Search results for: unobservable state variables

Authors: Sree Sanyal

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Research in ageing often highlights the age-related health dimension more than the psycho-social characteristics of the elderly, which also influences and challenges the health outcomes. Multimorbidity is defined as the person having more than one chronic non-communicable diseases and their prevalence increases with ageing. The study aims to evaluate the influence of social ties on self-reported prevalence of multimorbidity (selected chronic non-communicable diseases) among the selected states of elderly population in India. The data is accessed from Building Knowledge Base on Population Ageing in India (BKPAI), collected in 2011 covering the self-reported chronic non-communicable diseases like arthritis, heart disease, diabetes, lung disease with asthma, hypertension, cataract, depression, dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and cancer. The data of the above diseases were taken together and categorized as: ‘no disease’, ‘one disease’ and ‘multimorbidity’. The predicted variables were demographic, socio-economic, residential types, and the variable of social ties includes social support, social engagement, perceived support, connectedness, and importance of the elderly. Predicted probability for multiple logistic regression was used to determine the background characteristics of the old in association with chronic morbidities showing multimorbidity. The finding suggests that 24.35% of the elderly are suffering from multimorbidity. Research shows that with reference to ‘no disease’, according to the socio-economic characteristics of the old, the female oldest old (80+) from others in caste and religion, widowed, never had any formal education, ever worked in their life, coming from the second wealth quintile standard, from rural Maharashtra are more prone with ‘one disease’. From the social ties background, the elderly who perceives they are important to the family, after getting older their decision-making status has been changed, prefer to stay with son and spouse only, satisfied with the communication from their children are more likely to have less single morbidity and the results are significant. Again, with respect to ‘no disease’, the female oldest old (80+), who are others in caste, Christian in religion, widowed, having less than 5 years of education completed, ever worked, from highest wealth quintile, residing in urban Kerala are more associated with multimorbidity. The elderly population who are more socially connected through family visits, public gatherings, gets support in decision making, who prefers to spend their later years with son and spouse only but stays alone shows lesser prevalence of multimorbidity. In conclusion, received and perceived social integration and support from associated neighborhood in the older days, knowing about their own needs in life facilitates better health and wellbeing of the elderly population in selected states of India.

Keywords: morbidity, multi-morbidity, prevalence, social ties

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Authors: Shabnam Najafi, Metin Turkay

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Network design problem (NDP) is used to determine the set of optimal values for certain pre-specified decision variables such as capacity expansion of nodes and links by optimizing various system performance measures including safety, congestion, and accessibility. The designed transportation network should improve objective functions defined for the system by considering the route choice behaviors of network users at the same time. The NDP studies mostly investigated the random demand and route selection constraints separately due to computational challenges. In this work, we consider both random demand and route selection constraints simultaneously. This work presents a nonlinear stochastic model for land use and road network design problem to address the development of different functional zones in urban areas by considering both cost function and air pollution. This model minimizes cost function and air pollution simultaneously with random demand and stochastic route selection constraint that aims to optimize network performance via road capacity expansion. The Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) link impedance function is used to determine the travel time function in each link. We consider a city with origin and destination nodes which can be residential or employment or both. There are set of existing paths between origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Case of increasing employed population is analyzed to determine amount of roads and origin zones simultaneously. Minimizing travel and expansion cost of routes and origin zones in one side and minimizing CO emission in the other side is considered in this analysis at the same time. In this work demand between O-D pairs is random and also the network flow pattern is subject to stochastic user equilibrium, specifically logit route choice model. Considering both demand and route choice, random is more applicable to design urban network programs. Epsilon-constraint is one of the methods to solve both linear and nonlinear multi-objective problems. In this work epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. The problem was solved by keeping first objective (cost function) as the objective function of the problem and second objective as a constraint that should be less than an epsilon, where epsilon is an upper bound of the emission function. The value of epsilon should change from the worst to the best value of the emission function to generate the family of solutions representing Pareto set. A numerical example with 2 origin zones and 2 destination zones and 7 links is solved by GAMS and the set of Pareto points is obtained. There are 15 efficient solutions. According to these solutions as cost function value increases, emission function value decreases and vice versa.

Keywords: epsilon-constraint, multi-objective, network design, stochastic

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Authors: Michael Nolte, Iwona Kasior, Kala Flagg, Spiro Karavatas

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Background: Cryotherapy has been used as a post-exercise recovery modality for decades. Whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) is an intervention which involves brief exposures to extremely cold air in order to induce therapeutic effects. It is currently being investigated for its effectiveness in treating certain exercise-induced impairments. Purpose: The purpose of this systematic review was to determine whether WBC as a recovery intervention is more, less, or equally as effective as other interventions at reducing perceived levels of muscle soreness and promoting recovery of muscle function after exercise-induced muscle damage (EIMD) from running. Methods: A systematic review of the current literature was performed utilizing the following MeSH terms: cryotherapy, whole-body cryotherapy, exercise-induced muscle damage, muscle soreness, muscle recovery, and running. The databases utilized were PubMed, CINAHL, EBSCO Host, and Google Scholar. Articles were included if they were published within the last ten years, had a CEBM level of evidence of IIb or higher, had a PEDro scale score of 5 or higher, studied runners as primary subjects, and utilized both perceived levels of muscle soreness and recovery of muscle function as dependent variables. Articles were excluded if subjects did not include runners, if the interventions included PBC instead of WBC, and if both muscle performance and perceived muscle soreness were not assessed within the study. Results: Two of the four articles revealed that WBC was significantly more effective than treatment interventions such as far-infrared radiation and passive recovery at reducing perceived levels of muscle soreness and restoring muscle power and endurance following simulated trail runs and high-intensity interval running, respectively. One of the four articles revealed no significant difference between WBC and passive recovery in terms of reducing perceived muscle soreness and restoring muscle power following sprint intervals. One of the four articles revealed that WBC had a harmful effect compared to CWI and passive recovery on both perceived muscle soreness and recovery of muscle strength and power following a marathon. Discussion/Conclusion: Though there was no consensus in terms of WBC’s effectiveness at treating exercise-induced muscle damage following running compared to other interventions, it seems as though WBC may at least have a time-dependent positive effect on muscle soreness and recovery following high-intensity interval runs and endurance running, marathons excluded. More research needs to be conducted in order to determine the most effective way to implement WBC as a recovery method for exercise-induced muscle damage, including the optimal temperature, timing, duration, and frequency of treatment.

