Search results for: delayed diagnosis and poor outcome
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6670

Search results for: delayed diagnosis and poor outcome

2200 Assessing Functional Structure in European Marine Ecosystems Using a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal Model

Authors: Katyana A. Vert-Pre, James T. Thorson, Thomas Trancart, Eric Feunteun

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In marine ecosystems, spatial and temporal species structure is an important component of ecosystems’ response to anthropological and environmental factors. Although spatial distribution patterns and fish temporal series of abundance have been studied in the past, little research has been allocated to the joint dynamic spatio-temporal functional patterns in marine ecosystems and their use in multispecies management and conservation. Each species represents a function to the ecosystem, and the distribution of these species might not be random. A heterogeneous functional distribution will lead to a more resilient ecosystem to external factors. Applying a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal (VAST) model for count data, we estimate the spatio-temporal distribution, shift in time, and abundance of 140 species of the Eastern English Chanel, Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean Sea. From the model outputs, we determined spatio-temporal clusters, calculating p-values for hierarchical clustering via multiscale bootstrap resampling. Then, we designed a functional map given the defined cluster. We found that the species distribution within the ecosystem was not random. Indeed, species evolved in space and time in clusters. Moreover, these clusters remained similar over time deriving from the fact that species of a same cluster often shifted in sync, keeping the overall structure of the ecosystem similar overtime. Knowing the co-existing species within these clusters could help with predicting data-poor species distribution and abundance. Further analysis is being performed to assess the ecological functions represented in each cluster.

Keywords: cluster distribution shift, European marine ecosystems, functional distribution, spatio-temporal model

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2199 Deprivation of Adivasi People's Rights to Forest Resources: A Case Study from United Andhra Pradesh India

Authors: Anil Kumar Kursenge

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In the State of united Andhra Pradesh, many Adivasi People live in areas rich in living and non-living resources, including forests that contain abundant biodiversity, water and minerals. Of united Andhra Pradesh 76.2m population, over five million are Adivasi population of forest landscape. They depend on forests for a substantial part of their livelihoods and close cultural affinity with forests. However, they are the most impoverished population of the State, and the high levels of poverty in Andhra Pradesh forest landscapes are largely an outcome of historically-rooted institutionalised marginalisation. As the State appropriated forests and forest land for itself, it deprived local people of their customary rights in the forest. The local realities of the forest rights deprivations are extremely complex, reflecting a century and a half of compounded processes. With growing population pressure and ever-increasing demands for natural and mineral resources, Adivasi Peoples' lands, which are often relatively rich in resources, become more and more attractive to 'developers.' The development projects and institutionalised marginalisation have been deprived Adivasi people's rights over natural resources has resulted in serious negative effects on Adivasi people and on their lands. Historically, the desire for development for such resources has resulted in the removal, decimation, or extermination of many tribal communities. These deprivations have led to highly conflictual relations between the State and the Adivasi people and forest areas in Andhra Pradesh. Today, the survival of the Adivasi Peoples requires recognition of their rights to the forest resources found in their lands and territories on which they depend for their economic, cultural, survival, spiritual and physical well-being. In this context, this paper attempts to discuss the issues of deprivation with regard to access to forest resources and development projects where many Adivasis in State uprooted from their homes and lands.

Keywords: tribal people, forest rights, livelihoods, deprivation, marginalisation, Andhra Pradesh

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2198 An Efficient Tool for Mitigating Voltage Unbalance with Reactive Power Control of Distributed Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

Authors: Malinwo Estone Ayikpa

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With the rapid increase of grid-connected PV systems over the last decades, genuine challenges have arisen for engineers and professionals of energy field in the planning and operation of existing distribution networks with the integration of new generation sources. However, the conventional distribution network, in its design was not expected to receive other generation outside the main power supply. The tools generally used to analyze the networks become inefficient and cannot take into account all the constraints related to the operation of grid-connected PV systems. Some of these constraints are voltage control difficulty, reverse power flow, and especially voltage unbalance which could be due to the poor distribution of single-phase PV systems in the network. In order to analyze the impact of the connection of small and large number of PV systems to the distribution networks, this paper presents an efficient optimization tool that minimizes voltage unbalance in three-phase distribution networks with active and reactive power injections from the allocation of single-phase and three-phase PV plants. Reactive power can be generated or absorbed using the available capacity and the adjustable power factor of the inverter. Good reduction of voltage unbalance can be achieved by reactive power control of the PV systems. The presented tool is based on the three-phase current injection method and the PV systems are modeled via an equivalent circuit. The primal-dual interior point method is used to obtain the optimal operating points for the systems.

Keywords: Photovoltaic system, Primal-dual interior point method, Three-phase optimal power flow, Voltage unbalance

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2197 Exploring Psychosocial Factors That Enable Teachers to Cope with Workplace Adversity at a Rural District School Setting

Authors: K. R. Mukuna

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Teachers are faced many challenges in the South African rural schools such as stress, depression, lack of resources, poor working relationships, inflexible curriculum etc. These could affect their wellbeing and effectiveness at the workplace. As a result, the study had a significance in the teacher’s lives, and community due teachers worked under conditions that are unfavourable to perform their jobs effectively. Despite these conditions, they still managed to do their jobs and the community is uplifted. However, this study aimed to explore factors that enable teachers to cope with workplace adversities at a rural school district in the Free State Province. It adopted a qualitative case study as a research design. Semi-structured interviews and colleges had employed as tools to collect data. Ten participants (n=10; 5 males and 5 females) were selected through purposive and convenience sampling. All participants selected from a South African rural school. Sesotho culture was their home language, and most of them had 5 years of teaching experiences. The thematic findings revealed that they developed abilities to cope with and adjust to the social and cultural environment. These included self-efficacy, developing problem-solving skills, awareness of strengths and asserts, self-managing of emotions, and self-confidence. This study concluded that these psychosocial factors contributed to coping with teacher’s diversities, and effectively stabilized their wellbeing in the schools.

