Search results for: logistic regression with IV

Authors: Mehmet Alpaslan Köroğlu, Musa Hakan Arslan, Muslu Kazım Körez

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Basic objective of this study is to create a regression analysis method that can estimate the length of a plastic hinge which is an important design parameter, by making use of the outcomes of (lateral load-lateral displacement hysteretic curves) the experimental studies conducted for the reinforced square concrete columns. For this aim, 170 different square reinforced concrete column tests results have been collected from the existing literature. The parameters which are thought affecting the plastic hinge length such as cross-section properties, features of material used, axial loading level, confinement of the column, longitudinal reinforcement bars in the columns etc. have been obtained from these 170 different square reinforced concrete column tests. In the study, when determining the length of plastic hinge, using the experimental test results, a regression analysis have been separately tested and compared with each other. In addition, the outcome of mentioned methods on determination of plastic hinge length of the reinforced concrete columns has been compared to other methods available in the literature.

Keywords: columns, plastic hinge length, regression analysis, reinforced concrete

Procedia PDF Downloads 479

Authors: Sintayehu Aynalem Aseres, Raminder Kaur Sira

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Increasingly, protected areas have been confronting with inadequate conservation funds that make it tough to antithesis the continuing of annihilation. The problem is even grave in developing countries, where Protected Areas (Pas) are mainly government-administered. Subsequently, it needs a strong effort to toughen the self-financing capability of PAs by ripening alternative sources of sustainable financing for realizing the conservation goals, in particular, to save the remaining natural planet. This study, therefore, designed to estimate visitors’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the additional conservation fees using a contingent valuation method. The effect relationship between WTP and both socio-demographic and non-economic factors was scrutinized by binary logistic regression. The mean WTP of foreign visitors has estimated at US$ 7.4 and for that of domestic visitors at US$1, with annual aggregate revenue of US$29, 200. The WTP was strongly influenced by income, satisfaction, environmental concern and attitude. The study has policy implications for the conservationists and park authorities to estimate the non-use values of PAs for developing market-based conservation instruments.

Keywords: conservation, ecotourism, sustainable financing, willingness to pay, protected areas, bale mountains national park

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Authors: Christopher Manyamba

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Women in Malawi produce perform between 50-70 percent of all agricultural tasks and yet the majority remain food insecure. The aim of his paper is to build on existing mixed evidence that indicates that empowering women in agriculture is conducive to improving food security. The WEAI is used to provide evidence on the relationship between women’s empowerment in agriculture and household food security. A multinomial logistic regression is applied to the Women Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) components and the Household Hunger Scale. The overall results show that the WEAI can be used to determine household food insecurity; however it has to be contextually adapted. Assets ownership, credit, group membership and leisure time are positively associated with food security. Contrary to other literature, empowerment in having control and decisions on income indicate negative association with household food security. These results could potentially better inform public, private and civil society stakeholders’ dialogues in creating the most effective and sustainable interventions to help women attain long-term food security.

Keywords: food security, gender, empowerment, agriculture index, framework for African food security, household hunger scale

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Authors: M. Ouassaf, S. Belaid

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A series of quinoline derivatives with antimalarial activity were subjected to two-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (2D-QSAR) studies. Three models were implemented using multiple regression linear MLR, a regression partial least squares (PLS), nonlinear regression (MNLR), to see which descriptors are closely related to the activity biologic. We relied on a principal component analysis (PCA). Based on our results, a comparison of the quality of, MLR, PLS, and MNLR models shows that the MNLR (R = 0.914 and R² = 0.835, RCV= 0.853) models have substantially better predictive capability because the MNLR approach gives better results than MLR (R = 0.835 and R² = 0,752, RCV=0.601)), PLS (R = 0.742 and R² = 0.552, RCV=0.550) The model of MNLR gave statistically significant results and showed good stability to data variation in leave-one-out cross-validation. The obtained results suggested that our proposed model MNLR may be useful to predict the biological activity of derivatives of quinoline.

Keywords: antimalarial, quinoline, QSAR, PCA, MLR , MNLR, MLR

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Authors: Noppawan Piaseu, Surat Komindr

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This study aimed to determine factors predicting food insecurity in older Thai women living in crowded urban communities. Through purposive sampling, 315 participants were recruited from community dwelling older women in Bangkok, Thailand. Data collection included interview from questionnaires and anthropometric measurement. Results showed that approximately half of the sample were 60-69 years old (51.1%), married (50.6%), obtained primary education (52.3%), had low family income (51.7%), lived in poor physical environment (49.9%) with normal body mass index (51.0%). Logistic regression analysis revealed that older women who were widowed/divorced/separated (OR = 1.804, 95% CI = 1.052-3.092, p = .032), who reported low family income (OR =.654, 95% CI = .523-.817, p < .001), and who had poor physical environment surrounding home (OR = 2.338, 95% CI = 1.057-5.171, p = .036) were more likely to have food insecurity. Results support that social and environmental factors are major factors predicting food insecurity in older women living in the urban community. Health professionals need to identify and monitor psychosocial, economic and environmental dimensions of food insecurity among them.

