Search results for: Fuzzy risk analysis

Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Cheng-Wu Chen, Ken Yeh, Han-Hsi Liang

Abstract:

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure tool of environmental management for identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of development proposals. EIA reports usually analyze how the amounts or concentrations of pollutants obey the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can deepen the analysis of environmental impacts in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA to introduce the causal relationships among environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the LCIA concept into ERA as an integrated tool for EIA can extend the focus of the regulatory compliance of environmental impacts to determine of the significance of environmental impacts. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations due to insufficient information; therefore, ERA should be generalized to fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through the study case of the expansion plan of the world-s largest plastics processing factory.

Keywords: Fuzzy risk analysis, life cycle impact assessment, fuzzy logic, environmental impact assessment

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Authors: Margaret F. Shipley

Abstract:

Fuzzy logic can be used when knowledge is incomplete or when ambiguity of data exists. The purpose of this paper is to propose a proactive fuzzy set- based model for reacting to the risk inherent in investment activities relative to a complete view of portfolio management. Fuzzy rules are given where, depending on the antecedents, the portfolio size may be slightly or significantly decreased or increased. The decision maker considers acceptable bounds on the proportion of acceptable risk and return. The Fuzzy Controller model allows learning to be achieved as 1) the firing strength of each rule is measured, 2) fuzzy output allows rules to be updated, and 3) new actions are recommended as the system continues to loop. An extension is given to the fuzzy controller that evaluates potential financial loss before adjusting the portfolio. An application is presented that illustrates the algorithm and extension developed in the paper.

Keywords: Portfolio Management, Financial Market Monitoring, Fuzzy Controller, Fuzzy Logic,

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

Abstract:

During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: Airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment.

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

Abstract:

Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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Authors: R. Uthayakumar, D. Easwaramoorthy

Abstract:

This paper investigates the fractals generated by the dynamical system of intuitionistic fuzzy contractions in the intuitionistic fuzzy metric spaces by generalizing the Hutchinson-Barnsley theory. We prove some existence and uniqueness theorems of fractals in the standard intuitionistic fuzzy metric spaces by using the intuitionistic fuzzy Banach contraction theorem. In addition to that, we analyze some results on intuitionistic fuzzy fractals in the standard intuitionistic fuzzy metric spaces with respect to the Hausdorff intuitionistic fuzzy metrics.

Keywords: Fractal Analysis, Fixed Point, Contraction, Iterated Function System, Intuitionistic Fuzzy Metric Space.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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Authors: P. Moeinzadeh, A. Hajfathaliha

Abstract:

Many firms implemented various initiatives such as outsourced manufacturing which could make a supply chain (SC) more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. So managing risk has become a critical component of SC management. Different types of SC vulnerability management methodologies have been proposed for managing SC risk, most offer only point-based solutions that deal with a limited set of risks. This research aims to reinforce SC risk management by proposing an integrated approach. SC risks are identified and a risk index classification structure is created. Then we develop a SC risk assessment approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) and the VIKOR methods under the fuzzy environment where the vagueness and subjectivity are handled with linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using FANP, risks weights are calculated and then inserted to the FVIKOR to rank the SC members and find the most risky partner.

Keywords: Analytic network process (ANP), Fuzzy sets, Supply chain risk management (SCRM), VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR)

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Authors: Prof. Chokri SLIM

Abstract:

A Novel fuzzy neural network combining with support vector learning mechanism called support-vector-based fuzzy neural networks (SVBFNN) is proposed. The SVBFNN combine the capability of minimizing the empirical risk (training error) and expected risk (testing error) of support vector learning in high dimensional data spaces and the efficient human-like reasoning of FNN.

Keywords: Neural network, fuzzy inference, machine learning, fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, support vector regression.

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Authors: Alshalaa A. Shleeg, Issmail M. Ellabib

Abstract:

Breast cancer is a major health burden worldwide being a major cause of death amongst women. In this paper, Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) are developed for the evaluation of breast cancer risk using Mamdani-type and Sugeno-type models. The paper outlines the basic difference between Mamdani-type FIS and Sugeno-type FIS. The results demonstrated the performance comparison of the two systems and the advantages of using Sugeno- type over Mamdani-type.

