Search results for: railway risk reduction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2565

Search results for: railway risk reduction

2205 Efficient CNC Milling by Adjusting Material Removal Rate

Authors: Majid Tolouei-Rad

Abstract:

This paper describes a combined mathematicalgraphical approach for optimum tool path planning in order to improve machining efficiency. A methodology has been used that stabilizes machining operations by adjusting material removal rate in pocket milling operations while keeping cutting forces within limits. This increases the life of cutting tool and reduces the risk of tool breakage, machining vibration, and chatter. Case studies reveal the fact that application of this approach could result in a slight increase of machining time, however, a considerable reduction of tooling cost, machining vibration, noise and chatter can be achieved in addition to producing a better surface finish.

Keywords: CNC machines, milling, optimization, removal rate.

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2204 The Role of Heat Pumps for the Decarbonization of European Regions

Authors: D. M. Mongelli, M. De Carli, L. Carnieletto, F. Busato

Abstract:

This research aims to provide a contribution to the reduction of fossil fuels and the consequent reduction of CO2eq emissions for each European region. Simulations have been carried out to replace fossil fuel fired heating boilers with air-to-water heat pumps, when allowed by favorable environmental conditions (outdoor temperature, water temperature in emission systems, etc.). To estimate the potential coverage of high-temperature heat pumps in European regions, the energy profiles of buildings were considered together with the potential coefficient of performance (COP) of heat pumps operating with flow temperature with variable climatic regulation. The electrification potential for heating buildings was estimated by dividing the 38 European countries examined into 179 territorial units. The yields have been calculated in terms of energy savings and CO2eq reduction.

Keywords: Decarbonization, Space heating, Heat pumps, Energy policies.

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2203 Reduction of MMP Using Oleophilic Chemicals

Authors: C. L. Voon, M. Awang

Abstract:

CO2 miscible displacement is not feasible in many oil fields due to high reservoir temperature as higher pressure is required to achieve miscibility. The miscibility pressure is far higher than the formation fracture pressure making it impossible to have CO2 miscible displacement. However, by using oleophilic chemicals, minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) could be lowered. The main objective of this research is to find the best oleophilic chemical in MMP reduction using slim-tube test and Vanishing Interfacial Tension (VIT) The chemicals are selected based on the characteristics that it must be oil soluble, low water solubility, have 4 – 8 carbons, semi polar, economical, and safe for human operation. The families of chemicals chosen are carboxylic acid, alcohol, and ketone. The whole experiment would be conducted at 100°C and the best chemical is said to be effective when it is able to lower CO2-crude oil MMP the most. Findings of this research would have great impact to the oil and gas industry in reduction of operation cost for CO2EOR which is applicable to both onshore and offshore operation.

Keywords: Enhanced Oil Recovery, Oleophilic Chemical, Minimum Miscibility Pressure, CO2 Miscible Displacement.

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2202 Product Ecodesign Approaches in ISO 14001 Certified Companies

Authors: Gregor Radonjič, Aleksandra P. Korda, Damijan Krajnc

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to investigate whether there is the promotion of product ecodesign measures as a result of adopting ISO 14001 certification in manufacturing companies in the Republic of Slovenia. Companies gave the most of their product development attention to waste and energy reduction during manufacturing process and reduction of material consumption per unit of product. Regarding the importance of different ecodesign criteria reduction of material consumption per unit of product was reported as the most important criterion. Less attention is paid to endof- life issues considering recycling or packaging. Most manufacturing enterprises considered ISO 14001 standard as a very useful tool or at least a useful tool helping them to accelerate and establish product ecodesign activities. Two most frequently considered ecodesign drivers are increased competitive advantage and legal requirements and two most important barriers are high development costs and insufficient market demand.

Keywords: ecodesign, environmental management system, ISO 14001, products

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2201 An Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Trading among Enterprises -The Tokyo Cap and Trade Program-

Authors: Hiroki Satou, Kayoko Yamamoto

Abstract:

