Search results for: mortality improvement

Authors: Zohreh Rostami, Arezoo Khosravi, Mohammad Nikpoor Aghdam, Mahmood Salesi

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Background: Cardiovascular mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients have a strong relationship with baseline or progressive left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) meanwhile in hemodialysis patients 10% decrement in left ventricular mass was associated with 28% reduction in cardiovascular mortality risk. In consonance with these arguments, we designed a study to measure morphological and functional echocardiographic variations early after transplantation. Method: The patients with normal renal function underwent two advanced echocardiographic studies to examine the structural and functional changes in left ventricular mass before and 3-month after transplantation. Results: From a total of 23 participants 21(91.3%) presented with left ventricular hypertrophy, 60.9% in eccentric and 30.4% in concentric group. Diastolic dysfunction improved in concentric group after transplantation. Both in pre and post transplantation global longitudinal strain (GLS)- average in eccentric group was more than concentric (-17.45 ± 2.75 vs -14.3 ± 3.38 p=0.03) and (-18.08 ± 2.6 vs -16.1 ± 2.7 p= 0.04) respectively. Conclusion: Improvement and recovery of left ventricular function in concentric group was better and sooner than eccentric after kidney transplantation. Although fractional shortening and diastolic function and GLS-4C in pre-transplantation in concentric group was worse than eccentric, but therapeutic response to kidney transplantation in concentric was more and earlier than eccentric group.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, end stage renal disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, global longitudinal strain

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Authors: Changaiz Khan

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Pakistan has the highest rates of maternal mortality in South Asia. From the year 2000 to 2017 the global rate of maternal mortality has decreased up to 39 %. In the context of South Asia, it has decreased by 59% since 2000s. Pakistan has also reduced the rate of maternal mortality, but there is a difference on the provincial level. According to the report of the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) conducted in 2020, the MMR in Balochistan has crossed the ratio of most of the South Asian countries, i.e., 298 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. In comparison, the province of Punjab has the lowest maternal mortality rate i.e. 157 deaths (per 100,000 live births). The rate of maternal mortality is much higher in Balochistan as compared to the other provinces. This research is aimed to discuss the supply side barriers and utilization of maternal healthcare services in the District Gwadar. Likert scale survey method has been used to collect data from the Healthcare Professionals from hospitals -private and government- and the maternal healthcare receiver, that is patient. Semi-structured interviews of healthcare professionals such as doctors, nurses, and Lab technicians have also been conducted. It has been found in this research study that the hospitals in Gwadar district are lagging behind in providing modern maternal healthcare to women due to the lack of staff training, medicine supply, and Laboratories. Moreover, the system of the lady health worker is also not catering to the needs of the women in District Gwadar. It has been recommended in the study that first of all the government should fulfill the supply of the medicine in the hospital. Secondly, the government should open laboratories in the hospitals. Thirdly, the government should increase the funding of the government hospital and the allocation of lady health workers in District Gwadar, Balochistan should be increased.

Keywords: maternal mortality, neonatal, postnatal, supply barriers, patients, healthcare professionals, laboratory, medical supply, training

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Authors: Adelson G. Guillarte, M. D., Noel J. Belonguel, Jarungchai Anton S. Vatanagul

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Patients with malignant middle cerebral infarction (MCA) (with massive brain swelling and herniation) were reported to have a mortality rate of 80% even with the appropriate conservative medical therapy. European Trials (DECIMAL, DESTINY I, and II, HAMLET) showed significant improvement in mortality and functional outcome with hemicraniectomy. No known published local studies in the region, thus a local study is vital. This is a single center, retrospective, descriptive, cross-sectional, chart review study which includes ≥18 year-old patients with malignant MCA infarction, who underwent hemicraniectomy, and those who were given conservative medical therapy alone, from January 2008 to December 2012 at Perpetual Succour Hospital. Excluded were patients whose charts are with insufficient data, prior MCA stroke, with concomitant intracerebral hemorrhage and with other serious medical conditions or terminal illnesses. Minimum of 32 populations were needed. Data were presented in mean, standard deviation, frequency and percentage distribution. Man n Whitney U test and Chi Square test were used. P-values lesser than 0.05 alpha were considered statistically significant. A total of 672 stroke patients were admitted. 34 patients pass the inclusion criteria. 9 underwent hemicraniectomy and 25 were treated by conservative medical therapy alone. Although not statistically significant (64% vs 33%, p=0.112) there were more patients noted improved in the conservative treatment group. Meanwhile, the Hemicraniectomy group have increased percentage of mortality (67%) (p=0.112). There was a decreasing trend in the average NIHSS score in both groups from admission to post-op 7 days (p=0.198, p=0.78). A bigger multicenter prospective study is recommended to control inherent biases and limitations of a retrospective and smaller study.

Keywords: cerebral infarct, hemicraniectomy, ischemic stroke, malignant middle cerebral artery (MCA) infarct

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Authors: Arulselvi Subramanian, Albert Venencia, Sanjeev Bhoi

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Coagulopathy of trauma is an early endogenous coagulation abnormality that occurs shortly resulting in high mortality. In emergency trauma situations, viscoelastic tests may be better in identifying the various phenotypes of coagulopathy and demonstrate the contribution of platelet function to coagulation. We aimed to determine thrombin generation and clot strength, by estimating a ratio of Maximum amplitude and R-time (MA-R ratio) for identifying trauma coagulopathy and predicting subsequent mortality. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of acutely injured trauma patients of the adult age groups (18- 50 years), admitted within 24hrs of injury, for one year at a Level I trauma center and followed up on 3rd day and 5th day of injury. Patients with h/o coagulation abnormalities, liver disease, renal impairment, with h/o intake of drugs were excluded. Thromboelastography was done and a ratio was calculated by dividing the MA by the R-time (MA-R). Patients were further stratified into sub groups based on the calculated MA-R quartiles. First sampling was done within 24 hours of injury; follow up on 3rd and 5thday of injury. Mortality was the primary outcome. Results: 100 acutely injured patients [average, 36.6±14.3 years; 94% male; injury severity score 12.2(9-32)] were included in the study. Median (min-max) on admission MA-R ratio was 15.01(0.4-88.4) which declined 11.7(2.2-61.8) on day three and slightly rose on day 5 13.1(0.06-68). There were no significant differences between sub groups in regard to age, or gender. In the lowest MA-R ratios subgroup; MA-R1 (<8.90; n = 27), injury severity score was significantly elevated. MA-R2 (8.91-15.0; n = 23), MA-R3 (15.01-19.30; n = 24) and MA-R4 (>19.3; n = 26) had no difference between their admission laboratory investigations, however slight decline was observed in hemoglobin, red blood cell count and platelet counts compared to the other subgroups. Also significantly prolonged R time, shortened alpha angle and MA were seen in MA-R1. Elevated incidence of mortality also significantly correlated with on admission low MA-R ratios (p 0.003). Temporal changes in the MA-R ratio did not correlated with mortality. Conclusion: The MA-R ratio provides a snapshot of early clot function, focusing specifically on thrombin burst and clot strength. In our observation, patients with the lowest MA-R time ratio (MA-R1) had significantly increased mortality compared with all other groups (45.5% MA-R1 compared with <25% in MA-R2 to MA-R3, and 9.1% in MA-R4; p < 0.003). Maximum amplitude and R-time may prove highly useful to predict at-risk patients early, when other physiologic indicators are absent.

