Search results for: differential predictive coding
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3154

Search results for: differential predictive coding

874 Helicopter Exhaust Gases Cooler in Terms of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Analysis

Authors: Mateusz Paszko, Ksenia Siadkowska

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Due to the low-altitude and relatively low-speed flight, helicopters are easy targets for actual combat assets e.g. infrared-guided missiles. Current techniques aim to increase the combat effectiveness of the military helicopters. Protection of the helicopter in flight from early detection, tracking and finally destruction can be realized in many ways. One of them is cooling hot exhaust gasses, emitting from the engines to the atmosphere in special heat exchangers. Nowadays, this process is realized in ejective coolers, where strong heat and momentum exchange between hot exhaust gases and cold air ejected from atmosphere takes place. Flow effects of air, exhaust gases; mixture of those two and the heat transfer between cold air and hot exhaust gases are given by differential equations of: Mass transportation–flow continuity, ejection of cold air through expanding exhaust gasses, conservation of momentum, energy and physical relationship equations. Calculation of those processes in ejective cooler by means of classic mathematical analysis is extremely hard or even impossible. Because of this, it is necessary to apply the numeric approach with modern, numeric computer programs. The paper discussed the general usability of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in a process of projecting the ejective exhaust gases cooler cooperating with helicopter turbine engine. In this work, the CFD calculations have been performed for ejective-based cooler cooperating with the PA W3 helicopter’s engines.

Keywords: aviation, CFD analysis, ejective-cooler, helicopter techniques

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873 A Study of a Plaque Inhibition Through Stenosed Bifurcation Artery considering a Biomagnetic Blood Flow and Elastic Walls

Authors: M. A. Anwar, K. Iqbal, M. Razzaq

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Background and Objectives: This numerical study reflects the magnetic field's effect on the reduction of plaque formation due to stenosis in a stenosed bifurcated artery. The entire arterythe wall is assumed as linearly elastic, and blood flow is modeled as a Newtonian, viscous, steady, incompressible, laminar, biomagnetic fluid. Methods: An Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) technique is employed to formulate the hemodynamic flow in a bifurcated artery under the effect of the asymmetric magnetic field by two-way Fluid-structure interaction coupling. A stable P2P1 finite element pair is used to discretize thenonlinear system of partial differential equations. The resulting nonlinear system of algebraic equations is solved by the Newton Raphson method. Results: The numerical results for displacement, velocity magnitude, pressure, and wall shear stresses for Reynolds numbers, Re = 500, 1000, 1500, 2000, in the presence of magnetic fields are presented graphically. Conclusions: The numerical results show that the presence of the magnetic field influences the displacement and flows velocity magnitude considerably. The magnetic field reduces the flow separation, recirculation area adjacent to stenosis and gives rise to wall shear stress.

Keywords: bifurcation, elastic walls, finite element, wall shear stress,

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872 Comparative Analysis of Water-Based Alumina Nanoparticles with Water-Based Cupric Nanoparticles Past an Exponentially Accelerated Vertical Radiative Riga Plate with Heat Transfer

Authors: Kanayo Kenneth Asogwa

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The influence of the flow of nanoparticles in nanofluids across a vertical surface is significant, and its application in medical sciences, engineering, pharmaceutical, and food industries is enormous & widely published. However, the comparative examination of alumina nanoparticles with cupric nanoparticles past a rapid progressive Riga plate remains unknown. Thus, this report investigates water-based alumina and cupric nanoparticles passing through an exponentially accelerated Riga plate. Nanofluids containing copper (II) oxide (CuO) and aluminum oxide (Al2O3) nanoparticles are considered. The Laplace transform technique is used to solve the partial differential equations guiding the flow. The effect of various factors on skin friction coefficient, Nusselt number, velocity and temperature profiles is investigated and reported in tabular and graphical form. The upsurge of Modified Hartmann number and radiative impact improves copper (II) oxide nanofluid compared to aluminum oxide nanofluid due to Lorentz force and since CuO is a better heat conductor. At the same time, heat absorption and reactive species favor a slight decline in Alumina nanofluid than Cupric nanofluid in the thermal and velocity fields. The higher density of Cupric nanofluid is enhanced by increasing nanoparticle volume fraction over Alumina nanofluid with a decline in velocity distribution.

Keywords: alumina, cupric, nanoparticles, water-based

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871 Climate Change Adaptation: Methodologies and Tools to Define Resilience Scenarios for Existing Buildings in Mediterranean Urban Areas

Authors: Francesca Nicolosi, Teresa Cosola

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Climate changes in Mediterranean areas, such as the increase of average seasonal temperatures, the urban heat island phenomenon, the intensification of solar radiation and the extreme weather threats, cause disruption events, so that climate adaptation has become a pressing issue. Due to the strategic role that the built heritage holds in terms of environmental impact and energy waste and its potentiality, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability and the adaptive capacity of the existing building to climate change, in order to define different mitigation scenarios. The aim of this research work is to define an optimized and integrated methodology for the assessment of resilience levels and adaptation scenarios for existing buildings in Mediterranean urban areas. Moreover, the study of resilience indicators allows us to define building environmental and energy performance in order to identify the design and technological solutions for the improvement of the building and its urban area potentialities. The methodology identifies step-by-step different phases, starting from the detailed study of characteristic elements of urban system: climatic, natural, human, typological and functional components are analyzed in their critical factors and their potential. Through the individuation of the main perturbing factors and the vulnerability degree of the system to the risks linked to climate change, it is possible to define mitigation and adaptation scenarios. They can be different, according to the typological, functional and constructive features of the analyzed system, divided into categories of intervention, and characterized by different analysis levels (from the single building to the urban area). The use of software simulations allows obtaining information on the overall behavior of the building and the urban system, to generate predictive models in the medium and long-term environmental and energy retrofit and to make a comparative study of the mitigation scenarios identified. The studied methodology is validated on a case study.

