Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3419

Search results for: dummy variables

3419 Generalized Approach to Linear Data Transformation

Authors: Abhijith Asok

Abstract:

This paper presents a generalized approach for the simple linear data transformation, Y=bX, through an integration of multidimensional coordinate geometry, vector space theory and polygonal geometry. The scaling is performed by adding an additional ’Dummy Dimension’ to the n-dimensional data, which helps plot two dimensional component-wise straight lines on pairs of dimensions. The end result is a set of scaled extensions of observations in any of the 2n spatial divisions, where n is the total number of applicable dimensions/dataset variables, created by shifting the n-dimensional plane along the ’Dummy Axis’. The derived scaling factor was found to be dependent on the coordinates of the common point of origin for diverging straight lines and the plane of extension, chosen on and perpendicular to the ’Dummy Axis’, respectively. This result indicates the geometrical interpretation of a linear data transformation and hence, opportunities for a more informed choice of the factor ’b’, based on a better choice of these coordinate values. The paper follows on to identify the effect of this transformation on certain popular distance metrics, wherein for many, the distance metric retained the same scaling factor as that of the features.

Keywords: data transformation, dummy dimension, linear transformation, scaling

Procedia PDF Downloads 234
3418 Preliminary Study on Analysis of Pinching Motion Actuated by Electro-Active Polymers

Authors: Doo W. Lee, Soo J. Lee, Bye R. Yoon, Jae Y. Jho, Kyehan Rhee

Abstract:

Hand exoskeletons have been developed in order to assist daily activities for disabled and elder people. A figure exoskeleton was developed using ionic polymer metal composite (IPMC) actuators, and the performance of it was evaluated in this study. In order to study dynamic performance of a finger dummy performing pinching motion, force generating characteristics of an IPMC actuator and pinching motion of a thumb and index finger dummy actuated by IMPC actuators were analyzed. The blocking force of 1.54 N was achieved under 4 V of DC. A thumb and index finger dummy, which has one degree of freedom at the proximal joint of each figure, was manufactured by a three dimensional rapid prototyping. Each figure was actuated by an IPMC actuator, and the maximum fingertip force was 1.18 N. Pinching motion of a dummy was analyzed by two video cameras in vertical top and horizontal left end view planes. A figure dummy powered by IPMC actuators could perform flexion and extension motion of an index figure and a thumb.

Keywords: finger exoskeleton, ionic polymer metal composite, flexion and extension, motion analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
3417 Impact of Infrastructural Development on Socio-Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation in India

Authors: Jonardan Koner

Abstract:

The study attempts to find out the impact of infrastructural investment on state economic growth in India. It further tries to determine the magnitude of the impact of infrastructural investment on economic indicator, i.e., per-capita income (PCI) in Indian States. The study uses panel regression technique to measure the impact of infrastructural investment on per-capita income (PCI) in Indian States. Panel regression technique helps incorporate both the cross-section and time-series aspects of the dataset. In order to analyze the difference in impact of the explanatory variables on the explained variables across states, the study uses Fixed Effect Panel Regression Model. The conclusions of the study are that infrastructural investment has a desirable impact on economic development and that the impact is different for different states in India. We analyze time series data (annual frequency) ranging from 1991 to 2010. The study reveals that the infrastructural investment significantly explains the variation of economic indicators.

Keywords: infrastructural investment, multiple regression, panel regression techniques, economic development, fixed effect dummy variable model

Procedia PDF Downloads 306
3416 A Passive Reaction Force Compensation for a Linear Motor Motion Stage Using Pre-Compressed Springs

Authors: Kim Duc Hoang, Hyeong Joon Ahn

Abstract:

Residual vibration of the system base due to a high-acceleration motion of a stage may reduce life and productivity of the manufacturing device. Although a passive RFC can reduce vibration of the system base, spring or dummy mass should be replaced to tune performance of the RFC. In this paper, we develop a novel concept of the passive RFC mechanism for a linear motor motion stage using pre-compressed springs. Dynamic characteristic of the passive RFC can be adjusted by pre-compression of the spring without exchanging the spring or dummy mass. First, we build a linear motor motion stage with pre-compressed springs. Then, the effect of the pre-compressed spring on the passive RFC is investigated by changing both pre-compressions and stiffness of springs. Finally, the effectiveness of the passive RFC using pre-compressed springs was verified with both simulations and experiments.