Keywords: Breast cancer diagnosis, Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), Fuzzy Logic, fuzzy intelligent technique.

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Authors: Marcel Shirvanian, Wolfram Lippe

Abstract:

Although the usefulness of fuzzy databases has been pointed out in several works, they are not fully developed in numerous domains. A task that is mostly disregarded and which is the topic of this paper is the determination of suitable inequalities for fuzzy sets in fuzzy query languages. This paper examines which kinds of fuzzy inequalities exist at all. Afterwards, different procedures are presented that appear theoretically appropriate. By being applied to various examples, their strengths and weaknesses are revealed. Furthermore, an algorithm for an efficient computation of the selected fuzzy inequality is shown.

Keywords: Fuzzy Databases, Fuzzy Inequalities, Fuzzy QueryLanguages, Fuzzy Ranking.

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

Abstract:

The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: Credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment.

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Authors: H. Iranmanesh, S. Nazari Shirkouhi, M. R. Skandari

Abstract:

Information Technology (IT) projects are always accompanied by various risks and because of high rate of failure in such projects, managing risks in order to neutralize or at least decrease their effects on the success of the project is strongly essential. In this paper, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is exploited as a means of risk evaluation methodology to prioritize and organize risk factors faced in IT projects. A real case of IT projects, a project of design and implementation of an integrated information system in a vehicle producing company in Iran is studied. Related risk factors are identified and then expert qualitative judgments about these factors are acquired. Translating these judgments to fuzzy numbers and using them as an input to FAHP, risk factors are then ranked and prioritized by FAHP in order to make project managers aware of more important risks and enable them to adopt suitable measures to deal with these highly devastative risks.

Keywords: Information technology projects, Risk evaluation, Analytic hierarchal process, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Yurii Bloshko, Oksana Olar

Abstract:

This paper presents the analysis of six different classes of Petri nets: fuzzy Petri nets (FPN), generalized fuzzy Petri nets (GFPN), parameterized fuzzy Petri nets (PFPN), T2GFPN, flexible generalized fuzzy Petri nets (FGFPN), binary Petri nets (BPN). These classes were simulated in the special software PNeS® for the analysis of its pros and cons on the example of models which are dedicated to the decision-making process of passenger transport logistics. The paper includes the analysis of two approaches: when input values are filled with the experts’ knowledge; when fuzzy expectations represented by output values are added to the point. These approaches fulfill the possibilities of triples of functions which are replaced with different combinations of t-/s-norms.

Keywords: Fuzzy petri net, intelligent computational techniques, knowledge representation, triangular norms.

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Authors: Sujit Kumar Sardar Manasi Mandal Samit Kumar Majumder

Abstract:

The notion of intuitionistic fuzzy sets was introduced by Atanassov as a generalization of the notion of fuzzy sets. Y.B. Jun and S.Z. Song introduced the notion of intuitionistic fuzzy points. In this paper we find some relations between the intuitionistic fuzzy ideals of a semigroup S and the set of all intuitionistic fuzzy points of S.

Keywords: Semigroup, Regular(intra-regular) semigroup, Intuitionistic fuzzy point, Intuitionistic fuzzy subsemigroup, Intuitionistic fuzzy ideal, Intuitionistic fuzzy interior ideal, Intuitionistic fuzzy semiprime ideal, Intuitionistic fuzzy prime ideal.

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Authors: H. Zarei, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, M. Karbasian

Abstract:

A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock portfolio. In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno- Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems, fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return and the other for risk. In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules, treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user. The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of 2003-2006 selected for data gathering.

Keywords: Stock Portfolio Selection, Fuzzy Rule-Base ExpertSystems, Financial Decision Support Systems, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis.

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Authors: J. Mahanta, P.K. Das

Abstract:

A new class of fuzzy closed sets, namely fuzzy weakly closed set in a fuzzy topological space is introduced and it is established that this class of fuzzy closed sets lies between fuzzy closed sets and fuzzy generalized closed sets. Alongwith the study of fundamental results of such closed sets, we define and characterize fuzzy weakly compact space and fuzzy weakly closed space.

Keywords: Fuzzy weakly-closed set, fuzzy weakly-closed space, fuzzy weakly-compactness, MSC: 54A40, 54D30.