Keywords: climate impact mitigation, energy efficiency, existing building heritage, resilience

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870 Electro-oxidation of Catechol in the Presence of Nicotinamide at Different pH

Authors: M. A. Motin, M. A. Aziz, M. Hafiz Mia, M. A. Hasem

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The redox behavior of catechol in the presence of nicotinamide as nucleophiles has been studied in aqueous solution with various pH values and different concentration of nicotinamide using cyclic voltammetry and differential pulse voltammetry. Cyclic voltammetry of catechol in buffer solution (3.00 < pH < 9.00) shows one anodic and corresponding cathodic peak which relates to the transformation of catechol to corresponding o-benzoquinone and vice versa within a quasi reversible two electron transfer process. Cyclic voltammogram of catechol in the presence of nicotinamide in buffer solution of pH 7, show one anodic peak in the first cycle of potential and on the reverse scan the corresponding cathodic peak slowly decreases and new peak is observed at less positive potential. In the second cycle of potential a new anodic peak is observed at less positive potential. This indicates that nicotinamide attached with catechol and formed adduct after first cycle of oxidation. The effect of pH of catechol in presence of nicotinamide was studied by varying pH from 3 to 11. The substitution reaction of catechol with nicotimamide is facilitated at pH 7. In buffer solution of higher pH (>9), the CV shows different pattern. The effect of concentration of nicotinamide was studied by 2mM to 100 mM. The maximum substitution reaction has been found for 50 mM of nicotinamide and of pH 7. The proportionality of the first scan anodic and cathodic peak currents with square root of scan rate suggests that the peak current of the species at each redox reaction is controlled by diffusion process. The current functions (1/v-1/2) of the anodic peak decreased with the increasing of scan rate demonstrated that the behavior of the substitution reaction is of ECE type.

Keywords: redox interaction, catechol, nicotinamide, substituion reaction, pH effect

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869 Psychological Factors Predicting Social Distance during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Empirical Investigation

Authors: Calogero Lo Destro

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Numerous nations around the world are facing exceptional challenges in employing measures to stop the spread of COVID-19. Following the recommendations of the World Health Organization, a series of preventive measures have been adopted. However, individuals must comply with these rules and recommendations in order to make these measures effective. While COVID-19 was climaxing, it seemed of crucial importance to analyze which psychosocial factors contribute to the acceptance of such preventive behavior, thus favoring the management of COVID-19 worldwide health crisis. In particular, the identification of aspects related to obstacles and facilitation of adherence to social distancing has been considered crucial in the containment of the virus spread. Since the virus was firstly detected in China, Asian people could be considered a relevant outgroup targeted for exclusion. We also hypothesized social distance could be influenced by characteristics of the target, such as smiling or coughing. 260 participants participated in this research on a voluntary basis. They filled a survey designed to explore a series of COVID-19 measures (such as exposure to virus and fear of infection). We also assessed participants state and trait anxiety. The dependent variable was social distance, based on a measure of seating distance designed ad hoc for the present work. Our hypothesis that participants could report greater distance in response to Asian people was not confirmed. On the other hand, significantly lower distance in response to smiling compared to coughing targets was reported. Adopting a regression analysis model, we found that participants' social distance, in response to both coughing and smiling targets, was predicted by fear of infection and by the perception COVID-19 could become a pandemic. Social distance in response to the coughing target was also significantly and positively predicted by age and state anxiety. In summary, the present work has sought to identify a set of psychological variables, which may still be predictive of social distancing.

Keywords: COVID-19, social distancing, health, preventive behaviors, risk of infection

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868 Propeller Performance Modeling through a Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis Method

Authors: Maxime Alex Junior Kuitche, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez, Jean-Chirstophe Maunand

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The evolution of aircraft is closely linked to the study and improvement of propulsion systems. Determining the propulsion performance is a real challenge in aircraft modeling and design. In addition to theoretical methodologies, experimental procedures are used to obtain a good estimation of the propulsion performances. For piston-propeller propulsion, the propeller needs several experimental tests which could be extremely demanding in terms of time and money. This paper presents a new procedure to estimate the performance of a propeller from a numerical approach using computational fluid dynamic analysis. The propeller was initially scanned, and then, its 3D model was represented using CATIA. A structured meshing and Shear Stress Transition k-ω turbulence model were applied to describe accurately the flow pattern around the propeller. Thus, the Partial Differential Equations were solved using ANSYS FLUENT software. The method was applied on the UAS-S45’s propeller designed and manufactured by Hydra Technologies in Mexico. An extensive investigation was performed for several flight conditions in terms of altitudes and airspeeds with the aim to determine thrust coefficients, power coefficients and efficiency of the propeller. The Computational Fluid Dynamics results were compared with experimental data acquired from wind tunnel tests performed at the LARCASE Price-Paidoussis wind tunnel. The results of this comparison have demonstrated that our approach was highly accurate.

Keywords: CFD analysis, propeller performance, unmanned aerial system propeller, UAS-S45

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867 In Silico Analysis of Salivary miRNAs to Identify the Diagnostic Biomarkers for Oral Cancer

Authors: Andleeb Zahra, Itrat Rubab, Sumaira Malik, Amina Khan, Muhammad Jawad Khan, M. Qaiser Fatmi

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Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Recent studies have highlighted the role of miRNA in disease pathology, indicating its potential use in an early diagnostic tool. miRNAs are small, double stranded, non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by deregulating mRNAs. miRNAs play important roles in modifying various cellular processes such as cell growth, differentiation, apoptosis, and immune response. Dis-regulated expression of miRNAs is known to affect the cell growth, and this may function as tumor suppressors or oncogenes in various cancers. Objectives: The main objectives of this study were to characterize the extracellular miRNAs involved in oral cancer (OC) to assist early detection of cancer as well as to propose a list of genes that can potentially be used as biomarkers of OC. We used gene expression data by microarrays already available in literature. Materials and Methods: In the first step, a total of 318 miRNAs involved in oral carcinoma were shortlisted followed by the prediction of their target genes. Simultaneously, the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) of oral carcinoma from all experiments were identified. The common genes between lists of DEGs of OC based on experimentally proven data and target genes of each miRNA were identified. These common genes are the targets of specific miRNA, which is involved in OC. Finally, a list of genes was generated which may be used as biomarker of OC. Results and Conclusion: In results, we included some of pathways in cancer to show the change in gene expression under the control of specific miRNA. Ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA) provided a list of major biomarkers like CDH2, CDK7 and functional enrichment analysis identified the role of miRNA in major pathways like cell adhesion molecules pathway affected by cancer. We observed that at least 25 genes are regulated by maximum number of miRNAs, and thereby, they can be used as biomarkers of OC. To better understand the role of miRNA with respect to their target genes further experiments are required, and our study provides a platform to better understand the miRNA-OC relationship at genomics level.

