Search results for: economic loss score

Authors: Nartan Rajpriya

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City is a multiplex ecological system made up of social, economic and natural sub systems. Green space system is the foundation of the natural system. It is also suitable part of natural productivity in the urban structure. It is dispensable for constructing a high quality human settlements and a high standard ecocity. Ahmedabad is the fastest growing city of India. Today urban green space is under strong pressure in Ahmedabad city. Due to increasing urbanization, combined with a spatial planning policy of densification, more people face the prospect of living in less green residential environments. In this research analyzes the importance of available Green Space at Bodakdev Park, Ahmedabad, using remote sensing and GIS technologies. High resolution IKONOS image and LISS IV data has been used in this project. This research answers the questions like: • Temporal changes in urban green space area. • Proximity to heavy traffic or roads or any recreational facilities. • Importance in terms of health. • Availability of quality infrastructure. • Available green space per area, per sq. km and per total population. This projects incorporates softwares like ArcGIS, Ecognition and ERDAS Imagine, GPS technologies etc. Methodology includes the field work and collection of other relevant data while preparation of land use maps using the IKONOS imagery which is corrected using GPS.

Keywords: urban green space, ecocity, IKONOS, LISS IV

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Authors: Paulino V. Tavares, Ana L. Romao

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Public governance represents an articulated arrangement, dynamic and interactive, present in the exercise of authority aimed at strengthening the decision-making procedure in public administration with transparency, accountability, responsiveness and capable of to emerge control and social empowerment, to pursue and achieve the objectives efficiently and with the effectiveness desired by the collective, respecting laws and providing social, institutional and economic equility in society. With this, using a multidimensional approach with the application of three questionnaires to a universe of twenty Counselors of the Courts of Auditors (Brazil), twenty professionals of public administration (Brazil), twenty Government/Provincial Counselors (South Africa), and twenty South African professionals of public administration, the present work aims to capture what is the perception about the efficiency and equility of public policies in Brazil and South Africa. With this, up until now, 30 responses have been obtained, and the results indicate that, in Brazil, 65% affirm due to the inefficiency of public policies, 70% point out that they do not believe in the equility of these same policies. In South Africa, the results indicate that 45% believe in government efficiency, and, with regard to the equility of public policies, 65% do not believe. In Brazil, the research reveals at least three reasons for this result, that is, lack of planning, lack of clear objectives of public policies, and lack of information on the part of society, while in South Africa, so far, research has not identified a specific reason for this result.

Keywords: efficiency, equility, governance, public policy

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Authors: Paola Causin, Andrea Aspri, Alessandro Benfenati

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Diffuse Optical Tomography (DOT) is an emergent medical imaging technique which employs NIR light to estimate the spatial distribution of optical coefficients in biological tissues for diagnostic purposes, in a noninvasive and non-ionizing manner. DOT reconstruction is a severely ill-conditioned problem due to prevalent scattering of light in the tissue. In this contribution, we present our research in adopting hybrid knowledgedriven/data-driven approaches which exploit the existence of well assessed physical models and build upon them neural networks integrating the availability of data. Namely, since in this context regularization procedures are mandatory to obtain a reasonable reconstruction [1], we explore the use of neural networks as tools to include prior information on the solution. 2. Materials and Methods The idea underlying our approach is to leverage neural networks to solve PDE-constrained inverse problems of the form 𝒒 ∗ = 𝒂𝒓𝒈 𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒒 𝐃(𝒚, 𝒚̃), (1) where D is a loss function which typically contains a discrepancy measure (or data fidelity) term plus other possible ad-hoc designed terms enforcing specific constraints. In the context of inverse problems like (1), one seeks the optimal set of physical parameters q, given the set of observations y. Moreover, 𝑦̃ is the computable approximation of y, which may be as well obtained from a neural network but also in a classic way via the resolution of a PDE with given input coefficients (forward problem, Fig.1 box ). Due to the severe ill conditioning of the reconstruction problem, we adopt a two-fold approach: i) we restrict the solutions (optical coefficients) to lie in a lower-dimensional subspace generated by auto-decoder type networks. This procedure forms priors of the solution (Fig.1 box ); ii) we use regularization procedures of type 𝒒̂ ∗ = 𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒒 𝐃(𝒚, 𝒚̃)+ 𝑹(𝒒), where 𝑹(𝒒) is a regularization functional depending on regularization parameters which can be fixed a-priori or learned via a neural network in a data-driven modality. To further improve the generalizability of the proposed framework, we also infuse physics knowledge via soft penalty constraints (Fig.1 box ) in the overall optimization procedure (Fig.1 box ). 3. Discussion and Conclusion DOT reconstruction is severely hindered by ill-conditioning. The combined use of data-driven and knowledgedriven elements is beneficial and allows to obtain improved results, especially with a restricted dataset and in presence of variable sources of noise.