Keywords: coagulopathy, trauma, thromboelastography, mortality

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Authors: Aytakin Huseynli

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The paper reports findings of the study which examined under-five mortality rate among resource-rich countries. Typically when countries obtain wealth citizens gain increased wellbeing. Societies with new wealth create equal opportunities for everyone including vulnerable groups. But scholars claim that this is not the case for developing resource-rich countries and natural resources become the curse for them rather than the blessing. Spillovers from natural resource curse affect the social wellbeing of vulnerable people negatively. They get excluded from the mainstream society, and their situation becomes tangible. In order to test this hypothesis, the study compared under-5 mortality rate among resource-rich countries by using independent sample one-way ANOVA. The data on under-five mortality rate came from the World Bank. The natural resources for this study are oil, gas and minerals. The list of 67 resource-rich countries was taken from Natural Resource Governance Institute. The sample size was categorized and 4 groups were created such as low, low-middle, upper middle and high-income countries based on income classification of the World Bank. Results revealed that there was a significant difference in the scores for low, middle, upper-middle and high-income countries in under-five mortality rate (F(3(29.01)=33.70, p=.000). To find out the difference among income groups, the Games-Howell test was performed and it was found that infant mortality was an issue for low, middle and upper middle countries but not for high-income countries. Results of this study are in agreement with previous research on resource curse and negative effects of resource-based development. Policy implications of the study for social workers, policy makers, academicians and social development specialists are to raise and discuss issues of marginalization and exclusion of vulnerable groups in developing resource-rich countries and suggest interventions for avoiding them.

Keywords: children, natural resource, extractive industries, resource-based development, vulnerable groups

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Authors: Alice Sanwald, Thomas Schober

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We analyze mortality and follow-up costs of heart attack patients using administrative data from Austria (2002-2011). As treatment intensity in a hospital largely depends on whether it has a catheterization laboratory, we focus on the effects of patients' initial admission to these specialized hospitals. To account for the nonrandom selection of patients into hospitals, we exploit individuals' place of residence as a source of exogenous variation in an instrumental variable framework. We find that the initial admission to specialized hospitals increases patients' survival chances substantially. The effect on 3-year mortality is -9.5 percentage points. A separation of the sample into subgroups shows the strongest effects in relative terms for patients below the age of 65. We do not find significant effects on longterm inpatient costs and find only marginal increases in outpatient costs.

Keywords: acute myocardial infarction, mortality, costs, instrumental variables, heart attack

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Authors: Dmitriy Syssoyev, Aslan Seitkamzin, Natalya Lim, Kamilla Mussina, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Dimitri Poddighe, Dinara Galiyeva

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Background: Data on the epidemiology of congenital heart defects (CHD) in Kazakhstan is scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe the incidence, prevalence and all-cause mortality of patients with CHD in Kazakhstan, using national large-scale registry data from the Unified National Electronic Healthcare System (UNEHS) for the period of 2014-2020. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, the included data pertained to all patients diagnosed with CHD in Kazakhstan and registered in UNEHS between January 2014 and December 2020. CHD was defined based on International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes Q20-Q26. Incidence, prevalence, and all-cause mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 population. Survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling and the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: In total, 66,512 patients were identified. Among them, 59,534 (89.5%) were diagnosed with a single CHD, while 6,978 (10.5%) had more than two CHDs. The median age at diagnosis was 0.08 years (interquartile range (IQR) 0.01 – 0.66) for people with multiple CHD types and 0.39 years (IQR 0.04 – 8.38) for those with a single CHD type. The most common CHD types were atrial septal defect (ASD) and ventricular septal defect (VSD), accounting for 25.8% and 21.2% of single CHD cases, respectively. The most common multiple types of CHD were ASD with VSD (23.4%), ASD with patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) (19.5%), and VSD with PDA (17.7%). The incidence rate of CHD decreased from 64.6 to 47.1 cases per 100,000 population among men and from 68.7 to 42.4 among women. The prevalence rose from 66.1 to 334.1 cases per 100,000 population among men and from 70.8 to 328.7 among women. Mortality rates showed a slight increase from 3.5 to 4.7 deaths per 100,000 in men and from 2.9 to 3.7 in women. Median follow-up was 5.21 years (IQR 2.47 – 11.69). Male sex (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.45 - 1.77), having multiple CHDs (HR 2.45, 95% CI 2.01 - 2.97), and living in a rural area (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19 - 1.47) were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality. Conclusion: The incidence of CHD in Kazakhstan has shown a moderate decrease between 2014 and 2020, while prevalence and mortality have increased. Male sex, multiple CHD types, and rural residence were significantly associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality.

Keywords: congenital heart defects (CHD), epidemiology, incidence, Kazakhstan, mortality, prevalence

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Authors: Mahmoud E. Mohamed, Ahmed F. Shalash, Hanan A. Kamal

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In communication systems, frequency jump is a serious problem caused by the oscillators used. Kalman filters are used to detect that jump, Despite the tradeoff between the noise level and the speed of the detection. In this paper, An improvement is introduced in the Kalman filter, Through a nonlinear change in the bandwidth of the filter. Simulation results show a considerable improvement in the filter speed with a very low noise level. Additionally, The effect on the response to false alarms is also presented and false alarm rate show improvement.

