Search results for: tail value at risk

Authors: Edwin Mwasakidzeni Mutyenyoka

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Without ignoring migration-related challenges in transit zones and places of origin, this inquiry focuses on arrived international immigrants’ exacerbated vulnerability during crises. The aim is to underline longstanding inequalities and demonstrate that crises merely amplify and exacerbate challenges that low-income migrants already face during ‘non-crises’ periods. Social protection, as an agenda for reducing vulnerability, poverty, and risk for low-income households, with regard to basic consumption and services, has been foregrounded in the post-apartheid development discourse in South Africa. Evidently, however, the state, through the South African Social Security Agency (SASSA), systemically excludes the majority of non-citizens from state-sponsored social assistance programs - often leaving them heavily dependent on sporadic non-state options and erosive coping mechanisms. In this paper, migration itself should not only be understood as a social protection strategy against poverty and risk but also as a source of vulnerability that often requires social protection. For quasi-ethnographic, it use one migrant destination, Alex Park Township, as a “contact zone” and space of negotiation during the pandemic.

Keywords: south-south migration, crises, social protection, Covid-19 pandemic

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Authors: Rekaya A. Shabbir, Marco Mingarelli, Glenn Flux, Ananya Choudhury, Tim A. D. Smith

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Introduction: Heterogeneity of dose distributions across a tumour is problematic for targeted radiotherapy. Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) enhance dose-distributions of targeted radionuclides. The aim of this study is to demonstrate if tumour dose-distribution of targeted AuNPs radiolabelled with either of two radioisotopes (¹⁷⁷Lu and ⁹⁰Y) in breast cancer cells produced homogeneous dose distributions. Moreover, in vitro and in vivo studies were conducted to study the importance of receptor level on cytotoxicity of EGFR-targeted AuNPs in breast and colorectal cancer cells. Methods: AuNPs were functionalised with DOTA and OPPS-PEG-SVA to optimise labelling with radionuclide tracers and targeting with Erbitux. Radionuclides were chelated with DOTA, and the uptake of the radiolabelled AuNPs and targeted activity in vitro in both cell lines measured using liquid scintillation counting. Cells with medium (HCT8) and high (MDA-MB-468) EGFR expression were incubated with targeted ¹⁷⁷Lu-AuNPs for 4h, then washed and allowed to form colonies. Nude mice bearing tumours were used to study the biodistribution by injecting ¹⁷⁷Lu-AuNPs or ⁹⁰Y-AuNPs via the tail vein. Heterogeneity of dose-distribution in tumours was determined using autoradiography. Results: Colony formation (% control) was 81 ± 4.7% (HCT8) and 32 ± 9% (MDA-MB-468). High uptake was observed in the liver and spleen, indicating hepatobiliary excretion. Imaging showed heterogeneity in dose-distributions for both radionuclides across the tumours. Conclusion: The cytotoxic effect of EGFR-targeted AuNPs is greater in cells with higher EGFR expression. Dose-distributions for individual radiolabelled nanoparticles were heterogeneous across tumours. Further strategies are required to improve the uniformity of dose distribution prior to clinical trials.

Keywords: cancer cells, dose distributions, radionuclide therapy, targeted gold nanoparticles

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Authors: Zal U’yun Wan Mahmood, Norfaizal Mohamed, Nita Salina Abu Bakar, Yii Mei Wo, Abdul Kadir Ishak, Mohamad Noh Sawon, Mohd Tarmizi Ishak, Khairul Nizam Razali

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The study of thorium radiotracer bioaccumulation in the whole body tropical freshwater fish (Anabas testudeneus; climb pearch) was performed. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different Th-232 activity concentration andradiological dose in Anabas testudeneus under the laboratory bioaccumulation condition. Anabas testudeneus adults were exposed to different waterborne Th-232 levels: 0 BqL-1 (control), 50 BqL-1, 100 BqL-1,150 BqL-1and 200 BqL-1for 30 days. Radionuclide concentration ratios between the whole body levels and water levels were calculated and; total dose rates and risk quotients using ERICA Assessment Tool were also estimated. The results showed the increase of waterborne Th-232 concentration corresponded to a progressive decrease of Th concentration ratio. Meanwhile, the total dose rate (internal and external) in the whole body of Anabas testudeneus less than the ERICA dose rate screening value of 10 µGyh-1 and the risk quotient less than one. Thus, the findings can be concluded that the radiological dose of Th-232 to Anabas testudeneus is a very low probability and the situation may be considered to be of negligible radiological concern.