Keywords: biomarkers, gene expression, miRNA, oral carcinoma

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866 Body Armours in Amazonian Fish

Authors: Fernando G. Torres, Donna M. Ebenstein, Monica Merino

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Most fish are covered by a protective external armour. The characteristics of these armours depend on the individual elements that form them, such as scales, scutes or dermal plates. In this work, we assess the properties of two different types of protective elements: scales from A. gigas and dermal plates from P. pardalis. A. Gigas and P. Pardalis are two Amazonian fish with a rather prehistoric aspect. They have large scales and dermal plates that form two different types of protective body armours. Although both scales and dermal plates are formed by collagen and hydroxyapatite, their structures display remarkable differences. The structure and composition of the samples were assessed by means of X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). Morphology studies were carried out using a Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Nanoindentation tests were performed to measure the reduced moduli in A. gigas scales and P. pardalis plates. The similarities and differences between scales and dermal plates are discussed based on the experimental results. Both protective armours are designed to be lightweight, flexible and tough. A. Gigas scales are are light laminated composites, while P. pardalis dermal plates show a sandwich like structure with dense outer layers and a porous inner matrix. It seems that the armour of P. pardalis is more suited for a bottom-dwelling fish and allows for protection against predators. The scales from A. Gigas are more adapted to give protection to a swimming fish. The information obtained from these studies is also important for the development of bioinspired nanocomposites, with potential applications in the biomedical field.

Keywords: pterygoplichthys pardalis, dermal plates arapaima gigas, fish scales

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865 A Mathematical Agent-Based Model to Examine Two Patterns of Language Change

Authors: Gareth Baxter

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We use a mathematical model of language change to examine two recently observed patterns of language change: one in which most speakers change gradually, following the mean of the community change, and one in which most individuals use predominantly one variant or another, and change rapidly if they change at all. The model is based on Croft’s Utterance Selection account of language change, which views language change as an evolutionary process, in which different variants (different ‘ways of saying the same thing’) compete for usage in a population of speakers. Language change occurs when a new variant replaces an older one as the convention within a given population. The present model extends a previous simpler model to include effects related to speaker aging and interspeaker variation in behaviour. The two patterns of individual change (one more centralized and the other more polarized) were recently observed in historical language changes, and it was further observed that slower changes were more associated with the centralized pattern, while quicker changes were more polarized. Our model suggests that the two patterns of change can be explained by different balances between the preference of speakers to use one variant over another and the degree of accommodation to (propensity to adapt towards) other speakers. The correlation with the rate of change appears naturally in our model, and results from the fact that both differential weighting of variants and the degree of accommodation affect the time for change to occur, while also determining the patterns of change. This work represents part of an ongoing effort to examine phenomena in language change through the use of mathematical models. This offers another way to evaluate qualitative explanations that cannot be practically tested (or cannot be tested at all) in a real-world, large-scale speech community.

Keywords: agent based modeling, cultural evolution, language change, social behavior modeling, social influence

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864 In Silico Analysis of Deleterious nsSNPs (Missense) of Dihydrolipoamide Branched-Chain Transacylase E2 Gene Associated with Maple Syrup Urine Disease Type II

Authors: Zainab S. Ahmed, Mohammed S. Ali, Nadia A. Elshiekh, Sami Adam Ibrahim, Ghada M. El-Tayeb, Ahmed H. Elsadig, Rihab A. Omer, Sofia B. Mohamed

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Maple syrup urine (MSUD) is an autosomal recessive disease that causes a deficiency in the enzyme branched-chain alpha-keto acid (BCKA) dehydrogenase. The development of disease has been associated with SNPs in the DBT gene. Despite that, the computational analysis of SNPs in coding and noncoding and their functional impacts on protein level still remains unknown. Hence, in this study, we carried out a comprehensive in silico analysis of missense that was predicted to have a harmful influence on DBT structure and function. In this study, eight different in silico prediction algorithms; SIFT, PROVEAN, MutPred, SNP&GO, PhD-SNP, PANTHER, I-Mutant 2.0 and MUpo were used for screening nsSNPs in DBT including. Additionally, to understand the effect of mutations in the strength of the interactions that bind protein together the ELASPIC servers were used. Finally, the 3D structure of DBT was formed using Mutation3D and Chimera servers respectively. Our result showed that a total of 15 nsSNPs confirmed by 4 software (R301C, R376H, W84R, S268F, W84C, F276C, H452R, R178H, I355T, V191G, M444T, T174A, I200T, R113H, and R178C) were found damaging and can lead to a shift in DBT gene structure. Moreover, we found 7 nsSNPs located on the 2-oxoacid_dh catalytic domain, 5 nsSNPs on the E_3 binding domain and 3 nsSNPs on the Biotin Domain. So these nsSNPs may alter the putative structure of DBT’s domain. Furthermore, we detected all these nsSNPs are on the core residues of the protein and have the ability to change the stability of the protein. Additionally, we found W84R, S268F, and M444T have high significance, and they affected Leucine, Isoleucine, and Valine, which reduces or disrupt the function of BCKD complex, E2-subunit which the DBT gene encodes. In conclusion, based on our extensive in-silico analysis, we report 15 nsSNPs that have possible association with protein deteriorating and disease-causing abilities. These candidate SNPs can aid in future studies on Maple Syrup Urine Disease type II base in the genetic level.

