Search results for: Attractive-repulsive swarm model

Authors: Bubaker M. F. Bushofa, Abdel Hafez A. Azab

Abstract:

This article is based on the technique which is called Discrete Parameter Tracking (DPT). First introduced by A. A. Azab [8] which is applicable for less order reference model. The order of the reference model is (n-l) and n is the number of the adjustable parameters in the physical plant. The technique utilizes a modified gradient method [9] where the knowledge of the exact order of the nonadaptive system is not required, so, as to eliminate the identification problem. The applicability of the mentioned technique (DPT) was examined through the solution of several problems. This article introduces the solution of a third order system with three adjustable parameters, controlled according to second order reference model. The adjustable parameters have great initial error which represent condition. Computer simulations for the solution and analysis are provided to demonstrate the simplicity and feasibility of the technique.

Keywords: Adaptive Control System, Discrete Parameter Tracking, Discrete Time Model.

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Authors: Insung Jung, Gi-Nam Wang

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The objective of this paper is to a design of pattern classification model based on the back-propagation (BP) algorithm for decision support system. Standard BP model has done full connection of each node in the layers from input to output layers. Therefore, it takes a lot of computing time and iteration computing for good performance and less accepted error rate when we are doing some pattern generation or training the network. However, this model is using exclusive connection in between hidden layer nodes and output nodes. The advantage of this model is less number of iteration and better performance compare with standard back-propagation model. We simulated some cases of classification data and different setting of network factors (e.g. hidden layer number and nodes, number of classification and iteration). During our simulation, we found that most of simulations cases were satisfied by BP based using exclusive connection network model compared to standard BP. We expect that this algorithm can be available to identification of user face, analysis of data, mapping data in between environment data and information.

Keywords: Neural network, Back-propagation, classification.

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Authors: Anupama Pande, Ashok Kumar Thakur, Swapnoneel Roy

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A complex valued neural network is a neural network which consists of complex valued input and/or weights and/or thresholds and/or activation functions. Complex-valued neural networks have been widening the scope of applications not only in electronics and informatics, but also in social systems. One of the most important applications of the complex valued neural network is in signal processing. In Neural networks, generalized mean neuron model (GMN) is often discussed and studied. The GMN includes a new aggregation function based on the concept of generalized mean of all the inputs to the neuron. This paper aims to present exhaustive results of using Generalized Mean Neuron model in a complex-valued neural network model that uses the back-propagation algorithm (called -Complex-BP-) for learning. Our experiments results demonstrate the effectiveness of a Generalized Mean Neuron Model in a complex plane for signal processing over a real valued neural network. We have studied and stated various observations like effect of learning rates, ranges of the initial weights randomly selected, error functions used and number of iterations for the convergence of error required on a Generalized Mean neural network model. Some inherent properties of this complex back propagation algorithm are also studied and discussed.

Keywords: Complex valued neural network, Generalized Meanneuron model, Signal processing.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Razzazi, Maryam Bayat

Abstract:

Selection of the best possible set of suppliers has a significant impact on the overall profitability and success of any business. For this reason, it is usually necessary to optimize all business processes and to make use of cost-effective alternatives for additional savings. This paper proposes a new efficient context-aware supplier selection model that takes into account possible changes of the environment while significantly reducing selection costs. The proposed model is based on data clustering techniques while inspiring certain principles of online algorithms for an optimally selection of suppliers. Unlike common selection models which re-run the selection algorithm from the scratch-line for any decision-making sub-period on the whole environment, our model considers the changes only and superimposes it to the previously defined best set of suppliers to obtain a new best set of suppliers. Therefore, any recomputation of unchanged elements of the environment is avoided and selection costs are consequently reduced significantly. A numerical evaluation confirms applicability of this model and proves that it is a more optimal solution compared with common static selection models in this field.

Keywords: Supplier Selection, Context-Awareness, OnlineAlgorithms, Data Clustering.

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Authors: Arkady Bolotin

Abstract:

Dichotomization of the outcome by a single cut-off point is an important part of various medical studies. Usually the relationship between the resulted dichotomized dependent variable and explanatory variables is analyzed with linear regression, probit regression or logistic regression. However, in many real-life situations, a certain cut-off point dividing the outcome into two groups is unknown and can be specified only approximately, i.e. surrounded by some (small) uncertainty. It means that in order to have any practical meaning the regression model must be robust to this uncertainty. In this paper, we show that neither the beta in the linear regression model, nor its significance level is robust to the small variations in the dichotomization cut-off point. As an alternative robust approach to the problem of uncertain medical categories, we propose to use the linear regression model with the fuzzy membership function as a dependent variable. This fuzzy membership function denotes to what degree the value of the underlying (continuous) outcome falls below or above the dichotomization cut-off point. In the paper, we demonstrate that the linear regression model of the fuzzy dependent variable can be insensitive against the uncertainty in the cut-off point location. In the paper we present the modeling results from the real study of low hemoglobin levels in infants. We systematically test the robustness of the binomial regression model and the linear regression model with the fuzzy dependent variable by changing the boundary for the category Anemia and show that the behavior of the latter model persists over a quite wide interval.