Keywords: food insecurity, older women, urban communities, Thailand

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Authors: Oscar E. Cariceo, Claudia V. Casal

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Machine learning offers a set of techniques to promote social work interventions and can lead to support decisions of practitioners in order to predict new behaviors based on data produced by the organizations, services agencies, users, clients or individuals. Machine learning techniques include a set of generalizable algorithms that are data-driven, which means that rules and solutions are derived by examining data, based on the patterns that are present within any data set. In other words, the goal of machine learning is teaching computers through 'examples', by training data to test specifics hypothesis and predict what would be a certain outcome, based on a current scenario and improve that experience. Machine learning can be classified into two general categories depending on the nature of the problem that this technique needs to tackle. First, supervised learning involves a dataset that is already known in terms of their output. Supervising learning problems are categorized, into regression problems, which involve a prediction from quantitative variables, using a continuous function; and classification problems, which seek predict results from discrete qualitative variables. For social work research, machine learning generates predictions as a key element to improving social interventions on complex social issues by providing better inference from data and establishing more precise estimated effects, for example in services that seek to improve their outcomes. This paper exposes the results of a classification algorithm to predict cyberbullying among adolescents. Data were retrieved from the National Polyvictimization Survey conducted by the government of Chile in 2017. A logistic regression model was created to predict if an adolescent would experience cyberbullying based on the interaction and behavior of gender, age, grade, type of school, and self-esteem sentiments. The model can predict with an accuracy of 59.8% if an adolescent will suffer cyberbullying. These results can help to promote programs to avoid cyberbullying at schools and improve evidence based practice.

Keywords: cyberbullying, evidence based practice, machine learning, social work research

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Authors: Davod Ahmadi, Narges Ebadi, Ethan Wang, Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez

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Compared to the other Least Developed Countries (LDCs), major countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have limited access to the clean water. People in this region, and more specifically females, suffer from acute water scarcity problems. They are compelled to spend too much of their time bringing water for domestic use like drinking and washing. Apart from domestic use, water through affecting agriculture and livestock contributes to the food security status of people in vulnerable regions like SSA. Livestock needs water to grow, and agriculture requires enormous quantities of water for irrigation. The main objective of this study is to explore the association between access to water and individuals’ food security status. Data from 2017 Gallup World Poll (GWP) for SSA were analyzed (n=35,000). The target population in GWP is the entire civilian, non-institutionalized, aged 15 and older population. All samples selection is probability based and nationally representative. The Gallup surveys an average of 1,000 samples of individuals per country. Three questions related to water (i.e., water quality, availability of water for crops and availability of water for livestock) were used as the exposure variables. Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) was used as the outcome variable. FIES measures individuals’ food security status, and it is composed of eight questions with simple dichotomous responses (1=Yes and 0=No). Different statistical analyses such as descriptive, crosstabs and binary logistic regression, form the basis of this study. Results from descriptive analyses showed that more than 50% of the respondents had no access to enough water for crops and livestock. More than 85% of respondents were categorized as “food insecure”. Findings from cross-tabulation analyses showed that food security status was significantly associated with water quality (0.135; P=0.000), water for crops (0.106; P=0.000) and water for livestock (0.112; P=0.000). In regression analyses, the probability of being food insecure increased among people who expressed no satisfaction with water quality (OR=1.884 (OR=1.768-2.008)), not enough water for crops (OR=1.721 (1.616-1.834)) and not enough water for livestock (OR=1.706 (1.819)). In conclusion, it should note that water access affects food security status in SSA.

