Search results for: Stochastic estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1282

Search results for: Stochastic estimation

982 Joint Adaptive Block Matching Search (JABMS) Algorithm

Authors: V.K.Ananthashayana, Pushpa.M.K

Abstract:

In this paper a new Joint Adaptive Block Matching Search (JABMS) algorithm is proposed to generate motion vector and search a best match macro block by classifying the motion vector movement based on prediction error. Diamond Search (DS) algorithm generates high estimation accuracy when motion vector is small and Adaptive Rood Pattern Search (ARPS) algorithm can handle large motion vector but is not very accurate. The proposed JABMS algorithm which is capable of considering both small and large motions gives improved estimation accuracy and the computational cost is reduced by 15.2 times compared with Exhaustive Search (ES) algorithm and is 1.3 times less compared with Diamond search algorithm.

Keywords: Adaptive rood pattern search, Block matching, Diamond search, Joint Adaptive search, Motion estimation.

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981 Stature Estimation Based On Lower Limb Dimensions in the Malaysian Population

Authors: F. M. Nor, N. Abdullah, Al-M. Mustapa, L. Q. Wen, N. A. Faisal, D. A. A. Ahmad Nazari

Abstract:

Estimation of stature is an important step in developing a biological profile for human identification. It may provide a valuable indicator for unknown individual in a population. The aim of this study was to analyses the relationship between stature and lower limb dimensions in the Malaysian population. The sample comprised 100 corpses, which included 69 males and 31 females between age ranges of 20 to 90 years old. The parameters measured were stature, thigh length, lower leg length, leg length, foot length, foot height and foot breadth. Results showed that mean values in males were significantly higher than those in females (P < 0.05). There were significant correlations between lower limb dimensions and stature. Cross-validation of the equation on 100 individuals showed close approximation between known stature and estimated stature. It was concluded that lower limb dimensions were useful for estimation of stature, which should be validated in future studies. 

Keywords: Forensic anthropology population data, lower leg length, Malaysian, stature.

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980 Estimation of OPC, Fly Ash and Slag Contents in Blended and Composite Cements by Selective Dissolution Method

Authors: Suresh Palla, Suresh Vanguri, Anitha, B. N. Mohapatra

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of the study on the estimation of fly ash, slag and cement contents in blended and composite cements by selective dissolution method. Types of cement samples investigated include Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) with fly ash as performance improver, OPC with slag as performance improver, Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC), Portland Slag Cement (PSC) and composite cement confirming to respective Indian Standards. Slag and OPC contents in PSC were estimated by selectively dissolving OPC in stage 1 and selectively dissolving slag in stage 2. In the case of composite cement sample, the percentage of cement, slag and fly ash were estimated systematically by selective dissolution of cement, slag and fly ash in three stages. In the first stage, cement is dissolved and separated by leaving the residue of slag and fly ash, designated as R1. The second stage involves gravimetric estimation of fractions of OPC, residue and selective dissolution of fly ash and slag contents. Fly ash content, R2 was estimated through gravimetric analysis. Thereafter, the difference between the R1 and R2 is considered as slag content. The obtained results of cement, fly ash and slag using selective dissolution method showed 10% of standard deviation with the corresponding percentage of respective constituents. The results suggest that this selective dissolution method can be successfully used for estimation of OPC and Supplementary Cementitious material (SCM) contents in different types of cements.

Keywords: Selective dissolution method, fly ash, Ground Granulated blast furnace slag, EDTA.

