Search results for: coverage probability

Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: machine learning, stock market trading, logistic regression, cluster analysis, factor analysis, decision trees, neural networks, automated stock investment system

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Authors: Kenza Benali

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Over the past decade, a number of remarkable projects in urban brownfield reconversion emerged across Canada, including the reconversion of former military bases owned by the Canada Lands Company (CLC) into sustainable communities. However, unlike other developments, the regeneration project of the former Canadian Forces Base Rockcliffe in Ottawa – which was announced as one of the most ambitious Smart growth projects in Canada – faced serious obstacles in terms of social acceptance by the local community, particularly urban minorities composed of Francophones, Indigenous and vulnerable groups who live near or on the Base. This turn of events led to the project being postponed and even reconsidered. Through an analysis of its press coverage, this research aims to understand the causes of this urban conflict which lasted for nearly ten years. The findings reveal that the conflict is not limited to the “standard” issues common to most conflicts related to urban mega-projects in the world – e.g., proximity issues (threads to the quality of the surrounding neighbourhoods; noise, traffic, pollution, New-build gentrification) often associated with NIMBY phenomena. In this case, the local actors questioned the purpose of the project (for whom and for what types of uses is it conceived?), its local implementation (to what extent are the local history and existing environment taken into account?), and the degree of implication of the local population in the decision-making process (with whom is the project built?). Moreover, the interests of the local actors have “jumped scales” and transcend the micro-territorial level of their daily life to take on a national and even international dimension. They defined an alternative view of how this project, considered strategic by his location in the nation’s capital, should be a reference as well as an international showcase of Canadian ambition and achievement in terms of urban sustainability. This vision promoted, actually, a territorial and national identity approach - in which some cultural values are highly significant (respect of social justice, inclusivity, ethnical diversity, cultural heritage, etc.)- as a counterweight to planners’ vision which is criticized as a normative/ universalist logic that ignore the territorial peculiarities.

Keywords: smart growth, brownfield reconversion, sustainable neighborhoods, Canada Lands Company, Canadian Forces Base Rockcliffe, urban conflicts

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Authors: Camille Lacan, Pierre Desmet

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In the crowdfunding model, a campaign succeeds by collecting the funds required over a predefined duration. The success of a CF campaign depends both on the capacity to attract members of the online communities concerned, and on the community members’ involvement in online word-of-mouth recommendations. To maximize the campaign's success probability, project creators (i.e., an organization appealing for financial resources) send messages to contributors to ask them to issue word of mouth. Internet users relay information about projects through Word of Mouth which is defined as “a critical tool for facilitating information diffusion throughout online communities”. The effectiveness of these messages depends on the message framing and the time at which they are sent to contributors (i.e., at the start of the campaign or close to the deadline). This article addresses the following question: What are the effect of message framing and temporal distance on the willingness to share word of mouth? Drawing on Perspectives Theory and Construal Level Theory, this study examines the interplay between message framing (Gains vs. Losses) and temporal distance (message while the deadline is coming vs. far) on intention to share word of mouth. A between-subject experimental design is conducted to test the research model. Results show significant differences between a loss-framed message (lack of benefits if the campaign fails) associated with a short deadline (ending tomorrow) compared to a gain-framed message (benefits if the campaign succeeds) associated with a distant deadline (ending in three months). However, this effect is moderated by the anticipated regret of a campaign failure and the temporal orientation. These moderating effects contribute to specifying the boundary condition of the framing effect. Handling the message framing and the temporal distance are thus the key decisions to influence the willingness to share word of mouth.

Keywords: construal levels, crowdfunding, message framing, word of mouth

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Authors: Juan Cuesta

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Satellite observation is a fundamental component of air pollution monitoring systems, such as the large-scale Copernicus Programme. Next-generation satellite sensors, in orbit or programmed in the future, offer great potential to observe major air pollutants, such as tropospheric ozone, with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage. However, satellite approaches developed for remote sensing of tropospheric ozone are based solely on measurements from a single instrument in a specific spectral range, either thermal infrared or ultraviolet. These methods offer sensitivity to tropospheric ozone located at the lowest at 3 or 4 km altitude above the surface, thus limiting their applications for ozone pollution analysis. Indeed, no current observation of a single spectral domain provides enough information to accurately measure ozone in the atmospheric boundary layer. To overcome this limitation, we have developed a multispectral synergism approach, called "IASI+GOME2", at the Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA) laboratory. This method is based on the synergy of thermal infrared and ultraviolet observations of respectively the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) sensors embedded in MetOp satellites that have been in orbit since 2007. IASI+GOME2 allowed the first satellite observation of ozone plumes located between the surface and 3 km of altitude (what we call the lowermost troposphere), as it offers significant sensitivity in this layer. This represents a major advance for the observation of ozone in the lowermost troposphere and its application to air quality analysis. The ozone abundance derived by IASI+GOME2 shows a good agreement with respect to independent observations of ozone based on ozone sondes (a low mean bias, a linear correlation larger than 0.8 and a mean precision of about 16 %) around the world during all seasons. Using IASI+GOME2, lowermost tropospheric ozone pollution plumes are quantified both in terms of concentrations and also in the amounts of ozone photo-chemically produced along transport and also enabling the characterization of the ozone pollution, such as what occurred during the lockdowns linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. The current paper will show the IASI+GOME2 multispectral approach to observe the lowermost tropospheric ozone from space and an overview of several applications on different continents and at a global scale.

