Search results for: mortality in intensive care

Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

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Authors: Suppawan Lertpongpakpoom, Anongnat Boonrat, Kunya BoontummoSuppawan

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This descriptive cost analysis aimed to analyze the unit cost of patients in medical intensive care unit. Purposive sampling was used to select 20 nurses, 6 practical nurses, 5 nurses aid and select samples 30 patients. Data were collected from both primary source (activity and average time of nursing care) and secondary source Z bill of payment and patient record). Instruments were cost recording form, activity observation form, and service recording form. Content validity of all instruments were evaluated by three experts (CVI = 0.87). Descriptive statistics was employed for data analysis. The results of the Activity-Based Costing Analysis showed that total activity cost of 4 service types for the patients was 14,776.92 Bath. The highest cost was nursing record was 5,674.78 Bath, followed direct nursing activity was 5,176.18 Bath, medical treatment was 1,976.6 Bath. The lowest cost was management activity was 1,003.64 Bath per visit. The result suggested that Activity-Base Costing Analysis could be applied to give better understanding of cost structure, enabling better consideration wasted expense and non-value-added activity, and improvement of effective utilization.

Keywords: activity-based costing, medical intensive care, nursing care, cost analysis

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Authors: Yi-Fung Lin, Shiow-Ching Shun, Wen-Yu Hu

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Background: A skill mix model is regarded as one of the most effective methods of reducing nursing shortages, as well as easing nursing staff workloads and labor costs. Although this model shows several benefits for the health workforce, the relationship between the optimal model of skill mix and the patient mortality rate remains to be discovered. Objectives: This review aimed to explore the relationship between the skill mix model and patient mortality rate in acute care hospitals. Data Sources: A systematic search of the PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases and researchers retrieved studies published between January 1986 and March 2022. Review methods: Two independent reviewers screened the titles and abstracts based on selection criteria, extracted the data, and performed critical appraisals using the STROBE checklist of each included study. The studies focused on adult patients in acute care hospitals, and the skill mix model and patient mortality rate were included in the analysis. Results: Six included studies were conducted in the USA, Canada, Italy, Taiwan, and European countries (Belgium, England, Finland, Ireland, Spain, and Switzerland), including patients in medical, surgical, and intensive care units. There were both nurses and nursing assistants in their skill mix team. This main finding is that three studies (324,592 participants) show evidence of fewer mortality rates associated with hospitals with a higher percentage of registered nurse staff (range percentage of registered nurse staff 36.1%-100%), but three articles (1,122,270 participants) did not find the same result (range of percentage of registered nurse staff 46%-96%). However, based on appraisal findings, those showing a significant association all meet good quality standards, but only one-third of their counterparts. Conclusions: In light of the limited amount and quality of published research in this review, it is prudent to treat the findings with caution. Although the evidence is not insufficient certainty to draw conclusions about the relationship between nurse staffing level and patients' mortality, this review lights the direction of relevant studies in the future. The limitation of this article is the variation in skill mix models among countries and institutions, making it impossible to do a meta-analysis to compare them further.

Keywords: nurse staffing level, nursing assistants, mortality, skill mix

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Authors: Jiranun Sreecharit, Anongnat Boonrut, Kunvadee Munvaradee, Phechnoy Singchungchai

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Hatyai Hospital as center of hospital with a capacity of 670 beds. Medicine intensive care units (MICU240) provide care for critically ill patients who are at high risk need to be monitored closely. Intravenous catheter is vital to help assess the level of water in the body fluids and medications. Potential complications such as infection. We need to have guidelines for the care of patients who received intravenous catheter used to achieve good results. The operations research in this study was intended 1) To study the effects of practice for nurses in caring for patients with central venous catheter to infection rate and 2) To assess the satisfaction of nurses and patient care practices in central venous catheterization patients in the MICU 240. The sample of the patient's central venous catheter crisis that everyone who admitted in MICU 240 during the period from October 2013 to May 2014. Samples prior to practice and 148 samples with 249 case of practice. A systematic review of the research NSWHealth Statewide Guideline for Intensive Care. Data were analyzed by statistics, percentages and frequency NON-PARAMETRICS with Mann-Whitney U. The finding revealed that: 1. Results of the practice patient care central venous catheter infection rates were found to be reduced from 35.14 percent to 25.3 percent. 2. The results of the evaluation of nurses and patients in the patient care practices central venous catheter found to be satisfied and happy to work 85 percent.

Keywords: clinical practice guidelines, central venous catheter, infection satisfaction

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Authors: Chinelo Igwenagu

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Teenage childbearing in developing countries has been a thing of great concern as it has often led to a number of socioeconomic problems both to the society and to the families affected. The outcome of teenage pregnancy has been generally associated with higher rates of maternal morbidity and mortality, greater risks for delivery complications, low-birth weight infants and child mortality. As a result of teenagers’ physiological and social immaturity and their lack of adequate prenatal care, health risks associated with their pregnancies and childbearing are more pronounced than those of older women. Therefore this study has examined the relationship between the age of teenagers and the outcome of teenage pregnancy. Based on this study, the result of the analysis shows that both teenagers and older mothers suffer similarly during child bearing. Hence improve medical care is paramount in all the situations.

