Search results for: indirect growth rates

Authors: K. Bokreta, D. Benanaya

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The objective of this study is to examine the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Algeria using the econometric modelling techniques of cointegration and vector error correction modelling to analyse and draw policy inferences. The chosen variables of fiscal policy are government expenditure and net taxes on products, while the effect of monetary policy is presented by the inflation rate and the official exchange rate. From the results, we find that in the long-run, the impact of government expenditures is positive, while the effect of taxes is negative on growth. Additionally, we find that the inflation rate is found to have little effect on GDP per capita but the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant. We conclude that fiscal policy is more powerful then monetary policy in promoting economic growth in Algeria.

Keywords: Economic growth, fiscal policy, monetary policy, VECM.

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Authors: R. AlGhamdi, S. Drew, S. Alkhalaf

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This paper explores the issues that influence online retailing in Saudi Arabia. Retailers in Saudi Arabia have been reserved in their adoption of electronically delivered aspects of their business. Despite the fact that Saudi Arabia has the largest and fastest growth of ICT marketplaces in the Arab region, e-commerce activities are not progressing at the same speed. Only very few Saudi companies, mostly medium and large companies from the manufacturing sector, are involved in e-commerce implementation. Based on qualitative data collected by conducting interviews with 16 retailers and 16 potential customers in Saudi Arabia, several factors influencing online retailing diffusion in Saudi Arabia are identified. However, government support comes the highest and most influencing factor for online retailing growth as identified by both parties; retailers and potential customers in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: government support, key factor, online retailing growth, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Keri Alhadi Ighwela, Aziz Bin Ahmad, A. B. Abol-Munafi

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Three purified diets were formulated using fish meal, soya bean, wheat flour, palm oil, minerals and maltose. The carbohydrate in the diets was increased from 5 to 15% by changing the cellulose content to study the effect of dietary carbohydrate level on the growth parameters of Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus. The protein and the lipid contents were kept constant in all the diets. The results showed that, weight gain, protein efficiency ratio, net protein utilisation and hepatosomatic index of fish fed the diet containing 15% cellulose were the lowest among all groups. Addition, the fish fed the diet containing 5% cellulose had the best specific growth rate, and food conversion ratio. While, there was no effect of the dietary cellulose levels on condition factor and survival rate. These results indicate that Nile tilapia fingerlings are able to utilize dietary cellulose does not exceed 10% in their feed for optimum growth.

Keywords: Dietary cellulose, growth parameters, Nile Tilapia Oreochromis niloticus, purified diets.

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Authors: Okafor C. Uche, Agbo P. Ejiofor, Okezie C. Eziuche

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This study provides a regeneration protocol for Treculia africana Decne (an endangered plant) through embryo culture. Mature zygotic embryos of T. africana were excised from the seeds aseptically and cultured on varied strengths (full, half and quarter) of Murashige and Skoog (MS) basal medium supplemented. All treatments experienced 100±0.00 percent sprouting except for half and quarter strengths. Plantlets in MS full strength had the highest fresh weight, leaf area, and longest shoot length when compared to other treatments. All explants in full, half, quarter strengths and control had the same number of leaves and sprout rate. Between the treatments, there was a significant difference (P>0.05) in their effect on the length of shoot and root, number of adventitious root, leaf area, and fresh weight. Full strength had the highest mean value in all the above-mentioned parameters and differed significantly (P>0.05) from others except in shoot length, number of adventitious roots, and root length where it did not differ (P<0.05) from half strength. The result of this study indicates that full strength MS basal medium offers a better option for the optimum growth for Treculia africana regeneration in vitro.

Keywords: Medium strengths, Murashige and Skoog, Treculia africana, zygotic embryos.

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Authors: Tatyana Boikova

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The strong international competition as the factor of rising economic development efficiency should not turn into destructive force for models of social orientation. What result Europe received from the accelerated integration without a long transition period of the accepted countries. Correlative relationship between the research and development expenditure and labor productivity, inflation and the rate economy's growth of the USA and the euro zone, employment and gross value added between Old and New Europe is analyzed in this article. The article estimates the differences in economic growth of Old and New Europe. Correlation rate between cycles of the euro area and the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe very much differs, though some of these countries have high correlation as members of the Economic and Monetary Union. Besides, the majority of the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe does not correspond to criteria of an optimum currency area.