Keywords: ozone pollution, multispectral synergism, satellite, air quality

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Authors: Harman Jaggi, David Steinsaltz, Shripad Tuljapurkar

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Understanding the effect of fluctuations on populations is crucial in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, climate change, and biological invasions, among others. Migration in response to environmental disturbances enables populations to escape unfavorable conditions, benefit from new environments and thereby ride out fluctuations in variable environments. Would populations disperse if there is no uncertainty? Karlin showed in 1982 that when sub-populations experience distinct but fixed growth rates at different sites, greater mixing of populations will lower the overall growth rate relative to the most favorable site. Here we ask if and when environmental variability favors migration over no-migration. Specifically, in random environments, would a small amount of migration increase the overall long-run growth rate relative to the zero migration case? We use analysis and simulations to show how long-run growth rate changes with migration rate. Our results show that when fitness (dis)advantages fluctuate over time across sites, migration may allow populations to benefit from variability. When there is one best site with highest growth rate, the effect of migration on long-run growth rate depends on the difference in expected growth between sites, scaled by the variance of the difference. When variance is large, there is a substantial probability of an inferior site experiencing higher growth rate than its average. Thus, a high variance can compensate for a difference in average growth rates between sites. Positive correlations in growth rates across sites favor less migration. With multiple sites and large fluctuations, the length of shortest cycle (excursion) from the best site (on average) matters, and we explore the interplay between excursion length, average differences between sites and the size of fluctuations. Our findings have implications for conservation biology: even when there are superior sites in a sea of poor habitats, variability and habitat quality across space may be key to determining the importance of migration.

Keywords: migration, variable-environments, random, dispersal, fluctuations, habitat-quality

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Authors: B. Mendonça, D. Sandwell

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The Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP) has suffered from serious water scarcity. Consequently, the most convenient solution has been building wells to extract groundwater from local aquifers. However, it requires constant vigilance to prevent over extraction and future events that can pose serious threat to the population, such as subsidence. Radar imaging techniques (InSAR) have allowed continuous investigation of such phenomena. The analysis of data in the present study consists of 23 SAR images dated from October 2007 to March 2011, obtained by the ALOS-1 spacecraft. Data processing was made with the software GMTSAR, by using the InSAR technique to create pairs of interferograms with ground displacement during different time spans. First results show a correlation between the location of 102 wells registered in 2009 and signals of ground displacement equal or lower than -90 millimeters (mm) in the region. The longest time span interferogram obtained dates from October 2007 to March 2010. As a result, from that interferogram, it was possible to detect the average velocity of displacement in millimeters per year (mm/y), and which areas strong signals have persisted in the MRSP. Four specific areas with signals of subsidence of 28 mm/y to 40 mm/y were chosen to investigate the phenomenon: Guarulhos (Sao Paulo International Airport), the Greater Sao Paulo, Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul. The coverage area of the signals was between 0.6 km and 1.65 km of length. All areas are located above a sedimentary type of aquifer. Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul showed signals varying from 28 mm/y to 32 mm/y. On the other hand, the places most likely to be suffering from stronger subsidence are the ones in the Greater Sao Paulo and Guarulhos, right beside the International Airport of Sao Paulo. The rate of displacement observed in both regions goes from 35 mm/y to 40 mm/y. Previous investigations of the water use at the International Airport highlight the risks of excessive water extraction that was being done through 9 deep wells. Therefore, it is affirmed that subsidence events are likely to occur and to cause serious damage in the area. This study could show a situation that has not been explored with proper importance in the city, given its social and economic consequences. Since the data were only available until 2011, the question that remains is if the situation still persists. It could be reaffirmed, however, a scenario of risk at the International Airport of Sao Paulo that needs further investigation.

Keywords: ground subsidence, Interferometric Satellite Aperture Radar (InSAR), metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, water extraction

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Authors: Geno Paul S. Cumla, Jan Mariel M. Gentiles, M. Brenda Gajelan-Samson

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Eutrophication is a process where in there is a surplus of nutrients present in a lake or river. Harmful cyanobacteria, hypoxia, and primarily algae, which contain toxins, grow because of the excess nutrients. Algal blooms can cause fish kills, limiting the light penetration which reduces growth of aquatic organisms, causing die-offs of plants and produce conditions that are dangerous to aquatic and human life. The main cause for eutrophication is the presence of excessive amounts of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N). Nitrogen is necessary for the production of the plant tissues and is usually used to synthesize proteins. Nitrate is a compound that contains nitrogen, and at elevated levels it can cause harmful effects. Excessive amounts of phosphorus, displaced through human activity, is the major cause of algae growth and as well as degraded water quality. To accomplish this study the Assessment of Soluble inorganic nitrogen (SIN), Assessment of Soluble reactive phosphate (SRP), Determination of Chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration, and Determination of Dominating Taxa were done. The study addresses the high probability of algal blooms in Maqueda Bay by assessing the biotic and abiotic factors of Antiao and Jiabong rivers. The data predicts the overgrowth of algae and to create awareness to prevent the event from taking place. The study assesses the adverse effects that could be prevented by understanding and controlling algae. This should predict future cases of algal blooms and allow government agencies which require data to create programs to prevent and assess these issues.

Keywords: eutrophication, chlorophyll a, nitrogen, phosphorus, red tide, Kjeldahl method, spectrophotometer, assessment of soluble inorganic nitrogen, SIN, assessment of soluble reactive phosphate, SRP

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Authors: Divya Kanchibhotla

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Of all the major health threats to emerge, none has challenged the very foundation of public health so profoundly as the rise of non-communicable diseases (NCD). Encouraging a holistic health approach encompasses the community’s well-being. Competent public health grounded with holistic health approach can lay a better foundation in the modern world. Yoga has been increasingly explored as an adjunct therapy to major disorders. This study explores the efficacy of Yoga as a tool for public health. A survey was administered to 5500 adults, and 300 teens were selected from 25 states of India. The study explored the differences in health, happiness, and sustainable living between Yoga-practitioners and Non-yoga practitioners. The study also explored the practice and habits of yoga practitioners (frequency, place, reasons to practice) and Health, Happiness, and Sustainable Living. The subjects were grouped based on age, education, experience in yoga (years of practice), and occupational background. The study population comprised of 54% males and 46% females. Majority of the respondents (59%) were from 18 to 30 years age group. The study indicated that 96.4% of the total respondents have heard of Yoga. However, only 46.8% of the total study population practice yoga (YP) and the rest 53.2% were non-practitioners (NP). From a perspective of how Yoga and health, 72.7% yoga practitioners asserted a peaceful and happy life, 71.9% yoga practitioners felt satisfaction in life, and 70.2 % yoga practitioners had satisfactory health. 61.9% of yoga practitioners report being vegetarian, not eating junk food, and not drinking alcohol than 38.1% Non-Practitioners population. 47% of yoga practitioners found themselves to be more sensitive to the environment compared to only 40% of non-practitioners. India has been witnessing an unprecedented rise in the NCDs, accounting for 61% deaths. The importance of yoga as an adjunct therapy for various disorders and diseases is gaining momentum across the globe. There are various studies on yoga that have indicated benefits of yoga as a unique holistic approach towards lifestyle and a consistent, complementary solution that could be adopted for long-term viability for a well being. The comprehensive study is the first of its kind that takes a holistic look at the prevalence of Yoga for public health in India. Our study is unique and stands out as it is detailed in its outlook with extensive coverage of almost the whole country (surveying 25 out of 29 states) and contemplates on the benefits to an individual at the grass-root level – physical, mental and social outlook. The insights from the study will enable the health care systems and grassroots organizations to make the holistic practice of Yoga accessible to spread sustainable living for a healthy community.

