Search results for: risk management failure
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15697

Search results for: risk management failure

6157 The Impact of Artesunate-Amodiaquine on Schistosoma mansoni Infection among Children Infected by Plasmodium in Rural Area of Lemfu, Kongo Central, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Authors: Mbanzulu Kennedy, Zanga Josue, Wumba Roger

Abstract:

Malaria and schistosomiasis remain life-threatening public health problems in sub-Saharan Africa. The infection pattern related to age indicates that preschool and school-age children are at the highest risk of malaria and schistosomiasis. Both parasitic infections, separately or combined, may have negative impacts on the haemoglobin concentration levels. The existing data revealed that artemisinin derivatives commonly used to cure malaria present also in antischistosomal activities. The current study investigated the impact of Artesunate-Amodiaquine (AS-AQ) on schistosomiasis when administered to treat malaria in rural area of Lemfu, DRC. A prospective longitudinal study including 171 coinfected children screened for anaemia, Schistosoma mansoni, and Plasmodium falciparum infections. The egg reduction rate and haemoglobin concentration were assessed four weeks after the treatment with AS-AQ, of all coinfected children of this series. One hundred and twenty-five (74.4%) out of 168 coinfected children treated and present during the assessment were found stool negative for S. mansoni eggs. Out of 43 (25.6%) children who remained positives, 37 (22%) showed a partial reduction of eggs amount, and no reduction was noted in 3.6% of coinfected. The mean of haemoglobin concentration and the prevalence of anaemia were, respectively, 10.74±1.5g/dl , 11.2±1.3g/dl, and 64.8%, 51.8%, respectively, before and after treatment, p<0.001. The AS-AQ commonly used against Plasmodium allowed curing S. mansoni in coinfected children and increasing the Hb level. For the future, the randomized and multicentric clinical trials are needed for a better understanding of the effectiveness of AS-AQ against Schistosoma spp. The trial registration number was 3487183.

Keywords: paludisme, schistosomiase, as-aq, enfants lemfu

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6156 Energy Transition and Investor-State Disputes: Scientific Knowledge as a Solution to the Burden for Climate Policy-Making

Authors: Marina E. Konstantinidi

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It is now well-established that the fight against climate change and its consequences, which are a threat to mankind and to life on the planet Earth, requires that global temperature rise be kept under 1,5°C. It is also well-established that this requires humanity to put an end to the use of fossil fuels in the next decades, at the latest. However, investors in the fossil energy sector have brought or threatened to bring investment arbitration claims against States which put an end to their activity for the purpose of reaching their climate change policies’ objectives. Examples of such claims are provided by the cases of WMH v. Canada, Lone Pine v. Canada, Uniper v. Netherlands and RWE v. Netherlands. Irrespective of the outcome of the arbitration proceedings, the risk of being ordered to pay very substantial damages may have a ‘chilling effect’ on States, meaning that they may hesitate to implement the energy transition measures needed to fight climate change and its consequences. Although mitigation action is a relatively recent phenomenon, knowledge about the negative impact of fossil fuels has existed for a long time ago. In this paper, it is argued that structured documentation of evidence of knowledge about climate change may influence the adjudication of investment treaty claims and, consequently, affect the content of energy transition regulations that will be implemented. For example, as concerns investors, evidence that change in the regulatory framework towards environmental protection could have been predicted would refute the argument concerning legitimate expectations for legislative stability. By reference to relevant case law, it attempted to explore how pre-existing knowledge about climate change can be used in the adjudication of investor-State disputes and resulting from green energy transition policies.

Keywords: climate change, energy transition, international investment law, knowledge

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6155 The Increase of Adolescent Obesity Rates after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Possible Obesity Prevention Programs for Implementation

Authors: Tatiana Pratt, Benyamin Hanasabzadeh, Panayiota Courelli

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The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the largest global public health issues of this current century. COVID-19 puts people diagnosed with obesity at higher risk of not only contracting the virus but also being hospitalized and dying, making this a vital time to implement obesity prevention programs. However, COVID-19 is predicted to rapidly increase the obesity rate in the United States due to the mandatory sedentary lifestyle the pandemic demands; this is especially harmful to adolescent-aged children because it creates lifelong unhealthy habits and behaviors. Adolescent obesity prevention programs have been rigorously implemented throughout the last century to help diminish the ever-increasing adolescent obesity rate. Since the pandemic kept adolescents inside and away from in-person school, many programs have now become ineffective due to their in-person participation. Examples of in-person participation programs include school lunch programs, OSNAP and New Moves. Therefore, online programs or remote intervention measures are now more essential. This leads to programs such as Time2bHealthy, HEALTH[e]TEEN, and SWITCH should be looked at with more vitality. Adolescents have intertwined their lives with technology and screen usage. Therefore, online and remote prevention programs will continue to play a large role in the post-pandemic era. This literature review will be reviewing past and current adolescent obesity prevention programs and their effectiveness with the new remote, sedentary lifestyle adolescents. Furthermore, it will suggest new ways to more productively decrease adolescent obesity rates by analyzing the harmful factors that COVID-19 introduced into their lifestyles.

Keywords: adolescent, obesity, overweight, COVID-19, preventative care, public health, public policy, obesity prevention programs, online programs

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6154 Landfill Site Selection Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis A Case Study for Gulshan-e-Iqbal Town, Karachi

Authors: Javeria Arain, Saad Malik

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The management of solid waste is a crucial and essential aspect of urban environmental management especially in a city with an ever increasing population such as Karachi. The total amount of municipal solid waste generated from Gulshan e Iqbal town on average is 444.48 tons per day and landfill sites are a widely accepted solution for final disposal of this waste. However, an improperly selected site can have immense environmental, economical and ecological impacts. To select an appropriate landfill site a number of factors should be kept into consideration to minimize the potential hazards of solid waste. The purpose of this research is to analyse the study area for the construction of an appropriate landfill site for disposal of municipal solid waste generated from Gulshan e-Iqbal Town by using geospatial techniques considering hydrological, geological, social and geomorphological factors. This was achieved using analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy analysis as a decision support tool with integration of geographic information sciences techniques. Eight most critical parameters, relevant to the study area, were selected. After generation of thematic layers for each parameter, overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS 10.0 software. The results produced by both methods were then compared with each other and the final suitability map using AHP shows that 19% of the total area is Least Suitable, 6% is Suitable but avoided, 46% is Moderately Suitable, 26% is Suitable, 2% is Most Suitable and 1% is Restricted. In comparison the output map of fuzzy set theory is not in crisp logic rather it provides an output map with a range of 0-1, where 0 indicates least suitable and 1 indicates most suitable site. Considering the results it is deduced that the northern part of the city is appropriate for constructing the landfill site though a final decision for an optimal site could be made after field survey and considering economical and political factors.

Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy set theory, Geographic Information Sciences (GIS), Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

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6153 Suicide, Help-Seeking and LGBT Youth: A Mixed Methods Study

Authors: Elizabeth McDermott, Elizabeth Hughes, Victoria Rawlings

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Globally, suicide is the second leading cause of death among 15–29 year-olds. Young people who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) have elevated rates of suicide and self-harm. Despite the increased risk, there is a paucity of research on LGBT help-seeking and suicidality. This is the first national study to investigate LGBT youth help-seeking for suicidal feelings and self-harm. We report on a UK sequential exploratory mixed method study that employed face-to-face and online methods in two stages. Stage one involved 29 online (n=15) and face-to-face (n=14) semi-structured interviews with LGBT youth aged under 25 years old. Stage two utilized an online LGBT youth questionnaire employing a community-based sampling strategy (n=789). We found across the sample that LGBT youth who self-harmed or felt suicidal were reluctant to seek help. Results indicated that participants were normalizing their emotional distress and only asked for help when they reached crisis point and were no longer coping. Those who self-harmed (p<0.001, OR=2.82), had attempted or planned suicide (p<0.05, OR=1.48), or had experience of abuse related to their sexuality or gender (p<0.01, OR=1.80), were most likely to seek help. There were a number of interconnecting reasons that contributed to participants’ problems accessing help. The most prominent of these were: negotiating norms in relation to sexuality, gender, mental health and age; being unable to talk about emotions, and coping and self-reliance. It is crucial that policies and practices that aim to prevent LGBT youth suicide recognize that norms and normalizing processes connected to sexual orientation and gender identity are additional difficulties that LGBT youth have accessing mental health support.

Keywords: help-seeking, LGBT, suicide, youth

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6152 Determining Factors for Successful Blended Learning in Higher Education: A Qualitative Study

Authors: Pia Wetzl

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The learning process of students can be optimized by combining online teaching with face-to-face sessions. So-called blended learning offers extensive flexibility as well as contact opportunities with fellow students and teachers. Furthermore, learning can be individualized and self-regulated. The aim of this article is to investigate which factors are necessary for blended learning to be successful. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with students (N = 60) and lecturers (N = 21) from different disciplines at two German universities. The questions focused on the perception of online, face-to-face and blended learning courses. In addition, questions focused on possible optimization potential and obstacles to practical implementation. The results show that on-site presence is very important for blended learning to be successful. If students do not get to know each other on-site, there is a risk of loneliness during the self-learning phases. This has a negative impact on motivation. From the perspective of the lecturers, the willingness of the students to participate in the sessions on-site is low. Especially when there is no obligation to attend, group work is difficult to implement because the number of students attending is too low. Lecturers would like to see more opportunities from the university and its administration to enforce attendance. In their view, this is the only way to ensure the success of blended learning. In addition, they see the conception of blended learning courses as requiring a great deal of time, which they are not always willing to invest. More incentives are necessary to keep the lecturers motivated to develop engaging teaching material. The study identifies factors that can help teachers conceptualize blended learning. It also provides specific implementation advice and identifies potential impacts. This catalogue has great value for the future-oriented development of courses at universities. Future studies could test its practical use.

Keywords: blended learning, higher education, teachers, student learning, qualitative research

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6151 Evaluation of Organizational Culture and Its Effects on Innovation in the IT Sector: A Case Study from UAE

Authors: Amir M. Shikhli, Refaat H. Abdel-Razek, Salaheddine Bendak

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Innovation is considered to be one of the key factors that influence long-term success of any company. The problem of many organizations in developing countries is trying to implement innovation without a strong basis within the organizational culture to support it. The objective of this study is to assess the effects of organizational culture on innovation in one of the biggest information technology organizations in UAE, Injazat Data System. First, an Organizational Culture Assessment Instrument (OCAI) was used as a survey and Competing Value Framework as a model to analyze the existing culture within the organization and determine its characteristics. Following that, a modified version of the Community Innovation Survey (CIS) was used to determine innovation types introduced by the organization. Then multiple linear regression analysis was used to find out the effects of existing organizational culture on innovation. Results show that existing organizational culture is composed of a combination of Hierarchy (29.4%), Clan (25.8%), Market (24.9%) and Adhocracy (19.9%). Results of the second survey show that the organization focuses on organizational innovation (26.8%) followed by market and product innovations (25.6%) and finally process innovation (22.0%). Regression analysis results reveal that for each innovation type there is a recommended combination of the four culture types. For product innovation, the combination is 47.4% Clan, 17.9% Adhocracy, 1.0% Market and 33.3% Hierarchy; for process innovation it is 19.7% Clan, 45.2% Adhocracy, 32.0% Market and 3.1% Hierarchy; for organizational innovation the combination is 5.4% Clan, 32.7% Adhocracy, 6.0% Market and 55.9% Hierarchy; and for market innovation it is 25.5% Clan, 42.6% Adhocracy, 32.6% Market and 8.4% Hierarchy. Based on these recommended combinations, this study suggests two ways to enhance the innovation culture in the organization. First, if the management decides on the innovation type to be enhanced, a comparison between the existing culture and the recommended combination of selected innovation types will lead to difference in percentages of each culture type. Then further analysis should show how to modify the existing culture to match the recommended combination. Second, if the innovation type is not selected, but the management wants to enhance innovation culture in the organization, the difference in percentages of each culture type will lead to finding out the recommended combination of culture types that gives the narrowest gap between existing culture and recommended combination.