Keywords: Categorization, Uncertain medical categories, Binomial regression model, Fuzzy dependent variable, Robustness.

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Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy

Abstract:

The paper presents a one-dimensional transient mathematical model of thermal oil-water two-phase emulsion flows in pipes. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for the continuous fluid and droplet phases are solved. Two friction correlations for the continuous fluid phase to wall friction are accounted for in the model and tested. The aerodynamic drag force between the continuous fluid phase and droplets is modeled, too. The density and viscosity of both phases are assumed to be constant due to adiabatic experimental conditions. The proposed mathematical model is validated on the experimental measurements of oil-water emulsion flows in horizontal pipe [1,2]. Numerical analysis on single- and two-phase oil-water flows in a pipe is presented in the paper. The continuous oil flow having water droplets is simulated. Predictions, which are performed by using the presented model, show excellent agreement with the experimental data if the water fraction is equal or less than 10%. Disagreement between simulations and measurements is increased if the water fraction is larger than 10%.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Oil-Water, Pipe flows.

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Authors: Greg Turner, Bin Lu, Cheer-Sun Yang

Abstract:

As computing technology advances, smartphone applications can assist student learning in a pervasive way. For example, the idea of using mobile apps for the PA Common Trees, Pests, Pathogens, in the field as a reference tool allows middle school students to learn about trees and associated pests/pathogens without bringing a textbook. While working on the development of three heterogeneous mobile apps, we ran into numerous challenges. Both the traditional waterfall model and the more modern agile methodologies failed in practice. The waterfall model emphasizes the planning of the duration for each phase. When the duration of each phase is not consistent with the availability of developers, the waterfall model cannot be employed. When applying Agile Methodologies, we cannot maintain the high frequency of the iterative development review process, known as ‘sprints’. In this paper, we discuss the challenges and solutions. We propose a hybrid model known as the Relay Race Methodology to reflect the concept of racing and relaying during the process of software development in practice. Based on the development project, we observe that the modeling of the relay race transition between any two phases is manifested naturally. Thus, we claim that the RRM model can provide a de fecto rather than a de jure basis for the core concept in the software development model. In this paper, the background of the project is introduced first. Then, the challenges are pointed out followed by our solutions. Finally, the experiences learned and the future works are presented.

Keywords: Agile methods, mobile apps, software process model, waterfall model.

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Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

Abstract:

In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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Authors: Ö. Tolga Altınöz

Abstract:

The adaptive backstepping controller for inverted pendulum is designed by using the general motion control model. Backstepping is a novel nonlinear control technique based on the Lyapunov design approach, used when higher derivatives of parameter estimation appear. For easy parameter adaptation, the mathematical model of the inverted pendulum converted into the motion control model. This conversion is performed by taking functions of unknown parameters and dynamics of the system. By using motion control model equations, inverted pendulum is simulated without any information about not only parameters but also measurable dynamics. Also these results are compare with the adaptive backstepping controller which extended with integral action that given from [1].

Keywords: Adaptive backstepping, inverted pendulum, nonlinear adaptive control.

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Authors: Wang Xing-hua, Zhong Shun-an, Zhang Zhuo

Abstract:

A kind of behavior model for discrete sampling and hold amplifier with charge transmission is analyzed. The transfer function and behavior features are based on the main AC responses of operation amplifier. The result used in pipelined and sigma-delta ADC shows the exact of model of sampling and hold amplifier, and the non-ideal factors are taken into account.

Keywords: SHA, response, behavior, transfer function.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

Abstract:

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi

Abstract:

Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km², and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.

Keywords: Watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction.

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Authors: Nopparat Pochai

Abstract:

Smoke discharging is a main reason of air pollution problem from industrial plants. The obstacle of a building has an affect with the air pollutant discharge. In this research, a mathematical model of the smoke dispersion from two sources and one source with a structural obstacle is considered. The governing equation of the model is an isothermal mass transfer model in a viscous fluid. The finite element method is used to approximate the solutions of the model. The triangular linear elements have been used for discretising the domain, and time integration has been carried out by semi-implicit finite difference method. The simulations of smoke dispersion in cases of one chimney and two chimneys are presented. The maximum calculated smoke concentration of both cases are compared. It is then used to make the decision for smoke discharging and air pollutant control problems on industrial area.