Keywords: DBT gene, ELASPIC, in silico analysis, UCSF chimer

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863 Polyvinylidene Fluoride-Polyaniline Films for Improved Dielectric Properties

Authors: Anjana Jain, S. Jayanth Kumar

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Polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) is a well-known material for remarkable mechanical properties, resistance to chemicals and superior ferroelectric performances. This endows PVDF the potential for application in supercapacitor devices. The dielectric properties of PVDF, however, are not very high. To improve the dielectric properties of Polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF), Piezoelectric polymer nanocomposites are prepared without affecting the other useful properties of PVDF. Polyaniline (PANI) was chosen as a filler material to prepare the nanocomposites. PVDF-PANI nanocomposite films were prepared using solvent cast method with different volume fractions of PANI varying from 0.04% to 0.048% of PANI content. The films are characterized for structural, mechanical, and surface morphological properties using X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimeter, Raman spectra, Infrared spectra, tensile testing, and scanning electron microscopy. The X-ray diffraction analysis shows that, prepared films were in β-phase. The DSC scans indicated that the degree of crystallinity in PVDF-PANI is improved. Raman and Infrared spectrum further confirm the presence of β-phase of PVDF-PANI film. Tensile properties of PVDF-PANI films were in good agreement with those reported in literature. The surface feature shows that PANI is uniformly distributed in PVDF and also results in disappearance of spherulites. The influence of volume fraction of PANI in PVDF on dielectric properties was analyzed. The results showed that the dielectric permittivity of PVDF-PANI (120) was much higher than that of PVDF (12). The sensitivity of these films was studied on application of a pressure and a constant output voltage was obtained.

Keywords: dielectric Properties, PANI, PVDF, smart materials

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862 Application of Watershed Modeling System for Urbanization Management in Tabuk Area, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Abd-Alrahman Embaby, Ayman Abu Halawa, Medhat Ramadan

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The infiltrated water into the subsurface activates expansive soil in localized manner, leading to the differential heaving and destructive of the construction. The Watershed Modeling System (WMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-1) are used to delineate and identify the drainage system and basin morphometry in Tabuk area, where flash floods and accumulation of water may take place. Eight drainage basins effect on Tabuk city. Three of them are expected to be high. The flash floods and surface runoff behavior in these basins are important for any protection projects. It was found that the risky areas that contain Tabuk shale could be expanded when exposed to flash floods and/or surface runoff. The resident neighborhoods in the middle of Tabuk city and affected by surface runoff of the tributaries of the basin of Wadi Abu Nishayfah, Na'am and Atanah outlet, represent high-risk zones. These high-risk neighborhoods are Al Qadsiyah, Al Maseif, Arrwdah, Al Nakhil and Al Rajhi. It can be avoided new constructions on these districts. The low or very low-risk zones include the western and the eastern districts. The western side of the city is lying in the upstream of the small basin. It is suitable for a future urban extension. The direction of surface runoff flow or storm water drain discharge should be away from Tabuk city. The quicker the water can flow out, the better it is.

Keywords: digital elevation model (DEM), flash floods, Saudi Arabia, Tabuk City, watershed modeling system (WMS)

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861 Health Seeking Manners of Road Traffic Accident Victims: A Qualitative Study

Authors: Mohammad Mahbub Alam Talukder, Shahnewaz, Hasanat-E-Rabbi, Mohammed Nazrul Islam

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Road traffic accident is a global problem which is severe in the developing countries like Bangladesh. In consequence, in developing countries road trauma has now been recognized as an increasing public health hazards and economic burning issue. And after road traffic accidents the lack of management and economic costs related with health seeking behavior have a disproportionate impact on lower income groups, thus contributing to the persistence of poverty in conjunction with disability. This cross sectional study, carried out during July 2012 to June 2013, aimed to explore health seeking decision and culture of handling the road traffic accident related victims, as taken from experiences of the poor disabled people of slum dwellers of Dhaka city. The present study has been designed based on qualitative techniques such as in-depth interview and case studies. Additionally, a survey questionnaire was used to collect the demographic characteristics of the study population (n=150) and to select participants purposely for in-depth interview (n=50) and case study (n=30). Content analysis of qualitative data was done through theme coding and matrix analysis of case study was done to use relevant verbatim. Most of the time the health seeking decision totally depended on the surrounded people of the accidental place, their knowledge, awareness and remaining facility and capacity regarding proper management of the victims. However, most of the cases the victims did not get any early treatment and it took 2-12 hours to get even the first aid because of distance, shortage of money, lack of availability of getting the aid, lack of mass awareness etc. Under the reality of discriminated and unaffordable health service provision better treatment could not turn out due to economic inability of the poor victims. To avoid the severe trauma, treatment delay must be reduced by providing first aid within very short time and to do so, mass awareness campaign is necessary for handing the victims. Moreover, necessary measures should be taken to ensure cost free health service provision to treat the chronic disabled condition of the road traffic accident related poor victims.

Keywords: accident, injury, disabled, qualitative, slum

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860 Synthesis and Characterisation of Starch-PVP as Encapsulation Material for Drug Delivery System

Authors: Nungki Rositaningsih, Emil Budianto

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Starch has been widely used as an encapsulation material for drug delivery system. However, starch hydrogel is very easily degraded during metabolism in human stomach. Modification of this material is needed to improve the encapsulation process in drug delivery system, especially for gastrointestinal drug. In this research, three modified starch-based hydrogels are synthesized i.e. Crosslinked starch hydrogel, Semi- and Full- Interpenetrating Polymer Network (IPN) starch hydrogel using Poly(N-Vinyl-Pyrrolidone). Non-modified starch hydrogel was also synthesized as a control. All of those samples were compared as biomaterials, floating drug delivery, and their ability in loading drug test. Biomaterial characterizations were swelling test, stereomicroscopy observation, Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR). Buoyancy test and stereomicroscopy scanning were done for floating drug delivery characterizations. Lastly, amoxicillin was used as test drug, and characterized with UV-Vis spectroscopy for loading drug observation. Preliminary observation showed that Full-IPN has the most dense and elastic texture, followed by Semi-IPN, Crosslinked, and Non-modified in the last position. Semi-IPN and Crosslinked starch hydrogel have the most ideal properties and will not be degraded easily during metabolism. Therefore, both hydrogels could be considered as promising candidates for encapsulation material. Further analysis and issues will be discussed in the paper.