Keywords: water access, agriculture, livestock, FIES

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Authors: Mikiyas Adugna

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Effort estimation is among the activities carried out in software development processes. An accurate model of estimation leads to project success. The method of agile effort estimation is a complex task because of the dynamic nature of software development. Researchers are still conducting studies on agile effort estimation to enhance prediction accuracy. Due to these reasons, we investigated and proposed a model on LASSO and Elastic Net regression to enhance estimation accuracy. The proposed model has major components: preprocessing, train-test split, training with default parameters, and cross-validation. During the preprocessing phase, the entire dataset is normalized. After normalization, a train-test split is performed on the dataset, setting training at 80% and testing set to 20%. We chose two different phases for training the two algorithms (Elastic Net and LASSO) regression following the train-test-split. In the first phase, the two algorithms are trained using their default parameters and evaluated on the testing data. In the second phase, the grid search technique (the grid is used to search for tuning and select optimum parameters) and 5-fold cross-validation to get the final trained model. Finally, the final trained model is evaluated using the testing set. The experimental work is applied to the agile story point dataset of 21 software projects collected from six firms. The results show that both Elastic Net and LASSO regression outperformed the compared ones. Compared to the proposed algorithms, LASSO regression achieved better predictive performance and has acquired PRED (8%) and PRED (25%) results of 100.0, MMRE of 0.0491, MMER of 0.0551, MdMRE of 0.0593, MdMER of 0.063, and MSE of 0.0007. The result implies LASSO regression algorithm trained model is the most acceptable, and higher estimation performance exists in the literature.

Keywords: agile software development, effort estimation, elastic net regression, LASSO

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Authors: Shivam Kushwaha, Veena Bansal

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Timeshare refers to real estate that is owned simultaneously by many, for a specified time in a year, for a specified numbers of years and is maintained and managed by an agency. Timeshare falls under the umbrella of tourism and is often used for vacation. Timeshare industry has attracted significantly less number of customers in India as compared to the US and Europe. In more than 40 years of existence of timeshare industry, it has not been able to grow its roots among Indian customers. The purpose of the study: To explore perception of Indian customers towards the adoption of timeshare segment of the hospitality industry and identify the factors. Source of data: Survey has been done on existing owners of holidays memberships, resorts or those who at least tourism experience in their past purchases. Methodology: Logistic Regression is used to predict binary responses of the customers based on identified critical factors which might influence timeshare purchases. Result: The study identified four factors: discretionary income, exchange options, ownership pride, risk, and measured their influence on intention to purchases in India. It is recognized that is all four variables are statistically significant while explaining in purchase intentions of customers in India.

Keywords: timeshare, holiday, tourism, customer perception, intent to use, Indian tourism

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Authors: Rene Valdiviezo-Issa

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In this paper, we use Mexico’s Households Income and Expenditures (ENIGH) survey to explain the behaviour that the urban-rural expenditure gap has had since Mexico’s incorporation to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994 and we compare it with the latest available survey, which took place in 2014. We use real trimestral expenditure per capita (RTEPC) as the measure of welfare. We use quantile regressions and a quantile regression decomposition to describe the gap between urban and rural distributions of log RTEPC. We discover that the decrease in the difference between the urban and rural distributions of log RTEPC, or inequality, is motivated because of a deprivation of the urban areas, in very specific characteristics, rather than an improvement of the urban areas. When using the decomposition we observe that the gap is primarily brought about because differences in returns to covariates between the urban and rural areas.

Keywords: quantile regression, urban-rural inequality, inequality in Mexico, income decompositon

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Authors: Li Wang, Dan Shu, Shiguang Pang, Lixiu Wang, Bing Xiang Yang, Qian Liu

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Background: Cancer is one of the most severe diseases in childhood; long-term treatment and its side effects significantly impact the patient's physical, psychological, social functioning and quality of life while also placing substantial physical and psychological burdens on caregivers and families. Family resilience is crucial for children with cancer, helping them cope better with the disease and supporting the family in facing challenges together. As a family-level variable, family resilience requires information from multiple family members. However, to our best knowledge, there is currently no research investigating family resilience from both the perspectives of pediatric cancer patients and their caregivers. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the family resilience and quality of life of pediatric cancer patients from a patient–caregiver dyadic perspective. Methods: A total of 149 dyads of patients diagnosed with pediatric cancer patients and their principal caregivers were recruited from oncology departments of 4 tertiary hospitals in Wuhan and Taiyuan, China. All participants completed questionnaires that identified their demographic and clinical characteristics as well as assessed their family resilience and quality of life for both the patients and their caregivers. K-means cluster analysis was used to identify different clusters of family resilience based on the reports from patients and caregivers. Multivariate logistic regression and linear regression are used to analyze the factors influencing family resilience and quality of life, as well as the relationship between the two. Results: Three clusters of family resilience were identified: a cluster of high family resilience (HR), a cluster of low family resilience (LR), and a cluster of discrepant family resilience (DR). Most (67.1%) families fell into the cluster with low resilience. Characteristics such as the types of caregivers perceived social support of the patient were different among the three clusters. Compared to the LR group, families where the mother is the caregiver and where the patient has high social support are more likely to be assigned to the HR. The quality of life for caregivers was consistently highest in the HR cluster and lowest in the LR cluster. The patient's quality of life is not related to family resilience. In the linear regression analysis of the patient's quality of life, patients who are the first-born have higher quality of life, while those living with their parents have lower quality of life. The participants' characteristics were not associated with the quality of life for caregivers. Conclusions: In most families, family resilience was low. Families with maternal caregivers and patients receiving high levels of social support are more inclined to be higher levels of family resilience. Family resilience was linked to the quality of life of caregivers of pediatric cancer patients. The clinical implications of this findings suggest that healthcare and social support organizations should prioritize and support the participation of mothers in caregiving responsibilities. Furthermore, they should assist families in accessing social support to enhance family resilience. This study also emphasizes the importance of promoting family resilience for enhancing family health and happiness, as well as improving the quality of life for caregivers.

