Search results for: population projection

Authors: Mary Ostaszewski

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For many years China was riddled by poverty among many other issues and was far from a world power. However, today China has one of the largest GDPs of any country in the world and is a global powerhouse. Since China has accomplished so much, many would presume that this means China is moving away from being a “developing country” alongside countries such as India, Brazil, Israel, etc. into the category “developed country” with countries such as the U.S. Yet, this is not the case as, despite their economic strides, China still has ways to come, especially when it comes to human rights. China faces extreme criticism regarding how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) handles human rights. China has an Orwellian-based society where technology is highly monitored, critics are quickly silenced, and freedoms are heavily restricted. One of their most recent human rights violations is attempting to repress Uyghur populations by placing them into “re-education camps,” where an already vulnerable population is being deprived of their freedoms through severe oppression. These violations create concerns as other developing countries with authoritarian governments follow the example of China. This is mainly because China has seen great success economically while simultaneously being able to maintain its authoritarian regime, thus, inspiring other countries to continue their human rights violations in hopes of gaining success similar to China’s. This idolization of China by other authoritarian regimes creates a concern especially regarding their “re-education” camps. This paper will argue that Chinese “re-education” camps are not only dangerous because they severely oppress and harm the Uyghur population. Yet they are also dangerous because other countries already impressed by China’s success may adopt similar camps in their countries to ensure their oppressive governments retain their tight grasp on power.

Keywords: China, re-education camps, developing countries, Africa, West

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Authors: Gareth Baxter

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We use a mathematical model of language change to examine two recently observed patterns of language change: one in which most speakers change gradually, following the mean of the community change, and one in which most individuals use predominantly one variant or another, and change rapidly if they change at all. The model is based on Croft’s Utterance Selection account of language change, which views language change as an evolutionary process, in which different variants (different ‘ways of saying the same thing’) compete for usage in a population of speakers. Language change occurs when a new variant replaces an older one as the convention within a given population. The present model extends a previous simpler model to include effects related to speaker aging and interspeaker variation in behaviour. The two patterns of individual change (one more centralized and the other more polarized) were recently observed in historical language changes, and it was further observed that slower changes were more associated with the centralized pattern, while quicker changes were more polarized. Our model suggests that the two patterns of change can be explained by different balances between the preference of speakers to use one variant over another and the degree of accommodation to (propensity to adapt towards) other speakers. The correlation with the rate of change appears naturally in our model, and results from the fact that both differential weighting of variants and the degree of accommodation affect the time for change to occur, while also determining the patterns of change. This work represents part of an ongoing effort to examine phenomena in language change through the use of mathematical models. This offers another way to evaluate qualitative explanations that cannot be practically tested (or cannot be tested at all) in a real-world, large-scale speech community.

Keywords: agent based modeling, cultural evolution, language change, social behavior modeling, social influence

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Authors: Elizabeth Grier, Meg Gemmill, Mary Martin, Leora Reiter, Herman Tang, Alexandra Donaldson, Isis Lunsky, Mia Wu

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Background: Individuals with Cerebral Palsy (CP) and/or IDD face numerous physical and mental health challenges, including difficulty accessing effective palliative care. The aim of this study is to assess the knowledge and comfort of healthcare providers in providing community-based palliative care for patients with Cerebral Palsy (CP) and severe to profound Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (IDD). Methods: This study includes a mixed methods approach obtaining both quantitative and qualitative data. Quantitative data from palliative care practitioners was obtained through an online survey assessing comfort in symptom management, grief assessment, and goals of care discussion. This survey was distributed to physicians and allied health practitioners across Canada through the College of Family Physicians of Canada Member Interest Groups for Palliative Care and for IDD. Survey results guided the development of a semi-structured interview template, which was used to conduct a focus group on the same topic. Participants were four palliative care providers (3 physicians and one spiritual care practitioner). The focus group transcript is currently undergoing thematic analysis using NVivo 12 software. Results: 57 palliative care practitioners completed the survey. 87% of participants indicated they have provided palliative care services for persons with CP and/or IDD. Findings suggest practitioners are somewhat confident in identifying specific physical symptoms (dyspnea, pressure ulcers) but less confident in identifying physical/emotional pain, addressing grief, and prognosticating life expectancy in this population. 54% of responses indicated they had little/no training on palliating those with CP or IDD, and 45% somewhat or strongly disagree members of their profession can manage symptoms for this population. Focus group analysis is underway, and results will be available at the time of the poster presentation. Conclusion: Persons with CP and IDD are more likely to experience severe health inequities when accessing palliative care. Results of this study suggest further education is needed for palliative care professionals to address the barriers and challenges in providing palliative care to this patient population.

Keywords: palliative care, symptom management, health equity, community healthcare, intellectual and developmental disabilities

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Authors: Nahela Nowshin, Rafia Sultana, Farzana Misha, Sabina F. Rashid

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Sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) are currently an area of neglect for males (aged 15-24 years) in Bangladesh. The lack of focus on the male youth population has consequences not only for their own health and wellbeing, but the patriarchal structure of Bangladeshi society and socio-cultural norms mean that the male population’s SRH behavior can severely impact the lives of their female counterparts. A majority of sexual and reproductive health and rights-related research and interventions in the country are female-centric. Although the Government of Bangladesh has taken many initiatives to improve the SRHR of the general population, the male youth segment has not been prioritized in most of these interventions. There is an urgent need for male-youth-focused SRHR interventions in Bangladesh, but due to a lack of evidence-based research on this issue, there exist data gaps on how such interventions could be better designed and implemented. Therefore, to ascertain strategies for better program design and smoother implementation of male-youth-focused sexual and reproductive health and rights interventions, we carried out 25 key informant interviews with experts as well as focal persons involved in more than 20 ongoing and recently-ended SRHR-related interventions of national and international non-government organizations in which male youth were targeted or engaged. The results show that program implementers face several challenges at the field, organizational and policy levels. Some of the most common field challenges include high sensitivity to SRHR topics due to cultural reasons, difficulties in acquiring access to boys and young men due to their high mobility and engagement in labor for commercial purposes, as well as accessing them in hard-to-reach areas due to transportation and communication issues. Common organizational-level challenges include a lack of skilled manpower. Policy-level challenges include the prohibition of SRH service provision to unmarried adolescents and youth and lack of readiness of local governments to implement existing action plans. Some ways in which male-youth-focused SRHR interventions can be made more effective are through sensitization of service providers, awareness-raising at the community level to engage parents, advocacy to increase donor interest, and generating data on SRHR of male youth.