Keywords: non-communicable disease (NCD), sustainable development goal (SDG 3), public health, healthy living

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Authors: Tahsina Sadeque Kapil Ahmed

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Context: The tobacco epidemic is one of the biggest public health threats the world has ever faced. Tobacco use is a widespread phenomenon in Bangladesh, and that causes numerous deaths and disabilities in a year. The studies conducted elsewhere have strengthened the evidence that mass media campaigns conducted in the context of comprehensive tobacco control programs can promote quitting and reduce smoking, as well as smokeless tobacco prevalence. Awareness building campaigns in mass-media against tobacco use should be prioritized more, and this paper will be an initiative towards enhancing mass-media’s role in controlling tobacco in Bangladesh. Objective: the main objective of this study is to investigate the role of mass-media in controlling tobacco in Bangladesh. Methods: This is a qualitative study and both primary, as well as secondary data were used where information gathered through the Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) and media contents. The employees of media houses (five national papers, two online news portals and six TV channels) were selected as study respondent. Media Content Analysis is used through the broad range of ‘texts’ from transcripts of interviews and discussions along with the materials like reports, footages, advertisements, talk-shows, articles etc. Results: The study result documented several opinions of discussants where Mass media was found to play a strong role in support of the amended tobacco control law and its implication that could be created public support against tobacco farming, exposing to companies’ tactics and other tobacco control activities. The study results also revealed that in controlling tobacco supply and demand effectively, media has been assisting the government and anti-tobacco activities productively. Majority of the Key Informants opined spontaneously on tobacco control program publicity, organizational interference, and influence of other activities on media. They also emphasized role of media for activities of anti-tobacco organizations, awareness building actions, popularization of tobacco control law and its amendment. Conclusion and Recommendation: The study shows evidence that mass media coverage of tobacco control issues is influencing the context of comprehensive tobacco control programs. To reduce tobacco consumption, along with strict enforcement efforts, media should be used to assist with the implementation of the tobacco control law. A sustained nationwide campaign to educate the masses against the dangers of smoking and smokeless tobacco is needed, and media can play an important role in creating further awareness about the dangers associated with tobacco consumption.

Keywords: Bangladesh media, mass media, role of media, tobacco control

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Authors: Donatella Giuliani

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In this research, we propose an unsupervised grayscale image segmentation method based on a combination of the Firefly Algorithm and the Gaussian Mixture Model. Firstly, the Firefly Algorithm has been applied in a histogram-based research of cluster means. The Firefly Algorithm is a stochastic global optimization technique, centered on the flashing characteristics of fireflies. In this context it has been performed to determine the number of clusters and the related cluster means in a histogram-based segmentation approach. Successively these means are used in the initialization step for the parameter estimation of a Gaussian Mixture Model. The parametric probability density function of a Gaussian Mixture Model is represented as a weighted sum of Gaussian component densities, whose parameters are evaluated applying the iterative Expectation-Maximization technique. The coefficients of the linear super-position of Gaussians can be thought as prior probabilities of each component. Applying the Bayes rule, the posterior probabilities of the grayscale intensities have been evaluated, therefore their maxima are used to assign each pixel to the clusters, according to their gray-level values. The proposed approach appears fairly solid and reliable when applied even to complex grayscale images. The validation has been performed by using different standard measures, more precisely: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the Structural Content (SC), the Normalized Correlation Coefficient (NK) and the Davies-Bouldin (DB) index. The achieved results have strongly confirmed the robustness of this gray scale segmentation method based on a metaheuristic algorithm. Another noteworthy advantage of this methodology is due to the use of maxima of responsibilities for the pixel assignment that implies a consistent reduction of the computational costs.

Keywords: clustering images, firefly algorithm, Gaussian mixture model, meta heuristic algorithm, image segmentation

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Authors: Rami Hashish, Manon Limousis-Gayda, Caitlin McCleery

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Introduction: Mild traumatic brain injuries, also referred to as concussions, represent an increasing burden to society. Due to limited objective diagnostic measures, concussions are diagnosed by assessing subjective symptoms, often leading to disputes to their presence. Common biomechanical measures associated with concussion are high linear and/or angular acceleration to the head. With regards to linear acceleration, approximately 80g’s has previously been shown to equate with a 50% probability of concussion. Motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) are a leading cause of concussion, due to high head accelerations experienced. The change in velocity (delta-V) of a vehicle in an MVC is an established metric for impact severity. As acceleration is the rate of delta-V with respect to time, the purpose of this paper is to determine the relation between delta-V (and occupant parameters) with linear head acceleration. Methods: A meta-analysis was conducted for manuscripts collected using the following keywords: head acceleration, concussion, brain injury, head kinematics, delta-V, change in velocity, motor vehicle collision, and rear-end. Ultimately, 280 studies were surveyed, 14 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria as studies investigating the human response to impacts, reporting head acceleration, and delta-V of the occupant’s vehicle. Statistical analysis was conducted with SPSS and R. The best fit line analysis allowed for an initial understanding of the relation between head acceleration and delta-V. To further investigate the effect of occupant parameters on head acceleration, a quadratic model and a full linear mixed model was developed. Results: From the 14 selected studies, 139 crashes were analyzed with head accelerations and delta-V values ranging from 0.6 to 17.2g and 1.3 to 11.1 km/h, respectively. Initial analysis indicated that the best line of fit (Model 1) was defined as Head Acceleration = 0.465