Keywords: Air pollution, Smoke dispersion, Finite element method, Stream function, Vorticity equation, Convection-diffusion equation, Semi-implicit method

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Authors: Chao Yuan, Bao Guang Tian

Abstract:

A new relative efficiency is defined as LSE and BLUE in the generalized linear model. The relative efficiency is based on the ratio of the least eigenvalues. In this paper, we discuss about its lower bound and the relationship between it and generalized relative coefficient. Finally, this paper proves that the new estimation is better under Stein function and special condition in some degree.

Keywords: Generalized linear model, generalized relative coefficient, least eigenvalue, relative efficiency.

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Authors: A. El Amri, M. El Yakhloufi Haddou, A. Khamlichi

Abstract:

The numerical simulation based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) is widely used in academic institutes and in the industry. It is a useful tool to predict many phenomena present in the classical manufacturing forming processes such as fracture. But, the results of such numerical model depend strongly on the parameters of the constitutive behavior model. The influences of thermal and mechanical loads cause damage. The temperature and strain rate dependent materials’ properties and their modelling are discussed. A Johnson-Cook Model of damage has been selected for the numerical simulations. Virtual software called the ABAQUS 6.11 is used for finite element analysis. This model was introduced in order to give information concerning crack initiation during thermal and mechanical loads.

Keywords: Thermomechanical fatigue, failure, numerical simulation, fracture, damages.

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Authors: Yusoff Y. S., Streftaris, G., Waters, H. R

Abstract:

Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a generalized linear model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: Sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease.

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Authors: Mohammed Salem Alzahrani

Abstract:

In this paper, student admission process is studied to optimize the assignment of vacant seats with three main objectives. Utilizing all vacant seats, satisfying all programs of study admission requirements and maintaining fairness among all candidates are the three main objectives of the optimization model. Seat Assignment Method (SAM) is used to build the model and solve the optimization problem with help of Northwest Coroner Method and Least Cost Method. A closed formula is derived for applying the priority of assigning seat to candidate based on SAM.

Keywords: Admission Process Model, Assignment Problem, Hungarian Method, Least Cost Method, Northwest Corner Method, Seat Assignment Method (SAM).

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Authors: Anand Dass, Hiroaki Murakami

Abstract:

The paper outlines the drivers behind the movement from products to solutions in the Hi-Tech Business-to-Business markets. The paper lists out the challenges in enabling the transformation from products to solutions and also attempts to explore strategic and operational recommendations based on the authors- factual experiences with Japanese Hi-tech manufacturing organizations. Organizations in the Hi-Tech Business-to-Business markets are increasingly being compelled to move to a solutions model from the conventional products model. Despite the added complexity of solutions, successful technology commercialization can be achieved by making prudent choices in defining a relevant solutions model, by backing the solution model through appropriate organizational design, and by overhauling the new product development process and supporting infrastructure.

Keywords: Technology commercialization, Solutions, Hi-Tech companies, Japan, Management of technology

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Authors: Vinko Vidučić, Ljiljana Vidučić, Damir Boras

Abstract:

The goals of the research include the determination of the characteristics of SMEs finance in Croatia, as well as the determination of indirect growth rates of the information model of the entrepreneurs` perception of business environment. The research results show that cost of finance and access to finance are most important constraining factor in setting up and running the business of small entrepreneurs in Croatia. Furthermore, small entrepreneurs in Croatia are significantly dissatisfied with the administrative barriers although relatively to a lesser extent than was the case in the pre crisis time. High collateral requirement represents the main characteristic of bank lending concerning SMEs followed by long credit elaboration process. Formulated information model has defined the individual impact of indirect growth rates of the remaining variables on the model’s specific variable.

Keywords: Business environment, information model, indirect growth rates, SME finance.

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Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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Authors: A. R. Nemati, M. Haddad Zarif, M. M. Fateh

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive feedback linearization approach to derive helicopter. Ideal feedback linearization is defined for the cases when the system model is known. Adaptive feedback linearization is employed to get asymptotically exact cancellation for the inherent uncertainty in the knowledge of the given parameters of system. The control algorithm is implemented using the feedback linearization technique and adaptive method. The controller parameters are unknown where an adaptive control law aims to drive them towards their ideal values for providing perfect model matching between the reference model and the closed-loop plant model. The converged parameters of controller would then provide good estimates for the unknown plant parameters.

Keywords: Adaptive control, helicopter, feedback linearization, nonlinear control.

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Authors: N. Sefiani, L. Chraibi, K. Reklaoui, Y. Sefiani

Abstract:

Currently, business environment is characterized by pressure caused by stiff competition, constant changes (e.g., product/ technological innovations, decreasing product lifecycles, and product proliferation), and a high level of market uncertainty band unpredictability. The agility of the Supply Chain Management (SCM) is clearly identified as a key factor for success and a strategic essential lever. This paper explores the impact of deploying competence management and Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model on firm performance. Our approach is based on a systemic view by considering the SCOR reference model as the heart of competence management system.