Keywords: biomaterial, drug delivery system, interpenetrating polymer network, poly(N-vinyl-pyrrolidone), starch hydrogel

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859 Development of GIS-Based Geotechnical Guidance Maps for Prediction of Soil Bearing Capacity

Authors: Q. Toufeeq, R. Kauser, U. R. Jamil, N. Sohaib

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Foundation design of a structure needs soil investigation to avoid failures due to settlements. This soil investigation is expensive and time-consuming. Developments of new residential societies involve huge leveling of large sites that is accompanied by heavy land filling. Poor practices of land fill for deep depths cause differential settlements and consolidations of underneath soil that sometimes result in the collapse of structures. The extent of filling remains unknown to the individual developer unless soil investigation is carried out. Soil investigation cannot be performed on each available site due to involved costs. However, fair estimate of bearing capacity can be made if such tests are already done in the surrounding areas. The geotechnical guidance maps can provide a fair assessment of soil properties. Previously, GIS-based approaches have been used to develop maps using extrapolation and interpolations techniques for bearing capacities, underground recharge, soil classification, geological hazards, landslide hazards, socio-economic, and soil liquefaction mapping. Standard penetration test (SPT) data of surrounding sites were already available. Google Earth is used for digitization of collected data. Few points were considered for data calibration and validation. Resultant Geographic information system (GIS)-based guidance maps are helpful to anticipate the bearing capacity in the real estate industry.

Keywords: bearing capacity, soil classification, geographical information system, inverse distance weighted, radial basis function

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858 A Sensitive Approach on Trace Analysis of Methylparaben in Wastewater and Cosmetic Products Using Molecularly Imprinted Polymer

Authors: Soukaina Motia, Nadia El Alami El Hassani, Alassane Diouf, Benachir Bouchikhi, Nezha El Bari

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Parabens are the antimicrobial molecules largely used in cosmetic products as a preservative agent. Among them, the methylparaben (MP) is the most frequently used ingredient in cosmetic preparations. Nevertheless, their potential dangers led to the development of sensible and reliable methods for their determination in environmental samples. Firstly, a sensitive and selective molecular imprinted polymer (MIP) based on screen-printed gold electrode (Au-SPE), assembled on a polymeric layer of carboxylated poly(vinyl-chloride) (PVC-COOH), was developed. After the template removal, the obtained material was able to rebind MP and discriminate it among other interfering species such as glucose, sucrose, and citric acid. The behavior of molecular imprinted sensor was characterized by Cyclic Voltammetry (CV), Differential Pulse Voltammetry (DPV) and Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) techniques. Then, the biosensor was found to have a linear detection range from 0.1 pg.mL-1 to 1 ng.mL-1 and a low limit of detection of 0.12 fg.mL-1 and 5.18 pg.mL-1 by DPV and EIS, respectively. For applications, this biosensor was employed to determine MP content in four wastewaters in Meknes city and two cosmetic products (shower gel and shampoo). The operational reproducibility and stability of this biosensor were also studied. Secondly, another MIP biosensor based on tungsten trioxide (WO3) functionalized by gold nanoparticles (Au-NPs) assembled on a polymeric layer of PVC-COOH was developed. The main goal was to increase the sensitivity of the biosensor. The developed MIP biosensor was successfully applied for the MP determination in wastewater samples and cosmetic products.

Keywords: cosmetic products, methylparaben, molecularly imprinted polymer, wastewater

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857 Trip Reduction in Turbo Machinery

Authors: Pranay Mathur, Carlo Michelassi, Simi Karatha, Gilda Pedoto

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Industrial plant uptime is top most importance for reliable, profitable & sustainable operation. Trip and failed start has major impact on plant reliability and all plant operators focussed on efforts required to minimise the trips & failed starts. The performance of these CTQs are measured with 2 metrics, MTBT(Mean time between trips) and SR (Starting reliability). These metrics helps to identify top failure modes and identify units need more effort to improve plant reliability. Baker Hughes Trip reduction program structured to reduce these unwanted trip 1. Real time machine operational parameters remotely available and capturing the signature of malfunction including related boundary condition. 2. Real time alerting system based on analytics available remotely. 3. Remote access to trip logs and alarms from control system to identify the cause of events. 4. Continuous support to field engineers by remotely connecting with subject matter expert. 5. Live tracking of key CTQs 6. Benchmark against fleet 7. Break down to the cause of failure to component level 8. Investigate top contributor, identify design and operational root cause 9. Implement corrective and preventive action 10. Assessing effectiveness of implemented solution using reliability growth models. 11. Develop analytics for predictive maintenance With this approach , Baker Hughes team is able to support customer in achieving their Reliability Key performance Indicators for monitored units, huge cost savings for plant operators. This Presentation explains these approach while providing successful case studies, in particular where 12nos. of LNG and Pipeline operators with about 140 gas compressing line-ups has adopted these techniques and significantly reduce the number of trips and improved MTBT

Keywords: reliability, availability, sustainability, digital infrastructure, weibull, effectiveness, automation, trips, fail start

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856 A Modified Refined Higher Order Zigzag Theory for Stress Analysis of Hybrid Composite Laminates

Authors: Dhiraj Biswas, Chaitali Ray

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A modified refined higher order zigzag theory has been developed in this paper in order to compute the accurate interlaminar stresses within hybrid laminates. Warping has significant effect on the mechanical behaviour of the laminates. To the best of author(s)’ knowledge the stress analysis of hybrid laminates is not reported in the published literature. The present paper aims to develop a new C0 continuous element based on the refined higher order zigzag theories considering warping effect in the formulation of hybrid laminates. The eight noded isoparametric plate bending element is used for the flexural analysis of laminated composite plates to study the performance of the proposed model. The transverse shear stresses are computed by using the differential equations of stress equilibrium in a simplified manner. A computer code has been developed using MATLAB software package. Several numerical examples are solved to assess the performance of the present finite element model based on the proposed higher order zigzag theory by comparing the present results with three-dimensional elasticity solutions. The present formulation is validated by comparing the results obtained from the relevant literature. An extensive parametric study has been carried out on the hybrid laminates with varying percentage of materials and angle of orientation of fibre content.

