Search results for: risk and return analysis

Authors: Chitra Rajagopal, Indra Deo Kumar, Ila Chauhan, Ruchi Joshi, Binoy Bhargavan

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Reliability and safety are essential for the success of mission-critical and safety-critical defense systems. Humans are part of the entire life cycle of defense systems development and deployment. The majority of industrial accidents or disasters are attributed to human errors. Therefore, considerations of human performance and human reliability are critical in all complex systems, including defense systems. Defense systems are operating from the ground, naval and aerial platforms in diverse conditions impose unique physical and psychological challenges to the human operators. Some of the safety and mission-critical defense systems with human-machine interactions are fighter planes, submarines, warships, combat vehicles, aerial and naval platforms based missiles, etc. Human roles and responsibilities are also going through a transition due to the infusion of artificial intelligence and cyber technologies. Human operators, not accustomed to such challenges, are more likely to commit errors, which may lead to accidents or loss events. In such a scenario, it is imperative to understand the human factors in defense systems for better systems performance, safety, and cost-effectiveness. A case study using Task Analysis (TA) based methodology for assessment and reduction of human errors in the Air and Missile Defense System in the context of emerging technologies were presented. Action-oriented task analysis techniques such as Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA) and Operator Action Event Tree (OAET) along with Critical Action and Decision Event Tree (CADET) for cognitive task analysis was used. Human factors assessment based on the task analysis helps in realizing safe and reliable defense systems. These techniques helped in the identification of human errors during different phases of Air and Missile Defence operations, leading to meet the requirement of a safe, reliable and cost-effective mission.

Keywords: defence systems, reliability, risk, safety

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Authors: Parvin Mirmiran, Zahra Bahadoran, Nazanin Moslehi, Fereidoun Azizi

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Background and aim: We aimed to investigate the effects of green fruits and vegetables (green FV) consumption on the 3-year changes of cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: This longitudinal study was conducted in the framework of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, between 2006-2008 and 2009-2011, on 1272 adults. Dietary intake of green FV, including green cabbage, broccoli, lettuce, celery, green beans, green peas, cucumber, leafy vegetables, zucchini, green chili and bell pepper, and kiwi fruit, has been assessed by a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline and second examination. Demographics, anthropometrics and biochemical measures were evaluated at baseline and 3 years later. The associations of cardiometabolic risk changes with mean intake of green FV were estimated. Results: The mean age of men and women at baseline was 39.8±12.7 and 37.3±12.1 years, respectively. Mean intake of green FV was 152±77 g/d. More intake from green FV was accompanied to more intake of vitamin A, α and β-carotene, lutein, β-criptoxanthine, potassium, magnesium and fiber. Consumption of green FV was inversely associated with 3-year change of waist circumference (β= -0.07, P=0.01), total cholesterol (β= -0.11, P=0.01) and triglycerides (β= -0.13, P=0.01). Each 25 g/d increase in consumption of green FV decreased the incidence of hyper-triglyceridemia by 12% (OR:0.88, 95%CI:0.71-0.99) in men. In women, no significant association was observed between consumption of green FV with cardiometabolic risk factors. Conclusion: Higher consumption of green FV could have preventive effects against abdominal fat gain and lipid disorders.

Keywords: cardiometabolic risk factors, abdominal obesity, lipid disorders, fruits, vegetables

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Authors: Ana Corberan-Vallet, Karen C. Florez, Ingrid C. Marino, Jose D. Bermudez

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In 2016, the Region of the Americas was declared free of measles, a viral disease that can cause severe health problems. However, since 2017, measles has reemerged in Venezuela and has subsequently reached neighboring countries. In 2018, twelve American countries reported confirmed cases of measles. Governmental and health authorities in Colombia, a country that shares the longest land boundary with Venezuela, are aware of the need for a strong response to restrict the expanse of the epidemic. In this work, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with an underlying cluster structure to describe disease incidence in Colombia. Concretely, the proposed methodology provides relative risk estimates at the department level and identifies clusters of disease, which facilitates the implementation of targeted public health interventions. Socio-demographic factors, such as the percentage of migrants, gross domestic product, and entry routes, are included in the model to better describe the incidence of disease. Since the model does not impose any spatial correlation at any level of the model hierarchy, it avoids the spatial confounding problem and provides a suitable framework to estimate the fixed-effect coefficients associated with spatially-structured covariates.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, cluster identification, disease mapping, risk estimation

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Authors: Pratima Pokharel

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When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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Authors: Jean-Paul Kapuya Bulaba Nyembwe, John Omomoluwa Ogundiran, Manuel Carlos Gameiro da Silva

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Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) remains a global concern because it impacts people's comfort, health, performance, and general well-being. People spend a significant amount of time in buildings or while commuting, hence ensuring the minimal risk in indoor spaces by ensuring suitable IEQ. IEQ studies are limited regarding developing sub-Saharan countries, whereas there is also a huge risk and concern for the current population and geometric growth as many cities in the region will become mega-cities by 2040 (World Bank report). The absence of suitable IEQ regulations and energy poverty are reasons to assess the IEQ gaps for increased awareness of sustainable interventions to minimize the associated risk. This study evaluates the gaps and potential hazards that exist in the IEQ of sub-Saharan countries using empirical studies of hospital occupants and BRT bus passengers and drivers. The Surveys were conducted in 3 cities of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Lagos metropolis of Nigeria. The results suggest that gaps exist in IEQ for these regions. The gaps indicate existential risk to people’s health, comfort, and well-being. The inferential conclusions are that there is a need for further scientific studies, improvement in IEQ conditions, and ensuring suitable regulations for developing sub-Saharan countries.

