Search results for: least square estimation (LSE)

Authors: Graciela Soares Marcelli, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Claudineia Brazil, Rafael Haag

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The sun is a source of renewable energy, and its use as both a source of heat and light is one of the most promising energy alternatives for the future. To measure the thermal or photovoltaic systems a solar irradiation database is necessary. Brazil still has a reduced number of meteorological stations that provide frequency tests, as an alternative to the radio data platform, with reanalysis systems, quite significant. ERA-Interim is a global fire reanalysis by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The data assimilation system used for the production of ERA-Interim is based on a 2006 version of the IFS (Cy31r2). The system includes a 4-dimensional variable analysis (4D-Var) with a 12-hour analysis window. The spatial resolution of the dataset is approximately 80 km at 60 vertical levels from the surface to 0.1 hPa. This work aims to make a comparative analysis between the ERA-Interim data and the data observed in the Solarimmetric Atlas of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, to verify its applicability in the absence of an observed data network. The analysis of the results obtained for a study region as an alternative to the energy potential of a given region.

Keywords: energy potential, reanalyses, renewable energy, solar radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Takeo Shibata, Arihito Endo, Chika Hiraga, Akemi Kunimatsu, Yoko Shimizu

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Introduction: A health promotion program, Yuzawa family health plan, was initiated in 2002. It has been held for fifteen years. Yuzawa Town is famous with hot springs and ski resorts. We evaluated the changes in mental status in elementary school children. Methods: questionnaires survey had been held every five years. 196 questionnaires were corrected (94 boys and 102 girls). Changes for their anxieties, loneliness, confiding, problem-solving, risk breaching, communications, happiness, and life satisfaction were evaluated by chi-square test. Results: The rate of loneliness and life dissatisfactions decreased. The rates of happiness, confiding in grandparents, and risk breaching, increased. Especially, happiness rates increased for boys, loneliness rate decreased for girls, confiding in grandparents and risk breaching rate increased for girls. Conclusion: Our health promotion programs could increase mental health status in elementary school children.

Keywords: health promotion, mental status, elementary school, loneliness, happiness

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Sina Fadaie, Seyed Abolhassan Naeini

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Coastal embankments play an important role in coastal structures by reducing the effect of the wave forces and controlling the movement of sediments. Many coastal areas are underlain by weak and compressible soils. Estimation of during construction settlement of coastal embankments is highly important in design and safety control of embankments and appurtenant structures. Accordingly, selecting and establishing of an appropriate model with a reasonable level of complication is one of the challenges for engineers. Although there are advanced models in the literature regarding design of embankments, there is not enough information on the prediction of their associated settlement, particularly in coastal areas having considerable soft soils. Marine engineering study in Iran is important due to the existence of two important coastal areas located in the northern and southern parts of the country. In the present study, the validity of Terzaghi’s consolidation theory has been investigated. In addition, the settlement of these coastal embankments during construction is predicted by using special methods in PLAXIS software by the help of appropriate boundary conditions and soil layers. The results indicate that, for the existing soil condition at the site, some parameters are important to be considered in analysis. Consequently, a model is introduced to estimate the settlement of the embankments in such geotechnical conditions.

Keywords: consolidation, settlement, coastal embankments, numerical methods, finite elements method

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

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Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Aremu Abdulmujeeb Babatunde

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Background: Low back pain was not only considered to be the most common reason for functional disability worldwide, but also estimated to have affected 90% of the universal population. This study aimed at determining the prevalence, consequences and socio-demographic factors associated with low back pain. Methods; A cross-sectional survey was employed and a total number of 150 self-structured questionnaire was distributed among healthcare workers and this was used to determine the prevalence of low back pain and work related absenteeism. Data was entered using Epi info soft-ware and analyzed using SPSS. Results; An overall response rate of 84% (n = 140) was achieved. The study established that majority (37%) of the respondents were in the age bracket of 20-39 years, 57% female (n=59) and 64% of them were married. the pint prevalence was 84%, 31% of the respondents took leave from work as a result of low back pain. There was high prevalence of sick leave among nursing staff 45.2%, Chi-square test shows that there was a statistically significant association between the respondents occupations and daily time spent during their work (P value 0.011 and 0.042) respectively. Socio-demographic factors like age, marital status and gender were not statistically significant at P<0.05. Conclusions; The medical and socio-professional consequences of low back pain among healthcare workers was as a result of their occupation designations and the daily time spent in carry out this occupations.

