Search results for: Urban Growth Prediction.

Authors: D. Triantakonstantis, D. Stathakis

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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modelling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modelling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, CORINE, Urban Atlas, Urban Growth Prediction.

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Authors: Hansung Wan, Hyungkwan Cho, Kiho Sung, Hongkyu Kim

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The amount of urban artificial heat which affects the urban temperature rise in urban meteorology was investigated in order to clarify the relationships between urbanization and urban meteorology in this study. The results of calculation to identify how urban temperate was increased through the establishment of a model for measuring the amount of urban artificial heat and theoretical testing revealed that the amount of urban artificial heat increased urban temperature by plus or minus 0.23 ˚ C in 2007 compared with 1996, statistical methods (correlation and regression analysis) to clarify the relationships between urbanization and urban weather were as follows. New design techniques and urban growth management are necessary from urban growth management point of view suggested from this research at city design phase to decrease urban temperature rise and urban torrential rain which can produce urban disaster in terms of urban meteorology by urbanization.

Keywords: The amount of urban artificial heat, Urban growth management, Urbanization, Urban meteorology

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Authors: Boualem El Kechebour, Djilali Benouar

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The objective of this work is to present a expertise on flooding hazard analysis and how to reduce the risk. The analysis concerns the disaster induced by the flood on November 10/11, 2001 in the Bab El Oued district of the city of Algiers.The study begins by an expertise of damages in related with the urban environment and the history of the urban growth of the site. After this phase, the work is focalized on the identification of the existing correlations between the development of the town and its vulnerability. The final step consists to elaborate the interpretations on the interactions between the urban growth, the sewerage network and the vulnerability of the urban system.In conclusion, several recommendations are formulated permitting the mitigation of the risk in the future. The principal recommendations concern the new urban operations and the existing urbanized sites.

Keywords: urban growth, sewerage network, vulnerability of town, flooding risk, mitigation

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Authors: Sanja Pfeifer, Nataša Šarlija, Marina Jeger, Ana Bilandžić

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The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.

Keywords: Creative industries, growth prediction model, growth determinants, growth measures.

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Authors: Bashir Ahmad Amiri, Nsenda Lukumwena

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The global trend indicates that more and more people live and will continue to live in urban areas. Today cities are expanding both in physical size and number due to the rapid population growth along with sprawl development, which caused the cities to expand beyond the growth boundary and exerting intense pressure on environmental resources specially farmlands to accommodate new housing and urban facilities. Also noticeable is the increase in urban decay along with the increase of slum dwellers present another challenge that most cities in developed and developing countries have to deal with. Today urban practitioners, researchers, planners, and decision-makers are seeking for alternative development and growth management policies to house the rising urban population and also cure the urban decay and slum issues turn to Smart Growth to achieve their goals. Many cities across the globe have adopted smart growth as an alternative growth management tool to deal with patterns and forms of development and to cure the rising urban and environmental problems. The method used in this study is a literature analysis method through reviewing various resources to highlight the potential benefits of Smart Growth in both developed and developing countries and analyze, to what extent it can be a strategic alternative for Afghanistan’s cities, especially the capital city. Hence a comparative analysis is carried on three countries, namely the USA, China, and India to identify the potential benefits of smart growth likely to serve as an achievable broad base for recommendations in different urban contexts.

Keywords: Growth management, housing, Kabul city, smart growth, urban-expansion.

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Authors: C. Manjula, Lilly Florence

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Software technology is developing rapidly which leads to the growth of various industries. Now-a-days, software-based applications have been adopted widely for business purposes. For any software industry, development of reliable software is becoming a challenging task because a faulty software module may be harmful for the growth of industry and business. Hence there is a need to develop techniques which can be used for early prediction of software defects. Due to complexities in manual prediction, automated software defect prediction techniques have been introduced. These techniques are based on the pattern learning from the previous software versions and finding the defects in the current version. These techniques have attracted researchers due to their significant impact on industrial growth by identifying the bugs in software. Based on this, several researches have been carried out but achieving desirable defect prediction performance is still a challenging task. To address this issue, here we present a machine learning based hybrid technique for software defect prediction. First of all, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is presented where an improved fitness function is used for better optimization of features in data sets. Later, these features are processed through Decision Tree (DT) classification model. Finally, an experimental study is presented where results from the proposed GA-DT based hybrid approach is compared with those from the DT classification technique. The results show that the proposed hybrid approach achieves better classification accuracy.

