Search results for: population aging
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6311

Search results for: population aging

5801 Sociological Research as a Tool of Social Assessment of the Territory in Urban Planning: In a Case of Kazakhstan

Authors: Alexey Abilov

Abstract:

Sociological research in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population in the last decade has become an essential part of a comprehensive assessment of the territory in the practice of urban planning in Kazakhstan. This method was successfully used for developing master plans of settlements, urban agglomerations, and projects of detailed planning of individual sections of the urban environment. Also, it greatly contributes to the objectification of design solutions, since in addition to the traditional expert multifactorial assessment of urban development territories by professional designers, they provide an opportunity to consider existing urban development problems at the local level from the inside, through the eyes of the living population. A comparison of two areas of assessment of the territory -expert and social- allows us to give a more balanced final assessment, which can serve as a strong basis for making correct design decisions. The author of the article shows this by the example of the social assessment of the territory of the Almaty urban agglomeration in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population conducted in order to assess the quality of the living environment of the population, preferences in place and forms of recreation, as well as to delimitation the boundaries of the agglomeration. At the same time, the author's methodology of qualitative and quantitative assessment of the territory divided into polling stations is used, based on a comparison of the percentage of respondents' responses to various questionnaire questions with the total number of respondents.

Keywords: social assessment of territory, comprehensive assessment, urban agglomeration, correct design decisions

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5800 Establishment and Aging Process Analysis in Dermal Fibroblast Cell Culture of Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)

Authors: Yemima Dani Riani, Anggraini Barlian

Abstract:

Green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of well known long-lived turtle. Its age can reach 100 years old. Senescence in green turtle is an interesting process to study because until now no clear explanation has been established about senescence at cellular or molecular level in this species. Since 1999, green turtle announced as an endangered species. Hence, establishment of fibroblast skin cell culture of green turtle may be material for future study of senescence. One common marker used for detecting senescence is telomere shortening. Reduced telomerase activity, the reverse transcriptase enzyme which adds TTAGGG DNA sequence to telomere end, may also cause senescence. The purpose of this research are establish and identify green turtle fibroblast skin cell culture and also compare telomere length and telomerase activity from passage 5 and 14. Primary cell culture made with primary explant method then cultured in Leibovitz-15 (Sigma) supplemented by 10% Fetal Bovine Serum (Sigma) and 100 U/mL Penicillin/Streptomycin (Sigma) at 30 ± 1oC. Cells identified with Rabbit Anti-Vimentin Polyclonal Antibody (Abcam) and Goat Polyclonal Antibody (Abcam) using confocal microscope (Zeiss LSM 170). Telomere length obtained using TeloTAGGG Telomere Length Assay (Roche) while telomerase activity obtained using TeloTAGGG Telomerase PCR ElisaPlus (Roche). Primary cell culture from green turtle skin had fibroblastic morphology and immunocytochemistry test with vimentin antibody proved the culture was fibroblast cell. Measurement of telomere length and telomerase activity showed that telomere length and telomerase activity of passage 14 was greater than passage 5. However, based on morphology, green turtle fibroblast skin cell culture showed senescent morphology. Based on the analysis of telomere length and telomerase activity, suspected fibroblast skin cell culture of green turtles is not undergo aging through telomere shortening.

Keywords: cell culture, chelonia mydas, telomerase, telomere, senescence

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5799 Main Cause of Children's Deaths in Indigenous Wayuu Community from Department of La Guajira: A Research Developed through Data Mining Use

Authors: Isaura Esther Solano Núñez, David Suarez

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research is to discover what causes death in children of the Wayuu community, and deeply analyze those results in order to take corrective measures to properly control infant mortality. We consider important to determine the reasons that are producing early death in this specific type of population, since they are the most vulnerable to high risk environmental conditions. In this way, the government, through competent authorities, may develop prevention policies and the right measures to avoid an increase of this tragic fact. The methodology used to develop this investigation is data mining, which consists in gaining and examining large amounts of data to produce new and valuable information. Through this technique it has been possible to determine that the child population is dying mostly from malnutrition. In short, this technique has been very useful to develop this study; it has allowed us to transform large amounts of information into a conclusive and important statement, which has made it easier to take appropriate steps to resolve a particular situation.

Keywords: malnutrition, data mining, analytical, descriptive, population, Wayuu, indigenous

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5798 Distribution of Spotted Fever Group in Ixodid Ticks, Domestic Cattle and Buffalos of Faisalabad District, Punjab, Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Sohail Sajid, Qurat-ul-Ain, Zafar Iqbal, Muhammad Nisar Khan, Asma Kausar, Adil Ejaz

Abstract:

Rickettsiosis, caused by a Spotted Fever Group Rickettsiae (SFGR), is considered as an emerging infectious disease from public and veterinary perspective. The present study reports distribution of SFGR in the host (buffalo and cattle) and vector (ticks) population determined through gene specific amplification through PCR targeting outer membrane protein (ompA). Tick and blood samples were collected using standard protocols through convenient sampling from district Faisalabad. Ticks were dissected to extract salivary glands (SG). Blood and tick SG pools were subjected to DNA extraction and amplification of ompA using PCR. Overall prevalence of SFGR was reported as 21.5% and 33.6 % from blood and ticks, respectively. Hyalomma anatolicum was more prevalent tick associated with SFGR as compared to Rhipicephalus sp. Higher prevalence of SFGR was reported in cattle (25%) population as compared to that of buffalo (17.07%). On seasonal basis, high SFGR prevalence was recorded during spring season (48.1%, 26.32%, 17.76%) as compared to winter (27.9%, 21.43%, 15.38%) in vector and host (cattle and buffalo respectively) population. Sequencing analysis indicated that rickettsial endo-symbionts were associated with ticks of the study area. These results provided baseline information about the prevalence of SFGR in vector and host population.

