Search results for: Short-term load forecasting

Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

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This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: River stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform (DWT), ensemble empirical decomposition mode (EEMD), multi-station modeling.

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Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

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A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled direct normal irradiance field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Resilient Propagation, Solar Radiation, Time Series Forecasting.

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Authors: Belkacem Selma, Boumediene Selma, Samira Chouraqui, Hanifi Missoum, Tourkia Guerzou

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Natural disasters have occurred and will continue to cause human and material damage. Therefore, the idea of "preventing" natural disasters will never be possible. However, their prediction is possible with the advancement of technology. Even if natural disasters are effectively inevitable, their consequences may be partly controlled. The rapid growth and progress of artificial intelligence (AI) had a major impact on the prediction of natural disasters and risk assessment which are necessary for effective disaster reduction. Earthquake prediction to prevent the loss of human lives and even property damage is an important factor; that, is why it is crucial to develop techniques for predicting this natural disaster. This study aims to analyze the ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict earthquakes that occur in a given area. The used data describe the problem of high energy (higher than 104 J) seismic bumps forecasting in a coal mine using two long walls as an example. For this purpose, seismic bumps data obtained from mines have been analyzed. The results obtained show that the ANN is able to predict earthquake parameters with  high accuracy; the classification accuracy through neural networks is more than 94%, and the models developed are efficient and robust and depend only weakly on the initial database.

Keywords: Earthquake prediction, artificial intelligence, AI, Artificial Neural Network, ANN, seismic bumps.

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Authors: Faeka M. H. Khater, Farouk I. Ahmed, Mohamed I. Abu El- Sebah

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This paper introduces application of multi degree of freedom fuzzy(MDOFF) controller in permanent magnet (PM)drive system. The drive system model is developed for FO control. Simulation of the system is carried out to predict the performance at NL and under load,. The results indicate that application of MDOFF controller is effective for sensorless PM drive system.

Keywords: Sensorless FO controller, PM drives system, MDOFF controller.

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Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, S. Auchariyamet

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Distributed Generation (DG) in the form of renewable power generation systems is currently preferred for clean power generation. It has a significant impact on the distribution systems. This impact may be either positively or negatively depending on the distribution system, distributed generator and load characteristics. In this works, an overview of DG is briefly introduced. The technology of DG is also listed while the technical impacts and economic impacts are explained.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Technical Impacts, Economic Impacts.

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Authors: Alexandr A. Penin

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Application of projective geometry to the theory of two-ports and cascade circuits with a load change is considered. The equations linking the input and output of a two-port are interpreted as projective transformations which have the invariant as a cross-ratio of four points. This invariant has place for all regime parameters in all parts of a cascade circuit. This approach allows justifying the definition of a regime and its change, to calculate a circuit without explicitly finding the aparameters, to transmit accurately an analogue signal through the unstable two-port.

Keywords: Circuit regime, geometric circuit theory, projective geometry, two-port.

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Authors: Viraj Tyagi, Ajai Jain, P. K. Jain, Aarushi Jain

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This paper presents a genetic algorithm based loading methodology for a capacity constrained job-shop with the consideration of alternative process plans for each part to be produced. Performance analysis of the proposed methodology is carried out for two case studies by considering two different manufacturing scenarios. Results obtained indicate that the methodology is quite effective in improving the shop load balance, and hence, it can be included in the frameworks of manufacturing planning systems of job-shop oriented industries.

Keywords: Manufacturing planning, loading, genetic algorithm, Job-Shop

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Authors: S. W. Lo, S.-H. Lu, Y. H. Guo, L.-C. Hsu

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In this paper a novel design of aerostatic thrust bearing is proposed and is analyzed numerically. The capillary restrictor and bearing disk are made of elastomer like silicone and PU. The viscoelasticity of elastomer helps the capillary expand for more air flux and at the same time, allows conicity of the bearing surface to form when the air pressure is enhanced. Therefore the bearing has the better ability of passive compensation. In the present example, as compared with the typical model, the new designs can nearly double the load capability and offer four times static stiffness.

Keywords: Aerostatic, bearing, elastomer, static stiffness.

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Authors: T. Lantharthong, N. Phanthuna

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This paper presents reliability evaluation techniques which are applied in distribution system planning studies and operation. Reliability of distribution systems is an important issue in power engineering for both utilities and customers. Reliability is a key issue in the design and operation of electric power distribution systems and load. Reliability evaluation of distribution systems has been the subject of many recent papers and the modeling and evaluation techniques have improved considerably.