Keywords: Anabas testudeneus, bioaccumulation, radiological dose, Th-232

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Authors: Rasha Shoumar

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Background: Since the onset of the Syria crisis in 2011, Jordan has hosted many Syrian refugees, many of which are residing in urban and rural areas. Vulnerability of refugees has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic, adding to their already existing challenge in access to medical services, rendering them vulnerable to the complications of untreated medical conditions and amplifying their risk for severe COVID-19 disease. To improve health outcomes and access to health care services in a COVID-19 context, IOM (The International Organization for Migration) provided health services including awareness raising, direct primary health care through mobile teams and referrals to secondary services were extended to the vulnerable populations of refugees. Method: 6 community health volunteers were trained and deployed to different governorates to provide COVID-19 and non-communicable disease awareness and collect data rated to non-communicable disease and access to medical health services. Primary health care services were extended to 7 governorates through a mobile medical team, providing medical management. The collected Data was reviewed and analyzed. Results: 2150 refugees in rural areas were reached out by community health volunteers, out of which 78 received their medications through the Ministry of Health, 121 received their medications through different non-governmental organizations, 665 patients couldn’t afford buying any medications, 1286 patients were occasionally buying their medications when they were able to afford it. 853 patients received medications and follow up through IOM mobile clinics, the most common conditions were hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, anemia, heart disease, thyroid disease, asthma, seizures, and psychiatric conditions. 709 of these patients had more than 3 of the comorbidities. Multiple cases were referred for secondary and tertiary lifesaving interventions. Conclusion: Non communicable diseases are highly prevalent among refugee population in Jordan, access to medical services have proven to be a challenge in rural areas especially during the COVID-19 era, many of the patients have multiple uncontrolled medical conditions placing them at risk for complications and risk for severe COVID-19 disease. Deployment of mobile clinics to rural areas plays an essential role in managing such medical conditions, thus improving the continuum of health care approach, physical and mental wellbeing of refugees and reducing the risk for severe COVID-19 disease among this group, taking us one step forward toward universal health access.

Keywords: COVID-19, refugees, mobile clinics, primary health care

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Authors: Palak V. Patel, Jessica Pixley, Steven R. Feldman

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Introduction: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is the most common skin cancer worldwide and requires substantial resources to treat. When choosing between indicated therapies, providers consider their associated adverse effects, efficacy, cosmesis, and function preservation. The patient’s tumor burden, infiltrative risk, and risk of tumor recurrence are also considered. Treatment cost is often left out of these discussions. This can lead to financial toxicity, which describes the harm and quality of life reductions inflicted by high care costs. Methods: We studied the guidelines set forth by the American Academy of Dermatology for the treatment of BCC. A PubMed literature search was conducted to identify the costs of each recommended therapy. We discuss costs alongside treatment efficacy and side-effect profile. Results: Surgical treatment for BCC can be cost-effective if the appropriate treatment is selected for the presenting tumor. Curettage and electrodesiccation can be used in low-grade, low-recurrence tumors in aesthetically unimportant areas. The benefits of cost-conscious care are not likely to be outweighed by the risks of poor cosmesis or tumor return ($471 BCC of the cheek). When tumor burden is limited, MMS offers better cure rates and lower recurrence rates than surgical excision, and with comparable costs (MMS $1263; SE $949). Surgical excision with permanent sections may be indicated when tumor burden is more extensive or if molecular testing is necessary. The utility of surgical excision with frozen sections, which costs substantially more than MMS without comparable outcomes, is less clear (SE with frozen sections $2334-$3085). Less data exists on non-surgical treatments for BCC. These techniques cost less, but recurrence-risk is high. Side-effects of nonsurgical treatment are limited to local skin reactions, and cosmesis is good. Cryotherapy, 5-FU, and MAL-PDT are all more affordable than surgery, but high recurrence rates increase risk of secondary financial and psychosocial burden (recurrence rates 21-39%; cost $100-270). Radiation therapy offers better clearance rates than other nonsurgical treatments but is associated with similar recurrence rates and a significantly larger financial burden ($2591-$3460 BCC of the cheek). Treatments for advanced or metastatic BCC are extremely costly, but few patients require their use, and the societal cost burden remains low. Vismodegib and sonidegib have good response rates but substantial side effects, and therapy should be combined with multidisciplinary care and palliative measures. Expert-review has found sonidegib to be the less expensive and more efficacious option (vismodegib $128,358; sonidegib $122,579). Platinum therapy, while not FDA-approved, is also effective but expensive (~91,435). Immunotherapy offers a new line of treatment in patients intolerant of hedgehog inhibitors ($683,061). Conclusion: Dermatologists working within resource-compressed practices and with resource-limited patients must prudently manage the healthcare dollar. Surgical therapies for BCC offer the lowest risk of recurrence at the most reasonable cost. Non-surgical therapies are more affordable, but high recurrence rates increase the risk of secondary financial and psychosocial burdens. Treatments for advanced BCC are incredibly costly, but the low incidence means the overall cost to the system is low.

Keywords: nonmelanoma skin cancer, basal cell skin cancer, squamous cell skin cancer, cost of care

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Authors: Jenny Fairthorne, Yuka Mori, Helen Leonard