Keywords: low back pain, healthcare workers, prevalence, sick leave

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Marco Aniceto, Pedro N. Santos, José C. Freitas

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A methodology based on wavelets is proposed for the automatic location and delimitation of defects in limestone plates. Natural defects include dark colored spots, crystal zones trapped in the stone, areas of abnormal contrast colors, cracks or fracture lines, and fossil patterns. Although some of these may or may not be considered as defects according to the intended use of the plate, the goal is to pair each stone with a map of defects that can be overlaid on a computer display. These layers of defects constitute a database that will allow the preliminary selection of matching tiles of a particular variety, with specific dimensions, for a requirement of N square meters, to be done on a desktop computer rather than by a two-hour search in the storage park, with human operators manipulating stone plates as large as 3 m x 2 m, weighing about one ton. Accident risks and work times are reduced, with a consequent increase in productivity. The base for the algorithm is wavelet decomposition executed in two instances of the original image, to detect both hypotheses – dark and clear defects. The existence and/or size of these defects are the gauge to classify the quality grade of the stone products. The tuning of parameters that are possible in the framework of the wavelets corresponds to different levels of accuracy in the drawing of the contours and selection of the defects size, which allows for the use of the map of defects to cut a selected stone into tiles with minimum waste, according the dimension of defects allowed.

Keywords: automatic detection, defects, fracture lines, wavelets

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: N. Rassoul-ibrahim, E. Siahmed, L. Tadrist

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Water management plays a crucial role in the performance and durability of PEM fuel cells. Whereas the membrane must be hydrated enough, liquid droplets formed by water in excess can block the flow in the gas distribution channels and hinder the fuel cell performance. The main purpose of this work is to increase the understanding of liquid transport and mixing through mini- or micro-channels for various engineering or medical process applications including cool-ing of equipment according to the operations considered. For that purpose and as a first step, a technique was devel-oped to automatically detect and characterize two-phase flow patterns that may appear in such. The investigation, mainly experimental, was conducted on transparent channel with a 1mm x 1mm square cross section and a 0.3mm x 0.3 mm water injection normal to the gas channel. Three main flow patterns were identified liquid slug, bubble flow and annular flow. A flow map has been built accord-ing to the flow rate of both phases. As a sample the follow-ing figures show representative images of the flow struc-tures observed. An analysis and discussion of the flow pattern, in mini-channel, will be provided and compared to the case old micro-channel. . Keywords: Two phase flow, Clean Energy, Minichannels, Fuel Cells. Flow patterns, Maps.

Keywords: two phase flox, T-juncion, Micro and minichannels, clean energy, flow patterns, maps

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Marin Senila, Oana Cadar, Thorsten Janisch, Patrick Lacroix-Desmazes

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The study presents the analytical capability and validation of a method based on microwave-assisted acid digestion for quantitative determination of platinum and palladium in catalysts using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). In order to validate the method, the main figures of merit such as limit of detection and limit of quantification, precision and accuracy were considered and the measurement uncertainty was estimated based on the bottom-up approach according to the international guidelines of ISO/IEC 17025. Limit of detections, estimated from blank signal using 3 s criterion, were 3.0 mg/kg for Pt and respectively 3.6 mg/kg for Pd, while limits of quantification were 9.0 mg/kg for Pt and respectively 10.8 mg/kg for Pd. Precisions, evaluated as standard deviations of repeatability (n=5 parallel samples), were less than 10% for both precious metals. Accuracies of the method, verified by recovery estimation certified reference material NIST SRM 2557 - pulverized recycled monolith, were 99.4 % for Pt and 101% for Pd. The obtained limit of quantifications and accuracy were satisfactory for the intended purpose. The paper offers all the steps necessary to validate the determination method for Pt and Pd in catalysts using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry.