Keywords: childbearing, mortality, Nigeria, pregnancy, prematurity, teenagers

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Authors: Thoetchai Peeraphatdit, Peter A. Brady, Suraj Kapa, Samuel J. Asirvatham, Niyada Naksuk

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Background: Serum electrolyte abnormalities are a common cause of an acquired prolonged QT syndrome, especially, in the coronary care unit (CCU) setting. Optimal electrolyte ranges among the CCU patients have not been sufficiently investigated. Methods: We identified 8,498 consecutive CCU patients who were admitted to the CCU at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, the USA, from 2004 through 2013. Association between first serum electrolytes and baseline corrected QT intervals (QTc), as well as in-hospital mortality, was tested using multivariate linear regression and logistic regression, respectively. Serum potassium 4.0- < 4.5 mEq/L, ionized calcium (iCa) 4.6-4.8 mg/dL, and magnesium 2.0- < 2.2 mg/dL were used as the reference levels. Results: There was a modest level-dependent relationship between hypokalemia ( < 4.0 mEq/L), hypocalcemia ( < 4.4 mg/dL), and a prolonged QTc interval; serum magnesium did not affect the QTc interval. Association between the serum electrolytes and in-hospital mortality included a U-shaped relationship for serum potassium (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.53 and OR 1.91for serum potassium 4.5- < 5.0 and ≥ 5.0 mEq/L, respectively) and an inverted J-shaped relationship for iCa (adjusted OR 2.79 and OR 2.03 for calcium < 4.4 and 4.4- < 4.6 mg/dL, respectively). For serum magnesium, the mortality was greater only among patients with levels ≥ 2.4 mg/dL (adjusted OR 1.40), compared to the reference level. Findings were similar in sensitivity analyses examining the association between mean serum electrolytes and mean QTc intervals, as well as in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: Serum potassium 4.0- < 4.5 mEq/L, iCa ≥ 4.6 mg/dL, and magnesium < 2.4 mg/dL had a neutral effect on QTc intervals and were associated with the lowest in-hospital mortality among the CCU patients.

Keywords: calcium, electrocardiography, long-QT syndrome, magnesium, mortality, potassium

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Authors: Işın Alkan, Meltem Kürtüncü

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Objective: This study was carried out with an experimental design in order to determine whether the lullaby, which was listened from mother’s voice and a stranger’s voice to the babies born at term and hospitalized in neonatal intensive care unit, had an effect on saturation values (SpO2), peak heart rate (PHR), respiration, fever, growth and development and hospitalization times of the infants. Method: Data from the study were obtained from 90 newborn babies who were hospitalized in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Zonguldak Maternity And Children Hospital between September 2015-January 2016 and who met the eligibility criteria. Lullaby concert was performed by choosing one of the suitable care hours. SpO2, PHR, respiration, fever, growth and development and hospitalization times of the infants were recorded by the researcher on “Newborn response follow-up form” at pre-care and post-care. Vital signs of babies every day, weight, height and head circumference measurements at admission, weakly rated at an output. Results: In the experimental and control groups, like weight, height and head circumference anthropometric measurements were not found statistically significant difference intensive care units admission and output times. Hospitalization times on babies who listen to lullaby mother’s voice revealed statistically significant difference according to babies who listen to lullaby stranger’s voice. Before care and after care were examined, SpO2 rates of babies who listen to lullaby mother’s voice revealed statistically significant higher difference according to babies who listen to lullaby stranger’s voice and control group babies. Before care on PHR of babies in three groups were not found the statistical difference, but aftercare, it was found that statistically lower (normal range) on babies who listen to lullaby mother’s voice according to babies who listen to lullaby stranger’s voice. Before care in three groups were not found the statistical difference on respiration values of babies, but aftercare, it was found that statistically lower (normal range) on babies who listen to lullaby stranger’s voice according to babies who listen to mother’s voice and control groups. Before care and after care were examined, fever signs did not reveal statistically significant difference in three groups. Conclusion: Lullaby concerts as being normal ranges of vital signs of infants and also helping to shorten hospitalization times should be preferred in the neonatal intensive care units.

Keywords: growth and development, lullaby, mother voice, vital signs

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Authors: James D. Beauchemin

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This study tested whether youth mental health care quality, operationalized as the extent to which youth and families experienced system-of-care principles in service interactions with providers, varied by level of youth need after adjusting for sociodemographic and treatment factors. The relationship of quality to clinical outcomes was also examined. Using administrative data and cross-sectional surveys from a stratified random sample of 1,124 caregivers of youths ages 5 to 20 within a statewide system-of-care, adjusted analyses indicated youths with the most intensive needs were significantly less likely to experience high-quality care (51% vs. 63%, p=0.016), with marked deficits on 6 of 9 items. Receipt of lower-quality care predicted less improvement in youth functioning. Despite considerable effort to develop systems-of-care for youths with the most severe mental health needs, these data suggest quality disparities remain for the most impaired youths. Policy and intervention development may be needed to improve the quality of care for this population.

Keywords: system-of-care, adherence, mental health, youth

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Authors: Nabaweesi Josephine, Namwanje Regina Germina

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Antenatal care is referred to as the totality of care given to pregnant women from conception to delivery from a certified health care setting. A number of 8 contacts is recommended throughout pregnancy, according to WHO, 2016. Antenatal services are free in Uganda courtesy of the government of Uganda, though attendance is still very low, which has continued to cause maternal and infant mortality and morbidity from preventable causes. Early booking has an advantage for proper pregnancy information sharing and pregnancy monitoring. The purpose of this study was to determine pregnant women's knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards attendance of antenatal care at Mukono General Hospital. A sample of 60 pregnant women was used, and a descriptive quantitative design was employed. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire consisting of questions about socio-demographic factors, knowledge, attitude, and practice, and this was affected using the structured interview method. Pregnant women had good practice at 90.2%, a positive attitude of 94.6%, and slightly less knowledge of 66.7%. Only 12% were knowledgeable about the number of antenatal care visits recommended, 45% had knowledge about when to initiate first antenatal care visit, and 79% had a positive attitude towards the early booking. We recommend that pregnant women are given all the necessary information regarding antenatal care with special emphasis on the recommended number of visits and when to initiate their first visit and encourage early booking in order to achieve the 8 contacts WHO policy for antenatal care since when we increase knowledge, we increase antenatal care utilization according to Anderson's behavioral model.

