Search results for: groundwater modelling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 702

Search results for: groundwater modelling

192 Estimation of Uncertainty of Thermal Conductivity Measurement with Single Laboratory Validation Approach

Authors: Saowaluck Ukrisdawithid

Abstract:

The thermal conductivity of thermal insulation materials are measured by Heat Flow Meter (HFM) apparatus. The components of uncertainty are complex and difficult on routine measurement by modelling approach. In this study, uncertainty of thermal conductivity measurement was estimated by single laboratory validation approach. The within-laboratory reproducibility was 1.1%. The standard uncertainty of method and laboratory bias by using SRM1453 expanded polystyrene board was dominant at 1.4%. However, it was assessed that there was no significant bias. For sample measurement, the sources of uncertainty were repeatability, density of sample and thermal conductivity resolution of HFM. From this approach to sample measurements, the combined uncertainty was calculated. In summary, the thermal conductivity of sample, polystyrene foam, was reported as 0.03367 W/m·K ± 3.5% (k = 2) at mean temperature 23.5 °C. The single laboratory validation approach is simple key of routine testing laboratory for estimation uncertainty of thermal conductivity measurement by using HFM, according to ISO/IEC 17025-2017 requirements. These are meaningful for laboratory competent improvement, quality control on products, and conformity assessment.

Keywords: Single laboratory validation approach, within-laboratory reproducibility, method and laboratory bias, certified reference material.

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191 Application of Feed Forward Neural Networks in Modeling and Control of a Fed-Batch Crystallization Process

Authors: Petia Georgieva, Sebastião Feyo de Azevedo

Abstract:

This paper is focused on issues of nonlinear dynamic process modeling and model-based predictive control of a fed-batch sugar crystallization process applying the concept of artificial neural networks as computational tools. The control objective is to force the operation into following optimal supersaturation trajectory. It is achieved by manipulating the feed flow rate of sugar liquor/syrup, considered as the control input. A feed forward neural network (FFNN) model of the process is first built as part of the controller structure to predict the process response over a specified (prediction) horizon. The predictions are supplied to an optimization procedure to determine the values of the control action over a specified (control) horizon that minimizes a predefined performance index. The control task is rather challenging due to the strong nonlinearity of the process dynamics and variations in the crystallization kinetics. However, the simulation results demonstrated smooth behavior of the control actions and satisfactory reference tracking.

Keywords: Feed forward neural network, process modelling, model predictive control, crystallization process.

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190 Design of Composite Risers for Minimum Weight

Authors: Chunguang Wang, Krishna Shankar, Evgeny V. Morozov

Abstract:

The use of composite materials in offshore engineering for deep sea oil production riser systems has drawn considerable interest due to the potential weight savings and improvement in durability. The design of composite risers consists of two stages: (1) local design based on critical local load cases, and (2) global analysis of the full length composite riser under global loads and assessment of critical locations. In the first stage, eight different material combinations were selected and their laminate configurations optimised under local load considerations. Stage two includes a final local stress analysis of the critical sections of the riser under the combined loads determined in the global analysis. This paper describes two design methodologies of the composite riser to provide minimum structural weight and shows that the use of off angle fibre orientations in addition to axial and hoop reinforcements offer substantial weight savings and ensure the structural capacity.

Keywords: Composite Riser, Composite Tubular, Finite Element Modelling, Global Design, Local Design, Offshore Engineering.

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189 Architecture Performance-Related Design Based on Graphic Parameterization

Authors: Wenzhe Li, Xiaoyu Ying, Grace Ding

Abstract:

Architecture plane form is an important consideration in the design of green buildings due to its significant impact on energy performance. The most effective method to consider energy performance in the early design stages is parametric modelling. This paper presents a methodology to program plane forms using MATLAB language, generating 16 kinds of plane forms by changing four designed parameters. DesignBuilder (an energy consumption simulation software) was proposed to simulate the energy consumption of the generated planes. A regression mathematical model was established to study the relationship between the plane forms and their energy consumption. The main finding of the study suggested that there was a cubic function relationship between the depth-ratio of U-shaped buildings and energy consumption, and there is also a cubic function relationship between the width-ratio and energy consumption. In the design, the depth-ratio of U-shaped buildings should not be less than 2.5, and the width-ratio should not be less than 2.