Keywords: Kalman filter, innovation, false detection, improvement

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Authors: Firouz Amani, Adalat Hoseinian, Sajjad Hakimian

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Background: The mortality due to Myocardial Infarction (MI) is often occur during the first hours after onset of symptom. So, for taking the necessary treatment and decreasing the mortality rate, timely visited of the hospital could be effective in this regard. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of effective factors in mortality of MI patients by using Linear Logistic Regression. Materials and Methods: In this case-control study, all patients with Acute MI who referred to the Ardabil city hospital were studied. All of died patients were considered as the case group (n=27) and we select 27 matched patients without Acute MI as a control group. Data collected for all patients in two groups by a same checklist and then analyzed by SPSS version 24 software using statistical methods. We used the linear logistic regression model to determine the effective factors on mortality of MI patients. Results: The mean age of patients in case group was significantly higher than control group (75.1±11.7 vs. 63.1±11.6, p=0.001).The history of non-cardinal diseases in case group with 44.4% significantly higher than control group with 7.4% (p=0.002).The number of performed PCIs in case group with 40.7% significantly lower than control group with 74.1% (P=0.013). The time distance between hospital admission and performed PCI in case group with 110.9 min was significantly upper than control group with 56 min (P=0.001). The mean of delay time from Onset of symptom to hospital admission (patient delay) and the mean of delay time from hospital admissions to receive treatment (system delay) was similar between two groups. By using logistic regression model we revealed that history of non-cardinal diseases (OR=283) and the number of performed PCIs (OR=24.5) had significant impact on mortality of MI patients in compare to other factors. Conclusion: Results of this study showed that of all studied factors, the number of performed PCIs, history of non-cardinal illness and the interval between onset of symptoms and performed PCI have significant relation with morality of MI patients and other factors were not meaningful. So, doing more studies with a large sample and investigated other involved factors such as smoking, weather and etc. is recommended in future.

Keywords: acute MI, mortality, heart failure, arrhythmia

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Authors: Maria L. G. Lourenço, Keylla H. N. P. Pereira, Viviane Y. Hibaru, Fabiana F. Souza, João C. P. Ferreira, Simone B. Chiacchio, Luiz H. A. Machado

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Orphaned is a risk factor for mortality in newborns since it is a condition with total or partial absence of maternal care that is essential for neonatal survival, including nursing (nutrition, the transference of passive immunity and hydration), warmth, urination, and defecation stimuli, and protection. The most common causes of mortality in orphans are related to lack of assistance, handling mistakes and infections. This study aims to describe the orphans rates in neonatal puppies, the main causes, and the mortality rates. The study included 735 neonates admitted to the Sao Paulo State University (UNESP) Veterinary Hospital, Botucatu, Sao Paulo, Brazil, between January 2018 and November 2019. The orphans rate was 43.4% (319/735) of all neonates included, and the main causes for orphaned were related to maternal agalactia/hypogalactia (23.5%, 75/319); numerous litter (15.7%, 50/319), toxic milk syndrome due to maternal mastitis (14.4%, 46/319), absence of suction/weak neonate (12.2%, 39/319), maternal disease (9.4%, 30/319), cleft palate/lip (6.3%, 20/319), maternal death (5.9%, 19/319), prematurity (5.3%, 17/319), rejection/failure in maternal instinct (3.8%, 12/319) and abandonment by the owner/separation of mother and neonate (3.5%, 11/319). The main consequences of orphaned observed in the admitted neonates were hypoglycemia, hypothermia, dehydration, aspiration pneumonia, wasting syndrome, failure in the transference of passive immunity, infections and sepsis, which happened due to failure of identifying the problem early, lack of adequate assistance, negligence and handling mistakes by the owner. The total neonatal mortality rate was 8% (59/735) and the neonatal mortality rate among orphans was 18.5% (59/319). The orphaned and mortality rates were considered high, but even higher rates may be observed in locations without adequate neonatal assistance and owner orientation. The survival of these patients is related to constant monitoring of the litter, early diagnosis and assistance, and the implementation of effective handling for orphans. Understanding the correct handling for neonates and instructing the owners regarding proper handling are essential to minimize the consequences of orphaned and the mortality rates.

Keywords: orphans, neonatal care, puppies, newborn dogs

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Authors: Upal Barua

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Crash risk at intersections is a critical safety issue. This paper examines the effectiveness of removing an existing off-set at an intersection by realignment, in reducing crashes. Empirical Bayes method was applied to conduct a before-and-after study to assess the effect of this safety improvement. The Transportation Safety Improvement Program in Austin Transportation Department completed several safety improvement projects at high crash intersections with a view to reducing crashes. One of the common safety improvement techniques applied was the realignment of intersection approaches removing an existing off-set. This paper illustrates how this safety improvement technique is applied at a high crash intersection from inception to completion. This paper also highlights the significant crash reductions achieved from this safety improvement technique applying Empirical Bayes method in a before-and-after study. The result showed that realignment of intersection approaches removing an existing off-set can reduce crashes by 53%. This paper also features the state of the art techniques applied in planning, engineering, designing and construction of this safety improvement, key factors driving the success, and lessons learned in the process.

Keywords: crash risk, intersection, off-set, safety improvement technique, before-and-after study, empirical Bayes method

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Authors: Mohamad Kazem Zamani, Meldi Suhatril

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Soil improvement is one of the main concerns of each civil engineer who is working at soil mechanics and geotechnics. Grouting has been used as a powerful treatment for soil improving. In this paper, we have tried to review the grouting application base on grouts which is used and also we have tried to give a general view of grout applications and where and when can be used.

Keywords: cementious grouting, chemical grouting, soil improvement, civil engineering

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Authors: Eleonora Di Mario

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This paper describes the application of ground improvement to replace a typical piled foundation scheme in a power plant in Singapore. Several buildings within the plant were founded on vibro-compacted sand, including a turbine unit which had extremely stringent requirements on the allowable settlement. The achieved savings in terms of cost and schedule are presented. The monitoring data collected during the operation of the turbine are compared to the design predictions to validate the design approach, and the quality of the ground improvement works. In addition, the calculated carbon footprint of the ground improvement works are compared to the piled solution, showing that the vibro-compaction has a significantly lower carbon footprint.