Keywords: linear motor motion stage, residual vibration, passive RFC, pre-compressed spring

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
3415 Count Regression Modelling on Number of Migrants in Households

Authors: Tsedeke Lambore Gemecho, Ayele Taye Goshu

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the number of international migrants in a household and to compare regression models for count response. This study is done by collecting data from total of 2288 household heads of 16 randomly sampled districts in Hadiya and Kembata-Tembaro zones of Southern Ethiopia. The Poisson mixed models, as special cases of the generalized linear mixed model, is explored to determine effects of the predictors: age of household head, farm land size, and household size. Two ethnicities Hadiya and Kembata are included in the final model as dummy variables. Stepwise variable selection has indentified four predictors: age of head, farm land size, family size and dummy variable ethnic2 (0=other, 1=Kembata). These predictors are significant at 5% significance level with count response number of migrant. The Poisson mixed model consisting of the four predictors with random effects districts. Area specific random effects are significant with the variance of about 0.5105 and standard deviation of 0.7145. The results show that the number of migrant increases with heads age, family size, and farm land size. In conclusion, there is a significantly high number of international migration per household in the area. Age of household head, family size, and farm land size are determinants that increase the number of international migrant in households. Community-based intervention is needed so as to monitor and regulate the international migration for the benefits of the society.

Keywords: Poisson regression, GLM, number of migrant, Hadiya and Kembata Tembaro zones

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3414 A Human Centered Design of an Exoskeleton Using Multibody Simulation

Authors: Sebastian Kölbl, Thomas Reitmaier, Mathias Hartmann

Abstract:

Trial and error approaches to adapt wearable support structures to human physiology are time consuming and elaborate. However, during preliminary design, the focus lies on understanding the interaction between exoskeleton and the human body in terms of forces and moments, namely body mechanics. For the study at hand, a multi-body simulation approach has been enhanced to evaluate actual forces and moments in a human dummy model with and without a digital mock-up of an active exoskeleton. Therefore, different motion data have been gathered and processed to perform a musculosceletal analysis. The motion data are ground reaction forces, electromyography data (EMG) and human motion data recorded with a marker-based motion capture system. Based on the experimental data, the response of the human dummy model has been calibrated. Subsequently, the scalable human dummy model, in conjunction with the motion data, is connected with the exoskeleton structure. The results of the human-machine interaction (HMI) simulation platform are in particular resulting contact forces and human joint forces to compare with admissible values with regard to the human physiology. Furthermore, it provides feedback for the sizing of the exoskeleton structure in terms of resulting interface forces (stress justification) and the effect of its compliance. A stepwise approach for the setup and validation of the modeling strategy is presented and the potential for a more time and cost-effective development of wearable support structures is outlined.

Keywords: assistive devices, ergonomic design, inverse dynamics, inverse kinematics, multibody simulation

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3413 Childhood Obesity: Future Direction and Education Priorities

Authors: Zahra Ranjbar

Abstract:

Interpretive structural modeling (ISM) is a well-established methodology for identifying relationships among specific variables, which define a problem or an issue. In this study most important variables that have critical role in children obesity problem were introduce by ISM questionnaire technique and their relationships were determine. Our findings suggested that sedentary activities are top level variables and school teachers and administrators, public education and scientific collaborations are bottom level variables in children obesity problem. Control of dietary, Physical education program, parents, government and motivation strategies variables are depend to other variables. They are very sensitive to external variables. Also, physical education program, parents, government, motivation, school teachers and administrators, public education and collaboration variables have strong driving power. They are linkage factors; it means that they can be effective on children obesity problem directly.