Keywords: pediatric cancer, cluster analysis, family resilience, quality of life

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Authors: Farzad Jalilian, Mehdi Mirzaei Alavijeh, Fazel Zinat Motlagh

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Social support is an important benchmark of health for people in avoidance conditions. The main goal of this study was to determine the three kinds of social support (family, friend and other significant) to drug cessation among male addicts, in Kermanshah, the west of Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted among 132 addicts, randomly selected to participate voluntarily in the study. Data were collected from conduct interviews based on standard questionnaire and analyzed by using SPSS-18 at 95% significance level. The majority of addicts were young (Mean: 30.4 years), and with little education. Opium (36.4%), Crack (21.2%), and Methamphetamine (12.9%) were the predominant drugs. Inabilities to reject the offer and having addict friends are the most often reasons for drug usage. Almost, 18.9% reported history of drug injection. 43.2% of the participants already did drug cessation at least once. Logistic regression showed the family support (OR = 1.110), age (OR = 1.106) and drug use initiation age (OR = 0.918) was predicting drug cessation. Our result showed; family support is a more important effect among types of social support in drug cessation. It seems that providing educational program to addict’s families for more support of patients at drug cessation can be beneficial.

Keywords: drug cessation, family support, drug use, initiation age

Procedia PDF Downloads 550

Authors: Yuri Teraoka, Cheerawit Rattanapan, Aroonsri Mongkolchati

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This cross sectional analytic study was carried out to determine factors related to protective behavior on indoor pollution among pregnant women in Nakhon Pathom province, Thailand. A total of 319 pregnant women were enrolled at three antenatal care clinics in community hospital. Data were collected using simple random sampling from April 2015 to May 2015 using a structured self-administration questionnaire by well-trained research assistants. The result showed that around 73% pregnant women showed low level of low protective behavior on indoor pollution. Chi-square and multiple logistic regression were used to examine the factors and protective behavior on indoor pollution. After adjusting for confounding factors, this study found that tobacco smoking before pregnancy (AOR=2.15, 95% CI: 0.78-5.95) and low environmental health hazard (AOR=1.94, 95% CI: 1.09-3.49) were significant factors related to protective behavior on indoor pollution among pregnant women (p-value < 0.05). In conclusion, this study suggested that environmental health education campaign and environmental implementation program among pregnant woman are needed.

Keywords: Thailand, environmental health, protective behavior, pregnant women

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Authors: Şule Turhan, Özlem Turan

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Permanence in the international markets for many global companies is about being known as having effective logistics which targets customer satisfaction management and lower costs. Under competitive conditions, the necessity of providing the products to customers quickly and on time for the companies which constantly aim to improve their profitability increased the strategic importance of the logistics concept. Food logistic is one of the most difficult areas in logistics. In the process from manufacturer to final consumer, quality and hygiene standards must be provided constantly. In food logistics, reliable and extensive service network has great importance and on time delivery is the target. Developing logistics industry provide the supply of foods in the country and the development of export markets more quickly and has an important role in providing added value to the country's economy. Turkey that creates a bridge between the east and the west is an attractive market for logistics companies. In this study, by examining both the place and the importance of logistics in Turkish food sector, recommendations will be made for the food industry.