Keywords: ground improvement, vibro-compaction, case study, sustainability, carbon footprint

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Authors: Benjamin J. Kuo, Silvia D. Vaca, Joao Ricardo Nickenig Vissoci, Catherine A. Staton, Linda Xu, Michael Muhumuza, Hussein Ssenyonjo, John Mukasa, Joel Kiryabwire, Lydia Nanjula, Christine Muhumuza, Henry E. Rice, Gerald A. Grant, Michael M. Haglund

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Background: Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is disproportionally concentrated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with the odds of dying from TBI in Uganda more than 4 times higher than in high income countries (HICs). The disparities in the injury incidence and outcome between LMICs and resource-rich settings have led to increased health outcomes research for TBIs and their associated risk factors in LMICs. While there have been increasing TBI studies in LMICs over the last decade, there is still a need for more robust prospective registries. In Uganda, a trauma registry implemented in 2004 at the Mulago National Referral Hospital (MNRH) showed that RTI is the major contributor (60%) of overall mortality in the casualty department. While the prior registry provides information on injury incidence and burden, it’s limited in scope and doesn’t follow patients longitudinally throughout their hospital stay nor does it focus specifically on TBIs. And although these retrospective analyses are helpful for benchmarking TBI outcomes, they make it hard to identify specific quality improvement initiatives. The relationship among epidemiology, patient risk factors, clinical care, and TBI outcomes are still relatively unknown at MNRH. Objective: The objectives of this study are to describe the processes of care and determine risk factors predictive of poor outcomes for TBI patients presenting to a single tertiary hospital in Uganda. Methods: Prospective data were collected for 563 TBI patients presenting to a tertiary hospital in Kampala from 1 June – 30 November 2016. Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) was used to systematically collect variables spanning 8 categories. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted to determine significant predictors of mortality. Results: 563 TBI patients were enrolled from 1 June – 30 November 2016. 102 patients (18%) received surgery, 29 patients (5.1%) intended for surgery failed to receive it, and 251 patients (45%) received non-operative management. Overall mortality was 9.6%, which ranged from 4.7% for mild and moderate TBI to 55% for severe TBI patients with GCS 3-5. Within each TBI severity category, mortality differed by management pathway. Variables predictive of mortality were TBI severity, more than one intracranial bleed, failure to receive surgery, high dependency unit admission, ventilator support outside of surgery, and hospital arrival delayed by more than 4 hours. Conclusions: The overall mortality rate of 9.6% in Uganda for TBI is high, and likely underestimates the true TBI mortality. Furthermore, the wide-ranging mortality (3-82%), high ICU fatality, and negative impact of care delays suggest shortcomings with the current triaging practices. Lack of surgical intervention when needed was highly predictive of mortality in TBI patients. Further research into the determinants of surgical interventions, quality of step-up care, and prolonged care delays are needed to better understand the complex interplay of variables that affect patient outcome. These insights guide the development of future interventions and resource allocation to improve patient outcomes.

Keywords: care continuum, global neurosurgery, Kampala Uganda, LMIC, Mulago, prospective registry, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Abdullah Alhaqbani

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Purpose: Implementing continuous improvement is a challenge that public sector organisations face in becoming successful. Many obstacles hinder public organisations from successfully implementing continuous improvement. This paper aims to highlight the key core obstacles that face public organisations to implement continuous improvement programmes. Approach: Based on the literature, this paper reviews 66 papers that were published between 2000 and 2013 and that focused on the concept of continuous improvement and improvement methodologies in the context of public sector organisations. The methodologies for continuous improvement covered in these papers include Total Quality Management, Six Sigma, process re-engineering, lean thinking and Kaizen. Findings: Of the 24 obstacles found in the literature, 11 barriers were seen as core barriers that frequently occurred in public sector organisations. The findings indicate that lack of top management commitment; organisational culture and political issues and resistance to change are significant obstacles for improvement programmes. Moreover, this review found that improvement methodologies share some core barriers to successful implementation within public organisations. These barriers as well are common in the different geographic area. For instance lack of top management commitment and training that found in the education sector in Albanian are common barriers of improvement studies in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Spain, UK and US. Practical implications: Understanding these core issues and barriers will help managers of public organisations to improve their strategies with respect to continuous improvement. Thus, this review highlights the core issues that prevent a successful continuous improvement journey within the public sector. Value: Identifying and understanding the common obstacles to successfully implementing continuous improvement in the public sector will help public organisations to learn how to improve in launching and successfully sustaining such programmes. However, this is not the end; rather, it is just the beginning of a longer improvement journey. Thus, it is intended that this review will identify key learning opportunities for public sector organisations in developing nations which will then be tested via further research.

Keywords: continuous improvement, total quality management, obstacles, public sector

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Authors: A. Jatau, Q. Majeed, H. M. Bandiya

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The efficacy of five local spices, namely; Hot pepper (Capsicum annum L.), Black pepper (Piper guinese Schum and Thonn), Sweet basil (Occimum canum Sim), African nut-meg (Monodora myristica Dunal), and Ginger (Zingiber officianale Ross) with conventional insecticide against the D. maculatus was studied under ambient laboratory conditions. The plants were pulverized into powders and applied at the rate of 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0g per 25g of disinfected dried fish. The same amount of fish (25g) was treated with 5ml of 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 percent solution of conventional insecticide (dichlorvos) and air dried for 2hrs. Ten newly hatched 1st instar larvae (24hrs old) were introduced into each powdered smoked fish in separate beakers. Untreated control was also set up. Observation on the mortality and development were recorded daily until the larvae pupated. Each of the treated smoked fish showed significant (p<0.05) effect on the larval mortality and development when compared with the control. The Piper guinense was as efficacious as dichlorvos in killing all the larvae (100%) at all concentrations before pupation. Ocimum Canunm gave the second best results (50.00, 63.33 and 100%), while the other three spices resulted in less than 50% mortalities at all rate of application. The spice powders were also observed to have extended the larval developmental period. Thus, the spices tested can be recommended for the control of D. maculatus.