Keywords: cryotherapy, physical therapy intervention, physical therapy, whole body cryotherapy

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Authors: Sina Fatolahzadeh, Sergio A. Sepúlveda

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This paper presents advanced developments in close-range, terrestrial remote sensing techniques to enhance the characterization of rock masses. The study integrates two state-of-the-art laser-scanning technologies, the HandySCAN and GeoSLAM laser scanners, to extract high-resolution geospatial data for rock mass analysis. These instruments offer high accuracy, precision, low acquisition time, and high efficiency in capturing intricate geological features in small to medium size outcrops and slope cuts. Using the HandySCAN and GeoSLAM laser scanners facilitates real-time, three-dimensional mapping of rock surfaces, enabling comprehensive assessments of rock mass characteristics. The collected data provide valuable insights into structural complexities, surface roughness, and discontinuity patterns, which are essential for geological and geotechnical analyses. The synergy of these advanced remote sensing technologies contributes to a more precise and straightforward understanding of rock mass behavior. In this case, the main parameters of RQD, joint spacing, persistence, aperture, roughness, infill, weathering, water condition, and joint orientation in a slope cut along the Sea-to-Sky Highway, BC, were remotely analyzed to calculate and evaluate the Rock Mass Rating (RMR) and Geological Strength Index (GSI) classification systems. Automatic and manual analyses of the acquired data are then compared with field measurements. The results show the usefulness of the proposed remote sensing methods and their appropriate conformity with the actual field data.

Keywords: remote sensing, rock mechanics, rock engineering, slope stability, discontinuity properties

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Authors: Jose D. Zapata-Torres, Esteban Naranjo-Gutiérrez, Angela M. Martínez-Valencia, Jenny J. Chaparro-Gutiérrez, David Villar-Argaiz

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Reports of drug resistance have been made in every livestock host and to every anthelmintic class. In some regions of world, the extremely high prevalence of multi-drug resistance in nematodes of sheep and goats threatens the viability of small-ruminant industries. In the region of Antioquia, Colombia, no reports of nematode resistance have been documented due to a lack of veterinary diagnostic laboratories. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of albendazole, fenbendazole, and levamisole to control gastrointestinal nematodes in goat farms of Antioquia by doing fecal egg count reduction tests. A total of 139 crossbreed goats from four separate farms were sampled for feces prior to, and 14 days following anthelmintc treatments. Individual fecal egg counts were performed using the modified three chamber McMaster technique. The anthelmintics administered at day 0 were albendazole (farm 1, n=63), fenbendazole (farm 2, n=20), and levamisole (farm 3 and 4, n= 37, and 19). Larval cultures were used to identify the genus of nematodes using Baermann`s technique and the morphological keys for identification of L3 in small ruminants. There was no difference in fecal egg counts between 0 and 14, with means (±SD) of 1681,5 ± 2121,5 and 1715,12 ± 1895,4 epg (eggs per gram), respectively. The egg count reductions for each anthelmintic and farm were 25,86% for albendazole (farm 1), 0% for fenbendazole (farm 2), 0% (farm 3), and 5,5% (farm 4) for levamisole. The genus of nematodes identified was predominantly Haemonchus spp., with 70,27% and 82,81% for samples from day 0 and 14, respectively. These results provide evidence of a total state of resistance to 3 common anthelmintics. Further research is needed to design integrate management programs to control nematodes in small ruminants in Colombia.

Keywords: anthelmintics, goat, haemonchus, resistance

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Authors: Harsi Nastiti, Haidar Fikri

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Indonesia has been known for its diversity of cultures, ethnics, religions, and races. This diversity signs as the uniqueness of the country, so tolerance becomes vital point here. As a unitary state, tolerance value is established strongly as the foundation of democracy implementation but recently this tolerance condition facing up some problems after regional election. In this case, religion issue takes a main role for the Indonesian political system which is managed into tolerance breaker especially for local democracy. The election of Jakarta’s Governor 2017 can be said as the momentum for the people to rethink the democracy and tolerance meaning. It begins from one of the governor candidates who makes statement about the majority religion and unfortunately the candidate comes from the minority. The statement emerges into a new social movement based on religiosity. Basically, the social movement which is coordinated by Islamic Defender Front (Front Pembela Islam or FPI) and National Movement to Safeguard the Fatwa-Indonesian Ulama Council (GNPF-MUI) want to demand the justice in the name of blasphemy. The action continuously happens in different names (Action 411, 212, etc.). So, this article analyzes the new phenomenon and how does the impact for the tolerance and democracy life in Indonesia. The method is using qualitative method by review of literature and media content analysis. Results show this phenomenon potentially spreading new conflicts far beyond the goal of the action itself; justice. It makes the conflicts more complex after there are actions such as; Parade Kebhinekaan and Aksi Lilin which contrary reacts to the actions before. These actions and reactions rise up the sensitive issues for Indonesia like religions, Pancasila, unity in diversity, ethnics, and races. At the same time raising skepticism; will it be over after the candidate is getting sentenced or becomes the dangerous latent conflict that will threaten tolerance and democracy in Indonesia.

Keywords: conflict, democracy, religion, tolerance

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Authors: Helen Huang, Francisco Javier Quesada Ocet, Blanca Quesada Oce, Javier Jimenez Bello, Victor Palanca Gil, Alba Cervero Rubio, Ana Paya Chaume, Alejandro Herreros-Pomares, Fernando Vidal-Vanaclocha, Rafael Paya Serrano, Aurelio Quesada Dorador, Monica Soliman

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Background: Cancer favors both the pro-inflammatory state and autonomic dysfunction, two important mechanisms in the genesis of AF. Atrial remodeling might be caused as a result of paraneoplastic conditions or the result of direct expression of neoplasia. Here, we hypothesize that cancer, through inflammatory mediators, may favor the appearance of AF and patients with the first episode of AF could have a higher risk of developing cancer. Method: Data was collected from patients who attended the emergency department of our hospital for the first episode of AF, diagnosed electrocardiographically, between 2010-2015 (n = 712). The minimum follow-up was 2 years, recording the appearance of cancer, total mortality, recurrences of AF and other events. Patients who developed cancer and those who did not during the 2 years after the onset of AF were compared, as well as with the incidence of cancer in Spain in 2012. Results: After 2 years, 35 patients (4.91%) were diagnosed with cancer, with an annual incidence of 2.45%. Hematological neoplasms were the most frequent (34.28%). The cancer group was older (76.68 +/-12.75 years vs 74.16 +/-12.71; p <0.05) and had fewer typical symptoms (palpitations) (33.38% vs 14.28% , p <0.05). The incidence of cancer in Spain during 2012 was 0.46%, much lower than our sample. When comparing the incidence by age, these differences were maintained both in those over 65 years of age and in those under 65 years of age (2.17% vs. 0.28%; 0.28% vs. 0.18% respectively). Discussion: Therefore, a high incidence of cancer in patients with the first episode of AF was observed (the annual incidence of 2.45% after the onset of AF is 6.1 times that of the general population). After the evaluation of patients with AF in their first detected episode, surveillance of the appearance of cancer should be considered in clinical practice.