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Background: Primary care-givers of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or intellectual disability (ID) have poorer health and quality of life (QoL) than primary care-givers (hereafter referred to as just care-givers) of typically developing children. We aimed to review original research which described factors impacting the health of care-givers of children with ASD or ID and to discuss how these factors might influence care-giver health. Methods: We searched Web of Knowledge, Medline, Scopus and Google Scholar using selections of words from each of three groups. The first comprised terms associated with ASD and ID and included autism, pervasive development disorder, intellectual disability, mental retardation, disability, disabled, Down and Asperger. The second included terms related to health such as depression, physical, mental, psychiatric, psychological and well-being. The third was terms related to care-givers such as mother, parent and care-giver. We included an original paper in our review if it was published between 1st January 1990 and 31st December, 2016, described original research in a peer-reviewed journal and was written in English. Additional criteria were that the research used a study population of 15 persons or more; described a risk or protective factor for the health of care-givers of a child with ASD, ID or a sub-type (such as ASD with ID or Down syndrome). Using previous research, we developed a simple and objective five-level tool to assess the strength of evidence provided by the reviewed papers. Results: We retained 33 papers. Factors impacting primary care-giver health included child behaviour, level of support, socio-economic status (SES) and diagnostic issues. Challenging child behaviour, the most commonly identified risk factor for poorer care-giver health and QoL was reported in ten of the studies. A higher level of support was associated with improved care-giver health and QoL. For example, substantial evidence indicated that family support reduced care-giver burden in families with a child with ASD and that family and neighbourhood support was associated with improved care-giver mental health. Higher socio-economic status (SES) was a protective factor for care-giver health and particularly maternal health. Diagnostic uncertainty and an unclear prognosis are factors which can cause the greatest concern to care-givers of children with ASD and those for whom a cause of their child’s ID has not been identified. We explain how each of these factors might impact caregiver health and how they might act differentially in care-givers of children with different types of ASD or ID (such as Down syndrome and ASD without ID). Conclusion: Care-givers of children with ASD may be more likely to experience many risk factors and less likely to experience the protective factors we identified for poorer mental health. Interventions to reduce risk factors and increase protective factors could pave the way for improved care-giver health. For example, workshops to train care-givers to better manage challenging child behaviours and earlier diagnosis of ASD (and particularly ASD without ID) would seem likely to improve care-giver well-being. Similarly, helping to expand support networks might reduce care-giver burden and stress leading to improved health.

Keywords: autism, caregivers, health, intellectual disability, mothers, review

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Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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Authors: Ratchasak Suvannatsiri

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The objectives of the research are to find the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil and to predict the impact on community members who live nearby the excavation pits in the area of Amphur Pak Thor, Ratchaburi Province in the western area of Thailand. The research was conducted by collecting soil samples from four excavation pits for basic engineering properties, testing and collecting questionnaire data from 120 community members who live nearby the excavation pits, and applying statistical analysis. The results found that the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil can be classified into silt soil type which is cohesionless as the loess or collapsible soil which is not suitable to be used for a pavement structure for commuting highway because it could lead to structural and functional failure in the long run. In terms of opinion from community members toward the impact, the highest impact was on the dust from excavation activities. The prediction from the logistic regression in terms of impact on community members was at 84.32 which can be adapted and applied onto other areas with the same context as a guideline for risk prevention and risk communication since it could impact the infrastructures and also impact the health of community members.

Keywords: lateritic soil, excavation pits, engineering properties, impact on community members

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Authors: Alldila Hendy, Agi Satria

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Background: A colostomy procedure is an important part in the management of surgical procedures in some diseases involving the gastrointestinal tract. So it is necessary to find the factors that influence the occurrence of complications. Methods: This is a retrospective cross-sectional analytic study in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital noting medical records of patients after the colostomy from January 2012 to December 2014 at the Division of Digestive Surgery. Results: In 136 cases of post-colostomy, 66 cases have complications, 14 is early-onset, and 52 is late-onset. 70 is without complications. Most complications are dermatitis, which is 31 (22.8%), cases of infection/abscess/fistula and intestinal obstruction are 13 (9.6%) and 5 patients (4.4%). A rare complication is colostomy retraction by 2 patients (1.5%), colostomy prolapse and necrosis/gangrene, which is only 3 patients (2.2%). A colostomy procedure in emergency surgery is riskier than elective surgery for complications after colostomy (p < 0.007, OR 2.85), Based on the operator who performs a colostomy procedure, the consultant had a lower risk of complications than fellow or resident (p < 0.0001). Based on the age factor, where the age of about 50 years has a risk of complications after colostomy (p < 0.018). Conclusion: The timing of operation (emergency or elective), age, and operator who perform a colostomy procedure have a significant relationship with an increased prevalence of complications after colostomy in RSCM.

Keywords: colostomy, complications, factors, procedure

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Authors: Jorge Santos, Ana V. Girão, F. J. Oliveira, Alexandre C. Bastos

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Protective or decorative coatings containing hexavalent chromium compounds are still used on metal and plastic parts. These hexavalent chromium compounds represent a risk to living beings and the environment, and, for this reason, there is a great need to investigate alternatives. Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) is an environmentally friendly process that allows the deposition of wear and corrosion resistant thin films with excellent optical properties. However, PVD thin films are porous and if deposited onto low corrosion resistant substrates, lead to a degradation risk. The corrosion behavior of chromium-free electroplated coating systems finished with magnetron sputtered PVD thin films was investigated in this work. The electroplated systems consisted of distinct nickel layers deposited on top of a copper interlayer on acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plates. Electrochemical and corrosion evaluation was conducted by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and polarization curves on the different electroplated coating systems, with and without PVD thin film on top. The results show that the corrosion resistance is lower for the electroplated coating systems finished with PVD thin film for extended exposure periods when compared to those without the PVD overlay.