Keywords: inverse problem in tomography, deep learning, diffuse optical tomography, regularization

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Authors: Kamil Ganaev, Elina Vlasova, Andrei Shiryaev, Renat Akchurin

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De novo atrial fibrillation (AF) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is a common complication. To date, there are no data on the possible effect of diffuse lesions of coronary arteries on the incidence of postoperative AF complications. Methods. Patients operated on-pump under hypothermic conditions during the calendar year (2020) were studied. Inclusion criteria - isolated CABG and achievement of complete myocardial revascularization. Patients with a history of AF moderate and severe valve dysfunction, hormonal thyroid pathology, initial CHF(Congestive heart failure), as well as patients with developed perioperative complications (IM, acute heart failure, massive blood loss) and deceased were excluded. Thus 227 patients were included; mean age 65±9 years; 69% were men. 89% of patients had a 3-vessel lesion of the coronary artery; the remainder had a 2-vessel lesion. Mean LV size: 3.9±0.3 cm, indexed LV volume: 29.4±5.3 mL/m2. Two groups were considered: D (n=98), patients with diffuse coronary heart disease, and L (n=129), patients with local coronary heart disease. Clinical and demographic characteristics in the groups were comparable. Rhythm assessment: continuous bedside ECG monitoring up to 5 days; ECG CT at 5-7 days after CABG; daily routine ECG registration. Follow-up period - postoperative hospital period. Results. The Median follow-up period was 9 (7;11) days. POFP (Postoperative atrial fibrillation) was detected in 61/227 (27%) patients: 34/98 (35%) in group D versus 27/129 (21%) in group L; p<0.05. Moreover, the values of revascularization index in groups D and L (3.9±0.7 and 3.8±0.5, respectively) were equal, and the mean time Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) (107±27 and 80±13min), as well as the mean ischemic time (67±17 and 55±11min) were significantly longer in group D (p<0.05). However, a separate analysis of these parameters in patients with and without developed AF did not reveal any significant differences in group D (CPB time 99±21.2 min, ischemic time 63±12.2 min), or in group L (CPB time 88±13.1 min, ischemic time 58.7±13.2 min). Conclusion. With the diffuse nature of coronary lesions, the incidence of AF in the hospital period after isolated CABG definitely increases. To better understand the role of severe coronary atherosclerosis in the development of POAF, it is necessary to distinguish the influence of organic features of atrial and ventricular myocardium (as a consequence of chronic coronary disease) from the features of surgical correction in diffuse coronary lesions.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, diffuse coronary artery disease, coronary artery bypass grafting, local coronary artery disease

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Authors: Magda Gorczyca, Zofia Nocoń

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Past and current studies from different countries showed that river engineering leads to environmental degradation and extinction of many species - often those protected by local and international wildlife conservation laws. Through the years, the main focus of rivers utilization has shifted from industrial applications to recreation and wildlife preservation with a focus on keeping the biodiversity which plays a significant role in preventing climate changes. Thus an opportunity appeared to recreate flooding areas and natural habitats, which are very rare in the scale of Europe. Additionally, river restoration helps to avoid floodings and periodic droughts, which are usually very damaging to the economy. In this research, the biodiversity of dragonflies and ground beetles was analyzed in the context of plant communities and forest stands structure. Results were enriched with data from past and current literature. A comparison was made between two parts of the Odra river. A part where oxbow lake and riparian forest were separated from the river bed by embankment and a part of the river with floodplains left intact. Validity assessment of embankments relocation was made based on the research results. In the period between May and September, insects were collected, phytosociological analysis were taken, and forest stand structure properties were specified. In the part of the river not separated by the embankments, rare and protected species of plants were spotted (e.g., Trapanatans, Salvinianatans) as well as greater species and quantitive diversity of dragonfly. Ground beetles fauna, though, was richer in the area separated by the embankment. Even though the research was done during only one season and in a limited area, the results can be a starting point for further extended research and may contribute to acquiring legal wildlife protection and restoration of the researched area. During the research, the presence of invasive species Impatiens parviflora, Echinocystislobata, and Procyonlotor were observed, which may lead to loss of the natural values of the researched areas.

Keywords: carabidae, floodplains, middle Odra river, Odonata, oxbow lakes, riparian forests

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Authors: Mauricio Filho, Carina Castro

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The object of this project is to analyze long-time public agents that passed through several governments and see themselves in the position of having to deliberate with new agents, recently settled in the public administration. For theoretical ends, internal deliberation is understood as the one practiced on the public administration agencies, without any direct participation from the general public in the process. The assumption is: agents with longer periods of public service tend to step away from momentary political discussions that guide the current administration and seek to concentrate on institutionalized routines and procedures, making the most politically aligned individuals with the current government deliberate with less "passion" and more exchanging of knowledge and information. The theoretical framework of this research is institutionalism, which is guided by a more pragmatic view, facing the fluidity of reality in ways showing the multiple relations between agents and their respective institutions. The critical aspirations of this project rest on the works of professors Cass Sunstein, Adrian Vermeule, Philipp Pettit and in literature from both institutional theory and economic analysis of law, greatly influenced by the Chicago Law School. Methodologically, the paper is a theoretical review and pretends to be unfolded, in a future moment, in empirical tests for verification. This work has as its main analytical tool the appeal to theoretical and doctrinaire areas from the Juridical Sciences, by adopting the deductive and analytical method.

Keywords: institutions, state, law, agencies

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Authors: Ximena Rincon Castellanos

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The research target was analyzed the education public policy of Colombia according to the content of the right to education. One problematic element of that content is the principle of progressive implementation of economic, social and cultural rights. The research included a complete study of public documents and other papers; as well as, one focus group with former combatants in a city where is located one of some 'hogares de paz', which hosts these people after leaving the illegal group. This paper presents a critical approach to the public policy strategies to guarantee education to former combatants and its tension with the right to a progressive implementation. Firstly, education is understood as a technology level without considering higher education. Former combatant attends to SENA and private institutions, which offer technology education and it is counted by the Colombian Government as higher education. Therefore, statistics report a high level of attendance of excombatant to that education level, but actually, they do not expect to study a university carrier. Secondly, the budget approved has been invested in private institutions, despite public institutions are able to include this population and they need more money to strengthen the public offer, which has been considered as a better strategy to ensure education as a human right but not a good, by the special rapporteur on the right to education. As a consequence, the progressive implementation should be a guide to change and improve current strategies, invest the budget available into the public system of education in order to give former combatants the chance to access to universities.