Keywords: endogenous economic growth, sustainability, competitiveness, economic development

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Authors: Muhamad Nugraha

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Economic growth always correlate positively with the magnitude of the unemployment rate. This is caused by labor which one of important variable to keep growth in the real sector of the region. Meanwhile, the economic structure in districts of Jember showed an increase of economic activity began to shift towards the industrial sector and some other economic sectors, so they have an affects to considerations for policy makers to increase economic growth in Jember as an autonomous region in East Java Province. At the fact, SMEs is among the factors driving economic growth in the region. This is shown by the high amount of SMEs. However, employment in the sector grew slightly slowed. It is caused by a lack of productivity in SMEs. Through the analysis of the transformation of economic structure theory, and the theory of Triple Helix using descriptive analytical method Location Quotient and Shift - Share, found that the results of the economic structure in Jember slowly shifting from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector, because it is dominated by trade sector, hotel and restaurant sector. In addition, SMEs is the potential sector of economic growth in Jember. While to maximizing role and functions of the institution's Research and Development Center of SMEs, there are three points to be known, that are Business Landscape, Business Architecture and Value Added.

Keywords: Economic Growth, SMEs, Labor, Research and Development Center of SMEs.

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Authors: V. Vargas-Alejo, L. E. Montero-Moguel

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Understanding the concept of function has been important in mathematics education for many years. In this study, the models built by a group of five business administration and accounting undergraduate students when carrying out a population growth activity are analyzed. The theoretical framework is the Models and Modeling Perspective. The results show how the students included tables, graphics, and algebraic representations in their models. Using technology was useful to interpret, describe, and predict the situation. The first model, the students built to describe the situation, was linear. After that, they modified and refined their ways of thinking; finally, they created exponential growth. Modeling the activity was useful to deep on mathematical concepts such as covariation, rate of change, and exponential function also to differentiate between linear and exponential growth.

Keywords: Covariation reasoning, exponential function, modeling, representations.

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Authors: T. Hussain, A. Iqbal, M. W. Siddiqi

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The objective of this study is to examine the validity of Wagner-s law and relationship between economic growth, population and export for Pakistan. The ARDL Bounds cointegration and ECM are utilized for long and short run equilibrium for the period of 1972-2007. Population has considerable role in an economy and exports are the main source to raise the GDP. With the increase in GDP, the government expenditures may or may not increase. The empirical results indicate that the Wagner-s Law does hold, as economic growth is significantly and positively correlated with government expenditures. However, population and exports have also significant and positive impact on government expenditures both in short and long run. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 70.82 percent within a year.

Keywords: ARDL Cointegration, Growth, Pakistan, Wagner's law.

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Authors: Ali. Marjani, M. Farsi, M. Rahimizadeh

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Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) is one of the important grain legume crops in the world. However, drought stress is a serious threat to chickpea production, and development of drought-resistant varieties is a necessity. Field experiments were conducted to evaluate the response of 8 chickpea genotypes (MCC* 696, 537, 80, 283, 392, 361, 252, 397) and drought stress (S1: non-stress, S2: stress at vegetative growth stage, S3: stress at early bloom, S4: stress at early pod visible) at different growth stages. Experiment was arranged in split plot design with four replications. Difference among the drought stress time was found to be significant for investigated traits except biological yield. Differences were observed for genotypes in flowering time, pod information time, physiological maturation time and yield. Plant height reduced due to drought stress in vegetative growth stage. Stem dry weight reduced due to drought stress in pod visibly. Flowering time, maturation time, pod number, number of seed per plant and yield cause of drought stress in flowering was also reduced. The correlation between yield and number of seed per plant and biological yield was positive. The MCC283 and MCC696 were the high-tolerance genotypes. These results demonstrated that drought stress delayed phonological growth in chickpea and that flowering stage is sensitive.