This study aims to propose three evaluation methods to evaluate the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program when emissions trading is performed virtually among enterprises, focusing on carbon dioxide (CO2), which is the only emitted greenhouse gas that tends to increase. The first method clarifies the optimum reduction rate for the highest cost benefit, the second discusses emissions trading among enterprises through market trading, and the third verifies long-term emissions trading during the term of the plan (2010-2019), checking the validity of emissions trading partly using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The findings of this study can be summarized in the following three points. 1. Since the total cost benefit is the greatest at a 44% reduction rate, it is possible to set it more highly than that of the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program to get more total cost benefit. 2. At a 44% reduction rate, among 320 enterprises, 8 purchasing enterprises and 245 sales enterprises gain profits from emissions trading, and 67 enterprises perform voluntary reduction without conducting emissions trading. Therefore, to further promote emissions trading, it is necessary to increase the sales volumes of emissions trading in addition to sales enterprises by increasing the number of purchasing enterprises. 3. Compared to short-term emissions trading, there are few enterprises which benefit in each year through the long-term emissions trading of the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program. Only 81 enterprises at the most can gain profits from emissions trading in FY 2019. Therefore, by setting the reduction rate more highly, it is necessary to increase the number of enterprises that participate in emissions trading and benefit from the restraint of CO2 emissions.

Keywords: Emissions Trading, Tokyo Cap and Trade Program, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Global Warming, Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

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2200 Adjustment and Scale-Up Strategy of Pilot Liquid Fermentation Process of Azotobacter sp.

Authors: G. Quiroga-Cubides, A. Díaz, M. Gómez

Abstract:

The genus Azotobacter has been widely used as bio-fertilizer due to its significant effects on the stimulation and promotion of plant growth in various agricultural species of commercial interest. In order to obtain significantly viable cellular concentration, a scale-up strategy for a liquid fermentation process (SmF) with two strains of A. chroococcum (named Ac1 and Ac10) was validated and adjusted at laboratory and pilot scale. A batch fermentation process under previously defined conditions was carried out on a biorreactor Infors®, model Minifors of 3.5 L, which served as a baseline for this research. For the purpose of increasing process efficiency, the effect of the reduction of stirring speed was evaluated in combination with a fed-batch-type fermentation laboratory scale. To reproduce the efficiency parameters obtained, a scale-up strategy with geometric and fluid dynamic behavior similarities was evaluated. According to the analysis of variance, this scale-up strategy did not have significant effect on cellular concentration and in laboratory and pilot fermentations (Tukey, p > 0.05). Regarding air consumption, fermentation process at pilot scale showed a reduction of 23% versus the baseline. The percentage of reduction related to energy consumption reduction under laboratory and pilot scale conditions was 96.9% compared with baseline.

Keywords: Azotobacter chroococcum, scale-up, liquid fermentation, fed-batch process.

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2199 The Role and Importance of Genome Sequencing in Prediction of Cancer Risk

Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

Abstract:

The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: Cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors.

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2198 Determining the Maximum Lateral Displacement Due to Sever Earthquakes without Using Nonlinear Analysis

Authors: Mussa Mahmoudi

Abstract:

For Seismic design, it is important to estimate, maximum lateral displacement (inelastic displacement) of the structures due to sever earthquakes for several reasons. Seismic design provisions estimate the maximum roof and storey drifts occurring in major earthquakes by amplifying the drifts of the structures obtained by elastic analysis subjected to seismic design load, with a coefficient named “displacement amplification factor" which is greater than one. Here, this coefficient depends on various parameters, such as ductility and overstrength factors. The present research aims to evaluate the value of the displacement amplification factor in seismic design codes and then tries to propose a value to estimate the maximum lateral structural displacement from sever earthquakes, without using non-linear analysis. In seismic codes, since the displacement amplification is related to “force reduction factor" hence; this aspect has been accepted in the current study. Meanwhile, two methodologies are applied to evaluate the value of displacement amplification factor and its relation with the force reduction factor. In the first methodology, which is applied for all structures, the ratio of displacement amplification and force reduction factors is determined directly. Whereas, in the second methodology that is applicable just for R/C moment resisting frame, the ratio is obtained by calculating both factors, separately. The acquired results of these methodologies are alike and estimate the ratio of two factors from 1 to 1.2. The results indicate that the ratio of the displacement amplification factor and the force reduction factor differs to those proposed by seismic provisions such as NEHRP, IBC and Iranian seismic code (standard no. 2800).

Keywords: Displacement amplification factor, Ductility factor, Force reduction factor, Maximum lateral displacement.

