Search results for: statistical area

Authors: Tzu-Jung Tseng, Pei-Hsuen Han, Tsung-Hsueh Lu

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Background: Ensuring patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) access to hospitals that could perform percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in time is an important concern of healthcare managers. One commonly used the method to assess the coverage of population access to PCI hospital is the use GIS-estimated linear distance (crow's fly distance) between the district centroid and the nearest PCI hospital. If the distance is within a given distance (such as 20 km), the entire population of that district is considered to have appropriate access to PCI. The premise of using district centroid to estimate the coverage of population resident in that district is that the people live in the district are evenly distributed. In reality, the population density is not evenly distributed within the administrative district, especially in rural districts. Fortunately, the Taiwan government released basic statistical area (on average 450 population within the area) recently, which provide us an opportunity to estimate the coverage of population access to PCI services more accurate. Objectives: We aimed in this study to compare the population covered by a give PCI hospital according to traditional administrative district versus basic statistical area. We further examined if the differences between two geographic units used would be larger in a rural area than in urban area. Method: We selected two hospitals in Tainan City for this analysis. Hospital A is in urban area, hospital B is in rural area. The population in each traditional administrative district and basic statistical area are obtained from Taiwan National Geographic Information System, Ministry of Internal Affairs. Results: Estimated population live within 20 km of hospital A and B was 1,515,846 and 323,472 according to traditional administrative district and was 1,506,325 and 428,556 according to basic statistical area. Conclusion: In urban area, the estimated access population to PCI services was similar between two geographic units. However, in rural areas, the access population would be overestimated.

Keywords: accessibility, basic statistical area, modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)

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Authors: Jung-Hong Hong, Jing-Cen Yang, Cai-Yu Ou

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The analysis of geographic inequality heavily relies on the use of location-enabled statistical data and quantitative measures to present the spatial patterns of the selected phenomena and analyze their differences. To protect the privacy of individual instance and link to administrative units, point-based datasets are spatially aggregated to area-based statistical datasets, where only the overall status for the selected levels of spatial units is used for decision making. The partition of the spatial units thus has dominant influence on the outcomes of the analyzed results, well known as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). A new spatial reference framework, the Taiwan Geographical Statistical Classification (TGSC), was recently introduced in Taiwan based on the spatial partition principles of homogeneous consideration of the number of population and households. Comparing to the outcomes of the traditional township units, TGSC provides additional levels of spatial units with finer granularity for presenting spatial phenomena and enables domain experts to select appropriate dissemination level for publishing statistical data. This paper compares the results of respectively using TGSC and township unit on the mortality data and examines the spatial characteristics of their outcomes. For the mortality data between the period of January 1^st, 2008 and December 31^st, 2010 of the Taitung County, the all-cause age-standardized death rate (ASDR) ranges from 571 to 1757 per 100,000 persons, whereas the 2^nd dissemination area (TGSC) shows greater variation, ranged from 0 to 2222 per 100,000. The finer granularity of spatial units of TGSC clearly provides better outcomes for identifying and evaluating the geographic inequality and can be further analyzed with the statistical measures from other perspectives (e.g., population, area, environment.). The management and analysis of the statistical data referring to the TGSC in this research is strongly supported by the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. An integrated workflow that consists of the tasks of the processing of death certificates, the geocoding of street address, the quality assurance of geocoded results, the automatic calculation of statistic measures, the standardized encoding of measures and the geo-visualization of statistical outcomes is developed. This paper also introduces a set of auxiliary measures from a geographic distribution perspective to further examine the hidden spatial characteristics of mortality data and justify the analyzed results. With the common statistical area framework like TGSC, the preliminary results demonstrate promising potential for developing a web-based statistical service that can effectively access domain statistical data and present the analyzed outcomes in meaningful ways to avoid wrong decision making.