Keywords: ISM, variable, obesity, physical education, children

Procedia PDF Downloads 383
3412 The Impact of Size of the Regional Economic Blocs to the Country’s Flows of Trade: Evidence from COMESA, EAC and Tanzania

Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke, Lorna M. Kamau

Abstract:

This paper attempted to assess whether the size of the regional economic bloc has an impact to the flow of trade to a particular country. Two different sized blocs (COMESA and EAC) and one country (Tanzania) have been used as the point of references. Using the results from of the analyses, the paper also was anticipated to establish whether it was rational for Tanzania to withdraw its membership from COMESA (the larger bloc) to join EAC (the small one). Gravity model has been used to estimate the relationship between the variables, from which the bilateral trade flows between Tanzania and the eighteen member countries of the two blocs (COMESA and EAC) was employed for the time between 2000 and 2013. In the model, the dummy variable for regional bloc (bloc) at which the Tanzania trade partner countries belong are also added to the model to understand which trade bloc exhibit higher trade flow with Tanzania. From the findings, it was noted that over the period of study (2000-2013) Tanzania acknowledged more than 257% of trade volume in EAC than in COMESA. Conclusive, it was noted that the flow of trade is explained by many other variables apart from the size of regional bloc; and that the size by itself offer insufficient evidence in causality relationship. The paper therefore remain neutral on such staggered switching decision since more analyses are required to establish the country’s trade flow, especially when if it had been in multiple membership of COMESA and EAC.

Keywords: economic bloc, flow of trade, size of bloc, switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 184
3411 Spectral Analysis Applied to Variables of Oil Wells Profiling

Authors: Suzana Leitão Russo, Mayara Laysa de Oliveira Silva, José Augusto Andrade Filho, Vitor Hugo Simon

Abstract:

Currently, seismic methods and prospecting methods are commonly applied in the oil industry and, according to the information reported every day; oil is a source of non-renewable energy. It is easier to understand why the ownership of areas of oil extraction is coveted by many nations. It is necessary to think about ways that will enable the maximization of oil production. The technique of spectral analysis can be used to analyze the behavior of the variables already defined in oil well the profile. The main objective is to verify the series dependence of variables, and to model the variables using the frequency domain to observe the model residuals.

Keywords: oil, well, spectral analysis, oil extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 434
3410 Analysis of Effect of Microfinance on the Profit Level of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises in Lagos State, Nigeria

Authors: Saheed Olakunle Sanusi, Israel Ajibade Adedeji

Abstract:

The study analysed the effect of microfinance on the profit level of small and medium scale enterprises in Lagos. The data for the study were obtained by simple random sampling, and total of one hundred and fifty (150) small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) were sampled for the study. Seventy-five (75) each are microfinance users and non-users. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, logit model, t-test and ordinary least square (OLS) regression. The mean profit of the enterprises using microfinance is ₦16.8m, while for the non-users of microfinance is ₦5.9m. The mean profit of microfinance users is statistically different from the non-users. The result of the logit model specified for the determinant of access to microfinance showed that three of specified variables- educational status of the enterprise head, credit utilisation and volume of business investment are significant at P < 0.01. Enterprises with many years of experience, highly educated enterprise heads and high volume of business investment have more potential access to microfinance. The OLS regression model indicated that three parameters namely number of school years, the volume of business investment and (dummy) participation in microfinance were found to be significant at P < 0.05. These variables are therefore significant determinants of impacts of microfinance on profit level in the study area. The study, therefore, concludes and recommends that to improve the status of small and medium scale enterprises for an increase in profit, the full benefit of access to microfinance can be enhanced through investment in social infrastructure and human capital development. Also, concerted efforts should be made to encouraged non-users of microfinance among SMEs to use it in order to boost their profit.