Keywords: acceleration, brain injury, change in velocity, Delta-V, TBI

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Authors: David de Oliveira Costa, Miguel Ângelo Lellis Moreira, Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes, Daniel Augusto de Moura Pereira, Marcos dos Santos

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Strategic management is a fundamental process for global companies that intend to remain competitive in an increasingly dynamic and complex market. To do so, it is necessary to maintain alignment with their principles and values. The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) proposes to ensure that the overall business performance is based on different perspectives (financial, customer, internal processes, and learning and growth). However, relying solely on the BSC may not be enough to ensure the success of strategic management. It is essential that companies also evaluate and prioritize strategic projects that need to be implemented to ensure they are aligned with the business vision and contribute to achieving established goals and objectives. In this context, the proposition involves the incorporation of the SAPEVO-M multicriteria method to indicate the degree of relevance between different perspectives. Thus, the strategic objectives linked to these perspectives have greater weight in the classification of structural projects. Additionally, it is proposed to apply the concept of the Impact & Probability Matrix (I&PM) to structure and ensure that strategic projects are evaluated according to their relevance and impact on the business. By structuring the business's strategic management in this way, alignment and prioritization of projects and actions related to strategic planning are ensured. This ensures that resources are directed towards the most relevant and impactful initiatives. Therefore, the objective of this article is to present the proposal for integrating the BSC methodology, the SAPEVO-M multicriteria method, and the prioritization matrix to establish a concrete weighting of strategic planning and obtain coherence in defining strategic projects aligned with the business vision. This ensures a robust decision-making support process.

Keywords: MCDA process, prioritization problematic, corporate strategy, multicriteria method

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Authors: Mary Kiviiri Nakawuka, Mary Namugalu, Andrew Otiti

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BACKGROUND Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women and seventh overall among all cancers worldwide. It accounts for about 7.5% of all female-cancer deaths with 85% occurring in low and middle-income countries and the first most common female cancer in women aged 15 to 44 years in Uganda with an annual number of new cases at 3,915 and 2,275 annual number of cervical cancer deaths in 2012 (ICO INFORMATION CENTRE ON HPV AND CANCER, 2017).Despite the available free cervical cancer screening services whose uptake has been documented to improve the chances of successful treatment of pre-cancers and cancers among women of reproductive age, there is a low uptake of these services thus we sought to examine the uptake of cervical cancer services and associated factors among women of reproductive age (25-49) attending the ART clinic of KISWA HCII in Kampala, Uganda METHODS The research was carried out in the ART clinic of KISWA HCII among 385 participants. An analytical, cross-sectional study with quantitative methods of data collection was used. The study adopted a non-probability convenience sampling method to select participants. Quantitative data was collected through structured questionnaires. RESULTS 72.2% of the participants were found to have been screened for cervical cancer. 36 % of the screened women had a positive HPV or VIA result ,59.2% of the screened women had a negative HPV or VIA result and 4.8% had an invalid HPV test result. Only 39.5% of the participants had adequate overall knowledge about cervical cancer, more than a third of the participants (50%) had moderate or low knowledge and minority of them (10.5%) had no knowledge. There was no significant association between the uptake of cervical cancer screening services among participants and their socio-demographic characteristics. CONCLUSIONS Although majority of the women surveyed had been screened for cervical cancer, a comparatively large number of participants had inadequate knowledge about cervical cancer and therefore there is still need to continue teaching about cervical cancer and this may include education campaigns, improvements to the accessibility and convenience of the screening services.

Keywords: cervical cancer uptake, cervical cancer screening, women of reproductive age., cervical cancer knowledge

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Authors: P. M. Kundu, L. R. Singo, J. O. Odiyo

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Luvuvhu River catchment in South Africa experiences floods resulting from heavy rainfall of intensities exceeding 15 mm per hour associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The generation of runoff is triggered by the rainfall intensity and soil moisture status. In this study, remote sensing and GIS techniques were used to analyze the hydrologic response to land cover changes. Runoff was calculated as a product of the net precipitation and a curve number coefficient. It was then routed using the Muskingum-Cunge method using a diffusive wave transfer model that enabled the calculation of response functions between start and end point. Flood frequency analysis was determined using theoretical probability distributions. Spatial data on land cover was obtained from multi-temporal Landsat images while data on rainfall, soil type, runoff and stream discharges was obtained by direct measurements in the field and from the Department of Water. A digital elevation model was generated from contour maps available at http://www.ngi.gov.za. The results showed that land cover changes had impacted negatively to the hydrology of the catchment. Peak discharges in the whole catchment were noted to have increased by at least 17% over the period while flood volumes were noted to have increased by at least 11% over the same period. The flood time to peak indicated a decreasing trend, in the range of 0.5 to 1 hour within the years. The synergism between remotely sensed digital data and GIS for land surface analysis and modeling was realized, and it was therefore concluded that hydrologic modeling has potential for determining the influence of changes in land cover on the hydrologic response of the catchment.

Keywords: catchment, digital elevation model, hydrological model, routing, runoff

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Authors: Meng H. Lean, Wei-Ping L. Chu

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The effects of ferroelectric nanofiller size, shape, loading, and polarization, on bipolar charge injection, transport, and recombination through amorphous and semicrystalline polymers are studied. A 3D particle-in-cell model extends the classical electrical double layer representation to treat ferroelectric nanoparticles. Metal-polymer charge injection assumes Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, migration through field-dependent Poole-Frenkel mobility, and recombination with Monte Carlo selection based on collision probability. A boundary integral equation method is used for solution of the Poisson equation coupled with a second-order predictor-corrector scheme for robust time integration of the equations of motion. The stability criterion of the explicit algorithm conforms to the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy limit. Trajectories for charge that make it through the film are curvilinear paths that meander through the interspaces. Results indicate that charge transport behavior depends on nanoparticle polarization with anti-parallel orientation showing the highest leakage conduction and lowest level of charge trapping in the interaction zone. Simulation prediction of a size range of 80 to 100 nm to minimize attachment and maximize conduction is validated by theory. Attached charge fractions go from 2.2% to 97% as nanofiller size is decreased from 150 nm to 60 nm. Computed conductivity of 0.4 x 1014 S/cm is in agreement with published data for plastics. Charge attachment is increased with spheroids due to the increase in surface area, and especially so for oblate spheroids showing the influence of larger cross-sections. Charge attachment to nanofillers and nanocrystallites increase with vol.% loading or degree of crystallinity, and saturate at about 40 vol.%.

