Search results for: Generalized extreme value (GEV)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 583

Search results for: Generalized extreme value (GEV)

223 Centralized Cooperative Spectrum Sensing with MIMO in the Reporting Network over κ − μ Fading Channel

Authors: S Hariharan, K Chaitanya, P Muthuchidambaranathan

Abstract:

The IEEE 802.22 working group aims to drive the Digital Video Broadcasting-Terrestrial (DVB-T) bands for data communication to the rural area without interfering the TV broadcast. In this paper, we arrive at a closed-form expression for average detection probability of Fusion center (FC) with multiple antenna over the κ − μ fading channel model. We consider a centralized cooperative multiple antenna network for reporting. The DVB-T samples forwarded by the secondary user (SU) were combined using Maximum ratio combiner at FC, an energy detection is performed to make the decision. The fading effects of the channel degrades the detection probability of the FC, a generalized independent and identically distributed (IID) κ − μ and an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel is considered for reporting and sensing respectively. The proposed system performance is verified through simulation results.

Keywords: IEEE 802.22, Cooperative spectrum sensing, Multiple antenna, κ − μ .

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222 Enhanced Performance of Fading Dispersive Channel Using Dynamic Frequency Hopping(DFH)

Authors: Walid M. Saad

Abstract:

techniques are examined to overcome the performance degradation caused by the channel dispersion using slow frequency hopping (SFH) with dynamic frequency hopping (DFH) pattern adaptation. In DFH systems, the frequency slots are selected by continuous quality monitoring of all frequencies available in a system and modification of hopping patterns for each individual link based on replacing slots which its signal to interference ratio (SIR) measurement is below a required threshold. Simulation results will show the improvements in BER obtained by DFH in comparison with matched frequency hopping (MFH), random frequency hopping (RFH) and multi-carrier code division multiple access (MC-CDMA) in multipath slowly fading dispersive channels using a generalized bandpass two-path transfer function model, and will show the improvement obtained according to the threshold selection.

Keywords: code division multiple access (CDMA), dynamic channel allocation (DCA), dynamic channel assignment, frequency hopping, matched frequency hopping (MFH).

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221 Numerical Computation of Sturm-Liouville Problem with Robin Boundary Condition

Authors: Theddeus T. Akano, Omotayo A. Fakinlede

Abstract:

The modelling of physical phenomena, such as the earth’s free oscillations, the vibration of strings, the interaction of atomic particles, or the steady state flow in a bar give rise to Sturm- Liouville (SL) eigenvalue problems. The boundary applications of some systems like the convection-diffusion equation, electromagnetic and heat transfer problems requires the combination of Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. Hence, the incorporation of Robin boundary condition in the analyses of Sturm-Liouville problem. This paper deals with the computation of the eigenvalues and eigenfunction of generalized Sturm-Liouville problems with Robin boundary condition using the finite element method. Numerical solution of classical Sturm–Liouville problem is presented. The results show an agreement with the exact solution. High results precision is achieved with higher number of elements.

Keywords: Sturm-Liouville problem, Robin boundary condition, finite element method, eigenvalue problems.

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220 Quantum Statistical Mechanical Formulations of Three-Body Problems via Non-Local Potentials

Authors: A. Maghari, V. H. Maleki

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a quantum statistical mechanical formulation from our recently analytical expressions for partial-wave transition matrix of a three-particle system. We report the quantum reactive cross sections for three-body scattering processes 1+(2,3)→1+(2,3) as well as recombination 1+(2,3)→1+(3,1) between one atom and a weakly-bound dimer. The analytical expressions of three-particle transition matrices and their corresponding cross-sections were obtained from the threedimensional Faddeev equations subjected to the rank-two non-local separable potentials of the generalized Yamaguchi form. The equilibrium quantum statistical mechanical properties such partition function and equation of state as well as non-equilibrium quantum statistical properties such as transport cross-sections and their corresponding transport collision integrals were formulated analytically. This leads to obtain the transport properties, such as viscosity and diffusion coefficient of a moderate dense gas.