Keywords: Rickettsia, livestock, polymerase chain reaction, sequencing, ticks, vectors

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5797 Lack of Association between IL-10 Promoter Gene Polymorphisms and Tuberculosis Susceptibility in Thai Population

Authors: Manaphol Kulpraneet, Anirut Limtrakul, Surangrat Srisurapanon, Piyatida Tangteerawatana

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Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global health care disease world-wide. Control of the global TB epidemic has been impaired by the lack of an effective vaccine, by the emergence of drug resistant forms of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and by lack of sensitive and rapid diagnostics. Cytokines play a major role in defense against M. tuberculosis infection. Polymorphisms in the genes encoding various cytokines have been associated with tuberculosis susceptibility. Polymorphisms of the regulatory cytokine gene, the interleukin (IL)-10 is associated with the risk of tuberculosis (TB) in different populations. However, IL-10 gene polymorphism and susceptibility to TB in Thai is still unknown. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the common IL-10 promoter gene polymorphisms are associated with TB in Thai population. Forty eight patients with newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis were studied. DNA samples were extracted from leukocytes and used to investigate -1087A/G, -819C/T, -252C/A (rs1800896, rs1800871, rs1800872) in IL-10 gene using restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) methods. In this study, the genotype and allele frequencies of IL-10-1087A/G, -819C/T, -252C/A polymorphism did not significantly different between TB patients and healthy controls ((genotype: p=0.38, p=0.92, p=1; allele: p=0.57, p=0.77, p=0.89, respectively). The lack of association between common IL-10 promoter polymorphisms and TB susceptibility in this study may provide clue for better understanding of IL-10-1087A/G, -819C/T, -252C/A polymorphism and TB susceptibility in Thai population, which might facilitate the rationale design of vaccines. However, further studies in large scales population are required for confirmation.

Keywords: IL-10, cytokines, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), tuberculosis

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5796 Calculation of A Sustainable Quota Harvesting of Long-tailed Macaque (Macaca fascicularis Raffles) in Their Natural Habitats

Authors: Yanto Santosa, Dede Aulia Rahman, Cory Wulan, Abdul Haris Mustari

Abstract:

The global demand for long-tailed macaques for medical experimentation has continued to increase. Fulfillment of Indonesian export demands has been mostly from natural habitats, based on a harvesting quota. This quota has been determined according to the total catch for a given year, and not based on consideration of any demographic parameters or physical environmental factors with regard to the animal; hence threatening the sustainability of the various populations. It is therefore necessary to formulate a method for calculating a sustainable harvesting quota, based on population parameters in natural habitats. Considering the possibility of variations in habitat characteristics and population parameters, a time series observation of demographic and physical/biotic parameters, in various habitats, was performed on 13 groups of long-tailed macaques, distributed throughout the West Java, Lampung and Yogyakarta areas of Indonesia. These provinces were selected for comparison of the influence of human/tourism activities. Data on population parameters that was collected included data on life expectancy according to age class, numbers of individuals by sex and age class, and ‘ratio of infants to reproductive females’. The estimation of population growth was based on a population dynamic growth model: the Leslie matrix. The harvesting quota was calculated as being the difference between the actual population size and the MVP (minimum viable population) for each sex and age class. Observation indicated that there were variations within group size (24 – 106 individuals), gender (sex) ratio (1:1 to 1:1.3), life expectancy value (0.30 to 0.93), and ‘ratio of infants to reproductive females’ (0.23 to 1.56). Results of subsequent calculations showed that sustainable harvesting quotas for each studied group of long-tailed macaques, ranged from 29 to 110 individuals. An estimation model of the MVP for each age class was formulated as Log Y = 0.315 + 0.884 Log Ni (number of individual on ith age class). This study also found that life expectancy for the juvenile age class was affected by the humidity under tree stands, and dietary plants’ density at sapling, pole and tree stages (equation: Y= 2.296 – 1.535 RH + 0.002 Kpcg – 0.002 Ktg – 0.001 Kphn, R2 = 89.6% with a significance value of 0.001). By contrast, for the sub-adult-adult age class, life expectancy was significantly affected by slope (equation: Y=0.377 = 0.012 Kml, R2 = 50.4%, with significance level of 0.007). The infant to reproductive female ratio was affected by humidity under tree stands, and dietary plant density at sapling and pole stages (equation: Y = -1.432 + 2.172 RH – 0.004 Kpcg + 0.003 Ktg, R2 = 82.0% with significance level of 0.001). This research confirmed the importance of population parameters in determining the minimum viable population, and that MVP varied according to habitat characteristics (especially food availability). It would be difficult therefore, to formulate a general mathematical equation model for determining a harvesting quota for the species as a whole.

Keywords: harvesting, long-tailed macaque, population, quota

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5795 Special Single Mode Fiber Tests of Polarization Mode Dispersion Changes in a Harsh Environment

Authors: Jan Bohata, Stanislav Zvanovec, Matej Komanec, Jakub Jaros, David Hruby

Abstract:

Even though there is a rapid development in new optical networks, still optical communication infrastructures remain composed of thousands of kilometers of aging optical cables. Many of them are located in a harsh environment which contributes to an increased attenuation or induced birefringence of the fibers leading to the increase of polarization mode dispersion (PMD). In this paper, we report experimental results from environmental optical cable tests and characterization in the climate chamber. We focused on the evaluation of optical network reliability in a harsh environment. For this purpose, a special thermal chamber was adopted, targeting to the large temperature changes between -60 °C and 160 C° with defined humidity. Single mode optical cable 230 meters long, having six tubes and a total number of 72 single mode optical fibers was spliced together forming one fiber link, which was afterward tested in the climate chamber. The main emphasis was put to the polarization mode dispersion (PMD) changes, which were evaluated by three different PMD measuring methods (general interferometry technique, scrambled state-of-polarization analysis and polarization optical time domain reflectometer) in order to fully validate obtained results. Moreover, attenuation and chromatic dispersion (CD), as well as the PMD, were monitored using 17 km long single mode optical cable. Results imply a strong PMD dependence on thermal changes, imposing the exceeding 200 % of its value during the exposure to extreme temperatures and experienced more than 20 dB insertion losses in the optical system. The derived statistic is provided in the paper together with an evaluation of such as optical system reliability, which could be a crucial tool for the optical network designers. The environmental tests are further taken in context to our previously published results from long-term monitoring of fundamental parameters within an optical cable placed in a harsh environment in a special outdoor testbed. Finally, we provide a correlation between short-term and long-term monitoring campaigns and statistics, which are necessary for optical network safety and reliability.