Keywords: catalyst analysis, ICP-OES, method validation, platinum, palladium

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Radha Tomar, Satish K. Jain, Manish Panchal, P. S. Rathore

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In the presented work, inset fed microstrip patch antenna (IFMPA) based two port MIMO Antenna system has been proposed, which is suitable for wireless local area network (WLAN) applications. IFMPA has been designed, optimized for 2.4 GHz and applied for MIMO formation. The optimized parameters of the proposed IFMPA have been used for fabrication of antenna and two port MIMO in a laboratory. Fabrication of the designed MIMO antenna has been done and tested experimentally for performance parameters like Envelope Correlation Coefficient (ECC), Mean Effective Gain (MEG), Directive Gain (DG), Channel Capacity Loss (CCL), Multiplexing Efficiency (ME) etc and results are compared with simulated parameters extracted with simulated S parameters to validate the results. The simulated and experimentally measured plots and numerical values of these MIMO performance parameters resembles very much with each other. This shows the success of MIMO antenna design methodology.

Keywords: multiple-input and multiple-output, wireless local area network, vector network analyzer, envelope correlation coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: G. Venkata Rao, R. Srinivasa Rao, B. Neelima Sri Priya

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The over extraction of groundwater from the coastal aquifers, result in reduction of groundwater resource and lowering of water level. In general, the depletion of groundwater level enhances the landward migration of saltwater wedge. Now a days the ground water extraction increases by year to year because increased population and industrialization. The ground water is the only source of irrigation, domestic and Industrial purposes at Pydibhimavaram industrial area, which is located in the coastal belt of Srikakulam district, India of Latitudes 18.145N 83.627E and Longitudes 18.099N 83.674E. The present study has been attempted to calculate amount of water getting recharged into this aquifer, status of rainfall pattern for the past two decades and the runoff is calculated by using Khosla’s formula with available rainfall and temperature in the study area. A decision support model has been developed on the basis of Monthly Extractions of the water from the ground through bore wells and the Net Recharge of the aquifer. It is concluded that the amount of extractions is exceeding the amount of recharge from May to October in a given year which will in turn damage the water balance in the subsurface layers.

Keywords: aquifer, decision support model, groundwater extraction, run off estimation and rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Kopila Shrestha

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Adolescent sexual reproductive health is one of the most important issues in the world. Reproductive ability is taking place at an earlier age and adolescents are indulging in risk taking behaviors day by day. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Kathmandu valley to assess the knowledge regarding sexual and reproductive health among adolescent. Total of 200 respondents were selected through non-probability convenient sampling technique. Self-administered written questionnaires using semi-structured questions were used. The collected data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistics such as Chi-square test. The findings revealed that most of the respondents had adequate knowledge regarding transmission and protection of HIV/AIDs and STIs but still some respondents had a misconception regarding it. Few respondents had knowledge regarding legal age for marriage and the minimum age for first child bearing. The statistical analysis revealed that the total mean knowledge score with standard deviation was 45.02±8.674. Nearly half of the respondents (49.5%) had a moderate level of knowledge, followed by an inadequate level of knowledge 29.5% and adequate level of knowledge 21.0% regarding sexual and reproductive health. There was significant association of level of knowledge with area of residence (p-value .002) but no association with age (p-value .067), sex (p-value .999), religion (p-value .082) and ethnicity (p-value .114). Nearly half of the participants possess some knowledge about sexual and reproductive health but still effective educational intervention is required in higher secondary school to encourage more sensible and healthy behaviour.

Keywords: adolescents, higher secondary school, knowledge, sexual and reproductive health

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Jagul Huma Lashari, Arabella Bhutto

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Last few years have shown increased an interest of researchers in knowledge and technology transfer. However, facts show fewer types of knowledge transfer practices in the developing countries. This article focuses on assessment transfer channels of academic research produced by highly qualified academicians working in universities in Sindh offering degrees in field of an Environment in Sindh Pakistan. The academic field has been chosen because in field of the environment there is alarming need of research into practice for sustainable development. Using case study approach; in this research qualitative interviews have been conducted from PhD faculty members working in the universities offering degrees in field of environment. Obtained data is analyzed using descriptive statistics and chi-square test with the help of statistical packages for social sciences (SPSS). Research explored 31 channels of academic knowledge transfer from detailed review of literature and exploratory interviews with participants. Identified knowledge transfer channels have been grouped together in 6 groups of knowledge transfer channels; As knowledge transfer through publications, networking, mobility of researchers, joint research, intellectual property and co-operations. Results revealed that academic knowledge have been transferred through publications, networking, and co-operation. However, less number of academic knowledge has been transferred through groups of knowledge transfer channels such as Intellectual Property and joint research.