Keywords: logistics, Turkish food industry, competition, food industry

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Authors: Medan Isaeva, Anna Degtyareva

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Context: Biliary atresia is a common reason for liver transplants in children, and the Kasai procedure can potentially be successful in avoiding the need for transplantation. However, it is important to identify factors that influence surgical outcomes in order to optimize treatment and improve patient outcomes. Research aim: The aim of this study was to develop prognostic models to assess the outcomes of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Methodology: This retrospective study analyzed data from 166 children with biliary atresia who underwent the Kasai procedure between 2002 and 2021. The effectiveness of the operation was assessed based on specific criteria, including post-operative stool color, jaundice reduction, and bilirubin levels. The study involved a comparative analysis of various parameters, such as gestational age, birth weight, age at operation, physical development, liver and spleen sizes, and laboratory values including bilirubin, ALT, AST, and others, measured pre- and post-operation. Ultrasonographic evaluations were also conducted pre-operation, assessing the hepatobiliary system and related quantitative parameters. The study was carried out by two experienced specialists in pediatric hepatology. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were used as the primary statistical methods. Findings: The study identified several statistically significant predictors of a successful Kasai procedure, including the presence of the gallbladder and levels of cholesterol and direct bilirubin post-operation. A detectable gallbladder was associated with a higher probability of surgical success, while elevated post-operative cholesterol and direct bilirubin levels were indicative of a reduced chance of positive outcomes. Theoretical importance: The findings of this study contribute to the optimization of treatment strategies for children with biliary atresia undergoing the Kasai procedure. By identifying early predictive signs of success, clinicians can modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Data collection and analysis procedures: Data for this analysis were obtained from the health records of patients who received the Kasai procedure. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were employed to analyze the data and identify significant predictors. Question addressed: The study addressed the question of identifying predictive factors for the success of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Conclusion: The developed prognostic models serve as valuable tools for early detection of patients who are less likely to benefit from the Kasai procedure. This enables clinicians to modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Potential limitations of the study: The study has several limitations. Its retrospective nature may introduce biases and inconsistencies in data collection. Being single centered, the results might not be generalizable to wider populations due to variations in surgical and postoperative practices. Also, other potential influencing factors beyond the clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic parameters considered in this study were not explored, which could affect the outcomes of the Kasai operation. Future studies could benefit from including a broader range of factors.

Keywords: biliary atresia, kasai operation, prognostic model, native liver survival

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Authors: Reza Zakerinejad

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Gully erosion is a serious problem that threading the sustainability of agricultural area and rangeland and water in a large part of Iran. This type of water erosion is the main source of sedimentation in many catchment areas in the north of Iran. Since in many national assessment approaches just qualitative models were applied the aim of this study is to predict the spatial distribution of gully erosion processes by means of detail terrain analysis and GIS -based logistic regression in the loess deposition in a case study in the Golestan Province. This study the DEM with 25 meter result ion from ASTER data has been used. The Landsat ETM data have been used to mapping of land use. The TreeNet model as a stochastic modeling was applied to prediction the susceptible area for gully erosion. In this model ROC we have set 20 % of data as learning and 20 % as learning data. Therefore, applying the GIS and satellite image analysis techniques has been used to derive the input information for these stochastic models. The result of this study showed a high accurate map of potential for gully erosion.

Keywords: TreeNet model, terrain analysis, Golestan Province, Iran

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Authors: Yenni Anggrayni

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The lack of awareness of the significant prevalence of school absenteeism in Indonesia, which ultimately results in high rates of school dropouts, is an unresolved issue. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the root causes of chronic absenteeism qualitatively and quantitatively using the bioecological systems paradigm in secondary schools for any reason. This study used an open-ended questionnaire to collect data from 1,148 students in six West Java Province districts/cities. Univariate and stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses produced a prediction model for the components. Analysis results show that poor teacher-student relationships, bullying by peers or teachers, negative perception of education, and lack of parental involvement in learning activities are the leading causes of chronic absenteeism. Another finding is to promote home-school partnerships to improve school climate and parental involvement in learning to address chronic absenteeism.

Keywords: bullying, chronic absenteeism, dropout of school, home-school partnerships, parental involvement

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Authors: Liaquat Ahmad, Muhammad Aslam, Muhammad Azam

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In this article, we propose a control chart based on repetitive group sampling scheme for the location parameter. This charting scheme is based on the regression estimator; an estimator that capitalize the relationship between the variables of interest to provide more sensitive control than the commonly used individual variables. The control limit coefficients have been estimated for different sample sizes for less and highly correlated variables. The monitoring of the production process is constructed by adopting the procedure of the Shewhart’s x-bar control chart. Its performance is verified by the average run length calculations when the shift occurs in the average value of the estimator. It has been observed that the less correlated variables have rapid false alarm rate.