Keywords: credit utilisation, logit model, microfinance, small and medium enterprises

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
3409 International Trade, Manufacturing and Employment: The First Two Decades of South African Democracy

Authors: Phillip F. Blaauw, Anna M. Pretorius

Abstract:

South Africa re-entered the international economy in the early 1990s, after Apartheid, at a time when globalisation was gathering momentum. Globalisation led to a more open economy, increased export volumes and a changed export mix. Manufacturing goods gained ground relative to mining products. After 21 years of democracy, South African researchers and policymakers need to evaluate the impact of international trade on the level of employment and compensation of employees in the South African manufacturing industry. This is important given the consistent and high levels of unemployment in South Africa. This paper has this evaluation as its aim. Two complimenting approaches are utilised. The 27 sub divisions of the South African manufacturing industry are classified according to capital/labour ratios. Possible trends in employment levels and employee compensation for these categories are then identified when comparing levels in 1995 to those in 2014. The supplementing empirical approach is cross-sectional and panel data regressions for the same period. The aim of the regression analysis is to explain the observed changes in employment and employee compensation levels between 1995 and 2014. The first part of the empirical approach revealed that over the 20-year period the intermediate capital intensive, labour intensive an ultra-labour intensive manufacturing industries all showed massive declines in overall employment. Only three of the 19 industries for these classifications showed marginal overall employment gains. The only meaningful gains were recorded in three of the eight capital intensive manufacturing industries. The overall performance of the South African manufacturing industry is therefore dismal at best. This scenario plays itself out for the skilled section of the intermediate capital intensive, labour intensive an ultra-labour intensive manufacturing industries as well. 18 out of the 19 industries displayed declines even for the skilled section of the labour force. The formal regression analysis supplements the above results. Real production growth is a statistically significant (95 per cent confidence level) explanatory variable of the overall employment level for the period under consideration, albeit with a small positive coefficient. The variables with the most significant negative relationship with changes in overall employment were the dummy variables for intermediate capital intensive and labour intensive manufacturing goods. Disaggregating overall changes in employment further in terms of skill levels revealed that skilled employment in particular responded negatively to increases in the ratio between imported and local inputs for manufacturing. The dummy variable for the labour intensive sectors remained negative and statistically significant, indicating that the labour intensive sectors of South African manufacturing remain vulnerable to the loss of employment opportunities. Whereas the first period (1995 to 2001) after the opening of the South African economy brought positive changes for skilled employment, continued increases in imported inputs displaced some of the skilled labour as well, putting further pressure on the South African economy with already high and persistent unemployment levels. Given the negative for the world commodity cycle and a stagnant local manufacturing sector, the challenge for policymakers is getting even more pronounced after South Africa’s political coming of age.

Keywords: capital/labour ratios, employment, employee compensation, manufacturing

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3408 The Effect of User Comments on Traffic Application Usage

Authors: I. Gokasar, G. Bakioglu

Abstract:

With the unprecedented rates of technological improvements, people start to solve their problems with the help of technological tools. According to application stores and websites in which people evaluate and comment on the traffic apps, there are more than 100 traffic applications which have different features with respect to their purpose of usage ranging from the features of traffic apps for public transit modes to the features of traffic apps for private cars. This study focuses on the top 30 traffic applications which were chosen with respect to their download counts. All data about the traffic applications were obtained from related websites. The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic applications in terms of their categorical attributes with the help of developing a regression model. The analysis results suggest that negative interpretations (e.g., being deficient) does not lead to lower star ratings of the applications. However, those negative interpretations result in a smaller increase in star rate. In addition, women use higher star rates than men for the evaluation of traffic applications.

Keywords: traffic app, real–time information, traffic congestion, regression analysis, dummy variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 235
3407 Using “Eckel” Model to Measure Income Smoothing Practices: The Case of French Companies

Authors: Feddaoui Amina

Abstract:

Income smoothing represents an attempt on the part of the company's management to reduce variations in earnings through the manipulation of the accounting principles. In this study, we aimed to measure income smoothing practices in a sample of 30 French joint stock companies during the period (2007-2009), we used Dummy variables method and “ECKEL” model to measure income smoothing practices and Binomial test accourding to SPSS program, to confirm or refute our hypothesis. This study concluded that there are no significant statistical indicators of income smoothing practices in the sample studied of French companies during the period (2007-2009), so the income series in the same sample studied of is characterized by stability and non-volatility without any intervention of management through accounting manipulation. However, this type of accounting manipulation should be taken into account and efforts should be made by control bodies to apply Eckel model and generalize its use at the global level.

