Search results for: age-structured forest population

Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Natalia Bustos Sierra, Katrien Tersago

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It is currently proven that both extremes of temperature are associated with increased mortality and that air pollution is associated with temperature. This relationship is complex, and in countries with important seasonal variations in weather such as Belgium, some effects can appear as non-significant when the analysis is done over the entire year. We, therefore, analyzed the effect of short-term outdoor air pollution exposure on cardiovascular mortality during the warmer and colder months separately. We used daily cardiovascular deaths from acute cardiovascular diagnostics according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10: I20-I24, I44-I49, I50, I60-I66) during the period 2008-2013. The environmental data were population-weighted concentrations of particulates with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 µm (PM₂.₅) (daily average), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (daily maximum of the hourly average) and ozone (O₃) (daily maximum of the 8-hour running mean). A Generalized linear model was applied adjusting for the confounding effect of season, temperature, dew point temperature, the day of the week, public holidays and the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risks (RR) were calculated for an increase of one interquartile range (IQR) of the air pollutant (μg/m³). These were presented for the four hottest months (June, July, August, September) and coldest months (November, December, January, February) in Belgium. We applied both individual lag model and unconstrained distributed lag model methods. The cumulative effect of a four-day exposure (day of exposure and three consecutive days) was calculated from the unconstrained distributed lag model. The IQR for PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, NO₂, and O₃ were respectively 8.2, 6.9, 12.9 and 25.5 µg/m³ during warm months and 18.8, 17.6, 18.4 and 27.8 µg/m³ during cold months. The association with CV mortality was statistically significant for the four pollutants during warm months and only for NO₂ during cold months. During the warm months, the cumulative effect of an IQR increase of ozone for the age groups 25-64, 65-84 and 85+ was 1.066 (95%CI: 1.002-1.135), 1.041 (1.008-1.075) and 1.036 (1.013-1.058) respectively. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of NO₂ for the age group 65-84 was 1.066 (1.020-1.114) during warm months and 1.096 (1.030-1.166) during cold months. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of PM₁₀ during warm months reached 1.046 (1.011-1.082) and 1.038 (1.015-1.063) for the age groups 65-84 and 85+ respectively. Similar results were observed for PM₂.₅. The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality is greater during warm months for lower pollutant concentrations compared to cold months. Spending more time outside during warm months increases population exposure to air pollution and can, therefore, be a confounding factor for this association. Age can also affect the length of time spent outdoors and the type of physical activity exercised. This study supports the deleterious effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CV) which varies according to season and age groups in Belgium. Public health measures should, therefore, be adapted to seasonality.

Keywords: air pollution, cardiovascular, mortality, season

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Authors: Erika Csanyi, Gyula Sandor

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In the course of the examination, we sought to answer the question of how and to what extent the home range and daily activity of a deer stag relocated from its habitual surroundings changes. We conducted the examination in two hunting areas in Hungary, about 50 km from one another. The control area was in the north of Somogy County, while the sample area was an area of similar features in terms of forest cover, tree stock, agricultural structure, altitude above sea level, climate, etc. in the south of Somogy County. Three middle-aged red deer stags were captured with rocket nets, immobilized and marked with GPS-Plus Collars manufactured by Vectronic Aerospace Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung. One captured species was relocated. We monitored deer movements over 24-hour periods at 3 months. In the course of the examination, we analysed the behaviour of the relocated species and those that remained in their original habitat, as well as the temporal evolution of their behaviour. We examined the characteristics of the marked species’ daily activities and the hourly distance they covered. We intended to find out the difference between the behaviour of the species remaining in their original habitat and of those relocated to a more distant, but similar habitat. In summary, based on our findings, it can be established that such enforced relocations to a different habitat (e.g., game relocation) significantly increases the home range of the species in the months following relocation. Home ranges were calculated using the full data set and the minimum convex polygon (MCP) method. Relocation did not increase the nocturnal and diurnal movement activity of the animal in question. Our research found that the home range of the relocated species proved to be significantly higher than that of those species that were not relocated. The results have been presented in tabular form and have also been displayed on a map. Based on the results, it can be established that relocation inherently includes the risk of falling victim to poaching, vehicle collision. It was only in the third month following relocation that the home range of the relocated species subsided to the level of those species that were not relocated. It is advisable to take these observations into consideration in relocating red deer for nature conservation or game management purposes.