Keywords: Bangladesh, intervention, male, SRHR

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Authors: T. Asefi, J. Faiz, M. A. Khan

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This paper introduces dual rotor axial flux machines with surface mounted and spoke type ferrite permanent magnets with concentrated windings; they are introduced as alternatives to a generator with surface mounted Nd-Fe-B magnets. The output power, voltage, speed and air gap clearance for all the generators are identical. The machine designs are optimized for minimum mass using a population-based algorithm, assuming the same efficiency as the Nd-Fe-B machine. A finite element analysis (FEA) is applied to predict the performance, emf, developed torque, cogging torque, no load losses, leakage flux and efficiency of both ferrite generators and that of the Nd-Fe-B generator. To minimize cogging torque, different rotor pole topologies and different pole arc to pole pitch ratios are investigated by means of 3D FEA. It was found that the surface mounted ferrite generator topology is unable to develop the nominal electromagnetic torque, and has higher torque ripple and is heavier than the spoke type machine. Furthermore, it was shown that the spoke type ferrite permanent magnet generator has favorable performance and could be an alternative to rare-earth permanent magnet generators, particularly in wind energy applications. Finally, the analytical and numerical results are verified using experimental results.

Keywords: axial flux, permanent magnet generator, dual rotor, ferrite permanent magnet generator, finite element analysis, wind turbines, cogging torque, population-based algorithms

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Authors: Chengbin Wang, Li Lu, Luodan Suo, Qinghai Wang, Fan Yang, Xu Wang, Mona Marin

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Background: Two-dose varicella vaccination has been recommended in Beijing since November 2012. We investigated a varicella outbreak in a highly vaccinated elementary school population to examine transmission patterns and risk factors for vaccine failure. Methods: A varicella case was defined as an acute generalized maculopapulovesicular rash without other apparent cause in a student attending the school from March 28 to May 17, 2015. Breakthrough varicella was defined as varicella >42 days after last vaccine dose. Vaccination information was collected from immunization records. Information on prior disease and clinical presentation was collected via survey of students’ parents. Results: Of the 1056 school students, 1028 (97.3%) reported no varicella history, of whom 364 (35.4%) had received 1-dose and 650 (63.2%) had received 2-dose varicella vaccine, for 98.6% school-wide vaccination coverage with ≥ 1 dose before the outbreak. A total of 20 cases were identified for an overall attack rate of 1.9%. The index case was in a 2-dose vaccinated student who was not isolated. The majority of cases were breakthrough (19/20, 95%) with attack rates of 7.1% (1/14), 1.6% (6/364) and 2.0% (13/650) among unvaccinated, 1-dose, and 2-dose students, respectively. Most cases had < 50 lesions (18/20, 90%). No difference was found between 1-dose and 2-dose breakthrough cases in disease severity or sociodemographic factors. Conclusion: Moderate 2-dose varicella vaccine coverage was insufficient to prevent a varicella outbreak. Two-dose breakthrough varicella is still contagious. High 2-dose varicella vaccine coverage and timely isolation of ill persons might be needed for varicella outbreak control in the 2-dose era.

Keywords: varicella, outbreak, breakthrough varicella, vaccination

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Authors: Katia C. Bortoletto, Maria Isabel C. de Freitas, Rodrigo B. N. de Oliveira

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The environmental vulnerability studies are essential for priority actions to the reduction of disasters risk. The aim of this study is to analyze the socio-environmental vulnerability obtained through a Census survey, followed by both a statistical analysis (PCA/SPSS/IBM) and a spatial analysis by GIS (ArcGis/ESRI), taking as a case study the Municipality of Caraguatatuba-SP, Brazil. In the municipal development plan analysis the emphasis was given to the Special Zone of Social Interest (ZEIS), the Urban Expansion Zone (ZEU) and the Environmental Protection Zone (ZPA). For the mapping of the social and environmental vulnerabilities of the study area the exposure of people (criticality) and of the place (support capacity) facing disaster risk were obtained from the 2010 Census from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Considering the criticality, the variables of greater influence were related to literate persons responsible for the household and literate persons with 5 or more years of age; persons with 60 years or more of age and income of the person responsible for the household. In the Support Capacity analysis, the predominant influence was on the good household infrastructure in districts with low population density and also the presence of neighborhoods with little urban infrastructure and inadequate housing. The results of the comparative analysis show that the areas with high and very high vulnerability classes cover the classes of the ZEIS and the ZPA, whose zoning includes: Areas occupied by low-income population, presence of children and young people, irregular occupations and land suitable to urbanization but underutilized. The presence of zones of urban sprawl (ZEU) in areas of high to very high socio-environmental vulnerability reflects the inadequate use of the urban land in relation to the spatial distribution of the population and the territorial infrastructure, which favors the increase of disaster risk. It can be concluded that the study allowed observing the convergence between the vulnerability analysis and the classified areas in urban zoning. The occupation of areas unsuitable for housing due to its characteristics of risk was confirmed, thus concluding that the methodologies applied are agile instruments to subsidize actions to the reduction disasters risk.

Keywords: socio-environmental vulnerability, urban zoning, reduction disasters risk, methodologies

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Authors: William Cheng, Yuni Astria, Rini Sekartini

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Background: Prevalence of anemia among school-aged children is relatively high (25.4%). This condition can affect children’s life, including cognitive function. One of the most common factors that is associated with anemia in children is nutritional status. This simple indicator will be very helpful in identifying more population at risk. The aim of this study is to correlate the clinical implication of nutritional status to the prevalence of anemia in children, with intention to determine a more effective nutritional status indicator in detecting anemia. Method: Anthropometric and haemoglobin status were gathered from children between 5 to 7-years-old in one of the urban areas in Jakarta in 2012. We identified children with haemoglobin level under 11.5 as anemia and correlated them to their WHO z-score from each of these indicators: Body Weight for Age (normal weight and underweight), Height for Age (not stunted and stunted), and Body Mass Index for Age (not wasted and wasted). Results: A total of 195 children were included in this research and 57 of them (29,2%) were diagnosed as anemia. The majority of the children had good nutritional status, however, 30 (15,4%) of them were found to be underweight, 33 (16,9%) were stunted, and 1 children (0,5%) was wasted. There were no overweight result found in this population. From the three nutritional status indicators, none proved to be statistically significant in relation to the incidence of anemia (p>0.05). Out of 33 children who were diagnosed as stunted, 36.36 % were found to have anemia, in comparison to 27,7% of children who were not stunted. Meanwhile, among 30 children who were diagnosed as underweight, 33,3 % of them were anemic whereas only 28,4% of the normal weight group were anemic. Conclusion: In this study, there is no significant correlation between anemia with any nutritional status indicator. However, more than a third of the stunted children are proven to have low haemoglobin status. The finding of stunting in children should be given more attention to further investigate for anemia.