Keywords: Graphic parameterization, green building design, mathematical model, U-shaped buildings.

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188 Coastal Ecological Sensitivity and Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Sea Level Change in Apodi River (Atlantic Ocean), Northeast Brazil

Authors: Mukesh Singh Boori, Venerando Eustáquio Amaro, Helenice Vital

Abstract:

The present study has been carried out with a view to calculate the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to know the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR. Both conventional and remotely sensed data were used and analyzed through the modelling technique. Out of the total study area, 8.26% is very high risk, 14.21% high, 9.36% medium, 22.46% low and 7.35% in the very low vulnerable category, due to costal components. Results of the inundation analysis indicate that 225.2 km² and 397 km² of the land area will be submerged by flooding at 1m and 10m inundation levels. The most severely affected sectors are expected to be the residential, industrial and recreational areas. As this coast is planned for future coastal developmental activities, measures such as industrializations, building regulation, urban growth planning and agriculture, development of an integrated coastal zone management, strict enforcement of the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Act, monitoring of impacts and further research in this regard are recommended for the study area.

Keywords: Coastal planning, land use, satellite data, vulnerability.

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187 Requirements Engineering via Controlling Actors Definition for the Organizations of European Critical Infrastructure

Authors: Jiri F. Urbanek, Jiri Barta, Oldrich Svoboda, Jiri J. Urbanek

Abstract:

The organizations of European and Czech critical infrastructure have specific position, mission, characteristics and behaviour in European Union and Czech state/business environments, regarding specific requirements for regional and global security environments. They must respect policy of national security and global rules, requirements and standards in all their inherent and outer processes of supply - customer chains and networks. A controlling is generalized capability to have control over situational policy. This paper aims and purposes are to introduce the controlling as quite new necessary process attribute providing for critical infrastructure is environment the capability and profit to achieve its commitment regarding to the effectiveness of the quality management system in meeting customer/ user requirements and also the continual improvement of critical infrastructure organization’s processes overall performance and efficiency, as well as its societal security via continual planning improvement via DYVELOP modelling.

Keywords: Added Value, DYVELOP, Controlling, Environments, Process Approach.

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186 Modeling Ambient Carbon Monoxide Pollutant Due to Road Traffic

Authors: Anjaneyulu M.V.L.R., Harikrishna M., Chenchuobulu S.

Abstract:

Rapid urbanization, industrialization and population growth have led to an increase in number of automobiles that cause air pollution. It is estimated that road traffic contributes 60% of air pollution in urban areas. A case by case assessment is required to predict the air quality in urban situations, so as to evolve certain traffic management measures to maintain the air quality levels with in the tolerable limits. Calicut city in the state of Kerala, India has been chosen as the study area. Carbon Monoxide (CO) concentration was monitored at 15 links in Calicut city and air quality performance was evaluated over each link. The CO pollutant concentration values were compared with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), and the CO values were predicted by using CALINE4 and IITLS and Linear regression models. The study has revealed that linear regression model performs better than the CALINE4 and IITLS models. The possible association between CO pollutant concentration and traffic parameters like traffic flow, type of vehicle, and traffic stream speed was also evaluated.

Keywords: CO pollution, Modelling, Traffic stream parameters.

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185 Operation Strategy of Multi-Energy Storage System Considering Power System Reliability

Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

As the penetration of Energy Storage System (ESS) increases in the power system due to higher performance and lower cost than ever, ESS is expanding its role to the ancillary service as well as the storage of extra energy from the intermittent renewable energy resources. For multi-ESS with different capacity and SOC level each other, it is required to make the optimal schedule of SOC level use the multi-ESS effectively. This paper proposes the energy allocation method for the multiple battery ESS with reliability constraint, in order to make the ESS discharge the required energy as long as possible. A simple but effective method is proposed in this paper, to satisfy the power for the spinning reserve requirement while improving the system reliability. Modelling of ESS is also proposed, and reliability is evaluated by using the combined reliability model which includes the proposed ESS model and conventional generation one. In the case study, it can be observed that the required power is distributed to each ESS adequately and accordingly, the SOC is scheduled to improve the reliability indices such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE).