Keywords: developing countries, organizational culture, innovation types, product innovation, process innovation, organizational innovation, marketing innovation

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6150 Leveraging Automated and Connected Vehicles with Deep Learning for Smart Transportation Network Optimization

Authors: Taha Benarbia

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The advent of automated and connected vehicles has revolutionized the transportation industry, presenting new opportunities for enhancing the efficiency, safety, and sustainability of our transportation networks. This paper explores the integration of automated and connected vehicles into a smart transportation framework, leveraging the power of deep learning techniques to optimize the overall network performance. The first aspect addressed in this paper is the deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) within the transportation system. AVs offer numerous advantages, such as reduced congestion, improved fuel efficiency, and increased safety through advanced sensing and decisionmaking capabilities. The paper delves into the technical aspects of AVs, including their perception, planning, and control systems, highlighting the role of deep learning algorithms in enabling intelligent and reliable AV operations. Furthermore, the paper investigates the potential of connected vehicles (CVs) in creating a seamless communication network between vehicles, infrastructure, and traffic management systems. By harnessing real-time data exchange, CVs enable proactive traffic management, adaptive signal control, and effective route planning. Deep learning techniques play a pivotal role in extracting meaningful insights from the vast amount of data generated by CVs, empowering transportation authorities to make informed decisions for optimizing network performance. The integration of deep learning with automated and connected vehicles paves the way for advanced transportation network optimization. Deep learning algorithms can analyze complex transportation data, including traffic patterns, demand forecasting, and dynamic congestion scenarios, to optimize routing, reduce travel times, and enhance overall system efficiency. The paper presents case studies and simulations demonstrating the effectiveness of deep learning-based approaches in achieving significant improvements in network performance metrics

Keywords: automated vehicles, connected vehicles, deep learning, smart transportation network

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6149 Influence of Peripheral Vision Restrictions on the Walking Trajectory When Texting While Walking

Authors: Macky Kato, Takeshi Sato, Mizuki Nakajima

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One major problem related to the use of smartphones is texting while simultaneously engaging in other things, resulting in serious road accidents. Apart from texting while driving being one of the most dangerous behaviors, texting while walking is also dangerous because it narrows the pedestrians’ field of vision. However, many of pedestrian text while walking very habitually. Smartphone users often overlook the potential harm associated with this behavior even while crossing roads. The successful texting while walking make them think that they are safe. The purpose of this study is to reveal of the influence of peripheral vision to the stability of walking trajectory with texting while walking. In total, 9 healthy male university students participated in the experiment. Their mean age was 21.4 years, and standard deviation was 0.7 years. They attempted to walk 10 m in three conditions. First one is the control (CTR) condition, with no phone and no restriction. The second one is the texting while walking (TWG) with no restrictions. The third one is restriction condition (PRS), with phone restricted by experimental peripheral goggles. The horizontal distances (HDS) and directions are measured as the scale of horizontal stability. The longitudinal distances (LDS) between the footprints were measured as the scale of the walking rhythm. The results showed that the HDS of the footprints from the straight line increased as the participants walked in the TWG and PRS conditions. In the PRS condition, this tendency was particularly remarkable. In addition, the LDS between the footprints decreased in the order of the CTR, TWG, and PRS conditions. The ANOVA results showed significant differences in the three conditions with respect to HDS. The differences among these conditions showed that the narrowing of the Pedestrian's vision because of smartphone use influences the walking trajectory and rhythm. It can be said that the pedestrians seem to use their peripheral vision marginally on texting while walking. Therefore, we concluded that the texting while walking narrows the peripheral vision so danger to increase the risk of the accidents.

Keywords: peripheral vision, stability, texting while walking, walking trajectory

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6148 The Impact of Infectious Disease on Densely Populated Urban Area: In Terms of COVID-19

Authors: Samira Ghasempourkazemi

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In terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, lots of mutations in the urban system, which have systemic impacts, have clearly appeared. COVID-19 not only had a direct impact on health but also caused significant losses to other departments, including the economy, education, tourism, environment and the construction industry. Therefore, the pandemic caused a disruption in the whole urban system. Particularly, today’s large urban areas are not designed in order to be compatible during a pandemic. Hence, cities are more vulnerable to infectious disease threats according to the population density, built environment and socioeconomic aspects. Considering the direct relationship between population and rate of infection, higher rates are given to those individuals located in areas with high-density populations. Population density can be a factor that seems to have a strong impact on the spread of infectious diseases. Thus, the preliminary hypothesis can be related to a densely populated areas which become hotspots for the rapid spread of the pandemic due to high levels of interaction. In addition, some other indicators can be effective in this condition, such as age range, education and socio-economy. To figure out the measure of infectious disease risk in densely populated areas in Istanbul is an objective of this study. Besides, this study intends to figure out Vulnerability Index in the case of COVID-19. In order to achieve the proper result, the considered method can be Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by involving the mentioned variables. In the end, the study represents the COVID Vulnerability of densely populated areas in a metro city and the gaps that need to be identified and plugged for the pandemic-resilience city of tomorrow.

Keywords: infectious disease, COVID-19, urban system, densely populated area

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6147 Cost Benefit Analysis of Adoption of Climate Change Adaptation Options among Rural Rice Farmers in Nepal

Authors: Niranjan Devkota , Ram Kumar Phuya, Durga Lal Shreshta

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This paper estimates cost and benefit of adoption of climate change adaptation options available to the rural rice farmers of Nepal. Adoption of adaptation strategies, intensity of use of adaptation options, identification of labor and non-labor cost and finally per unit cost and benefit analysis of climate change adaptation were made. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to source respondents for the study and used structured questionnaire techniques to collect data from 773 households from seven districts; 3 from Terai and 4 from Hilly region of Nepal. The result revealed that there are 13 major adaptation options rice farmers practice in order to protect themselves from climatic risk. Among the given adaptation options, the first three popular adaptation options practiced by rice farmers are (i) increasing use of chemical fertilizer (60.93%) (ii) use of climate smart verities (49.29%) and (iii) change in nursery date (32.08%). Adaptation cost is obvious, based on that, the first three costly adaptation options are the alternative irrigation practice which incurred average cost of US $69.95 (US$ 1 = 102.84 Nepalese Rupees) followed by a denser plantation of local seeds ($ 20.69) and using climate smart varieties ($ 18.06). 88% farmers practiced more than one adaptation strategies on the same farm with the aim of reducing the effect of extreme climatic conditions. Total cost and revenue revealed that per unit total cost ranges from $28.34 to $32.79 whereas per unit total revenue ranges $33.4 to $49.02. Surprisingly, it is observed that farmers who do not adopt any adaptation options are able to receive highest income from per unit production. As Net Present Value (NPV) is positive and Benefit Cost Ration (BCR) is greater than one for every adaptation options that indicates the available adaptation options are profitable to the rice farmers.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation options, cost benefit analysis, rural rice farmers, Nepal

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6146 The Triple Threat: Microplastic, Nanoplastic, and Macroplastic Pollution and Their Cumulative Impacts on Marine Ecosystem