Keywords: optical fiber, polarization mode dispersion, harsh environment, aging

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5794 Rapid Flood Damage Assessment of Population and Crops Using Remotely Sensed Data

Authors: Urooj Saeed, Sajid Rashid Ahmad, Iqra Khalid, Sahar Mirza, Imtiaz Younas

Abstract:

Pakistan, a flood-prone country, has experienced worst floods in the recent past which have caused extensive damage to the urban and rural areas by loss of lives, damage to infrastructure and agricultural fields. Poor flood management system in the country has projected the risks of damages as the increasing frequency and magnitude of floods are felt as a consequence of climate change; affecting national economy directly or indirectly. To combat the needs of flood emergency, this paper focuses on remotely sensed data based approach for rapid mapping and monitoring of flood extent and its damages so that fast dissemination of information can be done, from local to national level. In this research study, spatial extent of the flooding caused by heavy rains of 2014 has been mapped by using space borne data to assess the crop damages and affected population in sixteen districts of Punjab. For this purpose, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to daily mark the flood extent by using Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI). The highest flood value data was integrated with the LandScan 2014, 1km x 1km grid based population, to calculate the affected population in flood hazard zone. It was estimated that the floods covered an area of 16,870 square kilometers, with 3.0 million population affected. Moreover, to assess the flood damages, Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) aided with spectral signatures was applied on Landsat image to attain the thematic layers of healthy (0.54 million acre) and damaged crops (0.43 million acre). The study yields that the population of Jhang district (28% of 2.5 million population) was affected the most. Whereas, in terms of crops, Jhang and Muzzafargarh are the ‘highest damaged’ ranked district of floods 2014 in Punjab. This study was completed within 24 hours of the peak flood time, and proves to be an effective methodology for rapid assessment of damages due to flood hazard

Keywords: flood hazard, space borne data, object based image analysis, rapid damage assessment

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5793 Effect of Oxidative Stress on Glutathione Reductase Activity of Escherichia coli Clinical Isolates from Patients with Urinary Tract Infection

Authors: Fariha Akhter Chowdhury, Sabrina Mahboob, Anamika Saha, Afrin Jahan, Mohammad Nurul Islam

Abstract:

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is frequently experienced by the female population where the prevalence increases with aging. Escherichia coli, one of the most common UTI causing organisms, retains glutathione defense mechanism that aids the organism to withstand the harsh physiological environment of urinary tract, host oxidative immune response and even to affect antibiotic-mediated cell death and the emergence of resistance. In this study, we aimed to investigate the glutathione reductase activity of uropathogenic E. coli (UPEC) by observing the reduced glutathione (GSH) level alteration under stressful condition. Urine samples of 58 patients with UTI were collected. Upon isolation and identification, 88% of the samples presented E. coli as UTI causing organism among which randomly selected isolates (n=9), obtained from urine samples of female patients, were considered for this study. E. coli isolates were grown under normal and stressful conditions where H₂O₂ was used as the stress-inducing agent. GSH level estimation of the isolates in both conditions was carried out based on the colorimetric measurement of 5,5'-dithio-bis (2-nitrobenzoic acid) (DTNB) and GSH reaction product using microplate reader assay. The GSH level of isolated E. coli sampled from adult patients decreased under stress compared to normal condition (p = 0.011). On the other hand, GSH production increased markedly in samples that were collected from elderly subjects (p = 0.024). A significant partial correlation between age and change of GSH level was found as well (p = 0.007). This study may help to reveal ways for better understanding of E. coli pathogenesis of UTI prevalence in elderly patients.

Keywords: Escherichia coli, glutathione reductase activity, oxidative stress, reduced glutathione (GSH), urinary tract infection (UTI)

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5792 Reconsidering Taylor’s Law with Chaotic Population Dynamical Systems

Authors: Yuzuru Mitsui, Takashi Ikegami

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The exponents of Taylor’s law in deterministic chaotic systems are computed, and their meanings are intensively discussed. Taylor’s law is the scaling relationship between the mean and variance (in both space and time) of population abundance, and this law is known to hold in a variety of ecological time series. The exponents found in the temporal Taylor’s law are different from those of the spatial Taylor’s law. The temporal Taylor’s law is calculated on the time series from the same locations (or the same initial states) of different temporal phases. However, with the spatial Taylor’s law, the mean and variance are calculated from the same temporal phase sampled from different places. Most previous studies were done with stochastic models, but we computed the temporal and spatial Taylor’s law in deterministic systems. The temporal Taylor’s law evaluated using the same initial state, and the spatial Taylor’s law was evaluated using the ensemble average and variance. There were two main discoveries from this work. First, it is often stated that deterministic systems tend to have the value two for Taylor’s exponent. However, most of the calculated exponents here were not two. Second, we investigated the relationships between chaotic features measured by the Lyapunov exponent, the correlation dimension, and other indexes with Taylor’s exponents. No strong correlations were found; however, there is some relationship in the same model, but with different parameter values, and we will discuss the meaning of those results at the end of this paper.