Keywords: Reliability Evaluation, Optimization Technique, Reliability Indices

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Authors: A. Statkus, S. Paulikas

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With increasing number of wireless devices like laptops, Wi-Fi Web Cams, network extenders, etc., a new kind of problems appeared, mostly related to poor Wi-Fi throughput or communication problems. In this paper an investigation on wireless networks and it-s saturation in Vilnius City and its surrounding is presented, covering the main problems of wireless saturation and network load during day. Also an investigation on wireless channel selection and noise levels were made, showing the impact of neighbor AP to signal and noise levels and how it changes during the day.

Keywords: IEEE 802.11b/g/n, wireless saturation, client activity, channel selection.

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Authors: Sheroz Khan, A. F. Salami, W. A. Lawal, AHM Zahirul Alam, Shihab Abdel Hameed, M. J. E.Salami

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In this paper, a multi-branch power line is modeled using ABCD matrix to show its worth as a communication channel. The model is simulated using MATLAB in an effort to investigate the effects of multiple loading, multipath, and those as a result of load mismatching. The channel transfer function is obtained and investigated using different cable lengths, and different number of bridge taps under given loading conditions.

Keywords: Power line Communication, Transfer Function, Channel Modeling, Signal Transmission.

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Authors: Taylan Kabbani, Ekrem Duman

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Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms can scale to previously intractable problems. The automation of profit generation in the stock market is possible using DRL, by combining  the financial assets price ”prediction” step and the ”allocation” step of the portfolio in one unified process to produce fully autonomous systems capable of interacting with its environment to make optimal decisions through trial and error. This work represents a DRL model to generate profitable trades in the stock market, effectively overcoming the limitations of supervised learning approaches. We formulate the trading problem as a Partially observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model, considering the constraints imposed by the stock market, such as liquidity and transaction costs. We then solved the formulated POMDP problem using the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm and achieved a 2.68 Sharpe ratio on the test dataset. From the point of view of stock market forecasting and the intelligent decision-making mechanism, this paper demonstrates the superiority of DRL in financial markets over other types of machine learning and proves its credibility and advantages of strategic decision-making.

Keywords: Autonomous agent, deep reinforcement learning, MDP, sentiment analysis, stock market, technical indicators, twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient.

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Authors: C. Kozkurt, A. Fenercioglu, M. Soyaslan

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In this study rack systems that are structural storage units of warehouses have been analyzed as structural with Finite Element Method (FEA). Each cell of discussed rack system storages pallets which have from 800 kg to 1000 kg weights and 0.80x1.15x1.50 m dimensions. Under this load, total deformations and equivalent stresses of structural elements and principal stresses, tensile stresses and shear stresses of connection elements have been analyzed. The results of analyses have been evaluated according to resistance limits of structural and connection elements. Obtained results have been presented as visual and magnitude.

Keywords: warehouse, structural analysis, AS/RS, FEM, FEA

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Authors: A. Soria-Salinas, M.-P. Zorzano, J. Martín-Torres, J. Sánchez-García-Casarrubios, J.-L. Pérez-Díaz, A. Vakkada-Ramachandran

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The current state-of-the-art methods of mass gauging of Electric Propulsion (EP) propellants in microgravity conditions rely on external measurements that are taken at the surface of the tank. The tanks are operated under a constant thermal duty cycle to store the propellant within a pre-defined temperature and pressure range. We demonstrate using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations that the heat-transfer within the pressurized propellant generates temperature and density anisotropies. This challenges the standard mass gauging methods that rely on the use of time changing skin-temperatures and pressures. We observe that the domes of the tanks are prone to be overheated, and that a long time after the heaters of the thermal cycle are switched off, the system reaches a quasi-equilibrium state with a more uniform density. We propose a new gauging method, which we call the Improved PVT method, based on universal physics and thermodynamics principles, existing TRL-9 technology and telemetry data. This method only uses as inputs the temperature and pressure readings of sensors externally attached to the tank. These sensors can operate during the nominal thermal duty cycle. The improved PVT method shows little sensitivity to the pressure sensor drifts which are critical towards the end-of-life of the missions, as well as little sensitivity to systematic temperature errors. The retrieval method has been validated experimentally with CO₂ in gas and fluid state in a chamber that operates up to 82 bar within a nominal thermal cycle of 38 °C to 42 °C. The mass gauging error is shown to be lower than 1% the mass at the beginning of life, assuming an initial tank load at 100 bar. In particular, for a pressure of about 70 bar, just below the critical pressure of CO₂, the error of the mass gauging in gas phase goes down to 0.1% and for 77 bar, just above the critical point, the error of the mass gauging of the liquid phase is 0.6% of initial tank load. This gauging method improves by a factor of 8 the accuracy of the standard PVT retrievals using look-up tables with tabulated data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Keywords: Electric propulsion, mass gauging, propellant, PVT, xenon.