Keywords: school-aged children, nutritional status, anemia, pediatrics

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Authors: A. Lianah, B. Peter Sopade, C. Krisantini

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Walikadep/Tetrastigma glabratum (Blume) Planch is a traditional herb that has been used by people of Blumah village; it is believed to have a stimulant effect and ailments for many illnesses. Our survey demonstrated that the people of Blumah village has exploited walikadep from Protected Forest of Mount Prau. More than 10% of 448 households at Blumah village have used walikadep as traditional herb or jamu. Part of the walikadep plants used is the liquid extract of the stem. The population of walikadep is getting scarce and it is rarely found now. The objectives of this study are to examine the stimulant effect of walikadep, to measure growth and exploitation rate of walikadep, and to find ways to effectively propagate the plants, as well as identifying the impact on the environment through field experiments and explorative survey. Stimulant effect was tested using open-field and hole-board test. Data were collected through field observation and experiment, and data were analysed using lab test and Anova. Rate of exploitation and plant growth was measured using Regression analysis; comparison of plant growth in-situ and ex-situ used descriptive analysis. The environmental impact was measured by population structure vegetation analysis method by Shannon Weinner. The study revealed that the walikadep exudates did not have a stimulant effect. Exploitation of walikadep and the long time required to reach harvestable size resulted in the scarcity of the plant in the natural habitat. Plant growth was faster in-situ than ex-situ; and fast growth was obtained from middle part cuttings treated with vermicompost. Biodiversity index after exploitation was higher than before exploitation, possibly due to the toxic and allellopathic effect (phenolics) of the plant. Based on these findings, further research is needed to examine the toxic effects of the leave and stem extract of walikadep and their allelopathic effects. We recommend that people of Blumah village to stop using walikadep as the stimulant. The local people, village government in the regional and central levels, and perhutani should do an integrated efforts to conserve walikadep through Pengamanan Terpadu Konservasi Walikadep Lestari (PTKWL) program, so this population of this plant in the natural habitat can be maintained.

Keywords: utilization, medical plants, traditional, Tetastigma glabratum

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Authors: Karolin Bauer, Anna Brinkmann

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Vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure can cause significant difficulties for the affected population during crises. Securing the food supply as part of the critical infrastructure in crisis situations is an essential part of public services and a ground stone for a successful concept of civil protection. In most industrialized countries, there are currently no comparative studies regarding the food supply of the population during crisis and disaster events. In order to mitigate the potential impact in case of major disasters in Germany, it is absolutely necessary to investigate how the food supply can be secured. The research project aims to provide in-depth research on the experiences gathered during past large-scale disasters in the 34 OECD member countries in order to discover alternatives for an updated civil protection system in Germany. The basic research question is: "Which international approaches and structures of civil protection have been proven and would be useful to modernize the German civil protection with regards to the critical infrastructure and food supply?" Research findings should be extracted from an extensive literature review covering the entire research period as well as from personal and online-based interviews with experts and responsible persons from involved institutions. The capability of the research project insists on the deliberate choice to investigate previous large-scale disasters to formulate important and practical approaches to modernize civil protection in Germany.

Keywords: food supply, vulnerabilty, critical infratstructure, large-scale disaster

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Authors: Fatima Achouri, Zakaria Smahi

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Bir El Djir is an important coastal township in Oran department, located at 450 Km far away from Algiers on northwest of Algeria. In this coastal area, the urban sprawl is one of the main problems that reduce the limited highly fertile land. So, using the remote sensing and GIS technologies have shown their great capabilities to solve many earth resources issues. The aim of this study is to produce land use and cover map for the studied area at varied periods to monitor possible changes that may occurred, particularly in the urban areas and subsequently predict likely changes. For this, two spatial images SPOT and Landsat satellites from 1987 and 2014 respectively were used to assess the changes of urban expansion and encroachment during this period with photo-interpretation and GIS approach. The results revealed that the town of Bir El Djir has shown a highest growth rate in the period 1987-2014 which is 521.1 hectares in terms of area. These expansions largely concern the new real estate constructions falling within the social and promotional housing programs launched by the government. Indeed, during the last census period (1998 -2008), the population of this town has almost doubled from 73 029 to 152 151 inhabitants with an average annual growth of 5.2%. This also significant population growth is causing an accelerated urban expansion of the periphery which causing its conurbation with the towns of Oran in the West side. The most urban expansion is characterized by the new construction in the form of spontaneous or peripheral precarious habitat, but also unstructured slums settled especially in the southeastern part of town.

Keywords: urban expansion, remote sensing, photo-interpretation, spatial dynamics

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Authors: Mohammed Alateeq, Abdulaziz Alrshoud

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Objectives: To examine the attitude and practice of family physicians in giving smoking cessation advice at King Abdul-Aziz Medical City for National Guard, Riyadh. Methods: Cross sectional study using validated self-reported questionnaire that distributed to all family physicians and primary health care doctors at the four main family medicine and primary health care centers, KAMC, Riyadh. Results: 73 physicians are contributed in this study. 28 (38.4%) physicians were from (KASHM ALAN) clinic, 26 (35.6%) physicians were from (UM ALHAMAM) Clinic. 13 (17.8%) physicians were from (ISKAN) clinic. 6 (8.2%) physicians were from the Employee Health Clinic. 73 (100%) of the target population agreed that giving brief smoking cessation advice is part of their duties. 67 (91.7%) agreed that Presence of hospital guidelines and special clinics for smoking cessation will encourage them to provide advice. Only 5 (6.84%) received training courses (1-4 weeks) in smoking cessation interventions. Conclusion: Most of the target population agreed that brief smoking cessation advice is part of their duties. Also, they agreed that Presence of hospital guidelines and special clinics for smoking cessation will encourage them to provide advice although most of them did not received a formal training in smoking cessation advice.