Keywords: cancer, cardiovascular outcomes, atrial fibrillation, inflammation

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Authors: Zoaib Mirza

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Half of the Muslim countries in the world have declared Islam the state religion in their constitutions. Yet, none of these countries have implemented authentic Islamic laws in line with the Quran (Holy Book), practices of Prophet Mohammad (P.B.U.H) called the Sunnah, and his four successors known as the Rightly Guided - Khalifa. Since their independence, these countries have adopted different government systems like Democracy, Dictatorship, Republic, Communism, and Monarchy. Instead of benefiting the people, these government systems have put these countries into political, social, and economic crises. These Islamic countries do not have equal representation and membership in worldwide political forums. Western countries lead these forums. Therefore, it is now imperative for the Muslim leaders of all these countries to collaborate, reset, and implement the original Islamic form of government, which led to the prosperity and success of people, including non-Muslims, 1400 years ago. They should unite as one nation under Khalifat, which means establishing the authority of Allah (SWT) and following the divine commandments related to the social, political, and economic systems. As they have declared Islam in their constitution, they should work together to apply the divine framework of the governance revealed by Allah (SWT) and implemented by Prophet Mohammad (P.B.U.H) and his four successors called Khalifas. This paper provides an overview of the downfall and the end of the Khalifat system by 1924, the ways in which the West caused political, social, and economic crises in the Muslim countries, and finally, a summary of the social, political, and economic systems implemented by the Prophet Mohammad (P.B.U.H) and his successors, Khalifas, called the Rightly Guided – Hazrat Abu Bakr (RA), Hazrat Omar (RA), Hazrat Usman (RA), and Hazrat Ali (RA).

Keywords: khalifat, khilafat-e-Rashida, the rightly guided, colonization, capitalism, neocolonization, government systems

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Authors: Pinkey Yaqub

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The aim of this study was to investigate secondary (grades IX and X) students’ attitudes towards learning the English language based on the medium of instruction of the school, the gender of the students and the grade level in which they studied. A further aim was to determine students’ proficiency in the English language according to their gender, the grade level and the medium of instruction of the school. A survey was used to investigate the attitudes of secondary students towards English language learning. Simple random sampling was employed to obtain a representative sample of the target population for the research study as a comprehensive list of established English medium schools, and newly established English medium schools were available. A questionnaire ‘Attitude towards English Language Learning’ (AtELL) was adapted from a research study on Libyan secondary school students’ attitudes towards learning English language. AtELL was reviewed by experts (n=6) and later piloted on a representative sample of secondary students (n= 160). Subsequently, the questionnaire was modified - based on the reviewers’ feedback and lessons learnt during the piloting phase - and directly administered to students of grades 9 and 10 to gather information regarding their attitudes towards learning the English language. Data collection spanned a month and a half. As the data were not normally distributed, the researcher used Mann-Whitney tests to test the hypotheses formulated to investigate students’ attitudes towards learning English as well as proficiency in the language across the medium of instruction of the school, the gender of the students and the grade level of the respondents. Statistical analyses of the data showed that the students of established English medium schools exhibited a positive outlook towards English language learning in terms of the behavioural, cognitive and emotional aspects of attitude. A significant difference was observed in the attitudes of male and female students towards learning English where females showed a more positive attitude in terms of behavioural, cognitive and emotional aspects as compared to their male counterparts. Moreover, grade 10 students had a more positive attitude towards learning English language in terms of behavioural, cognitive and emotional aspects as compared to grade 9 students. Nonetheless, students of newly established English medium schools were more proficient in English as gauged by their examination scores in this subject as compared to their counterparts studying in established English medium schools. Moreover, female students were more proficient in English while students studying in grade 9 were less proficient in English than their seniors studying in grade 10. The findings of this research provide empirical evidence to future researchers wishing to explore the relationship between attitudes towards learning language and variables such as the medium of instruction of the school, gender and the grade level of the students. Furthermore, policymakers might revisit the English curriculum to formulate specific guidelines that promote a positive and gender-balanced outlook towards learning English for male and female students.

Keywords: attitude, behavioral aspect of attitude, cognitive aspect of attitude, emotional aspect of attitude

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Authors: Qian Yi Ooi

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At present, airfoil parameters are still designed and optimized according to the scale of conventional aircraft, and there are still some slight deviations in terms of scale differences. However, insufficient parameters or poor surface mesh quality is likely to occur if these small deviations are embedded in a future civil aircraft with a size that is quite different from conventional aircraft, such as a blended-wing-body (BWB) aircraft with future potential, resulting in large deviations in geometric similarity in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. To avoid this situation, the study on the CFD calculation on the geometric similarity of airfoil parameters and the quality of the surface mesh is conducted to obtain the ability of different parameterization methods applied on different airfoil scales. The research objects are three airfoil scales, including the wing root and wingtip of conventional civil aircraft and the wing root of the giant hybrid wing, used by three parameterization methods to compare the calculation differences between different sizes of airfoils. In this study, the constants including NACA 0012, a Reynolds number of 10 million, an angle of attack of zero, a C-grid for meshing, and the k-epsilon (k-ε) turbulence model are used. The experimental variables include three airfoil parameterization methods: point cloud method, B-spline curve method, and class function/shape function transformation (CST) method. The airfoil dimensions are set to 3.98 meters, 17.67 meters, and 48 meters, respectively. In addition, this study also uses different numbers of edge meshing and the same bias factor in the CFD simulation. Studies have shown that with the change of airfoil scales, different parameterization methods, the number of control points, and the meshing number of divisions should be used to improve the accuracy of the aerodynamic performance of the wing. When the airfoil ratio increases, the most basic point cloud parameterization method will require more and larger data to support the accuracy of the airfoil’s aerodynamic performance, which will face the severe test of insufficient computer capacity. On the other hand, when using the B-spline curve method, average number of control points and meshing number of divisions should be set appropriately to obtain higher accuracy; however, the quantitative balance cannot be directly defined, but the decisions should be made repeatedly by adding and subtracting. Lastly, when using the CST method, it is found that limited control points are enough to accurately parameterize the larger-sized wing; a higher degree of accuracy and stability can be obtained by using a lower-performance computer.