Keywords: Multiple energy storage system, energy allocation method, SOC schedule, reliability constraints.

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184 Implementing Delivery Drones in Logistics Business Process: Case of Pharmaceutical Industry

Authors: Nikola Vlahovic, Blazenka Knezevic, Petra Batalic

Abstract:

In this paper, we will present a research about feasibility of implementing unmanned aerial vehicles, also known as 'drones', in logistics. Research is based on available information about current incentives and experiments in application of delivery drones in commercial use. Overview of current pilot projects and literature, as well as an overview of detected challenges, will be compiled and presented. Based on these findings, we will present a conceptual model of business process that implements delivery drones in business to business logistic operations. Business scenario is based on a pharmaceutical supply chain. Simulation modeling will be used to create models for running experiments and collecting performance data. Comparative study of the presented conceptual model will be given. The work will outline the main advantages and disadvantages of implementing unmanned aerial vehicles in delivery services as a supplementary distribution channel along the supply chain.

Keywords: Business process, delivery drones, logistics, simulation modelling, unmanned aerial vehicles.

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183 Scorbot-ER 4U Using Forward Kinematics Modelling and Analysis

Authors: D. Maneetham, L. Sivhour

Abstract:

Robotic arm manipulators are widely used to accomplish many kinds of tasks. SCORBOT-ER 4u is a 5-degree of freedom (DOF) vertical articulated educational robotic arm, and all joints are revolute. It is specifically designed to perform pick and place task with its gripper. The pick and place task consists of consideration of the end effector coordinate of the robotic arm and the desired position coordinate in its workspace. This paper describes about forward kinematics modeling and analysis of the robotic end effector motion through joint space. The kinematics problems are defined by the transformation from the Cartesian space to the joint space. Denavit-Hartenberg (D-H) model is used in order to model the robotic links and joints with 4x4 homogeneous matrix. The forward kinematics model is also developed and simulated in MATLAB. The mathematical model is validated by using robotic toolbox in MATLAB. By using this method, it may be applicable to get the end effector coordinate of this robotic arm and other similar types to this arm. The software development of SCORBOT-ER 4u is also described here. PC-and EtherCAT based control technology from BECKHOFF is used to control the arm to express the pick and place task.

Keywords: Forward kinematics, D-H model, robotic toolbox, PC-and EtherCAT based control.

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182 Motor Imaginary Signal Classification Using Adaptive Recursive Bandpass Filter and Adaptive Autoregressive Models for Brain Machine Interface Designs

Authors: Vickneswaran Jeyabalan, Andrews Samraj, Loo Chu Kiong

Abstract:

The noteworthy point in the advancement of Brain Machine Interface (BMI) research is the ability to accurately extract features of the brain signals and to classify them into targeted control action with the easiest procedures since the expected beneficiaries are of disabled. In this paper, a new feature extraction method using the combination of adaptive band pass filters and adaptive autoregressive (AAR) modelling is proposed and applied to the classification of right and left motor imagery signals extracted from the brain. The introduction of the adaptive bandpass filter improves the characterization process of the autocorrelation functions of the AAR models, as it enhances and strengthens the EEG signal, which is noisy and stochastic in nature. The experimental results on the Graz BCI data set have shown that by implementing the proposed feature extraction method, a LDA and SVM classifier outperforms other AAR approaches of the BCI 2003 competition in terms of the mutual information, the competition criterion, or misclassification rate.

Keywords: Adaptive autoregressive, adaptive bandpass filter, brain machine Interface, EEG, motor imaginary.