Keywords: Chickpea, drought stress, growth stage, tolerance.

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Authors: Sérgio Afonso Mulema, Andrés Carrión García, Vicente Ernesto

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This paper analyses the effect of fertilizer (organic and inorganic) in the growth of tilapia. An experiment was implemented in the Aquapesca Company of Mozambique; there were considered four different treatments. Each type of fertilizer was applied in two of these treatments; a feed was supplied to the third treatment, and the fourth was taken as control. The weight and length of the tilapia were used as the growth parameters, and to measure the water quality, the physical-chemical parameters were registered. The results show that the weight and length were different for tilapias cultivated in different treatments. These differences were evidenced mainly by organic and feed treatments, where there was the largest and smallest value of these parameters, respectively. In order to prove that these differences were caused only by applied treatment without interference for the aquatic environment, a Fisher discriminant analysis was applied, which confirmed that the treatments were exposed to the same environment condition.

Keywords: Fertilizer, tilapia, growth, statistical methods.

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Authors: Hirich A., Rami A., Laajaj K., Choukr-Allah R., Jacobsen S-E., El youssfi L., El Omari H.

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Yield and Crop Water Productivity are crucial issues in sustainable agriculture, especially in high-demand resource crops such as sweet corn. This study was conducted to investigate agronomic responses such as plant growth, yield and soil parameters (EC and Nitrate accumulation) to several deficit irrigation treatments (100, 75, 50, 25 and 0% of ETm) applied during vegetative growth stage, rainfed treatment was also tested. The finding of this research indicates that under deficit irrigation during vegetative growth stage applying 75% of ETm lead to increasing of 19.4% in terms of fresh ear yield, 9.4% in terms of dry grain yield, 10.5% in terms of number of ears per plant, 11.5% for the 1000 grains weight and 19% in terms of crop water productivity compared with fully irrigated treatment. While those parameters in addition to root, shoot and plant height has been affected by deficit irrigation during vegetative growth stage when increasing water stress degree more than 50% of ETm.

Keywords: Leaf area, yield, crop water productivity, water saving

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Authors: Nguyen Minh Tuan, Yen Chung–Ruey

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This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of gibberellic acid and 2,4- dichlorophenoxyacetic acid on flower number, fruit growth and fruit quality of wax apple. GA3 and 2,4-D were applied at small bud and petal fall stage. Number of flower, fruit set, fruit drop, fruit crack, fruit growth and fruit quality were recorded. Results indicated that spraying with 10 ppm GA3 had the best results in number of flower. GA3 spray at 30 ppm gave the faster rate of fruit growth than the other treatments. Fruit set, fruit size as well as fruit weight markedly improved by spraying 30 ppm GA3, followed by 10 ppm GA3 compared to untreated control. Moreover, spray GA3 at 30 ppm was the most effective and increased total soluble solids, reduced titratable acidity and fruit drop. On the other hand, it was noticed that with 10 ppm 2,4-D application also enhanced the fruit growth rate, improved physiological and biochemical characters of fruit compared to untreated control. It was concluded that both GA3 and 2,4-D spray have positive effects on fruit development, reduced fruit drop, fruit crack and improved fruit quality of wax apple under field conditions.

Keywords: Wax apple, GA3, 2, 4-D, fruit growth, fruit quality.

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Authors: Ali Akbar Sadat Asl

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Diagnosis and deciding about diseases in medical fields is facing innate uncertainty which can affect the whole process of treatment. This decision is made based on expert knowledge and the way in which an expert interprets the patient's condition, and the interpretation of the various experts from the patient's condition may be different. Fuzzy logic can provide mathematical modeling for many concepts, variables, and systems that are unclear and ambiguous and also it can provide a framework for reasoning, inference, control, and decision making in conditions of uncertainty. In systems with high uncertainty and high complexity, fuzzy logic is a suitable method for modeling. In this paper, we use type-2 fuzzy logic for uncertainty modeling that is in diagnosis of leukemia. The proposed system uses an indirect-direct approach and consists of two stages: In the first stage, the inference of blood test state is determined. In this step, we use an indirect approach where the rules are extracted automatically by implementing a clustering approach. In the second stage, signs of leukemia, duration of disease until its progress and the output of the first stage are combined and the final diagnosis of the system is obtained. In this stage, the system uses a direct approach and final diagnosis is determined by the expert. The obtained results show that the type-2 fuzzy expert system can diagnose leukemia with the average accuracy about 97%.