Keywords: higher education, progressive implementation, public service, private offering and technology education

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Authors: Djouhou Fowe Michelle Carole

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In the last few decades, there have been considerable efforts by the international community to develop strategies that reduce global poverty and hunger. Despite the modest success in reducing food insecurity, there are still around 795 million people worldwide who remain undernourished, the majority of whom are in sub-Saharan Africa. In many of these impoverished communities, agriculture still remains one of the most important sectors in driving economic growth and reducing poverty. For the growing population, with higher food demand and fixed agricultural land, sustainable intensification is proposed as an important strategy to respond to the challenges of low yields, environmental degradation, and adaptation to climate change. Adoption of agroforestry technologies is increasingly being promoted as a promising solution. This study was conducted to determine the perceptions of the Cameroonian population and farmers on agroforestry. The methodology used was based on a survey to determine their knowledge level of agroforestry, their representation of its advantages and disadvantages, and the reasons that might motivate them whether or not to adopt agroforestry. Participants were randomly selected and received a questionnaire. Data were subjected to a descriptive analysis using SPSS software. The obtained results showed that less than 50% of the general population had already heard about agroforestry at least once; they have basic knowledge about this concept and its advantages. Farmers had been particularly sensitive to tree's food production function and seemed to value their environmental assets. However, various constraints could affect the possible adoption of agroforestry techniques.

Keywords: agroforestry, quality and sustainable agriculture, perceptions, advantages, limits

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Authors: Shweta Jha, Digambar Darekar, Krishna Kadam

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Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is one of the most common of psychiatric disorders. It has a wide range of symptoms, aetiologies and risk factors, and these reasons make MDD affect not only the primary patient, but also their family, caregivers and associates; by negatively impacting their self dignity, economic condition and self-confidence. Thus, it is important to help individuals suffering from MDD learn adaptive mechanism and deal effectively with their environment, with that aim this study focused on a comparative therapeutic intervention using Behaviour Activation (BA), Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy (REBT) and Waiting list control (WLC) for management of MDD. This study apart from enhancing personal skills will also help us understand which therapeutic method would be more beneficial in treating and prolonging relapse in patients with MDD in Indian population. Fifteen individuals following application of inclusion and exclusion criteria were selected as study samples. They were randomly assigned to three treatment groups. Ten sessions of therapy, forty-five minutes each according to the proposed sessions plan were conducted for each group. The individuals selected as samples were re–assessed after 2 months and 6 months post intervention. The overall result showed that individuals treated with BA and REBT showed more improvement in comparison to those in WLC.

Keywords: behaviour activation, major depressive disorder, rational emotive behaviour therapy, therapeutic intervention

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Authors: Sadeg Abdurahman, Claudio Stockle, James Harsh, Marc Beutel, Usama Zaher

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Pollution of the environment is a phenomenon which has taken a big part of importance of the world governments since the second half of the last century, this takes dangerous environmental, economic and social ranges dimensions especially after industrial advancement in industrialized country and good industrial expansion supported with modern technology and as chromium is known to be used in tannery factories. Chromium is considered a harm element to the environment due to its danger and transference through food, air, and water to the plants, animals and people. In this study the capacity of Arundo donax against chromium pollution was conducted. A. donax plants were grown-up under greenhouse conditions in pots contain nursery soil and feeding by Cr synthetic wastewater (0, 0.1, 1.0 and 2.0 mg L-1 ) for four weeks. Leaves, roots and stems dry matter production, color degree values, chlorophyll, growth parameters, and morphological characters were measured. The high Cr concentration was in roots was 1.15 mg kg-1 . Similarly, Cr concentration in stem was 0.469 mg kg-1 at 2.0 mg L-1 supplied Cr. In case of leaves, the maximum Cr concentration was 0.345 mg kg-1 at 2.0 g L-1 supplied Cr. The bioaccumulation and translocation factors was calculated. The macrophyte A. donax L. may be considered to be the most promising plant species in remediation of Cr-contaminated soil and wastewater due to its deeper root system as well as has higher efficiency to absorb chromium and other heavy metals as well.

Keywords: Arundo donax, Chromium pollution, heavy metals, phytoremediation, wastewater

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Authors: Sirajoddeen Al-Ameen

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Researchers seek to introduce development leading to technologies that address environmental problems and learn how to interact with stakeholders, managers, and policymakers for appropriate actions. One of the greatest strategies that African countries need to consider in realizing sustainable development is effective, efficient, credible, and lasting environmental sustainability and ensuring that future generations have access to natural resources to live in a better way. Therefore the coordinated set of participatory and continuously improving processes of analysis, capacity, planning, and investment seeks to integrate the social and environmental objectives of society, and this is not given priority in Nigeria. Environmental sustainability is a field where people can understand the natural environment and public works for sustainable development. Sustainable development requires shifts from ordinary ways of doing things to modern ways of executing activities ranging from low to high productivity, the creation and adoption of new strategies, new skills, and knowledge. It ensures a developed world with a secure and healthy environment for all; human beings, animals, and plants alike. This paper is to carry out a review of various literature sources to ascertain the potential strategy of environment and sustainable development reform using the content analysis method to discuss the environmental strategies towards sustainable development in Nigeria. The objective of this paper is to enable Nigerians to understand and have an orientation on how to manage environmental resources and avoid environmental impact on the ecosystem, and also to find sustainable solutions for environmental issues without compromising economic development.