Keywords: nanocomposites, nanofillers, electrical double layer, bipolar charge transport

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Authors: Rene Jimenez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Miguel A. Orellana

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On 09/19/2017, a Mw = 7.1 intraslab earthquake occurred in Mexico causing the collapse of about 40 buildings. Many of these were 5- or 6-story buildings with soft first story; so, it is desirable to perform a structural fragility analysis of typical structures representative of those buildings and to propose a reliable structural solution. Here, a typical 5-story building constituted by regular R/C moment-resisting frames in the first story and confined masonry walls in the upper levels, similar to the collapsed structures on the 09/19/2017 Mexico earthquake, is analyzed. Three different structural solutions of the 5-story building are considered: S1) it is designed in accordance with the Mexico City Building Code-2004; S2) then, the column dimensions of the first story corresponding to S1 are reduced, and S3) viscous dampers are added at the first story of solution S2. A number of dynamic incremental analyses are performed for each structural solution, using a 3D structural model. The hysteretic behavior model of the masonry was calibrated with experiments performed at the Laboratory of Structures at UNAM. Ten seismic ground motions are used to excite the structures; they correspond to ground motions recorded in intermediate soil of Mexico City with a dominant period around 1s, where the structures are located. The fragility curves of the buildings are obtained for different values of the maximum inter-story drift demands. Results show that solutions S1 and S3 give place to similar probabilities of exceedance of a given value of inter-story drift for the same seismic intensity, and that solution S2 presents a higher probability of exceedance for the same seismic intensity and inter-story drift demand. Therefore, it is concluded that solution S3 (which corresponds to the building with soft first story and energy dissipation devices) can be a reliable solution from the structural point of view.

Keywords: demand hazard analysis, fragility curves, incremental dynamic analyzes, soft-first story, structural capacity

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Authors: Collen Kawiya

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In an effort of reducing post-harvest losses and improving the supply of quality fish products in Malawi, the fish solar tent dryers have been designed in the southern part of Lake Malawi for processing small fish species under the project of Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF). This study was done to promote the adoption of the fish solar tent dryers by the many small scale fish processors in Malawi through the assessment of the economic viability of these dryers. With the use of the project’s baseline survey data, a business model for a constructed ‘ready for use’ solar tent dryer was developed where investment appraisal techniques were calculated in addition with the sensitivity analysis. The study also conducted a risk analysis through the use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a probabilistic net present value was found. The investment appraisal results showed that the net present value was US$8,756.85, the internal rate of return was 62% higher than the 16.32% cost of capital and the payback period was 1.64 years. The sensitivity analysis results showed that only two input variables influenced the fish solar dryer investment’s net present value. These are the dried fish selling prices that were correlating positively with the net present value and the fresh fish buying prices that were negatively correlating with the net present value. Risk analysis results showed that the chances that fish processors will make a loss from this type of investment are 17.56%. It was also observed that there exist only a 0.20 probability of experiencing a negative net present value from this type of investment. Lastly, the study found that the net present value of the fish solar tent dryer’s investment is still robust in spite of any changes in the levels of investors risk preferences. With these results, it is concluded that the fish solar tent dryers in Malawi are an economically viable investment because they are able to improve the returns in the fish processing activity. As such, fish processors need to adopt them by investing their money to construct and use them.

Keywords: investment appraisal, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, solar tent drying

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Authors: M. Bagheri Varzaneh, H. R. Rahmani, R. Jahanian

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The present study aimed to investigate the effects of copper-methionine on ascites incidence and hematological, morphological and enzymatic responses in broiler chickens. A total of 480 one-day-old Ross 308 broiler chicks were used in a completely randomized design in a 2×3 factorial arrangement of treatments including two ambient temperatures (thermoneutral and cold stress) and three copper levels (0, 100, and 200 mg/kg as copper-methionine) with 4 replicates (20 birds in each replicate). Broilers were kept in an environmentally-controlled room from 1 to 28 days; then, half of them exposed to cold temperature from 28 to 45 days of age. The birds were sacrificed at days 38 and 45 of age. Heparinized blood samples were collected to measure hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration, red blood cell (RBC) count, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST). Heart, lungs, liver, and spleen were collected and weighed separately on a sensitive digital scale. At d 38 of age, none of hematological variables, enzymatic parameters, and relative weights of organs were affected by treatments. Ascitic broilers were observed in group subjected to cold temperature and control diet (without supplemental copper) at d 45 of age. Relative weight of lungs and relative weight of heart in broilers fed on copper-methionine supplemented diets in cold temperature were lower compared with other groups. Relative liver weight, ALT, AST activities, and hematological parameters such as hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration, red blood cell count in ascitic broilers were significantly increased. In contrast, a significant decrease of the relative weight of spleen was shown in these chickens. The results showed that dietary supplementation with copper–methionine can decrease probability of ascites incidence in broilers chicks, especially under cold condition.