Keywords: Cervus elaphus, home range, relocation, red deer stag

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Authors: Dennis Otieno, Lilian Kirimi Nicholas Odhiambo, Hillary Bii

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Kenya is considered to be a middle level income country and usuaaly does not meet household food security needs especially in North and South eastern parts. Approximately half of the population is living under the poverty line (www, CIA 1, 2012). Agriculture is the largest sector in the country, employing 80% of the population. These are thereby directly dependent on the sufficiency of outputs received. This makes efficient, easy-accessible and cheap agricultural practices an important matter in order to improve food security. Maize is the prime staple food commodity in Kenya and represents a substantial share of people’s nutritional intake. This study is the result of questionnaire based interviews, Key informant and focus group discussion involving 220 small scale maize farmers Kenyan. The study was located to two separated areas; Lower Kuja, Bunyala, Nandi, Lower Nzoia, Perkerra, Mwea Bura, Hola and Galana Kulalu in Kenya. The questionnaire captured the farmers’ use and perceived importance of the use irrigation services and irrigated maize production. Viability was evaluated using the four indices which were all positive with NPV giving positive cash flows in less than 21 years at most for one season output. The mean willingness to pay was found to be KES 3082 and willingness to pay increased with increase in irrigation premiums. The economic value of water was found to be greater than the willingness to pay implying that irrigated maize production is sustainable. Farmers stated that viability was influenced by high output levels, good produce quality, crop of choice, availability of sufficient water and enforcement the last two factors had a positive influence while the other had negative effect on the viability of irrigated maize. A regression was made over the correlation between the willingness to pay for irrigated maize production using scheme and plot level factors. Farmers that already use other inputs such as animal manure, hired labor and chemical fertilizer should also have a demand for improved seeds according to Liebig's law of minimum and expansion path theory. The regression showed that premiums, and high yields have a positive effect on willingness to pay while produce quality, efficient fertilizer use, and crop season have a negative effect.

Keywords: maize, food security, profits, sustainability, willingness to pay

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Authors: B. Tirpude, V. Surwade, P. Murkey, P. Wankhade, S. Meena

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There is no statistical data to establish variation in epiphyseal fusion in girls in central India population. This significant oversight can lead to exclusion of persons of interest in a forensic investigation. Epiphyseal fusion of proximal end of humerus in eighty females were analyzed on radiological basis to assess the range of variation of epiphyseal fusion at each age. In the study, the X ray films of the subjects were divided into three groups on the basis of degree of fusion. Firstly, those which were showing No Epiphyseal Fusion (N), secondly those showing Partial Union (PC), and thirdly those showing Complete Fusion (C). Observations made were compared with the previous studies.

Keywords: epiphyseal union, shoulder joint, proximal end of humerus

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Authors: Monty Vacura

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Hamilton’s Rule is a universal law of biology expressed in protists, plants and animals. When applied to human populations, this model explains: 1) Origin of religion in society as a biopsychological need selected to increase population size; 2) Instincts of racism expressed through intergroup competition; 3) Simultaneous selection for human cooperation and conflict, love and hate; 4) Connection between sporting events and instinctive social messaging for stimulating offensive and defensive responses; 5) Pathway to reduce human sacrifice. This chapter discusses the deep psychological influences of Hamilton’s Rule. Suggestions are provided to reduce human deaths via our instinctive sacrificial behavior, by consciously monitoring Hamilton’s Rule variables highlighted throughout our media outlets.

Keywords: psychology, Hamilton’s rule, evolution, human instincts

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Authors: Tanima Chatterjee, Maitree Bhattacharyya

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The global challenge of type 2 diabetes mellitus is a major health concern in this millennium, and researchers are continuously exploring new targets to develop a novel therapeutic strategy. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is often coupled with dyslipidemia increasing the risks for cardiovascular (CVD) complications. Enhanced oxidative and nitrosative stresses appear to be the major risk factors underlying insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, β-cell dysfunction, and T2DM pathogenesis. Autophagy emerges to be a promising defense mechanism against stress-mediated cell damage regulating tissue homeostasis, cellular quality control, and energy production, promoting cell survival. In this study, we have attempted to explore the pivotal role of autophagy in T2DM subjects with or without dyslipidemia in peripheral blood mononuclear cells and insulin-resistant HepG2 cells utilizing flow cytometric platform, confocal microscopy, and molecular biology techniques like western blotting, immunofluorescence, and real-time polymerase chain reaction. In the case of T2DM with dyslipidemia higher population of autophagy, positive cells were detected compared to patients with the only T2DM, which might have resulted due to higher stress. Autophagy was observed to be triggered both by oxidative and nitrosative stress revealing a novel finding of our research. LC3 puncta was observed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells and periphery of HepG2 cells in the case of the diabetic and diabetic-dyslipidemic conditions. Increased expression of ATG5, LC3B, and Beclin supports the autophagic pathway in both PBMC and insulin-resistant Hep G2 cells. Upon blocking autophagy by 3-methyl adenine (3MA), the apoptotic cell population increased significantly, as observed by caspase‐3 cleavage and reduced expression of Bcl2. Autophagy has also been evidenced to control oxidative stress-mediated up-regulation of inflammatory markers like IL-6 and TNF-α. To conclude, this study elucidates autophagy to play a protective role in the case of diabetes mellitus with dyslipidemia. In the present scenario, this study demands to have a significant impact on developing a new therapeutic strategy for diabetic dyslipidemic subjects by enhancing autophagic activity.