Keywords: average run length, control charts, process shift, regression estimators, repetitive group sampling

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Authors: Hosen Tilat Mahal, Monir Hossain

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Despite being a food-sufficient country after revolutionary changes in agricultural inputs, Bangladesh still has food insecurity and undernutrition. This study examines the association between agricultural practices (as social practices) and food security concentrating on the potential impact of sociodemographic factors and climate change. Using data from the 2012 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS), this study shows how modifiedagricultural practices are strongly associated with climate change and different sociodemographic factors (land ownership, religion, gender, education, and occupation) subsequently affect the status of food security in Bangladesh. We used linear and logistic regression models to analyze the association between modified agricultural practices and food security. The findings indicate that socioeconomic statuses are significant predictors of determining agricultural practices in a society like Bangladesh and control food security at the household level. Moreover, climate change is adversely impactingeven the modified agricultural and food security association version. We conclude that agricultural practices must consider climate change while boosting food security. Therefore, future research should integrate climate change into the agriculture and food-related mitigation and resiliency models.

Keywords: food security, agricultural productivity, climate change, bangladesh

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Authors: Danika Tynes

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Telehealth is a promising advancement in health care, though there are certain conditions under which telehealth has a greater chance of success. This research sought to further the understanding of what conditions compel the success of telehealth adoption at the systems level applying Diffusion of Innovations (DoI) theory (Rogers, 1962). System-level indicators were selected to represent four components of DoI theory (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, and observability) and regressed on 5 types of telehealth (teleradiology, teledermatology, telepathology, telepsychology, and remote monitoring) using multiple logistic regression. The analyses supported relative advantage and compatibility as the strongest influencers of telehealth adoption, remote monitoring in particular. These findings help to quantitatively clarify the factors influencing the adoption of innovation and advance the ability to make recommendations on the viability of state telehealth adoption. In addition, results indicate when DoI theory is most applicable to the understanding of telehealth diffusion. Ultimately, this research may contribute to more focused allocation of scarce health care resources through consideration of existing state conditions available foster innovation.

Keywords: adoption, diffusion of innovation theory, remote monitoring, system-level indicators

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Authors: Ing-Jen Hung, Tzu-Chien Wang

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Nowadays, customers can interact with firms through miscellaneous online ads on different channels easily. In other words, customer now has innumerable options and limitless time to accomplish their commercial activities with firms, individualizing their own online customer journey. This kind of convenience emphasizes the importance of online advertisement allocation on different channels. Therefore, profound understanding of customer behavior can make considerable benefit from optimizing fund allocation on diverse ad channels. To achieve this objective, multiple firms utilize numerical methodology to create data-driven advertisement policy. In our research, we aim to exploit online customer click data to discover the correlations between each channel and their sequential relations. We use LSTM to deal with sequential property of our data and compare its accuracy with other non-sequential methods, such as CART decision tree, logistic regression, etc. Besides, we also classify our customers into several groups by their behavioral characteristics to perceive the differences between all groups as customer portrait. As a result, we discover distinct customer journey under each customer portrait. Our article provides some insights into marketing research and can help firm to formulate online advertising criteria.

Keywords: LSTM, customer journey, marketing, channel ads

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Authors: Gianna Zou

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Propensity score matching (PSM), introduced by Paul R. Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin in 1983, is a popular statistical matching technique which tries to estimate the treatment effects by taking into account covariates that could impact the efficacy of study medication in clinical trials. PSM can be used to reduce the bias due to confounding variables. However, PSM assumes that the response values are normally distributed. In some cases, this assumption may not be held. In this paper, a machine learning method - Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART), is used as a more robust method of matching. BART can work well when models are misspecified since it can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects. Moreover, it has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multiway interactions. In this research, a BART Matching Method (BMM) is proposed to provide a more reliable matching method over PSM. By comparing the analysis results from PSM and BMM, BMM can perform well and has better prediction capability when the response values are not normally distributed.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, matching, regression

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Authors: Vashti Carissa

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The main objective of this study is to examine whether the life-cycle theory of dividends could explain the determinant of an optimal dividend policy in Indonesia. The sample that was used consists of 1,420 non-financial and non-trade, services, investment firms listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period of 2005-2014. According to this finding using logistic regression, firm life-cycle measured by retained earnings as a proportion of total equity (RETE) significantly has a positive effect on the propensity of a firm pays dividend. The higher company’s earned surplus portion in its capital structure could reflect firm maturity level which will increase the likelihood of dividend payment in mature firms. This result provides an additional empirical evidence about the existence of life-cycle theory of dividends for dividend payout phenomenon in Indonesia. It can be known that dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while retention is more dominating in growth firms. From the testing results, it can also be known that majority of sample firms are being in the growth phase which proves the fact about infrequent dividend distribution in Indonesia during the ten years observation period.