Keywords: Expert system, leukemia, medical diagnosis, type-2 fuzzy logic.

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Authors: K. P. K. S. Lahirushan, W. G. V. Gunasekara

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Main purpose of this study is to identify the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Asian Countries. Consequently, main objective is to analyze whether government expenditure causes economic growth in Asian countries vice versa and then scrutinizing long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. The study completely based on secondary data. The methodology being quantitative that includes econometrical techniques of cointegration, panel fixed effects model and granger causality in the context of panel data of Asian countries; Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Japan, China, Sri Lanka, India and Bhutan with 44 observations in each country, totaling to 396 observations from 1970 to 2013. The model used is the random effects panel OLS model. As with the above methodology, the study found the fascinating outcome. At first, empirical findings exhibit a momentous positive impact of government expenditure on Gross Domestic Production in Asian region. Secondly, government expenditure and economic growth indicate a long-run relationship in Asian countries. In conclusion, there is a unidirectional causality from economic growth to government expenditure and government expenditure to economic growth in Asian countries. Hence the study is validated that it is in line with the Keynesian theory and Wagner’s law as well. Consequently, it can be concluded that role of government would play a vital role in economic growth of Asian Countries. However; if government expenditure did not figure out with the economy’s needs it might be considerably inspiration the economy in a negative way so that society bears the costs.

Keywords: Asian Countries, Government Expenditure, Keynesian theory, Wagner’s theory, Random effects panel OLS model.

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Authors: Boualem El Kechebour, Djilali Benouar

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The objective of this work is to present a expertise on flooding hazard analysis and how to reduce the risk. The analysis concerns the disaster induced by the flood on November 10/11, 2001 in the Bab El Oued district of the city of Algiers.The study begins by an expertise of damages in related with the urban environment and the history of the urban growth of the site. After this phase, the work is focalized on the identification of the existing correlations between the development of the town and its vulnerability. The final step consists to elaborate the interpretations on the interactions between the urban growth, the sewerage network and the vulnerability of the urban system.In conclusion, several recommendations are formulated permitting the mitigation of the risk in the future. The principal recommendations concern the new urban operations and the existing urbanized sites.

Keywords: urban growth, sewerage network, vulnerability of town, flooding risk, mitigation

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Authors: Chockpisit Thepsithar, Aree Thongpukdee

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For sterilization of Phalaenopsis culture medium without autoclaving, selected single sterilizing agents and in combinations were added to a 25ml Hyponex medium in a 120ml glass container. Treated liquid and solid media, supplemented with sterilizing agents, were compared to a control medium, autoclaved at 121°C for 15min. It was found that 90(L of 10% povidone-iodine, 150(L of 5.25% sodium hypochlorite, 150(L of 2% mercurochrome, 90(L of 2.5% iodine + 2.5% potassium iodine in combination with 10% providone-iodine (1:3) and 30(L of 2.5% iodine + 2.5% potassium iodide in combination with 2% mercurochrome showed 100% sterile conditions in liquid medium but provided 75, 100, 50, 75 and 80% sterile conditions, respectively, in solid medium. For growth of Phalaenopsis protocorms, 90(L of 10% povidone-iodine in liquid Hyponex medium gave the comparable growth of protocorms to control medium while 150(L of 5.25% sodium hypochlorite in solid medium provided the promising growth of protocorms. Growth of protocorms, whole fresh weight, numbers of leaf and root, root length and number of protocorm-like bodies, was discussed.

Keywords: Phalaenopsis, sterilizing agents, Hyponex medium, sterile medium without autoclaving.