Keywords: airfoil, computational fluid dynamics, geometric similarity, surface mesh quality

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Authors: Felix Oromena Egara, Moeketsi Mosia

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The study aimed to evaluate the impact of blended learning on mathematics retention among secondary school students. Conducted in the Isoko North Local Government Area of Delta State, Nigeria, the research involved 1,235 senior class one (SS 1) students. Employing a non-equivalent control group pre-test-post-test quasi-experimental design, a sample of 70 students was selected from two secondary schools with ICT facilities through purposive sampling. Random allocation of students into experimental and control groups was achieved through balloting within each selected school. The investigation included three assessment points: pre-Mathematics Achievement Test (MAT), post-MAT, and post-post-MAT (retention), administered systematically by the researchers. Data collection utilized the established MAT instrument, which demonstrated a high reliability score of 0.86. Statistical analysis was conducted using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 28, with mean and standard deviation addressing study questions and analysis of covariance scrutinizing hypotheses at a significance level of .05. Results revealed significantly greater improvements in mathematics retention scores among students exposed to blended learning compared to those instructed through conventional methods. Moreover, noticeable differences in mean retention scores were observed, with male students in the blended learning group exhibiting notably higher performance. Based on these findings, recommendations were made, advocating for mathematics educators to integrate blended learning, particularly in geometry teaching, to enhance students’ retention of mathematical concepts.

Keywords: blended learning, flipped classroom model, secondary school students, station rotation model

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Authors: Victor Vasques Ribeiro

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The Santa Cruz dos Navegantes beach is located in the city of Guarujá, in the central portion of the coast of the state of São Paulo. Next to this beach is located the Channel of the Port of Santos, configured as a source of plastic pellets for marine environments. On sandy beaches near the sources, especially during the winter and after cold front entrance events, the amounts of pellets can be very high. This study aimed to determine the influence of a cold front entry event of the winter of 2019 on the amount of pellets found on Santa Cruz dos Navegantes beach, besides assuming the proximity of the sources. During six consecutive collection campaigns, three of which were previous and three after the cold front entry peak, 30.0 square meters of surface sediments were sampled in each campaign. The color and shape of the pellets were determined to assume the length of the permanence of these granules in the marine environment and, consequently, the proximity of the sources. This beach was considered ideal for this type of research. The pellet pollution index (PPI) was from moderate to very high right after the peak of the cold front entry. The cold front peak event significantly influenced the amount of pellets found on the beach of Santa Cruz dos Navegantes. The factors that can bury the pellets in the sediments were classified as low when compared to other beaches in the region. Most of the pellets found were recently produced and lost to aquatic environments. Like the other beaches near Santos Bay, Santa Cruz dos Navegantes beach receives significant amounts of pellets that have nearby origins. Therefore, it was supposed that the activities of the Santos port complex are sources of pellets for the marine environment. This pollution can be further worsened in certain meteoceanographic events. The beaches of this region need to be constantly monitored and evaluated for pollution by pellets.

Keywords: beach, cold front, pellets, sources

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Authors: Lennart Dimberg, Lala Joulha Ian

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Introduction: Overweight (BMI 25-30) and obesity (BMI 30+) have consistently been associated with cardiovascular (CV) risk and death since the Framingham heart study in 1948, and BMI was included in the original Framingham risk score (FRS). Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) poses a serious threat to the patient's life. In addition to BMI, several other indices of overweight have been presented and argued to replace FRS as more relevant measures of CV risk. These indices include waist circumference (WC), waist/hip ratio (WHR), sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), and sagittal abdominal diameter to height (SADHtR). Specific research question: The research question of this study is to evaluate the interrelationship between the various body measurements, BMI, WC, WHR, SAD, and SADHtR, and which measurement is strongly associated with MI and death. Methods: In 1993, 1,000 middle-aged Caucasian, randomly selected working men of the Swedish Volvo-Renault cohort were surveyed at a nurse-led health examination with a questionnaire, EKG, laboratory tests, blood pressure, height, weight, waist, and sagittal abdominal diameter measurements. Outcome data of myocardial infarction over 28 years come from Swedeheart (the Swedish national myocardial infarction registry) and the Swedish death registry. The Aalen-Johansen and Kaplan–Meier methods were used to estimate the cumulative incidences of MI and death. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to compare BMI with the other four body measurements. The risk for the various measures of obesity was calculated with outcomes of accumulated first-time myocardial infarction and death as odds ratios (OR) in quartiles. The ORs between the 4th and the 1st quartile of each measure were calculated to estimate the association between the body measurement variables and the probability of cumulative incidences of myocardial infarction (MI) over time. Double-sided P values below 0.05 will be considered statistically significant. Unadjusted odds ratios were calculated for obesity indicators, MI, and death. Adjustments for age, diabetes, SBP, and the ratio of total cholesterol/HDL-C and blue/white collar status were performed. Results: Out of 1000 people, 959 subjects had full information about the five different body measurements. Of those, 90 participants had a first MI, and 194 persons died. The study showed that there was a high and significant correlation between the five different body measurements, and they were all associated with CVD risk factors. All body measurements were significantly associated with MI, with the highest (OR=3.6) seen for SADHtR and WC. After adjustment, all but SADHtR remained significant with weaker ORs. As for all-cause mortality, WHR (OR=1.7), SAD (OR=1.9), and SADHtR (OR=1.6) were significantly associated, but not WC and BMI. However, after adjustment, only WHR and SAD were significantly associated with death, but with attenuated ORs.

Keywords: BMI, death, epidemiology, myocardial infarction, risk factor, sagittal abdominal diameter, sagittal abdominal diameter to height, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio

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Authors: Gerhard Grebe, Johan Marx

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The aim of the study is to assess the state of operational risk management and the adoption of an appropriate risk culture in Ghanaian banks. The Bank of Ghana (BoG) joined the Basel Consultative Group (BCG) of the Basel Committee on Bank Supervision (BCBS) in 2021 and is proceeding with the implementation of the Basel III international regulatory framework for banks. The BoG’s Directive about risk management encourages, inter alia, the creation of an appropriate risk culture by Ghanaian banks. However, it is not evident how the risk management staff of Ghanaian banks experience the risk culture and the implementation of operational risk management in the banks where they are employed. Ghana is a developing economy, and it is addressing challenges with its organisational culture. According to Transparency International, successive Ghanaian governments claim to be fighting corruption, but little success has been achieved so far. This points to a possible lack of accountability, transparency, and integrity in the environment in which Ghanaian banks operate and which could influence their risk culture negatively. Purposive sampling was used for the survey, and the questionnaire was completed byGhanaian bank personnel who specializesin operational risk management, risk governance, and compliance, bank supervision, risk analyses, as well as the implementation of the operational risk management requirements of the Basel regulatory frameworks. The respondents indicated that they are fostering a risk culture and implementing monitoring and reporting procedures; the three lines of defence (3LOD); compliance; internal auditing; disclosure of operational risk information; and receiving guidance from the bank supervisor in an attempt to improve their operational risk management practices. However, the respondents reported the following challenges with staff members who are not inside the risk management departments(in order of priority), namelydemonstrating a risk culture, training and development; communication; reporting and disclosure; roles and responsibilities; performance appraisal; and technological and environmental barriers. Recommendations to address these challenges are provided