Keywords: chaos, density effect, population dynamics, Taylor’s law

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5791 Trends of Cancer Patients Who Underwent Curative/radical Radiotherapy at Radiotherapy Center, Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital

Authors: Emeshaw Damtew Zebene, Edom Seife, Hagos Tesfay, Gurja Belay

Abstract:

Background: cancer incidence and mortality has grown rapidly throughout the world. Aging of the population, urbanization, physical inactivity, economic growth followed by smoking and drinking contributed a lot for the increased incidence of cancer all over the globe. Objective: the aim of this study was to assess a one-year trend of cancer patients who underwent curative/radical radiotherapy at radiotherapy center, Tikur Anbessa specialized hospital, Ethiopia. Methodology: We performed a prospective descriptive study of cancer patients treated with LINAC at Tikur Anbessa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from April 2021- March 2022. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. Descriptive statistics and chi-square results were generated using SPSS version 24. The level of significance was obtained at 0.05. Results: Sixty-four (64) curative/radical patients-44 females and 20 males were analyzed. Majority, 27(42.2%), of the patients age range from 45 to 64, and 45(70%) of them were urban residents where a group of higher gynecologic cancer was observed.78% of the patients were with locally advanced cancer, and 54(84.4%) of them had no awareness about cancer. Generally, head & neck cancer were found the most prevalent cancer 20(31.3%), and the leading cause of cancer among women was cervical cancer 17(38.6%), where about half 7(15.9%) of them were HIV positive. Conclusion: Our finding revealed that most of curative/radical patients presented at a locally advanced stage of the disease. Hence, maintaining the already available teletherapy machines and installing additional radiotherapy centers may help in treating the patients at the early stage of the disease. Since almost all of our study participants did not have information about cancer, awareness raising mechanisms should be done. Additionally, understanding differences in cancer incidence between urban and rural is important. Key words: Cancer, Curative/radical, Radiotherapy, Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital

Keywords: cancer, curative/radical, radiotherapy, tkur anbessa specialized hospital

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5790 Population Dynamics and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Chilalo-Galama Mountain Range, Ethiopia

Authors: Yusuf Jundi Sado

Abstract:

Changes in land use are mostly credited to human actions that result in negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of land use and land cover changes for sustainable natural resources planning and management. Chilalo-Galama Mountain Range, Ethiopia. This study used Thematic Mapper 05 (TM) for 1986, 2001 and Landsat 8 (OLI) data 2017. Additionally, data from the Central Statistics Agency on human population growth were analyzed. Semi-Automatic classification plugin (SCP) in QGIS 3.2.3 software was used for image classification. Global positioning system, field observations and focus group discussions were used for ground verification. Land Use Land Cover (LU/LC) change analysis was using maximum likelihood supervised classification and changes were calculated for the 1986–2001 and the 2001–2017 and 1986-2017 periods. The results show that agricultural land increased from 27.85% (1986) to 44.43% and 51.32% in 2001 and 2017, respectively with the overall accuracies of 92% (1986), 90.36% (2001), and 88% (2017). On the other hand, forests decreased from 8.51% (1986) to 7.64 (2001) and 4.46% (2017), and grassland decreased from 37.47% (1986) to 15.22%, and 15.01% in 2001 and 2017, respectively. It indicates for the years 1986–2017 the largest area cover gain of agricultural land was obtained from grassland. The matrix also shows that shrubland gained land from agricultural land, afro-alpine, and forest land. Population dynamics is found to be one of the major driving forces for the LU/LU changes in the study area.

Keywords: Landsat, LU/LC change, Semi-Automatic classification plugin, population dynamics, Ethiopia

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5789 Catastrophic Spending on Health: A Determinant of Access to Health Care by Migrant Slum Population

Authors: Saira Mehnaz, Ali Jafar Abedi, Shazia Farooq Fazli, Sakeena Mushfiq, Zulfia Khan, M. Athar Ansari

Abstract:

Introduction: Public health spending is a necessity in an underdeveloped country like India. The people are already suffering from poverty and that clubbed with out of pocket expenditure leads them to a very catastrophic situation, reducing the overall access to healthcare. Objectives: This study was designed to determine the usual source of medical care opted, the illness pattern, the expenditure incurred on illness and its source of procurement by the study population. It also intended to assess this expenditure as a determinant of access to health care. Methodology: Cities like Aligarh, which are classified as B grade cities in India are thought to be ripe sites for getting livelihood and hence are almost half filled with migrants living in urban slums. A cross sectional study was done to study the newer slum pockets. 3409 households with a population of 16,978 were studied with the help of pretested questionnaire; SPSS 20 was used for statistical analysis. Results and Conclusions: In our study, we found that almost all the households suffered from catastrophic health expenditure. The study population, which was already vulnerable owing to their low socio-economic and migrant status was further being forced with into poverty and indebtedness on account of expenditure on illness. This lead to a significant decrease in access to health. National health financing systems should be designed to protect households from financial catastrophe, by reducing out-of-pocket spending.

Keywords: access to healthcare, catastrophic health expenditure, new urban slums, out of pocket expenditure

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5788 Smartphone Addiction and Reaction Time in Geriatric Population

Authors: Anjali N. Shete, G. D. Mahajan, Nanda Somwanshi

Abstract:

Context: Smartphones are the new generation of mobile phones; they have emerged over the last few years. Technology has developed so much that it has become part of our life and mobile phones are one of them. These smartphones are equipped with the capabilities to display photos, play games, watch videos and navigation, etc. The advances have a huge impact on many walks of life. The adoption of new technology has been challenging for the elderly. But, the elder population is also moving towards digitally connected lives. As age advances, there is a decline in the motor and cognitive functions of the brain, and hence the reaction time is affected. The study was undertaken to assess the usefulness of smartphones in improving cognitive functions. Aims and Objectives: The aim of the study was to observe the effects of smartphone addiction on reaction time in elderly population Material and Methods: This is an experimental study. 100 elderly subjects were enrolled in this study randomly from urban areas. They all were using smartphones for several hours a day. They were divided into two groups according to the scores of the mobile phone addiction scale (MPAS). Simple reaction time was estimated by the Ruler drop method. The reaction time was then calculated for each subject in both groups. The data were analyzed using mean, standard deviation, and Pearson correlation test. Results: The mean reaction time in Group A is 0.27+ 0.040 and in Group B is 0.20 + 0.032. The values show a statistically significant change in reaction time. Conclusion: Group A with a high MPAS score has a low reaction time compared to Group B with a low MPAS score. Hence, it can be concluded that the use of smartphones in the elderly is useful, delaying the neurological decline, and smarten the brain.

