduced; then, their functional usage is discussed. Next, by analyzing and comparing the barriers, limitations and advantages, the selection criteria of pricing schemes are described. The results, accordingly, show that the selection of the best scheme depends on various parameters. Finally, based on examining the effective parameters, it is concluded that the implementation of area-based schemes (cordon and zonal) has been more successful in non-diversion of traffic. That is considering the topology of the cities and the fact that traffic congestion is often created in the city centers, area-based schemes would be notably functional and appropriate.

Keywords: Congestion pricing, demand management, flat toll, variable toll.

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2677 A Fuzzy Linear Regression Model Based on Dissemblance Index

Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

Abstract:

Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI), which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Dissemblance index, fuzzy linear regression, graded mean integration, mathematical programming.

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2676 Automation System for Optimization of Electrical and Thermal Energy Production in Cogenerative Gas Power Plants

Authors: Ion Miciu

Abstract:

The system is made with main distributed components: First Level: Industrial Computers placed in Control Room (monitors thermal and electrical processes based on the data provided by the second level); Second Level: PLCs which collects data from process and transmits information on the first level; also takes commands from this level which are further, passed to execution elements from third level; Third Level: field elements consisting in 3 categories: data collecting elements; data transfer elements from the third level to the second; execution elements which take commands from the second level PLCs and executes them after which transmits the confirmation of execution to them. The purpose of the automatic functioning is the optimization of the co-generative electrical energy commissioning in the national energy system and the commissioning of thermal energy to the consumers. The integrated system treats the functioning of all the equipments and devices as a whole: Gas Turbine Units (GTU); MT 20kV Medium Voltage Station (MVS); 0,4 kV Low Voltage Station (LVS); Main Hot Water Boilers (MHW); Auxiliary Hot Water Boilers (AHW); Gas Compressor Unit (GCU); Thermal Agent Circulation Pumping Unit (TPU); Water Treating Station (WTS).

Keywords: Automation System, Cogenerative Power Plant, Control, Monitoring, Real Time

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2675 Evaluation of A 50MW Two-Axis Tracking Photovoltaic Power Plant for AL-Jagbob, Libya: Energetic, Economic, and Environmental Impact Analysis

Authors: Y. Aldali, F. Ahwide

Abstract:

This paper investigates the application of large scale (LS-PV) two-axis tracking photovoltaic power plant in Al-Jagbob, Libya. A 50MW PV-grid connected (two-axis tracking) power plant design in Al-Jagbob, Libya has been carried out presently. A hetero-junction with intrinsic thin layer (HIT) type PV module has been selected and modeled. A Microsoft Excel-VBA program has been constructed to compute slope radiation, dew-point, sky temperature, and then cell temperature, maximum power output and module efficiency for this system, for tracking system. The results for energy production show that the total energy output is 128.5 GWh/year. The average module efficiency is 16.6%. The electricity generation capacity factor (CF) and solar capacity factor (SCF) were found to be 29.3% and 70.4% respectively. A 50MW two axis tracking power plant with a total energy output of 128.5 GWh/year would reduce CO2 pollution by 85,581 tonnes of each year. The payback time for the proposed LS-PV photovoltaic power plant was found to be 4 years.

Keywords: Large PV power plant, solar energy, environmental impact, Dual-axis tracking system.

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2674 Power Quality Improvement Using UPQC Integrated with Distributed Generation Network

Authors: B. Gopal, Pannala Krishna Murthy, G. N. Sreenivas

Abstract:

The increasing demand of electric power is giving an emphasis on the need for the maximum utilization of renewable energy sources. On the other hand maintaining power quality to satisfaction of utility is an essential requirement. In this paper the design aspects of a Unified Power Quality Conditioner integrated with photovoltaic system in a distributed generation is presented. The proposed system consist of series inverter, shunt inverter are connected back to back on the dc side and share a common dc-link capacitor with Distributed Generation through a boost converter. The primary task of UPQC is to minimize grid voltage and load current disturbances along with reactive and harmonic power compensation. In addition to primary tasks of UPQC, other functionalities such as compensation of voltage interruption and active power transfer to the load and grid in both islanding and interconnected mode have been addressed. The simulation model is design in MATLAB/ Simulation environment and the results are in good agreement with the published work.