Keywords: environment, research knowledge, transfer channels, universities

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Itissam Abuiziah

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In several hydraulic systems, it is necessary to calculate the head losses which depend on the resistance flow friction factor in Darcy equation. Computing the resistance friction is based on implicit Colebrook-White equation which is considered as the standard for the friction calculation, but it needs high computational cost, therefore; several explicit approximation methods are used for solving an implicit equation to overcome this issue. It follows that the relative error is used to determine the most accurate method among the approximated used ones. Steel, cast iron and polyethylene pipe materials investigated with practical diameters ranged from 0.1m to 2.5m and velocities between 0.6m/s to 3m/s. In short, the results obtained show that the suitable method for some cases may not be accurate for other cases. For example, when using steel pipe materials, Zigrang and Silvester's method has revealed as the most precise in terms of low velocities 0.6 m/s to 1.3m/s. Comparatively, Halland method showed a less relative error with the gradual increase in velocity. Accordingly, the simulation results of this study might be employed by the hydraulic engineers, so they can take advantage to decide which is the most applicable method according to their practical pipe system expectations.

Keywords: Colebrook–White, explicit equation, friction factor, hydraulic resistance, implicit equation, Reynolds numbers

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Ihejirika Chinedu Emeka, Njoku John Didacus, Obenade Moses

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This study was aimed at determining the impact of meteorological events (seasonal variations) and sand excavation activities on turbidity and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) of Imo River, Southeastern Nigeria. In-situ measurements of the parameters were carried out at the peaks of two consecutive seasons–dry and rainy season at seven major points of sand excavation along the river, under standard analytical methods. There were significant variations in seasons (P<0.05) for turbidity and TSS at all locations. The average turbidity concentration of locations were 36.71 NTU, during the rainy season, and 17 NTU in a dry season, while the average TSS concentration were 27.14 mg/L, during the rainy season, and 8.86mg/L in a dry season. Turbidity correlated positively (strongly) with TSS (r=0.956) at R–Square=0.91. Turbidity and TSS values were higher during the rainy season than the dry season. Turbidity increased when Total Suspended Solids increased. Sand excavation increased turbidity and TSS values of Imo River. The river had moderate water quality during the rainy season and unimpaired water quality during a dry season. The river was not very clear in both seasons, but clearer in a dry season than in rainy season. The increase in turbidity and TSS can lead to the destruction of aquatic biodiversity and stagnation of ecosystem processes. Exposure of aquatic animals to the recorded turbidity level in a rainy season can lead to stress.

Keywords: biodiversity destruction, meteorological events, pollution, sand excavation

Procedia PDF Downloads 488

Authors: Nur Mohammad Ali, Md. Shafiqul Alam, Jayanta Bhusan Deb, Nowrin Sharmin

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The past ten years have seen significant expansion in the aviation sector, which during the previous five years has steadily pushed emerging countries closer to economic independence. It is crucial to accurately forecast the potential demand for air travel to make long-term financial plans. To forecast market demand for low-cost passenger carriers, this study suggests working with low-cost airlines, airports, consultancies, and governmental institutions' strategic planning divisions. The study aims to develop an artificial intelligence-based methods, notably fuzzy inference systems (FIS), to determine the most accurate forecasting technique for domestic low-cost carrier demand in Bangladesh. To give end users real-world applications, the study includes nine variables, two sub-FIS, and one final Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System utilizing a graphical user interface (GUI) made with the app designer tool. The evaluation criteria used in this inquiry included mean square error (MSE), accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity. The effectiveness of the developed air passenger demand prediction FIS is assessed using 240 data sets, and the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and MSE values are 90.83%, 91.09%, 90.77%, and 2.09%, respectively.