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979 The Study of the Intelligent Fuzzy Weighted Input Estimation Method Combined with the Experiment Verification for the Multilayer Materials

Authors: Ming-Hui Lee, Tsung-Chien Chen, Tsu-Ping Yu, Horng-Yuan Jang

Abstract:

The innovative intelligent fuzzy weighted input estimation method (FWIEM) can be applied to the inverse heat transfer conduction problem (IHCP) to estimate the unknown time-varying heat flux of the multilayer materials as presented in this paper. The feasibility of this method can be verified by adopting the temperature measurement experiment. The experiment modular may be designed by using the copper sample which is stacked up 4 aluminum samples with different thicknesses. Furthermore, the bottoms of copper samples are heated by applying the standard heat source, and the temperatures on the tops of aluminum are measured by using the thermocouples. The temperature measurements are then regarded as the inputs into the presented method to estimate the heat flux in the bottoms of copper samples. The influence on the estimation caused by the temperature measurement of the sample with different thickness, the processing noise covariance Q, the weighting factor γ , the sampling time interval Δt , and the space discrete interval Δx , will be investigated by utilizing the experiment verification. The results show that this method is efficient and robust to estimate the unknown time-varying heat input of the multilayer materials.

Keywords: Multilayer Materials, Input Estimation Method, IHCP, Heat Flux.

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978 Performance Evaluation of Complex Electrical Bio-impedance from V/I Four-electrode Measurements

Authors: Towfeeq Fairooz, Salim Istyaq

Abstract:

The passive electrical properties of a tissue depends on the intrinsic constituents and its structure, therefore by measuring the complex electrical impedance of the tissue it might be possible to obtain indicators of the tissue state or physiological activity [1]. Complete bio-impedance information relative to physiology and pathology of a human body and functional states of the body tissue or organs can be extracted by using a technique containing a fourelectrode measurement setup. This work presents the estimation measurement setup based on the four-electrode technique. First, the complex impedance is estimated by three different estimation techniques: Fourier, Sine Correlation and Digital De-convolution and then estimation errors for the magnitude, phase, reactance and resistance are calculated and analyzed for different levels of disturbances in the observations. The absolute values of relative errors are plotted and the graphical performance of each technique is compared.

Keywords: Electrical Impedance, Fast Fourier Transform, Additive White Gaussian Noise, Total Least Square, Digital De-Convolution, Sine-Correlation.

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977 Development of a Catchment Water Quality Model for Continuous Simulations of Pollutants Build-up and Wash-off

Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Dr. Monzur Imteaz, Dr. Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Prof. Abdallah Shanableh

Abstract:

Estimation of runoff water quality parameters is required to determine appropriate water quality management options. Various models are used to estimate runoff water quality parameters. However, most models provide event-based estimates of water quality parameters for specific sites. The work presented in this paper describes the development of a model that continuously simulates the accumulation and wash-off of water quality pollutants in a catchment. The model allows estimation of pollutants build-up during dry periods and pollutants wash-off during storm events. The model was developed by integrating two individual models; rainfall-runoff model, and catchment water quality model. The rainfall-runoff model is based on the time-area runoff estimation method. The model allows users to estimate the time of concentration using a range of established methods. The model also allows estimation of the continuing runoff losses using any of the available estimation methods (i.e., constant, linearly varying or exponentially varying). Pollutants build-up in a catchment was represented by one of three pre-defined functions; power, exponential, or saturation. Similarly, pollutants wash-off was represented by one of three different functions; power, rating-curve, or exponential. The developed runoff water quality model was set-up to simulate the build-up and wash-off of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The application of the model was demonstrated using available runoff and TSS field data from road and roof surfaces in the Gold Coast, Australia. The model provided excellent representation of the field data demonstrating the simplicity yet effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Catchment, continuous pollutants build-up, pollutants wash-off, runoff, runoff water quality model.

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976 Time-Derivative Estimation of Noisy Movie Data using Adaptive Control Theory

Authors: Soon-Hyun Park, Takami Matsuo

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive differentiator of sequential data based on the adaptive control theory. The algorithm is applied to detect moving objects by estimating a temporal gradient of sequential data at a specified pixel. We adopt two nonlinear intensity functions to reduce the influence of noises. The derivatives of the nonlinear intensity functions are estimated by an adaptive observer with σ-modification update law.