Keywords: ANC- antenatal care, contacts, mortality, morbidity

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Authors: Pei Yi Lin

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Objective: The objective of this study is to use machine learning methods to build an early prediction classifier model for acute delirium to improve the quality of medical care for intensive care patients. Background: Delirium is a common acute and sudden disturbance of consciousness in critically ill patients. After the occurrence, it is easy to prolong the length of hospital stay and increase medical costs and mortality. In 2021, the incidence of delirium in the intensive care unit of internal medicine was as high as 59.78%, which indirectly prolonged the average length of hospital stay by 8.28 days, and the mortality rate is about 2.22% in the past three years. Therefore, it is expected to build a delirium prediction classifier through big data analysis and machine learning methods to detect delirium early. Method: This study is a retrospective study, using the artificial intelligence big data database to extract the characteristic factors related to delirium in intensive care unit patients and let the machine learn. The study included patients aged over 20 years old who were admitted to the intensive care unit between May 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, excluding GCS assessment <4 points, admission to ICU for less than 24 hours, and CAM-ICU evaluation. The CAMICU delirium assessment results every 8 hours within 30 days of hospitalization are regarded as an event, and the cumulative data from ICU admission to the prediction time point are extracted to predict the possibility of delirium occurring in the next 8 hours, and collect a total of 63,754 research case data, extract 12 feature selections to train the model, including age, sex, average ICU stay hours, visual and auditory abnormalities, RASS assessment score, APACHE-II Score score, number of invasive catheters indwelling, restraint and sedative and hypnotic drugs. Through feature data cleaning, processing and KNN interpolation method supplementation, a total of 54595 research case events were extracted to provide machine learning model analysis, using the research events from May 01 to November 30, 2022, as the model training data, 80% of which is the training set for model training, and 20% for the internal verification of the verification set, and then from December 01 to December 2022 The CU research event on the 31st is an external verification set data, and finally the model inference and performance evaluation are performed, and then the model has trained again by adjusting the model parameters. Results: In this study, XG Boost, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Decision Tree were used to analyze and compare four machine learning models. The average accuracy rate of internal verification was highest in Random Forest (AUC=0.86), and the average accuracy rate of external verification was in Random Forest and XG Boost was the highest, AUC was 0.86, and the average accuracy of cross-validation was the highest in Random Forest (ACC=0.77). Conclusion: Clinically, medical staff usually conduct CAM-ICU assessments at the bedside of critically ill patients in clinical practice, but there is a lack of machine learning classification methods to assist ICU patients in real-time assessment, resulting in the inability to provide more objective and continuous monitoring data to assist Clinical staff can more accurately identify and predict the occurrence of delirium in patients. It is hoped that the development and construction of predictive models through machine learning can predict delirium early and immediately, make clinical decisions at the best time, and cooperate with PADIS delirium care measures to provide individualized non-drug interventional care measures to maintain patient safety, and then Improve the quality of care.

Keywords: critically ill patients, machine learning methods, delirium prediction, classifier model

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Authors: Nurunnahar Akter, Elena Kulinskaya, Nicholas Steel, Ilyas Bakbergenuly

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Although Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) is an effective treatment in ameliorating menopausal symptoms, it has mixed effects on different health outcomes, increasing, for instance, the risk of breast cancer. Because of this, many symptomatic women are left untreated. Untreated menopausal symptoms may result in other health issues, which eventually put an extra burden and costs to the health care system. All-cause mortality analysis may explain the net benefits and risks of the HRT therapy. However, it received far less attention in HRT studies. This study investigated the impact of HRT on all-cause mortality using electronically recorded primary care data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) that broadly represents the female population in the United Kingdom (UK). The study entry date for this study was the record of the first HRT prescription from 1984, and patients were followed up until death or transfer to another GP practice or study end date, which was January 2017. 112,354 HRT users (cases) were matched with 245,320 non-users by age at HRT initiation and general practice (GP). The hazards of all-cause mortality associated with HRT were estimated by a parametric Weibull-Cox model adjusting for a wide range of important medical, lifestyle, and socio-demographic factors. The multilevel multiple imputation techniques were used to deal with missing data. This study found that during 32 years of follow-up, combined HRT reduced the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality by 9% (HR: 0.91; 95% Confidence Interval, 0.88-0.94) in women of age between 46 to 65 at first treatment compared to the non-users of the same age. Age-specific mortality analyses found that combined HRT decreased mortality by 13% (HR: 0.87; 95% CI, 0.82-0.92), 12% (HR: 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.93), and 8% (HR: 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-0.98), in 51 to 55, 56 to 60, and 61 to 65 age group at first treatment, respectively. There was no association between estrogen-only HRT and women’s all-cause mortality. The findings from this study may help to inform the choices of women at menopause and to further educate the clinicians and resource planners.

Keywords: hormone replacement therapy, multiple imputations, primary care data, the health improvement network (THIN)

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Authors: Nabiha Bouafia, Asma Ben Cheikh, Asma Ammar, Olfa Ezzi, Mohamed Mahjoub, Khaoula Meddeb, Imed Chouchene, Hamadi Boussarsar, Mansour Njah