Keywords: Distributed Generation(DG), Interconnected mode, Islanding mode, Maximum power point tracking (MPPT), Power Quality (PQ), Unified power quality conditioner (UPQC), Photovoltaic array (PV).

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2673 Bound State Solutions of the Schrödinger Equation for Hulthen-Yukawa Potential in D-Dimensions

Authors: I. Otete, A. I. Ejere, I. S. Okunzuwa

Abstract:

In this work, we used the Hulthen-Yukawa potential to obtain the bound state energy eigenvalues of the Schrödinger equation in D-dimensions within the frame work of the Nikiforov-Uvarov (NU) method. We demonstrated the graphical behaviour of the Hulthen and the Yukawa potential and investigated how the screening parameter and the potential depth affected the structure and the nature of the bound state eigenvalues. The results we obtained showed that increasing the screening parameter lowers the energy eigenvalues. Also, the eigenvalues acted as an inverse function of the potential depth. That is, increasing the potential depth reduces the energy eigenvalues.

Keywords: Schrödinger's equation, bound state, Hulthen-Yukawa potential, Nikiforov-Uvarov, D-dimensions

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2672 Unbalanced Cylindrical Magnetron for Accelerating Cavities Coating

Authors: G. Rosaz, V. Semblanet, S. Calatroni, A. Sublet, M. Taborelli

Abstract:

We report in this paper the design and qualification of a cylindrical unbalanced magnetron source. The dedicated magnetic assemblies were simulated using a finite element model. A hall-effect magnetic probe was then used to characterize those assemblies and compared to the theoretical magnetic profiles. These show a good agreement between the expected and actual values. The qualification of the different magnetic assemblies was then performed by measuring the ion flux density reaching the surface of the sample to be coated using a commercial retarding field energy analyzer. The strongest unbalanced configuration shows an increase from 0.016 A.cm-2 to 0.074 A.cm-2 of the ion flux density reaching the sample surface compared to the standard balanced configuration for a pressure 5.10-3 mbar and a plasma source power of 300 W.

Keywords: Ion energy distribution, niobium, retarding field energy analyzer, sputtering, SRF cavity, unbalanced magnetron.

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2671 The Role of Heat Pumps for the Decarbonization of European Regions

Authors: D. M. Mongelli, M. De Carli, L. Carnieletto, F. Busato

Abstract:

This research aims to provide a contribution to the reduction of fossil fuels and the consequent reduction of CO2eq emissions for each European region. Simulations have been carried out to replace fossil fuel fired heating boilers with air-to-water heat pumps, when allowed by favorable environmental conditions (outdoor temperature, water temperature in emission systems, etc.). To estimate the potential coverage of high-temperature heat pumps in European regions, the energy profiles of buildings were considered together with the potential coefficient of performance (COP) of heat pumps operating with flow temperature with variable climatic regulation. The electrification potential for heating buildings was estimated by dividing the 38 European countries examined into 179 territorial units. The yields have been calculated in terms of energy savings and CO2eq reduction.

Keywords: Decarbonization, Space heating, Heat pumps, Energy policies.

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2670 Newtonian Mechanics Descriptions for General Relativity Experimental Tests, Dark Matter and Dark Energy

Authors: Jing-Gang Xie

Abstract:

As the continuation to the previous studies of gravitational frequency shift, gravitational time dilation, gravitational light bending, gravitational waves, dark matter, and dark energy are explained in the context of Newtonian mechanics. The photon is treated as the particle with mass of hν/C2 under the gravitational field of much larger mass of M. Hence the quantum mechanics theory could be applied to gravitational field on cosmology scale. The obtained results are the same as those obtained by general relativity considering weak gravitational field approximation; however, the results are different when the gravitational field is substantially strong.

Keywords: Gravitational time dilation, gravitational light bending, gravitational waves, dark matter, dark energy, General Relativity, gravitational frequency shift.