Keywords: Adaptive estimation, parameter adjustmentlaw, motion detection, temporal gradient, differential filter.

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975 Modelling Hydrological Time Series Using Wakeby Distribution

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: Generalized extreme values (GEV), likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution.

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974 On Solving Single-Period Inventory Model under Hybrid Uncertainty

Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure that attains optimality in two steps with demand information availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy expected value, Fuzzy random demand, Hybrid uncertainty, Optimal order quantity, Single-period inventory

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973 Bi-linear Complementarity Problem

Authors: Chao Wang, Ting-Zhu Huang Chen Jia

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new linear complementarity problem named as bi-linear complementarity problem (BLCP) and the method for solving BLCP. In addition, the algorithm for error estimation of BLCP is also given. Numerical experiments show that the algorithm is efficient.

Keywords: Bi-linear complementarity problem, Linear complementarity problem, Extended linear complementarity problem, Error estimation, P-matrix, M-matrix.

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972 Investigation of the Unbiased Characteristic of Doppler Frequency to Different Antenna Array Geometries

Authors: Somayeh Komeylian

Abstract:

Array signal processing techniques have been recently developing in a variety application of the performance enhancement of receivers by refraining the power of jamming and interference signals. In this scenario, biases induced to the antenna array receiver degrade significantly the accurate estimation of the carrier phase. Owing to the integration of frequency becomes the carrier phase, we have obtained the unbiased doppler frequency for the high precision estimation of carrier phase. The unbiased characteristic of Doppler frequency to the power jamming and the other interference signals allows achieving the highly accurate estimation of phase carrier. In this study, we have rigorously investigated the unbiased characteristic of Doppler frequency to the variation of the antenna array geometries. The simulation results have efficiently verified that the Doppler frequency remains also unbiased and accurate to the variation of antenna array geometries.

Keywords: Array signal processing, unbiased Doppler frequency, GNSS, carrier phase, slowly fluctuating point target.

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971 Estimation of R= P [Y < X] for Two-parameter Burr Type XII Distribution

Authors: H.Panahi, S.Asadi

Abstract:

In this article, we consider the estimation of P[Y < X], when strength, X and stress, Y are two independent variables of Burr Type XII distribution. The MLE of the R based on one simple iterative procedure is obtained. Assuming that the common parameter is known, the maximum likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and Bayes estimator of P[Y < X] are discussed. The exact confidence interval of the R is also obtained. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the different proposed methods.

Keywords: Stress-Strength model, Maximum likelihood estimator, Bayes estimator, Burr type XII distribution.

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970 Implementation of Channel Estimation and Timing Synchronization Algorithms for MIMO-OFDM System Using NI USRP 2920

Authors: Ali Beydoun, Hamzé H. Alaeddine

Abstract:

MIMO-OFDM communication system presents a key solution for the next generation of mobile communication due to its high spectral efficiency, high data rate and robustness against multi-path fading channels. However, MIMO-OFDM system requires a perfect knowledge of the channel state information and a good synchronization between the transmitter and the receiver to achieve the expected performances. Recently, we have proposed two algorithms for channel estimation and timing synchronization with good performances and very low implementation complexity compared to those proposed in the literature. In order to validate and evaluate the efficiency of these algorithms in real environments, this paper presents in detail the implementation of 2 × 2 MIMO-OFDM system based on LabVIEW and USRP 2920. Implementation results show a good agreement with the simulation results under different configuration parameters.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM system, timing synchronization, channel estimation, STBC, USRP 2920.