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181 Protection of Cultural Heritage against the Effects of Climate Change Using Autonomous Aerial Systems Combined with Automated Decision Support

Authors: Artur Krukowski, Emmanouela Vogiatzaki

Abstract:

The article presents an ongoing work in research projects such as SCAN4RECO or ARCH, both funded by the European Commission under Horizon 2020 program. The former one concerns multimodal and multispectral scanning of Cultural Heritage assets for their digitization and conservation via spatiotemporal reconstruction and 3D printing, while the latter one aims to better preserve areas of cultural heritage from hazards and risks. It co-creates tools that would help pilot cities to save cultural heritage from the effects of climate change. It develops a disaster risk management framework for assessing and improving the resilience of historic areas to climate change and natural hazards. Tools and methodologies are designed for local authorities and practitioners, urban population, as well as national and international expert communities, aiding authorities in knowledge-aware decision making. In this article we focus on 3D modelling of object geometry using primarily photogrammetric methods to achieve very high model accuracy using consumer types of devices, attractive both to professions and hobbyists alike.

Keywords: 3D modeling, UAS, cultural heritage, preservation.

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180 Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Dementia from MRI Images

Authors: S. K. Aruna, S. Chitra

Abstract:

This research paper presents a framework for classifying Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) images for Dementia. Dementia, an age-related cognitive decline is indicated by degeneration of cortical and sub-cortical structures. Characterizing morphological changes helps understand disease development and contributes to early prediction and prevention of the disease. Modelling, that captures the brain’s structural variability and which is valid in disease classification and interpretation is very challenging. Features are extracted using Gabor filter with 0, 30, 60, 90 orientations and Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM). It is proposed to normalize and fuse the features. Independent Component Analysis (ICA) selects features. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier with different kernels is evaluated, for efficiency to classify dementia. This study evaluates the presented framework using MRI images from OASIS dataset for identifying dementia. Results showed that the proposed feature fusion classifier achieves higher classification accuracy.

Keywords: Magnetic resonance imaging, dementia, Gabor filter, gray level co-occurrence matrix, support vector machine.

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179 Study of Two MPPTs for Photovoltaic Systems Using Controllers Based in Fuzzy Logic and Sliding Mode

Authors: N. Ouldcherchali, M. S. Boucherit, L. Barazane, A. Morsli

Abstract:

In this study, we proposed two techniques to track the maximum power point (MPPT) of a photovoltaic system. The first is an intelligent control technique, and the second is robust used for variable structure system. In fact the characteristics I-V and P–V of the photovoltaic generator depends on the solar irradiance and temperature. These climate changes cause the fluctuation of maximum power point; a maximum power point tracking technique (MPPT) is required to maximize the output power. For this we have adopted a control by fuzzy logic (FLC) famous for its stability and robustness. And a Siding Mode Control (SMC) widely used for variable structure system. The system comprises a photovoltaic panel (PV), a DC-DC converter, which is considered as an adaptation stage between the PV and the load. The modelling and simulation of the system is developed using MATLAB/Simulink. SMC technique provides a good tracking speed in fast changing irradiation and when the irradiation changes slowly or it is constant the panel power of FLC technique presents a much smoother signal with less fluctuations.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, maximum power point, photovoltaic system, tracker, sliding mode controller.

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178 Architectural Building Safety and Health Performance Model for Stratified Low-Cost Housing: Education and Management Tool for Building Managers

Authors: Zainal Abidin Akasah, Maizam Alias, Azuin Ramli

Abstract:

The safety and health performances aspects of a building are the most challenging aspect of facility management. It requires a deep understanding by the building managers on the factors that contribute to health and safety performances. This study attempted to develop an explanatory architectural safety performance model for stratified low-cost housing in Malaysia. The proposed Building Safety and Health Performance (BSHP) model was tested empirically through a survey on 308 construction practitioners using partial least squares (PLS) and structural equation modelling (SEM) tool. Statistical analysis results supports the conclusion that architecture, building services, external environment, management approaches and maintenance management have positive influence on safety and health performance of stratified low-cost housing in Malaysia. The findings provide valuable insights for construction industry to introduce BSHP model in the future where the model could be used as a guideline for training purposes of managers and better planning and implementation of building management.