Keywords: autophagy, apoptosis, dyslipidemia, reactive oxygen species, reactive nitrogen species, Type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Ronit German, Alexandra Beytenbrat

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Although English seems to be prevalent in every sphere of Israeli daily life, not many Israeli students have a sufficient level of writing and speaking in English which is necessary for academic studies. The inadequate level of English among Israeli students is because the sole focus is on teaching reading comprehension, and the need to adapt to the trends of the professional worldwide demands triggered a reform that requires implementing Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR) and English as a Medium of Instruction (EMI) courses in the Israeli academic institutions. However, it will be argued that this reform is challenging to implement. The fact that modern Hebrew is a revived language, and that English is L3 for more than 30% of the population, the diverse social and cultural students’ background, and psychological factors stand in the way of the new reform.

Keywords: CEFR, cultural diversity, EMI courses, English in Israel, reform

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Authors: D. Touil, L. Ouadah

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An industrial model of cement grinding circuit is proposed on the basis of sampling surveys undertaken in the Meftah cement plant in Algiers, Algeria. The ball mill is described by a series of equal fully mixed stages that incorporates the effect of air sweeping. The kinetic parameters of this material in the energy normalized form obtained using the data of batch dry ball milling are taken into account in developing the present scale-up procedure. The dynamic separator is represented by the air classifier selectivity equation corrected by empirical factors. The model is incorporated in computer program that predict full size distributions and mass flow rates for all streams in a circuit under a particular set of operating conditions.

Keywords: grinding circuit, clinker, cement, modeling, population balance, energy

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Authors: Ronit German, Alexandra Beytenbrat

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Although English seems to be prevalent in every sphere of Israeli daily life, not many Israeli students have a sufficient level of writing and speaking in English which is necessary for academic studies. The inadequate level of English among Israeli students, almost the sole focus on teaching reading comprehension, and the need to adapt to the trends of the professional worldwide demands triggered a reform that requires to implement Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR) and English as a Medium of Instruction (EMI) courses in the Israeli academic institutions. However, it will be argued that this reform is challenging to implement. The fact that modern Hebrew is a revived language, and that English is L3 for more than 30% of the population, the diverse social and cultural students’ background, and psychological factors stand in the way of the new reform.

Keywords: CEFR, cultural diversity, EMI courses, English in Israel, reform

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Authors: Seolah Lee, Yoohyk Jang, Soyoung Lee, Kon Chu, Sang Kun Lee

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Objective: The International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) currently suggests a topiramate serum level range of 5-20 mg/L. However, numerous institutions have observed substantial drug response at lower levels. This study aims to investigate the correlation between topiramate serum levels, drug responsiveness, and adverse events to establish a more accurate and tailored therapeutic range. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed topiramate serum samples collected between January 2017 and January 2022 at Seoul National University Hospital. Clinical data, including serum levels, antiseizure regimens, seizure frequency, and adverse events, were collected. Patient responses were categorized as "insufficient" (reduction in seizure frequency <50%) or "sufficient" (reduction ≥ 50%). Within the "sufficient" group, further subdivisions included seizure-free and tolerable seizure subgroups. A population pharmacokinetic model estimated serum levels from spot measurements. ROC curve analysis determined the optimal serum level cut-off. Results: A total of 389 epilepsy patients, with 555 samples, were reviewed, having a mean dose of 178.4±117.9 mg/day and a serum level of 3.9±2.8 mg/L. Out of the samples, only 5.6% (n=31) exhibited insufficient response, with a mean serum level of 3.6±2.5 mg/L. In contrast, 94.4% (n=524) of samples demonstrated sufficient response, with a mean serum level of 4.0±2.8 mg/L. This difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.45). Among the 78 reported adverse events, logistic regression analysis identified a significant association between ataxia and serum concentration (p = 0.04), with an optimal cut-off value of 6.5 mg/L. In the subgroup of patients receiving monotherapy, those in the tolerable seizure group exhibited a significantly higher serum level compared to the seizure-free group (4.8±2.0 mg/L vs 3.4±2.3 mg/L, p < 0.01). Notably, patients in the tolerable seizure group displayed a higher likelihood of progressing into drug-resistant epilepsy during follow-up visits compared to the seizure-free group. Significance: This study proposed an optimal therapeutic concentration for topiramate based on the patient's responsiveness to the drug and the incidence of adverse effects. We employed a population pharmacokinetic model and analyzed topiramate serum levels to recommend a serum level below 6.5 mg/L to mitigate the risk of ataxia-related side effects. Our findings also indicated that topiramate dose elevation is unnecessary for suboptimal responders, as the drug's effectiveness plateaus at minimal doses.