Keywords: ghana, operational risk, risk culture, risk management

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Authors: Anthony D. Rhodes, Manan Goel

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We provide a high fidelity deep learning algorithm (HyperSeg) for interactive video segmentation tasks using a dense convolutional network with context-aware skip connections and compressed, 'hypercolumn' image features combined with a convolutional tessellation procedure. In order to maintain high output fidelity, our model crucially processes and renders all image features in high resolution, without utilizing downsampling or pooling procedures. We maintain this consistent, high grade fidelity efficiently in our model chiefly through two means: (1) we use a statistically-principled, tensor decomposition procedure to modulate the number of hypercolumn features and (2) we render these features in their native resolution using a convolutional tessellation technique. For improved pixel-level segmentation results, we introduce a boundary loss function; for improved temporal coherence in video data, we include temporal image information in our model. Through experiments, we demonstrate the improved accuracy of our model against baseline models for interactive segmentation tasks using high resolution video data. We also introduce a benchmark video segmentation dataset, the VFX Segmentation Dataset, which contains over 27,046 high resolution video frames, including green screen and various composited scenes with corresponding, hand-crafted, pixel-level segmentations. Our work presents a improves state of the art segmentation fidelity with high resolution data and can be used across a broad range of application domains, including VFX pipelines and medical imaging disciplines.

Keywords: computer vision, object segmentation, interactive segmentation, model compression

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Authors: Aouina Nabila Yasmina, Zine El Abidine Chaoui

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Recently, understanding the interactions of electrons with the DNA molecule and its components has attracted considerable interest because DNA is the main site damaged by ionizing radiation. The interactions of radiation with DNA induce a variety of molecular damage such as single-strand breaks, double-strand breaks, basic damage, cross-links between proteins and DNA, and others, or the formation of free radicals, which, by chemical reactions with DNA, can also lead to breakage of the strand. One factor that can contribute significantly to these processes is the effect of water hydration on the formation and reaction of radiation induced by these radicals in and / or around DNA. B-DNA requires about 30% by weight of water to maintain its native conformation in the crystalline state. The transformation depends on various factors such as sequence, ion composition, concentration and water activity. Partial dehydration converts it to DNA-A. The present study shows the results of theoretical calculations for positrons and electrons elastic scattering with DNA medium and water over a broad energy range from 10 eV to 100 keV. Indeed, electron elastic cross sections and elastic mean free paths are calculated using a corrected form of the independent atom method, taking into account the geometry of the biomolecule (SCAR macro). Moreover, the elastic scattering of electrons and positrons by atoms of the biomolecule was evaluated by means of relativistic (Dirac) partial wave analysis. Our calculated results are compared with theoretical data available in the literature in the absence of experimental data, in particular for positron. As a central result, our electron elastic cross sections are in good agreement with existing theoretical data in the range of 10 eV to 1 keV.

Keywords: elastic cross scrion, elastic mean free path, scar macro method, electron collision

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Authors: Rachel Wachtendonk, John Calambokidis, Kiirsten Flynn

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Large marine mammals can serve as an indicator of the overall state of the environment due to their long lifespan and apex position in marine food webs. Reductions in prey, driven by changes in environmental conditions can have resounding impacts on the trophic system as a whole; this can manifest in reduced fat stores that are visible on large whales. Poor health can lead to reduced survivorship and fitness, both of which can be detrimental to a recovering population. A non-invasive technique was used for monitoring blue whale health and for seeing if it changes with ocean conditions. Digital photographs of blue whales taken in the NE Pacific by Cascadia Research and collaborators from 2005-2018 (n=3,545) were scored for overall body condition based on visible vertebrae and body shape on a scale of 0-3 where a score of 0 indicated best body condition and a score of 3 indicated poorest. The data was analyzed to determine if there were patterns in the health of whales across years and whether overall poor health was related to oceanographic conditions and predictors of prey abundance on the California coast. The year was a highly significant factor in body condition (Chi-Square, p<0.001). The proportion of whales showing poor body condition (scores 2 & 3) overall was 33% but by year varied widely from a low of 18% (2008) to a high of 55% (2015). The only two years where >50% of animals had poor body condition were 2015 and 2017 (no other year was above 45%). The 2015 maximum proportion of whales in poor body condition coincide with the marine heat wave that affected the NE Pacific 2014-16 and impacted other whale populations. This indicates that the scoring method was an effective way to evaluate blue whale health and how they respond to a changing ocean.

Keywords: blue whale, body condition, environmental variability, photo-identification

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Authors: Tulika Bhattacharyya, Suhita C. Chatterjee

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West Bengal, one of the most rapidly ageing states in India, has inadequate structure for elder care. Therefore, there is an urgent need to improve elder care which involves focusing on different care settings where the elderly exists, like - Homes, Hospitals and Long-Term Care facilities (e.g. - Old Age Homes, Hospices). The study explores various elder care settings, with the intention to develop an understanding about them, and thereby generate comprehensive information about the entire spectrum of elder care in Kolkata. Empirical data are collected from the elderly and their caregivers in different settings. The tools for data collection are narratives, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions, along with field observations. Mixed method design is adopted to analyze the complexities of elder care in different set ups. The major challenges of elder care in private Homes are: architecturally inadequate housing conditions, paucity of financial support and scarcity of skilled caregivers. While the key factors preventing the Hospital and Long-Term Care Facilities from providing elder care services are inadequate policies and set governmental standards for elder care for the hospitalized elderly in various departments of the Hospital and the elderly residing in different kinds of Long Term Care Facilities. The limitations in each care setting results in considerable neglect and abuse of the elderly. The major challenges in elder care in West Bengal are lack of continuum between different care settings/ peripheral location of private Homes within public health framework and inadequate state Palliative policy- including narcotic regulations. The study suggests remedial measures to improve the capacity to deliver elder care in different settings.

Keywords: elder care settings, family caregiver, home care, geriatric hospital care, long term care facility

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Authors: Abdul Hamid Mir

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Tourism which is considered as the economic bonanza of Jammu and Kashmir plays an important role in the socio-economic development of Jammu and Kashmir. It is considered as a multi-segmented industry which provides different type of jobs like hotel managers, receptionists, guides, tour operators, travel agents, photographers, etc. Kashmir Valley which is one of the three meso regions (Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh) of Jammu and Kashmir State is famous all over the world due to its natural beauty. It attracts tourists from the every corner of the globe that is why it has earned name as ‘Paradise on Earth’ and ‘Switzerland of Asia’. It is full of natural treasure and gratifies the several types of tourists. The tourists are experiences fun, thrilling events and safe experience in Kashmir valley, but on the other hand, the adventure tourists are experiencing the physical risks, dangers and losses (injuries, death etc) too. Kashmir valley has greater potential to become one of the best adventure tourism destinations in the world. It offers immense opportunities to the adventurists to explore the wonderful exotic Himalayan ranges and landscapes, in addition, to facing the challenges of fast flowing rivers. Adventure tourism is at the initial stage of development in Kashmir valley and virgin areas needs to be explored and develop which in result will increase not only tourist arrivals but also enhance the business opportunities and economy of local people in Kashmir. Thus the exploitation of virginity of adventure tourism potentials in Kashmir valley is need of the hour. Therefore the present study highlights the potentials of adventure tourism in Kashmir valley and also focuses on the problems in the development of adventure tourism. Furthermore, the study extends to give various recommendations and suggestions in order to develop adventure tourism and broaden the base of tourist arrivals on one hand and sustained the growth on the other hand.