Keywords: Building management, stratified low-cost housing, Safety and health model

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177 Bond Graph and Bayesian Networks for Reliable Diagnosis

Authors: Abdelaziz Zaidi, Belkacem Ould Bouamama, Moncef Tagina

Abstract:

Bond Graph as a unified multidisciplinary tool is widely used not only for dynamic modelling but also for Fault Detection and Isolation because of its structural and causal proprieties. A binary Fault Signature Matrix is systematically generated but to make the final binary decision is not always feasible because of the problems revealed by such method. The purpose of this paper is introducing a methodology for the improvement of the classical binary method of decision-making, so that the unknown and identical failure signatures can be treated to improve the robustness. This approach consists of associating the evaluated residuals and the components reliability data to build a Hybrid Bayesian Network. This network is used in two distinct inference procedures: one for the continuous part and the other for the discrete part. The continuous nodes of the network are the prior probabilities of the components failures, which are used by the inference procedure on the discrete part to compute the posterior probabilities of the failures. The developed methodology is applied to a real steam generator pilot process.

Keywords: Redundancy relations, decision-making, Bond Graph, reliability, Bayesian Networks.

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176 Sustainable Water Utilization in Arid Region of Iran by Qanats

Authors: F. Boustani

Abstract:

To make use of the limited amounts of water in arid region, the Iranians developed man-made underground water channels called qanats (kanats) .In fact, qanats may be considered as the first long-distance water transfer system. Qanats are an ancient water transfer system found in arid regions wherein groundwater from mountainous areas, aquifers and sometimes from rivers, was brought to points of re-emergence such as an oasis, through one or more underground tunnels. The tunnels, many of which were kilometers in length, had designed for slopes to provide gravitational flow. The tunnels allowed water to drain out to the surface by gravity to supply water to lower and flatter agricultural land. Qanats have been an ancient, sustainable system facilitating the harvesting of water for centuries in Iran, and more than 35 additional countries of the world such as India, Arabia, Egypt, North Africa, Spain and even to New world. There are about 22000 qanats in Iran with 274000 kilometers of underground conduits all built by manual labor. The amount of water of the usable qanats of Iran produce is altogether 750 to 1000 cubic meter per second. The longest chain of qanat is situated in Gonabad region in Khorasan province. It is 70 kilometers long. Qanats are renewable water supply systems that have sustained agricultural settlement on the Iranian plateau for millennia. The great advantages of Qanats are no evaporation during transit, little seepage , no raising of the water- table and no pollution in the area surrounding the conduits. Qanat systems have a profound influence on the lives of the water users in Iran, and conform to Iran-s climate. Qanat allows those living in a desert environment adjacent to a mountain watershed to create a large oasis in an otherwise stark environment. This paper explains qanats structure designs, their history, objectives causing their creation, construction materials, locations and their importance in different times, as well as their present sustainable role in Iran.

Keywords: Iran, qanat, Sustainable water utilization.

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175 Application of Legendre Transformation to Portfolio Optimization

Authors: Peter Benneth, Tsaroh N. Theophilus, Prince Benjamin

Abstract:

This research work aims at studying the application of Legendre Transformation Method (LTM) to Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation which is an example of optimal control problem. We discuss the steps involved in modelling the HJB equation as it relates to mathematical finance by applying the Ito’s lemma and maximum principle theorem. By applying the LTM and dual theory, the resultant HJB equation is transformed to a linear Partial Differential Equation (PDE). Also, the Optimal Investment Strategy (OIS) and the optimal value function were obtained under the exponential utility function. Furthermore, some numerical results were also presented with observations that the OIS under exponential utility is directly proportional to the appreciation rate of the risky asset and inversely proportional to the instantaneous volatility, predetermined interest rate, risk averse coefficient. Finally, it was observed that the optimal fund size is an increasing function of the risk free interest rate. This result is consistent with some existing results.

Keywords: Legendre transformation method, Optimal investment strategy, Ito’s lemma, Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation, Geometric Brownian motion, financial market.