Authors: Tabugbo B. Ifeyinwa, Josephat O. Ogbuagu, Okeke A. Princewill, Victor C. Eze

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The increasing amount of plastic pollution in maritime settings poses a substantial risk to the functioning of ecosystems and the preservation of biodiversity. This comprehensive analysis combines the most recent data on the environmental effects of pollution from macroplastics, microplastics, and nanoplastics within marine ecosystems. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the cumulative impacts that plastic waste accumulates on marine life by outlining the origins, processes, and ecological repercussions connected with each size category of plastic debris. Microplastics and nanoplastics have more sneaky effects that are controlled by chemicals. These effects can get through biological barriers and affect the health of cells and the whole body. Compared to macroplastics, which primarily contribute to physical harm through entanglement and ingestion by marine fauna, microplastics, and nanoplastics are associated with non-physical effects. The review underlines a vital need for research that crosses disciplinary boundaries to untangle the intricate interactions that the various sizes of plastic pollution have with marine animals, evaluate the long-term ecological repercussions, and identify effective measures for mitigating the effects of plastic pollution. Additionally, we urge governmental interventions and worldwide cooperation to solve this pervasive environmental concern. Specifically, we identify significant knowledge gaps in the detection and effect assessment of nanoplastics. To protect marine biodiversity and preserve ecosystem services, this review highlights how urgent it is to address the broad spectrum of plastic pollution.

Keywords: macroplastic pollution, marine ecosystem, microplastic pollution, nanoplastic pollution

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6145 Optimal Energy Management System for Electrical Vehicles to Further Extend the Range

Authors: M. R. Rouhi, S. Shafiei, A. Taghavipour, H. Adibi-Asl, A. Doosthoseini

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This research targets at alleviating the problem of range anxiety associated with the battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by considering mechanical and control aspects of the powertrain. In this way, all the energy consuming components and their effect on reducing the range of the BEV and battery life index are identified. On the other hand, an appropriate control strategy is designed to guarantee the performance of the BEV and the extended electric range which is evaluated by an extensive simulation procedure and a real-world driving schedule.

Keywords: battery, electric vehicles, ultra-capacitor, model predictive control

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6144 Neuroimaging Markers for Screening Former NFL Players at Risk for Developing Alzheimer's Disease / Dementia Later in Life

Authors: Vijaykumar M. Baragi, Ramtilak Gattu, Gabriela Trifan, John L. Woodard, K. Meyers, Tim S. Halstead, Eric Hipple, Ewart Mark Haacke, Randall R. Benson

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NFL players, by virtue of their exposure to repetitive head injury, are at least twice as likely to develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) and dementia as the general population. Early recognition and intervention prior to onset of clinical symptoms could potentially avert/delay the long-term consequences of these diseases. Since AD is thought to have a long preclinical incubation period, the aim of the current research was to determine whether former NFL players, referred to a depression center, showed evidence of incipient dementia in their structural imaging prior to diagnosis of dementia. Thus, to identify neuroimaging markers of AD, against which former NFL players would be compared, we conducted a comprehensive volumetric analysis using a cohort of early stage AD patients (ADNI) to produce a set of brain regions demonstrating sensitivity to early AD pathology (i.e., the “AD fingerprint”). A cohort of 46 former NFL players’ brain MRIs were then interrogated using the AD fingerprint. Brain scans were done using a T1-weighted MPRAGE sequence. The Free Surfer image analysis suite (version 6.0) was used to obtain the volumetric and cortical thickness data. A total of 55 brain regions demonstrated significant atrophy or ex vacuo dilatation bilaterally in AD patients vs. healthy controls. Of the 46 former NFL players, 19 (41%) demonstrated a greater than expected number of atrophied/dilated AD regions when compared with age-matched controls, presumably reflecting AD pathology.

Keywords: alzheimers, neuroimaging biomarkers, traumatic brain injury, free surfer, ADNI

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6143 Pathogenicity of Entomopathogenic Fungi, Beauveria bassiana Against Red Palm Weevil, (Rhynchophorus ferrugineus)

Authors: Muhammad Mamoon-Ur-Rashid, Gul Rehman

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Entomopathogenic fungi are considered effective bio-control agents for the management of a range of insect pests including red palm weevil. The research studies were conducted under laboratory and field conditions against 5th and 6th instars larvae and adults of [Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier)] at the faculty of Agriculture, Gomal University Dera Ismail Khan (KPK) Pakistan. The 5th instar larvae were used under field conditions whereas, the 6th instar larvae and newly emerged adults were used under lab conditions. Conidial suspensions were used at five different concentrations of 1×10⁴, 1×10⁵, 1×10⁶, 1×10⁷ and 1×10⁸, conidia per ml. The data were recorded on the mortality, total larval duration, weight of larvae, pre-pupal and pupal durations, percent pupal formation, pupal weight, percent adult emergence, and adult longevity (♂ and ♀) of red palm weevil. The B. bassiana had varying degrees of pathogenicity against different developmental stages of red palm weevil. The maximum larval duration (113.40 days) was noted when 5th instar larvae were treated with the maximum concentration (1 × 10⁸) of B. bassiana, whereas; the minimum total larval duration of 87.20 days was recorded on the lowest concentration (1 × 10⁴) of B. bassiana. The maximum pre-pual and pupal durations were noted at the maximum concentration. The maximum life span of adult male and females were noted at the lowest concentration, whereas; the minimum values were noted at the maximum concentration. The earliest mortality of red palm weevil was observed 1-day after treatment at higher concentrations of 1 × 10⁷ and 1 × 10⁸, whereas; it was recorded 3 and 4 days after treatment at lower concentrations of 1 × 10⁵ and 1 × 10⁴. At 10 days after treatment, the entomopathogenic fungus caused > 80% cumulative mortality of 5th and 6th instar larvae and adult weevils at the maximum concentrations which were more than double than those recorded at the lowest concentration. Overall, the 5th instar larvae of red palm weevils were most susceptible to the fungus compared to the 6th instar larvae and adult weevils. Based on current findings, it is suggested that entomopathogenic fungi could be used for the safer management of red palm weevil.

Keywords: entomopathogenic nematodes, mortality, red palm weevil, sub-lethal effects

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6142 Evaluation of Food Safety and Security Practices in Midday Meal Programmes in Rural Areas of Beed District

Authors: Nuzhat Sultana M. B.