Keywords: mortality map, spatial patterns, statistical area, variation

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Authors: F. Berna Benli, Özgür Keskin

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Lately, many mathematicians have been studied the statistical convergence of a sequence of fuzzy numbers. We know that Lambda-statistically convergence is a kind of convergence between ordinary convergence and statistical convergence. In this paper, we will introduce the new kind of convergence such as λ-levelwise statistical convergence. Then, we will define the concept of the λ-levelwise statistical cluster and limit points of a sequence of fuzzy numbers. Also, we will discuss the relations between the sets of λ-levelwise statistical cluster points and λ-levelwise statistical limit points of sequences of fuzzy numbers. This work has been extended in this paper, where some relations have been considered such that when lambda-statistical limit inferior and lambda-statistical limit superior for lambda-statistically convergent sequences of fuzzy numbers are equal. Furthermore, lambda-statistical boundedness condition for different sequences of fuzzy numbers has been studied.

Keywords: fuzzy number, λ-levelwise statistical cluster points, λ-levelwise statistical convergence, λ-levelwise statistical limit points, λ-statistical cluster points, λ-statistical convergence, λ-statistical limit points

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Authors: Shahrzad Maghsoodi, Hamid Reza Ranazi

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This paper is devoted to exploration of Chichak (hematite) deposit, using electrical resistivity, chargeability and statistical methods. Chichak hematite deposit is located in Chichak area west Azarbaijan, northwest of Iran. There are some outcrops of hematite bodies in the area. The goal of this study was to identify the depth, thickness and shape of these bodies and to explore other probabile hematite bodies. Therefore nine profiles were considered to be surveyed by RS and IP method by utilizing an innovative electrode array so called CRSP (Combined Resistivity Sounding and Profiling). IP and RS sections were completed along each profile. In addition, the RS and IP data were analyzed and relation between these two variables was determined by statistical tools. Finally, hematite bodies were identified in each of the sections. The results showed that hematite bodies have a resistivity lower than 125 Ωm and very low chargeability, lower than 8 mV⁄V. After geophysical study some points were proposed for drilling, results obtained from drilling confirm the geophysical results.

Keywords: Hematite deposit, Iron exploration, Electrical resistivity, Chargeability, Iran, Chichak, Statistical, CRSP electrodes array

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Authors: Wi-Sun Ryu, Eun-Kee Bae

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Prior studies have shown that patients with right hemispheric stroke are likely to seek medical service compared with those with left hemispheric stroke. However, the underlying mechanism for this phenomenon is unknown. In the present study, we generated lesion probability maps in a patient with right and left middle cerebral artery infarct and statistically compared. We found that precentral gyrus-Brodmann area 44, a language area in the left hemisphere - involvement was significantly higher in patients with left hemispheric stroke. This finding suggests that a language dysfunction was more noticeable, thereby taking more patients to hospitals.

Keywords: cerebral infarct, brain MRI, statistical parametric mapping, middle cerebral infarct

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Authors: Okolie Chukwulozie Paul, Iwenofu Chinwe Onyedika, Sinebe Jude Ebieladoh, M. C. Nwosu

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The research work is based on the statistical analysis of the processing data. The essence is to analyze the data statistically and to generate a design model for the production mix of soap manufacturing products in Bejoy manufacturing company Nkpologwu, Aguata Local Government Area, Anambra state, Nigeria. The statistical analysis shows the statistical analysis and the correlation of the data. T test, Partial correlation and bi-variate correlation were used to understand what the data portrays. The design model developed was used to model the data production yield and the correlation of the variables show that the R2 is 98.7%. However, the results confirm that the data is fit for further analysis and modeling. This was proved by the correlation and the R-squared.

Keywords: General Linear Model, correlation, variables, pearson, significance, T-test, soap, production mix and statistic

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Authors: Petros Roussos

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The present study focused on students' statistical reasoning related to Null Hypothesis Statistical Testing and p-values. Its objective was to test the hypothesis that neither the place (classroom, at a distance, online) nor the medium that actually supports the learning (ICT, internet, books) has an effect on understanding of statistical concepts. In addition, it was expected that students' attitudes towards statistics would not predict understanding of statistical concepts. The sample consisted of 385 undergraduate and postgraduate students from six state and private universities (five in Greece and one in Cyprus). Students were administered two questionnaires: a) the Greek version of the Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics, and b) a short instrument which measures students' understanding of statistical significance and p-values. Results suggest that attitudes towards statistics do not predict students' understanding of statistical concepts, whereas the medium did not have an effect.