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174 Towards an Intelligent Ontology Construction Cost Estimation System: Using BIM and New Rules of Measurement Techniques

Authors: F. H. Abanda, B. Kamsu-Foguem, J. H. M. Tah

Abstract:

Construction cost estimation is one of the most important aspects of construction project design. For generations, the process of cost estimating has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. This has partly led to most cost estimates to be unclear and riddled with inaccuracies that at times lead to over- or underestimation of construction cost. The development of standard set of measurement rules that are understandable by all those involved in a construction project, have not totally solved the challenges. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM) technologies can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improve accuracies. This requires standard measurement methods to be structured in ontological and machine readable format; so that BIM software packages can easily read them. Most standard measurement methods are still text-based in textbooks and require manual editing into tables or Spreadsheet during cost estimation. The aim of this study is to explore the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM) commonly used in the UK for cost estimation. The methodology adopted is Methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. The challenges in this exploratory study are also reported and recommendations for future studies proposed.

Keywords: BIM, Construction projects, Cost estimation, NRM, Ontology.

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173 Performance of Derna Steam Power Plant at Varying Super-Heater Operating Conditions Based on Exergy

Authors: Idris Elfeituri

Abstract:

In the current study, energy and exergy analysis of a 65 MW steam power plant was carried out. This study investigated the effect of variations of overall conductance of the super heater on the performance of an existing steam power plant located in Derna, Libya. The performance of the power plant was estimated by a mathematical modelling which considers the off-design operating conditions of each component. A fully interactive computer program based on the mass, energy and exergy balance equations has been developed. The maximum exergy destruction has been found in the steam generation unit. A 50% reduction in the design value of overall conductance of the super heater has been achieved, which accordingly decreases the amount of the net electrical power that would be generated by at least 13 MW, as well as the overall plant exergy efficiency by at least 6.4%, and at the same time that would cause an increase of the total exergy destruction by at least 14 MW. The achieved results showed that the super heater design and operating conditions play an important role on the thermodynamics performance and the fuel utilization of the power plant. Moreover, these considerations are very useful in the process of the decision that should be taken at the occasions of deciding whether to replace or renovate the super heater of the power plant.

Keywords: Exergy, super-heater, fouling, steam power plant, off-design.

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172 Finite Element Application to Estimate Inservice Material Properties using Miniature Specimen

Authors: G. Partheepan, D.K. Sehgal, R.K. Pandey

Abstract:

This paper presents a method for determining the uniaxial tensile properties such as Young-s modulus, yield strength and the flow behaviour of a material in a virtually non-destructive manner. To achieve this, a new dumb-bell shaped miniature specimen has been designed. This helps in avoiding the removal of large size material samples from the in-service component for the evaluation of current material properties. The proposed miniature specimen has an advantage in finite element modelling with respect to computational time and memory space. Test fixtures have been developed to enable the tension tests on the miniature specimen in a testing machine. The studies have been conducted in a chromium (H11) steel and an aluminum alloy (AR66). The output from the miniature test viz. load-elongation diagram is obtained and the finite element simulation of the test is carried out using a 2D plane stress analysis. The results are compared with the experimental results. It is observed that the results from the finite element simulation corroborate well with the miniature test results. The approach seems to have potential to predict the mechanical properties of the materials, which could be used in remaining life estimation of the various in-service structures.

Keywords: ABAQUS, finite element, miniature test, tensileproperties

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171 Bearing Capacity of Sheet Hanger Connection to the Trapezoidal Metal Sheet

Authors: Kateřina Jurdová

Abstract:

Hanging to the trapezoidal sheet by decking hanger is a very widespread solution used in civil engineering to lead the distribution of energy, sanitary, air distribution system etc. under the roof or floor structure. The trapezoidal decking hanger is usually a part of the whole installation system for specific distribution medium. The leading companies offer installation systems for each specific distribution e.g. pipe rings, sprinkler systems, installation channels etc. Every specific part is connected to the base connector which is decking hanger. The own connection has three main components: decking hanger, threaded bar with nuts and web of trapezoidal sheet. The aim of this contribution is determinate the failure mechanism of each component in connection. Load bearing capacity of most components in connection could be calculated by formulas in European codes. This contribution is focused on problematic of bearing resistance of threaded bar in web of trapezoidal sheet. This issue is studied by experimental research and numerical modelling. This contribution presented the initial results of experiment which is compared with numerical model of specimen.

Keywords: Decking hanger, concentrated load, connection, load bearing capacity, trapezoidal metal sheet.