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2669 An Optimal Algorithm for Finding (r, Q) Policy in a Price-Dependent Order Quantity Inventory System with Soft Budget Constraint

Authors: S. Hamid Mirmohammadi, Shahrazad Tamjidzad

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the single-item continuous review inventory system in which demand is stochastic and discrete. The budget consumed for purchasing the ordered items is not restricted but it incurs extra cost when exceeding specific value. The unit purchasing price depends on the quantity ordered under the all-units discounts cost structure. In many actual systems, the budget as a resource which is occupied by the purchased items is limited and the system is able to confront the resource shortage by charging more costs. Thus, considering the resource shortage costs as a part of system costs, especially when the amount of resource occupied by the purchased item is influenced by quantity discounts, is well motivated by practical concerns. In this paper, an optimization problem is formulated for finding the optimal (r, Q) policy, when the system is influenced by the budget limitation and a discount pricing simultaneously. Properties of the cost function are investigated and then an algorithm based on a one-dimensional search procedure is proposed for finding an optimal (r, Q) policy which minimizes the expected system costs.

Keywords: (r, Q) policy, Stochastic demand, backorders, limited resource, quantity discounts.

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2668 Development of PSS/E Dynamic Model for Controlling Battery Output to Improve Frequency Stability in Power Systems

Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Soon-Ryul Nam

Abstract:

The power system frequency falls when disturbance such as rapid increase of system load or loss of a generating unit occurs in power systems. Especially, increase in the number of renewable generating units has a bad influence on the power system because of loss of generating unit depending on the circumstance. Conventional technologies use frequency droop control battery output for the frequency regulation and balance between supply and demand. If power is supplied using the fast output characteristic of the battery, power system stability can be further more improved. To improve the power system stability, we propose battery output control using ROCOF (Rate of Change of Frequency) in this paper. The bigger the power difference between the supply and the demand, the bigger the ROCOF drops. Battery output is controlled proportionally to the magnitude of the ROCOF, allowing for faster response to power imbalances. To simulate the control method of battery output system, we develop the user defined model using PSS/E and confirm that power system stability is improved by comparing with frequency droop control.

Keywords: PSS/E user defined model, power deviation, frequency droop control, ROCOF, rate of change of frequency.

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2667 Supergrid Modeling and Operation and Control of Multi Terminal DC Grids for the Deployment of a Meshed HVDC Grid in South Asia

Authors: Farhan Beg, Raymond Moberly

Abstract:

The Indian subcontinent is facing a massive challenge with regards to energy security in its member countries; to provide reliable electricity to facilitate development across various sectors of the economy and consequently achieve the developmental targets. The instability of the current precarious situation is observable in the frequent system failures and blackouts.

The deployment of interconnected electricity ‘Supergrid’ designed to carry huge quanta of power across the Indian sub-continent is proposed in this paper. Not only enabling energy security in the subcontinent it will also provide a platform for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) integration. This paper assesses the need and conditions for a Supergrid deployment and consequently proposes a meshed topology based on Voltage Source High Voltage Direct Current (VSC- HVDC) converters for the Supergrid modeling. Various control schemes for the control of voltage and power are utilized for the regulation of the network parameters. A 3 terminal Multi Terminal Direct Current (MTDC) network is used for the simulations.

Keywords: Super grid, Wind and Solar energy, High Voltage Direct Current, Electricity management, Load Flow Analysis.

