Search results for: relative risk

Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

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Authors: Razan Salem

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Men and women have different approaches towards investing, both in terms of strategies and risk attitudes. This study aims to focus mainly on investigating the financial risk behaviors of Arab women investors and to examine the financial risk tolerance levels of Arab women relative to Arab men investors. Using survey data on 547 Arab men and women investors, the results of Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One-Sample) test Mann-Whitney U test reveal that Arab women are risk-averse investors and have lower financial risk tolerance levels relative to Arab men. Such findings can be explained by the fact of women's nature and lower investment literacy levels. Further, the current political uncertainty in the Arab region may be considered as another explanation of Arab women’s risk aversion behavior. The study's findings support the existing literature by validating the stereotype of “women are more risk-averse than men” in the Arab region. Overall, when it comes to investment and financial behaviors, women around the world behave similarly.

Keywords: Arab region, culture, financial risk behavior, gender differences, women investors

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Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini

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This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.

Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams

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Authors: Francis Edum-Fotwe, Tony Thorpe, Charles Afetornu

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Risk perception informs the outcome of how issues are responded to in either solving or overcoming a problem or improving a situation. Risk perception is established to be affected by some key factors reflecting in the varying ways in which work is done as well as the level of efficiency achieved. These factors potentially would influence risk perception to different extents. Such that if these factors are said to determine risk perception, how does a change in any affect risk perception. Since the ability to address risk is influenced by risk perception, establishing and developing awareness of that perception should enable construction professionals to make viable decisions. Any act to improve the construction industry cannot be overemphasised, considering its contribution to national development. A survey questionnaire was conducted in Ghana to elicit data that measures the risk perception and the essential factors as well as the necessary demographics of the respondents, who are construction professionals. This study finds out the sensitivity of the critical factors of risk perception. It uses the Relative Importance Index analysis tool to investigate the differential effect of these essential factors on risk perception, such that a slight change in a factor makes a significant change in risk perception, having established that it is influenced by essential factors. The findings can lead to policy formation for employers on the prioritisation factors to undertake to improve the risk perception of employees. Other areas in which this study can be useful in team formation for sensitive and complex projects where efficient risk management is critical.

Keywords: construction industry, risk, risk management, risk perception

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Authors: Imtiaz Ali, Imam Mansoor

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Investigations as a part of the academic study were undertaken to identify and evaluate the significant risks associated with the construction of K-span buildings in the region of UAE. Primary field data was collected through questionnaires obtaining specific open and close-ended questions from carefully selected construction firms, civil engineers and, construction manager regarding risks associated to K-span building construction. Historical data available for other regions of the same construction technique was available which was compared for identifying various non-critical and critical risk parameters by comparative evaluation techniques to come up with important risks and potential sources for their control and minimization in K-Span buildings that is increasing in the region. The associated risks have been determined with their Relative Importance Index (RII) values of which Risk involved in Change of Design required by Owners carries the highest value (RII=0.79) whereas, Delayed Payment by Owner to Contractor is one of the least (RII=0.42) value. The overall findings suggest that most relative risks as quantified originate or associated with the contractors. It may be concluded that project proponents undertaking K-span projects in planning and budgeting the cost and delays should take into account of risks on high account if changes in design are also required any delays in the material by the supplier would then be a major risk in K-span project delay. Since projects are, less costly, so owners have limited budgets, then they hire small contractors, which are not highly competent contractors. So study suggests that owner should be aware of these types of risks associated with the construction of K-span buildings in order to make it cost effective.

Keywords: k-span buildings, k-span construction, risk management, relative improvement index (RII)

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Authors: Qian Li, Shouxiang Lu

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With the rapid increase in electric power use, wire and cable fire occur more and more frequent. The fire smoke has a corrosive effect on the solders, which seriously affects the function of electronic equipment. In this research, the effect of environment relative humidity on corrosion behavior of Sn-0.7Cu solder has been researched under 140 g·m⁻³ polyvinyl chloride (PVC) fire smoke atmosphere. The mass loss of Sn-0.7Cu solder increased with the relative humidity. Furthermore, the microstructures and corrosion mechanism were analyzed by using SEM, EDS, XRD, and XPS. The result shows that Sn₂₁Cl₁₆(OH)₁₄O₆ is the main corrosion products and the corrosion process is an electrochemical reaction. The present work could provide guidance to the risk assessment for electronic equipment rescue after a fire.