Keywords: psychosocial factors, teachers counselling, teacher stress, workplace adversity, rural school, teachers’ wellbeing, teachers’ resilience, teachers’ self-efficacy, social interaction

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2196 Study on Hybridization between Clarias gariepinus (Burchell 1822) and Heterobranchus bidorsalis (Geoffroy Saint Hilaire, 1809)

Authors: Wasiu Olaniyi, Ofelia Omitogun

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Hybridization has been of importance in both research and commercial aquaculture due to its benefits such as increased growth rate, sex ratio manipulation, production of sterile species and many other desirable economic traits. In this study, we successfully produced hybrids between crosses of Clariid catfish species of Clarias gariepinus and Heterobranchus bidorsalis for stock improvement. Milt and eggs from parent broodstock of C. gariepinus and H. bidorsalis were collected for both intrageneric and interspecific hybridization, viz: same parent species crosses (♀C. gariepinus ×♂C. gariepinus; ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂H. bidorsalis) and inter-specific crosses (♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus; ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis). These crosses were made in triplicates whereby the data on latency period, fertility, hatchability, deformity, and survival were recorded. A phenotypic form of distinction was registered in the hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis that was smooth-greyed while its reciprocal cross was marpatic. The parent species C. gariepinus had greyed-marpatic color while the H. bidorsalis was yellowish-brown. Fertility data revealed the significant difference (p < 0.05) between the hybrid cross ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis (88.00 ± 1.00%) compared to its reciprocal ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus (71.67 ± 10.41%) which further had carried over effects to hatchability. The reciprocal ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus recorded the highest deformity (11.67 ± 3.06%) that was significantly different (p < 0.05) from the rest of the crosses. Also, an outcome of equal sex ratio in the hybrids compared with the two parent species was shown. Specific growth rate (SGR) data revealed highest significant difference (p < 0.05) in the hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis (2.64 ± 0.09%), followed by the cross of ♀C. gariepinus × ♂ C. gariepinus (1.91 ± 0.02%) while there were no significant differences (p > 0.05) between the reciprocal hybrid ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus (2.20 ± 0.57%) and ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂H. bidorsalis (2.19 ± 0.19%). The SGR analysis proved that the crosses ♀C. gariepinus × ♂C. gariepinus had slow growth performance compared to its hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis. Critical evaluation based on survival and specific growth performance showed the superiority of the hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis. The least survival in reciprocal hybrid ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus (27.33%) can be explained by significant deformity (11.67%) recorded due to maternal effects. Hence, the survival of hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis was better.

Keywords: aquaculture, hybridization, Clarias gariepinus, Heterobranchus bidorsalis

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2195 Strategies Employed to Enhance Floriculture Production for Masvingo City Residents’ Livelihood Improvement

Authors: Jotham Mazhura

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Floriculture production is an ideal project for sustainable horticultural production in Masvingo city.Gender links in collaboration with the embasy of Sweedenare supporting the floriculture project with the aim of improving residents livelihoods in the city.World trade in floriculture such as cut flowers,live ornamental plants and foliage continue to increase and there are recognised markets opportunities across the globe.Some specific opportunitiesin an interview discussion by the consultant appointed by gender links and embasy of Sweeden highlightedsome constraints and opportunities in the project of floriculture in Masvingo city.Based on the outcome of the scoping studies this research project developed and evaluated strategies for enhancing floriculture production in Masvingo city. A survey was therefore carried out by the researcher among the existing florists farmers in the city to determine strategies to be employed to improve floriculture production.The survey was conducted to twenty florists in the city.The sample was taken by using purposive sampling which is a sampling technique based on the certain considerations, hence there were some basic creteria in selecting samples. A questionnaire in this aspect was administered to the 20 florists to determine the essential strategies to be employed to enhance floriculture production.Each respondent was given data for the business strategies and asked to rank those strategies from the most to the least important.From the research findings the following were revealed out by the respondents that is capturing marketshare,establishment of of ownership of the project,the project manager to be innovative,the business should gain competitive strategic through generic strategies market development strategy and product development strategy. Based on the observation and structured interview with respondents the average of floriculture owners had similar strategies implemented on their business.The research proved that floriculture farmers use various strategies to keep their businesses running and succeding in achieving set goals.Therefore the ressearche who happens to be the project focal person became certain that it is edeal to emply a variety of of strategies to improve floriculture oproduction

Keywords: florist, floriculture, strategy, livelihoods

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2194 Improving Effectiveness of Students' Learning during Clinical Rotations at a Teaching Hospital in Rwanda

Authors: Nanyombi Lubimbi, Josette Niyokindi

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Background: As in many other developing countries in Africa, Rwanda suffers from a chronic shortage of skilled Health Care professionals including Clinical Instructors. This shortage negatively affects the clinical instruction quality therefore impacting student-learning outcomes. Due to poor clinical supervision, it is often noted that students have no structure or consistent guidance in their learning process. The Clinical Educators and the Rwandan counterparts identified the need to create a favorable environment for learning. Description: During orientation the expectations of the student learning process, collaboration of the clinical instructors with the nurses and Clinical Educators is outlined. The ward managers facilitate structured learning by helping the students identify a maximum of two patients using the school’s objectives to guide the appropriate selection of patients. Throughout the day, Clinical Educators with collaboration of Clinical Instructors when present conduct an ongoing assessment of learning and provide feedback to the students. Post-conference is provided once or twice a week to practice critical thinking skills of patient cases that they have been taking care of during the day. Lessons Learned: The students are found to be more confident with knowledge and skills gained during rotations. Clinical facility evaluations completed by students at the end of their rotations highlight the student’s satisfaction and recommendation for continuation of structured learning. Conclusion: Based on the satisfaction of both students and Clinical Instructors, we have identified need for structured learning during clinical rotations. We acknowledge that more evidence-based practice is necessary to effectively address the needs of nursing and midwifery students throughout the country.

Keywords: Rwanda, clinical rotation, structured learning, critical thinking skills, post-conference

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2193 Chaupadi Practice: A Cruel Discrimination against Women a Case Study of Achham District of Nepal

Authors: Santosh Thapa, Sankar Gurung

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Chaupadi is a tradition widely practiced in the far and mid-western region of Nepal. It is a practice where girls and women are not allowed to inter the house and touch the food, water and milk during their menstruation period of 4-7 days. They have to spend all the nights during the period in a specific hut (Chhaupadi Goth) which is a bit far from their residence where they faces various kinds of risk and violence like bullying, snakes and insect bite, wild animal attack etc. Sometimes the girls even do not go to school during their menstruation periods. After childbirth, the woman must stay in a cow shed for 11 days in such Chhaupadi practiced areas. This study limits the Achham district of the far western region which is the most vulnerable Chhaupadi practicing district. Several governmental and non-governmental organizations have been involving and spending huge amount of money for capacity building and awareness raising campaign for last 2 decades but still 9 out of 75 Village Development Committees (VDCs) have been partially practicing Chaupadi in the district. This study shows that the school attendance rate of the girls during the period have visibly increased which helps to increase the number of the girl graduation as well. Similarly, the practice of Chhaupadi is one of the reasons for increasing the number of cases of uterus prolapsus and poor reproductive health of women and girls. Triggering tools are the one of the best ways to accelerate the awareness campaign in the VDCs. This study recommends that the local bodies should coordinate and lead the overall awareness campaign program to sustain the Chaupadi free VDCs.