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Children are high-risk population in terms of food born illnesses. Food safety and security are the most important aspect of the success of midday meal programmes. Improper holding temperatures, cross-contamination and poor personal hygiene of food handlers are the main causes for the prevalence of pathogenic microbes in the food servicing areas. Two hundred and fifty preschool children in the age of 3 to 6 years from urban and rural anganwadies (pre school center) of Beed district were selected. Nutritional status of preschool children were assessed by anthropometrical and clinical measurement. The study assessed the food safety and security with the help of personal hygiene and other safety measures maintained by the food personnel working for midday meal programme, supplying mid meals to children in govt. anganwadies (pre school center). The hygiene level, sanitary condition and microbial quality of food and water, pathological health examination of food handlers were assessed with the help of checklist. A questionnaire was designed to evaluate knowledge, attitude, and practices of food handlers. Results of the study show that the nutritional and health status of rural and urban preschool children was very poor. Many of the food handlers were not aware of general knowledge and hygiene practices to be followed during food preparation areas. An intervention programme of education and importing training at workplaces has shown a positive impact on the outcome of safety and security practices and safe, hygienic practices of food handlers at workplace.

Keywords: food, health, preschool children, safety, security

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6141 The Role of Long-Chain Ionic Surfactants on Extending Drug Delivery from Contact Lenses

Authors: Cesar Torres, Robert Briber, Nam Sun Wang

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Eye drops are the most commonly used treatment for short-term and long-term ophthalmic diseases. However, eye drops could deliver only about 5% of the functional ingredients contained in a burst dosage. To address the limitations of eye drops, the use of therapeutic contact lenses has been introduced. Drug-loaded contact lenses provide drugs a longer residence time in the tear film and hence, decrease the potential risk of side effects. Nevertheless, a major limitation of contact lenses as drug delivery devices is that most of the drug absorbed is released within the first few hours. This fact limits their use for extended release. The present study demonstrates the application of long-alkyl chain ionic surfactants on extending drug release kinetics from commercially available silicone hydrogel contact lenses. In vitro release experiments were carried by immersing drug-containing contact lenses in phosphate buffer saline at physiological pH. The drug concentration as a function of time was monitored using ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy. The results of the study demonstrate that release kinetics is dependent on the ionic surfactant weight percent in the contact lenses, and on the length of the hydrophobic alkyl chain of the ionic surfactants. The use of ionic surfactants in contact lenses can extend the delivery of drugs from a few hours to a few weeks, depending on the physicochemical properties of the drugs. Contact lenses embedded with ionic surfactants could be potential biomaterials to be used for extended drug delivery and in the treatment of ophthalmic diseases. However, ocular irritation and toxicity studies would be needed to evaluate the safety of the approach.

Keywords: contact lenses, drug delivery, controlled release, ionic surfactant

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6140 Relation between Biochemical Parameters and Bone Density in Postmenopausal Women with Osteoporosis

Authors: Shokouh Momeni, Mohammad Reza Salamat, Ali Asghar Rastegari

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Background: Osteoporosis is the most prevalent metabolic bone disease in postmenopausal women associated with reduced bone mass and increased bone fracture. Measuring bone density in the lumbar spine and hip is a reliable measure of bone mass and can therefore specify the risk of fracture. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry(DXA) is an accurate non-invasive system measuring the bone density, with low margin of error and no complications. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship between biochemical parameters with bone density in postmenopausal women. Materials and methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 87 postmenopausal women referred to osteoporosis centers in Isfahan. Bone density was measured in the spine and hip area using DXA system. Serum levels of calcium, phosphorus, alkaline phosphatase and magnesium were measured by autoanalyzer and serum levels of vitamin D were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography(HPLC). Results: The mean parameters of calcium, phosphorus, alkaline phosphatase, vitamin D and magnesium did not show a significant difference between the two groups(P-value>0.05). In the control group, the relationship between alkaline phosphatase and BMC and BA in the spine was significant with a correlation coefficient of -0.402 and 0.258, respectively(P-value<0.05) and BMD and T-score in the femoral neck area showed a direct and significant relationship with phosphorus(Correlation=0.368; P-value=0.038). There was a significant relationship between the Z-score with calcium(Correlation=0.358; P-value=0.044). Conclusion: There was no significant relationship between the values ​​of calcium, phosphorus, alkaline phosphatase, vitamin D and magnesium parameters and bone density (spine and hip) in postmenopaus

Keywords: osteoporosis, menopause, bone mineral density, vitamin d, calcium, magnesium, alkaline phosphatase, phosphorus

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6139 Tourism and Sustainability Example Projects in the EU

Authors: Renee Yi-Mond Yuan

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The fast development of tourism industries around the world, has largely contributed to many cities, and countries economical and social progress. Past year Taiwan in particular was ranked among one of fastest raise growth country. Thanks to the prominent importance of this phenomenon; seasonal mobility or multipurpose trips have reached more than 1 Billion tourists crossing International borders and more than 4 billion intramural travelers that have nourished the economy and employment in the service sector in most attractive regions, representing about one tenth of World GDP amount, including trade, research, cultural or journalistic purposes. Then the increased activities are giving pressure to the consumption of energy, water, resources, and Greenhouse Gas emissions. The further concentration of tourists in most beautiful sites of the World with consistent supply and reduced pollutions and means for waste control and risks management are challenging the preservation and protection of the natural original environment, including species and their ecosystems, ethnics and their cultures or languages, protection of inherited landscapes and monuments for the future generations to come. In this article, few projects will be analyzed, methods and directions in the EU sustainable development scheme giving way to economical and social activities and preserve rural areas and remote countryside as well as smarter cities development. EU ETS forecasting escalation in the next few decades for road and air, and will reconsider investments and reliance on Biobased alternatives that may turn out solutions and contributions to sustain popularization of tourism development. Study of Examples of Stakeholders practices and Governments efforts, consumer’s attitude to bring new forms of more responsible holidays models: ecotourism, eco-certification, partnerships, investment in technologies and facilities, and possibly create greener perceptions and less impacting demands for the longer term through association, organizations and awards.