Keywords: dividend, dividend policy, life-cycle theory of dividends, mix of earned and contributed capital

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Authors: Gizem İntepe, Eti Mizrahi

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Investment and financing decisions are influenced by various economic features. Detailed analysis should be conducted in order to make decisions not only by companies but also by governments. Such analysis can be conducted either at the company level or on a sectoral basis to reduce risks and to maximize profits. Sectoral disaggregation caused by seasonality effects, subventions, data advantages or disadvantages may appear in sectors behaving parallel to BIST (Borsa Istanbul stock exchange) Index. Proposed logistic indices could serve market needs as a decision parameter in sectoral basis and also helps forecasting activities in import export volume changes. Also it is an indicator of logistic activity, which is also a sign of economic mobility at the national level. Publicly available data from “Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communications” and “Turkish Statistical Institute” is utilized to obtain five logistics indices namely as; exLogistic, imLogistic, fLogistic, dLogistic and cLogistic index. Then, efficiency and reliability of these indices are tested.

Keywords: economic activity, export trade data, import trade data, logistics indices

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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the paper concentrations on the importance of hourly compensation, emphasizing the significance of the unemployment rate. There are the two most important factors of a nation these are its unemployment rate and hourly compensation. These are not merely statistics but they have profound effects on individual, families, and the economy. They are inversely related to one another. When we consider the unemployment rate that will probably decline as hourly compensations in manufacturing rise. But when we reduced the unemployment rates and increased job prospects could result from higher compensation. That’s why, the increased hourly compensation in the manufacturing sector that could have a favorable effect on job changing issues. Moreover, the relationship between hourly compensation and unemployment is complex and influenced by broader economic factors. In this paper, we use panel data regression models to evaluate the expected link between hourly compensation and unemployment rate in order to determine the effect of hourly compensation on unemployment rate. We estimate the fixed effects model, evaluate the error components, and determine which model (the FEM or ECM) is better by pooling all 60 observations. We then analysis and review the data by comparing 3 several countries (United States, Canada and the United Kingdom) using panel data regression models. Finally, we provide result, analysis and a summary of the extensive research on how the hourly compensation effects on the unemployment rate. Additionally, this paper offers relevant and useful informational to help the government and academic community use an econometrics and social approach to lessen on the effect of the hourly compensation on Unemployment rate to eliminate the problem.

Keywords: hourly compensation, Unemployment rate, panel data regression models, dummy variables, random effects model, fixed effects model, the linear regression model

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Authors: Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu

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Developing complete mechanistic models for polymerization reactors is not easy, because complex reactions occur simultaneously; there is a large number of kinetic parameters involved and sometimes the chemical and physical phenomena for mixtures involving polymers are poorly understood. To overcome these difficulties, empirical models based on sampled data can be used instead, namely regression methods typical of machine learning field. They have the ability to learn the trends of a process without any knowledge about its particular physical and chemical laws. Therefore, they are useful for modeling complex processes, such as the free radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate achieved in a batch bulk process. The goal is to generate accurate predictions of monomer conversion, numerical average molecular weight and gravimetrical average molecular weight. This process is associated with non-linear gel and glass effects. For this purpose, an adaptive sampling technique is presented, which can select more samples around the regions where the values have a higher variation. Several machine learning methods are used for the modeling and their performance is compared: support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, k-nearest neighbor and random forest, as well as an original algorithm, large margin nearest neighbor regression. The suggested method provides very good results compared to the other well-known regression algorithms.

Keywords: batch bulk methyl methacrylate polymerization, adaptive sampling, machine learning, large margin nearest neighbor regression

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Authors: Terada Pinyo

Abstract:

This study is a survey research designed to evaluate the quality of graduate students and factors influencing their quality. The sample group consists of 240 students. The data are collected from stratified sampling and are analyzed and calculated by instant computer program. Statistics used are percentage, mean, standard deviation, Pearson correlation coefficient, Cramer’s V and logistic regression analysis. It is found that the graduate students’ opinions regarding their characteristics according to the Thai Qualifications Framework for Higher Education (TQF) are at high score range both overall and specific category. The top categories that received the top score are interpersonal skills and responsibility, ethics and morals, knowledge, cognitive skills, numerical analysis with communication and information technology skills, respectively. On the other hand, factors affecting the quality of graduate students are cognitive skills, numerical analysis with communication and information technology, knowledge, interpersonal skills and responsibility, ethics and morals, and career regarding sales/business, respectively.