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Background: Hospital acquired infections (HAI) cause significant morbidity, mortality, length of stay and hospital costs, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), because of the debilitated immune systems of their patients and exposure to invasive devices. The aims of this study were to determine the rate and the risk factors of HAI in an ICU of a university hospital in Tunisia. Materials/Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the 8-bed adult medical ICU of a University Hospital (Sousse Tunisia) during 14 months from September 15th, 2015 to November 15th, 2016. Patients admitted for more than 48h were included. Their surveillance was stopped after the discharge from ICU or death. HAIs were defined according to standard Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: During the study, 192 patients had admitted for more than 48 hours. Their mean age was 59.3± 18.20 years and 57.1% were male. Acute respiratory failure was the main reason of admission (72%). The mean SAPS II score calculated at admission was 32.5 ± 14 (range: 6 - 78). The exposure to the mechanical ventilation (MV) and the central venous catheter were observed in 169 (88 %) and 144 (75 %) patients, respectively. Seventy-three patients (38.02%) developed 94 HAIs. The incidence density of HAIs was 41.53 per 1000 patient day. Mortality rate in patients with HAIs was 65.8 %( n= 48). Regarding the type of infection, Ventilator Associated Pneumoniae (VAP) and central venous catheter Associated Infections (CVC AI) were the most frequent with Incidence density: 14.88/1000 days of MV for VAP and 20.02/1000 CVC days for CVC AI. There were 5 Peripheral Venous Catheter Associated Infections, 2 urinary tract infections, and 21 other HAIs. Gram-negative bacteria were the most common germs identified in HAIs: Multidrug resistant Acinetobacter Baumanii (45%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (10.96%) were the most frequently isolated. Univariate analysis showed that transfer from another hospital department (p= 0.001), intubation (p < 10-4), tracheostomy (p < 10-4), age (p=0.028), grade of acute respiratory failure (p=0.01), duration of sedation (p < 10-4), number of CVC (p < 10-4), length of mechanical ventilation (p < 10-4) and length of stay (p < 10-4), were associated to high risk of HAIS in ICU. Multivariate analysis reveals that independent risk factors for HAIs are: transfer from another hospital department: OR=13.44, IC 95% [3.9, 44.2], p < 10-4, duration of sedation: OR= 1.18, IC 95% [1.049, 1.325], p=0.006, high number of CVC: OR=2.78, IC 95% [1.73, 4.487], p < 10-4, and length of stay in ICU: OR= 1.14, IC 95% [1.066,1.22], p < 10-4. Conclusion: Prevention of nosocomial infections in ICUs is a priority of health care systems all around the world. Yet, their control requires an understanding of epidemiological data collected in these units.

Keywords: healthcare associated infections, incidence, intensive care unit, risk factors

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Authors: Özlem Canbolat, Sevgisun Kapucu

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The aim of this study was to determine the effect of a computer-assisted glycemic surveillance protocol on nursing workload in intensive care unit. The study is completed in an Education and Research Hospital in Ankara with the attendance of volunteered 19 nurse who had been worked in reanimation unit. Nurses used the written protocol and computer-assisted glycemic surveillance protocol for glycemic follow-up approach of the intensive care patients. Nurses used the written protocol first in the glycemic follow-up of the patient, then used the computer-assisted protocol. (Nurses used the written protocol first, then the computer-assisted protocol in the glycemic follow-up of the patient). Less time was spent in glycemic control with computerized protocol than written protocol and this difference is statistically significant (p < 0.001). It was determined that the computerized protocol application was completed in about 10 seconds (25% shorter) than the written protocol implementation. The computer-assisted glycemic surveillance protocol was found to be more easy and appropriate by nurses and the satisfaction level of the users was higher than with written protocol. While 79% of the nurses find it confusing to implement the written protocol, 79% were satisfied with the use of computerized protocol.

Keywords: computer-assisted protocol, glycemic control, insulin infusion protocol, intensive care, nursing workload

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Authors: Wen Hsin Hsu, Pin Lin

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Objective: Thirst discomfort is the most common yet often overlooked symptom in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), with an incidence rate of 69.8%. If not properly cared for, it can easily lead to irritability, affect sleep quality, and increase the incidence of delirium, thereby extending the length of hospital stay. Research points out that the sensation of coldness is an effective strategy to alleviate thirst. Using a combined care approach for thirst can prolong the sensation of coldness in the mouth and reduce thirst discomfort. Therefore, it needs to be further analyzed and its effectiveness reviewed. Methods: This study uses systematic literature review and meta-analysis methodologies and searched databases including PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, CINAHL, and two Chinese databases (CEPS and CJTD) based on keywords. JBI was used to appraise the quality of the literature. RevMen 5.4 software package was used, and Fix Effect Model was applied for data analysis. We selected experimental articles, including those in English and Chinese, that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Three research articles were included in total, with a sample size of 416 people. Two were randomized controlled trials, and one was a quasi-experimental design. Results: The results show that the combined care for thirst, which includes ice water spray or oral swab wipes, menthol mouthwash, and lip balm, can significantly relieve thirst intensity MD=-1.36 (3 studies, 95% CI (-1.77, -0.95), p <0.001) and thirst distress MD=-0.71 (2 studies, 95% CI (-1.32, -0.10), p =0.02). Therefore, it is recommended that medical staff identify high-risk groups for thirst early on. Implications for Practice: For patients who cannot eat orally, providing combined care for thirst can increase oral comfort and improve the quality of care.

Keywords: thirst bundle care, intensive care units, meta-analysis, ice water spray, menthol

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Authors: Ammar Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ben Cheikh Asma, Ezzi Olfa, Mahjoub Mohamed, Sma Nesrine, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

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Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is currently recognized as one of the most relevant causes of morbidity and mortality among intensive care unit (ICU) patients worldwide. Identifying modifiable risk factors for VAP could be helpful for future controlled interventional studies aiming at improving prevention of VAP. The purposes of this study were to determine the incidence and risk factors for VAP in in a Tunisian medical ICU. Materials / Methods: A retrospective case-control study design based on the prospective database collected over a 14-month period from September 15th, 2015 through November 15th, 2016 in an 8-bed medical ICU. Patients under ventilation for over 48 h were included. The number of cases was estimated by Epi-info Software with the power of statistical test equal to 90 %. Each case patient was successfully matched to two controls according to the length of mechanical ventilation (MV) before VAP for cases and the total length of MV in controls. VAP in the ICU was defined according to American Thoracic Society; Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines. Early onset or late-onset VAP were defined whether the infectious process occurred within or after 96 h of ICU admission. Patients’ risk factors, causes of admission, comorbidities and respiratory specimens collected were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine variables associated with VAP with a p-value < 0.05. Results: During the period study, a total of 169 patients under mechanical ventilation were considered, 34 patients (20.11%) developed at least one episode of VAP in the ICU. The incidence rate for VAP was 14.88/1000 ventilation days. Among these cases, 9 (26.5 %) were early-onset VAP and 25 (73.5 %) were late-onset VAP. It was a certain diagnosis in 66.7% of cases. Tracheal aspiration was positive in 80% of cases. Multi-drug resistant Acinerobacter baumanii was the most common species detected in cases; 67.64% (n=23). The rate of mortality out of cases was 88.23% (n= 30). In univariate analysis, the patients with VAP were statistically more likely to suffer from cardiovascular diseases (p=0.035) and prolonged duration of sedation (p=0.009) and tracheostomy (p=0.001), they also had a higher number of re-intubation (p=0.017) and a longer total time of intubation (p=0.012). Multivariate analysis showed that cardiovascular diseases (OR= 4.44; 95% IC= [1.3 - 14]; p=0.016), tracheostomy (OR= 4.2; 95% IC= [1.16 -15.12]; p= 0.028) and prolonged duration of sedation (OR=1.21; 95% IC= [1.07, 1.36]; p=0.002) were independent risk factors for the development of VAP. Conclusion: VAP constitutes a therapeutic challenge in an ICU setting, therefore; strategies that effectively prevent VAP are needed. An infection control-training program intended to all professional heath care in this unit insisting on bundles and elaboration of procedures are planned to reduce effectively incidence rate of VAP.