Keywords: smartphones, MPAS, reaction time, elderly population

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5787 The Development of the Spatial and Hierarchic Urban Structure of the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Population in Israel

Authors: Lee Cahaner, Nissim Leon

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The segregation of populations is one of the main axes in the research of urban geography, which refers to the spatial and functional relationships between settlements. In Israel, this phenomenon has its unique expression in the spatial processes concerning the ultra-orthodox population. This population holds a set of interactions within itself as well as with the non-orthodox surrounding population because of historical and contemporary motivations on its which strength depends on its homogeneousness and separation. Its demographic growth rate and the internal social processes that the ultra-orthodox society undergoes create a new image of the ultra-orthodox concentration and its location in the Israeli space. The goals of the present study have also been defined with the express intention of filling the scholarly vacuum noted above: firstly, to discuss the development of the Israeli ultra-Orthodox sector’s hierarchical and spatial structure as of 2015, in light of the principles and mechanisms that guide it and vis-à-vis the general population’s hierarchical locality system; secondly, to map Israel’s ultra-Orthodox population, with attention to its physical boundaries, its subdivisions (Hassidic, Lithuanian, Sephardic) and the geographical and demographic processes that have characterized it in recent years; and thirdly, to shed light on the interactions between ultra-Orthodox localities via several different parameters, e.g. migration, education, transportation, employment, consumerism and community services. In order to understand the changes in ultra-Orthodox geographic distribution and the social processes that these changes have generated, a number of research activities were conducted during the course of this study− notably, gathering and assembling material from earlier academic studies, newspaper advertisements, state and private archives; in-depth interviews with major figures in the ultra-Orthodox community and others who come into contact with it; tours of the core areas of ultra-Orthodox settlement; and gathering quantitative and qualitative data from the statistical reports of governmental and other bodies. In addition, a multi-participant (2400-respondent) quantitative survey was conducted among residents of the new ultra-Orthodox cities, designed to elucidate the attributes and spatial attitudes of the residents− as a means of tracing and understanding this new settlement pattern within ultra-Orthodox space. A major portion of the quantitative and qualitative material was processed to form a system of maps that visually describe the distribution of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox population.

Keywords: migration, new cities, segregation, ultra-orthodox

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5786 The Restrictions of the Householder’s ‘Double Two-Thirds Principles’ in Decision-Making for Elevators Addition to Existing Condominium

Authors: Haifeng Shi, Kun Song, Yili Zhao

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In China, with the extensive promotion of the ‘aging in place’ pension policy as the background, most of the elders will choose to remain in their current homes and communities, finding out of preference or necessity that they will need to remodel their homes to fit their changing needs. This generation elder born in the 1960s to 1970s almost live in the same form of housing-condominium built from 1982 to 2012. Based on the survey of existing multi-family housing, especially in Tianjin, it is found that the current ‘double two-thirds principles’ is becoming the threshold for modification to existing house, particularly in the project of elevators addition to existing condominium (built from 1982 to 2016 without elevators below 6 floors according to the previous building code). Firstly, this article concludes the local policies of elevator addition nationwide, most of which has determined the importance and necessity of the community-based self-organization principle in the operation of the elevator addition. Secondly, by comparing the three existing community management systems (owners' congress, property management system and community committee) in instances, find that the community-based ‘two-thirds’ principle is not conducive to implement for multi-owned property renovation in the community or common accessibility modification in the building. However, analysis the property and other community management related laws, pointing out the shortcomings of the existing community-based ‘two-thirds’ decision-making norms. The analyzation showed that the unit-based and ‘100% principle’ method is more capable of common accessibility in the condominium in China. Differing from existing laws, the unit-based principle will be effective for the process of decision-making and ‘100% principle’ will protect closely profit-related householders for condominium modification in the multi-owned area. These three aspects of the analysis suggest that the establishment of the unit-based self-organization mechanism is a preferred and inevitable method to solve the problem of elevators addition to the existing condominium in China.

Keywords: aging in place, condominium, modification, multi own

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5785 Studies on Population and Management of Melon Fruit Fly Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett) in Vegetables Agro-Ecosystem in District Hyderabada

Authors: Abro Zain-Ul-Aabdin, Naheed Baloch, Khuhro Niaz Hussain, Waseem Akbar, Noor Abid Saeed

Abstract:

The Melon Fruit Fly Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coq.) belongs to family: Tephritidae order: Diptera and is distributed throughout the vegetable growing areas of Pakistan. The B. cucurbitae is injurious pest of more than 125 species of the vegetables throughout the world. In the present studies we investigated the population of this important pest in cucurbit crops and influence of abiotic parameters such as: temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. The study was carried out at two different locations of District, Hyderabad. The locations were Jeay Shah and Dehli farm where three cucurbit vegetable crops, such as bottle gourd (Lagenaria siceraria), bitter gourd (Momordica charantia) and ridge gourd (Luffa acutangula) were grown. The traps were baited with Cue-lure and deployed at three meter height in the all locations from 01.01.2015 and up to 30.06.2015. Results revealed that overall significantly higher (P < 0.05) population was recorded on L.acutangula, M.charantia and L.siceraria (130.64, 127.21, and 122.91), respectively. However, significantly higher (P < 0.05) population was observed on L. acutangula (339.4±22.59) during the 4th week of May 2015 followed by M. charantia (334.6±22.76) L. siceraria (333.2±20.13). Whereas; lowest population was recorded on L. siceraria (5.8±1.39) followed by L. acutangula and M. charantia (6.8±0.80g, 8.0±1.30) respectively during the 4th week of January. The population of B. cucurbitae was significantly correlated with the temperature while negatively correlated with relative humidity. Meanwhile in the parasitism preference experiment pupal parasitoid Dirhinus giffardii showed significantly higher (P<0.05) parasitization when the pupae of B.cucurbitae were reared on Cucumber (Cucumis sativus) (24.8±0.48) and also female were yielded from pupae reared on C.sativus under no choice experiment. Similarly higher parasitization and female were recovered when pupae were supplied C. sativus under free choice experiment. Results of the present investigation would be useful in developing a sustainable pest management strategy in the vegetable agro-ecosystem.