Keywords: awareness campaign, chaupadi practice, gender discrimination, violence

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2192 Experimental Study on Shaft Grouting Bearing Capacity of Small Diameter Bored Piles

Authors: Trung Le Thanh

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Bored piles are always the optimal solution for high-rise building foundations. They have many advantages, such as large diameter, large pile length and construction in all different geological conditions. However, due to construction characteristics, the load-bearing capacity of bored piles is not optimal because wall friction is reduced due to poor contact between the pile and the surrounding soil. Therefore, grouting technology along the pile body helps improve the load-bearing capacity of bored piles significantly through increasing the skin resistance of the pile and surrounding soil. The improvement of pile skin resistance depends on the parameters of grouting technology, especially grouting volume, mortar viscosity, mortar strength,... and different geological conditions. Studies show that the technology of grouting piles on sandy soil is more effective than on clay. This article presents an experimental model to determine the load-bearing capacity of bored piles with a diameter of 400 mm and a length of 3 m on sand with different slurry volume in Tan Uyen city, Binh Duong province. On that basis, analyze the correlation between the increase in load-bearing capacity of bored piles without and with shaft grouting pile. Research results show that the wall resistance of shaft grouted piles increases 2-3 times compared to piles without grouting, and the pile's load-bearing capacity increases significantly. The article's research provides scientific value for consulting work on the design of bored piles when grouted along the pile body.

Keywords: bored pile, shaft grouting, bearing capacity, pile shaft resistance

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2191 Impacted Maxillary Canines and Associated Dental Anomalies

Authors: Athanasia Eirini Zarkadi, Despoina Balli, Olga Elpis Kolokitha

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Objective: Impacted maxillary canines are a frequent condition and a common reason for patients seeking orthodontic treatment. Their simultaneous presence with dental anomalies raises a question about their possible connection. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of maxillary impacted canines with dental anomalies. Materials and Methods: Files of 874 patients from an orthodontic private practice in Greece were evaluated for the presence of maxillary impacted canines. From this sample, a group of 97 patients (39 males and 58 females) with at least one impacted maxillary canine were selected and consisted of the study group (canine impaction group) of this study. This group was compared to a control group of 97 patients (42 males and 55 females) that was created by random selection from the initial sample without maxillary canine impaction. The impaction diagnosis was made from the panoramic radiographs and confirmed from the surgery. The association between maxillary canine impaction and dental anomalies was examined with the chi-square test. A classification tree was created to further investigate the relations between impaction and dental anomalies. The reproducibility of diagnoses was assessed by re-examining the records of 25 patients two weeks after the first examination. Results: The found associated anomalies were cone-shaped upper lateral incisors and infraocclusion of deciduous molars. There is a significant increase in the prevalence of 12,4% of distal displacement of the unerupted mandibular second premolar in the canine impaction group compared to the control group that was 7,2%. The classification tree showed that the presence of a cone-shaped maxillary lateral incisor gave rise to the probability of an impacted canine to 83,3%. Conclusions: The presence of cone-shaped maxillary lateral incisors and infraocclusion of deciduous molars can be considered valuable early risk indicators for maxillary canine impaction.

Keywords: cone-shaped maxillary lateral incisors, dental anomalies, impacted canines, infraoccluded deciduous molars

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2190 Nutritional Status of Morbidly Obese Patients Prior to Bariatric Surgery

Authors: Azadeh Mottaghi, Reyhaneh Yousefi, Saeed Safari

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Background: Bariatric surgery is widely proposed as the most effective approach to mitigate the growing pace of morbid obesity. As bariatric surgery candidates suffer from pre-existing nutritional deficiencies, it is of great importance to assess nutritional status of candidates before surgery in order to establish appropriate nutritional interventions. Objectives: The present study assessed and represented baseline data according to the nutritional status among candidates for bariatric surgery. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of pre-surgery data was collected on 170 morbidly obese patients undergoing bariatric surgery between October 2017 and February 2018. Dietary intake data (evaluated through 147-item food frequency questionnaire), anthropometric measures and biochemical parameters were assessed. Results: Participants included 145 females (25 males) with average age of 37.3 ± 10.2 years, BMI of 45.7 ± 6.4 kg/m² and reported to have a total of 72.3 ± 22.2 kg excess body weight. The most common nutritional deficiencies referred to iron, ferritin, transferrin, albumin, vitamin B12, and vitamin D, the prevalence of which in the study population were as followed; 6.5, 6.5, 3, 2, 17.6 and 66%, respectively. Mean energy, protein, fat, and carbohydrate intake were 3887.3 ± 1748.32 kcal/day, 121.6 ± 57.1, 144.1 ± 83.05, and 552.4 ± 240.5 gr/day, respectively. The study population consumed lower levels of iron, calcium, folic acid, and vitamin B12 compared to the Dietary Reference Intake (DRI) recommendations (2, 26, 2.5, and 13%, respectively). Conclusion: According to the poor dietary quality of bariatric surgery candidates, leading to nutritional deficiencies pre-operatively, close monitoring and tailored supplementation pre- and post-bariatric surgery are required.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, food frequency questionnaire, obesity, nutritional status

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2189 Occupational Health Programs for Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining: A Systematic Review for the WHO Global Plan of Action for Workers' Health

Authors: Vivian W. L. Tsang, Karen Lockhart, Samuel Spiegel, Annalee Yassi

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Background: Workers in the informal economy often incur exposure to well-documented occupational health hazards. Insufficient attention has been afforded to rigorously evaluating intervention programs to reduce the risks, especially in artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM). Objectives: This systematic review, conducted as part of the World Health Organization’s Global Plan of Action for Workers’ Health, sought to assess the state of knowledge on occupational health programs and interventions for the informal artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector, an occupation which directly employs at least 50 million people. Methods: We used a comprehensive search strategy for four well-known databases relevant to health outcomes: PubMed, Engineering Village, OVID Medline, and Web of Science, and employed the PRISMA framework for our analysis. Findings: Ten studies met the inclusion criteria of a primary study focused on assessing the impact of interventions addressing occupational health concerns in ASGM. There were no studies evaluating or even identifying comprehensive occupational health and safety programs for this sector, although target interventions addressing specific hazards exist. Major areas of intervention –education and introduction of mercury-reducing/eliminating technology were identified, and the challenges and limitations of each intervention taken into the assessment. Even for these, however, there was a lack of standardization for measuring outcome or impact, let alone long-term health outcomes for miners and mining communities. Conclusion: There is an urgent need for research on comprehensive occupational health programs addressing the array of hazards faced by artisanal and small-scale miners.