Keywords: development, environment, strategies, sustainable

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Authors: Giga Phartenadze

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In the legal framework of regulation of electronic governance, those norms are considered which include measures for improvement of functions of public institutions and a complex of actions for raising their standard such as websites of public institutions, online services, some forms of internet interactions and higher level of internet services. An important legal basis for electronic governance in Georgia is Georgian Law about Electronic Communications which defines legal and economic basis for utilizing electronic communication systems in Georgia. As for single electronic basis for e-governance regulation, it can be said that it does not exist at all. The official websites of public institutions do not have standards for proactive spreading of information. At the same time, there is no common legal norm which would make all public institutions have an official website for public relations, accountability, publicity, and raising information quality. Electronic governance in Georgia needs comprehensive legal regulation. Public administration in electronic form is on the initial stage of development. Currently existing legal basis has a low quality for public institutions and officials as well as citizens and business. Services of e-involvement and e-consultation have also low quality. So far there is no established legal framework for e-governance. Therefore, a single legislative system of e-governance should be created which will help develop effective, comprehensive and multi component electronic systems in the country (central, regional, local levels). Such comprehensive legal framework will provide relevant technological, institutional, and informational conditions.

Keywords: law, e-government, public administration, Georgia

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Authors: Michalis Michael, Mauro Overend

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Buildings, in which we spend 87-90% of our time, act as a shelter protecting us from environmental conditions and weather phenomena. The building's overall performance is significantly dependent on the envelope’s glazing part, which is particularly critical as it is the most vulnerable part to heat gain and heat loss. However, conventional glazing technologies have relatively low-performance thermo-optical characteristics. In this regard, during winter, the heat losses due to the glazing part of a building envelope are significantly increased as well as the heat gains during the summer period. In this study, the contribution of an innovative glazing technology, namely Closed Cavity Façade (CCF) in improving energy efficiency and IEQ in office buildings is examined, aiming to optimize various design configurations of CCF. Using Energy Plus and IDA ICE packages, the performance of several CCF configurations and geometries for various climate types were investigated, aiming to identify the optimum solution. The model used for the simulations and optimization process was MATELab, a recently constructed outdoor test facility at the University of Cambridge (UK). The model was previously experimentally calibrated. The study revealed that the use of CCF technology instead of conventional double or triple glazing leads to important benefits. Particularly, the replacement of the traditional glazing units, used as the baseline, with the optimal configuration of CCF led to a decrease in energy consumption in the range of 18-37% (depending on the location). This mainly occurs due to integrating shading devices in the cavity and applying proper glass coatings and control strategies, which lead to improvement of thermal transmittance and g-value of the glazing. Since the solar gain through the façade is the main contributor to energy consumption during cooling periods, it was observed that a higher energy improvement is achieved in cooling-dominated locations. Furthermore, it was shown that a suitable selection of the constituents of a closed cavity façade, such as the colour and type of shading devices and the type of coatings, leads to an additional improvement of its thermal performance, avoiding overheating phenomena and consequently ensuring temperatures in the glass cavity below the critical value, and reducing the radiant discomfort providing extra benefits in terms of Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ).

Keywords: building energy efficiency, closed cavity façade, optimization, occupants comfort

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Authors: Aishwarya K. V., Shreya Sudesh

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Built along the edges of a 11th century CE man-made lake, the city of Bhopal has stood witness to historic layers dating back to Palaeolithic times; early and medieval kingdoms ranging from the Parmaras, Pratiharas to tribal Gonds; the Begum-Nawabs and finally became the Capital of Madhya Pradesh, post-Independence. The lake more popularly called the Upper Lake was created by the King Raja Bhoj from the Parmara dynasty in 1010 AD when he constructed a bund wall across the Kolans river. Atop this bund wall lies the Kamlapati Mahal - which was part of the royal enclosure built in 1702 belonging to the Gond Kingdom. The Mahal is the epicentre of development in the city because it lies in the centre of the axis joining the Old core and New City. Rapid urbanisation descended upon the city once it became the administrative capital of Madhya Pradesh, a newly-formed state of an Independent India. Industrial pockets began being set up and refugees from the Indo-Pakistan separation settled in various regions of the city. To cater to these sudden growth, there was a boom in infrastructure development in the late twentieth century which included precarious decisions made in terms of handling heritage sites causing the destruction of significant parts of the historic fabric. And this practice continues to this day as buffer/ protected zones are breached through exemptions and the absence of robust regulations allow further deterioration of urban heritage. The aim of the research is to systematically study in detail the effect of the urban infrastructure development of the city and its adverse effect on the existing heritage fabric. Through the paper, an attempt to study the parameters involved in preparing the Masterplan of the city and other development projects is done. The research would follow a values-led approach to study the heritage fabric where the significance of the place is assessed based on the values attributed by stakeholders. This approach will involve collection and analysis of site data, assessment of the significance of the site and listing of potential. The study would also attempt to arrive at a solution to deal with urban development along with the protection of the heritage fabric.