Keywords: health hazards, hospitals indoor environmental quality, indoor spaces, occupants, sub-Saharan countries, vehicles

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Authors: Hafiz Muhammad Tayyab Bhatti, Munazza Usmani

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One of nature's most destructive occurrences, floods do immense damage to communities and economic losses. Nigeria country, specifically southern Nigeria, is known for being prone to flooding. Even though periodic flooding occurs in Nigeria frequently, the floods of 2022 were the worst since those in 2012. Flood vulnerability analysis and mapping are still lacking in this region due to the very limited historical hydrological measurements and surveys on the effects of floods, which makes it difficult to develop and put into practice efficient flood protection measures. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are useful approaches to detecting, determining, and estimating the flood extent and its impacts. In this study, NOAA VIIR has been used to extract the flood extent using the flood water fraction data and afterward fused with GIS data for some zonal statistical analysis. The estimated possible flooding areas are validated using satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The goal is to map and studied flood extent, flood hazards, and their effects on the population, schools, and health facilities for each state of Nigeria. The resulting flood hazard maps show areas with high-risk levels clearly and serve as an important reference for planning and implementing future flood mitigation and control strategies. Overall, the study demonstrated the viability of using the chosen GIS and remote sensing approaches to detect possible risk regions to secure local populations and enhance disaster response capabilities during natural disasters.

Keywords: flood hazards, remote sensing, damage assessment, GIS, geospatial analysis

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Authors: Avhasei Dorothy Rasifudi, Josephine Mandizha

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Cardiovascular risk factors continue to be the leading cause of death in the majority of developed and developing countries. In 2011, the World Health Organization reported that every year an estimated 17 million people globally die of CVD, representing 30% of all global deaths, particularly caused by heart attacks and strokes. The purpose of the study was to determine and describe the prevalence of selected cardiovascular risk factors among university of Venda staff. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 100 staff aged 20-65 years. The anthropometric measurements were conducted in accordance to and with standardized procedures advocated by the International Society for the Advanced Kinanthropometry. Weight, Height, waist circumference and hip circumference were measured for calculation of body mass index and waist-hip ratio. Blood pressure was measured using a Heine cuff and sphygmomanometer. Questionnaire was administered to gather demographic details and cardiovascular risk factors of hypertension and obesity. Data were analyzed using mean and standard deviation. The parameter t-test was applied to test significance level at p ≤ 0.05 between sexes. The statistical significance was set at p ≤ 0.05. The prevalence of hypertension was 23% with the highest prevalence amongst those aged 40 years and above. Factors found to be to be significantly associated with hypertension were gender, age, physical inactivity and family history. Prevalence of obesity was 43%, with the highest prevalence among those aged 40 years. The factors associated with obesity were diet, age and physical activity. The prevalence of hypertension and obesity in the study were high.

Keywords: cardiovascular, prevalence, risk factors, staff

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Authors: Maria Cherepanova, Svetlana Maximova

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Background And Aims: Suicide is among ten most common causes of death of the working-age population in the world. According to the WHO forecasts, by 2025 suicide will be the third leading cause of death, after cardiovascular diseases and cancer. In 2019, the global suicide rate in the world was 10,5 per 100,000 people. In Russia, the average figure was 11.6. However, in some depressed regions of Russia, such as Buryatia and Altai, it reaches 35.3. The aim of this study was to develop models based on the regional factors of social well-being deprivation that provoke the suicidal risk of various age groups of Russian population. We also investigated suicidal risk prevention in modern Russia, analyzed its efficacy, and developed recommendations for suicidal risk prevention improvement. Methods: In this study, we analyzed the data from sociological surveys from six regions of Russia. Totally we interviewed 4200 people, the age of the respondents was from 16 to 70 years. The results were subjected to factorial and regression analyzes. Results: The results of our study indicate that young people are especially socially vulnerable, which result in ineffective patterns of self-preservation behavior and increase the risk of suicide. That is due to lack of anti-suicidal barriers formation; low importance of vital values; the difficulty or impossibility to achieve basic needs; low satisfaction with family and professional life; and decrease in personal unconditional significance. The suicidal risk of the middle-aged population is due to a decrease in social well-being in the main aspects of life, which determines low satisfaction, decrease in ontological security, and the prevalence of auto-aggressive deviations. The suicidal risk of the elderly population is due to increased factors of social exclusion which result in narrowing the social space and limiting the richness of life. Conclusions: The existing system for lowering suicide risk in modern Russia is predominantly oriented to a medical treatment, which provides only intervention to people who already committed suicide, that significantly limits its preventive effectiveness and social control of this deviation. The national strategy for suicide risk reduction in modern Russian society should combine medical and social activities, designed to minimize possible situations resulting to suicide. The strategy for elimination of suicidal risk should include a systematic and significant improvement of the social well-being of the population and aim at overcoming the basic aspects of social disadvantages such as poverty, unemployment as well as implementing innovative mental health improvement, developing life-saving behavior that will help to counter suicides in Russia.