Keywords: income, smoothing, 'Eckel', French companies

Procedia PDF Downloads 76
3406 Automata-Based String Analysis for Detecting Malware in Android Programs

Authors: Assad Maalouf, Lunjin Lu, James Lynott

Abstract:

We design and implement a precise model of string operations using finite state machine transformers and state transformers to approximate the values string variables can take throughout the execution of the program.We use our model to analyze Android program string variables. Our experimental results show that our string analysis is very efficient at detecting the contextual effect of string operations on the string variables. Our model proved to be very useful when it came to verifying statements about the string variables of the program.

Keywords: abstract interpretation, android, static analysis, string analysis

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3405 A Study on Inference from Distance Variables in Hedonic Regression

Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

Abstract:

In urban area, several landmarks may affect housing price and rents, hedonic analysis should employ distance variables corresponding to each landmarks. Unfortunately, the effects of distances to landmarks on housing prices are generally not consistent with the true price. These distance variables may cause magnitude error in regression, pointing a problem of spatial multicollinearity. In this paper, we provided some approaches for getting the samples with less bias and method on locating the specific sampling area to avoid the multicollinerity problem in two specific landmarks case.

Keywords: landmarks, hedonic regression, distance variables, collinearity, multicollinerity

Procedia PDF Downloads 378
3404 A Research on Inference from Multiple Distance Variables in Hedonic Regression Focus on Three Variables

Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

Abstract:

In urban context, urban nodes such as amenity or hazard will certainly affect house price, while classic hedonic analysis will employ distance variables measured from each urban nodes. However, effects from distances to facilities on house prices generally do not represent the true price of the property. Distance variables measured on the same surface are suffering a problem called multicollinearity, which is usually presented as magnitude variance and mean value in regression, errors caused by instability. In this paper, we provided a theoretical framework to identify and gather the data with less bias, and also provided specific sampling method on locating the sample region to avoid the spatial multicollinerity problem in three distance variable’s case.

Keywords: hedonic regression, urban node, distance variables, multicollinerity, collinearity

Procedia PDF Downloads 401
3403 A Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Non-Binary Causal Variable: An Application

Authors: Mohamed Raouf Benmakrelouf, Joseph Rynkiewicz

Abstract:

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is well-established method for causal effect estimation with desirable statistical properties. TMLE is a doubly robust maximum likelihood based approach that includes a secondary targeting step that optimizes the target statistical parameter. A causal interpretation of the statistical parameter requires assumptions of the Rubin causal framework. The causal effect of binary variable, E, on outcomes, Y, is defined in terms of comparisons between two potential outcomes as E[YE=1 − YE=0]. Our aim in this paper is to present an adaptation of TMLE methodology to estimate the causal effect of a non-binary categorical variable, providing a large application. We propose coding on the initial data in order to operate a binarization of the interest variable. For each category, we get a transformation of the non-binary interest variable into a binary variable, taking value 1 to indicate the presence of category (or group of categories) for an individual, 0 otherwise. Such a dummy variable makes it possible to have a pair of potential outcomes and oppose a category (or a group of categories) to another category (or a group of categories). Let E be a non-binary interest variable. We propose a complete disjunctive coding of our variable E. We transform the initial variable to obtain a set of binary vectors (dummy variables), E = (Ee : e ∈ {1, ..., |E|}), where each vector (variable), Ee, takes the value of 0 when its category is not present, and the value of 1 when its category is present, which allows to compute a pairwise-TMLE comparing difference in the outcome between one category and all remaining categories. In order to illustrate the application of our strategy, first, we present the implementation of TMLE to estimate the causal effect of non-binary variable on outcome using simulated data. Secondly, we apply our TMLE adaptation to survey data from the French Political Barometer (CEVIPOF), to estimate the causal effect of education level (A five-level variable) on a potential vote in favor of the French extreme right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen. Counterfactual reasoning requires us to consider some causal questions (additional causal assumptions). Leading to different coding of E, as a set of binary vectors, E = (Ee : e ∈ {2, ..., |E|}), where each vector (variable), Ee, takes the value of 0 when the first category (reference category) is present, and the value of 1 when its category is present, which allows to apply a pairwise-TMLE comparing difference in the outcome between the first level (fixed) and each remaining level. We confirmed that the increase in the level of education decreases the voting rate for the extreme right party.