Keywords: tourism, sustainability, protection, risks management, change in rural/urban environment

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6138 Competing Risks Modeling Using within Node Homogeneity Classification Tree

Authors: Kazeem Adesina Dauda, Waheed Babatunde Yahya

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To design a tree that maximizes within-node homogeneity, there is a need for a homogeneity measure that is appropriate for event history data with multiple risks. We consider the use of Deviance and Modified Cox-Snell residuals as a measure of impurity in Classification Regression Tree (CART) and compare our results with the results of Fiona (2008) in which homogeneity measures were based on Martingale Residual. Data structure approach was used to validate the performance of our proposed techniques via simulation and real life data. The results of univariate competing risk revealed that: using Deviance and Cox-Snell residuals as a response in within node homogeneity classification tree perform better than using other residuals irrespective of performance techniques. Bone marrow transplant data and double-blinded randomized clinical trial, conducted in other to compare two treatments for patients with prostate cancer were used to demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed method vis-à-vis the existing ones. Results from empirical studies of the bone marrow transplant data showed that the proposed model with Cox-Snell residual (Deviance=16.6498) performs better than both the Martingale residual (deviance=160.3592) and Deviance residual (Deviance=556.8822) in both event of interest and competing risks. Additionally, results from prostate cancer also reveal the performance of proposed model over the existing one in both causes, interestingly, Cox-Snell residual (MSE=0.01783563) outfit both the Martingale residual (MSE=0.1853148) and Deviance residual (MSE=0.8043366). Moreover, these results validate those obtained from the Monte-Carlo studies.

Keywords: within-node homogeneity, Martingale residual, modified Cox-Snell residual, classification and regression tree

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6137 Effects of Sexual Activities in Male Athletes Performance

Authors: Andreas Aceranti, Simonetta Vernocchi, Marco Colorato, Massimo Briamo, Giovanni Abalsamo

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Most of the benefits of sport come from related physical activity, however, there are secondary psychological positive effects. There are also obvious disadvantages, high tensions related to failure, injuries, eating disorders and burnout. Depressive symptoms and illnesses related to anxiety or stress can be preventable or even simply alleviated through regular activity and exercise. It has been shown that the practice of a sport brings physical benefits, but can also have psychological and spiritual benefits. Reduced performance in male individuals has been linked to sexual activity before competitions in the past. The long-standing debate about the impact of sexual activity on sports performance has been controversial in the mainstream media in recent decades. This salacious topic has generated extensive discussion, although its high-quality data has been limited. Literature has, so far, mainly included subjective assessments from surveys. However, such surveys can be skewed as these assessments are based on individual beliefs, perceptions, and memory. There has been a long discussion over the years but even there objective data has been lacking. One reason behind coaches' bans on sexual activity before sporting events may be the belief that abstinence increases frustration, which in turn is shifted into aggressive behavior toward competitors. However, this assumption is not always valid. In fact, depriving an athlete of a normal activity can cause feelings of guilt and loss of concentration. Sexual activity during training can promote relaxation and positively influence performance. The author concludes that, although there is a need for scientific research in this area, it seems that sexual intercourse does not decrease performance unless it is accompanied by late night socialization, loss of sleep or drinking. Although the effects of sexual engagement on aerobic and strength athletic performance have not been definitively established, most research seems to rule out a direct impact. In order to analyze, as much as possible without bias, whether sexual activity significantly affects an athletic performance or not, we sampled 5 amateur athletes, between 22 and 25 years old and all male. The study was based on the timing of 4 running races of 5 champions. We asked participants to respect guidelines to avoid sexual activity (sex or masturbation) 12 hours before 2 of the 4 competitions, and to practice before the remaining 2 races.In doing so, we were able to compare and analyze the impact of activity and abstinence on performance results. We have come to the conclusion that sexual behavior on athletic performance needs to be better understood, more randomized trials and high-quality controls are strongly needed but available information suggests that sexual activity the day before a race has no negative effects on performance.

Keywords: sex, masturbation, male performance, soccer

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6136 Pregnancy Rate and Outcomes after Uterine Fibroid Embolization Single Centre Experience in the Middle East from the United Arab Emirates at Alain Hospital

Authors: Jamal Alkoteesh, Mohammed Zeki, Mouza Alnaqbi

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Objective: To evaluate pregnancy outcomes, complications and neonatal outcomes in women who had previously undergone uterine arterial embolization. Design: Retrospective study. In this study, most women opted for UFE as a fertility treatment after failure of myomectomy or in vitro fertilization, or because hysterectomy was the only suggested option. Background. Myomectomy is the standard approach in patients with fibroids desiring a future pregnancy. However, myomectomy may be difficult in cases of numerous interstitial and/or submucous fibroids.In these cases, UFE has the advantage of embolizing all fibroids in one procedure. This procedure is an accepted nonsurgical treatment for symptomatic uterine fibroids. Study Methods: A retrospective study of 210 patients treated with UFE for symptomatic uterine fibroids between 2011-2016 was performed. UFE was performed using ((PVA; Embozen, Beadblock) (500-900 µm in diameter). Pregnancies were identified using screening questionnaires and the study database. Of the 210 patients who received UFE treatment, 35 women younger than the age of 40 wanted to conceive and had been unable. All women in our study were advised to wait six months or more after UFE before attempting to become pregnant, of which the reported time range before attempting to conceive was seven to 33 months (average 20 months). RESULTS: In a retrospective chart review of patients younger than the age of 40 (35 patients,18 patients reported 23 pregnancies, of which five were miscarriages. Two more pregnancies were complicated by premature labor. Of the 23 pregnancies, 16 were normal full-term pregnancies, 15 women had conceived once, and four had become pregnant twice. The remaining patients did not conceive. In the study, there was no reported intrauterine growth retardation in the prenatal period, fetal distress during labor, or problems related to uterine integrity. Two patients reported minor problems during pregnancy that were borderline oligohydramnios and low-lying placenta. In the cohort of women who did conceive, overall, 16 out of 18 births proceeded normally without any complications (86%). Eight women delivered by cesarean section, and 10 women had normal vaginal delivery. In this study of 210 women, UFE had a fertility rate of 47%. Our group of 23 pregnancies was small, but did confirm successful pregnancy after UFE. The 45.7% pregnancy rate in women below the age of 40 years old who completed a term pregnancy compares favorably with women who underwent myomectomy via other method. Of the women in the cohort who did conceive, subsequent birth proceeded normally (86%). Conclusion: Pregnancy after UFE is well-documented. The risks of infertility following embolization, premature menopause, and hysterectomy are small, as is the radiation exposure during embolization. Fertility rates appear similar to patients undergoing myomectomy.UFE should not be contraindicated in patients who want to conceive and they should be able to choose between surgical options and UFE.