Keywords: social factors, suicide, prevention, Russia

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Authors: Patricia Wahl, Dirk Bruland, Albert Lenz

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Children of mentally ill parents are a large high risk group for mental disorders which is hardly reached by preventive programs. The children inherit a heightened risk to develop a mental disorder themselves during their lifetime, but they and their parents are often rejecting to seek help. To elicit the factors determining this prevention dilemma, an explorative qualitative interview study is conducted in 25 families with mentally ill parents and yet unaffected children. Inclusion criteria are the children’s age (7 to 14 years old) and that these children live together with the affected parent. With regard to the concept of Mental Health Literacy the following research questions are leading the Qualitative Content Analysis: What are the needs of families with mentally ill parents? How can their help-seeking behaviour be described? What are their subjective illness theories? And which influences do gender, ethnicity and socio-economic status have on needs, help-seeking and illness theories? Mental Health Literacy relates to the knowledge and attitudes towards mental disorders influencing the recognition, management or prevention of these disorders. The concept seems to be an interesting starting point for our analysis with the aim to understand antecedences and processes in the families more deeply. Results of an extensive literature review serve as deductive framework for our analysis, first findings from the interviews will be available up to the time of the conference and can be presented. They hopefully will give inside in the families’ living environment and help to adapt/develop interventions and in the long term reduce health inequalities. The project at hand is part of the Health Literacy in Childhood and Adolescence (HLCA) Research Consortium financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Keywords: children of mentally ill parents, help-seeking behaviour, mental health literacy, prevention dilemma

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Authors: Pingping Zhang, Yanpeng Cai, Jianlong Wang

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Stormwater storage tank (SST) is a popular low impact development technology for reducing stormwater runoff in the construction of sponge city. At present, it is difficult to perform the automatic control of SST for reducing peak flow. In this paper, fuzzy control was introduced into the peak control of SST to improve the efficiency of reducing stormwater runoff. Firstly, the design of SST was investigated. A catchment area and a return period were assumed, a SST model was manufactured, and then the storage capacity of the SST was verified. Secondly, the control parameters of the SST based on reducing stormwater runoff were analyzed, and a schematic diagram of real-time control (RTC) system based on peak control SST was established. Finally, fuzzy control system of a double input (flow and water level) and double output (inlet and outlet valve) was designed. The results showed that 1) under the different return periods (one year, three years, five years), the SST had the effect of delayed peak control and storage by increasing the detention time, 2) rainfall, pipeline flow, the influent time and the water level in the SST could be used as RTC parameters, and 3) the response curves of flow velocity and water level fluctuated very little and reached equilibrium in a short time. The combination of online monitoring and fuzzy control was feasible to control the SST automatically. This paper provides a theoretical reference for reducing stormwater runoff and improving the operation efficiency of SST.

Keywords: stormwater runoff, stormwater storage tank, real-time control, fuzzy control

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Authors: Azazhu Wassie

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This study tried to evaluate the maximum design flood for appurtenance structure design using the given climatological and hydrological data analysis on the referenced study area. The maximum design flood is determined by using flood frequency analysis. Using this method, the peak discharge is 32,583.67 m3/s, but the data is transferred because the dam site is not on the gauged station. Then the peak discharge becomes 38,115 m3/s. The study was conducted in June 2023. This dam is built across a river to create a reservoir on its upstream side for impounding water. The water stored in the reservoir is used for various purposes, such as irrigation, hydropower, navigation, fishing, etc. The total average volume of annual runoff is estimated to be 115.1 billion m3. The total potential of the land for irrigation development can go beyond 3 million ha.

Keywords: dam design, flow duration curve, peak flood, rainfall, reservoir capacity, risk and reliability

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Authors: Veronica Botero, Karen Ortiz

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The Faculty of Mines, of the National University of Colombia, Medellín Campus, is a faculty that has 136 years of history and represents one of the most important study centers in the country in the field of engineering and scientific research, as well as a reference at a global, national, and Latin American level in this matter. Despite being a faculty with so many years of history and having trained a large number of graduates under the traditional mechanistic and androcentric paradigm, which reproduces the logic of the traditional scientific method and the differentiated and severe look between subject-object of research among other binarisms, has also been the place where professors and students have become aware of the need to transform this paradigm into engineering, and focus on the sustainability of diversity and the well-being of the natural and social systems that inhabit the territories and has opened possibilities for the implementation of classes that address feminist pedagogical theories and practices. The class: The return of the witches, is an initiative that constitutes an important training exercise that provides students with the study of feminisms, the importance of closing gender gaps and critical readings on the traditional paradigm of engineering. The objective of this article is to present a systematization of the experience of design, implementation and development of this elective class, describing the tensions that arose at the time when a subject of this style was created and proposed in the Department of Geosciences and Environment, from the Faculty of Mines in 2022; the reactions of the groups of students who have taken it and their perceptions and opinions about ecofeminism as proposals for critical analysis and practices in relation to the environment and, above all, how their readings of the world have changed after having studied this subject for a semester. The pedagogical journey and the feminist methodologies that have been designed and adjusted over two years of work will be explained based on the sharing of situated knowledge of the students and the two teachers who teach the course, who pose challenges to the dominant ideology in engineering since one of them is trained in human sciences and feminist studies and the other, although trained in civil engineering and geosciences, is a woman with diverse sexual orientation and is the first professor to have assumed the position of dean in the 135 years of history of the Faculty. The transformations in the life experience of the students are revealing since they affirm that the training process is forceful and powerful to outline a much more qualified and critical professional profile that contributes to the transformation of gender gaps in the country. This class is therefore a challenge in this Faculty of Engineering that still presents a dominant ideology on gender that has not been questioned or challenged before.