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969 State Estimation Based on Unscented Kalman Filter for Burgers’ Equation

Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Controlling the flow of fluids is a challenging problem that arises in many fields. Burgers’ equation is a fundamental equation for several flow phenomena such as traffic, shock waves, and turbulence. The optimal feedback control method, so-called model predictive control, has been proposed for Burgers’ equation. However, the model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In practical point of view, it is unusual that all the state variables of systems are exactly known, because the state variables of systems are measured through output sensors and limited parts of them can be only available. In fact, it is usual that flow velocities of fluid systems cannot be measured for all spatial domains. Hence, any practical feedback controller for fluid systems must incorporate some type of state estimator. To apply the model predictive control to the fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation, it is needed to establish a state estimation method for Burgers’ equation with limited measurable state variables. To this purpose, we apply unscented Kalman filter for estimating the state variables of fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation. The objective of this study is to establish a state estimation method based on unscented Kalman filter for Burgers’ equation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: State estimation, fluid systems, observer systems, unscented Kalman filter.

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968 Motion Parameter Estimation via Dopplerlet-Transform-Based Matched Field Processing

Authors: Hongyan Dai

Abstract:

This work presents a matched field processing (MFP) algorithm based on Dopplerlet transform for estimating the motion parameters of a sound source moving along a straight line and with a constant speed by using a piecewise strategy, which can significantly reduce the computational burden. Monte Carlo simulation results and an experimental result are presented to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm advocated.

Keywords: matched field processing; Dopplerlet transform; motion parameter estimation; piecewise strategy

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967 Generational PipeLined Genetic Algorithm (PLGA)using Stochastic Selection

Authors: Malay K. Pakhira, Rajat K. De

Abstract:

In this paper, a pipelined version of genetic algorithm, called PLGA, and a corresponding hardware platform are described. The basic operations of conventional GA (CGA) are made pipelined using an appropriate selection scheme. The selection operator, used here, is stochastic in nature and is called SA-selection. This helps maintaining the basic generational nature of the proposed pipelined GA (PLGA). A number of benchmark problems are used to compare the performances of conventional roulette-wheel selection and the SA-selection. These include unimodal and multimodal functions with dimensionality varying from very small to very large. It is seen that the SA-selection scheme is giving comparable performances with respect to the classical roulette-wheel selection scheme, for all the instances, when quality of solutions and rate of convergence are considered. The speedups obtained by PLGA for different benchmarks are found to be significant. It is shown that a complete hardware pipeline can be developed using the proposed scheme, if parallel evaluation of the fitness expression is possible. In this connection a low-cost but very fast hardware evaluation unit is described. Results of simulation experiments show that in a pipelined hardware environment, PLGA will be much faster than CGA. In terms of efficiency, PLGA is found to outperform parallel GA (PGA) also.

Keywords: Hardware evaluation, Hardware pipeline, Optimization, Pipelined genetic algorithm, SA-selection.

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966 A Study on a Research and Development Cost-Estimation Model in Korea

Authors: Babakina Alexandra, Yong Soo Kim

Abstract:

In this study, we analyzed the factors that affect research funds using linear regression analysis to increase the effectiveness of investments in national research projects. We collected 7,916 items of data on research projects that were in the process of being finished or were completed between 2010 and 2011. Data pre-processing and visualization were performed to derive statistically significant results. We identified factors that affected funding using analysis of fit distributions and estimated increasing or decreasing tendencies based on these factors.

Keywords: R&D funding, Cost estimation, Linear regression, Preliminary feasibility study.

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965 Estimation of Synchronous Machine Synchronizing and Damping Torque Coefficients

Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar

Abstract:

Synchronizing and damping torque coefficients of a synchronous machine can give a quite clear picture for machine behavior during transients. These coefficients are used as a power system transient stability measurement. In this paper, a crow search optimization algorithm is presented and implemented to study the power system stability during transients. The algorithm makes use of the machine responses to perform the stability study in time domain. The problem is formulated as a dynamic estimation problem. An objective function that minimizes the error square in the estimated coefficients is designed. The method is tested using practical system with different study cases. Results are reported and a thorough discussion is presented. The study illustrates that the proposed method can estimate the stability coefficients for the critical stable cases where other methods may fail. The tests proved that the proposed tool is an accurate and reliable tool for estimating the machine coefficients for assessment of power system stability.