Keywords: informal economy, artisanal and small-scale gold mining, occupational health, health and safety, workplace safety

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2188 Epidemiology of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma in Pakistan: Incidence, Clinical Subtypes, Tumor Stage and Localization

Authors: Warda Jabeen, Romaisa Shamim Khan, Osama Shakeel, Ahmed Faraz Bhatti, Raza Hussain

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Background: The worldwide incidence of cutaneous melanoma (CM) has been on the rise over the past few decades. Primary prevention and early treatment remain the focus of management to reduce the burden of disease. This entails identification of risk factors to prompt early diagnosis. In Pakistan, there is a scarcity of clinico-pathological data relating to cutaneous malignant melanoma. Objective: The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients presenting with cutaneous malignant melanoma in Pakistan, and to compare the results with other studies. Method: Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre is currently the only dedicated cancer hospital in the country, accepting patients from all over Pakistan. Majority of the patients, however, belong to the northern half of the country. From the recorded data of the hospital, all cutaneous melanoma cases were identified and evaluated. Results: Between 1997 and 2017, a total of 169 cutaneous melanoma patients were registered at Shaukat Khanum. Mean age was 47.5 years. The highest incidence of melanoma was seen in the age group 40-59 years (n=69, 40.8%). Most commonly reported clinical subtype was unspecified melanoma (n=154, 91%). Amongst those in which T stage was reported, the most frequently observed T-stage at presentation was T4 (n=23, 13.6%). With regards to body distribution, in our study CM was seen most commonly in the lower limb including the hip. The yearly incidence of melanoma has increased/remained stable from 2007 to 2017. Conclusion: cutaneous malignant melanoma is a fairly common disease in Pakistan. Patients tend to present at a more advanced stage as compared to patients in developed countries. Identification of risk factors and tumor characteristics is therefore of paramount importance to deal with these patients.

Keywords: epidemiology of cutaneous malignant melanoma, cutaneous malignant melanoma, Pakistan, skin cancer

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2187 Serum MicroRNA and Inflammatory Mediators: Diagnostic Biomarkers for Endometritis in Arabian Mares

Authors: Sally Ibrahim, Mohamed Hedia, Mohamed Taqi, Mohamed Derbala, Karima Mahmoud, Youssef Ahmed, Sayed Ismail, Mohamed El-Belely

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The identification and quantification of serum microRNA (miRNA) from mares with endometritis might serve as useful and implementable clinical biomarkers for the early diagnosis of endometiritis. Aims of the current study were (I) to study the expression pattern of eca-miR-155, eca-miR-223, eca-miR-17, eca-miR-200a, and eca-miR-205, and (II) to determine the levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6), prostaglandins (PGF₂α and PGE₂), in the serum of Arabian mares with healthy and abnormal uterine status (endometritis). This study was conducted on 80 Arabian mares (4-14 years old). Mares were divided into 48 sub-fertile mares suspected of endometritis and 32 fertile at stud farms. The criteria for mares to be enrolled in the endometritis group were that they had been bred three or more times unsuccessfully in the breeding season or had a history of more than one year of reproductive failure. In addition, two or more of the following criteria on a checklist were present: abnormal clinical findings, transrectal ultrasonographic uterine examination showed abnormal fluid in the uterus (echogenic or ≥2 cm in diameter), positive endometrial cytology; and bacterial and/or fungal growth. Serum samples were collected for measuring IL-6, PGF₂α, and PGE₂ concentrations, as well as serum miRNA isolation and quantitative real-time PCR. Serum concentrations of IL-6, PGE₂, and PGF₂α were higher (P ≤ 0.001) in mares with endometritis compared to the control healthy ones. The expression profile of eca-miR-155, eca-miR-223, eca-miR-17, eca-miR-200a, and eca-miR-205 increased (P≤0.001) in mares with endometritis compared to the control ones. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that revealed that serum miRNA and serum inflammatory mediators (IL-6, PGE₂, and PGF₂α) could be used as non-invasive gold standard biomarkers, and therefore might be served as an important additional diagnostic tool for endometritis in Arabian mares. Moreover, estimation of the serum concentrations of serum miRNA, IL-6, PGE₂, and PGF₂α is a promising recommended tool during the breeding soundness examination in mares.

Keywords: Arabian Mares, endometritis, inflammatory mediators, serum miRNA

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2186 Factors Affecting Adequate Utilisation of Ante-natal Health Care Services among Pregnant Women in Dutsin-Ma Local Government Area of Katsina State

Authors: Ilim Moses Msughter

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The study was carried out to examine the availability of Ante-natal care services and the socio-cultural factors affecting the utilization of these services in Dutsin-Ma Local Government Area of Katsina State. Four specific objectives were outlined as thus to examine the availability of antenatal care services in Dutsin-Ma local government area, to identify the socio-cultural factors affecting the utilisation of ante-natal care services, to ascertain the challenges affecting utilisation of ante-natal care services and suggest strategies to improve efficiency in ante-natal service delivery and utilisation of same services. Data were collected from 110 respondents using a questionnaire and through the use of the interview. Data were analysed quantitatively and qualitatively. The findings revealed that ante-natal care services are available in the study area, but access to such services is hindered by several factors, which include religious and traditional beliefs, cost of services and poor attitudes of health care workers which has an adverse effect on people’s desire to visit ante-natal centres. The study recommended that Traditional Birth Attendants (TBA) need to be trained on how to handle pregnancy-related complications. It is also recommended that essential ante-natal drugs and services should be subsidised or made free by the government, and this must be closely monitored to ensure efficiency. Finally, human relation training should be organised for nurses and midwives to improve their attitudes towards patients during ante-natal visits.