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Authors: Do Hyeung Kim, Dae Hee Seo, Byung Doo Kim, Byung Gil Lee

Abstract:

As many recent researches being implemented in aviation and maritime aspects, strong doubts have been raised concerning the reliability of the estimation of collision risk. It is shown that using position and velocity of objects can lead to imprecise results. In this paper, therefore, a new approach to the estimation of collision risks using pose and shape of objects is proposed. Simulation results are presented validating the accuracy of the new criterion to adapt to collision risk algorithm based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: Collision risk, Pose and shape, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Jolly Puri, Shiv Prasad Yadav

Abstract:

Multi-component data envelopment analysis (MC-DEA) is a popular technique for measuring aggregate performance of the decision making units (DMUs) along with their components. However, the conventional MC-DEA is limited to crisp input and output data which may not always be available in exact form. In real life problems, data may be imprecise or fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we propose (i) a fuzzy MC-DEA (FMC-DEA) model in which shared and undesirable fuzzy resources are incorporated, (ii) the proposed FMC-DEA model is transformed into a pair of crisp models using α cut approach, (iii) fuzzy aggregate performance of a DMU and fuzzy efficiencies of components are defined to be fuzzy numbers, and (iv) a numerical example is illustrated to validate the proposed approach.

Keywords: Multi-component DEA, fuzzy multi-component DEA, fuzzy resources.

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Authors: K.C. Deshmukh, P.G. Khot, Nikhil

Abstract:

In the literature of information theory, there is necessity for comparing the different measures of fuzzy entropy and this consequently, gives rise to the need for normalizing measures of fuzzy entropy. In this paper, we have discussed this need and hence developed some normalized measures of fuzzy entropy. It is also desirable to maximize entropy and to minimize directed divergence or distance. Keeping in mind this idea, we have explained the method of optimizing different measures of fuzzy entropy.

Keywords: Fuzzy set, Uncertainty, Fuzzy entropy, Normalization, Membership function

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present fuzzy TOPSIS in an entropic fuzzy environment. Due to the ambiguous concepts often represented in decision data, exact values are insufficient to model real-life situations. In this paper, the rating of each alternative is defined in fuzzy linguistic terms, which can be expressed with triangular fuzzy numbers. The weight of each criterion is then derived from the decision matrix using the entropy weighting method. Next, a vertex method is proposed to calculate the distance between two triangular fuzzy numbers. According to the TOPSIS concept, a closeness coefficient is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives by simultaneously calculating the distances to both the fuzzy positive-ideal solution (FPIS) and the fuzzy negative-ideal solution (FNIS). Finally, an illustrative example of selecting stealth fighter aircraft is shown at the end of this article to highlight the procedure of the proposed method. Correlation analysis and validation analysis using TOPSIS, WSM, and WPM methods were performed to compare the ranking order of the alternatives.

Keywords: stealth fighter aircraft selection, fuzzy uncertainty theory (FUT), fuzzy entropic decision (FED), fuzzy linguistic variables, triangular fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS, WSM, WPM

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Authors: C.Natarajan, S.K.Ayyaswamy

Abstract:

Let G be a fuzzy graph. Then D Ôèå V is said to be a strong (weak) fuzzy dominating set of G if every vertex v ∈ V -D is strongly (weakly) dominated by some vertex u in D. We denote a strong (weak) fuzzy dominating set by sfd-set (wfd-set). The minimum scalar cardinality of a sfd-set (wfd-set) is called the strong (weak) fuzzy domination number of G and it is denoted by γsf (G)γwf (G). In this paper we introduce the concept of strong (weak) domination in fuzzy graphs and obtain some interesting results for this new parameter in fuzzy graphs.

Keywords: Fuzzy graphs, fuzzy domination, strong (weak) fuzzy domination number.

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Authors: G. S. Mahapatra, T. K. Roy

Abstract:

In general fuzzy sets are used to analyze the fuzzy system reliability. Here intuitionistic fuzzy set theory for analyzing the fuzzy system reliability has been used. To analyze the fuzzy system reliability, the reliability of each component of the system as a triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number is considered. Triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number and their arithmetic operations are introduced. Expressions for computing the fuzzy reliability of a series system and a parallel system following triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers have been described. Here an imprecise reliability model of an electric network model of dark room is taken. To compute the imprecise reliability of the above said system, reliability of each component of the systems is represented by triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Respective numerical example is presented.