Keywords: fibroid, pregnancy, therapeutic embolization, uterine artery

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6135 The Role of Privatization on the Formulation of Productive Supply Chain: The Case of Ethiopian Firms

Authors: Merhawit Fisseha Gebremariam, Yohannes Yebabe Tesfay

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This study focuses on the formulation of a sustainable, effective, and efficient supply chain strategy framework that will enable Ethiopian privatized firms. The study examined the role of privatization in productive sourcing, production, and delivery to Ethiopian firm’s performances. To analyze our hypothesis, the authors applied the concepts of Key Performance Indicator (KPI), strategic outsourcing, purchasing portfolio analysis, and Porter's marketing analysis. The authors selected ten privatized companies and compared their financial, market expansion, and sustainability performances. The Chi-Square Test showed that at the 5% level of significance, privatization and outsourcing activities can assist the business performances of Ethiopian firms in terms of product promotion and new market expansion. At the 5% level of significance, the independent t-test result showed that firms that were privatized by Ethiopian investors showed stronger financial performance than those that were privatized by foreign investors. Furthermore, it is better if Ethiopian firms apply both cost leadership and differentiated strategy to enhance thriving in their business area. Ethiopian firms need to implement the supply chain operations reference (SCOR) model for an exclusive framework that supports communication links the supply chain partners, and enhances productivity. The government of Ethiopia should be aware that the privatization of firms by Ethiopian investors will strengthen the economy. Otherwise, the privatization process will be risky for the country, and therefore, the government of Ethiopia should stop doing those activities.

Keywords: correlation analysis, market strategies, KPIs, privatization, risk and Ethiopia

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6134 Prevention of Corruption in Public Purchases

Authors: Anatoly Krivinsh

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The results of dissertation research "Preventing and combating corruption in public procurement" are presented in this publication. The study was conducted 2011 till 2013 in a Member State of the European Union, in the Republic of Latvia. Goal of the thesis is to explore corruption prevention and combating issues in public procurement sphere, to identify the prevalence rates, determinants and contributing factors and prevention opportunities in Latvia. In the first chapter the author analyses theoretical aspects of understanding corruption in public procurement, with particular emphasis on corruption definition problem, its nature, causes and consequences. A separate section is dedicated to the public procurement concept, mechanism and legal framework. In the first part of this work the author presents cognitive methodology of corruption in public procurement field, based on which the author has carried out an analysis of corruption situation in public procurement in Republic of Latvia. In the second chapter of the thesis, the author analyzes the problem of corruption in public procurement, including its historical aspects, typology and classification of corruption subjects involved, corruption risk elements in public procurement and their identification. During the development of the second chapter author's practical experience in public procurements was widely used. The third and fourth chapter deals with issues related to the prevention and combating corruption in public procurement, namely the operation of the concept, principles, methods and techniques, subjects in Republic of Latvia, as well as an analysis of foreign experience in preventing and combating corruption. The fifth chapter is devoted to the corruption prevention and combating perspectives and their assessment. In this chapter the author has made the evaluation of corruption prevention and combating measures efficiency in Republic of Latvia, assessment of anti-corruption legislation development stage in public procurement field in Latvia.

Keywords: prevention of corruption, public purchases, good governance, human rights

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6133 Low-Cost Reusable Thermal Energy Storage Particle for Concentrating Solar Power

Authors: Kyu Bum Han, Eunjin Jeon, Kimberly Watts, Brenda Payan Medina

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Gen3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) high-temperature thermal systems have the potential to lower the cost of a CSP system. When compared to the other systems (chloride salt blends and supercritical fluids), the particle transport system can avoid many of the issues associated with high fluid temperature systems at high temperature because of its ability to operate at ambient pressure with limited corrosion or thermal stability risk. Furthermore, identifying and demonstrating low-cost particles that have excellent optical properties and durability can significantly reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of particle receivers. The currently available thermal transfer particle in the study and market is oxidized at about 700oC, which reduces its durability, generates particle loss by high friction loads, and causes the color change. To meet the CSP SunShot goal, the durability of particles must be improved by identifying particles that are less abrasive to other structural materials. Furthermore, the particles must be economically affordable and the solar absorptance of the particles must be increased while minimizing thermal emittance. We are studying a novel thermal transfer particle, which has low cost, high durability, and high solar absorptance at high temperatures. The particle minimizes thermal emittance and will be less abrasive to other structural materials. Additionally, the particle demonstrates reusability, which significantly lowers the LCOE. This study will contribute to two principal disciplines of energy science: materials synthesis and manufacturing. Developing this particle for thermal transfer will have a positive impact on the ceramic study and industry as well as the society.

Keywords: concentrating solar power, thermal energy storage, particle, reusability, economics

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6132 Communication Barriers and Challenges for Accessing Autism Care: Conventional Versus Alternative Medicine

Authors: M. D. Antoine

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Despite the widespread use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) for autistic children, little is known about the communication flow between the different parties involved in autism care (e.g., parents/caregivers, conventional providers, alternative practitioners). This study aimed to describe how communication occurs through the first year following an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis to identify challenges and potential barriers to communication within the healthcare system in Ottawa, Canada. From an ecological perspective, we collected qualitative data through 12 semi-structured interviews with six parents/caregivers, three conventional providers (e.g., family doctor, neurodevelopmental pediatrician, psychologist), and three alternative practitioners (e.g., naturopath, occupational therapist, speech and language pathologist) operating in Ottawa. We interpreted the data using thematic analysis. Findings revealed communication challenges between the parents/caregivers and conventional providers while they experience better communication flow with fewer challenges in alternative care settings. However, parents/caregivers are the only links between the health professionals of both streams. From the five contexts examined: organizational, interpersonal, media, cultural, and political-legal, we found four themes (provider knowledge, care integration, flexible care, and time constraints) underlining specific barriers to communication flow between the parties involved in the care of autistic children. The increasing interest in alternative medicine is forcing changes in the healthcare system. Communications occur outside the norms making openings for better communication and information-sharing increasingly essential. Within the identified themes in the current study, the necessity for better communication between all parties involved in the care of autistic children is evident. More ASD and CAM-related training for providers would support effective parent/caregiver-provider communication. The findings of the current study contribute to a better understanding of the role of communication in the care management of autism, which has implications for effective autism care.