Keywords: utilisation, religion, traditional birth attendant, ante-natal

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2185 CD133 and CD44 - Stem Cell Markers for Prediction of Clinically Aggressive Form of Colorectal Cancer

Authors: Ognen Kostovski, Svetozar Antovic, Rubens Jovanovic, Irena Kostovska, Nikola Jankulovski

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Introduction:Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) is one of the most common malignancies in the world. The cancer stem cell (CSC) markers are associated with aggressive cancer types and poor prognosis. The aim of study was to determine whether the expression of colorectal cancer stem cell markers CD133 and CD44 could be significant in prediction of clinically aggressive form of CRC. Materials and methods: Our study included ninety patients (n=90) with CRC. Patients were divided into two subgroups: with metatstatic CRC and non-metastatic CRC. Tumor samples were analyzed with standard histopathological methods, than was performed immunohistochemical analysis with monoclonal antibodies against CD133 and CD44 stem cell markers. Results: High coexpression of CD133 and CD44 was observed in 71.4% of patients with metastatic disease, compared to 37.9% in patients without metastases. Discordant expression of both markers was found in 8% of the subgroup with metastatic CRC, and in 13.4% of the subgroup without metastatic CRC. Statistical analyses showed a significant association of increased expression of CD133 and CD44 with the disease stage, T - category and N - nodal status. With multiple regression analysis the stage of disease was designate as a factor with the greatest statistically significant influence on expression of CD133 (p <0.0001) and CD44 (p <0.0001). Conclusion: Our results suggest that the coexpression of CD133 and CD44 have an important role in prediction of clinically aggressive form of CRC. Both stem cell markers can be routinely implemented in standard pathohistological diagnostics and can be useful markers for pre-therapeutic oncology screening.

Keywords: colorectal carcinoma, stem cells, CD133+, CD44+

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2184 Study on Science and Technology Resources Coordinated Development and Innovation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Authors: Hong Zhang, Runlian Miao, Min Zhang

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Coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is of great importance and has been emphasized by the government in recent years. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region accumulates a large part of S&T resources of the whole country and boasts the most influential achievements. In order to improve innovation capability of the region, universities, research institutions and enterprises from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have cooperated in many forms, but technological innovation is not so satisfactory due to unbalanced allocation, poor sharing and low utilization efficiency of S&T resources. Therefore, it’s very necessary to promote resources sharing, optimize their overall layout, and enhance their innovation performance, which can further deepen coordination development of the region. This study focuses on S&T resources with the methods of documents research plus field investigation and qualitative research combing plus quantitive research. It starts from the macro background of promoting coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and arrives at improving regional innovation capability. Firstly, the author makes a literature review on coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and summarizes that coordinated development has been carried forward in the major fields which lay foundation for regional innovation; secondly, analyzes current S&T resources distribution and coordinated innovation by taking key industries as the examples; based on analysis of the status quo of resources sharing and innovation in the region, the author points out problems and obstacles that holdbacks coordinated innovation of the region and at last raises some suggestions to resources sharing and regional innovation. It reaches the conclusion that an efficient management mechanism, market laws, favorable environment, model innovation and incentive measures can help to accelerate resources sharing and regional innovation in the region.

Keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, coordinated development, innovation, S&T resources

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2183 Discursive (Re/De)Construction of Objectivity-Subjectivity: Critiquing Rape/Flesh Trade-Documentaries

Authors: Muhammed Shahriar Haque

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As an offshoot of journalistic discourse, the documentary should be objective in nature without harbouring any preconceived notion to foster ulterior motifs. When it comes to a social issue like rape in South Asian countries, as media in recent times is inundated with this violent act in India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, how does one document it in terms of objectivity and subjectivity? The objective of this study is twofold: to document the history of documentaries, and to critically analyze South Asian rape/flesh trade-documentaries. The overall goal is to trace the (re/de)construction of objectivity-subjectivity in documentaries. This paper adopts a qualitative approach to documentarist discourse through the lens of critical discourse analysis (CDA). Data was gathered for 10 documentaries on the theme of rape and/or flesh trade from eight South Asian countries, predominantly the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region. The documentaries were primarily categorised by using three frameworks based on six modes, six subgenres, and four basic approaches of documentary. Subsequently, the findings were critiqued from CDA perspective. The outcome suggests that there a two schools of thoughts regarding documentaries. According to journalistic ethics, news and/or documentaries should be objective in orientation and focus on informing the audience and/common people. The empirical findings tend to challenge ethical parameters of objectivity. At times, it seems that journalistic discourse is discursively (re)constructed to give an augmented simulation of objectivity. Based on the findings it may be recommended that if documentaries steer away from empirical facts and indulge in poetic naivety, their credibility could be questioned. A research of this nature is significant as it raises questions with regard to ethical and moral conscience of documentary filmmakers. Furthermore, it looks at whether they uphold journalistic integrity or succumb to their bias, and thereby depict subjective views, which could be tainted with political and/or propagandist ulterior motifs.

Keywords: discursive (re/de)construction, documentaries, journalistic integrity, rape/flesh trade

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2182 Data Mining Model for Predicting the Status of HIV Patients during Drug Regimen Change

Authors: Ermias A. Tegegn, Million Meshesha

Abstract:

Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is a major cause of death for most African countries. Ethiopia is one of the seriously affected countries in sub Saharan Africa. Previously in Ethiopia, having HIV/AIDS was almost equivalent to a death sentence. With the introduction of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART), HIV/AIDS has become chronic, but manageable disease. The study focused on a data mining technique to predict future living status of HIV/AIDS patients at the time of drug regimen change when the patients become toxic to the currently taking ART drug combination. The data is taken from University of Gondar Hospital ART program database. Hybrid methodology is followed to explore the application of data mining on ART program dataset. Data cleaning, handling missing values and data transformation were used for preprocessing the data. WEKA 3.7.9 data mining tools, classification algorithms, and expertise are utilized as means to address the research problem. By using four different classification algorithms, (i.e., J48 Classifier, PART rule induction, Naïve Bayes and Neural network) and by adjusting their parameters thirty-two models were built on the pre-processed University of Gondar ART program dataset. The performances of the models were evaluated using the standard metrics of accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measure. The most effective model to predict the status of HIV patients with drug regimen substitution is pruned J48 decision tree with a classification accuracy of 98.01%. This study extracts interesting attributes such as Ever taking Cotrim, Ever taking TbRx, CD4 count, Age, Weight, and Gender so as to predict the status of drug regimen substitution. The outcome of this study can be used as an assistant tool for the clinician to help them make more appropriate drug regimen substitution. Future research directions are forwarded to come up with an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: HIV drug regimen, data mining, hybrid methodology, predictive model