Keywords: aviation industry, fuzzy inference system, membership function, graphical user interference

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Khaled Darwish, Islam El Madahh, Hoda Mohamed, Hadia El Hennawy

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Cloud computing has been one of the fastest growing parts in IT industry mainly in the context of the future of the web where computing, communication, and storage services are main services provided for Internet users. Mobile Cloud Computing (MCC) is gaining stream which can be used to extend cloud computing functions, services and results to the world of future mobile applications and enables delivery of a large variety of cloud application to billions of smartphones and wearable devices. This paper describes reliability for MCC by determining the ability of a system or component to function correctly under stated conditions for a specified period of time to be able to deal with the estimation and management of high levels of lifetime engineering uncertainty and risks of failure. The assessment procedures consists of determine Mean Time between Failures (MTBF), Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), and availability percentages for main components in both cloud computing and MCC structures applied on single node OpenStack installation to analyze its performance with different settings governing the behavior of participants. Additionally, we presented several factors have a significant impact on rates of change overall cloud system reliability should be taken into account in order to deliver highly available cloud computing services for mobile consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, mobile cloud computing, reliability, availability, OpenStack

Procedia PDF Downloads 391

Authors: Dwi Kartika Rukmi, Miftafu Darussalam

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Background: The disclosure of women’s HIV status toward their sexual partners is an important issue that should be regarded as one of the efforts to prevent and control the spread of HIV. Research on the disclosure of seropositive HIV status as well as women-related factors in Indonesia, especially Yogyakarta is only a few. Methods: This is a correlational descriptive research along with its cross-sectional approach on 329 women with HIV/AIDS at the Victory Plus NGO from June to July 2016. This research used a purposive sampling method and a questionnaire as the data collection technique. The bivariate analysis test was undertaken by using a chi-square and multivariate test along with a logistic regression. Result: The multivariate analysis and logistic regression show five independent variables related to the disclosure of seropositive HIV status of women with HIV/AIDS toward their sexual partners, namely ethnicity (aOR = 36,859; 95% CI; (6,544-207,616)) religion (aOR =0,255; 95%CI; (0,075-0,868)), discussion with partners prior to the HIV test (aOR =0,069; 95%CI; (0,065-0,438)) , types of sexual partners (aOR = 0.191; 95% CI; (0.082-0,445)) and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status (aOR = 0.036; 95% CI; (0.008-0.160)). The highest level of reason for seropositive HIV women not to be open about their partners’ status is the fear of being rejected by their partners and the environmental stigma of HIV AIDS disease. Conclusion: The disclosure of seropositive HIV status in women with HIV/AIDS in the Victory Plus NGO of Yogyakarta was 79.4% or classified as a high category with some related factors such as ethnicity, religion, discussion with partners prior to the HIV test, types of partners and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status.

Keywords: women, HIV, disclosure, sexual partner

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: A. Shebani, C. Pislaru

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Wear of materials is an everyday experience and has been observed and studied for long time. The prediction of wear is a fundamental problem in the industrial field, mainly correlated to the planning of maintenance interventions and economy. Pin-on-disc test is the most common test which is used to study the wear behaviour. In this paper, the pin-on-disc (AEROTECH UNIDEX 11) is used for the investigation of the effects of normal load and hardness of material on the wear under dry and sliding conditions. In the pin-on-disc rig, two specimens were used; one, a pin which is made of steel with a tip, is positioned perpendicular to the disc, where the disc is made of aluminium. The pin wear and disc wear were measured by using the following instruments: The Talysurf instrument, a digital microscope, and the alicona instrument; where the Talysurf profilometer was used to measure the pin/disc wear scar depth, and the alicona was used to measure the volume loss for pin and disc. After that, the Archard model, American Society for Testing and Materials model (ASTM), and neural network model were used for pin/disc wear modelling and the simulation results are implemented by using the Matlab program. This paper focuses on how the alicona can be considered as a powerful tool for wear measurements and how the neural network is an effective algorithm for wear estimation.