Keywords: Optimization, estimation, synchronous, machine, crow search.

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964 Multiple Subcarrier Indoor Geolocation System in MIMO-OFDM WLAN APs Structure

Authors: Abdul Hafiizh, Shigeki Obote, Kenichi Kagoshima

Abstract:

This report aims to utilize existing and future Multiple-Input Multiple-Output Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Wireless Local Area Network (MIMO-OFDM WLAN) systems characteristics–such as multiple subcarriers, multiple antennas, and channel estimation characteristics–for indoor location estimation systems based on the Direction of Arrival (DOA) and Radio Signal Strength Indication (RSSI) methods. Hybrid of DOA-RSSI methods also evaluated. In the experimental data result, we show that location estimation accuracy performances can be increased by minimizing the multipath fading effect. This is done using multiple subcarrier frequencies over wideband frequencies to estimate one location. The proposed methods are analyzed in both a wide indoor environment and a typical room-sized office. In the experiments, WLAN terminal locations are estimated by measuring multiple subcarriers from arrays of three dipole antennas of access points (AP). This research demonstrates highly accurate, robust and hardware-free add-on software for indoor location estimations based on a MIMO-OFDM WLAN system.

Keywords: Direction of Arrival (DOA), Indoor location estimation method, Multipath Fading, MIMO-OFDM, Received Signal Strength Indication (RSSI), WLAN, Hybrid DOA-RSSI

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963 On Maneuvering Target Tracking with Online Observed Colored Glint Noise Parameter Estimation

Authors: M. A. Masnadi-Shirazi, S. A. Banani

Abstract:

In this paper a comprehensive algorithm is presented to alleviate the undesired simultaneous effects of target maneuvering, observed glint noise distribution, and colored noise spectrum using online colored glint noise parameter estimation. The simulation results illustrate a significant reduction in the root mean square error (RMSE) produced by the proposed algorithm compared to the algorithms that do not compensate all the above effects simultaneously.

Keywords: Glint noise, IMM, Kalman Filter, Kinematics, Target Tracking.

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962 Modelling an Investment Portfolio with Mandatory and Voluntary Contributions under M-CEV Model

Authors: Amadi Ugwulo Chinyere, Lewis D. Gbarayorks, Emem N. H. Inamete

Abstract:

In this paper, the mandatory contribution, additional voluntary contribution (AVC) and administrative charges are merged together to determine the optimal investment strategy (OIS) for a pension plan member (PPM) in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme under the modified constant elasticity of variance (M-CEV) model. We assume that the voluntary contribution is a stochastic process and a portfolio consisting of one risk free asset and one risky asset modeled by the M-CEV model is considered. Also, a stochastic differential equation consisting of PPM’s monthly contributions, voluntary contributions and administrative charges is obtained. More so, an optimization problem in the form of Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation which is a nonlinear partial differential equation is obtained. Using power transformation and change of variables method, an explicit solution of the OIS and the value function are obtained under constant absolute risk averse (CARA). Furthermore, numerical simulations on the impact of some sensitive parameters on OIS were discussed extensively. Finally, our result generalizes some existing result in the literature.

Keywords: DC pension fund, modified constant elasticity of variance, optimal investment strategies, voluntary contribution, administrative charges.

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961 Accuracy of Displacement Estimation and Selection of Capacitors for a Four Degrees of Freedom Capacitive Force Sensor

Authors: Chisato Murakami, Makoto Takahashi

Abstract:

Force sensor has been used as requisite for knowing information on the amount and the directions of forces on the skin surface. We have developed a four-degrees-of-freedom capacitive force sensor (approximately 20×20×5 mm3) that has a flexible structure and sixteen parallel plate capacitors. An iterative algorithm was developed for estimating four displacements from the sixteen capacitances using fourth-order polynomial approximation of characteristics between capacitance and displacement. The estimation results from measured capacitances had large error caused by deterioration of the characteristics. In this study, effective capacitors had major information were selected on the basis of the capacitance change range and the characteristic shape. Maximum errors in calibration and non-calibration points were 25%and 6.8%.However the maximum error was larger than desired value, the smallness of averaged value indicated the occurrence of a few large error points. On the other hand, error in non-calibration point was within desired value.