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2181 The Colouration of Additive-Manufactured Polymer

Authors: Abisuga Oluwayemisi Adebola, Kerri Akiwowo, Deon de Beer, Kobus Van Der Walt

Abstract:

The convergence of additive manufacturing (AM) and traditional textile dyeing techniques has initiated innovative possibilities for improving the visual application and customization potential of 3D-printed polymer objects. Textile dyeing techniques have progressed to transform fabrics with vibrant colours and complex patterns over centuries. The layer-by-layer deposition characteristic of AM necessitates adaptations in dye application methods to ensure even colour penetration across complex surfaces. Compatibility between dye formulations and polymer matrices influences colour uptake and stability, demanding careful selection and testing of dyes for optimal results. This study investigates the development interaction between these areas, revealing the challenges and opportunities of applying textile dyeing methods to colour 3D-printed polymer materials. The method explores three innovative approaches to colour the 3D-printed polymer object: (a) Additive Manufacturing of a Prototype, (b) the traditional dyebath method, and (c) the contemporary digital sublimation technique. The results show that the layer lines inherent to AM interact with dyes differently and affect the visual outcome compared to traditional textile fibers. Skillful manipulation of textile dyeing methods and dye type used for this research reduced the appearance of these lines to achieve consistency and desirable colour outcomes. In conclusion, integrating textile dyeing techniques into colouring 3D-printed polymer materials connects historical craftsmanship with innovative manufacturing. Overcoming challenges of colour distribution, compatibility, and layer line management requires a holistic approach that blends the technical consistency of AM with the artistic sensitivity of textile dyeing. Hence, applying textile dyeing methods to 3D-printed polymers opens new dimensions of aesthetic and functional possibilities.

Keywords: polymer, 3D-printing, sublimation, textile, dyeing, additive manufacturing

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2180 The Predictability of Three Implants to Support a Fixed Prosthesis in the Edentulous Mandible

Authors: M. Hirani, M. Devine, O. Obisesan, C. Bryant

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Introduction: The use of four or more implants to support a fixed prosthesis in the edentulous mandible is well documented, with high levels of clinical outcomes recorded. Despite this, the use of three implant-supported fixed prostheses offers the potential to deliver a more cost-effective method of oral rehabilitation in the lower arch, an important consideration given that edentulism is most prevalent in low-income subpopulations. The purpose of this study aimed to evaluate the implant and prosthetic survival rate, changes in marginal bone level, and patient satisfaction associated with a three-implant-supported fixed prosthesis for rehabilitation of the edentulous mandible over a follow-up period of at least one year. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was performed to evaluate studies that met the selection criteria. The information extracted included the study design and population, participant demographics, observation period, loading protocol, and the number of implants placed together with the required outcome measures. Mean values and standard deviations (SD) were calculated using SPSS® (IBM Corporation, New York, USA), and the level of statistical significance across all comparative studies described was set at P < 0.05. Results: The eligible studies included a total of 1968 implants that were placed in 652 patients. The subjects ranged in age from 33-89 years, with a mean of 63.2 years. The mean cumulative implant and prosthetic survival rates were 95.5% and 96.2%, respectively, over a mean follow-up period of 3.25 years. The mean marginal bone loss recorded was 1.04 mm, and high patient satisfaction rates were reported across the studies. Conclusion: Current evidence suggests that a three implant-supported fixed prosthesis for the edentulous mandible is a successful treatment strategy presenting high implant and prosthetic survival rates over the short-to-medium term. Further well-designed controlled clinical trials are required to evaluate longer-term outcomes, with supplemental data correlating implant dimensions and prosthetic design.

Keywords: implants, mandible, fixed, prosthesis

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2179 Teleconsultations and The Need of Onsite Additional Medical Services

Authors: Cristina Hotoleanu

Abstract:

Introduction: The recent Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the development of e-health, including telemedicine, smartphone applications, and medical wearable devices. Providing remote teleconsultations supposes challenges which may require further face-to-face medical interactions. The aim of this study was to assess the correlation between the types of teleconsultations and the need of onsite medical services (investigations and medical visits) for the diagnosis and treatment. Methods: a retrospective study including all the teleconsultations using the platform offered by a telehealth provider in Romania (Telios Care SA) between May 1, 2021- April 30, 2022, was performed. Binary data were analysed using the chi-square test with a significance level of p < 0.05. Results: out of 7163 consultations, 3961 were phone calls, 1981 were online messages, and 1221 were video calls. Onsite medical services were indicated in 3327 (46.44%) cases; the onsite investigations or the onsite visits were recommended for 2908 patients as follows: 2326 in case of phone calls, 582 in case of online messages, none in case of video calls. Both onsite investigations and visits were indicated for 419 patients. The need for onsite additional medical services was significantly higher in the case of phone calls than in the other 2 types of teleconsultations (Chi square= 1207.06, p= 0.00001). The indication for onsite services was done mainly after teleconsultations covering medical specialties (87.34%), significantly higher than the other specialties (Chi square=914.59, p=0.00001). Teleconsultations in surgical specialties and other fields (pharmacy, dentistry, psychology, wellbeing- nutrition, fitness) resulted in 12.13%, respective less than 1%, indication for onsite investigations or visits, explained by using of video calls in most of the cases. Conclusion: a further onsite medical service was necessary in less than a half of the teleconsultations. This indication was done mainly after phone calls and teleconsultations in medical specialties. Video calls were used mostly in psychology, nutrition, and fitness teleconsultations and did not require a further onsite medical service. Other studies are necessary to assess better the types of teleconsultations and the specialties bringing the biggest benefit for the patients.