Keywords: Statistical mechanics, Nonlocal separable potential, three-body interaction, Faddeev equations.

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219 Evolved Disease Avoidance Mechanisms, Generalized Prejudice, Modern Attitudes towards Individuals with Intellectual Disability

Authors: Campbell Townsend, David Hamilton

Abstract:

Previous research has demonstrated that negative attitudes towards people with physical disabilities and obesity are predicted by a component of perceived vulnerability to disease; germ aversion. These findings have been suggested as illustrations of an evolved but over-active mechanism which promotes the avoidance of pathogen-carrying individuals. To date, this interpretation of attitude formation has not been explored with regard to people with intellectual disability, and no attempts have been made to examine possible mediating factors. This study examined attitudes in 333 adults and demonstrated that the moderate positive relationship between germ aversion and negative attitudes toward people with intellectual disability is fully mediated by social dominance orientation, a general preference for hierarchies and inequalities among social groups. These findings have implications for the design of programs which attempt to promote community acceptance and inclusion of people with disabilities.

Keywords: avoidance, evolutionary psychology, intellectual disability, prejudice

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218 Derivation of Fractional Black-Scholes Equations Driven by Fractional G-Brownian Motion and Their Application in European Option Pricing

Authors: Changhong Guo, Shaomei Fang, Yong He

Abstract:

In this paper, fractional Black-Scholes models for the European option pricing were established based on the fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm), which generalizes the concepts of the classical Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion and the G-Brownian motion, and that can be used to be a tool for considering the long range dependence and uncertain volatility for the financial markets simultaneously. A generalized fractional Black-Scholes equation (FBSE) was derived by using the Taylor’s series of fractional order and the theory of absence of arbitrage. Finally, some explicit option pricing formulas for the European call option and put option under the FBSE were also solved, which extended the classical option pricing formulas given by F. Black and M. Scholes.

Keywords: European option pricing, fractional Black-Scholes equations, fractional G-Brownian motion, Taylor’s series of fractional order, uncertain volatility.

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217 Correlation to Predict the Effect of Particle Type on Axial Voidage Profile in Circulating Fluidized Beds

Authors: M. S. Khurram, S. A. Memon, S. Khan

Abstract:

Bed voidage behavior among different flow regimes for Geldart A, B, and D particles (fluid catalytic cracking catalyst (FCC), particle A and glass beads) of diameter range 57-872 μm, apparent density 1470-3092 kg/m3, and bulk density range 890-1773 kg/m3 were investigated in a gas-solid circulating fluidized bed of 0.1 m-i.d. and 2.56 m-height of plexi-glass. Effects of variables (gas velocity, particle properties, and static bed height) were analyzed on bed voidage. The axial voidage profile showed a typical trend along the riser: a dense bed at the lower part followed by a transition in the splash zone and a lean phase in the freeboard. Bed expansion and dense bed voidage increased with an increase of gas velocity as usual. From experimental results, a generalized model relationship based on inverse fluidization number for dense bed voidage from bubbling to fast fluidization regimes was presented.

Keywords: Axial voidage, circulating fluidized bed, splash zone, static bed.

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216 Effects of Market Share and Diversification on Nonlife Insurers- Performance

Authors: M. Pervan, T. Pavic Kramaric

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of market share and diversification on the nonlife insurers- performance. The underlying relationships have been investigated in different industries and different disciplines (economics, management...), still, no consistency exists either in the magnitude or statistical significance of the relationship between market share (and diversification as well) on one side and companies- performance on the other side. Moreover, the direction of the relationship is also somewhat questionable. While some authors find this relationship to be positive, the others reveal its negative association. In order to test the influence of market share and diversification on companies- performance in Croatian nonlife insurance industry for the period from 1999 to 2009, we designed an empirical model in which we included the following independent variables: firms- profitability from previous years, market share, diversification and control variables (i.e. ownership, industrial concentration, GDP per capita, inflation). Using the two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator we found evidence of a positive and statistically significant influence of both, market share and diversification, on insurers- profitability.