 

Keywords: Force sensors, capacitive sensors, estimation, iterative algorithms.

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960 Complex Wavelet Transform Based Image Denoising and Zooming Under the LMMSE Framework

Authors: T. P. Athira, Gibin Chacko George

Abstract:

This paper proposes a dual tree complex wavelet transform (DT-CWT) based directional interpolation scheme for noisy images. The problems of denoising and interpolation are modelled as to estimate the noiseless and missing samples under the same framework of optimal estimation. Initially, DT-CWT is used to decompose an input low-resolution noisy image into low and high frequency subbands. The high-frequency subband images are interpolated by linear minimum mean square estimation (LMMSE) based interpolation, which preserves the edges of the interpolated images. For each noisy LR image sample, we compute multiple estimates of it along different directions and then fuse those directional estimates for a more accurate denoised LR image. The estimation parameters calculated in the denoising processing can be readily used to interpolate the missing samples. The inverse DT-CWT is applied on the denoised input and interpolated high frequency subband images to obtain the high resolution image. Compared with the conventional schemes that perform denoising and interpolation in tandem, the proposed DT-CWT based noisy image interpolation method can reduce many noise-caused interpolation artifacts and preserve well the image edge structures. The visual and quantitative results show that the proposed technique outperforms many of the existing denoising and interpolation methods.

Keywords: Dual-tree complex wavelet transform (DT-CWT), denoising, interpolation, optimal estimation, super resolution.

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959 Analysis of Target Location Estimation in High Performance Radar System

Authors: Jin-Hyeok Kim, Won-Chul Choi, Seung-Ri Jin, Dong-Jo Park

Abstract:

In this paper, an analysis of a target location estimation system using the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) for high performance radar systems is presented. In synthetic environments, we are here concerned with three key elements of radar system modeling, which makes radar systems operates accurately in strategic situation in virtual ground. Radar Cross Section (RCS) modeling is used to determine the actual amount of electromagnetic waves that are reflected from a tactical object. Pattern Propagation Factor (PPF) is an attenuation coefficient of the radar equation that contains the reflection from the surface of the earth, the diffraction, the refraction and scattering by the atmospheric environment. Clutter is the unwanted echoes of electronic systems. For the data fusion of output results from radar detection in synthetic environment, BLUE is used and compared with the mean values of each simulation results. Simulation results demonstrate the performance of the radar system.

Keywords: Best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) , data fusion, radar system modeling, target location estimation

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958 Phosphine Mortality Estimation for Simulation of Controlling Pest of Stored Grain: Lesser Grain Borer (Rhyzopertha dominica)

Authors: Mingren Shi, Michael Renton

Abstract:

There is a world-wide need for the development of sustainable management strategies to control pest infestation and the development of phosphine (PH3) resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica). Computer simulation models can provide a relatively fast, safe and inexpensive way to weigh the merits of various management options. However, the usefulness of simulation models relies on the accurate estimation of important model parameters, such as mortality. Concentration and time of exposure are both important in determining mortality in response to a toxic agent. Recent research indicated the existence of two resistance phenotypes in R. dominica in Australia, weak and strong, and revealed that the presence of resistance alleles at two loci confers strong resistance, thus motivating the construction of a two-locus model of resistance. Experimental data sets on purified pest strains, each corresponding to a single genotype of our two-locus model, were also available. Hence it became possible to explicitly include mortalities of the different genotypes in the model. In this paper we described how we used two generalized linear models (GLM), probit and logistic models, to fit the available experimental data sets. We used a direct algebraic approach generalized inverse matrix technique, rather than the traditional maximum likelihood estimation, to estimate the model parameters. The results show that both probit and logistic models fit the data sets well but the former is much better in terms of small least squares (numerical) errors. Meanwhile, the generalized inverse matrix technique achieved similar accuracy results to those from the maximum likelihood estimation, but is less time consuming and computationally demanding.