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Authors: Ekrem Erdem, Can Tansel Tugcu

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Improved resource efficiency of production is a key requirement for sustainable growth, worldwide. In this regards, by considering the energy and tourism as the extra inputs to the classical Coub-Douglas production function, this study aims at investigating the efficiency changes in the North African countries. To this end, the study uses panel data for the period 1995-2010 and adopts the Malmquist index based on the data envelopment analysis. Results show that tourism increases technical and scale efficiencies, while it decreases technological and total factor productivity changes. On the other hand, when the production function is augmented by the energy input; technical efficiency change decreases, while the technological change, scale efficiency change and total factor productivity change increase. Thus, in order to satisfy the needs for sustainable growth, North African governments should take some measures for increasing the contribution that the tourism makes to economic growth and some others for efficient use of resources in the energy sector.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Economic efficiency, North African countries, Sustainable growth.

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Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić

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The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.

Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.

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Authors: Isabela Romanha de Alcantara, José Eustáquio Ribeiro Vieira Filho, José Garcia Gasques

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Innovation and technology can be determinant factors to ensure agricultural and sustainable growth, as well as productivity gains. Technical change has contributed considerably to supply agricultural expansion in Brazil. This agricultural growth could be achieved by incorporating more land or capital. If capital is the main source of agricultural growth, it is possible to increase production per unit of land. The objective of this paper is to estimate: 1) total factor productivity (TFP), which is measured in terms of the rate of output per unit of input; and 2) the land-saving effect (LSE) that is the amount of land required in the case that yield rate is constant over time. According to this study, from 1990 to 2019, it appears that 87% of Brazilian agriculture product growth comes from the gains of productivity; the remaining 13% comes from input growth. In the same period, the total LSE was roughly 400 Mha, which corresponds to 47% of the national territory. These effects reflect the greater efficiency of using productive factors, whose technical change has allowed an increase in the agricultural production based on productivity gains.

Keywords: agriculture, land-saving effect, livestock, productivity

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Authors: V. Benidze

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After the Rose Revolution of 2003, Georgia has achieved an unparalleled socioeconomic success. However, economic growth since 2012 has been sluggish and certainly not enough to rapidly improve the county’s standard of living that still remains substantially low compared to that in developed nations. Recent poor economic performance has shown that some key challenges need to be addressed if Georgia is to achieve high future economic growth that will decrease the poverty rate and create a middle class in the country. This paper offers in detail analysis of the economic performance of Georgia since 2012 and identifies key challenges facing the country’s economy. The main challenge going forward will be transforming Georgia from a consumption-driven to a production-oriented economy. It is identified that mobilizing domestic investment through savings, attracting foreign investment in tradable sectors and expanding the country’s export base will be crucial in the facilitation of the above-mentioned structural transformation. As the outcome of the research, the paper suggests a strategy for accelerating Georgia’ future economic growth and offers recommendations based on the relevant conclusions.

Keywords: Challenges, development, economic growth, economic policy, Georgia.

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Authors: Chinnaiah Madduri, Raghu V. Prakash

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This paper presents the results of corrosion fatigue crack growth behaviour of a Ni-Cr-Mn steel commonly used in marine applications. The effect of mechanical variables such as frequency and load ratio on fatigue crack growth rate at various stages has been studied using compact tension (C(T)) specimens along the rolling direction of steel plate under 3.5% saturated NaCl aqueous environment. The significance of crack closure on corrosion fatigue, and the validity of Elber-s empirical linear crack closure model with the ASTM compliance offset method have been examined. Fatigue crack growth rate is higher and threshold stress intensities are lower in aqueous environment compared to the lab air conditions. It is also observed that the crack growth rate increases at lower frequencies. The higher stress ratio promotes the crack growth. The effect of oxidization and corrosion pit formation is very less as the stress ratio is increased. It is observed that as stress ratios are increased, the Elber-s crack closure model agrees well with the crack closure estimated by the ASTM compliance offset method for tests conducted at 5Hz frequency compared to tests conducted at 1Hz in corrosive environment.