Keywords: advice, attitude, cessation, family physicians, smoking

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Authors: Asim Abbasi, Muhammad Sufyan

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The present experiment was carried out to examine the effects of silicon dioxide on tritrophic interaction of cotton, whitefly, and the predator Chrysoperla carnea. Population of whitefly was maintained on silicon treated and non-treated cotton for two generations in greenhouse net cages exposed to outside temperature and luminosity. The cotton was treated with silicon dioxide twice after 15 days intervals with 200 ppm concentration. A stock rearing of the natural predator was developed in the laboratory conditions. In the bioassay eggs of the predator all at the same age were individualized in glass petri plates that will be pierced with a pin to allow aeration and maintained in an incubator at 28 ± 2°C, 70 ± 10% relative humidity and 12h photo phase. Population of whitefly stayed on silicon treated, and non-treated cotton were offered to newly hatched chrysopid larvae until the end of the larval stage, assuring a permanent supply. Feeding preference of C. carnea along with longevity, survival of each instar larvae, pupation, adult emergence, and fecundity was checked. The results revealed that there was no significant difference in the feeding preference of C. carnea among both treatments. Durations of 1st and 2nd larval instar were also at par in both treatments. However overall longevity and adult emergence were a bit lower in silicon treated whitefly treatment. This may be due to the fact that silicon reduces the nutritional quality of host because of reduced whitefly feeding on silicon treated cotton. No significant difference in 1st and 2nd larval instars and then increased larval duration in later instars suggested that the effect of silicon treated host should be checked on more than 1 generation of C. carnea to get better findings.

Keywords: Chrysoperla carnea, silicon, tritrophic, whitefly

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Authors: Seyed-Yaser Nabavi-Chashmi, Davood Asadi, Karim Ahmadi, Eren Demir

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The landing phase of a UAV is very critical as there are many uncertainties in this phase, which can easily entail a hard landing or even a crash. In this paper, the estimation of relative distance and velocity to the ground, as one of the most important processes during the landing phase, is studied. Using accurate measurement sensors as an alternative approach can be very expensive for sensors like LIDAR, or with a limited operational range, for sensors like ultrasonic sensors. Additionally, absolute positioning systems like GPS or IMU cannot provide distance to the ground independently. The focus of this paper is to determine whether we can measure the relative distance and velocity of UAV and ground in the landing phase using just low-resolution images taken by a monocular camera. The Lucas-Konda feature detection technique is employed to extract the most suitable feature in a series of images taken during the UAV landing. Two different approaches based on Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been proposed, and their performance in estimation of the relative distance and velocity are compared. The first approach uses the kinematics of the UAV as the process and the calculated optical flow as the measurement; On the other hand, the second approach uses the feature’s projection on the camera plane (pixel position) as the measurement while employing both the kinematics of the UAV and the dynamics of variation of projected point as the process to estimate both relative distance and relative velocity. To verify the results, a sequence of low-quality images taken by a camera that is moving on a specifically developed testbed has been used to compare the performance of the proposed algorithm. The case studies show that the quality of images results in considerable noise, which reduces the performance of the first approach. On the other hand, using the projected feature position is much less sensitive to the noise and estimates the distance and velocity with relatively high accuracy. This approach also can be used to predict the future projected feature position, which can drastically decrease the computational workload, as an important criterion for real-time applications.

Keywords: altitude estimation, drone, image processing, trajectory planning

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Authors: Jacqueline Kunzelman, Val Anderson, Robert Johnson, Nicholas Anderson, Rebecca Bates

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In an effort to protect honeybees from colony collapse disorder, beekeepers are filing for government permits to use natural lands as summer pasture for honeybees under the multiple-use management regime in the United States. Utilizing natural landscapes in high mountain ranges may help strengthen honeybee colonies, as this natural setting is generally void of chemical pollutants and pesticides that are found in agricultural and urban settings. However, the introduction of a competitive species could greatly impact the native species occupying these natural landscapes. While honeybees and butterflies have different life histories, behavior, and foraging strategies, they compete for the same nectar resources. Few, if any, studies have focused on the potential population effects of commercial honeybees on native butterfly abundance and diversity. This study attempts to observe this impact using a paired before-after control-impact (BACI) design. Over the course of two years, malaise trap samples were collected every week during the months of the flowering season in two similar areas separated by 11 kilometers. Each area contained nine malaise trap sites for replication. In the first year, samples were taken to analyze and establish trends within the pollinating communities. In the second year, honeybees were introduced to only one of the two areas, and a change in trends between the two areas was assessed. Contrary to the original hypothesis, the resulting observation was an overall significant increase in the mean butterfly abundance in the impact areas after honeybees were introduced, while control areas remained relatively stable. This overall increase in abundance over the season can be attributed to an increase in butterflies during the first and second periods of the data collection when populations were near their peak. Several potential theories are 1) Honeybees are deterring a natural predator/competitor of butterflies that previously limited population growth. 2) Honeybees are consuming resources regularly used by butterflies, which may extend the foraging time and consequent capture rates of butterflies. 3) Environmental factors such as number of rainy days were inconsistent between control and impact areas, biasing capture rates. This ongoing research will help determine the suitability of high mountain ranges for the summer pasturing of honeybees and the population impacts on many different pollinators.

Keywords: butterfly, competition, honeybee, pollinator

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Authors: Jesse Rafeiro

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This paper discusses worldbuilding as a pedagogical approach to the first-year architectural design studio. The studio ran for three consecutive terms between 2016-2018. Taking its departure from the fifty-five city narratives in Italo Calvino’s Invisible Cities, students collectively designed in a “nowhere” space where intersecting and diverging narratives could be played out. Along with Calvino, students navigated between three main exercises and their imposed limits to develop architectural insight at three scales simulating the considerations of architectural practice: detail, building, and city. The first exercise asked each student to design and model a ruin based on randomly assigned incongruent fragments. Each student was given one plan fragment and two section fragments from different Renaissance Treatises. The students were asked to translate these in alternating axonometric projection and model-making explorations. Although the fragments themselves were imposed, students were free to interpret how the drawings fit together by imagining new details and atypical placements. An undulating terrain model was introduced in the second exercise to ground the worldbuilding exercises. Here, students were required to negotiate with one another to design a city of ruins. Free to place their models anywhere on the site, the students were restricted by the negotiation of territories marked by other students and the requirement to provide thresholds, open spaces, and corridors. The third exercise introduced new life into the ruined city through a series of design interventions. Each student was assigned an atypical building program suggesting a place for an activity, human or nonhuman. The atypical nature of the programs challenged the triviality of functional planning through explorations in spatial narratives free from preconceived assumptions. By contesting, playing out, or dreaming responses to realities taught in other coursework, this third exercise actualized learnings that are too often self-contained in the silos of differing course agendas. As such, the studio fostered an initial worldbuilding space within which to sharpen sensibility and criticality for subsequent years of education.