Keywords: PVD, electroplating, corrosion, thin film

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Authors: Nur H. Ahmad, Silvia S. Inge, Vanessa A. Julliete, A. Veraditias, Laila F. Febinda

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Abdominal obesity is a risk factor for metabolic syndrome and mostly found in adolescents. Waist circumference is related to abdominal obesity which has a significant effect on the increase of blood pressure. Inulin is one of prebiotic, that has health benefits by offering the potential for lipid management, that can be useful to decrease the risk factor of metabolic syndrome. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effect of 10 gram inulin-substituted ice cream in waist circumference and blood pressure of abdominal obesity adolescents. Inulin had the ability to produce Short Chain Fatty Acid which can improve blood pressure and waist circumference. Systolic blood pressure was significantly decreased in the treatment group (p=0.028) with the mean of reduction 7.35 ± 11.59 mmHg. However, diastolic blood pressure and waist circumference showed no significant effect. Waist circumference, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure was decreased in control group. These results suggest that inulin-substituted ice cream used as therapeutics and prevention for the early onset of metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: blood pressure, inulin, metabolic syndrome, waist circumference

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Authors: Ezgi Avci-Surucu, Doganbey Akgul

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Turkey’s energy reforms has achieved energy security through a variety of interlinked measures including electricity, gas, renewable energy and energy efficiency legislation; the establishment of an energy sector regulatory authority; energy price reform; the creation of a functional electricity market; restructuring of state-owned energy enterprises; and private sector participation through privatization and new investment. However, current strategies, namely; “Electricity Sector Reform and Privatization Strategy” and “Electricity Market and Supply Security Strategy” has been criticized for various aspects. The present paper analyzes the implementation of the aforementioned strategies in the framework of generation scheduling, transmission constraints, bidding structure and general aspects; and argues the deficiencies of current strategies which decelerates power investments and creates uncertainties. We conclude by policy suggestions to eliminate these deficiencies in terms of price and risk management, infrastructure, customer focused regulations and systematic market development.

Keywords: electricity markets, risk management, regulations, balancing and settlement, bilateral trading, generation scheduling, bidding structure

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Authors: Ramatu I. Sha’aba, Mathias A. Chia, Abdullahi B. Alhassan, Yisa A. Gana, Ibrahim M. Gadzama

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Globally, Diclofenac (DLC) and Ibuprofen (IBU) are the most prescribed drugs due to their antipyretic and analgesic properties. They are, however, highly toxic at elevated doses, with the involvement of an already described oxidative stress pathway. As a result, there is rising concern about the ecological fate of analgesics on non-target organisms such as Daphnia magna and Phytoplankton species. Phytoplankton is a crucial component of the aquatic ecosystem that serves as the primary producer at the base of the food chain. However, the increasing presence and levels of micropollutants such as these analgesics can disrupt their community structure, dynamics, and ecosystem functions. This study presents a comprehensive series of the physiology, antioxidant response, immobilization, and risk assessment of Diclofenac and Ibuprofen’s effects on Daphnia magna and the Phytoplankton community using a laboratory approach. The effect of DLC and IBU at 27.16 µg/L and 20.89 µg/L, respectively, for a single exposure and 22.39 µg/L for combined exposure of DLC and IBU for the experimental setup. The antioxidant response increased with increasing levels of stress. The highest stressor to the organism was 1000 µg/L of DLC and 10,000 µg/L of IBU. Peroxidase and glutathione -S-transferase activity was higher for Diclofenac + Ibuprofen. The study showed 60% and 70% immobilization of the organism at 1000 g L-1 of DLC and IBU. The two drugs and their combinations adversely impacted Phytoplankton biomass with increased exposure time. However, combining the drugs resulted in more significant adverse effects on physiological and pigment content parameters. The risk assessment calculation for the risk quotient and toxic unit of the analgesic reveals from this study was RQ Diclofenac = 8.41, TU Diclofenac = 3.68, and RQ Ibuprofen = 718.05 and TU Ibuprofen = 487.70. Hence, these findings demonstrate that the current exposure concentrations of Diclofenac and Ibuprofen can immobilize D. magna. This study shows the dangers of multiple drugs in the aquatic environment because their combinations could have additive effects on the structure and functions of Phytoplankton and are capable of immobilizing D. magna.

Keywords: algae, analgesic drug, daphnia magna, toxicity

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Authors: Sadia Saleem

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Infertility is a global health concern that may have a long-lasting effect on the psychosocial functioning of an individual. Rich research evidence has shown that women with infertility are at greater risk of adverse psychological experiences than men. The culture plays a risk factor when it comes to infertility. Family is considered as a central focus of a collectivistic culture like Pakistan and having children is the key factor that determines the quality of a marital relationship, individual well-being and overall standing in the society. In this collectivistic cultural context, women usually get the blame and experience more psychological distress and social isolation. A total sample of 121 (M 28.17, SD 4.73) women with primary infertility selected through purposive sampling were tested using Emotional Disclosure Questionnaire, Couple Satisfaction Index and Depression Anxiety Stress Scale. The results indicate that negative emotional disclosure positively mediates the relationship between marital satisfaction and mental health problems (p < .001) in women with primary infertility. The results are discussed in terms of psychosocial counseling and family psychoeducation in Pakistani collectivistic cultural context.