Keywords: attitudes towards statistics, blended learning, e-learning, statistical reasoning

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Authors: Ashwani Kumar

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GPS plays an important role in everyday life for safe and convenient transportation. While pedestrians use hand held devices to know their position in a city, vehicles in intelligent transport systems use relatively sophisticated GPS receivers for estimating their current position. However, in urban areas where the GPS satellites are occluded by tall buildings, trees and reflections of GPS signals from nearby vehicles, GPS position estimation becomes poor. In this work, an exhaustive GPS data is collected at a single point in urban area under different times of day and under dynamic environmental conditions. The data is analyzed and statistical refinement methods are used to obtain optimal position estimate among all the measured positions. The results obtained are compared with publically available datasets and obtained position estimation refinement results are promising.

Keywords: global positioning system, statistical approach, intelligent transport systems, least squares estimation

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Authors: Neha Bhardwaj

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In this paper, we consider positive linear operators and study the Voronovskaya type result of the operator then obtain an error estimate in terms of the higher order modulus of continuity of the function being approximated and its A-statistical convergence. Also, we compute the corresponding rate of A-statistical convergence for the linear positive operators.

Keywords: Poisson distribution, Voronovskaya, modulus of continuity, a-statistical convergence

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Authors: Lukanda Kalobo

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In South Africa, the High School Mathematics Curriculum provides teachers with specific aims and skills to be developed which involves the understanding about the measures of central tendency. The exploration begins with the definitions of statistical literacy, measurement of central tendency and a discussion on why statistical literacy is essential today. It furthermore discusses the statistical literacy basics involved in understanding the concepts of measures of central tendency. The statistical literacy test on the measures of central tendency, was used to collect data which was administered to 78 first year students direct from high schools. The results indicated that students seemed to have forgotten about the statistical literacy in understanding the concepts of measure of central tendency after completing their high school study. The authors present inferences regarding the alignment between statistical literacy and the understanding of the concepts about the measures of central tendency, leading to the conclusion that there is a need to provide in-service and pre-service training.

Keywords: conceptual understanding, mean, median, mode, statistical literacy

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Authors: Wei Fang, Jian Jun Gu, Di Xue

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Objective: To analyze the employee compensation status of secondary public hospitals of Pudong New Area in Shanghai in order to provide information for compensation reform of public hospitals in Shanghai and as well as in China. Methods: We surveyed all 15 secondary public hospitals of Pudong New Area in Shanghai to collect hospital annual compensation data for their employees and to investigate their suggestions for compensation reform in public hospitals in China. We also collected related annual compensation data of employees in Shanghai and of physicians in the USA from Shanghai statistical Yearbook 2013 and from Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. Results: The average annual compensation for the employees in secondary public hospitals of Pudong New Area in Shanghai in 2012 was 2.65 times of that for overall employees in Shanghai. The physician’s compensation in these public hospitals was relatively lower than that in the USA. Conclusion: The physicians’ compensation in the secondary public hospitals of Pudong New Area in Shanghai should be increased rationally and new compensation reform in public hospitals in Shanghai should be carefully designed.

Keywords: human resource, compensation, public hospital, Shanghai

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Authors: Soumia Merat, Lynda Djerbal, Ramdane Bahar, Mohammed Amin Benbouras

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Along with shear wave, many soil parameters are associated with the standard penetration test (SPT) as a dynamic in situ experiment. Both SPT-N data and geophysical data do not often exist in the same area. Statistical analysis of correlation between these parameters is an alternate method to estimate Vₛ conveniently and without additional investigations or data acquisition. Shear wave velocity is a basic engineering tool required to define dynamic properties of soils. In many instances, engineers opt for empirical correlations between shear wave velocity (Vₛ) and reliable static field test data like standard penetration test (SPT) N value, CPT (Cone Penetration Test) values, etc., to estimate shear wave velocity or dynamic soil parameters. The relation between Vs and SPT- N values of Algiers area is predicted using the collected data, and it is also compared with the previously suggested formulas of Vₛ determination by measuring Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of each model. Algiers area is situated in high seismic zone (Zone III [RPA 2003: réglement parasismique algerien]), therefore the study is important for this region. The principal aim of this paper is to compare the field measurements of Down-hole test and the empirical models to show which one of these proposed formulas are applicable to predict and deduce shear wave velocity values.