Keywords: hybrid laminate, Interlaminar stress, refined higher order zigzag theory, warping effect

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855 Women Learning in Creative Project Based Learning of Engineering Education

Authors: Jui Hsuan Hung, Jeng Yi Tzeng

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Engineering education in the higher education is always male dominated. Therefore, women learning in this environment is an important research topic for feminists, gender researchers and engineering education researchers, especially in the era of gender mainstreaming. The research topics are from the dialectical discussion of feminism and science development history, gender issues of science education, to the subject choice of female students. These researches enrich the field of gender study in engineering education but lack of describing the detailed images of women in engineering education, including their learning, obstacles, needs or feelings. Otherwise, in order to keep up with the industrial trends of emphasizing group collaboration, engineering education turns from traditional lecture to creative group inquiry pedagogy in recent years. Creative project based learning is one of the creative group inquiry pedagogy which the engineering education in higher education adopts often, and it is seen as a gender-inclusive pedagogy in engineering education. Therefore, in order to understand the real situation of women learning in engineering education, this study took place in a course (Introduction to Engineering) offered by the school of engineering of a university in Taiwan. This course is designed for freshman students to establish basic understanding engineering from four departments (Chemical Engineering, Power Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management). One section of this course is to build a Hydraulic Robot designed by the Department of Power Mechanical Engineering. 321 students in the school of engineering took this course and all had the reflection questionnaire. These students are divided into groups of 5 members to work on this project. The videos of process of discussion of five volunteered groups with different gender composition are analyzed, and six women of these five groups are interviewed. We are still on the process of coding and analyzing videos and the qualitative data, but several tentative findings have already emerged. (1) The activity models of groups of both genders are gender segregation, and not like women; men never be the ‘assistants’. (2) The culture of the group is developed by the major gender, but men always dominate the process of practice in all kinds of gender composition groups. (3) Project based learning is supposed to be a gender-inclusive learning model in creative engineering education, but communication obstacles between men and women make it less women friendly. (4) Gender identity, not professional identity, is adopted by these women while they interact with men in their groups. (5) Gender composition and project-based learning pedagogy are not the key factors for women learning in engineering education, but the gender conscience awareness is.

Keywords: engineering education, gender education, creative project based learning, women learning

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854 A Geo DataBase to Investigate the Maximum Distance Error in Quality of Life Studies

Authors: Paolino Di Felice

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The background and significance of this study come from papers already appeared in the literature which measured the impact of public services (e.g., hospitals, schools, ...) on the citizens’ needs satisfaction (one of the dimensions of QOL studies) by calculating the distance between the place where they live and the location on the territory of the services. Those studies assume that the citizens' dwelling coincides with the centroid of the polygon that expresses the boundary of the administrative district, within the city, they belong to. Such an assumption “introduces a maximum measurement error equal to the greatest distance between the centroid and the border of the administrative district.”. The case study, this abstract reports about, investigates the implications descending from the adoption of such an approach but at geographical scales greater than the urban one, namely at the three levels of nesting of the Italian administrative units: the (20) regions, the (110) provinces, and the 8,094 municipalities. To carry out this study, it needs to be decided: a) how to store the huge amount of (spatial and descriptive) input data and b) how to process them. The latter aspect involves: b.1) the design of algorithms to investigate the geometry of the boundary of the Italian administrative units; b.2) their coding in a programming language; b.3) their execution and, eventually, b.4) archiving the results in a permanent support. The IT solution we implemented is centered around a (PostgreSQL/PostGIS) Geo DataBase structured in terms of three tables that fit well to the hierarchy of nesting of the Italian administrative units: municipality(id, name, provinceId, istatCode, regionId, geometry) province(id, name, regionId, geometry) region(id, name, geometry). The adoption of the DBMS technology allows us to implement the steps "a)" and "b)" easily. In particular, step "b)" is simplified dramatically by calling spatial operators and spatial built-in User Defined Functions within SQL queries against the Geo DB. The major findings coming from our experiments can be summarized as follows. The approximation that, on the average, descends from assimilating the residence of the citizens with the centroid of the administrative unit of reference is of few kilometers (4.9) at the municipalities level, while it becomes conspicuous at the other two levels (28.9 and 36.1, respectively). Therefore, studies such as those mentioned above can be extended up to the municipal level without affecting the correctness of the interpretation of the results, but not further. The IT framework implemented to carry out the experiments can be replicated for studies referring to the territory of other countries all over the world.

Keywords: quality of life, distance measurement error, Italian administrative units, spatial database

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853 Beliefs, Practices and Identity about Bilingualism: Korean-australian Immigrant Parents and Family Language Policies

Authors: Eun Kyong Park

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This study explores the relationships between immigrant parents’ beliefs about bilingualism, family literacy practices, and their children’s identity development in Sydney, Australia. This project examines how these parents’ ideological beliefs and knowledge are related to their provision of family literacy practices and management of the environment for their bilingual children based on family language policy (FLP). This is a follow-up study of the author’s prior thesis that presented Korean immigrant mothers’ beliefs and decision-making in support of their children’s bilingualism. It includes fathers’ perspectives within the participating families as a whole by foregrounding their perceptions of bilingual and identity development. It adopts a qualitative approach with twelve immigrant mothers and fathers living in a Korean-Australian community whose child attends one of the communities Korean language programs. This time, it includes introspective and self-evocative auto-ethnographic data. The initial data set collected from the first part of this study demonstrated the mothers provided rich, diverse, and specific family literacy activities for their children. These mothers selected specific practices to facilitate their child’s bilingual development at home. The second part of data has been collected over a three month period: 1) a focus group interview with mothers; 2) a brief self-report of fathers; 3) the researcher’s reflective diary. To analyze these multiple data, thematic analysis and coding were used to reveal the parents’ ideologies surrounding bilingualism and bilingual identities. It will highlight the complexity of language and literacy practices in the family domain interrelated with sociocultural factors. This project makes an original contribution to the field of bilingualism and FLP and a methodological contribution by introducing auto-ethnographic input of this community’s lived practices. This project will empower Korean-Australian immigrant families and other multilingual communities to reflect their beliefs and practices for their emerging bilingual children. It will also enable educators and policymakers to access authentic information about how bilingualism is practiced within these immigrant families in multiple ways and to help build the culturally appropriate partnership between home and school community.