Keywords: Diversification, market share, nonlife insurance

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215 Model Updating-Based Approach for Damage Prognosis in Frames via Modal Residual Force

Authors: Gholamreza Ghodrati Amiri, Mojtaba Jafarian Abyaneh, Ali Zare Hosseinzadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents an effective model updating strategy for damage localization and quantification in frames by defining damage detection problem as an optimization issue. A generalized version of the Modal Residual Force (MRF) is employed for presenting a new damage-sensitive cost function. Then, Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm is utilized for solving suggested inverse problem and the global extremums are reported as damage detection results. The applicability of the presented method is investigated by studying different damage patterns on the benchmark problem of the IASC-ASCE, as well as a planar shear frame structure. The obtained results emphasize good performance of the method not only in free-noise cases, but also when the input data are contaminated with different levels of noises.

Keywords: Frame, grey wolf optimization algorithm, modal residual force, structural damage detection.

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214 An EEG Case Study of Arithmetical Reasoning by Four Individuals Varying in Imagery and Mathematical Ability: Implications for Mathematics Education

Authors: Mark Rousell, Di Catherwood, Graham Edgar

Abstract:

The main issue of interest here is whether individuals who differ in arithmetical reasoning ability and levels of imagery ability display different brain activity during the conduct of mental arithmetical reasoning tasks. This was a case study of four participants who represented four extreme combinations of Maths –Imagery abilities: ie., low-low, high-high, high-low, low-high respectively. As the Ps performed a series of 60 arithmetical reasoning tasks, 128-channel EEG recordings were taken and the pre-response interval subsequently analysed using EGI GeosourceTM software. The P who was high in both imagery and maths ability showed peak activity prior to response in BA7 (superior parietal cortex) but other Ps did not show peak activity in this region. The results are considered in terms of the diverse routes that may be employed by individuals during the conduct of arithmetical reasoning tasks and the possible implications of this for mathematics education.

Keywords: Arithmetic, imagery, EEG, education.

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213 Biaxial Buckling of Single Layer Graphene Sheet Based on Nonlocal Plate Model and Molecular Dynamics Simulation

Authors: R. Pilafkan, M. Kaffash Irzarahimi, S. F. Asbaghian Namin

Abstract:

The biaxial buckling behavior of single-layered graphene sheets (SLGSs) is studied in the present work. To consider the size-effects in the analysis, Eringen’s nonlocal elasticity equations are incorporated into classical plate theory (CLPT). A Generalized Differential Quadrature Method (GDQM) approach is utilized and numerical solutions for the critical buckling loads are obtained. Then, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are performed for a series of zigzag SLGSs with different side-lengths and with various boundary conditions, the results of which are matched with those obtained by the nonlocal plate model to numerical the appropriate values of nonlocal parameter relevant to each type of boundary conditions.

Keywords: Biaxial buckling, single-layered graphene sheets, nonlocal elasticity, molecular dynamics simulation, classical plate theory.

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212 Competitor Analysis to Quantify the Benefits and for Different Use of Transport Infrastructure

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

Abstract:

Different transportation modes have key operational advantages and disadvantages, providing a variety of different transport options to users and passengers. This paper reviews key variables for the competition between air transport and other transport modes. The aim of this paper is to review the competition between air transport and other transport modes, providing results in terms of perceived cost for the users, for destinations high competitiveness for all transport modes. The competitor analysis variables include the cost and time outputs for each transport option, highlighting the level of competitiveness on high demanded Origin-Destination corridors. The case study presents the output of a such analysis for the OD corridor in Greece that connects the Capital city (Athens) with the second largest city (Thessaloniki) and the different transport modes have been considered (air, train, road). Conventional wisdom is to present an easy to handle tool for planners, managers and decision makers towards pricing policy effectiveness and demand attractiveness, appropriate to use for other similar cases.