Keywords: mortality estimation, probit models, logistic model, generalized inverse matrix approach, pest control simulation

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957 Using Field Indices of Rill and Gully in order to Erosion Estimating and Sediment Analysis (Case Study: Menderjan Watershed in Isfahan Province, Iran)

Authors: Masoud Nasri, Sadat Feiznia, Mohammad Jafari, Hasan Ahmadi

Abstract:

Today, incorrect use of lands and land use changes, excessive grazing, no suitable using of agricultural farms, plowing on steep slopes, road construct, building construct, mine excavation etc have been caused increasing of soil erosion and sediment yield. For erosion and sediment estimation one can use statistical and empirical methods. This needs to identify land unit map and the map of effective factors. However, these empirical methods are usually time consuming and do not give accurate estimation of erosion. In this study, we applied GIS techniques to estimate erosion and sediment of Menderjan watershed at upstream Zayandehrud river in center of Iran. Erosion faces at each land unit were defined on the basis of land use, geology and land unit map using GIS. The UTM coordinates of each erosion type that showed more erosion amounts such as rills and gullies were inserted in GIS using GPS data. The frequency of erosion indicators at each land unit, land use and their sediment yield of these indices were calculated. Also using tendency analysis of sediment yield changes in watershed outlet (Menderjan hydrometric gauge station), was calculated related parameters and estimation errors. The results of this study according to implemented watershed management projects can be used for more rapid and more accurate estimation of erosion than traditional methods. These results can also be used for regional erosion assessment and can be used for remote sensing image processing.

Keywords: Erosion and sedimentation, Gully, Rill, GIS, GPS, Menderjan Watershed

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956 The Martingale Options Price Valuation for European Puts Using Stochastic Differential Equation Models

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

Abstract:

In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: Equivalent Martingale Measure, European Put Option, Girsanov Theorem, Martingales, Monte Carlo method, option price valuation, option price valuation formula.

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955 Foil Bearing Stiffness Estimation with Pseudospectral Scheme

Authors: Balaji Sankar, Sadanand Kulkarni

Abstract:

Compliant foil gas lubricated bearings are used for the support of light loads in the order of few kilograms at high speeds, in the order of 50,000 RPM. The stiffness of the foil bearings depends both on the stiffness of the compliant foil and on the lubricating gas film. The stiffness of the bearings plays a crucial role in the stable operation of the supported rotor over a range of speeds. This paper describes a numerical approach to estimate the stiffness of the bearings using pseudo spectral scheme. Methodology to obtain the stiffness of the foil bearing as a function of weight of the shaft is given and the results are presented.

Keywords: Foil bearing, simulation, numerical, stiffness estimation.

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954 The Relative Efficiency Based on the MSE in Generalized Ridge Estimate

Authors: Chao Yuan, Bao Guang Tian

Abstract:

A relative efficiency is defined as Ridge Estimate in the general linear model. The relative efficiency is based on the Mean square error. In this paper, we put forward a parameter of Ridge Estimate and discussions are made on the relative efficiency between the ridge estimation and the General Ridge Estimate. Eventually, this paper proves that the estimation is better than the general ridge estimate, which is based on the MSE.

Keywords: Ridge estimate, generalized ridge estimate, MSE, relative efficiency.

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953 On the Hierarchical Ergodicity Coefficient

Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

In this paper, we deal with the fundamental concepts and properties of ergodicity coefficients in a hierarchical sense by making use of partition. Moreover, we establish a hierarchial Hajnal’s inequality improving some previous results.

Keywords: Stochastic matrix, ergodicity coefficient, partition.

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