Keywords: topiramate, therapeutic range, low dos, antiseizure effect

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Authors: Aashee Garg, Anusha Agarwal

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India, as a country is very rich in terms of natural resources however as citizens, we have not respected this fact and have been continuously exploiting nature’s gift to mankind. Further as the population is ever increasing, the load on the consumption of resources is unprecedented. This has led to the depletion of natural resources such as coal, oil, gas etc., apart from the pollution it causes. It is time that we shift from use of these conventional resources to more effective new ways of energy generation. We should develop and encourage usage of renewable resources such as wind and solar in households to conserve energy in place of the above mentioned nonrenewable energy sources. This paper deals with the most effective ways in which the households in India can conserve energy thus reducing effect on environment and depletion of limited resources.

Keywords: energy consumption, resources, India, renewable resources and environment

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Authors: Saad Bin Nasir

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The research will examine the role of corporate governance (CG) practices on firm’s financial performance. Population of this research will be manufacture sector of Pakistan. For the purposes of measurement of impact of corporate governance practices such as board size, board independence, ceo/chairman duality, will take as independent variables and for the measurement of firm’s performance return on assets and return on equity will take as dependent variables. Panel data regression model will be used to estimate the impact of CG on firm performance.

Keywords: corporate governance, board size, board independence, leadership

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Authors: Piyanut Suchit

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The purposes of this study was to investigate students’ satisfaction learning with the web based instruction on the puppet show. The population of this study includes 53 students in the Program of Library and Information Sciences who registered in the subject of Puppet for Assisting Learning Development in semester 2/2011, Suansunandha Rajabhat University, Bangkok, Thailand. The research instruments consist of web based instruction on the puppet show, and questionnaires for students’ satisfaction. The research statistics includes arithmetic mean, and standard deviation. The results revealed that the students reported very high satisfaction with mean = 4.63, SD = 0.52, on the web based instruction.

Keywords: puppet show, web based instruction, satisfaction, Suansunandha Rajabhat University

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Authors: Tertia Delia Nova, Masaji Watanabge

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Infection of bird flu within a poultry farm involves hosts, virus, and medium. Intrusion of bird flu into a poultry farm divides the population into two groups; healthy and susceptible chickens and infected chickens. A healthy and susceptible bird is infected to become an infected bird. Bird flu viruses spread among chickens through medium such as air and droppings, and increase in hosts. A model for an infection process of bird flu within a poultry farm is described, numerical techniques are illustrated, and numerical results are introduced.

Keywords: bird flu, poultry farm, model for an infection process, flu viruses

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Natchaphon Auampradit, Patama Vapattanawong, Sureeporn Punpuing, Malee Sunpuwan, Tawanchai Jirapramukpitak

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Longitudinal studies related to cognitive impairment in elderly are necessary for health promotion and development. The purposes of this study were (1) to examine changes in cognition of elderly over time and (2) to examine the impacts of changes in social determinants of health (SDH) toward changes in cognition of elderly by using the secondary data derived from the Kanchanaburi Demographic Surveillance System (KDSS) by the Institute for Population and Social Research (IPSR) which contained longitudinal data on individuals, households, and villages. Two selected projects included the Health and Social Support for Elderly in KDSS in 2007 and the Population, Economic, Social, Cultural, and Long-term Care Surveillance for Thai Elderly People’s Health Promotion in 2011. The samples were 586 elderly participated in both projects. SDH included living arrangement, social relationships with children, relatives, and friends, household asset-based wealth index, household monthly income, loans for livings, loans for investment, and working status. Cognitive impairment was measured by category fluency and delayed recall. This study employed Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) model to investigate changes in cognition by taking SDH and other variables such as age, gender, marital status, education, and depression into the model. The unstructured correlation structure was selected to use for analysis. The results revealed that 24 percent of elderly had cognitive impairment at baseline. About 13 percent of elderly still had cognitive impairment during 2007 until 2011. About 21 percent and 11 percent of elderly had cognitive decline and cognitive improvement, respectively. The cross-sectional analysis showed that household asset-based wealth index, social relationship with friends, working status, age, marital status, education, and depression were significantly associated with cognitive impairment. The GEE model revealed longitudinal effects of household asset-based wealth index and working status against cognition during 2007 until 2011. There was no longitudinal effect of social conditions against cognition. Elderly living with richer household asset-based wealth index, still being employed, and being younger were less likely to have cognitive impairment. The results strongly suggested that poorer household asset-based wealth index and being unemployed were served as a risk factor for cognitive impairment over time. Increasing age was still the major risk for cognitive impairment as well.