Keywords: feminisms, gender equality, gender bias, engineering for life Manifiesto.

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Nahida Sultana

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Globally, an estimated 58 million people have chronic hepatitis C virus infection, with about 1.5 million new infections occurring per year. The hepatitis C virus is a blood-borne virus, and most infections occur through exposure to blood from unsafe injection practices, unsafe health care, unscreened blood transfusion, injection drug use, and sexual practices that lead to exposure to blood. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes chronic infections that mainly affect the liver leading to liver diseases. This study aimed to determine whether there is any significant association between HCV transmission risk factors in relation to genotypes in HCV-infected Bangladeshi patients. After quantification of HCV viral load, 36 samples were randomly selected for HCV genotyping and risk factor measurement. A greater proportion of genotype 1 (p > 0.05) patients (40%) underwent blood transfusion compared to patients (22.6%) with genotype 3 infections. More genotype 1 patient underwent surgery and invasive procedures (20%), and rather than those with genotype 3 patients (16.1%). The history of IDUs (25.8%) and sexual exposure (3.2%) are only prevalent in genotype 3 patients and absent in patients with genotype 1 (p >0.05). There was no significant statistical difference found in HCV transmission risk factors (blood transfusion, IDUs, Surgery& interventions, sexual transmission) between patients infected with genotypes 1 and 3. In HCV infection, genotype may have no relation to transmission risk factors among Bangladeshi patients.

Keywords: HCV genotype, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), HCV viral load, IDUs

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Authors: Maryam Nabati, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Ehsan Soroosh, Hanieh Shiraj, Mahnaneh Gholami, Ali Ghaemian

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Background: Reported effects of obesity on the extent of angiographic coronary artery disease(CAD) have beeninconsistent. The present study aimed to investigate the relationships between the indices of obesity and otheranthropometric markers with the extent of CAD. Methods: This study was conducted on 1008 consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography. Bodymass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) wereseparately calculated for each patient. Extent, severity, and complexity of CAD were determined by the Gensini andSYNTAX scores. Results: According to the results, there was a significant inverse correlation between the SYNTAX score with BMI(r = − 0.110; P < 0.001), WC (r = − 0.074; P = 0.018), and WHtR (r = − 0.089; P = 0.005). Furthermore, a significant inversecorrelation was observed between the Gensini score with BMI (r = − 0.090; P = 0.004) and WHtR (r = − 0.065; P =0.041). However, the results of multivariate linear regression analysis did not show any association between theSYNTAX and Gensini scores with the indices of obesity and overweight. On the other hand, the patients with anunhealthy WC had a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) (P = 0.004) and hypertension (HTN) (P < 0.001) compared to the patients with healthy values. Coexistence of HTN and DM was more prevalent in subjects with anunhealthy WC and WHR compared to that in those with healthy values (P = 0.002 and P = 0.032, respectively). Conclusion: It seems that the anthropometric indices of obesity are not the predictors of the angiographic severityof CAD. However, they are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular risk factors and higher risk profile.

Keywords: body mass index, BMI, coronary artery disease, waist circumference

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Authors: Nguyen Thi Loan, Phan Ngoc Thanh Tra

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Container is one of the techniques used in Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EDMR) Therapy. This paper presents the positive results of applying Container technique to “high risk children”. The sample for this research is composed of 60 “high risk children” whose ages range from 11 to 18 years old, housed in Ho Chi Minh City Youth Center. They have been under the program of the Worldwide Orphans Foundation since August 2015 for various reasons such as, loss of parents, anti-social behaviors, homelessness, child labor among others. These “high risk children” are under high levels of stress, anxiety and depression. The subjects were divided into two groups: the control and the experimental with 30 members each. The experimental group was applied Container Technique and the instruments used to measure their levels of stress, anxiety, and depression are DASS-42 and ASEBA. Results show that after applying the Container Technique to the experimental group, there are significant differences between the two groups’ levels of stress, anxiety and depression. The experimental group’s levels of stress, anxiety and depression decreased significantly. The results serve as a basis for the researchers to make an appeal to psychologists to apply Container Technique in doing psychological treatment in a suitable context.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, container technique, EMDR

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Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi

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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.