Keywords: Competitor analysis, generalized cost, transport economics, quantitative modelling.

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211 Modulation Identification Algorithm for Adaptive Demodulator in Software Defined Radios Using Wavelet Transform

Authors: P. Prakasam, M. Madheswaran

Abstract:

A generalized Digital Modulation Identification algorithm for adaptive demodulator has been developed and presented in this paper. The algorithm developed is verified using wavelet Transform and histogram computation to identify QPSK and QAM with GMSK and M–ary FSK modulations. It has been found that the histogram peaks simplifies the procedure for identification. The simulated results show that the correct modulation identification is possible to a lower bound of 5 dB and 12 dB for GMSK and QPSK respectively. When SNR is above 5 dB the throughput of the proposed algorithm is more than 97.8%. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) has been computed to measure the performance of the proposed algorithm and the analysis shows that the probability of detection (Pd) drops rapidly when SNR is 5 dB and probability of false alarm (Pf) is smaller than 0.3. The performance of the proposed algorithm has been compared with existing methods and found it will identify all digital modulation schemes with low SNR.

Keywords: Bit Error rate, Receiver Operating Characteristics, Software Defined Radio, Wavelet Transform.

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210 Estimating Correlation Dimension on Japanese Candlestick, Application to FOREX Time Series

Authors: S. Mahmoodzadeh, J. Shahrabi, M. A. Torkamani, J. Sabaghzadeh Ghomi

Abstract:

Recognizing behavioral patterns of financial markets is essential for traders. Japanese candlestick chart is a common tool to visualize and analyze such patterns in an economic time series. Since the world was introduced to Japanese candlestick charting, traders saw how combining this tool with intelligent technical approaches creates a powerful formula for the savvy investors. This paper propose a generalization to box counting method of Grassberger-Procaccia, which is based on computing the correlation dimension of Japanese candlesticks instead commonly used 'close' points. The results of this method applied on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial). Satisfactorily show lower chaotic dimension of Japanese candlesticks series than regular Grassberger-Procaccia method applied merely on close points of these same candles. This means there is some valuable information inside candlesticks.

Keywords: Chaos, Japanese candlestick, generalized box counting, strange attractor.

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209 Effects of Mold Surface Roughness on Compressible Flow of Micro-Injection Molding

Authors: Nguyen Q. M. P., Chen X., Lam Y. C., Yue C. Y.

Abstract:

Polymer melt compressibility and mold surface roughness, which are generally ignored during the filling stage of the conventional injection molding, may become increasingly significant in micro injection molding where the parts become smaller. By employing the 2.5D generalized Hele-Shaw model, we presented here the effects of polymer compressibility and mold surface roughness on mold-filling in a micro-thickness cavity. To elucidate the effects of surface roughness, numerical investigations were conducted using a cavity flat plate which has two halves with different surface roughness. This allows the comparison of flow field on two different halves under identical processing conditions but with different roughness. Results show that polymer compressibility and mold surface roughness have effects on mold filling in micro injection molding. There is in shrinkage reduction as the density is increased due to polymer melt compressibility during the filling stage.

Keywords: Compressible flow, Micro-injection molding, Polymer, Surface roughness

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208 A Semi-Implicit Phase Field Model for Droplet Evolution

Authors: M. H. Kazemi, D. Salac

Abstract:

A semi-implicit phase field method for droplet evolution is proposed. Using the phase field Cahn-Hilliard equation, we are able to track the interface in multiphase flow. The idea of a semi-implicit finite difference scheme is reviewed and employed to solve two nonlinear equations, including the Navier-Stokes and the Cahn-Hilliard equations. The use of a semi-implicit method allows us to have larger time steps compared to explicit schemes. The governing equations are coupled and then solved by a GMRES solver (generalized minimal residual method) using modified Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization. To show the validity of the method, we apply the method to the simulation of a rising droplet, a leaky dielectric drop and the coalescence of drops. The numerical solutions to the phase field model match well with existing solutions over a defined range of variables.