Keywords: changes in cognition, cognitive impairment, elderly, KDSS, longitudinal study

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Authors: Jia Guo, Qinyuan Huang, Qinyi Zhong, Yanjing Zeng, Yimeng Li, James Wiley, Kin Cheung, Jyu-Lin Chen

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Context: Mothers with abdominal obesity, particularly in China, face challenges in managing their health due to family responsibilities. Existing diabetes prevention programs do not cater specifically to this demographic. Research Aim: To assess the feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of an mHealth-based diabetes prevention program tailored for Chinese mothers with abdominal obesity in reducing weight-related variables and diabetes risk. Methodology: A randomized controlled trial was conducted in Changsha, China, where the mHealth group received personalized modules and health messages, while the control group received general health education. Data were collected at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months. Findings: The mHealth intervention significantly improved waist circumference, modifiable diabetes risk scores, daily steps, self-efficacy for physical activity, social support for physical activity, and physical health satisfaction compared to the control group. However, no differences were found in BMI and certain other variables. Theoretical Importance: The study demonstrates the feasibility and efficacy of a tailored mHealth intervention for Chinese mothers with abdominal obesity, emphasizing the potential for such programs to improve health outcomes in this population. Data Collection: Data on various variables including weight-related measures, diabetes risk scores, behavioral and psychological factors were collected at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months from participants in the mHealth and control groups. Analysis Procedures: Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data collected from the mHealth and control groups at different time points during the study period. Question Addressed: The study addressed the effectiveness of an mHealth-based diabetes prevention program tailored for Chinese mothers with abdominal obesity in improving various health outcomes compared to traditional general health education approaches. Conclusion: The tailored mHealth intervention proved to be feasible and effective in improving weight-related variables, physical activity, and physical health satisfaction among Chinese mothers with abdominal obesity, highlighting its potential for delivering diabetes prevention programs to this population.

Keywords: type 2 diabetes, mHealth, obesity, prevention, mothers

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Authors: Agburuga Obi, Madumere Akuego Jane

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This paper explores the important role sports can play in the promotion of good health and prevention of diseases. Technological advancements in today’s world has come along with some difficulties to man. This is because work formally done by man has been taken over by machines, thus, man has become sedentary. This has created a lot of health problems to man such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer, obesity, and osteoporosis. To nip this ugly situation in the bud, the following recommendations are made: specific measures should be taken to raise the awareness within the government, key sectors and the population of the diverse benefits or physical activity and sports and the risk and costs of inactivity, provision of equipment, facilities for sports and recreational activities in every community, participation in physical activities in sports if not on daily basis at least thrice a week.

Keywords: physical activities, sport, good health, prevention, diseases

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Authors: Pratima Poudel, Austin Himes, Heidi Renninger, Eric McConnel

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Populus spp. (poplar) are the fastest-growing trees in North America, making them ideal for a range of applications as they can achieve high yields on short rotations and regenerate by coppice. Furthermore, poplar undergoes biochemical conversion to fuels without complexity, making it one of the most promising, purpose-grown, woody perennial energy sources. Employing wood-based biomass for bioenergy offers numerous benefits, including reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to non-renewable traditional fuels, the preservation of robust forest ecosystems, and creating economic prospects for rural communities.In order to gain a better understanding of the potential use of poplar as a biomass feedstock for biofuel in the southeastern US, the conducted a techno-economic assessment (TEA). This assessment is an analytical approach that integrates technical and economic factors of a production system to evaluate its economic viability. the TEA specifically focused on a short rotation coppice system employing a single-pass cut-and-chip harvesting method for poplar. It encompassed all the costs associated with establishing dedicated poplar plantations, including land rent, site preparation, planting, fertilizers, and herbicides. Additionally, we performed a sensitivity analysis to evaluate how different costs can affect the economic performance of the poplar cropping system. This analysis aimed to determine the minimum average delivered selling price for one metric ton of biomass necessary to achieve a desired rate of return over the cropping period. To inform the TEA, data on the establishment, crop care activities, and crop yields were derived from a field study conducted at the Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station's Bearden Dairy Research Center in Oktibbeha County and Pontotoc Ridge-Flatwood Branch Experiment Station in Pontotoc County.

Keywords: biomass, populus species, sensitivity analysis, technoeconomic analysis

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Authors: Mahsa Karimpour, Martin Belusko, Ke Xing, Frank Bruno

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Traditionally the embodied energy of design choices which reduce operational energy were assumed to have a negligible impact on the life cycle energy of buildings. However with new buildings having considerably lower operational energy, the significance of embodied energy increases. A life cycle assessment of a population of house designs was conducted in a mild and mixed climate zone. It was determined not only that embodied energy dominates life cycle energy, but that the impact on embodied of design choices was of equal significance to the impact on operational energy.