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2197 The Role of Home Composting in Waste Management Cost Reduction

Authors: Nahid Hassanshahi, Ayoub Karimi-Jashni, Nasser Talebbeydokhti

Abstract:

Due to the economic and environmental benefits of producing less waste, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduces source reduction as one of the most important means to deal with the problems caused by increased landfills and pollution. Waste reduction involves all waste management methods, including source reduction, recycling, and composting, which reduce waste flow to landfills or other disposal facilities. Source reduction of waste can be studied from two perspectives: avoiding waste production, or reducing per capita waste production, and waste deviation that indicates the reduction of waste transfer to landfills. The present paper has investigated home composting as a managerial solution for reduction of waste transfer to landfills. Home composting has many benefits. The use of household waste for the production of compost will result in a much smaller amount of waste being sent to landfills, which in turn will reduce the costs of waste collection, transportation and burial. Reducing the volume of waste for disposal and using them for the production of compost and plant fertilizer might help to recycle the material in a shorter time and to use them effectively in order to preserve the environment and reduce contamination. Producing compost in a home-based manner requires very small piece of land for preparation and recycling compared with other methods. The final product of home-made compost is valuable and helps to grow crops and garden plants. It is also used for modifying the soil structure and maintaining its moisture. The food that is transferred to landfills will spoil and produce leachate after a while. It will also release methane and greenhouse gases. But, composting these materials at home is the best way to manage degradable materials, use them efficiently and reduce environmental pollution. Studies have shown that the benefits of the sale of produced compost and the reduced costs of collecting, transporting, and burying waste can well be responsive to the costs of purchasing home compost machine and the cost of related trainings. Moreover, the process of producing home compost may be profitable within 4 to 5 years and as a result, it will have a major role in reducing waste management.

Keywords: Compost, home compost, reducing waste, waste management.

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2196 Controller Design of Discrete Systems by Order Reduction Technique Employing Differential Evolution Optimization Algorithm

Authors: J. S. Yadav, N. P. Patidar, J. Singhai

Abstract:

One of the main objectives of order reduction is to design a controller of lower order which can effectively control the original high order system so that the overall system is of lower order and easy to understand. In this paper, a simple method is presented for controller design of a higher order discrete system. First the original higher order discrete system in reduced to a lower order model. Then a Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) controller is designed for lower order model. An error minimization technique is employed for both order reduction and controller design. For the error minimization purpose, Differential Evolution (DE) optimization algorithm has been employed. DE method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the desired response and actual response pertaining to a unit step input. Finally the designed PID controller is connected to the original higher order discrete system to get the desired specification. The validity of the proposed method is illustrated through a numerical example.

Keywords: Discrete System, Model Order Reduction, PIDController, Integral Squared Error, Differential Evolution.

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2195 Preparation and Characterization of Photocatalyst for the Conversion of Carbon Dioxide to Methanol

Authors: D. M. Reddy Prasad, Nur Sabrina Binti Rahmat, Huei Ruey Ong, Chin Kui Cheng, Maksudur Rahman Khan, D. Sathiyamoorthy

Abstract:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission to the environment is inevitable which is responsible for global warming. Photocatalytic reduction of CO2 to fuel, such as methanol, methane etc. is a promising way to reduce greenhouse gas CO2 emission. In the present work, Bi2S3/CdS was synthesized as an effective visible light responsive photocatalyst for CO2 reduction into methanol. The Bi2S3/CdS photocatalyst was prepared by hydrothermal reaction. The catalyst was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) instrument. The photocatalytic activity of the catalyst has been investigated for methanol production as a function of time. Gas chromatograph flame ionization detector (GC-FID) was employed to analyze the product. The yield of methanol was found to increase with higher CdS concentration in Bi2S3/CdS and the maximum yield was obtained for 45 wt% of Bi2S3/CdS under visible light irradiation was 20 μmole/g. The result establishes that Bi2S3/CdS is favorable catalyst to reduce CO2 to methanol.

Keywords: Photocatalyst, Carbon dioxide reduction, visible light, Irradiation.

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2194 Meteorological Risk Assessment for Ships with Fuzzy Logic Designer

Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

Abstract:

Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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2193 Reduction of Leakage Power in Digital Logic Circuits Using Stacking Technique in 45 Nanometer Regime

Authors: P.K. Sharma, B. Bhargava, S. Akashe

Abstract:

Power dissipation due to leakage current in the digital circuits is a biggest factor which is considered specially while designing nanoscale circuits. This paper is exploring the ideas of reducing leakage current in static CMOS circuits by stacking the transistors in increasing numbers. Clearly it means that the stacking of OFF transistors in large numbers result a significant reduction in power dissipation. Increase in source voltage of NMOS transistor minimizes the leakage current. Thus stacking technique makes circuit with minimum power dissipation losses due to leakage current. Also some of digital circuits such as full adder, D flip flop and 6T SRAM have been simulated in this paper, with the application of reduction technique on ‘cadence virtuoso tool’ using specter at 45nm technology with supply voltage 0.7V.