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2666 Wind Energy Development in the African Great Lakes Region to Supplement the Hydroelectricity in the Locality: A Case Study from Tanzania

Authors: R.M. Kainkwa

Abstract:

The African Great Lakes Region refers to the zone around lakes Victoria, Tanganyika, Albert, Edward, Kivu, and Malawi. The main source of electricity in this region is hydropower whose systems are generally characterized by relatively weak, isolated power schemes, poor maintenance and technical deficiencies with limited electricity infrastructures. Most of the hydro sources are rain fed, and as such there is normally a deficiency of water during the dry seasons and extended droughts. In such calamities fossil fuels sources, in particular petroleum products and natural gas, are normally used to rescue the situation but apart from them being nonrenewable, they also release huge amount of green house gases to our environment which in turn accelerates the global warming that has at present reached an amazing stage. Wind power is ample, renewable, widely distributed, clean, and free energy source that does not consume or pollute water. Wind generated electricity is one of the most practical and commercially viable option for grid quality and utility scale electricity production. However, the main shortcoming associated with electric wind power generation is fluctuation in its output both in space and time. Before making a decision to establish a wind park at a site, the wind speed features there should therefore be known thoroughly as well as local demand or transmission capacity. The main objective of this paper is to utilise monthly average wind speed data collected from one prospective site within the African Great Lakes Region to demonstrate that the available wind power there is high enough to generate electricity. The mean monthly values were calculated from records gathered on hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2001 to 2005) from a site in Tanzania. The documentations that were collected at a height of 2 m were projected to a height of 50 m which is the standard hub height of wind turbines. The overall monthly average wind speed was found to be 12.11 m/s whereas June to November was established to be the windy season as the wind speed during the session is above the overall monthly wind speed. The available wind power density corresponding to the overall mean monthly wind speed was evaluated to be 1072 W/m2, a potential that is worthwhile harvesting for the purpose of electric generation.

Keywords: Hydro power, windy season, available wind powerdensity.

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2665 A Simulation-Optimization Approach to Control Production, Subcontracting and Maintenance Decisions for a Deteriorating Production System

Authors: Héctor Rivera-Gómez, Eva Selene Hernández-Gress, Oscar Montaño-Arango, Jose Ramon Corona-Armenta

Abstract:

This research studies the joint production, maintenance and subcontracting control policy for an unreliable deteriorating manufacturing system. Production activities are controlled by a derivation of the Hedging Point Policy, and given that the system is subject to deterioration, it reduces progressively its capacity to satisfy product demand. Multiple deterioration effects are considered, reflected mainly in the quality of the parts produced and the reliability of the machine. Subcontracting is available as support to satisfy product demand; also, overhaul maintenance can be conducted to reduce the effects of deterioration. The main objective of the research is to determine simultaneously the production, maintenance and subcontracting rate, which minimize the total, incurred cost. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed and solved through a simulation-based approach composed of statistical analysis and optimization with the response surface methodology. The obtained results highlight the strong interactions between production, deterioration and quality, which justify the development of an integrated model. A numerical example and a sensitivity analysis are presented to validate our results.

Keywords: Deterioration, simulation, subcontracting, production planning.

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2664 An Energy Integration Approach on UHDE Ammonia Process

Authors: Alnouss M. Ahmed, Al-Nuaimi A. Ibrahim

Abstract:

In this paper, the energy performance of a selected UHDE Ammonia plant is optimized by conducting heat integration through waste heat recovery and the synthesis of a heat exchange network (HEN). Minimum hot and cold utility requirements were estimated through IChemE spreadsheet. Supporting simulation was carried out using HYSYS software. The results showed that there is no need for heating utility while the required cold utility was found to be around 268,714 kW. Hence a threshold pinch case was faced. Then, the hot and cold streams were matched appropriately. Also, waste heat recovered resulted with savings in HP and LP steams of approximately 51.0% and 99.6%, respectively. An economic analysis on proposed HEN showed very attractive overall payback period not exceeding 3 years. In general, a net saving approaching 35% was achieved in implementing heat optimization of current studied UHDE Ammonia process.

Keywords: Ammonia, Energy Optimization, Heat Exchange Network and Techno-Economic Analysis.

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2663 Improving Co-integration Trading Rule Profitability with Forecasts from an Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Paul Lajbcygier, Seng Lee

Abstract:

Co-integration models the long-term, equilibrium relationship of two or more related financial variables. Even if cointegration is found, in the short run, there may be deviations from the long run equilibrium relationship. The aim of this work is to forecast these deviations using neural networks and create a trading strategy based on them. A case study is used: co-integration residuals from Australian Bank Bill futures are forecast and traded using various exogenous input variables combined with neural networks. The choice of the optimal exogenous input variables chosen for each neural network, undertaken in previous work [1], is validated by comparing the forecasts and corresponding profitability of each, using a trading strategy.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, co-integration, forecasting, trading rule.