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Authors: Asal Pournaghshband

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This paper presents the development of a finite element model to study the large deflection behaviour of restrained stainless steel cellular beams at elevated temperature. Cellular beams are widely used for efficient utilization of raw materials to facilitate long spans with faster construction resulting sustainable design solution that can enhance the performance and merit of any construction project. However, their load carrying capacity is less than the equivalent beams without opening due to developing shear-moment interaction at the openings. In structural frames due to elements continuity, such beams are restrained by their adjoining members which has a substantial effect on beams behaviour in fire. Stainless steel has also become integral part of the build environment due to its excellent corrosion resistance, whole life-cycle costs, and sustainability. This paper reports the numerical investigations into the effect of structural continuity on the thermo-mechanical performance of restrained steel beams with circle and elongated circle shapes of web opening in fire. The numerical model is firstly validated using existing numerical results from the literature, and then employed to perform a parametric study. Parametric studies to explore the influence of variation in i) axial restraint stiffness, ii) steel grades, iii) shape and size of web openings, and iv) load level were described. Hence, the structural continuity is evaluated through the application of different levels of axial restraints on the response of carbon steel and stainless steel cellular beam in fire. The transit temperature for stainless steel cellular beam is shown to be less affected by the level of axial stiffness than the equivalent carbon steel cellular beam. Overall, it was established that whereas stainless steel cellular beams show similar stages of behaviour of carbon steel cellular beams in fire, they are capable of withstanding higher temperatures prior to the onset of catenary action in large deflection, despite the higher thermal expansion of stainless steel material.

Keywords: Axial restraint, catenary action, cellular beam, fire, numerical modelling, stainless steel, transit temperature.

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Authors: Mostafa E. Saleh, A. Abdel Nabi, A. Baith Mohamed

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In order to make surfing the internet faster, and to save redundant processing load with each request for the same web page, many caching techniques have been developed to reduce latency of retrieving data on World Wide Web. In this paper we will give a quick overview of existing web caching techniques used for dynamic web pages then we will introduce a design and implementation model that take advantage of “URL Rewriting" feature in some popular web servers, e.g. Apache, to provide an effective approach of caching dynamic web pages.

Keywords: Web Caching, URL Rewriting, Optimizing Web Performance, Dynamic Web Pages Loading Time.

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Authors: Traian Chiulan, Brandusa Pantelimon

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The paper analyzes the large power transformer unit regimes, indicating the criteria for the management of the voltage operating conditions, as well as the change in the operating conditions with the load connected to the secondary winding of the transformer unit. Further, the paper presents the software application for the evaluation of the transformer unit operation under different conditions. The software application was developed by means of virtual instrumentation.

Keywords: Operating regimes, power transformer, overload, lifetime, virtual instrumentation.

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Authors: Stephanie Fabris Russo, Daiane Costa Guimarães, Jonas Pedro Fabris, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo, José Augusto Andrade Filho

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Among renewable energy sources, solar energy is the one that has stood out. Solar radiation can be used as a thermal energy source and can also be converted into electricity by means of effects on certain materials, such as thermoelectric and photovoltaic panels. These panels are often used to generate energy in homes, buildings, arenas, etc., and have low pollution emissions. Thus, a technological prospecting was performed to find patents related to the use of photovoltaic plates in urban residences. The patent search was based on ESPACENET, associating the keywords photovoltaic and home, where we found 136 patent documents in the period of 1994-2015 in the fields title and abstract. Note that the years 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 had the highest number of applicants, with respectively, 11, 13, 23, 29, 15 and 21. Regarding the country that deposited about this technology, it is clear that China leads with 67 patent deposits, followed by Japan with 38 patents applications. It is important to note that most depositors, 50% are companies, 44% are individual inventors and only 6% are universities. On the International Patent classification (IPC) codes, we noted that the most present classification in results was H02J3/38, which represents provisions in parallel to feed a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers. Among all categories, there is the H session, which means Electricity, with 70% of the patents.

Keywords: Prospecting, technology forecasting, photovoltaic, urban residences.