Keywords: empirical models, RMSE, shear wave velocity, standard penetration test

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Authors: Abhishek Kumar

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X70 pipeline steel was electrochemically charged with hydrogen for different durations in order to find crack nucleation and propagation sites. After 3 hours charging, suitable regions for crack initiation and propagation were found. These regions were studied by OM, SEM, EDS and later Vicker hardness test was done. The results brought out that HIC cracks nucleated from regions rich of inclusions and further propagated through the segregation area of some elements, such as manganese, carbon, silicon and sulfur. It is worth-mentioning that all these potential sites for crack nucleation and propagation appeared at the centre of cross section of the specimens. Additionally, cracked area has harder phase than the non-cracked area which was confirmed by hardness test.

Keywords: X70 steel, morphology of inclusions, SEM/EDS/OM, simulation, statistical data

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Authors: Jianjia Wang, Tong Yu, Haoran Zhu, Kun Liu, Jinwei Hao

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The underlying pattern in the modern city is agglomeration. To some degree, the distribution of urban spatial density can be used to describe the status of this assemblage. There are three intrinsic characteristics to measure urban spatial density, namely, Floor Area Ratio (FAR), Building Coverage Ratio (BCR), and Average Storeys (AS). But the underlying mechanism that contributes to these quantities is still vague in the statistical urban study. In this paper, we explore the corresponding extrinsic factors related to spatial density. These factors can further provide the potential influence on the intrinsic quantities. Here, we take Shanghai Inner Ring Area and Manhattan in New York as examples to analyse the potential impacts on urban spatial density with six selected extrinsic elements. Ebery single factor presents the correlation to the spatial distribution, but the overall global impact of all is still implicit. To handle this issue, we attempt to develop the Boltzmann statistical model to explicitly explain the mechanism behind that. We derive a corresponding novel quantity, called capacity, to measure the global effects of all other extrinsic factors to the three intrinsic characteristics. The distribution of capacity presents a similar pattern to real measurements. This reveals the nonlinear influence on the multi-factor relations to the urban spatial density in agglomeration.

Keywords: urban spatial density, Boltzmann statistics, multi-factor correlation, spatial distribution

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Authors: Ewa Rusak, Sebastian Seget, Aleksandra Mroskowiak, Mirosław Partyka, Ewa Samulska, Julia Strózik, Anna Wilk, Przemysława Jarosz-Chobot

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Introduction: Various infections can affect children suffering from Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) because of dysfunctions of the immune system. The urinary tract and urethra of these children can be easily infected areas because of glycosuria. Aim: The microflora assessment of the urethra area of children with newly diagnosed T1D. Methods: The materials of the study were swabs taken prospectively from the urethral area of 63 children at the time of diagnosis of T1D (37 boys), then the results were correlated to the clinical parameters. In the statistical analysis, there were T student, Chi square, and U Mann-Whitney tests used. Results: The mean age was 9.4 years (6 months-17.4 years). The mean HbA1c value was 12.1% (5,6% - 20.1%). The mean value of glycosuria was 4463.2 mg/dl (0 - 9770 mg/dl). Ketoacidosis was diagnosed in 29 children (49%). The following microbial species were isolated in the collected materials: Staphylococcus epidermidis in 18 children (28.6%), Enterococcus faecalis in 17 children (27%), Candida albicans in 15 children (23.8%), coagulase-negative staphylococciin 11 children (17.5%), group B Streptococcus beta-hemolysis in 10 children (15.9%), S. aureus, E. coli, S. anginosus, C. glucuronolyticum, and A. urinae in 7 children each (11.1%), group B Streptococcus beta-hemolysis and S. hominis in 6 children each (9.5%), L. gasseri in 5 children (7.5%), C. dubliniensis in 4 children (6.3) and other, isolated cases. 2 of diagnosed patients were cultured negatively (3.2%). There were statistical correlations between the type of colonisation and patients’ sex and HbA1C value. Conclusions: It is extremely important to examine the urethral area at the time of diagnosis of T1D in order to detect inflammation and to undertake the appropriate and effective intervention.