Keywords: infertility, couple satisfaction, emotional disclosure, mental health

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Authors: Mehrdad Sheikhvatan, Mohammad Ali Boroumand, Mehrdad Behmanesh, Shayan Ziaee

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Contradictory results have been obtained regarding the role of integrin, beta 3 (ITGB3) gene polymorphisms in occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Hence, we aimed to assess the association between 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene and increased risk for acute MI in patients who suffered premature CAD in Iranian population. Our prospective study included 1000 patients (492 men and 508 women aged 21 to 55 years) referred to Tehran Heart center during a period of four years from 2008 to 2011 with the final diagnosis of premature CAD and classified into two groups with history of MI (n = 461) and without of MI (n = 539). The polymorphism variants were determined by PCR-RFLP technique by entering 10% of randomized samples and then genotyping of the polymorphism was also conducted by High Resolution Melting (HRM) method. Among study samples, 640 were followed with a median follow-up time 45.74 months for determining association of long-term major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and genotypes of polymorphisms. There was no significant difference in the frequency of 1565C/T polymorphism between the MI and non-MI groups. The frequency of wild genotype was 69.2% and 72.2%, the frequency of homozygous genotype was 21.3% and 18.4%, and the frequency of mutant genotype was 9.5% and 9.5%, respectively (p=0.505). Results were also similar when adjusted for covariates in a multivariate logistic regression model. No significant difference was also found in total-MACE free survival rate between the patients with different genotypes of 1565C/T polymorphism in both MI and non-MI group. The carriage of the 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene seems unlikely to be a significant risk factor for the development of MI in Iranian patients with premature CAD. The presence of this ITGB3 gene polymorphism may not also predict long-term cardiac events.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, gene, integrin, beta 3, polymorphism

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Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný

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This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.

Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility

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Authors: Ogundele Lasun Tunde, Ayeku Oluwagbemiga Patrick

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Heavy metals are released into the sediments in aquatic environment from both natural and anthropogenic sources and they are considered as worldwide issue due to their deleterious ecological risks and food chain disruption. In this study, sediments samples were collected at three major sites (Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro) along Ondo coastal area using VanVeen grab sampler. The concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were determined by employing Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS). The combined concentrations data were subjected to Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) receptor approach for source identification and apportionment. The probable risks that might be posed by heavy metals in the sediment were estimated by potential and integrated ecological risks indices. Among the measured heavy metals, Fe had the average concentrations of 20.38 ± 2.86, 23.56 ± 4.16 and 25.32 ± 4.83 lg/g at Abereke, Awoye and Ayetoro sites, respectively. The PMF resulted in identification of four sources of heavy metals in the sediments. The resolved sources and their percentage contributions were oil exploration (39%), industrial waste/sludge (35%), detrital process (18%) and Mn-sources (8%). Oil exploration activities and industrial wastes are the major sources that contribute heavy metals into the coastal sediments. The major pollutants that posed ecological risks to the local aquatic ecosystem are As, Pb, Cr and Cd (40 B Ei ≤ 80) classifying the sites as moderate risk. The integrate risks values of Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro are 231.2, 234.0 and 236.4, respectively suggesting that the study areas had a moderate ecological risk. The study showed the suitability of PMF receptor model for source identification of heavy metals in the sediments. Also, the intensive anthropogenic activities and natural sources could largely discharge heavy metals into the study area, which may increase the heavy metal contents of the sediments and further contribute to the associated ecological risk, thus affecting the local aquatic ecosystem.

Keywords: positive matrix factorization, sediments, heavy metals, sources, ecological risks

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Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

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Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

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Authors: Riffat Iqbal, Sidra Ihsan, Andleeb Batool, Maryam Mukhtar

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Glaucoma is a gathering of optic neuropathies described by dynamic degeneration of retinal ganglionic cells. It is clinically and innately heterogenous illness containing a couple of particular forms each with various causes and severities. Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most generally perceived kind of glaucoma. This study investigated the genetic association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs10483727 and rs33912345) at the SIX1/SIX6 locus with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in the Pakistani population. The SIX6 gene plays an important role in ocular development and has been associated with morphology of the optic nerve. A total of 100 patients clinically diagnosed with glaucoma and 100 control individuals of age over 40 were enrolled in the study. Genomic DNA was extracted by organic extraction method. The SNP genotyping was done by (i) PCR based restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and sequencing method. Significant genetic associations were observed for rs10483727 (risk allele T) and rs33912345 (risk allele C) with POAG. Hence, it was concluded that Six6 gene is genetically associated with pathogenesis of Glaucoma in Pakistan.