Keywords: Dirhinus giffardii, Bactrocera cucurbitae Cucumis sativus, diptera, free choice, parasitization

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5784 The Impact of City Mobility on Propagation of Infectious Diseases: Mathematical Modelling Approach

Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

Abstract:

Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

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5783 The Links between Cardiovascular Risk and Psychological Wellbeing in Elderly

Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute

Abstract:

The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.

Keywords: psychological well-being, cardiovascular disease, elderly, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 360
5782 Development of Microsatellite Markers for Genetic Variation Analysis in House Cricket, Acheta domesticus

Authors: Yash M. Gupta, Kittisak Buddhachat, Surin Peyachoknagul, Somjit Homchan

Abstract:

The house cricket, Acheta domesticus is one of the commonly found species of field crickets. Although it is very commonly used as food and feed, the genomic information of house cricket is still missing for genetic investigation. DNA sequencing technology has evolved over the decades, and it has also revolutionized the molecular marker development for genetic analysis. In the present study, we have sequenced the whole genome of A. domesticus using illumina platform based HiSeq X Ten sequencing technology for searching simple sequence repeats (SSRs) in DNA to develop polymorphic microsatellite markers for population genetic analysis. A total of 112,157 SSRs with primer pairs were identified, 91 randomly selected SSRs used to check DNA amplification, of which nine primers were polymorphic. These microsatellite markers have shown cross-amplification with other three species of crickets which are Gryllus bimaculatus, Gryllus testaceus and Brachytrupes portentosus. These nine polymorphic microsatellite markers were used to check genetic variation for forty-five individuals of A. domesticus, Phitsanulok population, Thailand. For nine loci, the number of alleles was ranging from 5 to 15. The observed heterozygosity was ranged from 0.4091 to 0.7556. These microsatellite markers will facilitate population genetic analysis for future studies of A. domesticus populations. Moreover, the transferability of these SSR makers would also enable researchers to conduct genetic studies for other closely related species.

Keywords: cross-amplification, microsatellite markers, observed heterozygosity, population genetic, simple sequence repeats

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5781 A Game-Based Methodology to Discriminate Executive Function – a Pilot Study With Institutionalized Elderly People

Authors: Marlene Rosa, Susana Lopes

Abstract:

There are few studies that explore the potential of board games as a performance measure, despite it can be an interesting strategy in the context of frailty populations. In fact, board games are immersive strategies than can inhibit the pressure of being evaluated. This study aimed to test the ability of gamed-base strategies to assess executive function in elderly population. Sixteen old participants were included: 10 with affected executive functions (G1 – 85.30±6.00 yrs old; 10 male); 6 with executive functions with non-clinical important modifications (G2 - 76.30±5.19 yrs old; 6 male). Executive tests were assessed using the Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB), which is a quick-applicable cognitive screening test (score<12 means impairment). The board game used in this study was the TATI Hand Game, specifically for training rhythmic coordination of the upper limbs with multiple cognitive stimuli. This game features 1 table grid, 1 set of Single Game cards (to play with one hand); Double Game cards (to play simultaneously with two hands); 1 dice to plan Single Game mode; cards to plan the Double Game mode; 1 bell; 2 cups. Each participant played 3 single game cards, and the following data were collected: (i) variability in time during board game challenges (SD); (ii) number of errors; (iii) execution speed (sec). G1 demonstrated: high variability in execution time during board game challenges (G1 – 13.0s vs G2- 0.5s); a higher number of errors (1.40 vs 0.67); higher execution velocity (607.80s vs 281.83s). These results demonstrated the potential of implementing board games as a functional assessment strategy in geriatric care. Future studies might include larger samples and statistical methodologies to find cut-off values for impairment in executive functions during performance in TATI game.

Keywords: board game, aging, executive function, evaluation

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5780 Effects of Palm Kernel Expeller Processing on the Ileal Populations of Lactobacilli and Escherichia Coli in Broiler Chickens

Authors: B. Navidshad

Abstract:

The main objective of this study was to examine the effects of enzymatic treatment and shell content of palm kernel expeller (PKE) on the ileal Lactobacilli and Escherichia coli populations in broiler chickens. At the finisher phase, one hundred male broiler chickens (Cobb-500) were fed a control diet or the diets containing 200 g/kg of normal PKE (70 g/kg shell), low shell PKE (30 g/kg shell), enzymatic treated PKE or low shell-enzymatic treated PKE. The quantitative real-time PCR were used to determine the ileal bacteria populations. The lowest ileal Lactobacilli population was found in the chickens fed the low shell PKE diet. Dietary normal PKE or low shell-enzymatic treated PKE decreased the Escherichia coli population compared to the control diet. The results suggested that PKE could be included up to 200 g/kg in the finisher diet, however, any screening practice to reduce the shell content of PKE without enzymatic degradation of β-mannan, decrease ileal Lactobacilli population.

Keywords: palm kernel expeller, exogenous enzyme, shell content, ileum bacteria, broiler chickens

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5779 Ratio Type Estimators for the Estimation of Population Coefficient of Variation under Two-Stage Sampling

Authors: Muhammad Jabbar

Abstract:

In this paper we propose two ratio and ratio type exponential estimator for the estimation of population coefficient of variation using the auxiliary information under two-stage sampling. The properties of these estimators are derived up to first order of approximation. The efficiency conditions under which suggested estimator are more efficient, are obtained. Numerical and simulated studies are conducted to support the superiority of the estimators. Theoretically and numerically, we have found that our proposed estimator is always more efficient as compared to its competitor estimator.