Keywords: Stack, 6T SRAM cell, low power, threshold voltage

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2192 Time Series Simulation by Conditional Generative Adversarial Net

Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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2191 Studies on Properties of Knowledge Dependency and Reduction Algorithm in Tolerance Rough Set Model

Authors: Chen Wu, Lijuan Wang

Abstract:

Relation between tolerance class and indispensable attribute and knowledge dependency in rough set model with tolerance relation is explored. After giving definitions and concepts of knowledge dependency and knowledge dependency degree for incomplete information system in tolerance rough set model by distinguishing decision attribute containing missing attribute value or not, the result of maintaining reflectivity, transitivity, augmentation, decomposition law and merge law for complete knowledge dependency is proved. Knowledge dependency degrees (not complete knowledge dependency degrees) only satisfy some laws after transitivity, augmentation and decomposition operations. An algorithm to solve attribute reduction in an incomplete decision table is designed. The correctness is checked by an example.

Keywords: Incomplete information system, rough set, tolerance relation, knowledge dependence, attribute reduction.

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2190 Evaluation of Chromium Contamination in the Sediments of Jen-Gen River Mouth, Taiwan

Authors: Chiu-Wen Chen, Chih-Feng Chen, Cheng-Di Dong

Abstract:

This study was conducted using the data collected at the mouth of Jen-Gen River to investigate and analyze chromium (Cr) contained in the sediments, and to evaluate the accumulation of Cr and the degree of its potential risk. The results show that samples collected at all monitoring stations near the mouth of Jen-Gen River contain 92–567 mg/kg of Cr with average of 366±166 mg/kg. The spatial distribution of Cr reveals that the Cr concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor region. This indicates that upstream industrial and municipal wastewater discharges along the river bank are major sources of pollution. The accumulation factor and potential ecological risk index indicate that the sedimentation at Jen-Gen River mouth has the most serious degree of Cr accumulation and the highest ecological potential risk.

Keywords: chromium, sediment, river mouth, enrichment factor

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2189 Particle Swarm Optimization with Reduction for Global Optimization Problems

Authors: Michiharu Maeda, Shinya Tsuda

Abstract:

This paper presents an algorithm of particle swarm optimization with reduction for global optimization problems. Particle swarm optimization is an algorithm which refers to the collective motion such as birds or fishes, and a multi-point search algorithm which finds a best solution using multiple particles. Particle swarm optimization is so flexible that it can adapt to a number of optimization problems. When an objective function has a lot of local minimums complicatedly, the particle may fall into a local minimum. For avoiding the local minimum, a number of particles are initially prepared and their positions are updated by particle swarm optimization. Particles sequentially reduce to reach a predetermined number of them grounded in evaluation value and particle swarm optimization continues until the termination condition is met. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, we examine the minimum by using test functions compared to existing algorithms. Furthermore the influence of best value on the initial number of particles for our algorithm is discussed.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, Global optimization, Metaheuristics, Reduction.

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2188 The Robust Clustering with Reduction Dimension

Authors: Dyah E. Herwindiati

Abstract:

A clustering is process to identify a homogeneous groups of object called as cluster. Clustering is one interesting topic on data mining. A group or class behaves similarly characteristics. This paper discusses a robust clustering process for data images with two reduction dimension approaches; i.e. the two dimensional principal component analysis (2DPCA) and principal component analysis (PCA). A standard approach to overcome this problem is dimension reduction, which transforms a high-dimensional data into a lower-dimensional space with limited loss of information. One of the most common forms of dimensionality reduction is the principal components analysis (PCA). The 2DPCA is often called a variant of principal component (PCA), the image matrices were directly treated as 2D matrices; they do not need to be transformed into a vector so that the covariance matrix of image can be constructed directly using the original image matrices. The decomposed classical covariance matrix is very sensitive to outlying observations. The objective of paper is to compare the performance of robust minimizing vector variance (MVV) in the two dimensional projection PCA (2DPCA) and the PCA for clustering on an arbitrary data image when outliers are hiden in the data set. The simulation aspects of robustness and the illustration of clustering images are discussed in the end of paper

Keywords: Breakdown point, Consistency, 2DPCA, PCA, Outlier, Vector Variance

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2187 Prioritization Assessment of Housing Development Risk Factors: A Fuzzy Hierarchical Process-Based Approach

Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

Abstract:

The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: Risk identification, risk assessment, analytical hierarchical process, multi-criteria decision.