Keywords: Corrosion fatigue, oxide induced crack closure, Elber's crack closure, ASTM compliance offset method.

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Authors: M. A. Askari, M. A. Nazari, P. Perrier, Y. Payan

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Growth and remodeling of biological structures have gained lots of attention over the past decades. Determining the response of living tissues to mechanical loads is necessary for a wide range of developing fields such as prosthetics design or computerassisted surgical interventions. It is a well-known fact that biological structures are never stress-free, even when externally unloaded. The exact origin of these residual stresses is not clear, but theoretically, growth is one of the main sources. Extracting body organ’s shapes from medical imaging does not produce any information regarding the existing residual stresses in that organ. The simplest cause of such stresses is gravity since an organ grows under its influence from birth. Ignoring such residual stresses might cause erroneous results in numerical simulations. Accounting for residual stresses due to tissue growth can improve the accuracy of mechanical analysis results. This paper presents an original computational framework based on gradual growth to determine the residual stresses due to growth. To illustrate the method, we apply it to a finite element model of a healthy human face reconstructed from medical images. The distribution of residual stress in facial tissues is computed, which can overcome the effect of gravity and maintain tissues firmness. Our assumption is that tissue wrinkles caused by aging could be a consequence of decreasing residual stress and thus not counteracting gravity. Taking into account these stresses seems therefore extremely important in maxillofacial surgery. It would indeed help surgeons to estimate tissues changes after surgery.

Keywords: Finite element method, growth, residual stress, soft tissue.

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Authors: D. Triantakonstantis, D. Stathakis

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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modelling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modelling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, CORINE, Urban Atlas, Urban Growth Prediction.

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Authors: Avdhesh K. Sharma

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Formulation for drying and pyrolysis process in packed beds at slow heating rates is presented. Drying of biomass particles bed is described by mass diffusion equation and local moisture-vapour-equilibrium relations. In gasifiers, volatilization rate during pyrolysis of biomass is modeled by using apparent kinetic rate expression, while product compositions at slow heating rates is modeled using empirical fitted mass ratios (i.e., CO/CO₂, ME/CO₂, H₂O/CO₂) in terms of pyrolysis temperature. The drying module is validated fairly with available chemical kinetics scheme and found that the testing zone in gasifier bed constituted of relatively smaller particles having high airflow with high isothermal temperature expedite the drying process. Further, volatile releases more quickly within the shorter zone height at high temperatures (isothermal). Both, moisture loss and volatile release profiles are found to be sensitive to temperature, although the influence of initial moisture content on volatile release profile is not so sensitive.

Keywords: Modeling downdraft gasifier, drying, pyrolysis, moist woody biomass.

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Authors: Vijay Sodhi, Ajay Bansal

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The effects of different parameters on the hydrodynamics of trickle bed reactors were discussed for Newtonian and non-Newtonian foaming systems. The varying parameters are varying liquid velocities, gas flow velocities and surface tension. The range for gas velocity is particularly large, thanks to the use of dense gas to simulate very high pressure conditions. This data bank has been used to compare the prediction accuracy of the different trendlines and transition points from the literature. More than 240 experimental points for the trickle flow (GCF) and foaming pulsing flow (PF/FPF) regime were obtained for present study. Hydrodynamic characteristics involving dynamic liquid saturation significantly influenced by gas and liquid flow rates. For 15 and 30 ppm air-aqueous surfactant solutions, dynamic liquid saturation decreases with higher liquid and gas flow rates considerably in high interaction regime. With decrease in surface tension i.e. for 45 and 60 ppm air-aqueous surfactant systems, effect was more pronounced with decreases dynamic liquid saturation very sharply during regime transition significantly at both low liquid and gas flow rates.