Keywords: onsite medical services, phone calls, teleconsultations, telemedicine

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2178 Extent of Knowledge, Preparedness and Perception on Telemedicine among Family Medicine Resident Physicians in Different Training Institutions in Cebu City, PH during COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Kristine Joy Y. Sumanga, Clarissa Mae D. Derecho

Abstract:

Telemedicine is providing health care services using electronic means at a distance, including the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of diseases as well as the research and evaluation and education of health care providers. The role of telemedicine in this time of the COVID-19 pandemic is vital, especially in the practice of medicine. General Objective: To determine the extent of knowledge, preparedness and perception of telemedicine among Family Medicine Resident Physicians in different training institutions in Cebu City during the Coronavirus Disease 19 pandemic. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional survey research study was conducted in four hospital training institutions in Cebu City. A total of 41 respondents gave their consent and were given the online survey questionnaire pertaining to the extent of knowledge, preparedness and perceptions on telemedicine, including respondents’ demographic data and problems encountered in Telemedicine. Results: Out of the 41 respondents, 56.10% were young adults (26 to 30 years old), mostly females (70.73%), single (68.29%), first-year residents (43.90%), employed at a government hospital (70.73%) and are in the traditional residency pathway (82.93%). On relevant experience, 82.93% experienced telemedicine during residency, with 100% on follow-up consultations, and 95% were consulted due to infections. Respondents’ extent of knowledge was average, while the extent of preparedness and perception were great. Problems with low connectivity (80.48%) were noted by most of the respondents. Conclusion: Resident physicians moderately understood the information about telemedicine but with a great extent of preparedness and perception. They are always prepared for telemedicine modality because they are fully aware of its existence and need in the delivery of health care services among their patients at the time of the pandemic. Challenges to low connectivity and handling patients’ data privacy were the major concerns met by the resident physicians in the use of telemedicine.

Keywords: telemedicine, knowledge, preparedness, perception, family medicine, residents, COVID 19

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2177 Endoscopic Ultrasound-Guided Choledochoduodenostomy in an Advanced Extrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Authors: Diego Carrasco, Catarina Freitas, Hugo Rio Tinto, Ricardo Rio Tinto, Nuno Couto, Joaquim Gago, Carlos Carvalho

Abstract:

Introduction: Endoscopic ultrasound-guided choledochoduodenostomy (EUS-CD) to drain the gallbladder can be a palliative care procedure for non-surgical oncologic patients with cholelithiasis and cholangitis process. Case description: A 59-years old Caucasian male diagnosed with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma with multiple liver, lung and peritoneum metastasis, unresponsive to treatment with gemcitabine/cisplatin, presented in the institution with fever, hypotension, and severe upper right abdominal pain secondary to cholelithiasis and cholangitis process. The patient was admitted and started on large spectrum antibiotics plus fluid-challenge. Afterward, a percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) was performed to drain the gallbladder. This procedure temporarily stabilized the patient. However, the definitive solution required gallbladder removal. Since the patient exhibited an advanced oncologic disease and poor response to the chemotherapy, he was not a candidate for surgical intervention. Diagnostic Pathways: A self-expanding metal stent was placed from the duodenum into the bile duct by endoscopic ultrasound-guided. The stent allowed efficient drainage of the contrast from the gallbladder at the end of the endoscopic procedure. Conclusion and Discussion: The stent allowed efficient drainage of the contrast from the gallbladder at the end of the endoscopic procedure and successfully reversed the cholangitis process. EUS-CD is an effective and safe technique and can be used as a palliative care procedure for non-surgical oncologic patients.

Keywords: palliative care, cholangiocarcinoma, choledochoduodenostomy, endoscopic ultrasound-guided

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2176 Lactate in Critically Ill Patients an Outcome Marker with Time

Authors: Sherif Sabri, Suzy Fawzi, Sanaa Abdelshafy, Ayman Nagah

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Introduction: Static derangements in lactate homeostasis during ICU stay have become established as a clinically useful marker of increased risk of hospital and ICU mortality. Lactate indices or kinetic alteration of the anaerobic metabolism make it a potential parameter to evaluate disease severity and intervention adequacy. This is an inexpensive and simple clinical parameter that can be obtained by a minimally invasive means. Aim of work: Comparing the predictive value of dynamic indices of hyperlactatemia in the first twenty four hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission with other static values are more commonly used. Patients and Methods: This study included 40 critically ill patients above 18 years old of both sexes with Hyperlactamia (≥ 2 m mol/L). Patients were divided into septic group (n=20) and low oxygen transport group (n=20), which include all causes of low-O2. Six lactate indices specifically relating to the first 24 hours of ICU admission were considered, three static indices and three dynamic indices. Results: There were no statistically significant differences among the two groups regarding age, most of the laboratory results including ABG and the need for mechanical ventilation. Admission lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group [37.5±11.4 versus 30.6±7.8 P-value 0.034]. Maximum lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group P-value (0.044). On the other hand absolute lactate (mg) was higher in septic group P-value (< 0.001). Percentage change of lactate was higher in the septic group (47.8±11.3) than the low-oxygen transport group (26.1±12.6) with highly significant P-value (< 0.001). Lastly, time weighted lactate was higher in the low-oxygen transport group (1.72±0.81) than the septic group (1.05±0.8) with significant P-value (0.012). There were statistically significant differences regarding lactate indices in survivors and non survivors, whether in septic or low-oxygen transport group. Conclusion: In critically ill patients, time weighted lactate and percent in lactate change in the first 24 hours can be an independent predictive factor in ICU mortality. Also, a rising compared to a falling blood lactate concentration over the first 24 hours can be associated with significant increase in the risk of mortality.

Keywords: critically ill patients, lactate indices, mortality in intensive care, anaerobic metabolism

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2175 Differential Diagnosis of Malaria and Dengue Fever on the Basis of Clinical Findings and Laboratory Investigations

Authors: Aman Ullah Khan, Muhammad Younus, Aqil Ijaz, Muti-Ur-Rehman Khan, Sayyed Aun Muhammad, Asif Idrees, Sanan Raza, Amar Nasir

Abstract:

Dengue fever and malaria are important vector-borne diseases of public health significance affecting millions of people around the globe. Dengue fever is caused by Dengue virus while malaria is caused by plasmodium protozoan. Generally, the consequences of Malaria are less severe compared to dengue fever. This study was designed to differentiate dengue fever and malaria on the basis of clinical and laboratory findings and to compare the changes in both diseases having different causative agents transmitted by the common vector. A total of 200 patients of dengue viral infection (120 males, 80 females) were included in this prospective descriptive study. The blood samples of the individuals were first screened for malaria by blood smear examination and then the negative samples were tested by anti-dengue IgM strip. The strip positive cases were further screened by IgM capture ELISA and their complete blood count including hemoglobin estimation (Hb), total and differential leukocyte counts (TLC and DLC), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and platelet counts were performed. On the basis of the severity of signs and symptoms, dengue virus infected patients were subdivided into dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) comprising 70 and 100 confirmed patients, respectively. On the other hand, 30 patients were found infected with Malaria while overall 120 patients showed thrombocytopenia. The patients of DHF were found to have more leucopenia, raised hemoglobin level and thrombocytopenia < 50,000/µl compared to the patients belonging to DF and malaria. On the basis of the outcomes of the study, it was concluded that patients affected by DF were at a lower risk of undergoing haematological disturbance than suffering from DHF. While, the patients infected by Malaria were found to have no significant change in their blood components.