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2662 The Hybrid Dimming Control System for Solar Charging Robot

Authors: A. Won-Yong Chae, B. Hyung-Nam Kim, C. Kyoung-Jun Lee, D. Hee-Je Kim

Abstract:

The renewable energy has been attracting attention as a new alternative energy due to the problem of environmental pollution and resource depletion. In particular, daylighting and PV system are regarded as the solutions. In this paper, the hybrid dimming control system supplied by solar cell and daylighting system was designed. Daylighting system is main source and PV system is spare source. PV system operates the LED lamp which supports daylighting system because daylighting system is unstable due to the variation of irradiance. In addition, PV system has a role charging batteries. Battery charging has a benefit that PV system operate LED lamp in the bad weather. However, LED lamp always can`t turn on that-s why dimming control system was designed. In particular, the solar charging robot was designed to check the interior irradiance intensity. These systems and the application of the solar charging robot are expected to contribute developing alternative energy in the near future.

Keywords: Daylighting system, PV system, LED lamp, Suntracking robot.

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2661 Intelligent System and Renewable Energy: A Farming Platform in Precision Agriculture

Authors: Ryan B. Escorial, Elmer A. Maravillas, Chris Jordan G. Aliac

Abstract:

This study presents a small-scale water pumping system utilizing a fuzzy logic inference system attached to a renewable energy source. The fuzzy logic controller was designed and simulated in MATLAB fuzzy logic toolbox to examine the properties and characteristics of the input and output variables. The result of the simulation was implemented in a microcontroller, together with sensors, modules, and photovoltaic cells. The study used a grand rapid variety of lettuce, organic substrates, and foliar for observation of the capability of the device to irrigate crops. Two plant boxes intended for manual and automated irrigation were prepared with each box having 48 heads of lettuce. The observation of the system took 22-31 days, which is one harvest period of the crop. Results showed a 22.55% increase in agricultural productivity compared to manual irrigation. Aside from reducing human effort, and time, the smart irrigation system could help lessen some of the shortcomings of manual irrigations. It could facilitate the economical utilization of water, reducing consumption by 25%. The use of renewable energy could also help farmers reduce the cost of production by minimizing the use of diesel and gasoline.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, intelligent system, precision agriculture, renewable energy.

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2660 A Simulation Study of Bullwhip Effect in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Fuzzy Demand and Fuzzy Collection Rate under Possibility Constraints

Authors: Debabrata Das, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Along with forward supply chain organization needs to consider the impact of reverse logistics due to its economic advantage, social awareness and strict legislations. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics framework for a closed-loop supply chain with fuzzy demand and fuzzy collection rate by incorporating product exchange policy in forward channel and various recovery options in reverse channel. The uncertainty issues associated with acquisition and collection of used product have been quantified using possibility measures. In the simulation study, we analyze order variation at both retailer and distributor level and compare bullwhip effects of different logistics participants over time between the traditional forward supply chain and the closed-loop supply chain. Our results suggest that the integration of reverse logistics can reduce order variation and bullwhip effect of a closed-loop system. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of various parameters on recovery process and bullwhip effect.

Keywords: Bullwhip Effect, Fuzzy Possibility Measures, Reverse Supply Chain, System Dynamics.

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2659 Energy Efficient Clustering and Data Aggregation in Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Surender Kumar Soni

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are wireless networks consisting of number of tiny, low cost and low power sensor nodes to monitor various physical phenomena like temperature, pressure, vibration, landslide detection, presence of any object, etc. The major limitation in these networks is the use of nonrechargeable battery having limited power supply. The main cause of energy consumption WSN is communication subsystem. This paper presents an efficient grid formation/clustering strategy known as Grid based level Clustering and Aggregation of Data (GCAD). The proposed clustering strategy is simple and scalable that uses low duty cycle approach to keep non-CH nodes into sleep mode thus reducing energy consumption. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed GCAD protocol performs better in various performance metrics.