Keywords: earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability

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Authors: Piyush Sharma, Laltu Chandra, P. S. Ghoshdastidar, Rajiv Shekhar

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Metals processing operations such as melting and heat treatment of metals are energy-intensive, requiring temperatures greater than 500oC. The desired temperature in these industrial furnaces is attained by circulating electrically-heated air. In most of these furnaces, electricity produced from captive coal-based thermal power plants is used. Solar thermal energy could be a viable heat source in these furnaces. A retrofitted solar convective furnace (SCF) concept, which uses solar thermal generated hot air, has been proposed. Critical to the success of a SCF is the design of an open volumetric air receiver (OVAR), which can heat air in excess of 800oC. The OVAR is placed on top of a tower and receives concentrated solar radiation from a heliostat field. Absorbers, mixer assembly, and the return air flow chamber (RAFC) are the major components of an OVAR. The absorber is a porous structure that transfers heat from concentrated solar radiation to ambient air, referred to as primary air. The mixer ensures uniform air temperature at the receiver exit. Flow of the relatively cooler return air in the RAFC ensures that the absorbers do not fail by overheating. In an earlier publication, the detailed design basis, fabrication, and characterization of a 2 kWth open volumetric air receiver (OVAR) based laboratory solar air tower simulator was presented. Development of an experimentally-validated, CFD based mathematical model which can ultimately be used for the design and scale-up of an OVAR has been the major objective of this investigation. In contrast to the published literature, where flow and heat transfer have been modeled primarily in a single absorber module, the present study has modeled the entire receiver assembly, including the RAFC. Flow and heat transfer calculations have been carried out in ANSYS using the LTNE model. The complex return air flow pattern in the RAFC requires complicated meshes and is computational and time intensive. Hence a simple, realistic 1-D mathematical model, which circumvents the need for carrying out detailed flow and heat transfer calculations, has also been proposed. Several important results have emerged from this investigation. Circumferential electrical heating of absorbers can mimic frontal heating by concentrated solar radiation reasonably well in testing and characterizing the performance of an OVAR. Circumferential heating, therefore, obviates the need for expensive high solar concentration simulators. Predictions suggest that the ratio of power on aperture (POA) and mass flow rate of air (MFR) is a normalizing parameter for characterizing the thermal performance of an OVAR. Increasing POA/MFR increases the maximum temperature of air, but decreases the thermal efficiency of an OVAR. Predictions of the 1-D mathematical are within 5% of ANSYS predictions and computation time is reduced from ~ 5 hours to a few seconds.

Keywords: absorbers, mixer assembly, open volumetric air receiver, return air flow chamber, solar thermal energy

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Authors: Nur Atiqah Adam, Mor Jack Ng, Bernard Chern, Kok Hian Tan

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Introduction: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication with short and long-term health consequences for both mother and fetus. Factors such as family history of diabetes mellitus, maternal obesity, maternal age, ethnicity and parity have been reported to influence the risk of GDM. In a multi-racial country like Singapore, it is worthwhile to study the GDM prevalences of different ethnicities. We aim to investigate the influence of ethnicity on the racial prevalences of GDM in Singapore. This is important as it may help us to improve guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to significant risk factors unique to Singapore. Materials and Methods: Obstetric cohort data of 926 singleton deliveries in KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital (KKH) from 2011 to 2013 was obtained. Only patients aged 18 and above and without complicated pregnancies or chronic illnesses were targeted. Factors such as ethnicity, maternal age, parity and maternal body mass index (BMI) at booking visit were studied. A multivariable logistic regression model, adjusted for confounders, was used to determine which of these factors are significantly associated with an increased risk of GDM. Results: The overall GDM prevalence rate based on WHO 1999 criteria & at risk screening (race alone not a risk factor) was 8.86%. GDM rates were higher among women above 35 years old (15.96%), obese (15.15%) and multiparous women (10.12%). Indians had a higher GDM rate (13.0 %) compared to the Chinese (9.57%) and Malays (5.20%). However, using multiple logistic regression model, variables that are significantly related to GDM rates were maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal BMI at booking visit (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal booking BMI (p = 0.006) are the strongest risk factors for GDM. Ethnicity per se does not seem to have a significant influence on the prevalence of GDM in Singapore (p = 0.064). Hence we should tailor guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to maternal age and booking BMI rather than ethnicity.

Keywords: ethnicity, gestational diabetes, healthcare, pregnancy

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Authors: Kyriacos Clerides, Panagiotis Herodotou, Constantina Polycarpou, Evagoras Xydas

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Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in the workplace is a very common problem in Europe which are caused by multiple risk factors. In recent years, wearable devices and exoskeletons for the workplace have been trying to address the various risk factors that are associated with strenuous tasks in the workplace. The logistics sector is a huge sector that includes warehousing, storage, and transportation. However, the task associated with logistics is not well-studied in terms of MSDs risk. This study was aimed at looking into the MSDs affecting workers of logistics companies. It compares the prevalence of MSDs among workers and evaluates multiple risk factors that contribute to the development of MSDs. Moreover, this study seeks to obtain user feedback on the adoption of exoskeletons in such a work environment. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted among workers in logistics companies in Nicosia, Cyprus, from July to September 2022. A set of standardized questionnaires was used for collecting different types of data. Results: A high proportion of logistics professionals reported MSDs in one or more other body regions, the lower back being the most commonly affected area. Working in the same position for long periods, working in awkward postures, and handling an excessive load, were found to be the most commonly reported job risk factor that contributed to the development of MSDs, in this study. A significant number of participants consider the back region as the most to be benefited from a wearable exoskeleton device. Half of the participants would like to have at least a 50% reduction in their daily effort. The most important characteristics for the adoption of exoskeleton devices were found to be how comfortable the device is and its weight. Conclusion: Lower back and posture were the highest risk factors among all logistics professionals assessed in this study. A larger scale study using quantitative analytical tools may give a more accurate estimate of MSDs, which would pave the way for making more precise recommendations to eliminate the risk factors and thereby prevent MSDs. A follow-up study using exoskeletons in the workplace should be done to assess whether they assist in MSD prevention.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, occupational health, safety, occupational risk, logistic companies, workers, Cyprus, industrial exoskeletons, wearable devices