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Authors: Evgeniia V. Mekhonoshina, Vladimir Ya. Modorskii, Vasilii Yu. Petrov

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At present, vibrations of rotors of gas transmittal unit evade sustainable forecasting. This paper describes elastic oscillation modes in resilient supports and rotor impellers modeled during computational experiments with regard to interference in the system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor. Verification of aeroelastic approach was done on model problem of interaction between supersonic jet in shock tube with deformed plate. ANSYS 15.0 engineering analysis system was used as a modeling tool of numerical simulation in this paper. Finite volume method for gas dynamics and finite elements method for assessment of the strain stress state (SSS) components were used as research methods. Rotation speed and material’s elasticity modulus varied during calculations, and SSS components and gas-dynamic parameters in the dynamic system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor were evaluated. The analysis of time dependence demonstrated that gas-dynamic parameters near the rotor blades oscillate at 200 Hz, and SSS parameters at the upper blade edge oscillate four times higher, i.e. with blade frequency. It has been detected that vibration amplitudes correction in the test points at magnetic bearings by aeroelasticity may correspond up to 50%, and about -π/4 for phases.

Keywords: Centrifugal compressor, aeroelasticity, interdisciplinary calculation, oscillation phase displacement, vibration, nonstationarity.

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Authors: Sewon Kim, Changyeop Lee, Minjun Kwon

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A noble low NOx combustion technology, based on partial oxidation combustion concept in a fuel rich combustion zone, is successfully applied in this research. The burner is designed such that a portion of fuel is heated and pre-vaporized in the furnace then injected into a fuel rich combustion zone so that a partial oxidation reaction occurs. The effects of equivalence ratio, thermal load, and fuel distribution ratio on the emissions of NOx and CO are experimentally investigated. This newly developed combustion technology showed very low NOx emission level, about 12 ppm, when light oil is used as a fuel.

Keywords: Burner, low NOx, liquid fuel, partial oxidation, fuel rich.

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Authors: Abolfazl Jalilvand, Mohammad Reza Feyzi, Sohrab Khanmohammad, Mohammad Bagher Bana Sharifian, Ali Sajjadi

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Nowadays the control of stator voltage at a constant frequency is one of the traditional and low expense methods in order to control the speed of induction motors near its nominal speed. The torque of induction motor is a nonlinear function of the firing angle, phase angle and speed. In this paper the speed control of induction motor regarding various load torque and under different conditions will be investigated based on a fuzzy controller with inverse training.

Keywords: Three phase induction motor, AC converter, speedcontrol, fuzzy control.

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Authors: Anton Golubkov, Gleb Ermachkov, Aleksandr Smerdin, Oleg Sidorov, Victor Philippov

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Current collection quality is one of the limiting factors when increasing trains movement speed in the rail sector. With the movement speed growth, the impact forces on the current collector from the rolling stock and the aerodynamic influence increase, which leads to the spread in the contact pressure values, separation of the current collector head from the contact wire, contact arcing and excessive wear of the contact elements. The upcoming trend in resolving this issue is the use of the automatic control systems providing stabilization of the contact pressure value. The present paper considers the features of the contemporary automatic control systems of the current collector’s pressure; their major disadvantages have been stated. A scheme of current collector pressure automatic control has been proposed, distinguished by a proactive influence on undesirable effects. A mathematical model of contact strips wearing has been presented, obtained in accordance with the provisions of the central composition rotatable design program. The analysis of the obtained dependencies has been carried out. The procedures for determining the optimal current collector pressure on the contact wire and the pressure control principle in the pneumatic drive have been described.

Keywords: High-speed running, current collector, contact strip, mathematical model, contact pressure, program control, wear, life cycle.

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Authors: Giovanni Incerti, Luigi Solazzi, Candida Petrogalli

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This paper describes three lumped parameters models for the study of the dynamic behavior of a boom crane. The models here proposed allows to evaluate the fluctuations of the load arising from the rope and structure elasticity and from the type of the motion command imposed by the winch. A calculation software was developed in order to determine the actual acceleration of the lifted mass and the dynamic overload during the lifting phase. Some application examples are presented, with the aim of showing the correlation between the magnitude of the stress and the type of the employed motion command.

Keywords: Crane, dynamic model, overloading condition, vibration.

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Authors: Shooshpasha I., Kiakojoori M., Mirzagoltabar R. A.

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High building constructions are increasing in south beaches of the Caspian Sea because of tourist attractions and limitation of residential areas. According to saturated alluvial fields transfer of load from high structures to the soil by piles is inevitable. In spite of most of these piles are under compression forces, tension piles are used in special conditions. Few studies have been conducted because of the limited use of these piles. Tension capacity of openended pipe piles in full scale was tested in this study. The length of the bored piles was 420 up to 480 cm and all were in 120 cm diameter. The results of testing 7 piles were compared with the results of relations given by researches.