Keywords: building life cycle energy, embodied energy, energy design measures, low energy buildings

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Authors: Gadisa Demie, Mesele Negash, Zerihun Asrat, Lojka Bohdan

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Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics have led to significant carbon (C) emissions. Agroforestry (AF) is a suitable land-use option for tackling such declines in ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. However, it is unclear how biomass models, AF practices, and socio-ecological factors determine these roles, which hinders the implementation of climate change mitigation initiatives. This study aimed to estimate the ecosystem C stocks of the studied AF practices in relation to socio-ecological variables in central Ethiopia. Out of 243 AF farms inventoried, 108 were chosen at random from three AF practices to estimate their biomass and soil organic carbon. A total of 432 soil samples were collected from 0–30 and 30–60 cm soil depths; 216 samples were taken for each soil organic carbon fraction (%C) and bulk density computation. The study found that the currently developed allometric equations were the most accurate to estimate biomass C for trees growing in the landscape when compared to previous models. The study found higher overall biomass C in woodlots (165.62 Mg ha-¹) than in homegardens (134.07 Mg ha-¹) and parklands (19.98 Mg ha-¹). Conversely, overall, SOC was higher for homegardens (143.88 Mg ha-¹), but lower for parklands (53.42 Mg ha-¹). The ecosystem C stock was comparable between homegardens (277.95 Mg ha-¹) and woodlots (275.44 Mg ha-¹). The study found that elevation, wealthy levels, AF farm age, and size have a positive and significant (P < 0.05) effect on overall biomass and ecosystem C stocks but non-significant with slope (P > 0.05). Similarly, SOC increased with increasing elevation, AF farm age, and wealthy status but decreased with slope and non-significant with AF farm size. The study also showed that species diversity had a positive (P <0.05) effect on overall biomass C stocks in homegardens. The overall study highlights that AF practices have a great potential to lock up more carbon in biomass and soils; however, these potentials were determined by socioecological variables. Thus, these factors should be considered in management strategies that preserve trees in agricultural landscapes in order to mitigate climate change and support the livelihoods of farmers.

Keywords: agricultural landscape, biomass, climate change, soil organic carbon

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Authors: Asho Ali

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Tuberculosis is a disease of grave concern which infects one-third of the global population. The high incidence of tuberculosis is further compounded by the increasing emergence of drug resistant strains including multi drug resistant (MDR). Global incidence MDR-TB is ~4%. Molecular epidemiological studies, based on the assumption that patients infected with clustered strains are epidemiologically linked, have helped understand the transmission dynamics of disease. It has also helped to investigate the basis of variation in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) strains, differences in transmission, and severity of disease or drug resistance mechanisms from across the globe. This has helped in developing strategies for the treatment and prevention of the disease including MDR.

Keywords: Mycobcaterium tuberculosis, molecular epidemiology, drug resistance, disease

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Authors: Mahmood Naghizadeh, Maryam Memarian, Hourshad Irvash

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Following the rise in the world population and the upward growth of urbanization, the design, planning, and management of the site scenery for the purpose of presentation and expansion of sustainable site scenery has turned to be the greatest concern to experts. Since the fundamental principles of the site scenery change more and less haphazardly over time, sustainable site scenery can be viewed as an ideal goal because both sustainability and dynamism come into view in urban site scenery and it wouldn’t be designed according to a set of pre-determined principles. Sustainable site scenery, as the ongoing interaction between idealism and pragmatism with sustainability factors, is a dynamic phenomenon created by bringing cultural, historical, social and natural scenery together. Such an interaction is not to subdue other factors but to reinforce the aforementioned factors. The sustainable site scenery is a persistently occurring event not only has attenuated over time but has gained strength. The sustainability of a site scenery or an event over time depends on its site identity which grows out of its continuous association with the past. The sustainability of a site scene or an event in a time frame intertwined with the identity of the place from past to present. This past history supports the present and future of the scene. The result of such a supportive role is the sustainability of site scenery. Isfahan Naqsh-e-Jahan Square is one of the most outstanding squares in the world and the best embodiment of Iranian site scenery architecture. This square is an arena that brings people together and a dynamic city center comprising various urban and religious complexes, spaces and facilities and is considered as one of the most favorable traditional urban space of Iran. Such a place can illustrate many factors related to sustainable site scenery. One the other hand, there are still no specific principles concerning sustainability in the architecture of site scenery. Meanwhile, sustainability is recognized as a rather modern view in architecture. The purpose of this research is to identify factors involved in sustainability in general and to examine their effects on site scenery architecture in particular. Finally, these factors will be studied with taking Naqsh-e-Jahan Square into account. This research adopts an analytic-descriptive approach that has benefited from the review of literature available in library studies and the documents related to sustainability and site scenery architecture. The statistical population used for the purpose of this research includes square constructed during the Safavid dynasty and Naqsh-e-Jahan Square was picked out as the case study. The purpose of this paper is to come up with a rough definition of sustainable site scenery and demonstrate this concept by analyzing it and recognizing the social, economic and ecological aspects of this project.