Keywords: case control study, intensive care unit, risk factors, ventilator associated pneumonia

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Authors: M. Deligianni, P. Voultsos, E. Tsamadou

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Background/Introduction: Moral distress is a common occurrence for health professionals working in neonatal critical care. Despite a growing number of critically ill neonatal and pediatric patients, only a few articles related to moral distress as experienced by neonatal physicians have been published over the last years. Objectives/Aims: The aim of this study was to define and identify barriers to and facilitators of moral distress based on the perceptions and experiences of neonatal physicians working in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). This pilot study is a part of a larger nationwide project. Methods: A multicenter qualitative descriptive study using focus group methodology was conducted. In-depth interviews lasting 45 to 60 minutes were audio-recorded. Once data were transcribed, conventional content analysis was used to develop the definition and categories, as well as to identify the barriers to and facilitators of moral distress. Results: Participants defined moral distress broadly in the context of neonatal critical care. A wide variation of definitions was displayed. The physicians' responses to moral distress included different feelings and other situations. The overarching categories that emerged from the data were patient-related, family-related, and physician-related factors. Moreover, organizational factors may constitute major facilitators of moral distress among neonatal physicians in NICUs. Note, however, that moral distress may be regarded as an essential component to caring for neonates in critical care. The present study provides further insight into the moral distress experienced by physicians working in Greek NICUs. Discussion/Conclusions: Understanding how neonatal and pediatric critical care nurses define moral distress and what contributes to its development is foundational to developing targeted strategies for mitigating the prevalence of moral distress among neonate physicians in the context of NICUs.

Keywords: critical care, moral distress, neonatal physician, neonatal intensive care unit, NICU

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Authors: Narendra Kumar

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This study uses data from the ‘National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) 2005-06’ to investigate the predictors of infant and child mortality among low economic households in East and Northeast region. The cross tabulation, life table survival estimates and Cox proportional hazard model techniques have been used to estimate the predictors of infant and child mortality. The life table survival estimates for infant and child mortality shows that infant mortality in female child is lower in comparison to male child but with child mortality, the rates are higher for female in comparison to male child and the Cox proportional hazard model also give highly significant in female in comparison to male child. The infant and child mortality rates among poor households highest in the Central region followed by North and Northeast region and the lowest in South region in comparison to all regions of India. Education of respondent has been found a significant characteristics in both analyzes, further birth interval, respondent occupation, caste/tribe and place of delivery has substantial impact on infant and child mortality among low economic households in East and Northeast region. Finally these findings specified that an increase in parents’ education, improve health care services and improve socioeconomic conditions of low economic households which should in turn raise infant and child survival and should decrease child mortality among low economic households in India.

Keywords: infant, child, mortality, socio-economic, India

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Authors: Yi-Jiun Chou, Ying-Hsuan Li, Yi-Jung Liu, Hsin-Yu Chiang, Hsuan-Ching Wang

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Background: Patients received therapeutic hypothermia (TH) after resuscitation from cardiac arrest are more dependent on continue and intensive nursing care. It involves many difficult steps, especially achieving target body temperature. To our best knowledge, there is no consensus or recommended standards on nursing practice of TH. Aim: The aim of this study is to increase the completion rate of nursing care at therapeutic hypothermia. Methods: We took five measures: (1) Amendment of nursing standards of therapeutic hypothermia; (2) Amendment of TH checklist items to nursing records; (3) Establishment of monitor procedure; (4) Design each period of TH care reminder cards; (5) Providing in-service training sections of TH for ICU nursing staff. Outcomes: The completion rate of nursing care at therapeutic hypothermia increased from 78.1% to 89.3%. Conclusion: The project team not only increased the completion rate but also improved patient safety and quality of care.

Keywords: therapeutic hypothermia, nursing, critical care, quality of care

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Authors: E. M. Vieira, C. S. Vieira, L. P. Bonifácio, L. M. de Oliveira Ciabati, A. C. A. Franzon, F. S. Zaratini, J. A. C. Sanchez, M. S. Andrade, J. P. Dias de Souza

Abstract:

The quality of prenatal care is key to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. Communication between the health service and users can stimulate prevention and care. M-health has been an important and low cost strategy to health education. The PRENACEL programme (prenatal in the cell phone) was developed. It consists of a programme of information via SMS from the 20^th week of pregnancy up to 12^th week after delivery. Messages were about prenatal care, birth, contraception and breastfeeding. Communication of the pregnant woman asking questions about their health was possible. The objective of this study was to evaluate the implementation of PRENACEL as a useful complement to the standard prenatal care. Twenty health clinics were selected and randomized by cluster, 10 as the intervention group and 10 as the control group. In the intervention group, women and their partner were invited to participate. The control group received the standard prenatal care. All women were interviewed in the immediate post-partum and in the 12^th and 24^th week post-partum. Most women were married, had more than 8 years of schooling and visit the clinic more than 6 times during prenatal care. The intervention group presented lowest percentage of higher economic participants (5.6%), less single mothers and no drug user. It also presented more prenatal care visits than the control group and it was less likely to present Severe Acute Maternal Mortality when compared to control group as well as higher percentage of partners (75.4%) was present at the birth compared to control group. Although the study is still being carried out, preliminary data are showing positive results of the compliance of women to prenatal care.