Keywords: ascites, cold temperature, copper-methionine, cold-stressed broiler

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Authors: S. Ahmed John

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Marine forms-bacteria, actinobacteria, cynobacteria, fungi, microalgae, seaweeds mangroves and other halophytes an extremely important oceanic resources and constituting over 90% of the oceanic biomass. The marine natural products have lead to the discovery of many compounds considered worthy for clinical applications. The marine sources have the highest probability of yielding natural products. Natural derivatives play an important role to prevent the cancer incidences as synthetic drug transformation in mangrove. 28.12% of anticancer compound extracted from the mangroves. Exchocaria agollocha has the anti cancer compounds. The present investigation reveals the potential of the Exchocaria agollocha with biotechnological applications for anti cancer, antimicrobial drug discovery, environmental remediation, and developing new resources for the industrial process. The anti-cancer activity of Exchocaria agollocha was screened from 3.906 to 1000 µg/ml of concentration with the dilution leads to 1:1 to 1:128 following methanol and chloroform extracts. The cell viability in the Exchocaria agollocha was maximum at the lower concentration where as low at the higher concentration of methanol and chloroform extracts when compare to control. At 3.906 concentration, 85.32 and 81.96 of cell viability was found at 1:128 dilution of methanol and chloroform extracts respectively. At the concentration of 31.25 following 1:16 dilution, the cell viability was 65.55 in methanol and 45.55 in chloroform extracts. However, at the higher concentration, the cell viability 22.35 and 8.12 was recorded in the extracts of methanol and chloroform. The cell viability was more in methanol when compare to chloroform extracts at lower concentration. The present findings gives current trends in screening and the activity analysis of metabolites from mangrove resources and to expose the models to bring a new sustain for tackling cancer. Bioactive compounds of Exchocaria agollocha have extensive use in treatment of many diseases and serve as a compound and templates for synthetic modification.

Keywords: bio-active product, compounds, natural products and microalgae

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Authors: Nditsheni Ramakuela, Sonto Maputle, Base Khoza, Augustine Tugli

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Inadequate health literacy can cause difficulties in understanding and compliance to treatment plan. With diabetic condition, self-care activities include behaviours of following a diet plan, avoiding high fat foods, increased exercise, self-glucose monitoring, and foot care. Patients with poor health literacy have difficulty interpreting medication warning labels, following directions on a prescription label and identifying their medications. Difficulties in understanding and performing self-care and health-related activities may ultimately lead to poor health outcomes. The study explored and described factors affecting health literacy and self-care to diabetic regimen by female patients at selected hospital in Limpopo Province of South Africa. Qualitative and explorative research design was used. Female patients who were admitted and diagnosed with diabetes in female medical ward constituted the study population. Non-probability, purposive sampling was used to select 20 female patients diagnosed with diabetes, who were above 18 years and admitted during April–November 2014. An in-depth face-to-face, unstructured interview was used to collect data. Data were analysed using open coding method. Measures to ensure trustworthiness and ethical considerations were adhered to. Findings revealed factors affecting health literacy for diabetic self-care activities amongst patients were; patient, family, disease and facility related. Proposed recommendations were; to strengthen diabetes education and patient-provider partnership. This is important and must be transferred to strengthen self-care activities to fully benefit the patient.

Keywords: compliance, diabetes mellitus, diabetic regimen, health literacy, self activities

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Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Dawit Wolday, Muhamud Abdulkader

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Background: COVID-19 symptomatology in Africa appears significantly less serious than in the industrialized world. Our hypothesis for this phenomenon, being a different, more activated immune system due to parasite infections contributes to reduced COVID-19 outcome. We investigated this hypothesis in an endemic area in sub sub-saharan Africa. Methods: Ethiopian COVID-19 patients were enrolled and screened for intestinal parasites, between July 2020 and March 2021. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with severe COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on samples obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs, while direct microscopic examination, modified Ritchie concentration, and Kato-Katz methods were used to identify parasites and ova from a fresh stool sample. Ordinal logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between parasite infection and COVID-19 severity. Models were adjusted for sex, age, residence, education level, occupation, body mass index, and comorbidities. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 751 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were enrolled, of whom 284 (37•8%) had an intestinal parasitic infection. Only 27/255 (10•6%) severe COVID-19 patients were co-infected with intestinal parasites, while 257/496 (51•8%) non-severe COVID-19 patients appeared parasite positive (p<0.0001). Patients co-infected with parasites had lower odds of developing severe COVID-19, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0•14 (95% CI 0•09–0•24; p<0•0001) for all parasites, AOR 0•20 ([95% CI 0•11–0•38]; p<0•0001) for protozoa, and AOR 0•13 ([95% CI 0•07–0•26]; p<0•0001) for helminths. When stratified by species, co-infection with Entamoeba spp., Hymenolopis nana, and Schistosoma mansoni implied a lower probability of developing severe COVID-19. There were 11 deaths (1•5%), and all were among patients without parasites (p=0•009). Conclusions: Parasite co-infection is associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 in African patients. Parasite-driven immunomodulatory responses may mute hyper-inflammation associated with severe COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, intestinal parasite, RT-PCR, co-infection

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Authors: Ahmed Bolaji Alarape, Oluwatobi Damilola Aba, Usman Shehu

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Wood plastic composite boards were made from sawn dust of Cordia alliodora and recycled polyethylene at a mixing ratio of 1.5ratio1, 2.5ratio1 and 3.5ratio1 and nominal densities of 600 kilograms per meter cube, 700 kilograms per meter cube, and 800 kilograms per meter cube, The material was hot pressed at 150-degree celsius to produce board of 250 millimeter by 250 millimeter by 6 millimeter of which 18 boards were produced. The experiment was subject to 3 by 3 factorial experiments in Completely Randomised Design (CRD). Analysis of variance and Duncan Multiple Range Test (DMRT) was adopted by 3 by 3 at 5 percent probability. The strength properties of the boards such as modulus of rupture (MOR) and modulus of elasticity (MOE) were investigated, while the dimensional properties of the board such as the water absorption (WA) and thickness swelling (TS) were as well determined after 12hrs and 24hrs of water immersion. The result showed that the mean values of MOE ranged from 9100.73 Newtons per square millimeters to 12086.96 Newtons per square millimeters while MOR values ranged from 48.26 Newtons per square millimeters to 103.09 Newtons per square millimeters. The values of WA and TS after 12hrs immersion ranged from 1.21 percent to 1.56 percent and 0.00 percent to 0.13 percent, respectively. The values of WA and TS after 24hrs of water immersion ranged from 1.66 percent to 2.99 percent and 0.02 percent to 0.18 percent, respectively. The higher the value of board density and the high-density polythene /sawdust ratio, the stronger, the stiffer and more dimensionally stable the wood plastic composite boards obtained. In addition, as the density of the board increases, the strength property of the boards increases. Hence the board will be suitable for internal construction materials.