Keywords: development, dermestes maculatus, insecticide, local spices, mortality

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Authors: Najade Sheriff, Malaz Elsaddig, Kevin Jones

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Background: Death in the first month of life accounts for an increasing proportion of under-five mortality. Advancement to reduce this number is being made across the globe; however, progress is slowest in sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives: The study aims to identify differences between neonatal deaths of inpatient babies born in a hospital facility in rural Uganda to those of neonates admitted from the community and to explore whether they can be used to risk stratify neonatal admissions. Results: A retrospective chart review was conducted on records for neonates admitted to the Special Care Baby Unit (SCBU) Kitovu Hospital from 1st July 2016 to 21st July 2017. A total of 442 babies were admitted and the overall neonatal mortality was 24.8% (40% inpatient, 37% community, 23% hospital referrals). 40% of deaths occurred within 24 hours of admission and the majority were male (63%). 43% of babies were hypothermic upon admission, a significantly greater proportion of which were inpatient babies born in labour ward (P=0.0025). Intrapartum related death accounted for ½ of all inpatient babies whereas complications of prematurity were the predominant cause of death in the community group (37%). Severe infection does not seem like a significant factor of mortality for inpatients (2%) as it does for community admissions (29%). Furthermore, with 52.5% of community admissions weighing < 1500g, very low birth weight (VLBW) may be a significant risk factor for community neonatal death. Conclusion: The neonatal mortality rate in this study is high, and the leading causes of death are all largely preventable. A high rate of inpatient birth asphyxiation indicates the need for good quality facility-based perinatal care as well as a greater focus on the management of hypothermia, such as Kangaroo care. Moreover, a reduction in preterm deliveries is necessary to reduce associated comorbidities, and monitoring for signs of infection is especially important for community admissions.

Keywords: community, mortality, newborn, Uganda

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Authors: P. Aarumugam, N. Krishnamoorthy, K. Gunasekaran

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The mosquitoes with loss of minimum three legs especially the hind legs have the negative impact on the survival hood of mosquitoes. Three days old unfed adult female laboratory strain was selected in each generation against sublethal dosages (0.004%, 0.005%, 0.007% and 0.01%) of deltamethrin upto 40 generations. Impregnated papers with acetone were used for control. Every fourth generation, survived mosquitoes were observed for functional mortality. Hind legs lost were significantly (P< 0.05) higher in treated than the controls up to generation 24, thereafter no significant lost. In contrary, no significant forelegs lost among exposed mosquitoes. Middle legs lost were also not significant in the exposed mosquitoes except first generation (F1). The field strain (Chennai) did not show any significant loss of legs (fore or mid or hind) compared to the control. The selection pressure on mosquito population influences strong natural selection to develop various adaptive mechanisms.

Keywords: Anopheles stephensi, deltamethrin, functional mortality, synthetic pyrethroids

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Authors: Lodgaard Eirin, Myklebust Odd, Eleftheriadis Ragnhild

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Continuous improvement is becoming increasingly a prerequisite for manufacturing companies to remain competitive in a global market. In addition, future survival and success will depend on the ability to manage the forthcoming digitalization transformation in the industry 4.0 era. Industry 4.0 promises substantially increased operational effectiveness, were all equipment are equipped with integrated processing and communication capabilities. Subsequently, the interplay of human and technology will evolve and influence the range of worker tasks and demands. Taking into account these changes, the concept of continuous improvement must evolve accordingly. Based on a case study from manufacturing industry, the purpose of this paper is to point out what the concept of continuous improvement will meet and has to take into considering when entering the 4th industrial revolution. In the past, continuous improvement has the focus on a culture of sustained improvement targeting the elimination of waste in all systems and processes of an organization by involving everyone. Today, it has to be evolved into the forthcoming digital transformation and the increased interplay of human and digital communication system to reach its full potential. One main findings of this study, is how digital communication systems will act as an enabler to strengthen the continuous improvement process, by moving from collaboration within individual teams to interconnection of teams along the product value chain. For academics and practitioners, it will help them to identify and prioritize their steps towards an industry 4.0 implementation integrated with focus on continuous improvement.

Keywords: continuous improvement, digital communication system, human-machine-interaction, industry 4.0, team perfomance

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Authors: Haoming Ma, Guo Yu, Peiru Zhou

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Background: Previous studies show that dysglycemia, mostly hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia and glycemic variability(GV), are associated with excess mortality in critically ill patients, especially those without diabetes. Glycemic variability is an increasingly important measure of glucose control in the intensive care unit (ICU) due to this association. However, there is limited data pertaining to the relationship between different clinical factors and glycemic variability and clinical outcomes categorized by their DM status. This retrospective study of 958 intensive care unit(ICU) patients was conducted to investigate the relationship between GV and outcome in critically ill patients and further to determine the significant factors that contribute to the glycemic variability. Aim: We hypothesize that the factors contributing to mortality and the glycemic variability are different from critically ill patients with or without diabetes. And the primary aim of this study was to determine which dysglycemia (hyperglycemia\hypoglycemia\glycemic variability) is independently associated with an increase in mortality among critically ill patients in different groups (DM/Non-DM). Secondary objectives were to further investigate any factors affecting the glycemic variability in two groups. Method: A total of 958 diabetic and non-diabetic patients with severe diseases in the ICU were selected for this retrospective analysis. The glycemic variability was defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) of blood glucose. The main outcome was death during hospitalization. The secondary outcome was GV. The logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with mortality. The relationships between GV and other variables were investigated using linear regression analysis. Results: Information on age, APACHE II score, GV, gender, in-ICU treatment and nutrition was available for 958 subjects. Predictors remaining in the final logistic regression model for mortality were significantly different in DM/Non-DM groups. Glycemic variability was associated with an increase in mortality in both DM(odds ratio 1.05; 95%CI:1.03-1.08,p＜0.001) or Non-DM group(odds ratio 1.07; 95%CI:1.03-1.11,p=0.002). For critically ill patients without diabetes, factors associated with glycemic variability included APACHE II score(regression coefficient, 95%CI:0.29,0.22-0.36,p＜0.001), Mean BG(0.73,0.46-1.01,p＜0.001), total parenteral nutrition(2.87,1.57-4.17,p＜0.001), serum albumin(-0.18,-0.271 to -0.082,p＜0.001), insulin treatment(2.18,0.81-3.55,p=0.002) and duration of ventilation(0.006,0.002-1.010,p=0.003).However, for diabetes patients, APACHE II score(0.203,0.096-0.310,p＜0.001), mean BG(0.503,0.138-0.869,p=0.007) and duration of diabetes(0.167,0.033-0.301,p=0.015) remained as independent risk factors of GV. Conclusion: We found that the relation between dysglycemia and mortality is different in the diabetes and non-diabetes groups. And we confirm that GV was associated with excess mortality in DM or Non-DM patients. Furthermore, APACHE II score, Mean BG, total parenteral nutrition, serum albumin, insulin treatment and duration of ventilation were significantly associated with an increase in GV in Non-DM patients. While APACHE II score, mean BG and duration of diabetes (years) remained as independent risk factors of increased GV in DM patients. These findings provide important context for further prospective trials investigating the effect of different clinical factors in critically ill patients with or without diabetes.