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170 Mathematical Analysis of Stock Prices Prediction in a Financial Market Using Geometric Brownian Motion Model

Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

Abstract:

The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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169 Modelling, Simulation and Validation of Plastic Zone Size during Deformation of Mild Steel

Authors: S. O. Adeosun, E. I. Akpan, S. A. Balogun, O. O. Taiwo

Abstract:

A model to predict the plastic zone size for material under plane stress condition has been developed and verified experimentally. The developed model is a function of crack size, crack angle and material property (dislocation density). Simulation and validation results show that the model developed show good agreement with experimental results. Samples of low carbon steel (0.035%C) with included surface crack angles of 45o, 50o, 60o, 70o and 90o and crack depths of 2mm and 4mm were subjected to low strain rate between 0.48 x 10-3 s-1 – 2.38 x 10-3 s-1. The mechanical properties studied were ductility, tensile strength, modulus of elasticity, yield strength, yield strain, stress at fracture and fracture toughness. The experimental study shows that strain rate has no appreciable effect on the size of plastic zone while crack depth and crack angle plays an imperative role in determining the size of the plastic zone of mild steel materials.

Keywords: Applied stress, crack angle, crack size, material property, plastic zone size, strain rate.

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168 Methodology for Developing an Intelligent Tutoring System Based on Marzano’s Taxonomy

Authors: Joaquin Navarro Perales, Ana Lidia Franzoni Velázquez, Francisco Cervantes Pérez

Abstract:

The Mexican educational system faces diverse challenges related with the quality and coverage of education. The development of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) may help to solve some of them by helping teachers to customize their classes according to the performance of the students in online courses. In this work, we propose the adaptation of a functional ITS based on Bloom’s taxonomy called Sistema de Apoyo Generalizado para la Enseñanza Individualizada (SAGE), to measure student’s metacognition and their emotional response based on Marzano’s taxonomy. The students and the system will share the control over the advance in the course, so they can improve their metacognitive skills. The system will not allow students to get access to subjects not mastered yet. The interaction between the system and the student will be implemented through Natural Language Processing techniques, thus avoiding the use of sensors to evaluate student’s response. The teacher will evaluate student’s knowledge utilization, which is equivalent to the last cognitive level in Marzano’s taxonomy.

Keywords: Intelligent tutoring systems, student modelling, metacognition, affective computing, natural language processing.

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167 Developing a New Relationship between Undrained Shear Strength and Over-Consolidation Ratio

Authors: Wael M Albadri, Hassnen M Jafer, Ehab H Sfoog

Abstract:

Relationship between undrained shear strength (Su) and over consolidation ratio (OCR) of clay soil (marine clay) is very important in the field of geotechnical engineering to estimate the settlement behaviour of clay and to prepare a small scale physical modelling test. In this study, a relationship between shear strength and OCR parameters was determined using the laboratory vane shear apparatus and the fully automatic consolidated apparatus. The main objective was to establish non-linear correlation formula between shear strength and OCR and comparing it with previous studies. Therefore, in order to achieve this objective, three points were chosen to obtain 18 undisturbed samples which were collected with an increasing depth of 1.0 m to 3.5 m each 0.5 m. Clay samples were prepared under undrained condition for both tests. It was found that the OCR and shear strength are inversely proportional at similar depth and at same undrained conditions. However, a good correlation was obtained from the relationships where the R2 values were very close to 1.0 using polynomial equations. The comparison between the experimental result and previous equation from other researchers produced a non-linear correlation which has a similar pattern with this study.

Keywords: Shear strength, over-consolidation ratio, vane shear test, clayey soil.

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166 An Investigation on Overstrength Factor (Ω) of Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Turkish Earthquake Draft Code (TEC-2016)

Authors: M. Hakan Arslan, I. Hakkı Erkan

Abstract:

Overstrength factor is an important parameter of load reduction factor. In this research, the overstrength factor (Ω) of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings and the parameters of Ω in TEC-2016 draft version have been explored. For this aim, 48 RC buildings have been modeled according to the current seismic code TEC-2007 and Turkish Building Code-500-2000 criteria. After modelling step, nonlinear static pushover analyses have been applied to these buildings by using TEC-2007 Section 7. After the nonlinear pushover analyses, capacity curves (lateral load-lateral top displacement curves) have been plotted for 48 RC buildings. Using capacity curves, overstrength factors (Ω) have been derived for each building. The obtained overstrength factor (Ω) values have been compared with TEC-2016 values for related building types, and the results have been interpreted. According to the obtained values from the study, overstrength factor (Ω) given in TEC-2016 draft code is found quite suitable.