Keywords: cellphone, health technology, prenatal care, prevention

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Authors: Auni Idi Muhire

Abstract:

Background: Prior to April 2012, resuscitations were often ineffective resulting in poor patient outcomes. An initiative was implemented at Rwanda Military Hospital (RMH) to review root causes and plan strategies to improve patient outcomes. An interdisciplinary committee was developed to review this problem. Purpose: Analyze the frequency, obstacles, and outcome of patient resuscitation following cardiac and/or respiratory arrest. Methods: A form was developed to allow recording of all actions taken during resuscitation including response times, staff present, and equipment and medications used. Results:-The patient population requiring the most resuscitation effort are the intensive care patients, most frequently the neonatal the intensive care patients (42.8%) -Despite having trained staff representatives, not all resuscitations follow protocol -Lack of compliance with drug administration guidelines was noted, particularly in initiating use of drugs despite the drug being available (59%). Lesson Learned: Basic Life Support training for interdisciplinary staff resulted in more effective response to cardiac and/or respiratory arrest at RMH. Obstacles to effective resuscitation included number of staff, knowledge and skill level of staff, availability of appropriate equipment and medications, staff communication, and patient Do not Attempt Resuscitation (DNR) status.

Keywords: resuscitation, case analysis of knowledge versus practice, intensive care, critical care

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Authors: Md, MCS, MPH Munyangi Wa Nkola Jerome

Abstract:

The pandemic of COVID-19, a recently discovered contagious respiratory disease called SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 Majority of people infected with SARS-CoV-2: Asymptomatic or mildly ill 14% of patients will develop severe illness requiring hospitalization and oxygen support, and 5% of these will be transferred to an intensive care unit, Urgent need for new treatments that can be used quickly to avoid transfer of patients to intensive care and death. Objective: To evaluate the clinical activity (efficacy) of ArtiCovid Hypothesis: Administration of 3 times a teaspoon per day by COVID patients (symptomatic, mild, or moderate forms) results in the disappearance of symptoms and improvement of biological parameters (including viral suppression). Clinical efficacy: the disappearance of clinical signs after seven days of treatment; reduction in the rate of patients transferred to intensive care units for mechanical ventilation and a decrease in mortality related to this infection Paraclinical efficacy: improvement of biological parameters (mainly d-dimer, CRP) Virological efficacy: suppression of the viral load after seven days of treatment (control test on the seventh day is negative) Pilot study using a standardized solution based on Artemisia annua (ARTICOVID) Obtaining authorization from the health authorities of the province of Central Kongo Recruitment of volunteer patients, mainly in the Kinkanda HospitalCarrying out tests before and after treatment as well as analyses before and after treatment. The protocol obtained the approval of the ethics committee 50 patients who completed the treatment were aged between 2 and 70 years, with an average age of 36 yearsMore half were male (56%). One in four patients was a health professional (25%) Of the 12 health professionals, 4 were physicians. For those who reported the date of onset of the disease, the average duration between the appearance of the first symptoms and the medical consultation was 5 days. The 50 patients put on ARTICOVID were discharged alive with CRP levels substantially normalizedAfter seven to eight days, the control test came back negative. This pilot study suggests that ARTICOVID may be effective against COVID-19 infection.

Keywords: artiCovid, DRC, Covid-19, SARS_COV_2

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Authors: Hsin-Yi Lo, Huang-Ju Jiun, Yu-Chiao Chu

Abstract:

Hemodynamic monitoring is an important in the intensive care unit. Advances in medical technology in recent years, more diversification of intensive care equipment, there are many kinds of instruments available for monitoring of hemodynamics, Edwards Lifesciences Hemodynamic Monitoring (FloTrac) is one of them. The recent medical safety incidents in parameters were changed, nurses have not to notify doctor in time, therefore, it is hoped to analyze the current problems and find effective improvement strategies. In August 2021, the survey found that only 74.0% of FloTrac correctness of operation, reasons include lack of education, the operation manual is difficulty read, lack of audit mechanism, nurse doesn't know those numerical changes need to notify doctor, work busy omission, unfamiliar with operation and have many nursing records then omissions. Improvement methods include planning professional nurse education, formulate the secret arts of FloTrac, enacting an audit mechanism, establish FloTrac action learning, make「follow the sun」care map, hold simulated training and establish monitoring data automatically upload nursing records. After improvement, FloTrac correctness of operation increased to 98.8%. The results are good, implement to the ICU of the hospital.

Keywords: hemodynamic monitoring, edwards lifesciences hemodynamic monitoring, multiple strategies, intensive care

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Authors: S. Mantzoukis, M. Gerasimou, P. Christodoulou, N. Varsamis, G. Kolliopoulou, N. Zotos

Abstract:

Purpose: Patients in Intensive Care Units (ICU) are exposed to a different spectrum of microorganisms relative to the hospital. Due to the fact that the majority of these patients are intubated, bronchial secretions should be examined. Material and Method: Bronchial secretions should be taken with care so as not to be mixed with sputum or saliva. The bronchial secretions are placed in a sterile container and then inoculated into blood, Mac Conkey No2, Chocolate, Mueller Hinton, Chapman and Saboureaud agar. After this period, if any number of microbial colonies are detected, gram staining is performed and then the isolated organisms are identified by biochemical techniques in the automated Microscan system (Siemens) followed by a sensitivity test in the same system using the minimum inhibitory concentration MIC technique. The sensitivity test is verified by a Kirby Bauer test. Results: In 2017 the Laboratory of Microbiology received 365 samples of bronchial secretions from the Intensive Care Unit. 237 were found positive. S. epidermidis was identified in 1 specimen, A. baumannii in 60, K. pneumoniae in 42, P. aeruginosa in 50, C. albicans in 40, P. mirabilis in 4, E. coli in 4, S. maltophilia in 6, S. marcescens in 6, S. aureus in 12, S. pneumoniae in 1, S. haemolyticus in 4, P. fluorescens in 1, E. aerogenes in 1, E. cloacae in 5. Conclusions: The majority of ICU patients appear to be a fertile ground for the development of infections. The nature of the findings suggests that a significant part of the bacteria found comes from the unit (nosocomial infection).