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2186 The Gerber-Shiu Functions of a Risk Model with Two Classes of Claims and Random Income

Authors: Shan Gao

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a risk model involving two independent classes of insurance risks and random premium income. We assume that the premium income process is a Poisson Process, and the claim number processes are independent Poisson and generalized Erlang(n) processes, respectively. Both of the Gerber- Shiu functions with zero initial surplus and the probability generating functions (p.g.f.) of the Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained.

Keywords: Poisson process, generalized Erlang risk process, Gerber-Shiu function, generating function, generalized Lundberg equation.

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2185 The Effects of the Parent Training Program for Obesity Reduction on Health Behaviors of School-Age Children

Authors: Muntanavadee Maytapattana

Abstract:

The purposes of the study were to evaluate the effectiveness of the Parent Training Program for Obesity Reduction (PTPOR) on health behaviors of school-age children. An Ecological Systems Theory (EST) was approached the study and a randomized control trial was used in this study. Participants were school-age overweight or obese children and their parents. One hundred and one parent-child dyads were recruited and random assigned into the PTPOR (N=30), Educational Intervention or EI (N=32), and control group (N=39). The parents in the PTPOR group participated in five sessions including an educational session, a cooking session, aerobic exercise training, 2-time group discussion sessions, and 4-time telephoned counseling sessions. Repeated Measure ANCOVA was used to analyze data. The results presented that the outcomes of the PTPOR group were better than the EI and the control groups at 1st, 8th, and 32nd weeks after finishing the program such as child exercise behavior (F(2,97) = 3.98, p = .02) and child dietary behavior (F(2,97) = 9.42, p = .00). The results suggest that nurses and health care providers should utilize the PTPOR for child weight reduction and for the health promotion of a lifestyle among overweight and obese children.

Keywords: Parent training program for obesity reduction, child health behaviors, school-age children.

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2184 The Risk and Value Engineering Structures and their Integration with Industrial Projects Management (A Case Study on I. K.Corporation)

Authors: Lida Haghnegahdar, Ezzatollah Asgharizadeh

Abstract:

Value engineering is an efficacious contraption for administrators to make up their minds. Value perusals proffer the gaffers a suitable instrument to decrease the expenditures of the life span, quality amelioration, structural improvement, curtailment of the construction schedule, longevity prolongation or a merging of the aforementioned cases. Subjecting organizers to pressures on one hand and their accountability towards their pertinent fields together with inherent risks and ambiguities of other options on the other hand set some comptrollers in a dilemma utilization of risk management and the value engineering in projects manipulation with regard to complexities of implementing projects can be wielded as a contraption to identify and efface each item which wreaks unnecessary expenses and time squandering sans inflicting any damages upon the essential project applications. Of course It should be noted that implementation of risk management and value engineering with regard to the betterment of efficiency and functions may lead to the project implementation timing elongation. Here time revamping does not refer to time diminishing in the whole cases. his article deals with risk and value engineering conceptualizations at first. The germane reverberations effectuated due to its execution in Iran Khodro Corporation are regarded together with the joint features and amalgamation of the aforesaid entia; hence the proposed blueprint is submitted to be taken advantage of in engineering and industrial projects including Iran Khodro Corporation.

Keywords: Management, risk engineering, value engineering, project manipulation, Iran Khodro.

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2183 Operational Risk – Scenario Analysis

Authors: Milan Rippel, Petr Teply

Abstract:

This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.

Keywords: operational risk, scenario analysis, economic capital, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, stress testing

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2182 One-Pot Facile Synthesis of N-Doped Graphene Synthesized from Paraphenylenediamine as Metal-Free Catalysts for the Oxygen Reduction Used for Alkaline Fuel Cells

Authors: Leila Samiee, Amir Yadegari, Saeedeh Tasharrofi

Abstract:

In the work presented here, nitrogen-doped graphene materials were synthesized and used as metal-free electrocatalysts for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) under alkaline conditions. Paraphenylenediamine was used as N precursor. The N-doped graphene was synthesized under hydrothermal treatment at 200°C. All the materials have been characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and X-ray photo-electron spectroscopy (XPS). Moreover, for electrochemical evaluation of samples, Rotating Disk electrode (RDE) and Cyclic Voltammetry techniques (CV) were employed. The resulting material exhibits an outstanding catalytic activity for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) as well as excellent resistance towards methanol crossover effects, indicating their promising potential as ORR electrocatalysts for alkaline fuel cells.