Keywords: genotyping, Pakistani population, primary open-angle glaucoma, SIX6 gene

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Authors: Sadia Munir, Diana White, Aya Albahri, Pratiwi Hastania, Eltahir Mohamed, Mahmood Khan, Fathima Mohamed, Ayat Kadhi, Haila Saleem

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Preeclampsia is a major complication of pregnancy. Prediction and management of preeclampsia is a challenge for obstetricians. To our knowledge, no major progress has been achieved in the prevention and early detection of preeclampsia. There is very little known about the clear treatment path of this disorder. Preeclampsia puts both mother and baby at risk of several short term- and long term-health problems later in life. There is huge health service cost burden in the health care system associated with preeclampsia and its complications. Preeclampsia is divided into two different types. Early onset preeclampsia develops before 34 weeks of gestation, and late onset develops at or after 34 weeks of gestation. Different genetic and environmental factors, prognosis, heritability, biochemical and clinical features are associated with early and late onset preeclampsia. Prevalence of preeclampsia greatly varies all over the world and is dependent on ethnicity of the population and geographic region. To authors best knowledge, no published data on preeclampsia exist in Qatar. In this study, we are reporting the incidence of preeclampsia in Qatar. The purpose of this study is to compare the incidence and risk factors of both early onset and late onset preeclampsia in Qatar. This retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data from the hospital record of Women’s Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC), from May 2014-May 2016. Data collection tool, which was approved by HMC, was a researcher made extraction sheet that included information such as blood pressure during admission, socio demographic characteristics, delivery mode, and new born details. A total of 1929 patients’ files were identified by the hospital information management when they apply codes of preeclampsia. Out of 1929 files, 878 had significant gestational hypertension without proteinuria, 365 had preeclampsia, 364 had severe preeclampsia, and 188 had preexisting hypertension with superimposed proteinuria. In this study, 78% of the data was obtained by hospital electronic system (Cerner) and the remaining 22% was from patient’s paper records. We have gone through detail data extraction from 560 files. Initial data analysis has revealed that 15.02% of pregnancies were complicated with preeclampsia from May 2014-May 2016. We have analyzed difference in the two different disease entities in the ethnicity, maternal age, severity of hypertension, mode of delivery and infant birth weight. We have identified promising differences in the risk factors of early onset and late onset preeclampsia. The data from clinical findings of preeclampsia will contribute to increased knowledge about two different disease entities, their etiology, and similarities/differences. The findings of this study can also be used in predicting health challenges, improving health care system, setting up guidelines, and providing the best care for women suffering from preeclampsia.

Keywords: preeclampsia, incidence, risk factors, maternal

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Harison Masih, Jyotsna Kiran Peter, Sundara Singh, Geetha Singh

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The present investigation deals with diversity of dermatophytes and keratinophilic fungi from different tourist spots such as Agra Fort, Akbar tomb, It-Mat-Ud-Daulah, Mariam tomb, Radha Swami Bagh, and Taj Mahal of Agra City. These fungi are medically important which causes various infections and diseases in humans and animals. The main reservoir of these pathogens are the keratinous substances that increases due to birds and animal activities in the vicinity of monuments, where thousands (5413266) annual visitors from all over the world are visiting. The soil samples were subjected to isolate the pathogenic fungi through bait technique (buffalo skin, chicken feathers, human hair and goat tail hair). Baits were spread over the soil samples and incubated at room temperature for 30-35 days and pure culture isolates were maintained in SDA medium, stored at 4°C. Highest number of visitors were (3906453) from Taj Mahal, minimum 10785 at Mariam tomb annually, the total 271 isolates were encountered from soil samples out of these 18 genera and 38 species were found in different season. Highest incidence was 4.79% frequency shown by Chrysosporium keratinophilum while least 738% frequency occurrence by Trichophyton simii in soil samples. From the present study it was concluded that the incidence of pathogenic fungal isolates were the common in tourists soil that are etiological agents of superficial mycosis. Thus, both human and animal activity seemed to play an important role in occurrence and distribution of keratinophilic and related dermatophytes at various tourist places of Agra city.

Keywords: dermatophytic fungal diversity, bait technique, visitors at tourist spots, human and animal activities, soil samples

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Authors: Winnie Kung, Xinhua Liu, Debbie Huang, Patricia Kim, Keon Kim, Xiaoran Wang, Lawrence Yang

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Considerable Asian Americans were exposed to the World Trade Center attack due to the proximity of the site to Chinatown and a sizeable number of South Asians working in the collapsed and damaged buildings nearby. Few studies focused on Asians in examining the disaster’s mental health impact, and even less longitudinal studies were reported beyond the first couple of years after the event. Based on the World Trade Center Health Registry, this study examined the trajectory of PTSD of individuals directly exposed to the attack from 2-3 to 5-6 years after the attack, comparing Asians against the non-Hispanic White group. Participants included 2,431 Asians and 31,455 Whites. Trajectories were delineated into the resilient, chronic, delayed-onset and remitted groups using PTSD checklist cut-off score at 44 at the 2 waves. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to compare the poorer trajectories against the resilient as a reference group, using predictors of baseline sociodemographic, exposure to the disaster, lower respiratory symptoms and previous depression/anxiety disorder diagnosis, and recruitment source as the control variable. Asians had significant lower socioeconomic status in terms of income, education and employment status compared to Whites. Over 3/4 of participants from both races were resilient, though slightly less for Asians than Whites (76.5% vs 79.8%). Asians had a higher proportion with chronic PTSD (8.6% vs 7.4%) and remission (5.9% vs 3.4%) than Whites. A considerable proportion of participants had delayed-onset in both races (9.1% Asians vs 9.4% Whites). The distribution of trajectories differed significantly by race (p<0.0001) with Asians faring poorer. For Asians, in the chronic vs resilient group, significant protective factors included age >65, annual household income >$50,000, and never married vs married/cohabiting; risk factors were direct disaster exposure, job loss due to 9/11, lost someone, and tangible loss; lower respiratory symptoms and previous mental disorder diagnoses. Similar protective and risk factors were noted for the delayed-onset group, except education being protective; and being an immigrant a risk. Between the 2 comparisons, the chronic group was more vulnerable than the delayed-onset as expected. It should also be noted that in both comparisons, Asians’ current employment status had no significant impact on their PTSD trajectory. Comparing between Asians against Whites, the direction of the relationships between the predictors and the PTSD trajectories were mostly the same, although more factors were significant for Whites than for Asians. A few factors showed significant racial difference: Higher risk for lower respiratory symptoms for Whites than Asians, higher risk for pre-9/11 mental disorder diagnosis for Asians than Whites, and immigrant a risk factor for the remitted vs resilient groups for Whites but not for Asians. Over 17% Asians still suffered from PTSD 5-6 years after the WTC attack signified its persistent impact which incurred substantial human, social and economic costs. The more disadvantaged socioeconomic status of Asians rendered them more vulnerable in their mental health trajectories relative to Whites. Together with their well-documented low tendency to seek mental health help, outreach effort to this population is needed to ensure follow-up treatment and prevention.