Keywords: two-stage sampling, coefficient of variation, ratio type exponential estimator

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5778 Depression in Immigrants and Refugees

Authors: Fatou Cisse

Abstract:

Depression is one of the most serious health problems experienced by immigrants and refugees, who are likely to undergo heightened political, economic, social, and environmental stressors as they transition to a new culture. The purpose of this literature review is to identify and compare risks associated with depression among young adult immigrants and refugees aged 18 to 25. Ten articles focused on risks associated with depression symptoms among this population were reviewed, revealing several common themes: Stress, identity, culture, language barriers, discrimination, social support, self-esteem, length of time in the receiving country, origins, or background. Existing research has failed to account adequately for sample size, language barriers, how the concept of "depression" differs across cultures, and stressors immigrants and refugees experience prior to the transition to the new culture. The study revealed that immigrants and refugees are at risk for depression and that the risk is greater in the refugee population due to their history of trauma. The Roy Adaptation Model was employed to understand the coping mechanisms that refugees and immigrants could use to reduce rates of depression. The psychiatric nurse practitioner must be prepared to intervene and educate this population on these coping mechanisms to help them overcome the feelings that lead to depression and facilitate a smooth integration into the new culture.

Keywords: immigration, refugees, depression, young adults

Procedia PDF Downloads 199
5777 Community Resilience in Response to the Population Growth in Al-Thahabiah Neighborhood

Authors: Layla Mujahed

Abstract:

Amman, the capital of Jordan, is the main political, economic, social and cultural center of Jordan and beyond. The city faces multitude demographic challenges related to the unstable political situation in the surrounded countries. It has regional and local migrants who left their homes to find better life in the capital. This resulted with random and unequaled population distribution. Some districts have high population and pressure on the infrastructure and services more than other districts.Government works to resolve this challenge in compliance with 100 Cities Resilience Framework (CRF). Amman participated in this framework as a member in December 2014 to work in achieving the four goals: health and welfare, infrastructure and utilities, economy and education as well as administration and government.  Previous research studies lack in studying Amman resilient work in neighborhood scale and the population growth as resilient challenge. For that, this study focuses on Al-Thahabiah neighborhood in Shafa Badran district in Amman. This paper studies the reasons and drivers behind this population growth during the selected period in this area then provide strategies to improve the resilient work in neighborhood scale. The methodology comprises of primary and secondary data. The primary data consist of interviews with chief officer in the executive part in Great Amman Municipality and resilient officer. The secondary data consist of papers, journals, newspaper, articles and book’s reading. The other part of data consists of maps and statistical data which describe the infrastructural and social situation in the neighborhood and district level during the studying period. Based upon those data, more detailed information will be found, e.g., the centralizing position of population and the provided infrastructure for them. This will help to provide these services and infrastructure to other neighborhoods and enhance population distribution. This study develops an analytical framework to assess urban demographical time series in accordance with the criteria of CRF to make accurate detailed projections on the requirements for the future development in the neighborhood scale and organize the human requirements for affordable quality housing, employment, transportation, health and education in this neighborhood to improve the social relations between its inhabitants and the community. This study highlights on the localization of resilient work in neighborhood scale and spread the resilient knowledge related to the shortage of its research in Jordan. Studying the resilient work from population growth challenge perspective helps improve the facilities provide to the inhabitants and improve their quality of life.

Keywords: city resilience framework, demography, population growth, stakeholders, urban resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 179
5776 Evaluation of Age-Friendly Nursing Service System: KKU (AFNS:KKU) Model for the Excellence

Authors: Roongtiwa Chobchuen, Siriporn Mongkholthawornchai, Boonsong Hatawaikarn, Uriwan Chaichangreet, Kobkaew Thongtid, Pusda Pukdeekumjorn, Panita Limpawattana

Abstract:

Background: Age-friendly nursing service system in Srinagarind Hospital has been developed continuously based on the value and cultural background of Thailand which corporates with the modified WHO’s Age friendly Primary Care Service System. It consists of 3 issues; 1) development of staff training, 2) age-friendly service and 3) appropriate physical environment. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of Age-friendly Nursing Service System: KKU (AFNS:KKU) model and to evaluate factors associated with nursing perception with AFN:KKU. Study design: Descriptive study Setting: 31 wards that served older patients in Srinagarind Hospital Populations: Nursing staff from 11 departments (31 wards) Instrument: Age-friendly nursing care scale as perceived by hospitalized older person Procedure and statistical analysis: All participants were asked questions using age-friendly nursing care scale as perceived by hospitalized older person questionnaires. Descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to analyse the outcomes. Results: There were 337 participants recruited in this study. The majority of them were women (92%) with the mean ages of 29 years and 77.45% were nurse practitioners. They had average nursing experiences of 5 years. The average scores of age-friendly nursing care scale were high and highest in the area of attitude and communication. Age, sex, educational level, duration of work among, and having experience in aging training were not associated with nursing perception where type of department was an independent factor. Nurses from department of Surgery and Orthopedic, Eye and ENT, special ward and Obstetrics and Gynecological had significant greater perception than nurses from Internal Medicine Department (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Nurses had high scores in all dimensions of age-friendly concept. The result indicates that nurses have good attitude to aging care which can lead to improve quality of care. Organization should support other domains of ageing care to achieve greater effectiveness in geriatric care.

Keywords: age-friendly, nursing service system, excellence model, geriatric care

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5775 Incidence of Idiopathic Inflammatory Myopathies and Their Risk of Cancer in Leeds, UK: An 11-year Epidemiological Study

Authors: Benoit Jauniaux, Azzam Ismail

Abstract:

Objectives: The aims were to identify all incident adult cases of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) in the City of Leeds, UK, and to estimate the risk of cancer in IIMs as compared with the general population. Methods: Cases of IIMs were ascertained by review of all muscle biopsy reports from the Neuropathology Laboratory. A review of medical records was undertaken for each case to review the clinical diagnosis and collect epidemiological data such as age, ethnicity, sex, and comorbidities, including cancer. Leeds denominator population numbers were publicly obtainable. Results: Two hundred and six biopsy reports were identified, and after review, 50 incident cases were included in the study between June 2010 and January 2021. Out of the 50 cases, 27 were male, and 23 were female. The mean incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds throughout the study period was 7.42/1 000 000 person years. The proportion of IIMs cases with a confirmed malignancy was 22%. Compared to the general population, the relative risk of cancer was significantly greater in the IIMs population(31.56, P < 0.01). Conclusions: The incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds was consistent with data from previous literature, however, disagreement exists between different methods of IIMs case inclusion due to varying clinical criteria and definitions. IIMs are associated with increased risk of cancer however, the pathogenesis of this relationship still requires investigating. This study supports the practice of malignancy screening and long-term surveillance in patients with IIMs.