Keywords: dengue fever, blood, serum, malaria, ELISA

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2174 Nonparametric Truncated Spline Regression Model on the Data of Human Development Index in Indonesia

Authors: Kornelius Ronald Demu, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

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Human Development Index (HDI) is a standard measurement for a country's human development. Several factors may have influenced it, such as life expectancy, gross domestic product (GDP) based on the province's annual expenditure, the number of poor people, and the percentage of an illiterate people. The scatter plot between HDI and the influenced factors show that the plot does not follow a specific pattern or form. Therefore, the HDI's data in Indonesia can be applied with a nonparametric regression model. The estimation of the regression curve in the nonparametric regression model is flexible because it follows the shape of the data pattern. One of the nonparametric regression's method is a truncated spline. Truncated spline regression is one of the nonparametric approach, which is a modification of the segmented polynomial functions. The estimator of a truncated spline regression model was affected by the selection of the optimal knots point. Knot points is a focus point of spline truncated functions. The optimal knots point was determined by the minimum value of generalized cross validation (GCV). In this article were applied the data of Human Development Index with a truncated spline nonparametric regression model. The results of this research were obtained the best-truncated spline regression model to the HDI's data in Indonesia with the combination of optimal knots point 5-5-5-4. Life expectancy and the percentage of an illiterate people were the significant factors depend to the HDI in Indonesia. The coefficient of determination is 94.54%. This means the regression model is good enough to applied on the data of HDI in Indonesia.

Keywords: generalized cross validation (GCV), Human Development Index (HDI), knots point, nonparametric regression, truncated spline

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2173 Research on Characteristics and Inventory Planning Counter-Measure of Mature Industrial Zones in the Background of China's New Normal

Authors: Dong Chen, Han Song, Tingting Wei

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Industrial zones have made significant contributions to the economic development of Chinese urban areas for decades. In the background of China's New Normal, numbers of mature industrial zones are stepping into a new stage of inventory development instead of increment development. The aim of this study is to discover new characteristics and problems and corresponding inventory planning guidance of mature industrial zones. A case of Yangzhou Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone is reported in this study. Based on a historical analysis and data analysis of land-use, it is found that land-use of the zone is near saturation and signs of land updating have begun to appear. It is observed that the zone is facing problems including disorder of land development, low economic productivity and single function. Through the data of economic output, tax contribution, industrial category, industry life cycle and environmental influence, a comprehensive assessment based on two dimensions, economic benefits and industrial matchup, is made upon every parcel in the zone. According to the assessment, the zone is divided into spatial units of the update with specific planning guidance. It comes to a conclusion as four directions of inventory planning guidance in mature industrial zones: moving industries with poor economic benefit and negative environmental influence, adding urban function and new industrial function to the zone, optimizing the function of important space, and restricting the mass layout of the real estate industry to provide space for industrial upgrading.

Keywords: China's new normal, mature industrial zones, land-use, inventory planning

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2172 Energy System Analysis Using Data-Driven Modelling and Bayesian Methods

Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

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The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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2171 Planning Railway Assets Renewal with a Multiobjective Approach

Authors: João Coutinho-Rodrigues, Nuno Sousa, Luís Alçada-Almeida

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Transportation infrastructure systems are fundamental in modern society and economy. However, they need modernizing, maintaining, and reinforcing interventions which require large investments. In many countries, accumulated intervention delays arise from aging and intense use, being magnified by financial constraints of the past. The decision problem of managing the renewal of large backlogs is common to several types of important transportation infrastructures (e.g., railways, roads). This problem requires considering financial aspects as well as operational constraints under a multidimensional framework. The present research introduces a linear programming multiobjective model for managing railway infrastructure asset renewal. The model aims at minimizing three objectives: (i) yearly investment peak, by evenly spreading investment throughout multiple years; (ii) total cost, which includes extra maintenance costs incurred from renewal backlogs; (iii) priority delays related to work start postponements on the higher priority railway sections. Operational constraints ensure that passenger and freight services are not excessively delayed from having railway line sections under intervention. Achieving a balanced annual investment plan, without compromising the total financial effort or excessively postponing the execution of the priority works, was the motivation for pursuing the research which is now presented. The methodology, inspired by a real case study and tested with real data, reflects aspects of the practice of an infrastructure management company and is generalizable to different types of infrastructure (e.g., railways, highways). It was conceived for treating renewal interventions in infrastructure assets, which is a railway network may be rails, ballasts, sleepers, etc.; while a section is under intervention, trains must run at reduced speed, causing delays in services. The model cannot, therefore, allow for an accumulation of works on the same line, which may cause excessively large delays. Similarly, the lines do not all have the same socio-economic importance or service intensity, making it is necessary to prioritize the sections to be renewed. The model takes these issues into account, and its output is an optimized works schedule for the renewal project translatable in Gantt charts The infrastructure management company provided all the data for the first test case study and validated the parameterization. This case consists of several sections to be renewed, over 5 years and belonging to 17 lines. A large instance was also generated, reflecting a problem of a size similar to the USA railway network (considered the largest one in the world), so it is not expected that considerably larger problems appear in real life; an average of 25 years backlog and ten years of project horizon was considered. Despite the very large increase in the number of decision variables (200 times as large), the computational time cost did not increase very significantly. It is thus expectable that just about any real-life problem can be treated in a modern computer, regardless of size. The trade-off analysis shows that if the decision maker allows some increase in max yearly investment (i.e., degradation of objective ii), solutions improve considerably in the remaining two objectives.

Keywords: transport infrastructure, asset renewal, railway maintenance, multiobjective modeling

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