Keywords: Decision tree, genetic algorithm, machine learning, software defect prediction.

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Authors: Nükhet Konuk, N. Gamze Turan, Yüksel Ardalı

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Cities play a vital role in the social fabric of countries and in national and regional economic growth worldwide; however, the environmental effects of such growth need to be assessed and managed better. The critical and most immediate problems faced by cities of developing countries are the health impacts of urban pollution that derive from inadequate water, sanitation, drainage and solid waste services, poor urban and industrial waste management, and air pollution. As globalization continues, earth's natural processes transform local problems into international issues. The aim of this study is to provide a broad overview of the pollution from urban wastes and emissions in Turkey which is a developing country. It is aimed to underline the significance of reorganizing the institutional tools in a worldwide perspective in order to generate coherent solutions to urban problems, and to enhance urban quality.

Keywords: Environmental pollution, developing countries, environmental degradation, urban environmental problems.

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Authors: Bakr Hashem Paumey Ahmed Alashwal

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The urban transformation processes in its framework and its general significance became a fundamental and vital subject of consideration for both the developed and the developing societies. It has become important to regulate the architectural systems adopted by the city, to sustain the present development on one hand, and on the other hand, to facilitate its future growth. Thus, the study dealt with the phenomenon of urban transformation of the Mediterranean cities, and the city of Alexandria in particular, because of its significant historical and cultural legacy, its historical architecture and its contemporary urbanization. This article investigates the entirety of cities in the Mediterranean region through the analysis of the relationship between inflation and growth of these cities and the extent of the complexity of the city barriers. We hope to analyze not only the internal transformations, but the external relationships (both imperial and post-colonial) that have shaped Alexandria city growth from the nineteenth century until today.

Keywords: Urban Transformations, Mediterranean cities, Modern Era, Alexandria.

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Authors: Mahdi Yaghobi, Mohammad Haeri

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The current methods of predictive controllers are utilized for those processes in which the rate of output variations is not high. For such processes, therefore, stability can be achieved by implementing the constrained predictive controller or applying infinite prediction horizon. When the rate of the output growth is high (e.g. for unstable nonminimum phase process) the stabilization seems to be problematic. In order to avoid this, it is suggested to change the method in the way that: first, the prediction error growth should be decreased at the early stage of the prediction horizon, and second, the rate of the error variation should be penalized. The growth of the error is decreased through adjusting its weighting coefficients in the cost function. Reduction in the error variation is possible by adding the first order derivate of the error into the cost function. By studying different examples it is shown that using these two remedies together, the closed-loop stability of unstable nonminimum phase process can be achieved.

Keywords: GPC, Stability, Varying Weighting Coefficients.

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Authors: Ahmad Sharif Ahmadi, Yoshitaka Kajita

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With massive population expansion and fast economic development in last decade, urban land has increasingly expanded and formed high informal development territory in Kabul city. This paper investigates integrated urbanization trends in Kabul city since the formation of the basic structure of the present city using GIS and remote sensing. This study explores the spatial and temporal difference of urban land expansion and land use categories among different time intervals, 1964-1978 and 1978-2008 from 1964 to 2008 in Kabul city. Furthermore, the goal of this paper is to understand the extent of urban land expansion and the factors driving urban land expansion in Kabul city. Many factors like population expansion, the return of refugees from neighboring countries and significant economic growth of the city affected urban land expansion. Across all the study area urban land expansion rate, population expansion rate and economic growth rate have been compared to analyze the relationship of driving forces with urban land expansion. Based on urban land change data detected by interpreting land use maps, it was found that in the entire study area the urban territory has been expanded by 14 times between 1964 and 2008.

Keywords: GIS, Kabul city, land use, urban land expansion, urbanization.

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Authors: L. Salvati, D. Smiraglia, S. Bajocco, M. Munafò

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This paper focuses on Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) occurred in the urban coastal regions of the Mediterranean basin in the last thirty years. LULCC were assessed diachronically (1975-2006) in two urban areas, Rome (Italy) and Athens (Greece), by using CORINE land cover maps. In strictly coastal territories a persistent growth of built-up areas at the expenses of both agricultural and forest land uses was found. On the contrary, a different pattern was observed in the surrounding inland areas, where a high conversion rate of the agricultural land uses to both urban and forest land uses was recorded. The impact of city growth on the complex pattern of coastal LULCC is finally discussed.