Keywords: bronchial secretions, cultures, infections, intensive care units

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Authors: Merve Aydin, Mağfiret Kara Kaşikçi

Abstract:

Aim: To determine the perceptions of inpatients about care at Farabi Hospital in KTU. Material and Method: This research was conducted by using the universe known examples of formulas and probability selected by sampling method with 277 chosen patients in the hospital at least 14 days in other internal and surgical clinics except for pediatric, psychiatry, and intensive care unit services between January-March 2014 in KTU Farabi Hospital. The data was collected through the forms of nursing care perception scale of patients and defining characteristics of patients. In the evaluation of data, percentage, mean, Mann Whitney U, Student t and Kurskall Wallis tests were applied. Results: The average point the patients got in nursing care perception scale is 62.64±10.08’dir. 48.7 % of patients regard nursing care well and 36.8 % of them regard it very well. 19 % of the patients regard nursing care badly. When the age, sex, occupation, marital status, educational background, residential place, income level, hospitalization period, hospitalization clinic and having a hospital attendant were compared with nursing care perception average point, the difference among point averages was not found meaningful statistically (p > 0.05). The average point of nursing care perception was found greater in those having chronic disease (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The perception point of patients about nursing care is above the average according to the average of the lowest and highest points. The great majority of patients regard nursing care well or very well.

Keywords: hospital, patient, perception of nursing care, nursing care

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Authors: Meltem Kürtüncü, Işın Alkan

Abstract:

Objective: This study was carried out with an experimental design in order to determine whether the lullaby, which was listened from mother’s voice and a stranger’s voice to the babies born at term and hospitalized in neonatal intensive care unit, had an effect on stress and relaxation symptoms of the infants. Method: Data from the study were obtained from 90 newborn babies who were hospitalized in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Zonguldak Maternity And Children Hospital between September 2015-January 2016 and who met the eligibility criteria. Lullaby concert was performed by choosing one of the suitable care hours. Stress and relaxation symptoms were recorded by the researcher on “Newborn response follow-up form” at pre-care and post-care. Results: After lullaby concert when stress symptoms compared to infants in the experimental and control groups before the care was not detected statistically significant difference between crying, contraction, facial grimacing, flushing, cyanosis and the rates of increase in temperature. After care, crying, contractions, facial grimacing, flushing, and restlessness revealed a statistically significant difference between the groups, but as the cyanosis and temperature increased stress responses did not result in a significant difference between the groups. In the control group babies the crying, contraction, facial grimacing, flushing, and restlessness behaviors rates were found to be significantly higher than experimental group babies. After lullaby concert when relaxation symptoms compared to infants in the experimental and control groups before the care, eye contact rates who listen to lullaby from mother’s voice was found to be significantly higher than infants who listen to lullaby from stranger’s voice and infants in the control group. After care as eye contact, smiling, sucking/searching, yawning, non-crying and sleep behaviors relaxation symptoms revealed statistically significant results. In the control group, these behaviors were found statistically lower degree than the experimental groups. Conclusion: Lullaby concerts as masking the ambient noise, reducing the stress symptoms and increasing the relaxation symptoms, and also for soothing and stimulant affects, due to ease the transition to the sleep state should be preferred in the neonatal intensive care units.

Keywords: lullaby, mother voice, relaxation, stress

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Authors: Zhao Jiashen, Serene Goh, Jerry Goo, Anthony Li, Lim Woan Wui, Paul Drakeford, Chen Qing Yan

Abstract:

Introduction: Emergency laparotomy (EL) is one of the most common surgeries done in Singapore to treat acute abdominal pathologies. A significant proportion of these surgeries are performed in the geriatric population (65 years and older), who tend to have the highest postoperative morbidity, mortality, and highest utilization of intensive care resources. Frailty, the state of vulnerability to adverse outcomes from an accumulation of physiological deficits, has been shown to be associated with poorer outcomes after surgery and remains a strong driver of healthcare utilization and costs. To date, there is little understanding of the impact it has on emergency laparotomy outcomes. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of frailty on postoperative morbidity, mortality, and length of stay after EL. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in two tertiary centres in Singapore, Tan Tock Seng Hospital and Khoo Teck Puat Hospital the period from January to December 2019. Patients aged 65 years and above who underwent emergency laparotomy for intestinal obstruction, perforated viscus, bowel ischaemia, adhesiolysis, gastrointestinal bleed, or another suspected acute abdomen were included. Laparotomies performed for trauma, cholecystectomy, appendectomy, vascular surgery, and non-GI surgery were excluded. The Clinical Frailty Score (CFS) developed by the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) was used. A score of 1 to 4 was defined as non-frail and 5 to 7 as frail. We compared the clinical outcomes of elderly patients in the frail and non-frail groups. Results: There were 233 elderly patients who underwent EL during the study period. Up to 26.2% of patients were frail. Patients who were frail (CFS 5-9) tend to be older, 79 ± 7 vs 79 ± 5 years of age, p <0.01. Gender distribution was equal in both groups. Indication for emergency laparotomies, time from diagnosis to surgery, and presence of consultant surgeons and anaesthetists in the operating theatre were comparable (p>0.05). Patients in the frail group were more likely to receive postoperative geriatric assessment than in the non-frail group, 49.2% vs. 27.9% (p<0.01). The postoperative complications were comparable (p>0.05). The length of stay in the critical care unit was longer for the frail patients, 2 (IQR 1-6.5) versus 1 (IQR 0-4) days, p<0.01. Frailty was found to be an independent predictor of 90-day mortality but not age, OR 2.9 (1.1-7.4), p=0.03. Conclusion: Up to one-fourth of the elderly who underwent EL were frail. Patients who were frail were associated with a longer length of stay in the critical care unit and a 90-day mortality rate of more than three times that of their non-frail counterparts. PPOSSUM was a better predictor of 90-day mortality in the non-frail group than in the frail group. As frailty scoring was a significant predictor of 90-day mortality, its integration into acute surgical units to facilitate shared decision-making and discharge planning should be considered.