Keywords: wood Plastic composite, modulus of rupture, modulus of elasticity, dimensional stability

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Lola Brasseur, Guillaume Caulier, Marie Demeyer, Pascal Gerbaux, Igor Eeckhaut

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Seawater being an ideal dispersing agent, chemical communication stays predominant in marine ecosystems. However, if many molecules acting in chemical heterospecific communication have already been well described in terrestrial ecosystems, only three of these molecules were identified in marine ecosystems. Echinoderms and their symbiotic organisms constitute very good models to study heterospecific chemical communication because each class synthesizes a specific type of molecules and symbioses with echinoderms as hosts are very usual. In this study, the chemical communication that allows the commensal shrimps Tuleariocaris holthuisi Hipeau-Jacquotte, 1965 to live with their host Echinometra mathaei (Blainville, 1825) was investigated. The chemoreception of the shrimp was characterized using olfactometers and it was demonstrated that hosts and synthetic hydroxynaphthoquinones are attractive to the symbiotic shrimps. Hydroxynaphthoquinonic pigments also known as spinochromes are by the way synthesized by sea urchin and involved in all probability in a lot of mechanisms. To our knowledge, this study is the first highlighting the ecological function of naphthoquinones as kairomones. Chemical extractions were also performed on sea urchins in order to analyze and identify their specific hydroxynaphthoquinones using HPLC-ESI-MS. Accurate mass identification and elemental composition have been performed on various organs (gonads, coelomic liquid, digestive system and test) in different morphotypes of Echinometra mathaei for a better understanding of the molecular diversity of these semiochemicals. Moreover, some experiments were performed to investigate the dependence of T. holthuisi for their host. First, the analyses showed that the molecules involved in shrimp pigmentation are the same that the ones involved in E. mathaei, suggesting a potential feeding on the host. Secondly, a substantial shrimp depigmentation and an increase of the mortality rate were demonstrated after the symbionts-host separation which could mean a potential implication of spinochromes in the shrimp metabolism.

Keywords: crustacean, sea urchin, spinochrome, symbiosis

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Authors: Sonto Maputle

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Background: Support during labour increase women's chances of having positive childbirth experiences as well as childbirth outcomes. The purpose of this study was to determine the support provided by midwives to women during labour at the public hospital in Limpopo Province. The study was conducted at the Tertiary hospital in Limpopo Province. Methods: A qualitative, participant observation approach was used. Population consisted of all women that were admitted to deliver their babies and the midwives who provided midwifery care in the obstetric unit of one tertiary public hospital in Limpopo Province. Non-probability, purposive and convenience sampling were used to sample 24 women and 12 midwives. Data were collected through participant observations which included unstructured conversations with the use of observational guide, field notes of events and conversations that occurred when women interact with midwives were recorded verbatim and a Visual Analog Scale to complement the observations. Data was analysed qualitatively but were presented in the tables and bar graphs. Results: Five themes emerged as support provided by midwives during labour, namely; communication between women and midwives, informational support, emotional support activities, interpretation of the experienced labour pain and supportive care activities during labour. Conclusion: The communication was occurring when the midwife was rendering midwifery care and very limited for empowering. The information sharing focused on the assistive actions rather than on the activities that would promote mothers’ participation. The emotional support activities indicated lack of respect and disregard cultural preferences and this contributed to inability to exercise choices in decision-making. The study recommended the implementation of Batho Pele principles in order to provide woman-centred care during labour.

Keywords: communication between women and midwives, labour pains, informational and emotional support, physical comforting measures

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Authors: A. Pietro Rimoldi, B. Anilkumar Gopinath, C. Minimol Korulla

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Coastal engineering structure is conventionally designed for a shorter planning horizon usually 20 years. These structures are subjected to different offshore climatic externalities like waves, tides, tsunamis etc. during the design life period. The probability of occurrence of these different offshore climatic externalities varies. The impact frequently caused by these externalities on the structures is of concern because it has a significant bearing on the capital /operating cost of the project. There can also be repeated short time occurrence of these externalities in the assumed planning horizon which can cause heavy damage to the conventional coastal structure which are mainly made of rock. A replacement of the damaged portion to prevent complete collapse is time consuming and expensive when dealing with hard rock structures. But if coastal structures are made of Geo-synthetic containment systems such replacement is quickly possible in the time period between two successive occurrences. In order to have a better knowledge and to enhance the predictive capacity of these occurrences, this study estimates risk of encounter within the design life period of various externalities based on the concept of exponential distribution. This gives an idea of the frequency of occurrences which in turn gives an indication of whether replacement is necessary and if so at what time interval such replacements have to be effected. To validate this theoretical finding, a pilot project has been taken up in the field so that the impact of the externalities can be studied both for a hard rock and a Geosynthetic tube structure. The paper brings out the salient feature of a case study which pertains to a project in which Geosynthetic tubes have been used for reformation of a seawall adjacent to a conventional rock structure in Alappuzha coast, Kerala, India. The effectiveness of the Geosystem in combatting the impact of the short-term externalities has been brought out.

Keywords: climatic externalities, exponential distribution, geosystems, planning horizon

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Authors: Cornelius Michael Ekenta, Aderonke Bashirat Mohammed, Sefi Ahmed

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The research examined the impact of flooding on food calorie intake and health challenges among smallholder farm households in Koton Karfe Local Government Area of Kogi State, Nigeria. Purposive and random sampling techniques were used to select 130 farm households in selected villages in the area. Primary data were generated through the administration of a well-structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, Double Difference Estimator (DDE), Calorie Intake Estimation Function, t-test, and multiple regressions. The result shows that farm households lost an average of 132, 950kg of selected crops amounting to about N20m ($56, 542) loose in income. Food daily calorie intake indicates a loss of an average of 715.18Kcal, showing a significant difference in calorie intake before and after flooding (t = 2.0629) at 5% probability. Furthermore, the health challenges most prevalent during flooding were malaria fever, typhoid fever, cholera, and dysentery. The determinants of daily calorie intake were age, household size, level of income, flooding, health challenges, and food price. The study concluded that flooding had negative impacts on crop output and income, daily food calorie intact, and health challenges of a farm household in the study area. It was recommended that the State Government should make adequate and proper arrangements to relocate residents of the area at the warning of possible flooding by the National Metrological Centre and should, through the State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA), provide relieve items to the residents to cushion the effects of the flooding.