Keywords: Coalescence, leaky dielectric, numerical method, phase field, rising droplet, semi-implicit method.

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207 Noise Performance of Millimeter-wave Silicon Based Mixed Tunneling Avalanche Transit Time(MITATT) Diode

Authors: Aritra Acharyya, Moumita Mukherjee, J. P. Banerjee

Abstract:

A generalized method for small-signal simulation of avalanche noise in Mixed Tunneling Avalanche Transit Time (MITATT) device is presented in this paper where the effect of series resistance is taken into account. The method is applied to a millimeter-wave Double Drift Region (DDR) MITATT device based on Silicon to obtain noise spectral density and noise measure as a function of frequency for different values of series resistance. It is found that noise measure of the device at the operating frequency (122 GHz) with input power density of 1010 Watt/m2 is about 35 dB for hypothetical parasitic series resistance of zero ohm (estimated junction temperature = 500 K). Results show that the noise measure increases as the value of parasitic resistance increases.

Keywords: Noise Analysis, Silicon MITATT, Admittancecharacteristics, Noise spectral density.

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206 Implementation of SU-MIMO and MU-MIMOGTD-System under Imperfect CSI Knowledge

Authors: Parit Kanjanavirojkul, Kiatwarakorn Keeratishananond, Prapun Suksompong

Abstract:

We study the performance of compressed beamforming weights feedback technique in generalized triangular decomposition (GTD) based MIMO system. GTD is a beamforming technique that enjoys QoS flexibility. The technique, however, will perform at its optimum only when the full knowledge of channel state information (CSI) is available at the transmitter. This would be impossible in the real system, where there are channel estimation error and limited feedback. We suggest a way to implement the quantized beamforming weights feedback, which can significantly reduce the feedback data, on GTD-based MIMO system and investigate the performance of the system. Interestingly, we found that compressed beamforming weights feedback does not degrade the BER performance of the system at low input power, while the channel estimation error and quantization do. For comparison, GTD is more sensitive to compression and quantization, while SVD is more sensitive to the channel estimation error. We also explore the performance of GTDbased MU-MIMO system, and find that the BER performance starts to degrade largely at around -20 dB channel estimation error.

Keywords: MIMO, MU-MIMO, GTD, Imperfect CSI.

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205 Consolidating Service Engineering Ontologies Building Service Ontology from SOA Modeling Language (SoaML)

Authors: Purnomo Yustianto, Robin Doss, Suhardi, Novianto Budi Kurniawan

Abstract:

As a term for characterizing a process of devising a service system, the term ‘service engineering’ is still regarded as an ‘open’ research challenge due to unspecified details and conflicting perspectives. This paper presents consolidated service engineering ontologies in collecting, specifying and defining relationship between components pertinent within the context of service engineering. The ontologies are built by way of literature surveys from the collected conceptual works by collating various concepts into an integrated ontology. Two ontologies are produced: general service ontology and software service ontology. The software-service ontology is drawn from the informatics domain, while the generalized ontology of a service system is built from both a business management and the information system perspective. The produced ontologies are verified by exercising conceptual operationalizations of the ontologies in adopting several service orientation features and service system patterns. The proposed ontologies are demonstrated to be sufficient to serve as a basis for a service engineering framework.

Keywords: Engineering, ontology, service, SoaML.

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204 Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Mapping of Malaria in Thailand

Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

Abstract:

This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation.

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203 Motion Planning and Control of a Swarm of Boids in a 3-Dimensional Space

Authors: Bibhya Sharma, Jito Vanualailai, Jai Raj

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a solution to the motion planning and control problem for a swarm of three-dimensional boids. The swarm exhibit collective emergent behaviors within the vicinity of the workspace. The capability of biological systems to autonomously maneuver, track and pursue evasive targets in a cluttered environment is vastly superior to any engineered system. It is considered an emergent behavior arising from simple rules that are followed by individuals and may not involve any central coordination. A generalized, yet scalable algorithm for attraction to the centroid and inter-individual swarm avoidance is proposed. We present a set of new continuous time-invariant velocity control laws, formulated via the Lyapunov-based control scheme for target attraction and collision avoidance. The controllers provide a collision-free trajectory. The control laws proposed in this paper also ensures practical stability of the system. The effectiveness of the control laws is demonstrated via computer simulations.