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Authors: Dweepabiswa Bagchi, D. V. Senthilkumar

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Numerous studies have typically demonstrated the devastation of invasions on an isolated ecosystem or, at most, a network of dispersively coupled similar ecosystem patches. Using such a simplistic 2-D network model, one can only consider dispersal coupling and inter-species trophic interactions. However, in a realistic ecosystem, numerous species co-exist and interact trophically and non-trophically in groups of 2 or more. Even different types of dispersal can introduce complexity in an ecological network. Therefore, a more accurate representation of actual ecosystems (or ecological networks) is a complex network consisting of motifs formed by two or more interacting species. Here, the apropos structure of the network should be multiplex or multi-layered. Motifs between different patches or species should be identical within the same layer and vary from one layer to another. This study investigates three distinct ecological multiplex networks facing invasion from one or more external species. This work determines and quantifies the criteria for the increased extinction risk of these networks. The dynamical states of the network with high extinction risk, i.e., the danger states, and those with low extinction risk, i.e., the resistive network states, are both subsequently identified. The analysis done in this study further quantifies the persistence of the entire network corresponding to simultaneous changes in the strength of invasive dispersal and higher-order trophic and non-trophic interactions. This study also demonstrates that the ecosystems enjoy an inherent advantage against invasions due to their multiplex network structure.

Keywords: increased ecosystem persistence, invasion on ecosystems, multiplex networks, non-trophic interactions

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Authors: Muhammad Waqar Ashraf

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Selected heavy metals, namely Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn, Cd, Pb, and As, in seven popular varieties of edible vegetable oils collected from Saudi Arabia, were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF-AAS) using microwave digestion. The accuracy of procedure was confirmed by certified reference materials (NIST 1577b). The concentrations for copper, zinc, iron, manganese, lead and arsenic were observed in the range of 0.035 - 0.286, 0.955 - 3.10, 17.3 - 57.8, 0.178 - 0.586, 0.011 - 0.017 and 0.011 - 0.018 µg/g, respectively. Cadmium was found to be in the range of 2.36 - 6.34 ng/g. The results are compared internationally and with standards laid down by world health agencies. A risk assessment study has been carried out to assess exposure to these metals via consumption of vegetable oils. A comparison has been made with safety intake levels for these heavy metals recommended by Institute of Medicine of the National Academies (IOM), US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA). The results indicated that the dietary intakes of the selected heavy metals from daily consumption of 25 g of edible vegetable oils for a 70 kg individual should pose no significant health risk to local population.

Keywords: vegetable oils, heavy metals, contamination, health risk assessment

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Authors: Polychronis Kapalidis

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In recent years, researchers have started to turn their attention to cyber security and maritime security independently, neglecting, in most cases, to examine the areas where these two critical issues are intertwined. The impact of cybersecurity issues on the maritime economy is emerging dramatically. Maritime transport and all related activities are conducted by technology-intensive platforms, which today rely heavily on information systems. The paper’s argument is that when no defense is completely effective against cyber attacks, it is vital to test responses to the inevitable incursions. Hence, preparedness in the form of testing existing cybersecurity structure via different tools for potential attacks is vital for minimizing risks. Traditional criminal activities may further be facilitated and evolved through the misuse of cyberspace. Kidnap, piracy, fraud, theft of cargo and imposition of ransomware are the major of these activities that mainly target the industry’s most valuable asset; the ship. The paper, adopting a case-study analysis, based on stakeholder consultation and secondary data analysis, namely policy and strategic-related documentation, presents the importance of holistic testing in the sector. Arguing that poor understanding of the issue leads to the adoption of ineffective policies the paper will present the level of awareness within the industry and assess the risks and vulnerabilities of ships to these cybercriminal activities. It will conclude by suggesting that testing procedures must be focused on three main pillars within the maritime transport sector: the human factor, the infrastructure, and the procedures.