Keywords: Fuzzy set, Intuitionistic fuzzy number, Systemreliability, Triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This study uses two-dimensional standard fuzzy sets to enhance multiple criteria decision-making analysis for passenger aircraft selection, allowing decision-makers to express judgments with uncertain and vague information. Using two-dimensional fuzzy numbers, three decision makers evaluated three aircraft alternatives according to seven decision criteria. A validity analysis based on two-dimensional standard fuzzy weighted geometric (SFWG) and two-dimensional standard fuzzy weighted average (SFGA) operators is conducted to test the proposed approach's robustness and effectiveness in the fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) evaluation process. 

Keywords: Standard fuzzy sets (SFSs), aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs), SFWG, SFGA, MCDM

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Authors: K. Chandrasekhara Rao, V. Swaminathan

Abstract:

The anti-homomorphic image of fuzzy ideals, fuzzy ideals of near-rings and anti ideals are discussed in this note. A necessary and sufficient condition has been established for near-ring anti ideal to be characteristic.

Keywords: Fuzzy Ideals, Anti fuzzy subgroup, Anti fuzzy ideals, Anti homomorphism, Lower α level cut.

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Authors: Arsham Borumand Saeid

Abstract:

In this note the notion of interval-valued fuzzy BG-algebras (briefly, i-v fuzzy BG-algebras), the level and strong level BG-subalgebra is introduced. Then we state and prove some theorems which determine the relationship between these notions and BG-subalgebras. The images and inverse images of i-v fuzzy BG-subalgebras are defined, and how the homomorphic images and inverse images of i-v fuzzy BG-subalgebra becomes i-v fuzzy BG-algebras are studied.

Keywords: BG-algebra, fuzzy BG-subalgebra, interval-valued fuzzy set, interval-valued fuzzy BG-subalgebra.

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Authors: Yuli Hu, Shaoquan Sun

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to introduce the concepts of fuzzy subalgebras, fuzzy ideals and fuzzy quotient algebras of BCI-algebras with operators, and to investigate their basic properties.

Keywords: BCI-algebras, BCI-algebras with operators, fuzzy subalgebras, fuzzy ideals, fuzzy quotient algebras.

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Authors: D.R Prince Williams

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce the notion θ-Euclidean k-fuzzy ideal in semirings and to study the properties of the image and pre image of a θ -Euclidean k-fuzzy ideal in a semirings under epimorphism.

Keywords: semiring, fuzzy ideal, k–fuzzy ideal, θ -Euclidean Lfuzzyideal, θ -Euclidean fuzzy k–ideal, θ -Euclidean k-fuzzy ideal.

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Authors: Rajkumar Verma, Bhu Dev Sharma

Abstract:

In the present communication, the existing measures of fuzzy entropy are reviewed. A generalized parametric exponential fuzzy entropy is defined.Our study of the four essential and some other properties of the proposed measure, clearly establishes the validity of the measure as an entropy.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, fuzzy entropy, exponential entropy, exponential fuzzy entropy.

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Authors: Hassan M. Elragal

Abstract:

This paper discusses a method for improving accuracy of fuzzy-rule-based classifiers using particle swarm optimization (PSO). Two different fuzzy classifiers are considered and optimized. The first classifier is based on Mamdani fuzzy inference system (M_PSO fuzzy classifier). The second classifier is based on Takagi- Sugeno fuzzy inference system (TS_PSO fuzzy classifier). The parameters of the proposed fuzzy classifiers including premise (antecedent) parameters, consequent parameters and structure of fuzzy rules are optimized using PSO. Experimental results show that higher classification accuracy can be obtained with a lower number of fuzzy rules by using the proposed PSO fuzzy classifiers. The performances of M_PSO and TS_PSO fuzzy classifiers are compared to other fuzzy based classifiers

Keywords: Fuzzy classifier, Optimization of fuzzy systemparameters, Particle swarm optimization, Pattern classification.

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