Keywords: PTSD, Asian Americans, World Trade Center Attack, racial differences

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Authors: Prasansha Kumari

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This paper intends to identify and analyze customer adoption and attitudes towards mobile banking facilities. The study uses six perceived characteristics of innovation that can be used to form a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward an innovation, namely: Relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trailability, risk, and observability. Collected data were analyzed using Pearson Chi-Square test. The results showed that mobile bank users were predominantly males. There is a growing trend among young, educated customers towards converting to mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The research outcomes suggested that all the six factors are statistically highly significant in influencing mobile banking adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The major reasons for adopting mobile banking services are the accessibility and availability of services regardless of time and place. Over the 75 percent of the respondents mentioned that savings in time and effort and low financial costs of conducting mobile banking were advantageous. Issue of security was found to be the most important factor that motivated consumer adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking. Main barriers to mobile banking were the lack of technological skills, the traditional cash‐carry banking culture, and the lack of awareness and insufficient guidance to using mobile banking.

Keywords: compatibility, complexity, mobile banking, observability, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Pankaj Kumar Jha, Saroj Sapkota, Dil Bahadur Gurung, Raju Kadel, Neena Amatya Gorkhali, Bhola Shankar Shrestha

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The study was conducted to evaluate the seminal attributes, effectiveness of cooling process and post-thawed semen quality of a Nepalese indigenous Khari buck. Thirty-two ejaculates, 16 from each buck were studied for seminal attributes of fresh semen: volume, color, mass activity, motility, viability, sperm concentration, and morphology. The pooled mean values for each seminal attributes were: volume 0.7±0.3 ml; colour 3.1±0.3 (milky white); mass activity 3.8±0.4 (rapid wave motion with formation of eddies at the end of waves to very rapid wave motion with distinct eddies formation); sperm motility 80.9±5.6%; sperm viability 94.6±2.0%; sperm concentration 2597.0±406.8x106/ml; abnormal acrosome, mid-piece and tail 10.7±1.8% and abnormal head 5±1.7%. For freezing semen, further 6 ejaculates from each buck were studied with Tris based egg yolk citrate extender. The pooled mean values of motility and viability of post diluted semen for 90 and 120 minutes each for cooling and glycerol equilibration were 73.8±4.8%, 88.1±2.6% and 69.2±6.0%, 85.0±1.7%, respectively. The pooled mean values of post thaw motility and viability with advancement of preservation time were: 0hour 49.0±4.6%, 81.2±1.9%; 2nd day 41±2.2%, 79±1%; 5th day 41±2.2%, 78.6±0.9% and 10th day 41±2.2%, 78.6±0.9%. We concluded from the above study that the seminal attributes and results of post-thaw semen quality were satisfactory and in accordance with other work in foreign countries, which indicated the feasibility of cryopreserving buck semen. For more validation, research with large number of bucks, different types of diluents and freezing trials by removing seminal plasma followed by pregnancy rate is recommended.

Keywords: cryopreservation, Nepalese indigenous Khari (Hill goat) buck, post-thaw semen quality, seminal attributes

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Authors: Juliza Hidayati, Yesie M. Sinuhaji, Sawarni Hasibuan

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A company producing drinking water through many incompatibility issues that affect supply chain performance. The study was conducted to determine the factors that affect the performance of the supply chain and improve it. To obtain the dominant factors affecting the performance of the supply chain used Analytic Network Process, while to improve performance is done by using Kaizen. Factors affecting the performance of the supply chain to be a reference to identify the cause of the non-conformance. Results weighting using ANP indicates that the dominant factor affecting the level of performance is the precision of the number of shipments (15%), the ability of the fulfillment of the booking amount (12%), and the number of rejected products when signing (12%). Incompatibility of the factors that affect the performance of the supply chain are identified, so that found the root cause of the problem is most dominant. Based on the weight of Risk Priority Number (RPN) gained the most dominant root cause of the problem, namely the poorly maintained engine, the engine worked for three shifts, machine parts that are not contained in the plant. Improvements then performed using the Kaizen method of systematic and sustainable.