Keywords: Naqsh-e-Jahan Square, site scenery architecture, sustainability, sustainable site scenery

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Authors: Abdullahi Mohammed Auwal

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Formation and change or decamping from one political party to another have now become a common trend in Nigeria. Many of the parties’ members who could not secure positions and or win elections in their parties or are not very much satisfied with the trends occurring in the party’s internal democratic principles and mechanisms, change their respective parties. This paper developed/presented and analyzed the used of non linear mathematical model for defections between two political parties using epidemiological approach. The whole population was assumed to be a constant and homogeneously mixed. Equilibria have been analytically obtained and their local and global stability discussed. Conditions for the co-existence of both the political parties have been determined, in the study of defections between People Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressive Congress (APC) in Nigeria using numerical simulations to support the analytical results.

Keywords: model, political parties, deffection, stability, equilibrium, epidemiology

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Authors: Aysha Al Sha'aibi

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Algal blooms of the dinoflagellate species Noctiluca scintillans became frequent events in Omani waters. The current study aims at elucidating the abundance, size variation and observations on the feeding mechanism performed by this species during the winter bloom. An attempt was made, to relate observed biological parameters of the Noctiluca population to environmental factors. Field studies spanned the period from December 2014 to April 2015. Samples were collected from Bandar Rawdah (Muscat region) by Bongo nets, twice per week, from the surface and the integrated upper mixed layer. The measured environmental variables were: temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, turbidity, nitrite, phosphate, wind speed and rainfall. During the winter bloom (from December 2014 through February 2015), the abundance exhibited the highest concentration on 17 February (640.24×106 cell.L-1) in oblique samples and 83.9x103 cell.L-1 in surface samples, with a subsequent decline up to the end of April. The average number of food vacuoles inside Noctiluca cells was 1.5 per cell; the percentage of feeding Noctiluca compared to the entire population varied from 0.01% to 0.03%. Both the surface area of the Noctiluca symbionts (Pedinomonas noctilucae) and cell diameter were maximal in December. In oblique samples the highest average cell diameter and the surface area of symbiont algae were 751.7 µm and 179.2x103 µm2 respectively. In surface samples, highest average cell diameter and the surface area of symbionts were 760 µm and 284.05x103 µm2 respectively. No significant correlations were detected between Noctiluca’s biological parameters and environmental variables except for the correlation between cell diameter and chlorophyll a, also between symbiotic algae surface area and chlorophyll a. The high correlation of chlorophyll a was as a reason of endosymbiotic algae Pedinomonas noctilucae and green Noctiluca enhanced chlorophyll during bloom. All correlations among biological parameters were significant; they are perhaps one of major factors that mediating high growth rates, generating millions of cell per liter in a short time range. The results gained from this study will provide a beneficial background for understanding deeply the development of coastal algal blooms of Noctiluca scintillans. Moreover, results could be used in different applications related to marine environment.

Keywords: abundance, feeding activities, Noctiluca scintillans, Oman

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Authors: Andrea Gion Saluz, Tal Hertig, Axel Heinrich, Stefan Stevanovic

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Higher temperatures, seasonal changes in precipitation, and extreme weather events are increasingly affecting trees. To counteract the increasing challenges of urban trees, strategies are increasingly being sought to preserve existing tree populations on the one hand and to prepare for the coming years on the other. One such strategy lies in strategic climate tree species selection. The search is on for species or varieties that can cope with the new climatic conditions. Many efforts in German-speaking countries deal with this in detail, such as the tree lists of the German Conference of Garden Authorities (GALK), the project Stadtgrün 2021, or the instruments of the Climate Species Matrix by Prof. Dr. Roloff. In this context, different methods for a correct species selection are offered. One possibility is to select certain physiological attributes that indicate the climate resilience of a species. To calculate the dissimilarity of the present climate of different geographic regions in relation to the future climate of any city, a weighted (standardized) Euclidean distance (SED) for seasonal climate values is calculated for each region of the Earth. The calculation was performed in the QGIS geographic information system, using global raster datasets on monthly climate values in the 1981-2010 standard period. Data from a European forest inventory were used to identify tree species growing in the calculated analogue climate regions. The inventory used is the compilation of georeferenced point data at a 1 km grid resolution on the occurrence of tree species in 21 European countries. In this project, the results of the methodological application are shown for the city of Zurich for the year 2060. In the first step, analog climate regions based on projected climate values for the measuring station Kirche Fluntern (ZH) were searched for. In a further step, the methods mentioned above were applied to generate tree species lists for the city of Zurich. These lists were then qualitatively evaluated with respect to the suitability of the different tree species for the Zurich area to generate a cleaned and thus usable list of possible future tree species.

Keywords: climate change, climate region, climate tree, urban tree

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Authors: Alfi Al Fahreizy

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Yogyakarta is one of the provinces in Indonesia that often get a power outage because of high load electrical consumption. The authors mapped the electrical energy consumption [GWh] for the province of Yogyakarta in 2014-2025 using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) software. This paper use BAU (Business As Usual) scenario. BAU scenario in which the projection is based on the assumption that growth in electricity consumption will run as normally as before. The goal is to be able to see the electrical energy consumption in the household sector, industry , business, social, government office building, and street lighting. The data is the data projected statistical population and consumption data electricity [GWh] 2010, 2011, 2012 in Yogyakarta province.