Keywords: architectural pedagogy, critical pedagogy, Italo Calvino, worldbuilding

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Authors: Zane Bulderberga

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Spatial dimension in development planning is becoming more topical in 21st century as a result of changes in population structure. Sustainable spatial development focuses on identifying and using territorial advantages to foster the harmonized development of the entire country, reducing negative effects of population concentration, increasing availability and mobility. EU and national development planning documents state polycentrism as main tool for balance spatial development, including investment concentration in growth centres. If mutual cooperation of growth centres as well as urban-rural cooperation is not fostered, then territorial differences can deepen and create unbalanced development. The aim of research: to evaluate the urban-rural interaction, elaborating spatial development scenarios in framework of Latvian regional policy. To perform the research monographic, comparison, abstract-logical method, synthesis and analysis will be used when studying the theoretical aspects of research aiming at collecting the ideas of scientists from different countries, concepts, regulations as well as to create meaningful scientific discussion. Hierarchy analysis process (AHP) will be used to state further scenarios of spatial development in Latvia. Experts from various institutions recognized urban-rural interaction and co-operation as an essential tool for the development. The most important factors for balanced spatial development in Latvia are availability of public transportation and improvement of service availability. Evaluating the three alternative scenarios, it was concluded that the urban-rural partnership will ensure a balanced development in Latvian regions.

Keywords: rural-urban interaction, rural-urban cooperation, spatial development, AHP

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Authors: Ahmed Abdulfatah Yusuf, Collins Oduor Ondiek

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The automation of farming activities can have a transformational impact on the agricultural sector, especially from the emerging new technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT). The system uses water level sensors and soil moisture sensors that measure the content of water in the soil as the values generated from the sensors enable the system to use an appropriate quantity of water, which avoids over or under irrigation. Due to the increase in the world’s population, there is a need to increase food production. With this demand in place, it is difficult to increase crop yield using the traditional manual approaches that lead to the wastage of water, thus affecting crop production. Food insecurity has become a scourge greatly affecting the developing countries and agriculture is an essential part of human life and tends to be the mainstay of the economy in most developing nations. Thus, without the provision of adequate food supplies, the population of those living in poverty is likely to multiply. The project’s main objective is to design and develop an IoT (Internet of Things) microcontroller-based Smart Irrigation System. In addition, the specific research objectives are to find out the challenges with traditional irrigation approaches and to determine the benefits of IoT-based smart irrigation systems. Furthermore, the system includes Arduino, a website and a database that works simultaneously in collecting and storing the data. The system is designed to pave the way in attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 1), which aims to end extreme poverty in all forms by 2030. The research design aimed at this project is a descriptive research design. Data was gathered through online questionnaires that used both quantitative and qualitative in order to triangulate the data. Out of the 32 questionnaires sent, there were 32 responses leading to a 100% response rate. In terms of sampling, the target group of this project is urban farmers, which account for about 25% of the population of Nairobi. From the findings of the research carried out, it is evident that there is a need to move away from manual irrigation approaches due to the high wastage of water to the use of smart irrigation systems that propose a better way of conserving water while maintaining the quality and moisture of the soil. The research also found out that urban farmers are willing to adopt this system to better their farming practices. However, this system can be improved in the future by incorporating it with other features and deploying it to a larger geographical area.

Keywords: crop production, food security, smart irrigation system, sustainable development goal

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Authors: Uliana N. Tumanova, Sergey M. Voevodin, Veronica A. Sinitsyna, Alexandr I. Shchegolev

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An important part of forensic and autopsy research in perinatology is the answer to the question of life and stillbirth. Postmortem magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an objective non-invasive research method that allows to store data for a long time and not to exhume the body to clarify the diagnosis. The purpose of the research is to study the possibilities of a postmortem MRI to determine the stillbirth and death of a newborn who had spontaneous breathing and died on the first day after birth. MRI and morphological data of a study of 23 stillborn bodies, prenatally dead at a gestational age of 22-39 weeks (Group I) and the bodies of 16 newborns who died from 2 to 24 hours after birth (Group II) were compared. Before the autopsy, postmortem MRI was performed on the Siemens Magnetom Verio 3T device in the supine position of the body. The control group for MRI studies consisted of 7 live newborns without lung disease (Group III). On T2WI in the sagittal projection was measured MR-signal intensity (SI) in the lung tissue (L) and shoulder muscle (M). During the autopsy, a pulmonary swimming test was evaluated, and macro- and microscopic studies were performed. According to the postmortem MRI, the highest values of mean SI of the lung (430 ± 27.99) and of the muscle (405.5 ± 38.62) on T2WI were detected in group I and exceeded the corresponding value of group II by 2.7 times. The lowest values were found in the control group - 77.9 ± 12.34 and 119.7 ± 6.3, respectively. In the group II, the lung SI was 1.6 times higher than the muscle SI, whereas in the group I and in the control group, the muscle SI was 2.1 times and 1.8 times larger than the lung. On the basis of clinical and morphological data, we calculated the formula for determining the breathing index (BI) during postmortem MRI: BI = SIL x SIM / 100. The mean value of BI in the group I (1801.14 ± 241.6) (values ranged from 756 to 3744) significantly higher than the corresponding average value of BI in the group II (455.89 ± 137.32, p < 0.05) (305-638.4). In the control group, the mean BI value was 91.75 ± 13.3 (values ranged from 53 to 154). The BI with the results of pulmonary swimming tests and microscopic examination of the lungs were compared. The boundary value of BI for the differential diagnosis of stillborn and newborn death was 700. Using the postmortem MRI allows to differentiate the stillborn with the death of the breathing newborn.