Keywords: alternative medicine, autism care management, autism spectrum disorder, conventional medicine, parent-provider communication

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6131 The Future of Sharia Financing Analysis of Green Finance Financing Strategies in the Sharia State of Aceh

Authors: Damanhur Munardi, Muhammad Hafiz, Dina Nurmalita Sari, Syarifah Ridani Alifa

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Purpose: This research aims to analyze the Benefits, Opportunity, Cost, and Risk aspects of applying the Green Finance concept and to obtain the right Green Finance financing strategy to be implemented within a long-term and short-term strategic framework.Methodology: This research method uses a qualitative-descriptive analysis approach. The analysis technique uses Analytical Network Process (ANP) with a BOCR network structure approach.Findings: The research results show that the most priority long-term strategic alternative based on the long-term BOCR analysis is increasing awareness among the public and industry by 52% and the importance of coordination between related institutions by 50%. Meanwhile, the most priority short-term strategic alternatives are the importance of coordination between related institutions 29%, increasing awareness among the public and industry 28%, the banking industry proactively funding environmentally friendly companies and technology 23%, the existence of Green Finance POS (Standard Operating Procedures) 20%.Implications: This research can be used as a reference for regulators and policymakers in making strategic decisions that can increase green finance financing. The novelty of this research is identifying problems that occur in green finance financing in Aceh province by analyzing opinions from experts in related fields and financial regulators in Aceh to create a strategy that can be implemented to increase green finance financing in Aceh province through BPD in Aceh, namely Bank Aceh.

Keywords: green financing, banking, sharia, islamic

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6130 Changes in Forest Cover Regulate Streamflow in Central Nigerian Gallery Forests

Authors: Rahila Yilangai, Sonali Saha, Amartya Saha, Augustine Ezealor

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Gallery forests in sub-Saharan Africa are drastically disappearing due to intensive anthropogenic activities thus reducing ecosystem services, one of which is water provisioning. The role played by forest cover in regulating streamflow and water yield is not well understood, especially in West Africa. This pioneering 2-year study investigated the interrelationships between plant cover and hydrology in protected and unprotected gallery forests. Rainfall, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) measurements/estimates over 2015-2016 were obtained to form a water balance for both catchments. In addition, transpiration in the protected gallery forest with high vegetation cover was calculated from stomatal conductance readings of selected species chosen from plot level data of plant diversity and abundance. Results showed that annual streamflow was significantly higher in the unprotected site than the protected site, even when normalized by catchment area. However, streamflow commenced earlier and lasted longer in the protected site than the degraded unprotected site, suggesting regulation by the greater tree density in the protected site. Streamflow correlated strongly with rainfall with the highest peak in August. As expected, transpiration measurements were less than potential evapotranspiration estimates, while rainfall exceeded ET in the water cycle. The water balance partitioning suggests that the lower vegetation cover in the unprotected catchment leads to a larger runoff in the rainy season and less infiltration, thereby leading to streams drying up earlier, than in the protected catchment. This baseline information is important in understanding the contribution of plants in water cycle regulation, for modeling integrative water management in applied research and natural resource management in sustaining water resources with changing the land cover and climate uncertainties in this data-poor region.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, gallery forest, rainfall, streamflow, transpiration

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6129 Estimation of the Dynamic Fragility of Padre Jacinto Zamora Bridge Due to Traffic Loads

Authors: Kimuel Suyat, Francis Aldrine Uy, John Paul Carreon

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The Philippines, composed of many islands, is connected with approximately 8030 bridges. Continuous evaluation of the structural condition of these bridges is needed to safeguard the safety of the general public. With most bridges reaching its design life, retrofitting and replacement may be needed. Concerned government agencies allocate huge costs for periodic monitoring and maintenance of these structures. The rising volume of traffic and aging of these infrastructures is challenging structural engineers to give rise for structural health monitoring techniques. Numerous techniques are already proposed and some are now being employed in other countries. Vibration Analysis is one way. The natural frequency and vibration of a bridge are design criteria in ensuring the stability, safety and economy of the structure. Its natural frequency must not be so high so as not to cause discomfort and not so low that the structure is so stiff causing it to be both costly and heavy. It is well known that the stiffer the member is, the more load it attracts. The frequency must not also match the vibration caused by the traffic loads. If this happens, a resonance occurs. Vibration that matches a systems frequency will generate excitation and when this exceeds the member’s limit, a structural failure will happen. This study presents a method for calculating dynamic fragility through the use of vibration-based monitoring system. Dynamic fragility is the probability that a structural system exceeds a limit state when subjected to dynamic loads. The bridge is modeled in SAP2000 based from the available construction drawings provided by the Department of Public Works and Highways. It was verified and adjusted based from the actual condition of the bridge. The bridge design specifications are also checked using nondestructive tests. The approach used in this method properly accounts the uncertainty of observed values and code-based structural assumptions. The vibration response of the structure due to actual loads is monitored using installed sensors on the bridge. From the determinacy of these dynamic characteristic of a system, threshold criteria can be established and fragility curves can be estimated. This study conducted in relation with the research project between Department of Science and Technology, Mapúa Institute of Technology, and the Department of Public Works and Highways also known as Mapúa-DOST Smart Bridge Project deploys Structural Health Monitoring Sensors at Zamora Bridge. The bridge is selected in coordination with the Department of Public Works and Highways. The structural plans for the bridge are also readily available.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, dynamic characteristic, threshold criteria, traffic loads

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6128 Cirrhosis Mortality Prediction as Classification using Frequent Subgraph Mining

Authors: Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Diego Klabjan, Chenxi Ge, Daniela Ladner, Parker Stride

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In this work, we use machine learning and novel data analysis techniques to predict the one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients. Data from 2,322 patients with liver cirrhosis are collected at a single medical center. Different machine learning models are applied to predict one-year mortality. A comprehensive feature space including demographic information, comorbidity, clinical procedure and laboratory tests is being analyzed. A temporal pattern mining technic called Frequent Subgraph Mining (FSM) is being used. Model for End-stage liver disease (MELD) prediction of mortality is used as a comparator. All of our models statistically significantly outperform the MELD-score model and show an average 10% improvement of the area under the curve (AUC). The FSM technic itself does not improve the model significantly, but FSM, together with a machine learning technique called an ensemble, further improves the model performance. With the abundance of data available in healthcare through electronic health records (EHR), existing predictive models can be refined to identify and treat patients at risk for higher mortality. However, due to the sparsity of the temporal information needed by FSM, the FSM model does not yield significant improvements. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to apply modern machine learning algorithms and data analysis methods on predicting one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients and builds a model that predicts one-year mortality significantly more accurate than the MELD score. We have also tested the potential of FSM and provided a new perspective of the importance of clinical features.

Keywords: machine learning, liver cirrhosis, subgraph mining, supervised learning

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