Keywords: diabetes, glycemic variability, predictors, severe disease

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Authors: Gunjan Srivastava, Shamila Kalia

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Dalbergia sissoo Roxb., (Family- Leguminosae; Subfamily- Papilionoideae), is an economically and ecologically important tree species having medicinal value. Of the rich complex of insect fauna, ten have been recognized as potential pests of nurseries and plantations. Present study was conducted to explore an effective ecofriendly control of Dichomeris eridantis Meyrick, an important defoliator pest of D. sissoo. Health and environmental concerns demanded devising a bio-intensive pest management strategy and employing ecofriendly measures. In the present laboratory bioassay two entomopathogenic fungi Acremonium perscinum and Beauveria bassiana were tested and compared for evaluating the efficacy of their seven different concentrations (besides control) against the 3rd, 4th and 5th instar larvae of D. eridantis, on the basis of mean percent mortality data recorded and tabulated for seven days after treatment application. Analysis showed that both treatments vary significantly among themselves. Also, variations amongst instars and duration with respect to their mortality were highly significant (p < .001). All their interactions were found to vary significantly. B. bassiana at 0.25x107 spores / ml spore concentration caused maximum mean percent mortality (62.38%) followed by mean percent mortality at its 0.25x106 spores / ml concentration (56.67%). Mean percent mortality at maximum spore concentration (0.054x107 spores / ml) and next highest spore concentration (0.054 x106 spores / ml) due to A. perscinum treatment were far less effective (mean percent mortality of 45.40% and 31.29%, respectively). At 168 hours mean percent mortality of larval instars due to both fungal treatment applications reached its maximum (52.99%) whereas, at 24 hours mean percent mortality remained least (5.70%). In both cases, treatments were most effective against 3rd instar larvae and least effective against 5th instar larvae. A comparative acccount of efficacy of B. bassiana and A. perscinum on the 3rd, 4th and 5th instar larvae of D. eridantis on 5th, 6th and 7th post treatment observation days after their application, on the basis of their median lethal concentrations (LC50) proved B. bassiana to be more potential microbial pathogen of the two fungal microbes, for all the three instars (3rd, 4th and 5th) of D. eridantis, on all the three days (5th, 6th and 7th post observation days after application of both treatments). Percent mortality of D. eridantis increased in a dose dependent manner. Koch’s Postulates tested positive, thus confirming the pathogenicity of B. bassiana against the larval instars of D. eridantis. LC90 values of 0.280x1011 spores/ml, 0.301x108 spores/ml and 0.262x108 spores/ml concentrations of B. bassiana were standardized which can effectively cause mortality of all the larval instars of D. eridantis in the field after 5th, 6th and 7th day of their application, respectively. Therefore, these concentrations can be safely used in nurseries as well as plantations of D. sissoo for effective control of D. eridantis larvae.

Keywords: Acremonium perscinum, Beauveria bassiana, Dalbergia sissoo, Dichomeris eridantis

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Authors: Rolandas Strazdas, Jurate Cerneviciute

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Creative industries are defined as those industries which produce tangible or intangible artistic and creative output and have a potential for income generation by exploitingcultural assets and producing knowledge-based goods and services (both traditional and contemporary). With the emergence of an entire sector of creative industriestriggered by the development of creative products managingcreativity-based business processes becomes a critical issue. Diverse managerial practices and models on effective management of creativity have beenexamined in scholarly literature. Even thoughthese studies suggest how creativity in organisations can be nourished, they do not sufficiently relate the proposed practices to the underlying business processes. The article analyses a range of business process improvement methods such as PDCA, DMAIC, DMADV and TOC. The strengths and weaknesses of these methods aimed to improvethe innovation development process are identified. Based on the analysis of the existing improvement methods, a continuous improvement model was developed and presented in the article.

Keywords: continuous improvement, creative industries, improvement model, process mapping

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Authors: S. Madhusudhan, G. V. Vaniprabha

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Worldwide statistics have shown that smoking contributes significantly to mortality, with nicotine, being more addictive. Smoking causes more than 7,00,000 deaths/year in India. Compared to the general population, the prevalence of smoking is found to be much higher among people with psychotic disorders and, more so in schizophrenia. Schizophrenic patients who smoke tend to have higher frequency of heavy smoking, with rates ranging from 60% to as high as 80%. Hence, smokers with psychiatric disorders suffer higher rates of morbidity and mortality secondary to smoking related illnesses.

Keywords: brief intervention, nicotine dependence, schizophrenia

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Authors: Jitka Rychtarikova

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Regional differences in mortality in the Czech Republic (CR) may be moderate from a broader European perspective, but important discrepancies in life expectancy can be found between smaller territorial units. In this study territorial units are based on Administrative Districts of Municipalities with Extended Powers (MEP). This definition came into force January 1, 2003. There are 205 units and the city of Prague. MEP represents the smallest unit for which mortality patterns based on life tables can be investigated and the Czech Statistical Office has been calculating such life tables (every five-years) since 2004. MEP life tables from 2009-2013 for males and females allowed the investigation of three main life cycles with the use of temporary life expectancies between the exact ages of 0 and 35; 35 and 65; and the life expectancy at exact age 65. The results showed regional survival inequalities primarily in adult and older ages. Consequently, only mortality indicators for adult and elderly population were related to census 2011 unlinked data for the same age groups. The most relevant socio-economic factors taken from the census are: having a partner, educational level and unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was measured for adults aged 35-64 completed years. Exploratory spatial data analysis methods were used to detect regional patterns in spatially contiguous units of MEP. The presence of spatial non-stationarity (spatial autocorrelation) of mortality levels for male and female adults (35-64), and elderly males and females (65+) was tested using global Moran’s I. Spatial autocorrelation of mortality patterns was mapped using local Moran’s I with the intention to depict clusters of low or high mortality and spatial outliers for two age groups (35-64 and 65+). The highest Moran’s I was observed for male temporary life expectancy between exact ages 35 and 65 (0.52) and the lowest was among women with life expectancy of 65 (0.26). Generally, men showed stronger spatial autocorrelation compared to women. The relationship between mortality indicators such as life expectancies and socio-economic factors like the percentage of males/females having a partner; percentage of males/females with at least higher secondary education; and percentage of unemployed males/females from economically active population aged 35-64 years, was evaluated using multiple regression (OLS). The results were then compared to outputs from geographically weighted regression (GWR). In the Czech Republic, there are two broader territories North-West Bohemia (NWB) and North Moravia (NM), in which excess mortality is well established. Results of the t-test of spatial regression showed that for males aged 30-64 the association between mortality and unemployment (when adjusted for education and partnership) was stronger in NM compared to NWB, while educational level impacted the length of survival more in NWB. Geographic variation and relationships in mortality of the CR MEP will also be tested using the spatial Durbin approach. The calculations were conducted by means of ArcGIS 10.6 and SAS 9.4.