Keywords: lung, newborn, postmortem MRI, stillborn

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Authors: Nazih Ramadan, Manal Mohy-Eldine, Amani Hanoon, Alaa Shehab

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Background and Aims: The study of fingerprints is widely used in providing a clue regarding identity. Age and gender identification from fingerprints is an important step in forensic anthropology in order to minimize the list of suspects search. The aim of this study was to determine finger ridge density and patterns among Egyptians, and to estimate age and gender using ridge densities. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted on 177 randomly-selected healthy Egyptian subjects (90 males and 87 females). They were divided into three age groups; Group (a): from 6-< 12 years, group (b) from 12-< 18 years and group (c) ≥ 18 years. Bilateral digital prints, from every subject, were obtained by the inking procedure. Ridge count per 25 mm² was determined together with assessment of ridge pattern type. Statistical analysis was done with references to different age and sex groups. Results: There was a statistical significant difference in ridge density between the different age groups; where younger ages had significantly higher ridge density than older ages. Females proved to have significantly higher ridge density than males. Also, there was a statistically significant negative correlation between age and ridge density. Ulnar loops were the most frequent pattern among Egyptians then whorls then arches then radial loops. Finally, different regression models were constructed to estimate age and gender from fingerprints ridge density. Conclusion: fingerprint ridge density can be used to identify both age and sex of subjects. Further studies are recommended on different populations, larger samples or using different methods of fingerprint recording and finger ridge counting.

Keywords: age, sex identification, Egyptian population, fingerprints, ridge density

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Authors: Eirini Petratou, Pezirkianidis Christos, Anastassios Stalikas

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Nostalgia is characterized as a mental state of human’s emotional longing for the past that activates both positive and negative emotions. The bittersweet emotions that are activated by nostalgia aid psychological functions to humans and are depended on the type of stimuli that evoke nostalgia but also on the nostalgia activation context. In general, despite that nostalgia can be activated and experienced by all people; however, it differs both in terms of nostalgia experience but also nostalgia frequency. As a matter of fact, nostalgia experience along with nostalgia frequency differs according to the level of the nostalgia proneness. People with high nostalgia proneness tend to experience nostalgia more intensely and frequently than people with low nostalgia proneness. Nostalgia proneness is considered as a basic individual difference that affects the experience of nostalgia, and it can be measured by the Southampton Nostalgia Scale (SNS); a psychometric instrument that measures human’s nostalgia proneness consisting of seven questions that assess a person’s attitude towards nostalgia, the degree of experience or tendency to nostalgic feelings and the nostalgia frequency. In the current study, we translated, validated and calibrated the SNS in Greek population (N = 267). For the calibration process, we used several scales relevant to positive dimensions, such as life satisfaction, positive and negative emotions, time perspective and wellbeing. A confirmatory factor analysis revealed the factors that provide a good Southampton Nostalgia Proneness model fit for young adult Greek population.

Keywords: nostalgia proneness, nostalgia, psychometric instruments, psychometric properties

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Authors: Mompi Sharma, Labananda Choudhury, Anjana M. Saikia

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Background: The period life table is entirely based on the assumption that the mortality patterns of the population existing in the given period will persist throughout their lives. However, it has been observed that the mortality rate continues to decline. As such, if the rates of change of probabilities of death are considered in a life table then we get a dynamic life table. Although, mortality has been declining in all parts of India, one may be interested to know whether these declines had appeared more in an urban area of underdeveloped regions like North-Eastern India. So, attempt has been made to know the mortality pattern and the life expectancy under dynamic scenario in Guwahati, the biggest city of North Eastern India. Further, if the probabilities of death changes then there is a possibility that its different constituent probabilities will also change. Since cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Guwahati. Therefore, an attempt has also been made to formulate dynamic cause specific death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD. Objectives: To construct dynamic life table for Guwahati for the year 2011 based on the rates of change of probabilities of death over the previous 10 and 25 years (i.e.,2001 and 1986) and to compute corresponding dynamic cause specific death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD. Methodology and Data: The study uses the method proposed by Denton and Spencer (2011) to construct dynamic life table for Guwahati. So, the data from the Office of the Birth and Death, Guwahati Municipal Corporation for the years 1986, 2001 and 2011 are taken. The population based data are taken from 2001 and 2011 census (India). However, the population data for 1986 has been estimated. Also, the cause of death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD are computed for the aforementioned years and then extended to dynamic set up for the year 2011 by considering the rates of change of those probabilities over the previous 10 and 25 years. Findings: The dynamic life expectancy at birth (LEB) for Guwahati is found to be higher than the corresponding values in the period table by 3.28 (5.65) years for males and 8.30 (6.37) years for females during the period of 10 (25) years. The life expectancies under dynamic consideration in all the other age groups are also seen higher than the usual life expectancies, which may be possible due to gradual decline in probabilities of death since 1986-2011. Further, a continuous decline has also been observed in death ratio due to CVD along with cause specific probabilities of death for both sexes. As a consequence, dynamic cause of death probability due to CVD is found to be less in comparison to usual procedure. Conclusion: Since incorporation of changing mortality rates in period life table for Guwahati resulted in higher life expectancies and lower probabilities of death due to CVD, this would possibly bring out the real situation of deaths prevailing in the city.

Keywords: cause specific death ratio, cause specific probabilities of death, dynamic, life expectancy

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Authors: Mohammed-Hareef Asunramu, Sana Hashemi, Raja Ohri, Luc Worthington, Nadia Zaman, Junkai Zhu

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Background: The 2012 Health and Social Care Act committed to a ‘parity of esteem between mental and physical health services. Although this investment, aimed to both increase the quality of services and ensure the retention of mental health staff, questions remained regarding its ability to prevent mental health problems. One possible solution is a focus on the social determinants of health which have been shown to impact mental health. Aim: To examine the relationship between the index of multiple deprivations (IMD) and the prevalence of common mental health disorders (CMD) for CCGs in NHS England between 2019 and 2020. Design and setting: Cross-sectional analysis of 189 CCGs in NHS England. Methods: A multivariate linear regression model was utilized with CMD as outcome variable and IMD, age and ethnicity as explanatory variables. Datasets were obtained from Public Health England and the latest UK Census. Results: CCG IMD was found to have a significantly positive relationship with CMD. For every 1-point increase in IMD, CMD increases by 0.25%. Ethnicity had a significantly positive relationship with CMD. For every 1% increase in the population that identifies as BME, there is a 0.03% increase in CMD. Age had a significantly negative relationship with CMD. For every 1% increase in the population aged 60+, there is a 0.11% decrease in CMD. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that addressing mental health issues may require a multi-pronged approach. Beyond budget increases, it is essential to prioritize health equity, with careful considerations towards ethnic minorities and different age brackets.