Keywords: Trickle Bed Reactor, Dynamic Liquid Saturation, Foaming, Flow Regime Transition

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Authors: Wentao He, Jingxi Liu, De Xie

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It is necessary to manage the fatigue crack growth (FCG) once those cracks are detected during in-service inspections. In this paper, a simulation program (FCG-System) is developed utilizing the commercial software ABAQUS with its object-oriented programming interface to simulate the fatigue crack path and to compute the corresponding fatigue life. In order to apply FCG-System in large-scale marine structures, the substructure modeling technique is integrated in the system under the consideration of structural details and load shedding during crack growth. Based on the nodal forces and nodal displacements obtained from finite element analysis, a formula for shell elements to compute stress intensity factors is proposed in the view of virtual crack closure technique. The cracks initiating from the intersection of flange and the end of the web-stiffener are investigated for fatigue crack paths and growth lives under water pressure loading and axial force loading, separately. It is found that the FCG-System developed by authors could be an efficient tool to perform fatigue crack growth analysis on marine structures.

Keywords: Crack path, Fatigue crack, Fatigue live, FCG-System, Virtual crack closure technique.

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Authors: Sin Yin Teh, Abdul Rahman Othman, Michael Boon Chong Khoo

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In this paper, the concepts of dichotomous logistic regression (DLR) with leave-one-out (L-O-O) were discussed. To illustrate this, the L-O-O was run to determine the importance of the simulation conditions for robust test of spread procedures with good Type I error rates. The resultant model was then evaluated. The discussions included 1) assessment of the accuracy of the model, and 2) parameter estimates. These were presented and illustrated by modeling the relationship between the dichotomous dependent variable (Type I error rates) with a set of independent variables (the simulation conditions). The base SAS software containing PROC LOGISTIC and DATA step functions can be making used to do the DLR analysis.

Keywords: Dichotomous logistic regression, leave-one-out, testof spread.

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Authors: Achela K. Fernando, Xiujuan Zhang, Peter F. Kinley

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A feed-forward, back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model has been used to forecast the occurrences of wastewater overflows in a combined sewerage reticulation system. This approach was tested to evaluate its applicability as a method alternative to the common practice of developing a complete conceptual, mathematical hydrological-hydraulic model for the sewerage system to enable such forecasts. The ANN approach obviates the need for a-priori understanding and representation of the underlying hydrological hydraulic phenomena in mathematical terms but enables learning the characteristics of a sewer overflow from the historical data. The performance of the standard feed-forward, back-propagation of error algorithm was enhanced by a modified data normalizing technique that enabled the ANN model to extrapolate into the territory that was unseen by the training data. The algorithm and the data normalizing method are presented along with the ANN model output results that indicate a good accuracy in the forecasted sewer overflow rates. However, it was revealed that the accurate forecasting of the overflow rates are heavily dependent on the availability of a real-time flow monitoring at the overflow structure to provide antecedent flow rate data. The ability of the ANN to forecast the overflow rates without the antecedent flow rates (as is the case with traditional conceptual reticulation models) was found to be quite poor.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Back-propagationlearning, Combined sewer overflows, Forecasting.

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Authors: M. W. Siddiqi, M. Ilyas

Abstract:

Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main essential with which an economy is managed and run. While planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial estimates and targets set to be achieved. This revenue-gap distorts the whole system and the economy disturbing all the major macroeconomic indicators. This study is aimed to find out short and long term impact of revenue gap on budget deficit, debt burden and economic growth on the economy of Pakistan. For this purpose the study uses autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and error correction mechanism on three different models for the period 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that revenue gap has a short and long run relationship with economic growth and budget deficit. However, revenue gap has no impact on debt burden.

Keywords: Revenue Gap, Economic Growth, Budget Deficit, Debt Burden

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Authors: R. S. Hassani, S. Chikh, L. Tadrist, S. Radev

Abstract:

A bubbly flow in a vertical miniature tube is analyzed theoretically. The liquid and gas phase are co-current flowing upward. The gas phase is injected via a nozzle whose inner diameter is 0.11mm and it is placed on the axis of the tube. A force balance is applied on the bubble at its detachment. The set of governing equations are solved by use of Mathematica software. The bubble diameter and the bubble generation frequency are determined for various inlet phase velocities represented by the inlet mass quality. The results show different behavior of bubble growth and detachment depending on the tube size.

Keywords: Two phase flow, bubble growth, minichannel, generation frequency.

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