Keywords: student quality evaluation, Thai qualifications framework for higher education, graduate school, cognitive skills

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Authors: N. Haj Salem, M. Belhadj, S. Ben Jomâa, R. Dhouieb, S. Saadi, M. A. Mesrati, A. Chadly

Abstract:

Introduction: The hyoid bone is considered as one of many bones used to identify a missed person. There is a specificity of each population group in human identifications. Objective: To analyze the relationship between age, sex and metric parameters of hyoid bone in Tunisian population sample, using CT-scan. Materials and Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the Department of Forensic Medicine of FattoumaBourguiba Hospital of Monastir-Tunisia during 4 years. A total of 240 samples of hyoid bone were studied. The age of cases ranged from 18 days to 81 years. The specimens were collected only from the deceased of known age. Once dried, each hyoid bone was scanned using CT scan. For each specimen, 10 measurements were taken using a computer program. The measurements consisted of 6 lengths and 4 widths. A regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between age, sex, and different measurements. For age estimation, a multiple logistic regression was carried out for samples ≤ 35 years. For sex determination, ROC curve was performed. Discriminant value finally retained was based on the best specificity with the best sensitivity. Results: The correlation between real age and estimated age was good (r²=0.72) for samples aged 35 years or less. The unstandardised canonical function equation was estimated using three variables: maximum length of the right greater cornua, length from the middle of the left joint space to the middle of the right joint space and perpendicular length from the centre point of a line between the distal ends of the right and left greater cornua to the centre point of the anterior view of the body of the hyoid bone. For sex determination, the ROC curve analysis reveals that the area under curve was at 81.8%. Discriminant value was 0.451 with a specificity of 73% and sensibility of 79%. The equation function was estimated based on two variables: maximum length of the greater cornua and maximum length of the hyoid bone. Conclusion: The findings of the current study suggest that metric analysis of the hyoid bone may predict the age ≤ 35 years. Sex estimation seems to be more reliable. Further studies dealing with the fusion of the hyoid bone and the current study could help to achieve more accurate age estimation rates.

Keywords: anthropology, age estimation, CT scan, sex determination, Tunisia

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Authors: Danika Tynes

Abstract:

Innovations in technology have implications for sustainable development in health and wellness. Remote monitoring is one innovation for which the evidence-base has grown to support its viability as a quality healthcare delivery adjunct. This research reviews global data on telehealth adoption, in particular, remote monitoring, and the conditions under which its success becomes more likely. System-level indicators were selected to represent four constructs of DoI theory (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, and observability) and assessed against 5 types of Telehealth (Teleradiology, Teledermatology, Telepathology, Telepsychology, and Remote Monitoring) using ordinal logistic regression. Analyses include data from 84 countries, as extracted from the World Health Organization, World Bank, ICT (Information Communications Technology) Index, and HDI (Human Development Index) datasets. Analyses supported relative advantage and compatibility as the strongest influencers of remote monitoring adoption. Findings from this research may help focus on the allocation of resources, as a sustainability concern, through consideration of systems-level factors that may influence the success of remote monitoring adoption.

Keywords: remote monitoring, diffusion of innovation, telehealth, digital health

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Authors: Roberta S. Ilinsky, Livia Eisler, Gustavo Mota, Kurt Faltin Jr., Cristina Lucia Feijó Ortolani

Abstract:

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the presence of occlusal disorders associated with bottle feeding habits in children aged 4-6 years old. A cross-sectional study was performed in a sample of 466 preschool children aged 4-6 years, attending state preschools in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Parents and caregivers answered a questionnaire about children’s oral habits, including bottle-feeding habit, and signed the Informed Consent form. The students underwent an oral examination to evaluate occlusal disorders. Data were analyzed by the SPSS 2.2 program (IBM, USA) and treated with non-parametric chi-square tests and multiple logistic regression with a significance level of p < 0.05. There was association between bottle-feeding and occlusal disorders (OR = 3.058, 95% CI = 1.561-5.991, PI < 0.001), with a higher significance for anterior open bite (OR = 2.855, 95% CI = 1.769-4.606, PI < 0.001) and canine class II (OR = 0.667, 95% CI = 0.449-0.990, PI < 0.045). There was no relationship between bottle-feeding habit and other occlusal disorders examined. It was possible to conclude that children who were bottle fed during childhood are more likely to develop occlusal disorders, especially anterior open bite and canine class II.

Keywords: anterior open-bite, bottle-feeding, habits, malocclusion

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