Keywords: deprivation, health inequality, mental health, social determinants

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Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, Yun-Ju Lai

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Background: Animal studies have shown that alcohol exposure may cause immunosuppression and increase the susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB) infection. However, the temporality of alcohol consumption with subsequent TB development remains unclear. This nationwide population-based cohort study aimed to investigate the impact of alcohol exposure on TB development in Taiwanese adults. Methods: We included 46 196 adult participants from three rounds (2001, 2005, 2009) of the Taiwan National Health Interview Survey. Alcohol consumption was classified into heavy, regular, social, or never alcohol use. Heavy alcohol consumption was defined as intoxication at least once/week. Alcohol consumption and other covariates were collected by in-person interviews at baseline. Incident cases of active TB were identified from the National Health Insurance database. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the association between alcohol consumption and active TB, with adjustment for age, sex, smoking, socioeconomic status, and other covariates. Results: A total of 279 new cases of active TB occurred during the study follow-up period. Heavy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 5.21; 95% confident interval [CI], 2.41-11.26) and regular alcohol use (AOR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.26-2.38) were associated with higher risks of incident TB after adjusting for the subject demographics and comorbidities. Moreover, a strong dose-response effect was observed between increasing alcohol consumption and incident TB (AOR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.59-3.21; P <.001). Conclusion: Heavy and regular alcohol consumption were associated with higher risks of active TB. Future TB control programs should consider strategies to lower the overall level of alcohol consumption to reduce the TB disease burden.

Keywords: alcohol consumption, tuberculosis, risk factor, cohort study

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Authors: Martina Grdiša, Filip Varga, Nina Jeran, Ante Turudić, Zlatko Šatović

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Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium (Trevir.) Sch. Bip.) is a plant species that occurs naturally in the eastern Mediterranean. It is of immense economic importance as it synthesizes and accumulates the phytochemical compound pyrethrin. Pyrethrin consists of several monoterpene esters (pyrethrin I and II, cinerin I and II and jasmolin I and II), which have insecticidal and repellent activity through their synergistic action. In this study, 15 natural Dalmatian pyrethrum populations were sampled along their natural range in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro to characterize and compare their pyrethrin profiles and to define the bioclimatic factors associated with the accumulation of each pyrethrin compound. Pyrethrins were extracted from the dried flower heads of Dalmatian pyrethrum using ultrasound-assisted extraction and the amount of each compound was quantified using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to DAD-UV /VIS. The biochemical data were subjected to analysis of variance, correlation analysis and multivariate analysis. Quantitative variability within and among populations was found, with population P15 Vranjske Njive, Podgorica having the significantly highest pyrethrin I content (66.47% of total pyrethrin content), while the highest levels of total pyrethrin were found in P14 Budva (1.27% of dry flower weight; DW), followed by P08 Korčula (1.15% DW). Based on the environmental conditions at the sampling sites of the populations, five bioclimatic groups were distinguished, referred to as A, B, C, D, and E, each with rare chemical profile. The first group (A) consisted of the northern Adriatic population P01 Vrbnik, Krk and the population P06 Sevid - the coastal population of the central Adriatic, and generally differed significantly from the other bioclimatic groups by higher average jasmolin II values (2.13% of total pyrethrin). The second group (B) consisted of two central Adriatic island populations (P02 Telašćica, Dugi otok and P03 Žman, Dugi otok), while the remaining central Adriatic island populations were grouped in bioclimatic group C, which was characterized by the significantly highest average pyrethrin II (48.52% of total pyrethrin) and cinerin II (5.31% DW) content. The South Adriatic inland populations P10 Srđ and P11 Trebinje (Bosnia and Herzegovina), and the populations from Montenegro (P12 Grahovo, P13 Lovćen, P14 Budva and P15 Vranjske Njive, Podgorica) formed bioclimatic group E. This bioclimatic group was characterized by the highest average values for pyrethrin I (53.07 % of total pyrethrin), total pyrethrin content (1.06 % DW) and the ratio of pyrethrin I and II (1.85). Slightly lower values (although not significant) for the latter traits were detected in bioclimatic group D (southern Adriatic island populations P07 Vis, P08 Korčula and P09 Mljet). A weak but significant correlation was found between the levels of some pyrethrin compounds and bioclimatic variables (e.g., BIO03 Isothermality and BIO04 Temperature Seasonality), which explains part of the variability observed in the populations studied. This suggests the interconnection between bioclimatic variables and biochemical profiles either through the selection of adapted genotypes or through the ability of species to alter the expression of biochemical traits in response to environmental changes.

Keywords: biopesticides, biochemical variability, pyrethrin, Tanacetum cinerariifolium

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Authors: Marju Ben Sayed, Shigeko Haruyama

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Among all kinds of natural disaster, the flood is a common feature in rapidly urbanizing Dhaka city. In this research, assessment of flood risk of Dhaka metropolitan area has been investigated by using an integrated approach of GIS, remote sensing and socio-economic data. The purpose of the study is to measure the flooding risk concerning with the flood protection embankment in big flooding events (1988, 1998 and 2004) and urbanization of Dhaka metropolitan zone. In this research, we considered the Dhaka city into two parts; East Dhaka (outside the flood protection embankment) and West Dhaka (inside the flood protection embankment). Using statistical data, we explored the socio-economic status of the study area population by comparing the density of population, land price and income level. We have drawn the cross section profile of the flood protection embankment into three different points for realizing the flooding risk in the study area, especially in the big flooding year (1988, 1998 and 2004). According to the physical condition of the study area, the land use/land cover map has been classified into five classes. Comparing with each land cover unit, historical weather station data and the socio-economic data, the flooding risk has been evaluated. Moreover, we compared between DEM data and each land cover units to find out the relationship with flood. It is expected that, this study could contribute to effective flood forecasting, relief and emergency management for a future flood event in Dhaka city.