Keywords: statistical inference, causal inference, super learning, targeted maximum likelihood estimation

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3402 Optimization of Fermentation Conditions for Extracellular Production of the Oncolytic Enzyme, L-Asparaginase, by New Subsp. Streptomyces Rochei Subsp. Chromatogenes NEAE-K Using Response Surface Methodology under Solid State Fermentation

Authors: Noura El-Ahmady El-Naggar

Abstract:

L-asparaginase is an important enzyme as therapeutic agents used in combination therapy with other drugs in the treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children. L-asparaginase producing actinomycete strain, NEAE-K, was isolated from soil sample and identified on the basis of morphological, cultural, physiological and biochemical properties, together with 16S rDNA sequence as new subsp. Streptomyces rochei subsp. chromatogenes NEAE-K and sequencing product (1532 bp) was deposited in the GenBank database under accession number KJ200343. The study was conducted to screen parameters affecting the production of L-asparaginase by Streptomyces rochei subsp. chromatogenes NEAE-K on solid state fermentation using Plackett–Burman experimental design. Sixteen different independent variables including incubation time, moisture content, inoculum size, temperature, pH, soybean meal+ wheat bran, dextrose, fructose, L-asparagine, yeast extract, KNO3, K2HPO4, MgSO4.7H2O, NaCl, FeSO4. 7H2O, CaCl2, and three dummy variables were screened in Plackett–Burman experimental design of 20 trials. The most significant independent variables affecting enzyme production (dextrose, L-asparagine and K2HPO4) were further optimized by the central composite design. As a result, a medium of the following formula is the optimum for producing an extracellular L-asparaginase by Streptomyces rochei subsp. chromatogenes NEAE-K from solid state fermentation: g/L (soybean meal+ wheat bran 15, dextrose 3, fructose 4, L-asparagine 8, yeast extract 2, KNO3 1, K2HPO4 2, MgSO4.7H2O 0.5, NaCl 0.1, FeSO4. 7H2O 0.02, CaCl2 0.01), incubation time 7 days, moisture content 50%, inoculum size 3 mL, temperature 30°C, pH 8.5.

Keywords: streptomyces rochei subsp. chromatogenes neae-k, 16s rrna, identification, solid state fermentation, l-asparaginase production, plackett-burman design, central composite design

Procedia PDF Downloads 341
3401 Externalizing Behavior Problems Influencing Social Behavior in Early Adolescence

Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

Abstract:

This study focuses on early adolescent externalizing behavioral problems which specifically concentrate on rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior using the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose was to analyze the relationships between the externalizing behavioral problems and relevant background variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior. Further, a hierarchical modeling method was used to explore the causal relations among background variables, breaking behavior variables and aggressive behavior variables.

Keywords: aggressive behavior, breaking behavior, early adolescence, externalizing problem

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3400 A Study of Islamic Stock Indices and Macroeconomic Variables

Authors: Mohammad Irfan

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.

Keywords: Indian Shariah Indices, macroeconomic variables, co-integration, Granger causality, vector error correction model (VECM)

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3399 Production Factor Coefficients Transition through the Lens of State Space Model