Keywords: Czech Republic, mortality, municipality, socio-economic factors, spatial analysis

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Authors: Gagandeep Singh Grover, Vini Mahajan, Bhagmal, Priti Thaware, Jaspreet Takkar

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Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease endemic in many countries in the tropics and sub-tropics. The state of Punjab in India shows cyclical and seasonal variation in dengue cases. The Case Fatality Rate of Dengue has ranged from 0.6 to 1.0 in the past years. The department has initiated a review of the cases that have died due to dengue in order to know the exact cause of the death in a case of dengue. The study has been undertaken to know the other associated co-morbidities and factors causing death in a case of dengue. The study used the predesigned proforma on which the records (medical and Lab) were recorded and reviewed by the expert committee of the doctors. This study has revealed that cases of dengue having co-morbidities have a longer stay in the hospital. Fluid overload and co-morbidities have been found as major factors leading to death, however, in a confirmed case of dengue hepatorenal shutdown was found to be a major cause of mortality. The data obtained will help in sensitizing the treating physicians in order to decrease the mortality due to dengue in future.

Keywords: dengue, death, morbidities, DHF, DSS

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Authors: J. Waita, S. Wamuhu, J. Makoyo, M. Rachel, T. Ngangari, W. Christine, M. Zipporah

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Contraceptive use is one of the key global strategies to alleviate maternal mortality. Global efforts through advocating for contraceptive uptake and service provision has led improved contraceptive prevalence. In Kenya maternal mortality rate has remained a challenged despites efforts by government and non-governmental organizations. Objective: To describe the uptake of contraceptives among women in Tunza Clinics, Kenya. Design and Methods: Ps Kenya through health care marketing fund is implementing a family planning program among its 350 Tunza fractional franchise facilities. Through private partnership, private owned facilities in low socio-economic areas are recruited and trained on contraceptive technology update. The providers are supported through facilitative supervision through a mobile based application Health Network Quality Improvement System (HNQIS) and interpersonal communication through 150 community based volunteers. The data analyzed in this paper was collected between January to July 2017 to show the uptake of modern Contraceptives among women in the Tunza franchise, method mix, age and distribution among the age bracket. Further analysis compares two different service delivery strategies; outreach and walk ins. Supportive supervision HNQIS scores was analyzed. Results: During the time period, a total of 132121 family planning clients were attended in 350 facilities. The average age of clients was 29.6 years. The average number of clients attended in the facilities per month was 18874. 73.7 %( n=132121) of the clients attended in the Tunza facilities were aged above 25 years while 22.1% 20-24 years and 4.2% 15-19 years. On contraceptive method mix, intra uterine device insertions clients contributed to 7.5%, implant insertions 15.3%, pills 11.2%, injections 62.7% while condoms and emergency pills had 2.7% and 0.6% respectively. Analysis of service delivery strategy indicated more than 79% of the clients were walk ins while 21% were attended to during outreaches. Uptake of long term contraceptive methods during outreaches was 73% of the clients while short term modern methods were 27%. Health Network Quality Improvement system assessment scores indicated 51% of the facilities scored over 90%, 25% scoring 80-89% while 21% scored below 80%. Conclusion: Preference for short term methods by women is possibly associated to cost as they are cheaper and easy to administer. When the cost of intra uterine device Implants is meant affordable during outreaches, the uptake is observed to increase. Making intra uterine device and implants affordable to women is a key strategy in increasing contraceptive prevalence hence averting maternal mortality.

Keywords: contraceptives, contraceptive uptake, low socio economic, supportive supervision

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Authors: Nelson Rotimi Osungbemiro, Sanni Rafiu Olugbenga, Abayomi Olufemi Olajuyigbe

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Ninety Fingerlings of Clarias gariepinus were exposed to the pathogenic Flavobacterium columnare a Gram Negative bacteria responsible for high mortality in fish pond raised young fish (fries and fingerlings) of Clarias sp. in Southwestern Nigeria. After feeding with 40% crude protein pelletized fish feed for 5 days, the fishes were divided into two groups, one group was treated with extracts from Calendula officinalis flowers, while the second group was not treated (control). The results indicated that, at day 5, colony formation had been manifesting and at day 7, skin lesion occurred and at the 8th day, first mortality of fish occurred, and this continued steadily on the 9th-12th day when all the fishes were dead. Whereas, in the group that was treated with Calendula sp., no single mortality was recorded. This research shows that plant extract from Calendula flowers is an effective antimicrobial agent against the virulent pathogenic Flavobacterium columnare disease.