Keywords: adventure, Kashmir, tourism, tourists, potential, rafting, skiing

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Authors: Rohtash

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Academically, the concept of Justice in the literature is vast, and theories are voluminous and definitions are numerous but it is very difficult to define. Through the ages, justice has been evolving and developing reasoning that how individuals and communities do the right thing that is just and fair to all in that society. Justice is a relative and dynamic concept, not absolute one. It is different in different societies based on their morality and ethics. The idea of justice cannot arise from a single morality but interaction of competing moralities and contending perspectives. Justice is the conditional and circumstantial term. Therefore, justice takes different meanings in different contexts. Justice is the application of the Laws. It is a values-based concept in order to protect the rights and liberties of the people. It is a socially created concept that has no physical reality. It exists in society on the basis of the spirit of sharing by the communities and members of society. The conception of justice in society or among communities and individuals is based on their social coordination. It can be effective only when people’s judgments are based on collective reasoning. Their behavior is shaped by social values, norms and laws. People must accept, share and respect the set of principles for delivering justice. Thus justice can be a reasonable solution to conflicts and to coordinate behavior in society. The subject matter of distributive justice is the Public Good and societal resources that should be evenly distributed among the different sections of society on the principles developed and established by the State through legislation, public policy and Executive orders. The Socioeconomic transformation of the society is adopted by the constitution within the limit of its morality and gives a new dimension to transformative justice. Therefore, both Procedural and Transformative justice is part of Distributive justice. Distributive justice is purely an economic phenomenon. It concerns the allocation of resources among the communities and individuals. The subject matter of distributive justice is the distribution of rights, responsibilities, burdens and benefits in society on the basis of the capacity and capability of individuals.

Keywords: distributive justice, constitutionalism, institutionalism, constitutional morality

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Authors: Davoud Jafari, Paolo Di Marco, Alessandro Franco, Sauro Filippeschi

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This paper summarizes the results of an investigation into the heat pipe heat transfer for solar collector applications. The study aims to show the feasibility of a concentrating solar collector, which is coupled with a heat pipe. Particular emphasis is placed on the capillary and boiling limits in capillary porous structures, with different mesh numbers and wick thicknesses. A mathematical model of a cylindrical heat pipe is applied to study its behaviour when it is exposed to higher heat input at the evaporator. The steady state analytical model includes two-dimensional heat conduction in the HP’s wall, the liquid flow in the wick and vapor hydrodynamics. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by considering different design criteria and working conditions. Different wicks (mesh 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, and, 300), different porosities (0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9) with different wick thicknesses (0.25, 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 mm) are analyzed with water as a working fluid. Results show that it is possible to improve heat transfer capability (HTC) of a HP by selecting the appropriate wick thickness, the effective pore radius, and lengths for a given HP configuration, and there exist optimal design criteria (optimal thick, evaporator adiabatic and condenser sections). It is shown that the boiling and wicking limits are connected and occurs in dependence on each other. As different parts of the HP external surface collect different fractions of the total incoming insolation, the analysis of non-uniform heat flux distribution indicates that peak heat flux is not affecting parameter. The parametric investigations are aimed to determine working limits and thermal performance of HP for medium temperature SC application.

Keywords: screened heat pipes, analytical model, boiling and capillary limits, concentrating collector

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Authors: Lauren Dawson, Sean Comber, Richard Sandford, Alan Tappin, Bruce Stockley

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The West Dart River is underperforming for Salmon (Salmo salar) survival rates due to acidified pH troughs under the European Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). These troughs have been identified as being caused by historic acid rain pollution which is being held in situ by peat bog presence at site and released during flushing events. Natural recovery has been deemed unlikely by the year 2020 using steady state water chemistry models and therefore a program of monitored calcium carbonate (CaCO3) introductions are being conducted to eliminate these troughs, which can drop to pH 2.93 (salmon survival – pH 5.5). The river should be naturally acidic (pH 5.5-6) due to the granite geology of Dartmoor and therefore the CaCO3 introductions are under new methodology (the encasing of the CaCO3 in permeable sacks) to ensure removal should the water pH rise above neutral levels. The water chemistry and ecology are undergoing comprehensive monitoring, including pH and turbidity levels, dissolved organic carbon and aluminum concentration and speciation, while the aquatic biota is being used to assess the potential water chemistry changes. While this project is ongoing, results from the preliminary field trial show only a temporary, localized increase in pH following CaCO3 introductions into the water column. However, changes to the water chemistry have only been identified in the West Dart after methodology adjustments to account for flow rates and spate-dissolution, though no long-term changes have so far been found in the ecology of the river. However, this is not necessarily a negative factor, as the aim of the study is to protect the current ecological communities and the natural pH of the river while remediating only the detrimental pH troughs.

Keywords: anthropogenic acidification recovery, calcium carbonate introductions, ecology monitoring, water chemistry monitoring

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Authors: Neal Rupani

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Background: A surgical trainee has limited learning opportunities in the operating room in order to gain an ever-increasing standard of surgical skill, competency, and proficiency. These opportunities continue to decline due to numerous factors such as the European Working Time Directive and increasing requirement for service provision. It is therefore imperative to obtain the highest educational value from each educational opportunity. A measure that has yet to be validated in England on surgical trainees called the Operating Room Educational Environment Measure (OREEM) has been developed to identify and evaluate each component of the educational environment with a view to steer future change in optimising educational events in theatre. Aims: The aims of the study are to assess the reliability of the OREEM within England and to evaluate the surgical trainee’s objective perspective of the current operating room educational environment within one region within England. Methods: Using a quantitative study approach, data was collected over one month from surgical trainees within Health Education Thames Valley (Oxford) using an online questionnaire consisting of demographic data, the OREEM, a global satisfaction score. Results: 140 surgical trainees were invited to the study, with an online response of 54 participants (response rate = 38.6%). The OREEM was shown to have good internal consistency (α = 0.906, variables = 40) and unidimensionality, along with all four of its subgroups. The mean OREEM score was 79.16%. The areas highlighted for improvement predominantly focused on improving learning opportunities (average subscale score = 72.9%) and conducting pre- and post-operative teaching (average score = 70.4%). The trainee perception is most satisfactory for the level of supervision and workload (average subscale score = 82.87%). There was no differences found between gender (U = 191.5, p = 0.535) or type of hospital (U = 258.0, p = 0.099), but the learning environment was favoured towards senior trainees (U = 223.5, p = 0.017). There was strong correlation between OREEM and the global satisfaction score (r = 0.755, p<0.001). Conclusions: The OREEM was shown to be reliable in measuring the educational environment in the operating room. This can be used to identify potentially modifiable components for improvement and as an audit tool to ensure high standards are being met. The current perception of the education environment in Health Education Thames Valley is satisfactory, and modifiable internal and external factors such as reducing service provision requirements, empowering trainees to plan lists, creating a team-working ethic between all personnel, and using tools that maximise learning from each operation have been identified to improve learning in the future. There is a favourable attitude to use of such improvement tools, especially for those currently dissatisfied.