Keywords: heritage management, infrastructure development, urban conservation, urban heritage

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Authors: Jihene Bettaieb, Kaouther Ayouni, Ghassen Kharroubi, Rym Mallekh, Walid Hammemi, Afif Ben Salah, Henda Triki

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In Tunisia, the hepatitis A virus (HAV) represents a public health concern. Due to the progress in sanitation and socio-economic conditions, the epidemiology of HAV has shown dynamic changes over the past years. This study aimed to investigate the current seroprevalence of HAV antibodies (anti-HAV) among the residents of Thala, a rural setting in central-west Tunisia, to determine the age-specific seroprevalence for HAV infection and co-infection with hepatitis C and B virus. A total of 1379 subjects (mean age: 25.0 ± 17.3 years, 555 males/ 824 females) were recruited between January and June 2014. The study population included 95 individuals previously known as hepatitis C positive. Serum samples were collected and screened for the detection of IgG anti-HAV, HBsAg, and HBcAb by the Elisa Test. The overall anti- HAV seroprevalence was about 84.7%. There was no statistically significant difference between males and females. On the 1379 tested individual, 219 were positive for HBcAb, and 67 were positive for HBsAg. IgG anti- HAV were positive in 80.6% of HBsAg-positive patients (54 out of 67), 81.3% of HBcAb-positive patients (178 out of 219), and in 95.8% of HCV-positive patients (91 out of 95). HBV infection and HCV infection were statistically associated with a greater risk of positive anti-HAV antibody (p < 0.001). Our study revealed that Thala represents an intermediate endemicity level and that the introduction of vaccination against HAV in this region is recommended, especially for the hepatitis B or C infected person seronegative for HAV.

Keywords: coinfection, hepatitis A, seroprevalence, Tunisia

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Authors: Shubhangi Salokhe

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Agriculture encompasses crop and livestock production, forestry, and fisheries for food and non-food products. Farmers combine land, water, commercial inputs, labor, and their management skills into practices and systems that produce food and fibre. Harvesting of agricultural produce is either followed by the processing of fresh produce or storage for later consumption. All these activities result in a vast generation of waste in terms of crop residue or food waste. So, a large amount of agricultural waste is produced every year. Waste arising from food and agricultural sectors has the potential for vast applications. So, agricultural waste management is an essential component of sustainable agriculture. The major portion of the waste comes from the residues of crops on farms, food processing, livestock, aquaculture, and agro-industry waste. Therefore, management of these agricultural wastes is an important task, and it requires robust strategic planning. It can contribute to three pillars of sustainable agriculture development. It protects the environment (environmental pillar), enhances the livelihoods of farmers (economic pillar), and can contribute to increasing the sustainability of the agricultural sector (social pillar). This paper addresses the essential technological aspects, possible solutions, and sound policy concerns to accomplish long-term way out of agriculture waste management and to minimize the negative impact of waste on the environment. The author has developed a sustainable agriculture waste management model for improving the sustainability of agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, development, management, waste

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: A. Chandra, M. Arthur, L. Mize, A. Pomeroy-Stevens

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Background: Lower and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia face rapid urbanization resulting in both economic opportunities (the urban advantage) and emerging health challenges. Urban health risks are magnified in informal settlements and include infectious disease outbreaks, inadequate access to health services, and poor air quality. Over the coming years, urban spaces in Asia will face accelerating public health risks related to migration, climate change, and environmental health. These challenges are complex and require multi-sectoral and multi-stakeholder solutions. The Building Health Cities (BHC) program is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to work with smart city initiatives in the Asia region. BHC approaches urban health challenges by addressing policies, planning, and services through a health equity lens, with a particular focus on informal settlements and migrant communities. The program works to develop data-driven decision-making, build inclusivity through stakeholder engagement, and facilitate the uptake of appropriate technology. Methodology: The BHC program has partnered with the smart city initiatives of Indore in India, Makassar in Indonesia, and Da Nang in Vietnam. Implementing partners support municipalities to improve health delivery and equity using two key approaches: political economy analysis and participatory systems mapping. Political economy analyses evaluate barriers to collective action, including corruption, security, accountability, and incentives. Systems mapping evaluates community health challenges using a cross-sectoral approach, analyzing the impact of economic, environmental, transport, security, health system, and built environment factors. The mapping exercise draws on the experience and expertise of a diverse cohort of stakeholders, including government officials, municipal service providers, and civil society organizations. Results: Systems mapping and political economy analyses identified significant barriers for health care in migrant populations. In Makassar, migrants are unable to obtain the necessary card that entitles them to subsidized health services. This finding is being used to engage with municipal governments to mitigate the barriers that limit migrant enrollment in the public social health insurance scheme. In Indore, the project identified poor drainage of storm and wastewater in migrant settlements as a cause of poor health. Unsafe and inadequate infrastructure placed residents of these settlements at risk for both waterborne diseases and injuries. The program also evaluated the capacity of urban primary health centers serving migrant communities, identifying challenges related to their hours of service and shortages of health workers. In Da Nang, the systems mapping process has only recently begun, with the formal partnership launched in December 2019. Conclusion: This paper explores lessons learned from BHC’s systems mapping, political economy analyses, and stakeholder engagement approaches. The paper shares progress related to the health of migrants in informal settlements. Case studies feature barriers identified and mitigating steps, including governance actions, taken by local stakeholders in partner cities. The paper includes an update on ongoing progress from Indore and Makassar and experience from the first six months of program implementation from Da Nang.