Keywords: analytic network process, booking amount, risk priority number, supply chain performance

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Authors: Esther N. Maina, Anna Skowronska, Sridhar Chaganti, Malcolm A. Taylor, Paul G. Murray, Tatjana Stankovic

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Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of human tumours of B-cell origin. The demonstration that a proportion of Hodgkin lymphomas and all Burkitt’s lymphomas harbour EBV suggests that the virus contributes to the development of these malignancies. However, the mechanisms of lymphomagenesis remain largely unknown. To determine whether EBV causes DNA damage and alters DNA damage response in cells of EBV-driven lymphoma origin, Germinal Centre (GC) B cells were infected with EBV and DNA damage responses to gamma ionising radiation (IR) assessed at early time points (12hr – 72hr) after infection and prior to establishment of lymphoblastoid (LCL) cell lines. In the presence of EBV, we observed induction of spontaneous DNA DSBs and downregulation of ATM-dependent phosphorylation in response to IR. This downregulation coincided with reduced ability of infected cells to repair IR-induced DNA double-strand breaks, as measured by the kinetics of gamma H2AX, a marker of double-strand breaks, and by the tail moment of the comet assay. Furthermore, we found that alteration of DNA damage responses coincided with the expression of LMP-1 protein. The presence of the EBV virus did not affect the localization of the ATM-dependent DNA repair proteins to sites of damage but instead lead to an increased expression of PP5, a phosphatase that regulates ATM function. The impact of the virus on DNA repair was most prominent 24h after infection, suggesting that this time point is crucial for the viral establishment in B cells. Our results suggest that during an early infection EBV virus dampens crucial cellular responses to DNA double-strand breaks which facilitate successful viral infection, but at the same time might provide the mechanism for tumor development.

Keywords: EBV, ATM, DNA damage, germinal center cells

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Authors: Olivier Mesly

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This article examines the likelihood of deception on the part of borrowers wishing to obtain credit from institutional or private lenders. In our first study, we identify five explanatory variables that account for nearly forty percent of the propensity to act deceitfully: a poor credit history, debt, risky behavior, and to a much lesser degree, irrational behavior and disconnection from the bundle of needs, goals, and preferences. For the second study, we remodeled the initial questionnaire to adapt it to the needs of institutional bankers and borrowers, especially those that engage in money on-line peer-to-peer lending, a growing business fueled by the COVID pandemic. We find that the three key psychological variables that help to indirectly predict the likelihood of deceitful behaviors and possible default on loan reimbursement, i.e., risky behaviors, ir-rationality, and dis-connection, interact with each other to form a loop. This study presents two benefits: first, we provide evidence that it is to some degree possible to tighten control over lending practices. Second, we offer a pragmatic tool: a questionnaire, that lenders can use or adapt to gauge potential borrowers’ deceit, notably by combining their results with standard hard-data measures of risk.

Keywords: bundle of needs, default, debt, deception, risk, peer-to-peer lending

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Authors: Riyadh Alsultani, Ali Majdi

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It is necessary to develop a design methodology that includes the possibility of seismic events occurring in a region, the vulnerability of the civil hydraulic structure, and the effects of the occurrence hazard on society, environment, and economy in order to evaluate the flood and earthquake risks of coastal bridge networks. This paper presents a design approach for the assessment of the risk and sustainability of coastal bridge networks under time-variant flood-earthquake conditions. The social, environmental, and economic indicators of the network are used to measure its sustainability. These consist of anticipated loss, downtime, energy waste, and carbon dioxide emissions. The design process takes into account the possibility of happening in a set of flood and earthquake scenarios that represent the local seismic activity. Based on the performance of each bridge as determined by fragility assessments, network linkages are measured. The network's connections and bridges' damage statuses after an earthquake scenario determine the network's sustainability and danger. The sustainability measures' temporal volatility and the danger of structural degradation are both highlighted. The method is shown using a transportation network in Baghdad, Iraq.

Keywords: sustainability, Coastal bridge networks, flood-earthquake risk, structural design

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Authors: Jae Woong Sull, Sun Ha Jee

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High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels are associated with decreased risk of coronary artery disease. Several genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for HDL cholesterol levels have implicated cholesterol ester transfer protein (CETP) as possibly causal. We tested for the association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CETP gene and HDL cholesterol levels in Korean population. Subjects were selected from the Korean Metabolic Syndrome Research Initiative study in the Bundang-Gu area. A total of 2,304 individuals from Bundang-Gu were recruited in 2008. Other subjects were selected from the Severance Hospital (N=4,294). SNP rs6499861 in the CETP gene was associated with mean HDL cholesterol levels (effect per allele -2.044 mg/dL, p=7.23×10-7). Subjects with the CG/GG genotype had a 1.46 -fold (range 1.24–1.72-fold) higher risk of having abnormal HDL cholesterol levels (<40 mg/dL) than subjects with the CC genotype. When analyzed by gender, the association of CETP was stronger in women than in men. When analyzed by physical activity behavior, the association with CETP was much stronger in male subjects with low physical activity (OR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.23-1.92, P=0.0001) than in male subjects with high physical activity. This study clearly demonstrates that genetic variants in CETP influence HDL cholesterol levels in Korean adults.

Keywords: CETP, HDL cholesterol, physical activity, polymorphisms

Procedia PDF Downloads 286