Keywords: Alkaline fuel cell, graphene, metal-free catalyst, paraphenylenediamine.

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2181 Modelling Sudden Deaths from Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

Authors: Yusoff Y. S., Streftaris, G., Waters, H. R

Abstract:

Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a generalized linear model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: Sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease.

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2180 Designing an Optimal Safe Layout for a Fuel Storage Tanks Farm: Case Study of Jaipur Oil Depot

Authors: Moosa Haji Abbasi, Emad Benhelal, Arshad Ahmad

Abstract:

Storage tank farms are essential industrial facilities to accumulate oil, petrochemicals and gaseous products. Since tank farms contain huge mass of fuel and hazardous materials, they are always targets of serious accidents such as fire, explosion, spill and toxic release which may cause severe impacts on human health, environmental and properties.

Although having a safe layout is not able to prevent initiating accidents, however it effectively controls and reduces the adverse impact of such accidents.

The aim of this paper is to determine the optimal layout for a storage tank contains different type of hydrocarbon fuels. A quantitative risk assessment is carried out on a selected tank farm in Jaipur, India, with particular attention given to both the consequence modeling and the overall risk assessment using PHAST Software. Various designs of tank layouts are examined taking into consideration several issues of plant operations and maintenance. In all stages of the work, standard guidelines specified by the industry are considered and recommendations are substantiated with simulation results and risk quantification.

Keywords: Tank farm, safe distance, safe layout, risk assessment, PHAST.

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2179 Numerical Investigation of the Evaporation and Mixing of UWS in a Diesel Exhaust Pipe

Authors: Tae Hyun Ahn, Gyo Woo Lee, Man Young Kim

Abstract:

Because of high thermal efficiency and low CO2 emission, diesel engines are being used widely in many industrial fields although it makes many PM and NOx which give both human health and environment a negative effect. NOx regulations for diesel engines, however, are being strengthened and it is impossible to meet the emission standard without NOx reduction devices such as SCR (Selective Catalytic Reduction), LNC (Lean NOx Catalyst), and LNT (Lean NOx Trap). Among the NOx reduction devices, urea-SCR system is known as the most stable and efficient method to solve the problem of NOx emission. But this device has some issues associated with the ammonia slip phenomenon which is occurred by shortage of evaporation and thermolysis time, and that makes it difficult to achieve uniform distribution of the injected urea in front of monolith. Therefore, this study has focused on the mixing enhancement between urea and exhaust gases to enhance the efficiency of the SCR catalyst equipped in catalytic muffler by changing inlet gas temperature and spray conditions to improve the spray uniformity of the urea water solution. Finally, it can be found that various parameters such as inlet gas temperature and injector and injection angles significantly affect the evaporation and mixing of the urea water solution with exhaust gases, and therefore, optimization of these parameters are required.

Keywords: Evaporation, Injection, Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR), Thermolysis, UWS (Urea-Water-Solution).

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2178 Stability Bound of Ruin Probability in a Reduced Two-Dimensional Risk Model

Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

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2177 The Links between Cardiovascular Risk and Psychological Wellbeing in Elderly

Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute

Abstract:

The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.

Keywords: Psychological wellbeing, cardiovascular disease, elderly.

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2176 A High-Speed Multiplication Algorithm Using Modified Partial Product Reduction Tree

Authors: P. Asadee

Abstract:

Multiplication algorithms have considerable effect on processors performance. A new high-speed, low-power multiplication algorithm has been presented using modified Dadda tree structure. Three important modifications have been implemented in inner product generation step, inner product reduction step and final addition step. Optimized algorithms have to be used into basic computation components, such as multiplication algorithms. In this paper, we proposed a new algorithm to reduce power, delay, and transistor count of a multiplication algorithm implemented using low power modified counter. This work presents a novel design for Dadda multiplication algorithms. The proposed multiplication algorithm includes structured parts, which have important effect on inner product reduction tree. In this paper, a 1.3V, 64-bit carry hybrid adder is presented for fast, low voltage applications. The new 64-bit adder uses a new circuit to implement the proposed carry hybrid adder. The new adder using 80 nm CMOS technology has been implemented on 700 MHz clock frequency. The proposed multiplication algorithm has achieved 14 percent improvement in transistor count, 13 percent reduction in delay and 12 percent modification in power consumption in compared with conventional designs.

Keywords: adder, CMOS, counter, Dadda tree, encoder.

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