Authors: Kanokwan Chancharoenchai

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Economic growth can be considered as an important element of countries’ development process. For developing countries, like Thailand, to ensure the continuous growth of the economy, the Thai government usually implements various policies to stimulate economic growth. They may take the form of fiscal, monetary, trade, and other policies. Because of these different aspects, understanding factors relating to economic growth could allow the government to introduce the proper plan for the future economic stimulating scheme. Consequently, this issue has caught interest of not only policymakers but also academics. This study, therefore, investigates explanatory variables for economic growth in Thailand from 2005 to 2017 with a total of 52 quarters. The findings would contribute to the field of economic growth and become helpful information to policymakers. The investigation is estimated throughout the production function with non-linear Cobb-Douglas equation. The rate of growth is indicated by the change of GDP in the natural logarithmic form. The relevant factors included in the estimation cover three traditional means of production and implicit effects, such as human capital, international activity and technological transfer from developed countries. Besides, this investigation takes the internal and external instabilities into account as proxied by the unobserved inflation estimation and the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Thai baht, respectively. The unobserved inflation series are obtained from the AR(1)-ARCH(1) model, while the unobserved REER of Thai baht is gathered from naive OLS-GARCH(1,1) model. According to empirical results, the AR(|2|) equation which includes seven significant variables, namely capital stock, labor, the imports of capital goods, trade openness, the REER of Thai baht uncertainty, one previous GDP, and the world financial crisis in 2009 dummy, presents the most suitable model. The autoregressive model is assumed constant estimator that would somehow cause the unbias. However, this is not the case of the recursive coefficient model from the state space model that allows the transition of coefficients. With the powerful state space model, it provides the productivity or effect of each significant factor more in detail. The state coefficients are estimated based on the AR(|2|) with the exception of the one previous GDP and the 2009 world financial crisis dummy. The findings shed the light that those factors seem to be stable through time since the occurrence of the world financial crisis together with the political situation in Thailand. These two events could lower the confidence in the Thai economy. Moreover, state coefficients highlight the sluggish rate of machinery replacement and quite low technology of capital goods imported from abroad. The Thai government should apply proactive policies via taxation and specific credit policy to improve technological advancement, for instance. Another interesting evidence is the issue of trade openness which shows the negative transition effect along the sample period. This could be explained by the loss of price competitiveness to imported goods, especially under the widespread implementation of free trade agreement. The Thai government should carefully handle with regulations and the investment incentive policy by focusing on strengthening small and medium enterprises.

Keywords: autoregressive model, economic growth, state space model, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 71
3398 Effect of Correlation of Random Variables on Structural Reliability Index

Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

Abstract:

The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
3397 Evaluating the Baseline Chatacteristics of Static Balance in Young Adults

Authors: K. Abuzayan, H. Alabed

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The objectives of this study (baseline study, n = 20) were to implement Matlab procedures for quantifying selected static balance variables, establish baseline data of selected variables which characterize static balance activities in a population of healthy young adult males, and to examine any trial effects on these variables. The results indicated that the implementation of Matlab procedures for quantifying selected static balance variables was practical and enabled baseline data to be established for selected variables. There was no significant trial effect. Recommendations were made for suitable tests to be used in later studies. Specifically it was found that one foot-tiptoes tests either in static balance is too challenging for most participants in normal circumstances. A one foot-flat eyes open test was considered to be representative and challenging for static balance.

Keywords: static balance, base of support, baseline data, young adults

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3396 Statistic Regression and Open Data Approach for Identifying Economic Indicators That Influence e-Commerce

Authors: Apollinaire Barme, Simon Tamayo, Arthur Gaudron

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This paper presents a statistical approach to identify explanatory variables linearly related to e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology allows specifying a regression model in order to quantify the relevance between openly available data (economic and demographic) and national e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology consists in collecting data, preselecting input variables, performing regressions for choosing variables and models, testing and validating. The usefulness of the proposed approach is twofold: on the one hand, it allows identifying the variables that influence e- commerce sales with an accessible approach. And on the other hand, it can be used to model future sales from the input variables. Results show that e-commerce is linearly dependent on 11 economic and demographic indicators.