Keywords: frailty elderly, emergency, laparotomy

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Authors: Mudafara Bengleil

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Estimation of the magnitude and causes of poisoning was the objective of the current study. A retrospective study of medical records of all poisoning children admitted to Benghazi Children Hospital in Libya from January 2008 up to December 2010. Number of children admitted was 244; the age ranged from less than one to 13 years old. Most of cases were admitted with mild symptom and the majority of them were boys. Only few cases admitted to intensive care unit and there was no mortality recorded through the period of study. Age group 1 to 3 years (50.8%) had the highest frequency of admission and the peak of admission was during summer. The most common cause of admission was due to ingestion of medication (53.69%), House hold product exposure (26.64%) was the second causes of admission while, 19.67% of admissions were due to Food poisoning. Almost all admitted cases were accidental and medicines were the most consumed substances in addition, improper storage of toxic agents were the first risk factor of poisoning. Present results indicated that, children poisoning seems to be a common pediatric care problem which need to control and prevent.

Keywords: poisoning, children, hospital, medical

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Authors: Pornthip Seangsanga

Abstract:

Sepsis or septic shock needs urgent care because it is a cause of the high mortality rate if patients do not receive timely treatment. Songkhla Hospital does not have a clear system or clinical practice guidelines for treatment of patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, which contributes to the said problem.To compare clinical outcomes based on the protocol after using the clinical guidelines between the Emergency Room, Intensive Care Unit, and the Ward. This quasi-experimental study was conducted on the population and 50 subjects who were diagnosed with severe sepsis or septic shock from December 2013 to May 2014. The data were collected using a nursing care and referring record form for patients with severe sepsis or septic shock at Songkhla Hospital. The record form had been tested for its validity by three experts, and the IOC was 1.The mortality rate in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock who were moved from the ER to the ICU was significantly lower than that of those patients moved from the Ward to the ICU within 48 hours. This was because patients with severe sepsis or septic shock who were moved from the ER to the ICU received more fluid within the first six hours according to the protocol which helped patients to have adequate tissue perfusion within the first six hours, and that helped improve blood flow to the kidneys, and the patients’ urine was found to be with a higher quantity of 0.5 cc/kg/hr, than those patients who were moved from the Ward to the ICU. This study shows that patients with severe sepsis or septic shock need to be treated immediately. Using the clinical practice guidelines along with timely diagnosis and treatment based on the sepsis bundle in giving sufficient and suitable amount of fluid to help improve blood circulation and blood pressure can clearly prevent or reduce severity of complications.

Keywords: clinical practice guidelines, caring, septic shock, sepsis bundle protocol

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Authors: Mary Farrell, Maria Soubra, Sandra Vega, Dorothy Kakraba, Joanne Fontanilla, Moira Kendra, Danielle Tonzola, Stephanie Chiu

Abstract:

Pneumonia is the most common infectious cause of hospitalizations in the United States, with more than one million admissions annually and costs of $10 billion every year, making it the 8th leading cause of death. Aspiration pneumonia is an aggressive type of pneumonia that results from inhalation of oropharyngeal secretions and/or gastric contents and is preventable. The authors hypothesized that an evidence-based aspiration pneumonia clinical care pathway could reduce 30-day hospital readmissions and mortality rates, while improving the overall care of patients. We conducted a retrospective chart review on 979 patients discharged with aspiration pneumonia from January 2021 to December 2022 at Overlook Medical Center. The authors identified patients who were coded with aspiration pneumonia and/or stable sepsis. Secondarily, we identified 30-day readmission rates for aspiration pneumonia from a SNF. The Aspiration Pneumonia Clinical Care Pathway starts in the emergency department (ED) with the initiation of antimicrobials within 4 hours of admission and early recognition of aspiration. Once this is identified, a swallow test is initiated by the bedside nurse, and if the patient demonstrates dysphagia, they are maintained on strict nothing by mouth (NPO) followed by a speech and language pathologist (SLP) referral for an appropriate modified diet recommendation. Aspiration prevention techniques included the avoidance of straws, 45-degree positioning, no talking during meals, taking small bites, placement of the aspiration wrist band, and consuming meals out of the bed in a chair. Nursing education was conducted with a newly created online learning module about aspiration pneumonia. The authors identified 979 patients, with an average age of 73.5 years old, who were diagnosed with aspiration pneumonia on the index hospitalization. These patients were reviewed for a 30-day readmission for aspiration pneumonia or stable sepsis, and mortality rates from January 2021 to December 2022 at Overlook Medical Center (OMC). The 30-day readmission rates were significantly lower in the cohort that received the clinical care pathway (35.0% vs. 27.5%, p = 0.011). When evaluating the mortality rates in the pre and post intervention cohort the authors discovered the mortality rates were lower in the post intervention cohort (23.7% vs 22.4%, p = 0.61) Mortality among non-white (self-reported as non-white) patients were lower in the post intervention cohort (34.4% vs. 21.0% , p = 0.05). Patients who reported as a current smoker/vaper in the pre and post cohorts had increased mortality rates (5.9% vs 22%). There was a decrease in mortality for the male population but an increase in mortality for women in the pre and post cohorts (19% vs. 25%). The authors attributed this increase in mortality in the post intervention cohort to more active smokers, more former smokers, and more being admitted from a SNF. This research identified that implementation of an Aspiration Pneumonia Clinical Care Pathway showed a statistically significant decrease in readmission rates and mortality rates in non-whites. The 30-day readmission rates were lower in the cohort that received the clinical care pathway (35.0% vs. 27.5%, p = 0.011).

Keywords: aspiration pneumonia, mortality, quality improvement, 30-day pneumonia readmissions

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Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

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