Keywords: diabetology, skin disorders, microbiology, microflora

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Authors: N. C. Sarkar, A. Bhaskar, Z. Zheng

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The driving behavior in area-based (i.e., non-lane based) traffic is induced by the presence of other individuals in the choice space from the driver’s visual perception area. The driving behavior of a subject vehicle is constrained by the potential leaders and leaders are frequently changed over time. This paper is to determine a stochastic model for a parameter of modified intelligent driver model (MIDM) in area-based traffic (as in developing countries). The parametric and non-parametric distributions are presented to fit the parameters of MIDM. The goodness of fit for each parameter is measured in two different ways such as graphically and statistically. The quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot is used for a graphical representation of a theoretical distribution to model a parameter and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used for a statistical measure of fitness for a parameter with a theoretical distribution. The distributions are performed on a set of estimated parameters of MIDM. The parameters are estimated on the real vehicle trajectory data from India. The fitness of each parameter with a stochastic model is well represented. The results support the applicability of the proposed modeling for parameters of MIDM in area-based traffic flow simulation.

Keywords: area-based traffic, car-following model, micro-simulation, stochastic modeling

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Authors: Nasrine Olson

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With over 70,000 scholarly publications on the topic of biosensors, an overview of the field has become a challenge. To facilitate, there are currently over 700 expert-reviews of publications on biosensors and related topics. This study focuses on these review papers in order to provide a Meta-Review of the area. This paper provides a statistical analysis and overview of biosensor-related review papers. Comprehensive searches are conducted in the Web of Science, and PubMed databases and the resulting empirical material are analyzed using bibliometric methods and tools. The study finds that the biosensor-related review papers can be categorized in five related subgroups, broadly denoted by (i) properties of materials and particles, (ii) analysis and indicators, (iii) diagnostics, (iv) pollutant and analytical devices, and (v) treatment/ application. For an easy and clear access to the findings visualization of clusters and networks of connections are presented. The study includes a temporal dimension and identifies the trends over the years with an emphasis on the most recent developments. This paper provides useful insights for those who wish to form a better understanding of the research trends in the area of biosensors.

Keywords: bibliometrics, biosensors, meta-review, statistical analysis, trends visualization

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Authors: Vladimir S. Timofeev

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In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique, author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.

Keywords: characteristic function, distributional moments, robustness, outlier, statistical estimation problem, statistical simulation

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Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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The performance of wireless communication systems is affected mainly by the environment of its associated channel, which is characterized by dynamic and unpredictable behavior. In this paper, different statistical earth-satellite channel models are studied with emphasize on two main models, first is the Rice-Log normal model, due to its representation for the environment including shadowing and multi-path components that affect the propagated signal along its path, and a three-state model that take into account different fading conditions (clear area, moderate shadow and heavy shadowing). The provided models are based on AWGN, Rician, Rayleigh, and log-normal distributions were their Probability Density Functions (PDFs) are presented. The transmission system Bit Error Rate (BER), Peak-Average-Power Ratio (PAPR), and the channel capacity vs. fading models are measured and analyzed. These simulations are implemented using MATLAB tool, and the results had shown the performance of transmission system over different channel models.

Keywords: fading channels, MIMO communication, RNS scheme, statistical modeling

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Authors: Petar Sarajcev, Josip Vasilj, Damir Jakus

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This paper presents a novel statistical description of the counterpoise effective length due to lightning surges, where the (impulse) effective length had been obtained by means of regressive formulas applied to the transient simulation results. The effective length is described in terms of a statistical distribution function, from which median, mean, variance, and other parameters of interest could be readily obtained. The influence of lightning current amplitude, lightning front duration, and soil resistivity on the effective length has been accounted for, assuming statistical nature of these parameters. A method for determining the optimal counterpoise length, in terms of the statistical impulse effective length, is also presented. It is based on estimating the number of dangerous events associated with lightning strikes. Proposed statistical description and the associated method provide valuable information which could aid the design engineer in optimising physical lengths of counterpoises in different grounding arrangements and soil resistivity situations.