Keywords: informal settlements, migration, stakeholder engagement mapping, urban health

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Authors: Md. Rakeb-Ul Islam, Daniel J. Schmidt, Jane M. Hughes

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Population connectivity plays an important role in the conservation and recovery of declining species. It affects genetic diversity, adaptive potential and resilience of species in nature. Loss of genetic variation can affect populations by limiting their ability to persist in stressful environmental conditions. Generally, freshwater fishes show higher levels of genetic structuring and subdivision among populations than those inhabiting estuarine or marine environments due to the presence of artificial (e.g. dams) and natural (e.g. mountain ranges) barriers to dispersal in freshwater ecosystems. The Australian smelt (Retropinnidae: Retropinna spp.) is a common freshwater fish species which is widely distributed throughout coastal and inland drainages in South - eastern Australia. These fish are found in a number of habitats from headwaters to lowland sites. They form large shoals in the mid to upper water column and inhabit deep slow – flowing pools as well as shallow fast flowing riffle-runs. Previously, Australian smelt consisted of two described taxa (Retropinna semoni and Retropinna tasmanica), but recently a complex of five or more species has been recognized based on an analysis of allozyme variation. In many area, they spend their entire life cycle within freshwater. Although most populations of the species are thought to be non-diadromous, it is still unclear whether individuals within coastal populations of Australian Retropinna exhibit diadromous migrations or whether fish collected from marine/estuarine environments are vagrants that have strayed out of the freshwater reaches. In this current study, the population structure and genetic differentiation of Australian smelt fish were investigated among eight rivers of South-East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. 11 microsatellite loci were used to examine genetic variation within and among populations. Genetic diversity was very high. Number of alleles ranged from three to twenty. Expected heterozygosity averaged across loci ranged from 0.572 to 0.852. There was a high degree of genetic differentiation among rivers (FST = 0.23), although low levels of genetic differentiation among populations within rivers. These extremely high levels of genetic differentiation suggest that the all smelt in SEQ complete their life history within freshwater, or, if they go to the estuary, they do not migrate to sea. This hypothesis is being tested further with a micro-chemical analysis of their otoliths.

Keywords: diadromous, genetic diversity, microsatellite, otolith

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Authors: Tabiti S. Tabiti, A. M. Jinadu, Daramola Japheth

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Urban insecurity is among the challenges militating against sustainable urban governance; in the first place it distorts the peace of urban areas making them unsafe. On the other hand it hinders the effective performance of urban functions. Urban security challenges manifest in different forms such as, street violence, theft and robbery, accidents of different types kidnapping, killings etc.. Efforts to address urban security challenges in Nigeria have been concentrated in legislative, law enforcement and the use of community vigilante groups. However in this study, the place of physical planning strategy through effective neighbourhood renewal as practiced in Mokola is presented as an effective complementary approach for addressing urban insecurity. On this backdrop, the paper recommends the need for gradual rehabilitation of urban slum neighborhoods by the state government in collaboration with World Bank and other development financiers. The local governments should be made autonomy in Nigeria so as to make them more responsible to the people. Other recommendations suggested in the paper include creating enabling environment that will promote economic empowerment and public enlightment on personal and community sanitation. It is certain that if these recommendations are adopted the challenge of urban insecurity will reduce significantly in Nigerian cities.

Keywords: neighbourhood renewal, pilot project, slum upgrading, urban security

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Authors: Jane Aleksoski

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The mode of inheritance and heterotic effect were studied in ten F1 crosses obtained by one-way diallel crossing between five parental genotypes: MV-1, P 76/86, Adiyaman, Basma-Djebel, and P 66 9 7. The following quantitative traits were studied: the number of leaves per stalk, length of leaves from the middle belt of the stalk, and yield of green leaf mass per stalk and per hectare. The trial was set up in the experimental field of Scientific Tobacco Institute - Prilep, using a randomized block design with four replications in the period 2018-2019. Traditional cultural practices were applied during the growing season of tobacco in the field. The aim of this work was to study the mode of inheritance of the quantitative traits, to detect heterosis in the F1 generation, and to assess its economic viability. Analysis of variance determined statistically significant differences in traits between parents and their hybrids in the two-year investigation. The most common way of trait inheritance is partial-dominant, then intermediate. The negative heterotic effect on the number of leaves per stalk has P 76/86 x P 66 9 7. The hybrids MV-1 x Adiyaman, P 76/86 x Basma-Djebel, P 76/86 x P 66 9 7, and Basma-Djebel x P 66 9 7 have a positive heterotic effect on the length of the leaves. Oriental hybrids, where one of the parents is variety P 66 9 7, have positive heterosis in the yield of green leaf mass per stalk. The investigation provides very useful guidance for future successive selection activities.

Keywords: dominance, heterosis, inheritance, tobacco.