Keywords: piles, tension capacity, sand, shaft friction

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Authors: Mojibul Sajjad, Mohammad G. Rasul, Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir

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The rate of natural gas dissociation from the Coal Matrix depends on depressurization of reservoir through removing of the cleat water from the coal seam. These waters are similar to brine and aged of very long years. For improving the connectivity through fracking /fracturing, high pressure liquids are pumped off inside the coal body. A significant quantity of accumulated water, a combined mixture of cleat water and fracking fluids (back flow water) is pumped out through gas well. In Queensland, Australia Coal Seam Gas (CSG) industry is in booming state and estimated of 30,000 wells would be active for CSG production forecasting life span of 30 years. Integrated water management along with water softening programs is practiced for subsequent treatment and later on discharge to nearby surface water catchment. Water treatment is an important part of the CSG industry. A case study on a CSG site and review on the test results are discussed for assessing the Standards & Practices for management of CSG by-product water and their subsequent disposal activities. This study was directed toward (i) water management and softening process in Spring Gully CSG field, (ii) Comparative analysis on experimental study and standards and (iii) Disposal of the treated water. This study also aimed for alternative usages and their impact on vegetation, living species as well as long term effects.

Keywords: Coal Seam Gas (CSG), Cleat Water, Hydro-Fracking, Desalination, Reverse Osmosis.

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Authors: Yi He, Nutdechatorn Puangngernmak, Suramate Chalermwisutkul

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Microwave heating process has been developed about sixty years while measurement system has also progressed. Because of irradiation of high frequency of microwave, researchers have been utilized many costly technical instrument measuring parameters to evaluate the performance of microwave heating system. Therefore, this paper is intended to present an easier and feasible efficiency measurement method. It can help inspecting efficiency of microwave heating system with good accuracy, while the method can also give reference to optimizing procedure for microwave heating system for various load material

Keywords: measurement, microwave heating system, systemic power efficiency

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Authors: M.Zadshakoyan, H.Jafarzadeh, E.Abdi Sobbouhi

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Injection forging is a Nett-shape manufacturing process in which one or two punches move axially causing a radial flow into a die cavity in a form which is prescribed by the exitgeometry, such as pulley, flanges, gears and splines on a shaft. This paper presents an experimental and numerical study of the injection forging of splines in terms of load requirement and material flow. Three dimensional finite element analyses are used to investigate the effect of some important parameters in this process. The experiment has been carried out using solid commercial lead billets with two different billet diameters and four different dies.

Keywords: Injection forging, splines, material flow, FEM

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Authors: E. Ahvar, M. Fathy

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Ad hoc networks are characterized by multihop wireless connectivity, frequently changing network topology and the need for efficient dynamic routing protocols. We compare the performance of three routing protocols for mobile ad hoc networks: Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) , Ad Hoc On-Demand Distance Vector Routing (AODV), location-aided routing(LAR1).The performance differentials are analyzed using varying network load, mobility, and network size. We simulate protocols with GLOMOSIM simulator. Based on the observations, we make recommendations about when the performance of either protocol can be best.

Keywords: Ad hoc Network , Glomosim , routing protocols.

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Authors: Mingling Zheng, Zhenlong Song, Ke Xu, Hengzhu Liu

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Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) has been widely applied, but extracting SIFT feature is complicated and time-consuming. In this paper, to meet the demand of the real-time applications, SIFT is parallelized and optimized on cluster system, which is named pSIFT. Redundancy storage and communication are used for boundary data to improve the performance, and before representation of feature descriptor, data reallocation is adopted to keep load balance in pSIFT. Experimental results show that pSIFT achieves good speedup and scalability.

Keywords: cluster, image matching, parallelization and optimization, SIFT.

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Authors: Chayma Bahar, Chokri Baccouch, Hedi Sakli, Nizar Sakli

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Harvesting and transport of optical and radiofrequency signals are a topical subject with multiple challenges. In this paper, we present a Optical RECTENNA system. We propose here a hybrid system solar cell antenna for 5G mobile communications networks. Thus, we propose rectifying circuit. A parametric study is done to follow the influence of load resistance and input power on Optical RECTENNA system performance. Thus, we propose a solar cell antenna structure in the frequency band of future 5G standard in 2.45 GHz bands.

Keywords: Antenna, Rectenna, solar cell, 5G, optical RECTENNA.

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