Keywords: bilingualism, beliefs, identity, family language policy, Korean immigrant parents in Australia

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852 Psychosocial Strategies Used by Individuals with Schizophrenia: An Analysis of Internet Forum Posts

Authors: Charisse H. Tay

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Background: Schizophrenia is a severe chronic mental disorder that can result in hallucinations, delusions, reduced social engagement, and lack of motivation. While antipsychotic medications often provide the basis for treatment, psychosocial strategies complement the benefit of medications and can result in meaningful improvements in symptoms and functioning. The aim of the study was to investigate psychosocial strategies used by internet self-help forum participants to effectively manage symptoms caused by schizophrenia. Internet self-help forums are a resource for medical and psychological problems and are commonly used to share information about experiences with symptom management. Method: Three international self-help internet forums on schizophrenia were identified using a search engine. 1,181 threads regarding non-pharmacological, psychosocial self-management of schizophrenia symptoms underwent screening, resulting in the final identification and coding of 91 threads and 191 posts from 134 unique forum users that contained details on psychosocial strategies endorsed personally by users that allowed them to effectively manage symptoms of schizophrenia, including positive symptoms (e.g., auditory/visual/tactile hallucinations, delusions, paranoia), negative symptoms (e.g.., avolition, apathy, anhedonia), symptoms of distress, and cognitive symptoms (e.g., memory loss). Results: Effective symptom management strategies personally endorsed by online forum users were psychological skills (e.g., re-focusing, mindfulness/meditation, reality checking; n = 94), engaging in activities (e.g., exercise, working/volunteering, hobbies; n = 84), social/familial support (n = 48), psychotherapy (n = 33), diet (n = 18), and religion/spirituality (n = 14). 44.4% of users reported using more than one strategy to manage their symptoms. The most common symptoms targeted and effectively managed, as specified by users, were positive symptoms (n = 113), negative symptoms (n = 17), distress (n = 8), and memory loss (n = 6). 10.5% of users reported more than one symptom effectively targeted. 70.2% of users with positive symptoms reported that psychological skills were effective for symptom relief. 88% of users with negative symptoms and 75% with distress symptoms reported that engaging in activities was effective. Discussion: Individuals with schizophrenia rely on a variety of different psychosocial methods to manage their symptoms. Different symptomology appears to be more effectively targeted by different types of psychosocial strategies. This may help to inform treatment strategy and tailored for individuals with schizophrenia.

Keywords: psychosocial treatment, qualitative methods, schizophrenia, symptom management

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851 Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Students’ Academic Performance and Study Strategies Based on Their Motivation

Authors: Fidelia A. Orji, Julita Vassileva

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This research aims to develop machine learning models for students' academic performance and study strategy prediction, which could be generalized to all courses in higher education. Key learning attributes (intrinsic, extrinsic, autonomy, relatedness, competence, and self-esteem) used in building the models are chosen based on prior studies, which revealed that the attributes are essential in students’ learning process. Previous studies revealed the individual effects of each of these attributes on students’ learning progress. However, few studies have investigated the combined effect of the attributes in predicting student study strategy and academic performance to reduce the dropout rate. To bridge this gap, we used Scikit-learn in python to build five machine learning models (Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, Linear/Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine) for both regression and classification tasks to perform our analysis. The models were trained, evaluated, and tested for accuracy using 924 university dentistry students' data collected by Chilean authors through quantitative research design. A comparative analysis of the models revealed that the tree-based models such as the random forest (with prediction accuracy of 94.9%) and decision tree show the best results compared to the linear, support vector, and k-nearest neighbours. The models built in this research can be used in predicting student performance and study strategy so that appropriate interventions could be implemented to improve student learning progress. Thus, incorporating strategies that could improve diverse student learning attributes in the design of online educational systems may increase the likelihood of students continuing with their learning tasks as required. Moreover, the results show that the attributes could be modelled together and used to adapt/personalize the learning process.

Keywords: classification models, learning strategy, predictive modeling, regression models, student academic performance, student motivation, supervised machine learning

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850 Microstructure Study of Melt Spun Mg₆₅Cu₂₅Y₁₀

Authors: Michael Regev, Shai Essel, Alexander Katz-Demyanetz

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Magnesium alloys are characterized by good physical properties: They exhibit high strength, are lightweight and have good damping absorption and good thermal and electrical conductivity. Amorphous magnesium alloys, moreover, exhibit higher strength, hardness and a large elastic domain in addition to having excellent corrosion resistance. These above-mentioned advantages make magnesium based metallic glasses attractive for industrial use. Among the various existing magnesium alloys, Mg₆₅Cu₂₅Y₁₀ alloy is known to be one of the best glass formers. In the current study, Mg₆₅Cu₂₅Y₁₀ ribbons were produced by melt spinning, their microstructure was investigated in its as-cast condition, after pressing under 0.5 GPa for 5 minutes under different temperatures - RT, 500C, 1000C, 1500C and 2000C - and after five minute exposure to the above temperatures without pressing. The microstructure was characterized by means of X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), High Resolution Scanning Electron Microscope (HRSEM) and High Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy (HRTEM). XRD and DSC studies showed that the as-cast material had an amorphous character and that the material crystallized during exposure to temperature with or without applying stress. HRTEM revealed that the as-cast Mg65Cu25Y10, although known to be one of the best glass formers, is nano-crystalline rather than amorphous. The current study casts light on the question what an amorphous alloy is and whether there is any clear borderline between amorphous and nano-crystalline alloys.