Keywords: idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, myositis, polymyositis, dermatomyositis, malignancy, epidemiology, incidence rate, relative risk

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5774 Microbial and Meiofaunal Dynamics in the Intertidal Sediments of the Northern Red Sea

Authors: Hamed A. El-Serehy, Khaled A. Al-Rasheid, Fahad A Al-Misned

Abstract:

The meiofaunal population fluctuation, microbial dynamic and the composition of the sedimentary organic matter were investigated seasonally in the Egyptian shores along the northern part of Red Sea. Total meiofaunal population densities were extremely low with an annual average of 109 ±26 ind./10 cm2 and largely dominated by nematodes (on annual average from 52% to 94% of total meiofaunal density). The benthic microbial population densities ranged from 0.26±0.02 x 108 to 102.67±18.62 x 108/g dry sediment. Total sedimentary organic matter concentrations varied between 5.8 and 11.6 mg/g and the organic carbon, which was measured as summation of the carbohydrates, proteins and lipids, accounted for only a small fraction of being 32 % of the total organic matter. Chlorophyll a attained very low values and fluctuated between 2 and 11 µg/g. The very low chlorophyll a concentration in the Egyptian coasts along the Red Sea can suggest that the sedimentary organic matter along the Egyptian coasts is dominated by organic detrital and heterotrophic bacteria on one hand, and do not promote carbon transfer towards the higher trophic level on the other hand. However, the present study indicates that the existing of well diversified meiofaunal group, with a total of ten meiofaunal taxa, can serve as food for higher trophic levels in the Red Sea marine ecosystem.

Keywords: bacteria, meiofauna, intertidal sediments, Red Sea

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5773 Sublethal Effects of Clothianidin and Summer Oil on the Demographic Parameters and Population Projection of Bravicoryne Brassicae(Hemiptera: Aphididae)

Authors: Mehdi Piri Ouchtapeh, Fariba Mehrkhou, Maryam Fourouzan

Abstract:

The cabbage aphid, Bravicoryne brassicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is known as an economically important and oligophagous pest of different cole crops. The polyvolitine characteristics of B. brassicae resulted in resistance to insecticides. For this purpose, in this study, the sub-lethal concentration (LC25) of two insecticides, clothianidin and summer oil, on the life table parameters and population projection of cabbage aphid were studied at controlled condition (20±1 ℃, R.H. 60 ±5 % and a photoperiod of 16:8 h (L:D). The dipping method was used in bioassay and life table studies. Briefly, the leaves of cabbage containing 15 the same-aged (24h) adults of cabbage aphid (four replicates) were dipped into the related concentrations of insecticides for 10 s. The sub-lethal (LC25) obtained concentration were used 5.822 and 108.741 p.p.m for clothianidin and summer oil, respectively. The biological and life table studies were done using at least 100, 93 and 82 the same age of eggs for control, summer oil and clothianidin treatments respectively. The life history data of the greenhouse whitefly cohorts exposed to sublethal concentration of the aforementioned insecticides were analyzed using the computer program TWOSEX–MSChart based on the age-stage, two-sex life table theory. The results of this study showed that the used insecticides affected the developmental time, survival rate, adult longevity, and fecundity of the F1 generation. The developmental time on control, clothianidin and summer oil treatments was obtained (5.91 ± 0.10 days), (7.64 ± 0.12 days) and (6.66 ± 0.10 days), respectively. The sublethal concentration of clothianidin resulted in decreasing of adult longevity (8.63 ± 0.30 days), fecundity (14.14 ± 87 nymphs), survival rate (71%) and the life expectancy (10.26 days) of B. brassicae, as well. Additionally, usage of LC25 insecticides led to decreasing of the net reproductive rate (R0) of the cabbage aphid compared to summer oil and control treatments. The intrinsic rate of increase (r) (day-1) was decreased in F1 adults of cabbage aphid compared with other treatments. Additionally, the population projection results were accordance with the population growth rate of cabbage aphid. Therefore, the findings of this research showed that, however, both of the insecticides were effective on cabbage aphid population, but clothianidin was more effective and could be consider in the management of aforementioned pest.

Keywords: the cabbage aphid, sublethal effects, survival rate, population projection, life expectancy

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5772 Control of an SIR Model for Basic Reproduction Number Regulation

Authors: Enrique Barbieri

Abstract:

The basic disease-spread model described by three states denoting the susceptible (S), infectious (I), and removed (recovered and deceased) (R) sub-groups of the total population N, or SIR model, has been considered. Heuristic mitigating action profiles of the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical types may be developed in a control design setting for the purpose of reducing the transmission rate or improving the recovery rate parameters in the model. Even though the transmission and recovery rates are not control inputs in the traditional sense, a linear observer and feedback controller can be tuned to generate an asymptotic estimate of the transmission rate for a linearized, discrete-time version of the SIR model. Then, a set of mitigating actions is suggested to steer the basic reproduction number toward unity, in which case the disease does not spread, and the infected population state does not suffer from multiple waves. The special case of piecewise constant transmission rate is described and applied to a seventh-order SEIQRDP model, which segments the population into four additional states. The offline simulations in discrete time may be used to produce heuristic policies implemented by public health and government organizations.

Keywords: control of SIR, observer, SEIQRDP, disease spread

Procedia PDF Downloads 111