Keywords: counterpoise, grounding conductor, effective length, lightning, Monte Carlo method, statistical distribution

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Authors: Aziez Ouahiba, Remini Boualam, Habi Mohamed

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the growth and the development of a pay are strongly related to the existence or the absence of water in this area, The sedentary lifestyle of the population makes that water demand is increasing and the different brandishing (dams, tablecloths or other) are increasingly solicited. In normal time rain and snow of the winter period reloads the slicks and the wadis that fill dams. Over these two decades, global warming fact that temperature is increasingly high and rainfall is increasingly low which induces a charge less and less important tablecloths, add to that the strong demand in irrigation. Our study will focus on the variation of rainfall and irrigation, their effects on the degree of pollution of the groundwater in this area based on statistical analyses by the Xlstat (ACP, correlation...) software for a better explanation of these results and determine the hydrochemistry of different groups or polluted areas pou be able to offer adequate solutions for each area.

Keywords: rainfall, groundwater of mitidja, irrigation, pollution

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Authors: Aziez Ouahiba, Remini Boualem, Habi Mohamed

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The growth and the development of a pay are strongly related to the existence or the absence of water in this area, the sedentary lifestyle of the population makes that water demand is increasing and the different brandishing (dams, tablecloths or other) are increasingly solicited. In normal time rain and snow of the winter period reloads the slicks and the wadis that fill dams. Over these two decades, Global warming fact that temperature is increasingly high and rainfall is increasingly low, which induces a charge less and less important tablecloths, add to that the strong demand in irrigation. Our study will focus on the variation of rainfall and irrigation, Their effects on the degree of pollution of the groundwater in this area based on statistical analyses by the Xlstat (ACP, correlation...) software for a better explanation of these results and determine the hydrochemistry of different groups or polluted areas pou be able to offer adequate solutions for each area.

Keywords: water in the basement, legislation, over exploitation, pollution, water prices

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Authors: Gulsen Yilmaz

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Istanbul’s population has jumped by over 1 million in the past four years, to a level surpassing the overall population of 64 provinces in the country, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). In this paper, Istanbul's population change and migration effects can be examined in detail Tarlabasi neighborhood cultural center of the city of Istanbul, Istiklal Street, which is located a few hundred meters away. Tarlabasi the end of the nineteenth century in the historic district with built in the early twentieth century, there are four or five storey historic buildings. Tarlabasi, here come from southeastern Turkey and the illegal African immigrants living in Roma origin by the Kurds as a residential area is used. In this area to improve the quality of life for urban renewal projects have been initiated. The aim of this paper is to explore the spatial effects of demographic change and migration with Tarlabasi example.

Keywords: migration, immigration, Tarlabaşı, urban transformation

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

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Authors: Nneka M. Chidieber-Mark, Roseline D. Ejike

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Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) have been described as all biological materials, other than timber extracted from natural and managed forests for human subsistence and economic activities. This study focused on the production, utilization and marketing of Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) in Ikwuano Local Government Area of Abia State, Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was adopted in the selection of respondents for the study. Data were from primary sources only. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistical tools as well as Net Income Analysis. Results show that a vast number of plant based and animal based NTFPs exist in the study area. They are harvested and used for multiple purposes. NTFPs are a source of income for the indigenes that depend on it for their livelihood. Unsustainable production and harvesting as well as poor marketing information was among the constraints impeding the growth and development of NTFPs sub-sector in the study area.