Keywords: e-commerce, statistical modeling, regression, empirical research

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3395 Perception of TQM Implementation and Perceived Cost of Poor Quality: A Case Study of Local Automotive Company’s Supplier

Authors: Fakhruddin Esa, Yusri Yusof

Abstract:

The confirmatory of Total Quality Management (TQM) implementation is most vital in quality management. This paper focuses on employees' perceptions towards TQM implementation in a local automotive company supplier. The objectives of this study are first and foremost to determine the perception of TQM implementation among the staff, and secondly to ascertain the correlation between the variables, and lastly to identify the relative influence of the 10 TQM variables on the cost of poor quality (COPQ). The TQM implementation is perceived to be moderate. All correlation is found to be significant and five variables having positively moderate to high correlation. Out of 10 variables, quality system improvement, reward and recognition and customer focus influence the perceived COPQ. This study extended a discussion on these three variables contribution to TQM in general and the human resource development in the organization. A significant recommendation to lowering costs of internal error, such as trouble shooting and scraps are also discussed. Certain components of further research that would add value to this study have also been suggested and perhaps could be implemented at policy-level initiatives.

Keywords: cost of poor quality (COPQ), correlation, total quality management (TQM), variables

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3394 The Usage of Bridge Estimator for Hegy Seasonal Unit Root Tests

Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

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3393 The Implications of Some Social Variables in Increasing the Unemployed in Egypt

Authors: Mohamed Elkhouli

Abstract:

This research sets out to identify some social factors or variables that may need to be controlled in order to decrease the volume of unemployed in Egypt. As well as, it comes to investigate the relationship between a set of social variables and unemployment issue in Egypt in the sake of determining the most important social variables influencing the rise of unemployed during the time series targeted (2002-2012). Highlighting the unemployment issue is becoming an increasingly important topic in all countries throughout the world resulting from expand their globalization efforts. In general, the study tries to determine what the most social priorities are likely to adopt seriously by the Egypt's government in order to solve the unemployed problem. The results showed that the low value for both of small projects and the total value of disbursed social security respectively have significant impact on increasing the No. of unemployed in Egypt, according to the target period by the current study.

Keywords: Egypt, social status, unemployment, unemployed

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3392 Using Data Mining in Automotive Safety

Authors: Carine Cridelich, Pablo Juesas Cano, Emmanuel Ramasso, Noureddine Zerhouni, Bernd Weiler

Abstract:

Safety is one of the most important considerations when buying a new car. While active safety aims at avoiding accidents, passive safety systems such as airbags and seat belts protect the occupant in case of an accident. In addition to legal regulations, organizations like Euro NCAP provide consumers with an independent assessment of the safety performance of cars and drive the development of safety systems in automobile industry. Those ratings are mainly based on injury assessment reference values derived from physical parameters measured in dummies during a car crash test. The components and sub-systems of a safety system are designed to achieve the required restraint performance. Sled tests and other types of tests are then carried out by car makers and their suppliers to confirm the protection level of the safety system. A Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) process is proposed in order to minimize the number of tests. The KDD process is based on the data emerging from sled tests according to Euro NCAP specifications. About 30 parameters of the passive safety systems from different data sources (crash data, dummy protocol) are first analysed together with experts opinions. A procedure is proposed to manage missing data and validated on real data sets. Finally, a procedure is developed to estimate a set of rough initial parameters of the passive system before testing aiming at reducing the number of tests.

Keywords: KDD process, passive safety systems, sled test, dummy injury assessment reference values, frontal impact

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3391 Selection of Variogram Model for Environmental Variables

Authors: Sheikh Samsuzzhan Alam

Abstract:

The present study investigates the selection of variogram model in analyzing spatial variations of environmental variables with the trend. Sometimes, the autofitted theoretical variogram does not really capture the true nature of the empirical semivariogram. So proper exploration and analysis are needed to select the best variogram model. For this study, an open source data collected from California Soil Resource Lab1 is used to explain the problems when fitting a theoretical variogram. Five most commonly used variogram models: Linear, Gaussian, Exponential, Matern, and Spherical were fitted to the experimental semivariogram. Ordinary kriging methods were considered to evaluate the accuracy of the selected variograms through cross-validation. This study is beneficial for selecting an appropriate theoretical variogram model for environmental variables.

Keywords: anisotropy, cross-validation, environmental variables, kriging, variogram models

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3390 The Role of Business Survey Measures in Forecasting Croatian Industrial Production

Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

Abstract:

While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: balance, business survey, confidence indicators, industrial production, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 408