Keywords: wear modelling, Archard Model, ASTM Model, Neural Networks Model, Pin-on-disc Test, Talysurf, digital microscope, Alicona

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Efrizal, Ferdiansyah, Noorlailie Soewarno, Bambang Tjahjadi

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Tax revenue plays an important role in the State Budget of the Government of Indonesia (GOI). The GOI keeps raising tax revenue portion of the Budget from year to year. The low tax ratio of 11 percent in Indonesia shows a big opportunity to collect taxes in the future. The Directorate General of Taxation (DGT) is the institution mandated by the Law to collect tax revenue. This is a case study using quantitative and qualitative approaches. This study introduces contingent factors of taxpayers’ compliance as the mediating variable and internal business process as the independent variable. This study aims to empirically test the contingency theory, especially the mediating effect of taxpayers’ compliance on internal business process-tax revenue relationship. Internal business processes of the DGT include servicing, counseling, expanding, supervising, inspecting, and enforcing. The secondary data of 31 regional offices representing 293 tax offices in Indonesia was collected and analyzed using Partial Least Square. The result showed the following: (1) internal business process affected tax revenue; (2) taxpayers’ compliance did not mediate internal business processes - tax revenue relationship, and (3) taxpayers’ compliance affected tax revenue. In-depth interviews revealed that the DGT needs to make more innovations in business processes in the future.

Keywords: innovations, internal business process, taxpayers’ compliance, tax revenue

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Kovačević, Lidija Jevrić, Evgenija Djurendić, Jovana Ajduković

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There are several methods for determination of the lipophilicity of biologically active compounds, however chromatography has been shown as a very suitable method for this purpose. Chromatographic (C18-RP-HPLC) analysis of a series of 24 17-picolyl and 17-picolinylidene androstane derivatives was carried out. The obtained retention indices (logk, methanol (90%) / water (10%)) were correlated with calculated physicochemical and lipophilicity descriptors. The QSRR analysis was carried out applying principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares regression (PLS). The PCR and PLS model were selected on the basis of the highest variance and the lowest root mean square error of cross-validation. The obtained PCR and PLS model successfully correlate the calculated molecular descriptors with logk parameter indicating the significance of the lipophilicity of compounds in chromatographic process. On the basis of the obtained results it can be concluded that the obtained logk parameters of the analyzed androstane derivatives can be considered as their chromatographic lipophilicity. These results are the part of the project No. 114-451-347/2015-02, financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina and CMST COST Action CM1105.

Keywords: androstane derivatives, chromatography, molecular structure, principal component regression, partial least squares regression

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Nouf M. Al-Ourfi, A. S. Bashammakh, M. S. El-Shahawi

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The redox behavior of dianabol steroid (DS) on Nafion Multiwalled Carbon nano -tubes (MWCNT) composite film modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) in various buffer solutions was studied using cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse- adsorptive cathodic stripping voltammetry (DP-CSV) and successfully compared with the results at non modified bare GCE. The Nafion-MWCNT composite film modified GCE exhibited the best electrochemical response among the two electrodes for the electro reduction of DS that was inferred from the EIS, CV and DP-CSV. The modified sensor showed a sensitive, stable and linear response in the concentration range of 5 – 100 nM with a detection limit of 0.08 nM. The selectivity of the proposed sensor was assessed in the presence of high concentration of major interfering species. The analytical application of the sensor for the quantification of DS in pharmaceutical formulations and biological fluids (urine) was determined and the results demonstrated acceptable recovery and RSD of 5%. Statistical treatment of the results of the proposed method revealed no significant differences in the accuracy and precision. The relative standard deviations for five measurements of 50 and 300 ng mL−1 of DS were 3.9 % and 1.0 %, respectively.

Keywords: dianabol steroid, determination, modified GCE, urine

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Authors: Sonal Budhiraja, Biswabrata Pradhan

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This work considers statistical inference based on progressive Type-I interval censored data with random removal. The scheme of progressive Type-I interval censoring with random removal can be described as follows. Suppose n identical items are placed on a test at time T0 = 0 under k pre-fixed inspection times at pre-specified times T1 < T2 < . . . < Tk, where Tk is the scheduled termination time of the experiment. At inspection time Ti, Ri of the remaining surviving units Si, are randomly removed from the experiment. The removal follows a binomial distribution with parameters Si and pi for i = 1, . . . , k, with pk = 1. In this censoring scheme, the number of failures in different inspection intervals and the number of randomly removed items at pre-specified inspection times are observed. Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are established under some regularity conditions. A β-content γ-level tolerance interval (TI) is determined for two parameters Weibull lifetime model using the asymptotic properties of MLEs. The minimum sample size required to achieve the desired β-content γ-level TI is determined. The performance of the MLEs and TI is studied via simulation.