Keywords: education environment, surgery, post-graduate education, OREEM

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Authors: Kakali Bhadra

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Binding of small molecules to DNA and recently to RNA, continues to attract considerable attention for developing effective therapeutic agents for control of gene expression. This work focuses towards understanding interaction of harmalol, a dihydro beta-carboline alkaloid, with different nucleic acid motifs viz. double stranded CT DNA, single stranded A-form poly(A), double-stranded A-form of poly(C)·poly(G) and clover leaf tRNAphe by different spectroscopic, calorimetric and molecular modeling techniques. Results of this study converge to suggest that (i) binding constant varied in the order of CT DNA > poly(C)·poly(G) > tRNAphe > poly(A), (ii) non-cooperative binding of harmalol to poly(C)·poly(G) and poly(A) and cooperative binding with CT DNA and tRNAphe, (iii) significant structural changes of CT DNA, poly(C)·poly(G) and tRNAphe with concomitant induction of optical activity in the bound achiral alkaloid molecules, while with poly(A) no intrinsic CD perturbation was observed, (iv) the binding was predominantly exothermic, enthalpy driven, entropy favoured with CT DNA and poly(C)·poly(G) while it was entropy driven with tRNAphe and poly(A), (v) a hydrophobic contribution and comparatively large role of non-polyelectrolytic forces to Gibbs energy changes with CT DNA, poly(C)·poly(G) and tRNAphe, and (vi) intercalated state of harmalol with CT DNA and poly(C)·poly(G) structure as revealed from molecular docking and supported by the viscometric data. Furthermore, with competition dialysis assay it was shown that harmalol prefers hetero GC sequences. All these findings unequivocally pointed out that harmalol prefers binding with ds CT DNA followed by ds poly(C)·poly(G), clover leaf tRNAphe and least with ss poly(A). The results highlight the importance of structural elements in these natural beta-carboline alkaloids in stabilizing different DNA and RNA of various motifs for developing nucleic acid based better therapeutic agents.

Keywords: calorimetry, docking, DNA/RNA-alkaloid interaction, harmalol, spectroscopy

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Authors: Abu Afree Andalib, Rafiur Rahman, Md Mezbah Uddin

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The main objective of this work is to anatomize on the various parameters of AGM 88 missile anatomized using FSI module in Ansys. Computational fluid dynamics is used for the study of fluid flow pattern and fluidic phenomenon such as drag, pressure force, energy dissipation and shockwave distribution in water. Using finite element analysis module of Ansys, structural parameters such as stress and stress density, localization point, deflection, force propagation is determined. Separate analysis on structural parameters is done on Abacus. State of the art coupling module is used for FSI analysis. Fine mesh is considered in every case for better result during simulation according to computational machine power. The result of the above-mentioned parameters is analyzed and compared for two phases using graphical representation. The result of Ansys and Abaqus are also showed. Computational Fluid Dynamics and Finite Element analyses and subsequently the Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) technique is being considered. Finite volume method and finite element method are being considered for modelling fluid flow and structural parameters analysis. Feasible boundary conditions are also utilized in the research. Significant change in the interaction and interference pattern while the impact was found. Theoretically as well as according to simulation angled condition was found with higher impact.

Keywords: FSI (Fluid Surface Interaction), impact, missile, high viscous fluid, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics), FEM (Finite Element Analysis), FVM (Finite Volume Method), fluid flow, fluid pattern, structural analysis, AGM-88, Ansys, Abaqus, meshing, k-omega, turbulence model

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Authors: Lucien N. James, Mulala D. Simatele

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As a country that already faces hydrological and climatological challenges, South Africa’s socio-economic situation only complicates water resource management. This is observable through the state of rivers in the Gauteng Province such as the Hennops and Jukskei which are plagued by pollution from surrounding urban areas. While communities in the Hennops River basin contribute to its degradation, their potential in improved water resource management strategies is yet to be established. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the myriad of ways in which stakeholder and community engagement, mobilisation, as well as participation can be harnessed in contested urban spaces to facilitate a sustainable management system for river basins. Through meetings, clean-up campaigns, and a community workshop, the community of Tembisa and several key informants were engaged. The role of communities and their perceptions on an integrated and participatory approach to solving the Hennops River basin’s current pollution crisis were therefore explored. The findings of this study suggest that meaningful participation is tied to the level of awareness within communities as well as the amount of support attributed to active involvement through the initiatives of stakeholders such as NonGovernmental Organisations. For meaningful participation to take place, more needs to be done to shift communities away from a “bystander” position to a more active role. An approach to community engagement is therefore proposed arguing for the further support of stakeholder-driven initiatives and the raising of awareness around environmental challenges in poorer communities. The findings of this study demonstrate the value of engagement with stakeholders and communities, highlighting ways through which better water management and environmental governance can be achieved in South Africa.

Keywords: community participation, integrated water resource management, river basin management, stakeholder engagement

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Authors: Zahid Hussain, Nayyab Sultan

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This study describes the preparation of zinc oxide nanoparticles and their anti-diabetic effect individually and with the combination of Momordica charantia plant extract. This plant is termed bitter melon, balsam pear, bitter gourd, or karela. Blood glucose levels in mice were monitored in their random state before and after the administration of zinc oxide nanoparticles and plant extract. The powdered form of nanoparticles and the selected plant were used as an oral treatment. Diabetes was induced in mice by using a chemical named as streptozotocin. It is an artificial diabetes-inducing chemical. In the case of zinc oxide nanoparticles (3mg/kg) and Momordica charantia plant extract (500mg/kg); the maximum anti-diabetic effect observed was 70% ± 1.6 and 75% ± 1.3, respectively. In the case of the combination of zinc oxide nanoparticles (3mg/kg) and Momordica charantia plant extract (500mg/kg), the maximum anti-diabetic effect observed was 86% ± 2.0. The results obtained were more effective as compared to standard drugs Amaryl (3mg/kg), having an effectiveness of 52% ± 2.4, and Glucophage (500mg/kg), having an effectiveness of 29% ± 2.1. Results indicate that zinc oxide nanoparticles and plant extract in combination are more helpful in treating diabetes as compared to their individual treatments. It is considered a natural treatment without any side effects rather than using standard drugs, which shows adverse side effects on health, and most probably detoxifies in liver and kidneys. More experimental work and extensive research procedures are still required in order to make them applicable to pharmaceutical industries.