Keywords: Ad hoc network, Cluster, Grid base clustering, Wireless sensor network.

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2658 The Security Trade-Offs in Resource Constrained Nodes for IoT Application

Authors: Sultan Alharby, Nick Harris, Alex Weddell, Jeff Reeve

Abstract:

The concept of the Internet of Things (IoT) has received much attention over the last five years. It is predicted that the IoT will influence every aspect of our lifestyles in the near future. Wireless Sensor Networks are one of the key enablers of the operation of IoTs, allowing data to be collected from the surrounding environment. However, due to limited resources, nature of deployment and unattended operation, a WSN is vulnerable to various types of attack. Security is paramount for reliable and safe communication between IoT embedded devices, but it does, however, come at a cost to resources. Nodes are usually equipped with small batteries, which makes energy conservation crucial to IoT devices. Nevertheless, security cost in terms of energy consumption has not been studied sufficiently. Previous research has used a security specification of 802.15.4 for IoT applications, but the energy cost of each security level and the impact on quality of services (QoS) parameters remain unknown. This research focuses on the cost of security at the IoT media access control (MAC) layer. It begins by studying the energy consumption of IEEE 802.15.4 security levels, which is followed by an evaluation for the impact of security on data latency and throughput, and then presents the impact of transmission power on security overhead, and finally shows the effects of security on memory footprint. The results show that security overhead in terms of energy consumption with a payload of 24 bytes fluctuates between 31.5% at minimum level over non-secure packets and 60.4% at the top security level of 802.15.4 security specification. Also, it shows that security cost has less impact at longer packet lengths, and more with smaller packet size. In addition, the results depicts a significant impact on data latency and throughput. Overall, maximum authentication length decreases throughput by almost 53%, and encryption and authentication together by almost 62%.

Keywords: Internet of Things, IEEE 802.15.4, security cost evaluation, wireless sensor network, energy consumption.

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2657 University Students’ Perception on Public Transit in Dhaka City

Authors: Md. Mosabbir Pasha, Ijaj Mahmud Chowdhury, M. A. Afrahim Bhuiyan

Abstract:

With the increasing population and intensive land use, huge traffic demand is generating worldwide both in developing and developed countries. As a developing country, Bangladesh is also facing the same problem in recent years by producing huge numbers of daily trips. As a matter of fact, extensive traffic demand is increasing day by day. Also, transport system in Dhaka is heterogeneous, reflecting the heterogeneity in the socio-economic and land use patterns. Trips produced here are for different purposes such as work, business, educational etc. Due to the significant concentration of educational institutions a large share of the trips are generated by educational purpose. And one of the major percentages of educational trips is produced by university going students and most of them are travelled by car, bus, train, taxi, rickshaw etc. The aim of the study was to find out the university students’ perception on public transit ridership. A survey was conducted among 330 students from eight different universities. It was found out that 26% of the trips produced by university going students are travelled by public bus service and only 5% are by train. Percentage of car share is 16% and 12% of the trips are travelled by private taxi. It has been observed from the study, students those who prefer bus instead of other options, 42 percent of their family resides outside Dhaka. And those who prefer walking, of them, over 40 percent students’ family reside outside of Dhaka and of them over 85 percent students have a tendency to live in a mess. On the contrary, students travelling by car represents, most of their family reside in Dhaka. The study also revealed that the most important reason that restricts students not to use public transit is poor service. Negative attitudes such as discomfort, uneasiness in using public transit also reduces the usage of public transit. The poor waiting area is another major cause of not using public transit. Insufficient security also plays a significant role in not using public transit. On the contrary, the fare is not a problem for students those who use public transit as a mode of transportation. Students also think stations are not far away from their home or institution and they do not need to wait long for the buses or trains. It was also found accessibility to public transit is moderate.

Keywords: Traffic demand, fare, poor service, public transit ridership.

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