Keywords: asymptotic normality, consistency, regularity conditions, simulation study, tolerance interval

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Ziba Khalili, Mohsen Sheikholeslami, Ladan Momayez

Abstract:

Combining the photovoltaic/thermal (PVT) systems with a thermoelectric (TE) module can raise energy yields since the TE module boosts the system's energy conversion efficiency. In the current study, a PVT system integrated with a TE module was designed and simulated in ANSYS Fluent 19.2. A copper heat transfer tube (HTT) was employed for cooling the photovoltaic (PV) cells. Four different shapes of HTT cross-section, i.e., circular, square, elliptical, and triangular, with equal cross-section areas were investigated. Also, the influence of Cu-Al2O3/water hybrid nanofluid (0.024% volume concentration), fluid inlet velocity (uᵢ ), and amount of solar radiation (G), on the PV temperature (Tₚᵥ) and system performance were investigated. The ambient temperature (Tₐ), wind speed (u𝓌), and fluid inlet temperature (Tᵢ), were considered to be 25°C, 1 m/s, and 27°C, respectively. According to the obtained data, the triangular case had the greatest impact on reducing the compared to other cases. In the triangular case, examination of the effect of hybrid nanofluid showed that the use of hybrid nanofluid at 800 W/m2 led to a reduction of the TPV by 0.6% compared to water, at 0.19 m/s. Moreover, the thermal efficiency ( ) and the overall electrical efficiency (nₜ) of the system improved by 0.93% and 0.22%, respectively, at 0.19 m/s. In a triangular case where G and were 800 W/m2 and 19 m/s, respectively, the highest amount of, thermal power (Eₜ), and, were obtained as 72.76%, 130.84 W and 12.03%, respectively.

Keywords: electrical performance, photovoltaic/thermal, thermoelectric, hybrid nanofluid, thermal efficiency

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Authors: Umar Farouk Abbas, Danjuma Mustapha, Hamisu Idi

Abstract:

It is now a known fact that quality is an important issue in manufacturing industries. A control chart is an integrated and powerful tool in statistical process control (SPC). The mean µ and standard deviation σ parameters are estimated. In general, the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) and multivariate cumulative sum (MCUSUM) are used in the detection of small shifts in joint monitoring of several correlated variables; the charts used information from past data which makes them sensitive to small shifts. The aim of the paper is to compare the performance of Shewhart xbar, MEWMA, and MCUSUM control charts in terms of their false rates when parameters are estimated with autocorrelation. A simulation was conducted in R software to generate the average run length (ARL) values of each of the charts. After the analysis, the results show that a comparison of the false alarm rates of the charts shows that MEWMA chart has lower false alarm rates than the MCUSUM chart at various levels of parameter estimated to the number of ARL0 (in control) values. Also noticed was that the sample size has an advert effect on the false alarm of the control charts.

Keywords: average run length, MCUSUM chart, MEWMA chart, false alarm rate, parameter estimation, simulation

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Authors: U. N. Vokhidov, U. S. Khasanov, A. A. Ismailova

Abstract:

Background: Currently, the researches on the development of chronic polypoid rhinosinusitis cytokines play a major role. The aim of this study was the comparison of indicators IL-2, IL-4, IL-8 in the peripheral blood and nasal secretions of patients with various forms of chronic polypoid rhinosinusitis. Material and methods: We studied 50 patients with chronic polypoid rhinosinusitis receiving hospital treatment in the ENT department of the 3-rd clinic of Tashkent Medical Academy. It was carried out a comprehensive study including morphological examination, immunological study of blood and nasal secretions on the IL-2, IL-4 and IL-8. Results: The results of immunological studies of peripheral blood showed that patients with ‘eosinophilic’ polyps were increased IL-2 and IL-4 in patients with ‘neutrophils’ polyps were increased IL-2 and IL-8. Immunological investigation nasal secretions taken from patients with nasal polyposis rhinosinusitis showed that patients with ‘eosinophilic’ polyps also increased IL- 2 and IL- 4 in patients with ‘neutrophils’ polyps - increased IL-2 and IL-8. Conclusion: In patients with ‘eosinophilic’ polyps revealed the presence of immunity to the allergy of the body, patients with ‘neutrophilic’ polyps identified immunity to the presence of inflammation, it is necessary to take into account the doctor-otolaryngologist when choosing a treatment strategy for the prevention of recurrence of the disease.