Keywords: cybercrime, cybersecurity, organized crime, risk mitigation

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Authors: Hussain Bohra, Pradyuman Sharma

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This study highlights the significance of Balance Sheet Indicators on the corporate performance in the case of Indian manufacturing companies. Balance sheet indicators show the actual financial health of the company and it helps to the external investors to choose the right company for their investment and it also help to external financing agency to give easy finance to the manufacturing companies. The period of study is 2000 to 2014 for 813 manufacturing companies for which the continuous data is available throughout the study period. The data is collected from PROWESS data base maintained by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd. Panel data methods like fixed effect and random effect methods are used for the analysis. The Likelihood Ratio test, Lagrange Multiplier test and Hausman test results proof the suitability of the fixed effect model for the estimation. Return on assets (ROA) is used as the proxy to measure corporate performance. ROA is the best proxy to measure corporate performance as it already used by the most of the authors who worked on the corporate performance. ROA shows return on long term investment projects of firms. Different ratios like Current Ratio, Debt-equity ratio, Receivable turnover ratio, solvency ratio have been used as the proxies for the Balance Sheet Indicators. Other firm specific variable like firm size, and sales as the control variables in the model. From the empirical analysis, it was found that all selected financial ratios have significant and positive impact on the corporate performance. Firm sales and firm size also found significant and positive impact on the corporate performance. To check the robustness of results, the sample was divided on the basis of different ratio like firm having high debt equity ratio and low debt equity ratio, firms having high current ratio and low current ratio, firms having high receivable turnover and low receivable ratio and solvency ratio in the form of firms having high solving ratio and low solvency ratio. We find that the results are robust to all types of companies having different form of selected balance sheet indicators ratio. The results for other variables are also in the same line as for the whole sample. These findings confirm that Balance sheet indicators play as significant role on the corporate performance in India. The findings of this study have the implications for the corporate managers to focus different ratio to maintain the minimum expected level of performance. Apart from that, they should also maintain adequate sales and total assets to improve corporate performance.

Keywords: balance sheet, corporate performance, current ratio, panel data method

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Authors: Tzu-Ting Hu, Jung-Der Wang, Ming-Yeng Lin, Jin-Luh Chen, Perng-Jy Tsai

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The vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) has been classified as group 1 (human) carcinogen by the IARC. Workers exposed to VCM are known associated with the development of the liver cancer and hence might cause economical and health losses. Particularly, for those work for the petrochemical industry have been seriously concerned in the environmental and occupational health field. Considering assessing workers’ health risks and their resultant economical and health losses requires the establishment of long-term VCM exposure data for any similar exposure group (SEG) of interest, the development of suitable technologies has become an urgent and important issue. In the present study, VCM exposures for petrochemical industry workers were determined firstly based on the database of the 'Workplace Environmental Monitoring Information Systems (WEMIS)' provided by Taiwan OSHA. Considering the existence of miss data, the reconstruction of historical exposure techniques were then used for completing the long-term exposure data for SEGs with routine operations. For SEGs with non-routine operations, exposure modeling techniques, together with their time/activity records, were adopted for determining their long-term exposure concentrations. The Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) was adopted for conducting exposure and health risk assessments for any given SEG in the petrochemical industry. The resultant excessive cancer risk was then used to determine the corresponding loss of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). Results show that low average concentrations can be found for SEGs with routine operations (e.g., VCM rectification 0.0973 ppm, polymerization 0.306 ppm, reaction tank 0.33 ppm, VCM recovery 1.4 ppm, control room 0.14 ppm, VCM storage tanks 0.095 ppm and wastewater treatment 0.390 ppm), and the above values were much lower than that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 3 ppm) of VCM promulgated in Taiwan. For non-routine workers, though their high exposure concentrations, their low exposure time and frequencies result in low corresponding health risks. Through the consideration of exposure assessment results, health risk assessment results, and QALE results simultaneously, it is concluded that the proposed method was useful for prioritizing SEGs for conducting exposure abatement measurements. Particularly, the obtained QALE results further indicate the importance of reducing workers’ VCM exposures, though their exposures were low as in comparison with the PEL and the acceptable health risk.

Keywords: exposure assessment, health risk assessment, petrochemical industry, quality-adjusted life years, vinyl chloride monomer

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Authors: Opara Monica Onyinyechi, Ahmad Iqmer Nashriq Mohd Nazan, Suriani Ismail

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Introduction: Global estimates of malaria indicate that at least 3.3 billion people are at risk of being infected with malaria and 1.2 billion are at high risk. The review investigates the effectiveness of health education strategies to increase the level of malaria knowledge and ITN ownership among the populations of sub-Sahara African countries. Methods: A literature search was conducted using Science direct, CINAHL, PubMed, Prisma, Pico, Cochrane library and PsycINFO databases to retrieve articles published between 2000 until 2020. Eleven studies that reported on malaria prevention and intervention using health education strategies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa were included in the final review. Results: Four studies used educational interventions to teach appropriate ITN strategies and promote ITN usage. Two others focused on improving knowledge of malaria transmission, prevention, treatment, and its signs and symptoms. The remaining five studies assessed both ITN use and malaria knowledge. Of these, 10 were eligible for meta-analysis. On average, health education interventions significantly increase the odds of a person in the intervention group to report better malaria knowledge (odds ratio 1.30, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.70, P= 0.05) and higher ITN ownership (odds ratio 1.53, 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.29, P= 0.004) compared to those in the control group. The odds of ITN ownership also substantially increases when the intervention was based on a theory or model (odds ratio 5.27, 95% CI: 3.24 to 8.58, P= 0.05). Conclusion: Our review highlights the various health education strategies used in sub-Saharan Africa to curb malaria over the past two decades. Meta-analysis findings show that health education intervention is moderately effective in improving malaria knowledge and ITN ownership and has contributed to the effort of global malaria strategy.