Keywords: calorie, cholera, flooding, health challenges, impact

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Authors: Sakshi Dhumale, Madhushree C., Amba Shetty

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The effect of station density on the geostatistical prediction of groundwater levels is of critical importance to ensure accurate and reliable predictions. Monitoring station density directly impacts the accuracy and reliability of geostatistical predictions by influencing the model's ability to capture localized variations and small-scale features in groundwater levels. This is particularly crucial in regions with complex hydrogeological conditions and significant spatial heterogeneity. Insufficient station density can result in larger prediction uncertainties, as the model may struggle to adequately represent the spatial variability and correlation patterns of the data. On the other hand, an optimal distribution of monitoring stations enables effective coverage of the study area and captures the spatial variability of groundwater levels more comprehensively. In this study, we investigate the effect of station density on the predictive performance of groundwater levels using the geostatistical technique of Ordinary Kriging. The research utilizes groundwater level data collected from 121 observation wells within the semi-arid Berambadi watershed, gathered over a six-year period (2010-2015) from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru. The dataset is partitioned into seven subsets representing varying sampling densities, ranging from 15% (12 wells) to 100% (121 wells) of the total well network. The results obtained from different monitoring networks are compared against the existing groundwater monitoring network established by the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB). The findings of this study demonstrate that higher station densities significantly enhance the accuracy of geostatistical predictions for groundwater levels. The increased number of monitoring stations enables improved interpolation accuracy and captures finer-scale variations in groundwater levels. These results shed light on the relationship between station density and the geostatistical prediction of groundwater levels, emphasizing the importance of appropriate station densities to ensure accurate and reliable predictions. The insights gained from this study have practical implications for designing and optimizing monitoring networks, facilitating effective groundwater level assessments, and enabling sustainable management of groundwater resources.

Keywords: station density, geostatistical prediction, groundwater levels, monitoring networks, interpolation accuracy, spatial variability

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Authors: Maryam Hajibaba, Mohsen Soltanpour, Mehrnoosh Abbasian, S. Abbas Haghshenas

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This paper aims to evaluate the main role of mangroves forests on the unique hydrodynamic characteristics of the Khuran Strait (KS) in the Persian Gulf. Investigation of hydrodynamic conditions of KS is vital to predict and estimate sedimentation and erosion all over the protected areas north of Qeshm Island. KS (or Tang-e-Khuran) is located between Qeshm Island and the Iranian mother land and has a minimum width of approximately two kilometers. Hydrodynamics of the strait is dominated by strong tidal currents of up to 2 m/s. The bathymetry of the area is dynamic and complicated as 1) strong currents do exist in the area which lead to seemingly sand dune movements in the middle and southern parts of the strait, and 2) existence a vast area with mangrove coverage next to the narrowest part of the strait. This is why ordinary modeling schemes with normal mesh resolutions are not capable for high accuracy estimations of current fields in the KS. A comprehensive set of measurements were carried out with several components, to investigate the hydrodynamics and morpho-dynamics of the study area, including 1) vertical current profiling at six stations, 2) directional wave measurements at four stations, 3) water level measurements at six stations, 4) wind measurements at one station, and 5) sediment grab sampling at 100 locations. Additionally, a set of periodic hydrographic surveys was included in the program. The numerical simulation was carried out by using Delft3D – Flow Module. Model calibration was done by comparing water levels and depth averaged velocity of currents against available observational data. The results clearly indicate that observed data and simulations only fit together if a realistic perspective of the mangrove area is well captured by the model bathymetry data. Generating unstructured grid by using RGFGRID and QUICKIN, the flow model was driven with water level time-series at open boundaries. Adopting the available field data, the key role of mangrove area on the hydrodynamics of the study area can be studied. The results show that including the accurate geometry of the mangrove area and consideration of its sponge-like behavior are the key aspects through which a realistic current field can be simulated in the KS.

Keywords: Khuran Strait, Persian Gulf, tide, current, Delft3D

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Authors: Athanasia Eirini Zarkadi, Despoina Balli, Olga Elpis Kolokitha

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Objective: Impacted maxillary canines are a frequent condition and a common reason for patients seeking orthodontic treatment. Their simultaneous presence with dental anomalies raises a question about their possible connection. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of maxillary impacted canines with dental anomalies. Materials and Methods: Files of 874 patients from an orthodontic private practice in Greece were evaluated for the presence of maxillary impacted canines. From this sample, a group of 97 patients (39 males and 58 females) with at least one impacted maxillary canine were selected and consisted of the study group (canine impaction group) of this study. This group was compared to a control group of 97 patients (42 males and 55 females) that was created by random selection from the initial sample without maxillary canine impaction. The impaction diagnosis was made from the panoramic radiographs and confirmed from the surgery. The association between maxillary canine impaction and dental anomalies was examined with the chi-square test. A classification tree was created to further investigate the relations between impaction and dental anomalies. The reproducibility of diagnoses was assessed by re-examining the records of 25 patients two weeks after the first examination. Results: The found associated anomalies were cone-shaped upper lateral incisors and infraocclusion of deciduous molars. There is a significant increase in the prevalence of 12,4% of distal displacement of the unerupted mandibular second premolar in the canine impaction group compared to the control group that was 7,2%. The classification tree showed that the presence of a cone-shaped maxillary lateral incisor gave rise to the probability of an impacted canine to 83,3%. Conclusions: The presence of cone-shaped maxillary lateral incisors and infraocclusion of deciduous molars can be considered valuable early risk indicators for maxillary canine impaction.

Keywords: cone-shaped maxillary lateral incisors, dental anomalies, impacted canines, infraoccluded deciduous molars

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