Keywords: corrosion, fire smoke, relative humidity, Sn-0.7Cu solder

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

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Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

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Authors: Sunita Patel

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Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity as well as mortality in India. Objective of this study is to examine CVDs prevalence and identify their behavioral and cultural risk factors with the help of SAGE-2007 data conducted on 6th states in India. Findings reveal that 18.3% of people diagnosed with CVDs in India. Higher disease occurs in an increasing rate between ages of 30-39 having OR 2.45 (CI: 1.66-3.63) and 70+ age OR 7.45 (CI: 4.82-11.49) times higher compare to 18-29 age group respectively. Wealth quintile higher CVD occurs as 3rd in 60% (CI: 1.16-2.21) and in richest 5th quintile 58% (CI: 1.13-2.21) contrast to lowest quintile. Relative risk depicted that 22.4% in moderate and 44% in vigorous activity have less chance of diseases compare to who performed no work and those who consumed alcohol. Results reveal that policy prospect should be recommended and that it would be beneficial for awareness of people and their future.

Keywords: behavioral risk, cultural risk, cardio-vascular diseases, wealth quintile

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

Keywords: ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors

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Authors: Farhad Reyazat, Richard Werner

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This paper contributes to the existent literature by developing a framework that explains how to monitor potential threats to banking sector stability. The study explores structural vulnerabilities at the country level, but also look at bilateral exposures within a network context. The study contributes in analysing of the European banking systemic risk at aggregated level, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, and interconnectedness relative to the size of the economy which ultimate risk belong to, taking to account the concentration ratio of the banking industry within the whole economy. The nature of the systemic risk depends on the interplay of the network topology with the nature of financial transactions over the network, assets and buffer stemming from bank size, correlations, and the nature of the shocks to the financial system. The study’s results illustrate the contribution of banks’ size, size of economy and concentration of counterparty exposures to a given country’s banks in explaining its systemic importance, how much the banking network depends on a few traditional hubs activities and the changes of this dependencies over the last 9 years. The role of few of traditional hubs such as Swiss banks and British Banks and also Irish banks- where the financial sector is fairly new and grew strongly between 1990s till 2008- take the fourth position on 2014 reducing the relative size since 2006 where they had the first position. In-degree concentration index analysis in the study shows concentration index of banking network was not changed since financial crisis 2007-8. In-degree concentration index on first quarter of 2014 indicates that US, UK and Germany together, getting over 70% of the network exposures. The result of comparing the in-degree concentration index with 2007-4Q, shows the same group having over 70% of the network exposure, however the UK getting more important role in the hub and the market share of US and Germany are slightly diminished.

Keywords: systemic risk, counterparty risk, financial stability, interconnectedness, banking concentration, european banks risk, network effect on systemic risk, concentration risk

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Authors: Aparna Lal, Ashwin Swaminathan, Teisa Holani

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Background: Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) have been on the rise globally. In Australia, rates of CDI in all States and Territories have increased significantly since mid-2011. Identifying risk factors for CDI in the community can help inform targeted interventions to reduce infection. Methods: We examine the role of neighbourhood socio-economic status, demography, testing practices and the number of residential aged care facilities on spatial patterns in CDI incidence in the Australian Capital Territory. Data on all tests conducted for CDI were obtained from ACT Pathology by postcode for the period 1st January 2004 through 31 December 2014. Distribution of age groups and the neighbourhood Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage Disadvantage (IRSAD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 National Census data. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the postcode level to quantify the relationship between CDI and socio-demographic factors. To identify CDI hotspots, exceedance probabilities were set at a threshold of twice the estimated relative risk. Results: CDI showed a positive spatial association with the number of tests (RR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.02) and the resident population over 65 years (RR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). The standardized index of relative socio-economic advantage disadvantage (IRSAD) was significantly negatively associated with CDI (RR=0.74, 95% CI 0.56, 0.94). We identified three postcodes with high probability (0.8-1.0) of excess risk. Conclusions: Here, we demonstrate geographic variations in CDI in the ACT with a positive association of CDI with socioeconomic disadvantage and identify areas with a high probability of elevated risk compared with surrounding communities. These findings highlight community-based risk factors for CDI.

Keywords: spatial, socio-demographic, infection, Clostridium difficile

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Authors: Benoit Jauniaux, Azzam Ismail

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Objectives: The aims were to identify all incident adult cases of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) in the City of Leeds, UK, and to estimate the risk of cancer in IIMs as compared with the general population. Methods: Cases of IIMs were ascertained by review of all muscle biopsy reports from the Neuropathology Laboratory. A review of medical records was undertaken for each case to review the clinical diagnosis and collect epidemiological data such as age, ethnicity, sex, and comorbidities, including cancer. Leeds denominator population numbers were publicly obtainable. Results: Two hundred and six biopsy reports were identified, and after review, 50 incident cases were included in the study between June 2010 and January 2021. Out of the 50 cases, 27 were male, and 23 were female. The mean incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds throughout the study period was 7.42/1 000 000 person years. The proportion of IIMs cases with a confirmed malignancy was 22%. Compared to the general population, the relative risk of cancer was significantly greater in the IIMs population(31.56, P < 0.01). Conclusions: The incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds was consistent with data from previous literature, however, disagreement exists between different methods of IIMs case inclusion due to varying clinical criteria and definitions. IIMs are associated with increased risk of cancer however, the pathogenesis of this relationship still requires investigating. This study supports the practice of malignancy screening and long-term surveillance in patients with IIMs.