Keywords: malaria, health education, insecticide treated nets, sub-Saharan Africa, meta-analysis

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Authors: Brian Romansky

Abstract:

There are many practical, commercially available robots and semi-autonomous systems that are currently available for use in a wide variety of construction tasks. Adoption of these technologies has the potential to reduce the time and cost to deliver a project, reduce variability and risk in delivery time, increase quality, and improve safety on the job site. These benefits come with a cost for equipment rental or contract fees, access to specialists to configure the system, and time needed for set-up and support of the machines while in use. Calculation of the net ROI (Return on Investment) requires detailed information about the geometry of the site, the volume of work to be done, the overall project schedule, as well as data on the capabilities and past performance of available robotic systems. Assembling the required data and comparing the ROI for several options is complex and tedious. Many project managers will only consider the use of a robot in targeted applications where the benefits are obvious, resulting in low levels of adoption of automation in the construction industry. This work demonstrates how data already resident in many BIM (Building Information Model) projects can be used to automate ROI estimation for a sample set of commercially available construction robots. Calculations account for set-up and operating time along with scheduling support tasks required while the automated technology is in use. Configuration parameters allow for prioritization of time, cost, or safety as the primary benefit of the technology. A path toward integration and use of automatic ROI calculation with a database of available robots in a BIM platform is described.

Keywords: automation, BIM, robot, ROI.

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Authors: Vijay Meena, Arup Kumar Sarma, Chandan Mahanta

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The environment has been getting contaminated by anthropogenic processes including those that discharge heavy metals to air, soil and water. The present work emphasizes the spatial distribution and vertical profile of six heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Mn, Ni, Fe, Cr) in three layers of mid sand bars (bed surface layer, 50 cm and 100 cm depth) at 42 sampling stations covering around 600 km stretch of the Brahmaputra River, India. Heavy metal analysis was conducted on the sample collected from mid-sand bars in the river stretch to examine the impact of dredging for various hydrological operations in the future. Sediment quality was assessed by calculating six different indices viz., EF, CF, CD, PLI, Igeo, and PERI. In all sediment layers, heavy metal concentrations have been observed to be the same as listed, Fe > Mn > Zn > Ni > Cr > Cu in μg/g. The average concentration of Cu, Mn, and Fe was found in the middle layer while Zn, Ni, and Cr were in the Surface layer. EF indicates higher enrichment in reach 2 which is likely to be due to anthropogenic sources of industrial and urbanized effluents. The sediment of the mid-sand bar was generally found moderately polluted possessing low risk to aquatic lives and the environment. Suggesting, Dredging can be possible in the future. An examination of correlation matrices, principal components analysis, and cluster analyses indicated that these heavy metals possess similar anthropogenic origins for their enrichment.

Keywords: heavy metal contamination, risk assessment, anthropogenic impacts, sediment

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Authors: Elmahdi Khalil, Saad Enniari, Mostapha Zbakh

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Cloud computing promises to increase innovation and the velocity with witch applications are deployed, all while helping any enterprise meet most IT service needs at a lower total cost of ownership and higher return investment. As the march of cloud continues, it brings both new opportunities and new security challenges. To take advantages of those opportunities while minimizing risks, we think that Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) integrated in the cloud is one of the best existing solutions nowadays in the field. The concept of intrusion detection was known since past and was first proposed by a well-known researcher named Anderson in 1980's. Since that time IDS's are evolving. Although, several efforts has been made in the area of Intrusion Detection systems for cloud computing environment, many attacks still prevail. Therefore, the work presented in this paper proposes a multi criteria analysis and a comparative study between several IDS architectures designated to work in a cloud computing environments. To achieve this objective, in the first place we will search in the state of the art of several consistent IDS architectures designed to work in a cloud environment. Whereas, in a second step we will establish the criteria that will be useful for the evaluation of architectures. Later, using the approach of multi criteria decision analysis Mac Beth (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique we will evaluate the criteria and assign to each one the appropriate weight according to their importance in the field of IDS architectures in cloud computing. The last step is to evaluate architectures against the criteria and collecting results of the model constructed in the previous steps.

Keywords: cloud computing, cloud security, intrusion detection/prevention system, multi-criteria decision analysis

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Authors: Mohammad A. Alolayan, John S. Evans, James K. Hammitt

Abstract:

The value of statistical life has been estimated for a middle eastern country with high economical subsidization system. In this study, in-person interviews were conducted on a stratified random sample to estimate the value of mortality risk. Double-bounded dichotomous choice questions followed by open-ended question were used in the interview to investigate the willingness to pay of the respondent for mortality risk reduction. High willingness to pay was found to be associated with high income and education. Also, females were found to have lower willingness to pay than males. The estimated value of statistical life is larger than the ones estimated for western countries where taxation system exists. This estimate provides a baseline for monetizing the health benefits for proposed policy or program to the decision makers in an eastern country. Also, the value of statistical life for a country in the region can be extrapolated from this this estimate by using the benefit transfer method.

Keywords: mortality, risk, VSL, willingness-to-pay

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