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Authors: Jakub Bartus

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In general, composite steel and concrete structures present an effective structural solution utilizing full potential of both materials. As they have a numerous advantages on the construction side, they can reduce greatly the overall cost of construction, which is the main objective of the last decade, highlighted by the current economic and social crisis. The study represents not only an analysis of composite beams’ behaviour having web openings but emphasizes the influence of these openings on the total strain distribution at the level of steel bottom flange as well. The major investigation was focused on a change of structural performance with respect to various layouts of openings. Examining this structural modification, an improvement of load carrying capacity of composite beams was a prime object. The study is devided into analytical and numerical part. The analytical part served as an initial step into the design process of composite beam samples, in which optimal dimensions and specific levels of utilization in individual stress states were taken into account. The numerical part covered description of imposed structural issue in a form of a finite element model (FEM) using strut and shell elements accounting for material non-linearities. As an outcome, a number of conclusions were drawn describing and explaining an effect of web opening presence on the structural performance of composite beams.

Keywords: composite beam, web opening, steel flange, totalstrain, finite element analysis

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Authors: Pedro Paulo Galindo Francisco, Eli Dhadad Junior

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This study addresses the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle by introducing the latest machine learning techniques as alternatives for predicting the exchange rates. Using RMSE as a comparison metric, Meese and Rogoff discovered that economic models are unable to outperform the random walk model as short-term exchange rate predictors. Decades after this study, no statistical prediction technique has proven effective in overcoming this obstacle; although there were positive results, they did not apply to all currencies and defined periods. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence technologies have paved the way for a new approach to exchange rate prediction. Leveraging this technology, we applied five machine learning techniques to attempt to overcome the Meese-Rogoff puzzle. We considered daily data for the real, yen, British pound, euro, and Chinese yuan against the US dollar over a time horizon from 2010 to 2023. Our results showed that none of the presented techniques were able to produce an RMSE lower than the Random Walk model. However, the performance of some models, particularly LSTM and N-BEATS were able to outperform the ARIMA model. The results also suggest that machine learning models have untapped potential and could represent an effective long-term possibility for overcoming the Meese-Rogoff puzzle.

Keywords: exchage rate, prediction, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Igho Ekiugbo, Christos Papanagnou

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The energy sector continues to face increased scrutiny due to climate change challenges emanating from the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas. These climate change challenges have motivated industry practitioners and researchers alike to gain an interest in the way businesses operate. This paper aimed to investigate and assess how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are reducing the impact of their operations, especially those within their supply chains, by assessing the sustainability practices they have adopted and implemented as well as the benefits and challenges of adopting such practices. Data will be collected from SMEs operating across the downstream oil and gas sector in Nigeria using questionnaire surveys. To analyse the data, confirmatory factor analysis and regression analysis will be performed. This method is deemed more suitable and appropriate for testing predefined measurements of sustainable supply chain practices as contained in the extant literature. Preliminary observations indicate a consensus on the awareness of the sustainability concept amongst the target participants. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is among the first to investigate the sustainability practices of SMEs operating in the Nigerian oil and gas sector and will therefore contribute to the sustainability and circular economic literature.

Keywords: small and medium-sized enterprises, sustainability practices, supply chains, sustainable supply chain management, corporate sustainability, oil and gas, business performance

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Authors: Tero Huhtala, Minna Pikkarainen, Saila Saraniemi

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Information technology has long been used as an enabler of exchange for goods and services. Services are evolving from generic to personalized, and the reverse use of customer data has been discussed in both academia and industry for the past few years. This article presents the results of an empirical case study in the area of preventive health care services. The primary data were gathered in workshops, in which future personal data-based services were conceptualized by analyzing future scenarios from a business perspective. The aim of this study is to understand business model transformation in emerging personal data ecosystems. The work was done as a case study in the context of occupational healthcare. The results have implications to theory and practice, indicating that adopting personal data management principles requires transformation of the business model, which, if successfully managed, may provide access to more resources, potential to offer better value, and additional customer channels. These advantages correlate with the broadening of the business ecosystem. Expanding the scope of this study to include more actors would improve the validity of the research. The results draw from existing literature and are based on findings from a case study and the economic properties of the healthcare industry in Finland.

Keywords: ecosystem, business model, personal data, preventive healthcare

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Authors: Han Yan, Jieren Luo, Qiuhui Yan, Xiaoqing Li

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The thermal conductivity of porous materials is closely related to the thermal and moisture environment and the overall energy consumption of the building. The study of thermal conductivity of porous materials has great significance for the realization of low energy consumption building and economic construction building. Based on the study of effective thermal conductivity of porous materials at home and abroad, the thermal conductivity under a variety of different density of polystyrene board (EPS), plastic extruded board (XPS) and polyurethane (PU) and phenolic resin (PF) in wet state through theoretical analysis and experimental research has been studied. Initially, the moisture absorption and desorption properties of specimens had been discussed under different density, which led a result indicates the moisture absorption of four porous materials all have three stages, fast, stable and gentle. For the moisture desorption, there are two types. One is the existence of the rapid phase of the stage, such as XPS board, PU board. The other one does not have the fast desorption, instead, it is more stabilized, such as XPS board, PF board. Furthermore, the relationship between water content and thermal conductivity of porous materials had been studied and fitted, which figured out that in the wake of the increasing water content, the thermal conductivity of porous material is continually improving. At the same time, this result also shows, in different density, when the same kind of materials decreases, the saturated moisture content increases. Finally, the moisture absorption and desorption properties of the four kinds of materials are compared comprehensively, and it turned out that the heat preservation performance of PU board is the best, followed by EPS board, XPS board, PF board.