Keywords: chronic polypoid rhinosinusitis, immunology, cytikines, nasal secretion

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Authors: M. N. A. Abdullah, Pritha Roy, R. R. Shil, D. R. Sarker

Abstract:

Alpha-nucleus interaction is obscured because it produces enhanced cross-sections at large scattering angles known as anomaly in large angle scattering (ALAS). ALAS is prominent in the elastic scattering of α-particles as well as in non-elastic processes involving α-particles for incident energies up to 50 MeV and for targets of mass A ≤ 50. The Woods-Saxon type of optical model potential fails to describe the processes in a consistent manner. Folded potential is a good candidate and often used to construct the potential which is derived from the microscopic as well as semi-microscopic folding calculations. The present work reports the analyses of the elastic scattering of α-particles from ²⁴Mg and ²⁸Si at Eα=22-100 MeV and 14.4-120 MeV incident energies respectively in terms of the modified single-folded (MSF) potential. To derive the MSF potential, we take the view that the nucleons in the target nuclei ²⁴Mg and ²⁸Si are primarily in α-like clusters and the rest of the time in unclustered nucleonic configuration. The MSF potential, found in this study, does not need any renormalization over the whole range of incident α energies, and the renormalization factor has been found to be exactly 1 for both the targets. The best-fit parameters yield 4Aα = 21 and AN = 3 for α-²⁴Mg potential, and 4Aα = 26 and AN = 2 for α-²⁸Si potential in time-average pictures. The root-mean-square radii of both ²⁴Mg and ²⁸Si are also deduced, and the results obtained from this work agree well with the outcomes of other studies.

Keywords: elastic scattering, optical model, folded potential, renormalization

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Authors: Ajit Kumar Yadav, Priyanka Yadav, F. Ram

Abstract:

In present study is an effort to analyse the burden of diseases in the state. Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) is estimated non-communicable diseases. Multi-rounds (52nd, 60th and 71st round) of the National Sample Surveys (NSSO), conducted in 1995-96, 2004 and 2014 respectively, and Million Deaths Study (MDS) of 2001-03, 2006 and 2013-14 datasets are used. Descriptive and multivariate analyses are carried out to identify the determinants of different types of self-reported morbidity and DALY. The prevalence was higher for population aged 60 and above, among females, illiterates, and rich across the time period and for all the selected morbidities. The results were found to be significant at P<0.001. The estimation of DALY revealed that, the burden of communicable diseases was higher during infancy, noticeably among males than females in 2002. However, females aged 1-5 years were more vulnerable to report communicable diseases than the corresponding males. The age distribution of DALY indicates that individuals aged below 5 years and above 60 year were more susceptible to ill health. The growing incidence of non-communicable diseases especially among the older generations put additional burden on the health system in the state. The state has to grapple with the unsettled preventable infectious diseases in one hand and growing non-communicable in other hand.

Keywords: disease burden, non-communicable, communicable, India and region

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Authors: Alessandra Marcelletti, Giovanni Trovato

Abstract:

Corruption in public offices is found to be the reflection of country-specific features, however, the exact magnitude and the statistical significance of its determinants effect has not yet been identified. The paper aims to propose an estimation method to measure the impact of country fundamentals on corruption, showing that covariates could differently affect the extent of corruption across countries. Thus, we exploit a model able to take into account different factors affecting the incentive to ask or to be asked for a bribe, coherently with the use of the Corruption Perception Index. We assume that discordant results achieved in literature may be explained by omitted hidden factors affecting the agents' decision process. Moreover, assuming homogeneous covariates effect may lead to unreliable conclusions since the country-specific environment is not accounted for. We apply a Finite Mixture Model with concomitant variables to 129 countries from 1995 to 2006, accounting for the impact of the initial conditions in the socio-economic structure on the corruption patterns. Our findings confirm the hypothesis of the decision process of accepting or asking for a bribe varies with specific country fundamental features.

Keywords: Corruption, Finite Mixture Models, Concomitant Variables, Countries Classification

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