Keywords: Competence, competence management, performance, SCOR model and agility.

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Authors: Phruksaphanrat B.

Abstract:

This research presents a fuzzy multi-objective model for a machine selection problem in a flexible manufacturing system of a tire company. Two main objectives are minimization of an average machine error and minimization of the total setup time. Conventionally, the working team uses trial and error in selecting a pressing machine for each task due to the complexity and constraints of the problem. So, both objectives may not satisfy. Moreover, trial and error takes a lot of time to get the final decision. Therefore, in this research preemptive fuzzy goal programming model is developed for solving this multi-objective problem. The proposed model can obtain the appropriate results that the Decision Making (DM) is satisfied for both objectives. Besides, alternative choice can be easily generated by varying the satisfaction level. Additionally, decision time can be reduced by using the model, which includes all constraints of the system to generate the solutions. A numerical example is also illustrated to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Machine Selection, Preemptive Fuzzy Goal Programming, Mixed Integer Programming, Application of Tire Industry.

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Authors: Samson Okwakol Ariko, Venansius Baryamureeba

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Internet Access Technologies (IAT) provide a means through which Internet can be accessed. The choice of a suitable Internet technology is increasingly becoming an important issue to ISP clients. Currently, the choice of IAT is based on discretion and intuition of the concerned managers and the reliance on ISPs. In this paper we propose a model and designs algorithms that are used in the Internet access technology specification. In the proposed model, three ranking approaches are introduced; concurrent ranking, stepwise ranking and weighted ranking. The model ranks the IAT based on distance measures computed in ascending order while the global ranking system assigns weights to each IAT according to the position held in each ranking technique, determines the total weight of a particular IAT and ranks them in descending order. The final output is an objective ranking of IAT in descending order.

Keywords: Internet Access Technology (IAT).

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Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

Abstract:

Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: Social Network, link prediction, granular computing, Type-2 fuzzy sets.

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Authors: Shrikrishan Yadav, Akhilesh Saini, Krishna Chandra Roy

Abstract:

The electromagnetic spectrum is a natural resource and hence well-organized usage of the limited natural resources is the necessities for better communication. The present static frequency allocation schemes cannot accommodate demands of the rapidly increasing number of higher data rate services. Therefore, dynamic usage of the spectrum must be distinguished from the static usage to increase the availability of frequency spectrum. Cognitive radio is not a single piece of apparatus but it is a technology that can incorporate components spread across a network. It offers great promise for improving system efficiency, spectrum utilization, more effective applications, reduction in interference and reduced complexity of usage for users. Cognitive radio is aware of its environmental, internal state, and location, and autonomously adjusts its operations to achieve designed objectives. It first senses its spectral environment over a wide frequency band, and then adapts the parameters to maximize spectrum efficiency with high performance. This paper only focuses on the analysis of Bit-Error-Rate in cognitive radio by using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm. It is theoretically as well as practically analyzed and interpreted in the sense of advantages and drawbacks and how BER affects the efficiency and performance of the communication system.

Keywords: BER, Cognitive Radio, Environmental Parameters, PSO, Radio spectrum, Transmission Parameters

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Authors: Magdy B. Eteiba, Essam A. Alzahab, Yomna O. Shaker

Abstract:

In this paper, a thermal model of cast- resin dry type transformer is proposed. The proposed thermal model is solved by finite element technique to get the temperature at any location of the transformer. The basic modes of heat transfer such as conduction; convection and radiation are used to get the steady state temperature distribution of the transformer. The predicted temperatures are compared with experimental results reported in this paper and it is found a good agreement between them. The effects of various parameters such as width of air duct, ambient temperature and emissivity of the outer surface were also studied.

Keywords: Convection, dry type transformer, finite-elementtechnique, thermal model.

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Authors: Changyi Liu, Gui Wang, Matthew Dargusch

Abstract:

Helical milling operations are used to generate or enlarge boreholes by means of a milling tool. The bore diameter can be adjusted through the diameter of the helical path. The kinematics of helical milling on a three axis machine tool is analysed firstly. The relationships between processing parameters, cutting tool geometry characters with machined hole feature are formulated. The feed motion of the cutting tool has been decomposed to plane circular feed and axial linear motion. In this paper, the time varying cutting forces acted on the side cutting edges and end cutting edges of the flat end cylinder miller is analysed using a discrete method separately. These two components then are combined to produce the cutting force model considering the complicated interaction between the cutters and workpiece. The time varying cutting force model describes the instantaneous cutting force during processing. This model could be used to predict cutting force, calculate statics deflection of cutter and workpiece, and also could be the foundation of dynamics model and predicting chatter limitation of the helical milling operations.

Keywords: Helical milling, Hole machining, Cutting force, Analytical model, Time domain

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

Abstract:

This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: Climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty.

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