Keywords: idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, myositis, polymyositis, dermatomyositis, malignancy, epidemiology, incidence rate, relative risk

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Authors: Jongwoo Lee, Dae-Eun Kang, Sang-Young Park

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This study presents a precise relative navigational method for satellites flying in formation using laser-based intermittent measurement data. The measurement data for the relative navigation between two satellites consist of a relative distance measured by a laser instrument and relative attitude angles measured by attitude determination. The relative navigation solutions are estimated by both the Extended Kalman filter (EKF) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF). The solutions estimated by the EKF may become inaccurate or even diverge as measurement outage time gets longer because the EKF utilizes a linearization approach. However, this study shows that the UKF with the appropriate scaling parameters provides a stable and accurate relative navigation solutions despite the long measurement outage time and large initial error as compared to the relative navigation solutions of the EKF. Various navigation results have been analyzed by adjusting the scaling parameters of the UKF.

Keywords: satellite relative navigation, laser-based measurement, intermittent measurement, unscented Kalman filter

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Authors: Khwaja Naweed Seddiqi, Shigeo Honma

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Relative permeability is the important parameter controlling the immiscible displacement of multiphase fluids flow in porous medium. The relative permeability for immiscible displacement of two-phase fluids flow (oil and water) in porous medium has been measured in this paper. As a result of the experiment, irreducible water saturation, Swi, residual oil saturation, Sor, and relative permeability curves for Kerosene, Heavy oil and Lubricant oil were determined successfully.

Keywords: relative permeability, two-phase flow, immiscible displacement, porous medium

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Authors: Tamanna Rimi

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A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

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Authors: Amichai Ben ari, Daniella Margalit

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Medical procedures, such as surgery, may have traumatic significance for some children. This study examines the relationship between maltreatment in children and the development Pediatric Medical Traumatic Stress (PMTS). To this end, differences in the level of distress of children after surgery were examined between two groups: children who were maltreated ("children at risk") and children from the control group ("children who are not at risk"). The study involved 230 parents of children who came to the hospital to undergo surgery. Parents filled out demographic questionnaires to measure socioeconomic variables and psychological questionnaires to measure the distress of the child and parent before surgery. After 6 months from the time of surgery, the parents again filled in the questionnaire measuring the child's distress. The results of the study showed that the level of distress experienced by children at risk after surgery was significantly higher relative to children who are not at risk. It was also found that the level of distress experienced by parents of children at risk in relation to their child’s surgery is significantly higher compared to parents of children who are not at risk. Finally, it was found that the variables: (1) pre-morbid psychological functioning of the child. (2) Parental and family functioning in daily life. (3) Exposure of the child to traumatic events. (4) Support factors for the family. Are variables that predict the development of PMTS in children after surgery, but only for children at risk and not for children who are not at risk. The significance of the findings in relation to the need to identify at-risk populations in the hospitals and the policies derived from them were discussed, and several directions were raised for further research.

Keywords: children at risk, pediatric medical traumatic stress (PMTS), PTSD, medical procedures

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Longqing Li

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The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Abeer Kharshid, Nor Azizah Aziz, Tarek M. Elsayed