Keywords: Swarm, Practical stability, Motion planning.

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202 An Efficient Adaptive Thresholding Technique for Wavelet Based Image Denoising

Authors: D.Gnanadurai, V.Sadasivam

Abstract:

This frame work describes a computationally more efficient and adaptive threshold estimation method for image denoising in the wavelet domain based on Generalized Gaussian Distribution (GGD) modeling of subband coefficients. In this proposed method, the choice of the threshold estimation is carried out by analysing the statistical parameters of the wavelet subband coefficients like standard deviation, arithmetic mean and geometrical mean. The noisy image is first decomposed into many levels to obtain different frequency bands. Then soft thresholding method is used to remove the noisy coefficients, by fixing the optimum thresholding value by the proposed method. Experimental results on several test images by using this method show that this method yields significantly superior image quality and better Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR). Here, to prove the efficiency of this method in image denoising, we have compared this with various denoising methods like wiener filter, Average filter, VisuShrink and BayesShrink.

Keywords: Wavelet Transform, Gaussian Noise, ImageDenoising, Filter Banks and Thresholding.

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201 Structural and Electronic Characterization of Supported Ni and Au Catalysts used in Environment Protection Determined by XRD,XAS and XPS methods

Authors: N. Aldea, V. Rednic, F. Matei, Tiandou Hu, M. Neumann

Abstract:

The nickel and gold nanoclusters as supported catalysts were analyzed by XAS, XRD and XPS in order to determine their local, global and electronic structure. The present study has pointed out a strong deformation of the local structure of the metal, due to its interaction with oxide supports. The average particle size, the mean squares of the microstrain, the particle size distribution and microstrain functions of the supported Ni and Au catalysts were determined by XRD method using Generalized Fermi Function for the X-ray line profiles approximation. Based on EXAFS analysis we consider that the local structure of the investigated systems is strongly distorted concerning the atomic number pairs. Metal-support interaction is confirmed by the shape changes of the probability densities of electron transitions: Ni K edge (1s → continuum and 2p), Au LIII-edge (2p3/2 → continuum, 6s, 6d5/2 and 6d3/2). XPS investigations confirm the metal-support interaction at their interface.

Keywords: local and global structure, metal-support interaction, supported metal catalysts, synchrotron radiation, X-ray absorptionspectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy.

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200 Gravitational Frequency Shifts for Photons and Particles

Authors: Jing-Gang Xie

Abstract:

The research, in this case, considers the integration of the Quantum Field Theory and the General Relativity Theory. As two successful models in explaining behaviors of particles, they are incompatible since they work at different masses and scales of energy, with the evidence that regards the description of black holes and universe formation. It is so considering previous efforts in merging the two theories, including the likes of the String Theory, Quantum Gravity models, and others. In a bid to prove an actionable experiment, the paper’s approach starts with the derivations of the existing theories at present. It goes on to test the derivations by applying the same initial assumptions, coupled with several deviations. The resulting equations get similar results to those of classical Newton model, quantum mechanics, and general relativity as long as conditions are normal. However, outcomes are different when conditions are extreme, specifically with no breakdowns even for less than Schwarzschild radius, or at Planck length cases. Even so, it proves the possibilities of integrating the two theories.

Keywords: General relativity theory, particles, photons, quantum gravity model, gravitational frequency shift.