Keywords: albino mice, amaryl, anti-diabetic effect, blood glucose level, Camellia sinensis, diabetes mellitus, Momordica charantia plant extract, streptozotocin, zinc oxide nanoparticles

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Authors: Muzaffer Topgül, Ersi̇n Yilmaz

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One of the unknown aspects of Çanakkale Battles is that the importance and contributions of Mobile Gendarmarie Battalion have not been fully understood. It was because the battles of the troops which were deployed more in interior parts of Gallipoli Peninsula, and the contributions of battle on level tactical troops were not considered as much as the studies on strategical or operative level troops. When the operation field and battle plans are examined, instead of deploying along the coast to put the forces with a power at zero level landing on the coast out of action, the main battle components are seen to have deployed as strong reserves in the more inner areas. The negative effect of the field on the great trop operation reveals the need for time in order to use the intervention forces. ‘Time’ emerged as the main factor in victory as a result of giving intervention opportunity to the troops. While ordering his soldiers in Conkbayırı to die rather than fight, Liutenant Colonel Mustafa Kemal, the Commander of the 19th division, also emphasized the significance of time. In this respect, the contribution of Mobile Gendarmarie Battalion which saved time for the troops to intervene can be clearly seen. During the study, the memoirs and the works written by military institutions based on the record sources under the light of the notes taken during the trips to the region were used. By preventing the enemies from capturing the area, Mobile Gendarmerie Battalions had an important role in Battles of Kerevizdere, Kireçtepe and Alçıtepe which were of great importance among the battles. The success of these battalions was expressed with compliment by both Turkish and foreign commanders that participated in the war. During the battles the losses of armed forces commissioned to keep the security and order brought about the formation of the regions deficient in state authority.

Keywords: Canakkale battles, mustafa kemal, mobile gerdarmarie, Ottoman empire, time

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Authors: Jesika A. Walker, Mohammed Aswad, Guy Lacroix, Denis Cousineau

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There is a fundamental disconnect between the experience of time passing and the chronometric units by which time is quantified. Specifically, there appears to be no relationship between the passage of time judgments (PoTJs) and verbal duration estimates at short durations (e.g., < 2000 milliseconds). When a duration is longer than several minutes, however, evidence suggests that a slower feeling of time passing is predictive of overestimation. Might the length of a task moderate the relation between PoTJs and duration estimates? Similarly, the estimation paradigm (prospective vs. retrospective) and the mental effort demanded of a task (task demand) have both been found to influence duration estimates. However, only a handful of experiments have investigated these effects for tasks of long durations, and the results have been mixed. Thus, might the length of a task also moderate the effects of the estimation paradigm and task demand on duration estimates? To investigate these questions, 273 participants performed either an easy or difficult visual and memory search task for either eight or 58 minutes, under prospective or retrospective instructions. Afterward, participants provided a duration estimate in minutes, followed by a PoTJ on a Likert scale (1 = very slow, 7 = very fast). A 2 (prospective vs. retrospective) × 2 (eight minutes vs. 58 minutes) × 2 (high vs. low difficulty) between-subjects ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between task demand and task duration on PoTJs, p = .02. Specifically, time felt faster in the more challenging task, but only in the eight-minute condition, p < .01. Duration estimates were transformed into RATIOs (estimate/actual duration) to standardize estimates across durations. An ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between estimation paradigm and task duration, p = .03. Specifically, participants overestimated the task more if they were given prospective instructions, but only in the eight-minute task. Surprisingly, there was no effect of task difficulty on duration estimates. Thus, the demands of a task may influence ‘feeling of time’ and ‘estimation time’ differently, contributing to the existing theory that these two forms of time judgement rely on separate underlying cognitive mechanisms. Finally, a significant main effect of task duration was found for both PoTJs and duration estimates (ps < .001). Participants underestimated the 58-minute task (m = 42.5 minutes) and overestimated the eight-minute task (m = 10.7 minutes). Yet, they reported the 58-minute task as passing significantly slower on a Likert scale (m = 2.5) compared to the eight-minute task (m = 4.1). In fact, a significant correlation was found between PoTJ and duration estimation (r = .27, p <.001). This experiment thus provides evidence for a compensatory effect at longer durations, in which people underestimate a ‘slow feeling condition and overestimate a ‘fast feeling condition. The results are discussed in relation to heuristics that might alter the relationship between these two variables when conditions range from several minutes up to almost an hour.

Keywords: duration estimates, long durations, passage of time judgements, task demands

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Authors: Louise Moles, Steve Riley, Sarah D. Lichenstein, Marzieh Babaeianjelodar, Robert Kohler, Annie Cheng, Corey Horien Abigail Greene, Wenjing Luo, Jonathan Ahern, Bohan Xu, Yize Zhao, Chun Chieh Fan, R. Todd Constable, Sarah W. Yip

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Background: Risks for depression are myriad and include both genetic and brain-based factors. However, relationships between these systems are poorly understood, limiting understanding of disease etiology, particularly at the developmental level. Methods: We use a data-driven machine learning approach connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) to identify functional connectivity signatures associated with polygenic risk scores for depression (DEP-PRS) among youth from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) study across diverse brain states, i.e., during resting state, during affective working memory, during response inhibition, during reward processing. Results: Using 10-fold cross-validation with 100 iterations and permutation testing, CPM identified connectivity signatures of DEP-PRS across all examined brain states (rho’s=0.20-0.27, p’s<.001). Across brain states, DEP-PRS was positively predicted by increased connectivity between frontoparietal and salience networks, increased motor-sensory network connectivity, decreased salience to subcortical connectivity, and decreased subcortical to motor-sensory connectivity. Subsampling analyses demonstrated that model accuracies were robust across random subsamples of N’s=1,000, N’s=500, and N’s=250 but became unstable at N’s=100. Conclusions: These data, for the first time, identify neural networks of polygenic depression risk in a large sample of youth before the onset of significant clinical impairment. Identified networks may be considered potential treatment targets or vulnerability markers for depression risk.

Keywords: genetics, functional connectivity, pre-adolescents, depression

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