Keywords: non-timber forest products, production, utilization, marketing

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Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

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Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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Authors: Rishikesh Yadav, Ramakanta Meher, Vishnu Narayan Mishra

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The main aim of this article is to investigate the statistical convergence of the summation of integral type operators and to obtain the weighted statistical convergence. The rate of statistical convergence by means of modulus of continuity and function belonging to the Lipschitz class are also studied. We discuss the convergence of the defined operators by graphical representation and put a better rate of convergence than the Szasz-Mirakjan-Kantorovich operators. In the last section, we extend said operators into bivariate operators to study about the rate of convergence in sense of modulus of continuity and by means of Lipschitz class by using function of two variables.

Keywords: The Szasz-Mirakjan-Kantorovich operators, statistical convergence, modulus of continuity, Peeters K-functional, weighted modulus of continuity

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Authors: T. A. Adesiyan, J. A. Adekoya A. Akinlua, N. Torto

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One hundred and eighty six in situ soil samples of the B–horizon were collected around Gbongan–Odeyinka-Orileowu area, southwestern Nigeria, delineated by longitude 4°15l and 4°30l and latitude 7°14l and 7°31 for a reconnaissance geochemical soil survey. The objective was to determine the distribution pattern of some trace metals in the area with a view to discovering any indication of metallic mineralization. The samples were air–dried and sieved to obtain the minus 230 µ fractions which were used for pH determinations and subjected to hot aqua regia acid digestion. The solutions obtained were analyzed for Ag, As, Au, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sn, and Zn using atomic absorption spectrometric methods. The resulting data were subjected to simple statistical treatment and used in preparing distribution maps of the elements. With these, the spatial distributions of the elements in the area were discussed. The pH of the soils range from 4.70 to 7.59 and this reflects the geochemical distribution patterns of trace metals in the area. The spatial distribution maps of the elements showed similarity in the distributions of Co, Cr, Fe, Ni, Mn and Pb. This suggests close associations between these elements none of which showed any significant anomaly in the study. The associations might be due to the scavenging actions of Fe–Mn oxides on the elements. Only Ag, Au and Sn on one hand and Zn on the other hand showed significant anomalies, which are thought to be due to mineralization and anthropogenic activities respectively.

Keywords: distribution, metals, Gbongan, Nigeria, mineralization anthropogenic

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Authors: Girish Chavadappanavar

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The impact of climate on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends. In the present study, the development of a statistical yield forecast model has been carried out for sugarcane production over Belagavi district, Karnataka using weather variables of crop growing season and past observed yield data for the period of 1971 to 2010. The study shows that this type of statistical yield forecast model could efficiently forecast yield 5 weeks and even 10 weeks in advance of the harvest for sugarcane within an acceptable limit of error. The performance of the model in predicting yields at the district level for sugarcane crops is found quite satisfactory for both validation (2007 and 2008) as well as forecasting (2009 and 2010).In addition to the above study, the climate variability of the area has also been studied, and hence, the data series was tested for Mann Kendall Rank Statistical Test. The maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be significant with opposite trends (decreasing trend in maximum and increasing in minimum temperature), while the other three are found in significant with different trends (rainfall and evening time relative humidity with increasing trend and morning time relative humidity with decreasing trend).

Keywords: climate impact, regression analysis, yield and forecast model, sugar models

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Authors: Sisuwan Kaseamsawat, Sivapan Choo-In

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A study was conducted in May to July 2013 with the aim of determination of heavy metal concentration in orchard area. 60 samples were collected and analyzed for Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), Lead (Pb), and Zinc (Zn) by Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS). The heavy metal concentrations in sediment of orchards, that use chemical for Cd (1.13 ± 0.26 mg/l), Cu (8.00 ± 1.05 mg/l), Pb (13.16 ± 2.01) and Zn (37.41 ± 3.20 mg/l). The heavy metal concentrations in sediment of the orchards, that do not use chemical for Cd (1.28 ± 0.50 mg/l), Cu (7.60 ± 1.20 mg/l), Pb (29.87 ± 4.88) and Zn (21.79 ± 2.98 mg/l). Statistical analysis between heavy metal in sediment from the orchard, that use chemical and the orchard, that not use chemical were difference statistic significant of 0.5 level of significant for Cd and Pb while no statistically difference for Cu and Zn.

Keywords: heavy metal, orchard, pollution and monitoring, sediment

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