Keywords: land use, land cover change, socio-economic, Dhaka city, GIS, flood

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Authors: Sharmin Sultana, Palash Chandra Banik, Shirin Jahan Mumu, Liaquat Ali

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Santals are one of the oldest indigenous groups of South Asia who, according to anthropological evidence, are thought to be the origins of the Bengali race. The aim of the study was to explore, according to our best knowledge for the first time, the prevalence and determinants of hypertension in this relatively isolated and marginalized indigenous group who still live mostly in a traditional style. Under a cross-sectional analytical design, the study was conducted on the adult (age≥18 years) Santals (n=389, M/F 184/205, age in years, 38±15.3) of a village located in a remote rural area of northern Bangladesh. Subjects were selected by purposive sampling, and data were collected by interviewer-administered pretested questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured by following the WHO guideline of JNC-7 has been used to classify the blood pressure. The prevalence of hypertension was 4.9% among the respondents. Females had a much higher prevalence (5.4%) of hypertension compared to males (4.3%). Among the risk indicators of hypertension, more than half (50.9%) of the study population took extra salt in their meals, whereas 10.5% of respondents used extra salt occasionally, which is an important risk factor for high blood pressure. High waist circumference was found in 19% of the study subjects in terms of central obesity. Older age group (p=0.003, OR=1.1, 95%CI-1.02-1.10), respondents who completed more than primary school (p=0.038, OR=7.1, CI-1.11, 44.6), overweight and obesity (p=0.004, OR=17.1, CI-2.5, 118.1), were the major determinant for hypertension as found from the binary logistic model. None of the respondents received any medication, neither they visit any doctor ever for their hypertension control. The prevalence of hypertension was found to be low but not ignorable. Pre-hypertension in the case of systolic blood pressure needs attention among Santal indigenous population.

Keywords: hypertension, indigenous group, Santals, Bangladesh

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Authors: Holly D. Shan, Monique L. Bautista Neughebauer

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Sunscreen usage is emphasized in public health strategy as it reduces the risk of sunburns and skin cancers. This study aims to explore factors that influence sun protective behavior and outcomes. Data was received from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2020. Adults were asked how often they wore sunscreen when outside on a sunny day. Consistent use (“always”) of sunscreen, the incidence of sunburn within a year, and ever having a diagnosis of skin melanoma were compared by gender, race, and the diagnosis of anxiety, depression, and dementia. Individuals identifying as a mixed race were excluded. Statistical analysis was adjusted for large-scale surveys using STATA VSN 7.0, and a two-sided p<0.05 was considered significant. Of the 37,352 participants (53.18% females, 75.01% white, 10.49% black, 0.76% Indian Americans,5.60% Asian), 13.11% had a diagnosis of anxiety, 14.78% depression, and 0.84% dementia. Females wore sunscreen more often than males (24.72% vs. 10.91%, p<0.001). White individuals wore sunscreen most frequently; black individuals the least (17.37% vs. 6.49%, p<0.001). White individuals had the highest rate of sunburn (25.61%, p<0.001) and a history of skin melanoma (3.38%, p<0.001). Participants with anxiety, depression, and dementia all had statistically significantly decreased sunscreen use and increased frequency of sunburn compared to the general population. Only those with dementia had an increased incidence of skin melanoma (2.85% vs. 1.22%, p=0.009). Dermatologists and public health professionals should consider gender, race, and psychiatric comorbidities when counseling patients on sun protection.

Keywords: sun protective behavior, psychiatric disorder, melanoma, sunburn

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Authors: Dalia Antiniene, Rosita Lekaviciene

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The qualitative methodology based study is designed to reveal a connection between emotional intelligence (EI) and locus of control (LC) within the population of Lithuanian youth. In the context of emotional problems, the locus of control reflects how one estimates the causes of his/her emotions: internals (internal locus of control) associate their emotions with their manner of thinking, whereas externals (external locus of control) consider emotions to be evoked by external circumstances. On the other hand, there is little empirical data about this connection, and the results in disposition are often contradictory. In the conducted study 1430 young people, aged 17 to 27, from various regions of Lithuania were surveyed. The subjects were selected by quota sampling, maintaining natural proportions of the general Lithuanian youth population. To assess emotional intelligence the EI-DARL test (i.e. self-report questionnaire consisting of 75 items) was implemented. The emotional intelligence test, created applying exploratory factor analysis, reveals four main dimensions of EI: understanding of one’s own emotions, regulation of one’s own emotions, understanding other’s emotions, and regulation of other’s emotions (subscale reliability coefficients fluctuate between 0,84 and 0,91). An original 16-item internality/externality scale was used to examine the locus of control (internal consistency of the Externality subscale - 0,75; Internality subscale - 0,65). The study has determined that the youth understands and regulates other people’s emotions better than their own. Using the K-mean cluster analysis method, it was established that there are three groups of subjects according to their EI level – people with low, medium and high EI. After comparing means of subjects’ favorability of statements on the Internality/Externality scale, a predominance of internal locus of control in the young population was established. The multiple regression models has shown that a rather strong statistically significant correlation exists between total EI, EI subscales and LC. People who tend to attribute responsibility for the outcome of their actions to their own abilities and efforts have higher EI and, conversely, the tendency to attribute responsibility to external forces is related more with lower EI. While pursuing their goals, young people with high internality have a predisposition to analyze perceived emotions and, therefore, gain emotional experience: they learn to control their natural reactions and to act adequately in a situation at hand. Thus the study unfolds, that a person’s locus of control and emotional intelligence are related phenomena and allows us to draw a conclusion, that a person’s internality/externality is a reliable predictor of total EI and its components.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, externality, internality, locus of control

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Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Danial Hashmi, Richard Armstrong, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano, Javed Hassan

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This paper presents the results of a semi-distributed modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) for estimating snow and ice melt contributions to discharge from the glacierized Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The model uses daily temperature data, daily precipitation data, and positive degree day factors for snow and ice melt. The model is calibrated for the period 1995-2001 and validated for 2002-2013, and demonstrates close agreements between observed and simulated discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting model projected temperature, and precipitation data from 2016-2050 are used for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and bias correction was done using a statistical approach for future discharge estimation. No drastic changes in future discharge are predicted for the emissions scenarios. The aggregate snow-ice melt contribution is 39% of total discharge in the period 1993-2013. Snow-ice melt contribution ranges from 35% to 63% during the high flow period (May to October), which constitutes 89% of annual discharge; in the low flow period (November to April) it ranges from 0.02% to 17%, which constitutes 11 % of the annual discharge. The snow-ice melt contribution to total discharge will increase gradually in the future and reach up to 45% in 2041-2050. From a sensitivity analysis, it is found that the combination of a 2°C temperature rise and 20% increase in precipitation shows a 10% increase in discharge. The study allows us to evaluate the impact of climate change in such basins and is also useful for the future prediction of discharge to define hydropower potential, inform other water resource management in the area, to understand future changes in snow-ice melt contribution to discharge, and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability.

Keywords: climate variability, future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management

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