Keywords: Reinforced concrete buildings, overstrength factor, earthquake, static pushover analysis.

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165 Performance Evaluation of a ‘Priority-Controlled’ Intersection Converted to Signal-Controlled Intersection

Authors: Ezenwa Chinenye Amanamba

Abstract:

There is a call to ensure that the issues of safety and efficient throughput are considered during design; the solutions to these issues can also be retrofitted at locations where they were not captured during design, but have become problems to road users over time. This paper adopts several methods to analyze the performance of an intersection which was formerly a ‘priority-controlled’ intersection, but has now been converted to a ‘signal-controlled’ intersection. Extensive review of literature helped form the basis for result analysis and discussion. The Ikot-Ekpene/Anagha-Ezikpe intersection, located at the heart of Umuahia was adopted as case study; considering the high traffic volume on the route. Anecdotal evidence revealed that traffic signals imposed enormous delays at the intersection, especially for traffic on the major road. The major road has arrival flow which surpasses the saturation flow obtained from modelling of the isolated signalized intersection. Similarly, there were several geometric elements that did not agree with the specific function of the road. A roundabout, particularly flower roundabout was recommended as a better traffic control measure.

Keywords: Highway function, level of service, roundabout, traffic delays, Umuahia.

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164 Finite Element Analysis of Different Architectures for Bone Scaffold

Authors: Nimisha R. Shirbhate, Sanjay Bokade

Abstract:

Bone Scaffolds are fundamental architecture or a support structure that allows the regeneration of lost or damaged tissues and they are developed as a crucial tool in biomedical engineering. The structure of bone scaffolds plays an important role in treating bone defects. The shape of the bone scaffold performs a vital role, specifically pore size and shape, which help understand the behavior and strength of the scaffold. In this article, first, fundamental aspects of bone scaffold design are established. Second, the behavior of each architecture of the bone scaffold with biomaterials is discussed. Finally, for each structure, the stress analysis was carried out. This study aimed to design a porous and mechanically strong bone regeneration scaffold that can be successfully manufactured. Four porous architectures of the bone scaffold were designed using Rhinoceros solid modelling software. The structure model consisted of repeatable unit cells arranged in layers to fill the chosen scaffold volume. The mechanical behavior of used biocompatible material is studied with the help of ANSYS 19.2 software. It is also playing significant role to predict the strength of defined structures or 3 dimensional models.

Keywords: Bone scaffold, stress analysis, porous structure, static loading.

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163 Sediment Patterns from Fluid-Bed Interactions: A Direct Numerical Simulations Study on Fluvial Turbulent Flows

Authors: Nadim Zgheib, Sivaramakrishnan Balachandar

Abstract:

We present results on the initial formation of ripples from an initially flattened erodible bed. We use direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent open channel flow over a fixed sinusoidal bed coupled with hydrodynamic stability analysis. We use the direct forcing immersed boundary method to account for the presence of the sediment bed. The resolved flow provides the bed shear stress and consequently the sediment transport rate, which is needed in the stability analysis of the Exner equation. The approach is different from traditional linear stability analysis in the sense that the phase lag between the bed topology, and the sediment flux is obtained from the DNS. We ran 11 simulations at a fixed shear Reynolds number of 180, but for different sediment bed wavelengths. The analysis allows us to sweep a large range of physical and modelling parameters to predict their effects on linear growth. The Froude number appears to be the critical controlling parameter in the early linear development of ripples, in contrast with the dominant role of particle Reynolds number during the equilibrium stage.

Keywords: Direct numerical simulation, immersed boundary method, sediment-bed interactions, turbulent multiphase flow, linear stability analysis.

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