Keywords: metallic glass, magnesium, melt spinning, amorphous alloys

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849 Application of Human Biomonitoring and Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modelling to Quantify Exposure to Selected Toxic Elements in Soil

Authors: Eric Dede, Marcus Tindall, John W. Cherrie, Steve Hankin, Christopher Collins

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Current exposure models used in contaminated land risk assessment are highly conservative. Use of these models may lead to over-estimation of actual exposures, possibly resulting in negative financial implications due to un-necessary remediation. Thus, we are carrying out a study seeking to improve our understanding of human exposure to selected toxic elements in soil: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) resulting from allotment land-use. The study employs biomonitoring and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling to quantify human exposure to these elements. We recruited 37 allotment users (adults > 18 years old) in Scotland, UK, to participate in the study. Concentrations of the elements (and their bioaccessibility) were measured in allotment samples (soil and allotment produce). Amount of produce consumed by the participants and participants’ biological samples (urine and blood) were collected for up to 12 consecutive months. Ethical approval was granted by the University of Reading Research Ethics Committee. PBPK models (coded in MATLAB) were used to estimate the distribution and accumulation of the elements in key body compartments, thus indicating the internal body burden. Simulating low element intake (based on estimated ‘doses’ from produce consumption records), predictive models suggested that detection of these elements in urine and blood was possible within a given period of time following exposure. This information was used in planning biomonitoring, and is currently being used in the interpretation of test results from biological samples. Evaluation of the models is being carried out using biomonitoring data, by comparing model predicted concentrations and measured biomarker concentrations. The PBPK models will be used to generate bioavailability values, which could be incorporated in contaminated land exposure models. Thus, the findings from this study will promote a more sustainable approach to contaminated land management.

Keywords: biomonitoring, exposure, PBPK modelling, toxic elements

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848 World War II Vaccination Scheme as a Determinant of Gender-Specific Differences in Anti-Tetanus Antibody Levels in the British Elderly Population

Authors: Myrto Vlazaki

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Tetanus is a non-transmissible, preventable bacterial disease with high mortality. In the U.K., the demographic group systematically accounting for a large proportion of the infections notified to the authorities over the years have been the elderly (> 60 years old). The 2009 seroepidemiological study for tetanus in England reports a gender-age interaction for the +70, with males having significantly higher anti-tetanus antibody levels than females. A systematic review of the literature was carried out to characterise: I. the seroepidemiology of tetanus in economically developed countries with similar immunisation schemes to the U.K., introduced in the 1960’s. II. the factors leading to differential vaccine uptake between males and females in 1910-1945 (corresponding to ages of 60-95 in 2005). III. the immune response elicited by anti-tetanus immunisation in males and females IV. the value of catch-up immunisation in the elderly Similar age- and gender- differences in anti-tetanus antibody levels are noted in other countries. Gender differences in immune responses elicited by vaccination are not consistent with the finding that elder females are less well protected against tetanus compared to their male counterparts. Attention is drawn to the selective anti-tetanus immunisation scheme introduced in the U.K. in 1938, specific to the World War II conscripts. The age-specific immunity gap observed amongst the +70 could be explained as the by-product of that early scheme targetting mostly males. Introducing anti-tetanus vaccination in the +70 in the U.K. could help bridge the immunity gap between males and females and reduce the overall tetanus susceptibility of this age group.

Keywords: elderly, immunisation, gender-specific differences, seroepidemiology, tetanus, World War II

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847 Numerical Approach to a Mathematical Modeling of Bioconvection Due to Gyrotactic Micro-Organisms over a Nonlinear Inclined Stretching Sheet

Authors: Madhu Aneja, Sapna Sharma

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The water-based bioconvection of a nanofluid containing motile gyrotactic micro-organisms over nonlinear inclined stretching sheet has been investigated. The governing nonlinear boundary layer equations of the model are reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations via Oberbeck-Boussinesq approximation and similarity transformations. Further, the modified set of equations with associated boundary conditions are solved using Finite Element Method. The impact of various pertinent parameters on the velocity, temperature, nanoparticles concentration, density of motile micro-organisms profiles are obtained and analyzed in details. The results show that with the increase in angle of inclination δ, velocity decreases while temperature, nanoparticles concentration, a density of motile micro-organisms increases. Additionally, the skin friction coefficient, Nusselt number, Sherwood number, density number are computed for various thermophysical parameters. It is noticed that increasing Brownian motion and thermophoresis parameter leads to an increase in temperature of fluid which results in a reduction in Nusselt number. On the contrary, Sherwood number rises with an increase in Brownian motion and thermophoresis parameter. The findings have been validated by comparing the results of special cases with existing studies.

Keywords: bioconvection, finite element method, gyrotactic micro-organisms, inclined stretching sheet, nanofluid

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846 Cocrystal of Mesalamine for Enhancement of Its Biopharmaceutical Properties, Utilizing Supramolecular Chemistry Approach

Authors: Akshita Jindal, Renu Chadha, Maninder Karan

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Supramolecular chemistry has gained recent eminence in a flurry of research documents demonstrating the formation of new crystalline forms with potentially advantageous characteristics. Mesalamine (5-amino salicylic acid) belongs to anti-inflammatory class of drugs, is used to treat ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease. Unfortunately, mesalamine suffer from poor solubility and therefore very low bioavailability. This work is focused on preparation and characterization of cocrystal of mesalamine with nicotinamide (MNIC) a coformer of GRAS status. Cocrystallisation was achieved by solvent drop grinding in stoichiometric ratio of 1:1 using acetonitrile as solvent and was characterized by various techniques including DSC (Differential Scanning Calorimetry), PXRD (X-ray Powder Diffraction), and FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer). The co-crystal depicted single endothermic transitions (254°C) which were different from the melting peaks of both drug (288°C) and coformer (128°C) indicating the formation of a new solid phase. Different XRPD patterns and FTIR spectrums for the co-crystals from those of individual components confirms the formation of new phase. Enhancement in apparent solubility study and intrinsic dissolution study showed effectiveness of this cocrystal. Further improvement in pharmacokinetic profile has also been observed with 2 folds increase in bioavailability. To conclude, our results show that application of nicotinamide as a coformer is a viable approach towards the preparation of cocrystals of potential drug molecule having limited solubility.

Keywords: cocrystal, mesalamine, nicotinamide, solvent drop grinding

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845 Surprise Fraudsters Before They Surprise You: A South African Telecommunications Case Study

Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

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