Keywords: porous materials, thermal conductivity, moisture content, transient hot-wire method

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Authors: Silvia Rahmita

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Entrepreneurial success is crucial for economic growth, competitiveness, and job creation, yet many entrepreneurs face failure due to various challenges. This paper explores the critical role of strategic thinking in mitigating entrepreneurial failure. Entrepreneurial competencies—encompassing knowledge, skills, and traits—are essential for creating and growing ventures. Despite these competencies, numerous entrepreneurs fail due to poor management, inadequate support, and ineffective policies. The paper categorizes entrepreneurial failures into financial, operational, market, product or service, strategic, leadership, legal, human capital, technological, and environmental failures. Each failure type can be addressed through strategic thinking, which involves foresight, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and hypothesis-driven processes. By integrating strategic thinking into their approach, entrepreneurs can enhance risk management, adapt to market changes, and sustain growth. This process involves setting clear goals, innovating products, and maintaining a competitive edge. Ultimately, strategic thinking provides a framework for proactive planning, adaptation, and continuous improvement, reducing the likelihood of failure and ensuring long-term success. Entrepreneurs who prioritize strategic thinking are better equipped to navigate the complexities of the business environment and achieve sustainable growth.

Keywords: entrepreneurial failure, strategic thinking, risk management, business failure

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Authors: Faouzi Ameur, Atef Belhaj Ali

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Located in the South-west of Saudi Arabia, Jeddah is more than a harbor. It is a big city of the Red Sea and the second town of Saudi Arabia, after Riyadh the capital. Jeddah profits from several economic assets due especially to its transit position towards the high sacred places of Islam like Mecca and Medina. During summer, this metropolis is transformed into a political capital and a tourist resort for foreigners and Saudis alike. The city of Jeddah was affected by serious sudden floods; two great ones took place in 2009, and in 2011. The human and material tools were considerable, since these events caused the death to hundreds of people, damaged thousands of buildings built on basins slopes, which, however had the authorizations necessary. To cope with these natural disasters, several urban hydraulic measures were undertaken like building dams and canals to collect surface waters. These urban measures aimed at the protection of inhabitants and belongings against the risks of floods as well as the interception and the drainage of streams. Although these protection measures are important, expensive, and effective, they are no longer enough or effective to cope with the evolution of the natural disasters that the city of Jeddah is constantly exposed to. These protective hydraulic measures did not make it possible to reach risk zero situations. They transferred the damages towards other zones. This paper purports to study the protection network systems in Jeddah and to understand their various impacts during floods on the city and on its inhabitants.

Keywords: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, urbanization, hydraulic protection

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Authors: Marwa Abida, Florian Gehring, Jamel Mars, Alexandre Vivet, Fakhreddine Dammak, Mohamed Haddar

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The demand for bio-based materials in semi-structural and structural applications is constantly growing to conform to new environmental policies. Among them, Plant Fiber Reinforced Composites (PFRC) are attractive for the scientific community as well as the industrial world. Due to their relatively low densities and low environmental impact, vegetal fibers appear to be suitable as reinforcing materials for polymers. However, the major issue of plant fibers and PFRC in general is their hydrophilic behavior (high affinity to water molecules). Indeed, when absorbed, water causes fiber swelling and a loss of mechanical properties. Thus, the environmental loadings (moisture, temperature, UV) can strongly affect their mechanical properties and therefore play a critical role in the service life of PFRC. In order to analyze the influence of conditioning at relative humidity on the behavior of flax fiber reinforced composites, a preliminary study on flax fabrics has been conducted. The conditioning of the fabrics in different humid atmospheres made it possible to study the influence of the water content on the hygro-mechanical behavior of flax reinforcement through mechanical tensile tests. This work shows that increasing the relative humidity of the atmosphere induces an increase of the water content in the samples. It also brings up the significant influence of water content on the stiffness and elongation at break of the fabric, while no significant change of the breaking load is detected. Non-linear decrease of flax fabric rigidity and increase of its elongation at maximal force with the increase of water content are observed. It is concluded that water molecules act as a softening agent on flax fabrics. Two kinds of typical tensile curves are identified. Most of the tensile curves of samples show one unique linear region where the behavior appears to be linear prior to the first yarn failure. For some samples in which water content is between 2.7 % and 3.7 % (regardless the conditioning atmosphere), the emergence of a two-linear region behavior is pointed out. This phenomenon could be explained by local heterogeneities of water content which could induce premature local plasticity in some regions of the flax fabric sample behavior.

Keywords: hygro-mechanical behavior, hygroscopy, flax fabric, relative humidity, mechanical properties

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Authors: Ruobing Liang, Jili Zhang, Chao Zhou

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A solar-heating-and-cooling (SHC) system, consisting of a hybrid photovoltaic/ thermal collector array, a hot water storage tank, and an absorption chiller unit is designed and modeled to satisfy thermal loads (space heating, domestic hot water, and space cooling). The system is applied for Dalian, China, a location with cold climate conditions, where cooling demand is moderate, while space heating demand is slightly high. The study investigates the potential of a solar system installed and operated onsite in a detached single-family household to satisfy all necessary thermal loads. The hot water storage tank is also connected to an auxiliary heater (electric boiler) to supplement solar heating, when needed. The main purpose of the study is to model the overall system and contact a parametric study that will determine the optimum economic system performance in terms of design parameters. The system is compared, through a cost analysis, to an electric heat pump (EHP) system. This paper will give the optimum system combination of solar collector area and volumetric capacity of the hot water storage tank, respectively.

Keywords: absorption chiller, solar PVT collector, solar heating and cooling, solar air-conditioning, parametric study, cost analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 414