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Medication safety is always an issue. In 2015, the National Pharmaceutical Control Bureau released a statement requesting all statins manufacturers in Malaysia to include the risk of diabetes information in the drug information leaflet in response to United States Food and Drug Administration (U.S. FDA) report. However, the data regarding this warning label in Malaysia is limited, so there is still some uncertainty whether such risk can also be observed in the Malaysian population or not. The study aims to determine the effect of statins on HbA1c% in type 2 diabetic outpatients in endocrine clinics at Hospital Pulau Pinang between June 2015 and May 2016 in Malaysia. In a prospective cohort study, records of 400 type 2 diabetic patients (control group 104 patients not using statin and treatment group 296 patients using statin) were reviewed to identify demographic criteria and lab tests. The prevalence of glycemic control (Glycated hemoglobin, HbA1C ≤ 7% for patient < 65 years, and < 8% for patient ≥ 65 years) was estimated, according to American Diabetes Association guidelines 2015. The results were presented as descriptive statistics. From 296 patients with Type 2 diabetes using statins cohort with a mean age of 57.52 ± 12.2 years, only 81 (27.4%) cases had controlled glycemia, and 215 (72.6%) had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (6.3–11.1). While the control group 104 diabetic patients had a mean age 46.1 ± 18 years and distributed among 59 (56.7%) patients with controlled diabetes and 45 (43.3%) cases, had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (5.2–10.3). The relative risk (RR) of uncontrolled glycemia in diabetic patients used statins was 1.68, and the excessive relative risk (ERR) was 68%. The absolute risk (AR) was 29.3%, and the number needed to harm (NNH) was 4. Diabetic patients using statins have more risk of uncontrolled glycemia than the patients with Type 2 diabetes non-using statins.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, HbA1c, Malaysia, outpatients, statin, type 2, uncontrolled glycemia

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Authors: Varangkana Thaotumpitak, Jarukorn Sripradite, Saharuetai Jeamsripong

Abstract:

Environmental contamination from wastewater discharges originated from anthropogenic activities introduces the accumulation of enteropathogenic bacteria in aquatic animals, especially in oysters, and in shellfish harvesting areas. The consumption of raw or partially cooked oysters can be a risk for seafood-borne diseases in human. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the presence of Salmonella in oyster meat samples, and environmental factors (ambient air temperature, relative humidity, gust wind speed, average wind speed, tidal condition, precipitation and season) by using the principal component analysis (PCA). One hundred and forty-four oyster meat samples were collected from four oyster harvesting areas in Phang Nga province, Thailand from March 2016 to February 2017. The prevalence of Salmonella of each site was ranged from 25.0-36.11% in oyster meat. The results of PCA showed that ambient air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation were main factors correlated with Salmonella detection in these oysters. Positive relationship was observed between positive Salmonella in the oysters and relative humidity (PC1=0.413) and precipitation (PC1=0.607), while the negative association was found between ambient air temperature (PC1=0.338) and the presence of Salmonella in oyster samples. These results suggested that lower temperature and higher precipitation and higher relative humidity will possibly effect on Salmonella contamination of oyster meat. During the high risk period, harvesting of oysters should be prohibited to reduce pathogenic bacteria contamination and to minimize a hazard of humans from Salmonellosis.

Keywords: oyster, Phang Nga Bay, principal component analysis, Salmonella

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Erol Sahin, Nesrin Adiguzel

Abstract:

In this study, the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the operation of the heat pump were examined experimentally. The results were analyzed in an energy and exergetic way. Two heat pumps were used in the experimental system established for experimental analysis. With the first heat pump, the relative humidity and temperature of atmospheric air are reduced. The air at low humidity and temperature is given heat and water vapor to the desired extent on the channel that reaches the other heat pump. Effects of the air reaching the desired humidity and temperature in the 2nd heat pump; temperature, humidity, pressure, flow, and current are detected by meters. The measured values and the exergy yield and thermodynamic favor ratios of the system and its components were determined. In this way, the effects of temperature and relative humidity change in the heat pump and components were tried to be revealed. Relative humidity in the air caused a significant increase in the loss of exergy in the evaporator. This has shown that cooling machines experience greater exergy in areas with high relative humidity. The highest COPSM values were determined to be at 30% and 40%, which is the least relative humidity values. The results showed that heat pump exergy efficiency was affected by increased temperature and relative humidity.

Keywords: relative humidity, effects of relative humidity on heat pumps, exergy analysis, exergy analysis in heat pumps, exergy efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Shalini Bahel, Maalti Puri, Sukhleen Bindra Narang

Abstract:

Ceramic samples of (Pb0.55Ca0.45) (Fe0.5Nb0.5)O3 and (Pb0.45Ca0.55)(Fe0.5Nb0.5)O3 were synthesized by columbite precursor method and characterized for structural and dielectric properties. Both the synthesized samples have perovskite structure with tetragonal symmetry. The variations in relative permittivity and loss tangent were measured as a function of frequency at room temperature. Both the relative permittivity and loss tangent decreased with increase in frequency. A reasonably high value of relative permittivity of 63.46, loss tangent of 0.0067 at 15 MHz and temperature coefficient of relative permittivity of -82 ppm/˚C was obtained for (Pb0.45Ca0.55) (Fe0.5Nb0.5) O3.

Keywords: loss tangent, perovskite, relative permittivity, X-ray diffraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upper-extremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, risk identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

Abstract:

Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

Abstract:

Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 519