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199 Application of Artificial Neural Network in Assessing Fill Slope Stability

Authors: An-Jui. Li, Kelvin Lim, Chien-Kuo Chiu, Benson Hsiung

Abstract:

This paper details the utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of slope stability whereby quick and convenient solutions can be obtained using the developed tool. The AI tool used in this study is the artificial neural network (ANN), while the slope stability analysis methods are the finite element limit analysis methods. The developed tool allows for the prompt prediction of the safety factors of fill slopes and their corresponding probability of failure (depending on the degree of variation of the soil parameters), which can give the practicing engineer a reasonable basis in their decision making. In fact, the successful use of the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm shows that slope stability analysis is no longer confined to the conventional methods of modeling, which at times may be tedious and repetitive during the preliminary design stage where the focus is more on cost saving options rather than detailed design. Therefore, similar ANN-based tools can be further developed to assist engineers in this aspect.

Keywords: Landslide, limit analysis, ANN, soil properties.

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198 Determining the Best Fitting Distributions for Minimum Flows of Streams in Gediz Basin

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, Minimum flows, probability distribution.

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197 Zero Inflated Models for Overdispersed Count Data

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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196 Searching the Stabilizing Effects of Neutron Shell Closure via Fusion Evaporation Residue Studies

Authors: B. R. S. Babu, E. Prasad, P. V. Laveen, A. M. Vinodkumar

Abstract:

Searching the “Island of stability” is a topic of extreme interest in theoretical as well as experimental modern physics today. This “island of stability” is spanned by superheavy elements (SHE's) that are produced in the laboratory. SHE's are believed to exist primarily due to the “magic” stabilizing effects of nuclear shell structure. SHE synthesis is extremely difficult due to their very low production cross section, often of the order of pico barns or less. Stabilizing effects of shell closures at proton number Z=82 and neutron number N=126 are predicted theoretically. Though stabilizing effects of Z=82 have been experimentally verified, no concluding observations have been made with N=126, so far. We measured and analyzed the total evaporation residue (ER) cross sections for a number of systems with neutron number around 126 to explore possible shell closure effects in ER cross sections, in this work.

Keywords: Superheavy element, fusion evaporation, evaporation reside, compound nucleus.

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195 Injuries Related to Kitesurfing

Authors: L. Lundgren, S. Brorsson, A-L Osvalder

Abstract:

Participation in sporting activities can lead to injury. Sport injuries have been widely studied in many sports including the more extreme categories of aquatic board sports. Kitesurfing is a relatively new water surface action sport, and has not yet been widely studied in terms of injuries and stress on the body. The aim of this study was to get information about which injuries that are most common among kitesurfing participants, where they occur, and their causes. Injuries were studied using an international open web questionnaire (n=206). The results showed that many respondents reported injuries, in total 251 injuries to knee (24%), ankle (17%), trunk (16%) and shoulders (10%), often sustained while doing jumps and tricks (40%). Among the reported injuries were joint injuries (n=101), muscle/tendon damages (n=47), wounds and cuts (n=36) and bone fractures (n=28). Also environmental factors and equipment can influence the risk of injury, or the extent of injury in a hazardous situation. Conclusively, the information from this retrospective study supports earlier studies in terms of prevalence and site of injuries. Suggestively, this information should be used for to build a foundation of knowledge about the sport for development of applications for physical training and product development.

Keywords: Kitesurfing, injuries, injury cause, questionnaire.

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194 Combing LCIA and Fuzzy Risk Assessment for Environmental Impact Assessment

Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Cheng-Wu Chen, Ken Yeh, Han-Hsi Liang

Abstract:

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure tool of environmental management for identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of development proposals. EIA reports usually analyze how the amounts or concentrations of pollutants obey the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can deepen the analysis of environmental impacts in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA to introduce the causal relationships among environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the LCIA concept into ERA as an integrated tool for EIA can extend the focus of the regulatory compliance of environmental impacts to determine of the significance of environmental impacts. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations due to insufficient information; therefore, ERA should be generalized to fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through the study case of the expansion plan of the world-s largest plastics processing factory.

Keywords: Fuzzy risk analysis, life cycle impact assessment, fuzzy logic, environmental impact assessment

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