Keywords: antimicrobial, Flavobacterium columnare, Clarias gariepinus, fish

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Authors: Shabistana Nisar, Parvez Qamar Rizvi, Sheeraz Malik

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The potential advantage of nanotechnology is comparably marginal due to its unclear benefits in agriculture and insufficiency in public opinion. The nanotech products might solve the pesticide problems of societal concern fairly at acceptable or low risk for consumers and environmental applications. The deleterious effect of chemicals used on crops can be compacted either by reducing the existing active ingredient to nanosize or by plummeting the metals into nanoform. Considering the above facts, an attempt was made to determine the efficacy of nanoelements viz., Silver, Copper Manganese and Neem seed kernel extract (NSKE) for effective management of gram pod borer, Helicoverpa armigera infesting chickpea, being the most damaging pest of large number of crops, gram pod borer was selected as test insect to ascertain the impact of nanoparticles under controlled conditions (25-27 ˚C, 60-80% RH). The respective nanoformulations (0.01, 0.005, 0.003, 0.0025, 0.002, 0.001) were topically applied on 4th instar larvae of pod borer. In general, nanochemicals (silver, copper, manganese, NSKE) produced relatively high mortality at low dilutions (0.01, 0.005, 0.003). The least mortality was however recorded at 0.001 concentration. Nanosilver proved most efficient producing significantly highest (f₄,₂₄=129.56, p < 0.05) mortality 63.13±1.77, 83.21±2.02 and 96.10±1.25 % at 0.01 concentration after 2nd, 4th and 6th day, respectively. The least mortality was however recorded with nanoNSKE. The mortality values obtained at respective days were 21.25±1.50%, 25.20±2.00%, and 56.20±2.25%. Nanocopper and nanomanganese showed slow rate of killing on 2nd day of exposure, but increased (79.20±3.25 and 65.33±1.25) at 0.01 dilution on 3rd day, followed by 83.00±3.50% and 70.20±2.20% mortality on 6thday. The sluggishness coupled with antifeedancy was noticed at early stage of exposure. The change in body colour to brown due to additional melanisation in copper, manganese, and silver treated larvae and demalinization in nanoNSKE exposed larvae was observed at later stage of treatment. Thus, all the nanochemicals applied, produced the significant lethal impact on Helicoverpa armigera and can be used as valuable tool for its effective management.

Keywords: chickpea, helicoverpa armigera, management, nanoparticles

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Authors: Marek Kuźniewski, Magdalena B. Kaziuk , Danuta Fedak, Paulina Dumnicka, Ewa Stępień, Beata Kuśnierz-Cabala, Władysław Sułowicz

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Background: The high prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is observed especially in those undergoing dialysis. Osteoprotegerin (OPG) and its ligands, receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL) and tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) have been associated with cardiovascular complications. Our aim was to study their role as cardiovascular risk factors in stage 5 CKD patients. Methods: OPG, RANKL and TRAIL concentrations were measured in 69 hemodialyzed CKD patients and 35 healthy volunteers. In CKD patients, cardiovascular dysfunction was assessed with aortic pulse wave velocity (AoPWV), carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT), coronary artery calcium score (CaSc) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) serum concentration. Cardiovascular and overall mortality data were collected during a 7-years follow-up. Results: OPG plasma concentrations were higher in CKD patients comparing to controls. Total soluble RANKL was lower and OPG/RANKL ratio higher in patients. Soluble TRAIL concentrations did not differ between the groups and OPG/TRAIL ratio was higher in CKD patients. OPG and OPG/TRAIL positively predicted long-term mortality (all-cause and cardiovascular) in CKD patients. OPG positively correlated with AoPWV, CCA-IMT and NT-proBNP whereas OPG/TRAIL with AoPWV and NT-proBNP. Described relationships were independent of classical and non-classical cardiovascular risk factors, with exception of age. Conclusions: Our study confirmed the role of OPG as a biomarker of cardiovascular dysfunction and a predictor of mortality in stage 5 CKD. OPG/TRAIL ratio can be proposed as a predictor of cardiovascular dysfunction and mortality.

Keywords: osteoprotegerin, tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand, hemodialysis, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease

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Authors: Maria Ines Azambuja

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Graphic displays of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) mortality trends generally uses data aggregated within 5 or 10-year intervals. Technology allows one to increase the amount of processed data. Displaying occurrences by 1-year intervals is a logic first step in the direction of attaining higher quality landscapes of variations in temporal occurrences. Method: 1) Comparison of UK mortality trends plotted by 10-, 5- and 1-year intervals; 2) Comparison of UK and US mortality trends (period X age and cohort X age) displayed by 1-year intervals. Source: Mortality data (period, 1x1, males, 1933-1912) uploaded from the Human Mortality Database to Excel files, where Period X Age and Cohort X Age graphics were produced. The choice of transforming age-specific trends from calendar to birth-cohort years (cohort = period – age) (instead of using cohort 1x1 data available at the HMD resource) was taken to facilitate the comparison of age-specific trends when looking across calendar-years and birth-cohorts. Yearly live births, males, 1933 to 1912 (UK) were uploaded from the HFD. Influenza references are from the literature. Results: 1) The use of 1-year intervals unveiled previously unsuspected period, cohort and interacting period x cohort effects upon all-causes mortality. 2) The UK and US figures showed variations associated with particular calendar years (1936, 1940, 1951, 1957-68, 72) and, most surprisingly, with particular birth-cohorts (1889-90 in the US, and 1900, 1918-19, 1940-41 and 1946-47, in both countries. Also, the figures showed ups and downs in age-specific trends initiated at particular birth-cohorts (1900, 1918-19 and 1947-48) or a particular calendar-year (1968, 1972, 1977-78 in the US), variations at times restricted to just a range of ages (cohort x period interacting effects). Importantly, most of the identified “scars” (period and cohort) correlates with the record of occurrences of Influenza A epidemics since the late 19th Century. Conclusions: The use of 1-year intervals to describe APC mortality trends both increases the amount of information available, thus enhancing the opportunities for patterns’ recognition, and increases our capability of interpreting those patterns by describing trends across smaller intervals of time (period or birth-cohort). The US and the UK mortality landscapes share many but not all 'scars' and distortions suggested here to be associated with influenza epidemics. Different size-effects of wars are evident, both in mortality and in fertility. But it would also be realistic to suppose that the preponderant influenza A viruses circulating in UK and US at the beginning of the 20th Century might be different and the difference to have intergenerational long-term consequences. Compared with the live births trend (UK data), birth-cohort scars clearly depend on birth-cohort sizes relatives to neighbor ones, which, if causally associated with influenza, would result from influenza-related fetal outcomes/selection. Fetal selection could introduce continuing modifications on population patterns of immune-inflammatory phenotypes that might give rise to 'epidemic constitutions' favoring the occurrence of particular diseases. Comparative analysis of mortality landscapes may help us to straight our record of past circulation of Influenza viruses and document associations between influenza recycling and fertility changes.

Keywords: age-period-cohort trends, epidemic constitution, fertility, influenza, mortality

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