Keywords: LEAP, energy consumption, Yogyakarta, BAU

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Authors: Samhita Mummadi, Sree Divya Nagalli, Harshini Vemuri, Saketh Charan Nakka, Sumesh K. J.

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One of the most significant challenges faced by people in today’s digital era is an alarming increase in fraudulent activities on online platforms. The fascination with online shopping to avoid long queues in shopping malls, the availability of a variety of products, and home delivery of goods have paved the way for a rapid increase in vast online shopping platforms. This has had a major impact on increasing fraudulent activities as well. This loop of online shopping and transactions has paved the way for fraudulent users to commit fraud. For instance, consider a store that orders thousands of products all at once, but what’s fishy about this is the massive number of items purchased and their transactions turning out to be fraud, leading to a huge loss for the seller. Considering scenarios like these underscores the urgent need to introduce machine learning approaches to combat fraud in online shopping. By leveraging robust algorithms, namely KNN, Decision Trees, and Random Forest, which are highly effective in generating accurate results, this research endeavors to discern patterns indicative of fraudulent behavior within transactional data. Introducing a comprehensive solution to this problem in order to empower e-commerce administrators in timely fraud detection and prevention is the primary motive and the main focus. In addition to that, sentiment analysis is harnessed in the model so that the e-commerce admin can tailor to the customer’s and consumer’s concerns, feedback, and comments, allowing the admin to improve the user’s experience. The ultimate objective of this study is to ramp up online shopping platforms against fraud and ensure a safer shopping experience. This paper underscores a model accuracy of 84%. All the findings and observations that were noted during our work lay the groundwork for future advancements in the development of more resilient and adaptive fraud detection systems, which will become crucial as technologies continue to evolve.

Keywords: behavior analysis, feature selection, Fraudulent pattern recognition, imbalanced classification, transactional anomalies

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Authors: Rahmi Kafadar, Levent Genc

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In present study, it was aimed to determine potential agricultural lands (PALs) in Gokceada (Imroz) Island of Canakkale province, Turkey. Seven-band Landsat 8 OLI images acquired on July 12 and August 13, 2013, and their 14-band combination image were used to identify current Land Use Land Cover (LULC) status. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to three Landsat datasets in order to reduce the correlation between the bands. A total of six Original and PCA images were classified using supervised classification method to obtain the LULC maps including 6 main classes (“Forest”, “Agriculture”, “Water Surface”, “Residential Area-Bare Soil”, “Reforestation” and “Other”). Accuracy assessment was performed by checking the accuracy of 120 randomized points for each LULC maps. The best overall accuracy and Kappa statistic values (90.83%, 0.8791% respectively) were found for PCA images which were generated from 14-bands combined images called 3-B/JA. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 15 m spatial resolution (ASTER) was used to consider topographical characteristics. Soil properties were obtained by digitizing 1:25000 scaled soil maps of rural services directorate general. Potential Agricultural Lands (PALs) were determined using Geographic information Systems (GIS). Procedure was applied considering that “Other” class of LULC map may be used for agricultural purposes in the future properties. Overlaying analysis was conducted using Slope (S), Land Use Capability Class (LUCC), Other Soil Properties (OSP) and Land Use Capability Sub-Class (SUBC) properties. A total of 901.62 ha areas within “Other” class (15798.2 ha) of LULC map were determined as PALs. These lands were ranked as “Very Suitable”, “Suitable”, “Moderate Suitable” and “Low Suitable”. It was determined that the 8.03 ha were classified as “Very Suitable” while 18.59 ha as suitable and 11.44 ha as “Moderate Suitable” for PALs. In addition, 756.56 ha were found to be “Low Suitable”. The results obtained from this preliminary study can serve as basis for further studies.

Keywords: digital elevation model (DEM), geographic information systems (GIS), gokceada (Imroz), lANDSAT 8 OLI-TIRS, land use land cover (LULC)

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Authors: N. Nandan A. M. Nagaraj, L. Sanjeev Kumar

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In the rapidly growing population, the requirement of electrical power is increasing day by day. In order to meet the needs, we need to generate the power using alternate method. In this paper, a presentable approach is developed by analysis and can be implemented by utilizing heat energy, which is generated in numerous ways in some of the rural areas in India. The thermoelectric generator unit will be developed by combing with control circuits and converts, which is used to light the LED lamps. The temperature difference which is available in the kitchens, especially the exhaust pipes/chimneys of wooden fire stoves, where more heat is dissipated into the atmosphere, can be utilized for electrical power generation. Hence, the temperature rise of surroundings atmosphere can be reduced.

Keywords: thermo electric generator, LED, converts, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 144