Keywords: Land use changes, coastal region, Rome, Attica, southern Europe.

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Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

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The Intelligent transportation system is essential to build smarter cities. Machine learning based transportation prediction could be highly promising approach by delivering invisible aspect visible. In this context, this research aims to make a prototype model that predicts transportation network by using big data and machine learning technology. In detail, among urban transportation systems this research chooses bus system.  The research problem that existing headway model cannot response dynamic transportation conditions. Thus, bus delay problem is often occurred. To overcome this problem, a prediction model is presented to fine patterns of bus delay by using a machine learning implementing the following data sets; traffics, weathers, and bus statues. This research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data are gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is designed by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted tests for bus delays prediction. This research presents experiments to increase prediction accuracy for bus headway by analyzing the urban big data. The big data analysis is important to predict the future and to find correlations by processing huge amount of data. Therefore, based on the analysis method, this research represents an effective use of the machine learning and urban big data to understand urban dynamics.

Keywords: Big data, bus headway prediction, machine learning, public transportation.

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Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: Big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction.

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Authors: M. F. V. Montezuma, E. P. Deus, M. C. Carvalho

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Steel bridges are normally subjected to random loads with different traffic frequencies. They are structures with dynamic behavior and are subject to fatigue failure process, where the nucleation of a crack, growth and failure can occur. After locating and determining the size of an existing fault, it is important to predict the crack propagation and the convenient time for repair. Therefore, fracture mechanics and fatigue concepts are essential to the right approach to the problem. To study the fatigue crack growth, a computational code was developed by using the root mean square (RMS) and the cycle-by-cycle models. One observes the variable amplitude loading influence on the life structural prediction. Different loads histories and initial crack length were considered as input variables. Thus, it was evaluated the dispersion of results of the expected structural life choosing different initial parameters.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation, life prediction, variable loadings, steel bridges.

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Authors: Ali Ben Abbes, ImedRiadh Farah, Vincent Barra

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Remotely sensed data are a significant source for monitoring and updating databases for land use/cover. Nowadays, changes detection of urban area has been a subject of intensive researches. Timely and accurate data on spatio-temporal changes of urban areas are therefore required. The data extracted from multi-temporal satellite images are usually non-stationary. In fact, the changes evolve in time and space. This paper is an attempt to propose a methodology for changes detection in urban area by combining a non-stationary decomposition method and stochastic modeling. We consider as input of our methodology a sequence of satellite images I₁, I₂, … I_n at different periods (t = 1, 2, ..., n). Firstly, a preprocessing of multi-temporal satellite images is applied. (e.g. radiometric, atmospheric and geometric). The systematic study of global urban expansion in our methodology can be approached in two ways: The first considers the urban area as one same object as opposed to non-urban areas (e.g. vegetation, bare soil and water). The objective is to extract the urban mask. The second one aims to obtain a more knowledge of urban area, distinguishing different types of tissue within the urban area. In order to validate our approach, we used a database of Tres Cantos-Madrid in Spain, which is derived from Landsat for a period (from January 2004 to July 2013) by collecting two frames per year at a spatial resolution of 25 meters. The obtained results show the effectiveness of our method.

Keywords: Multi-temporal satellite image, urban growth, Non-stationarity, stochastic modeling.

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.

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Authors: Rhoda M. Darkwah, Patrick B. Cobbinah

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Urban greenery remains the bastion of urban landscape and a key to sustainable development due to its integral connections to the general health and wellbeing of urban residents. However, in an era of rapid urbanisation, recent studies indicate that urban greenery, especially ecologically sensitive areas, in many African cities is becoming increasingly depleted. Given the scale and rate of natural and anthropogenic change, effective management of urban greenery as the ultimate goal of restoring depleting urban landscapes is urgent. This review advocates for an urban resilience model to managing urban greenery.

Keywords: Green spaces, resilience, urbanisation, urban greenery.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

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River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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Authors: Azadeh Rezafar, Sevkiye Sence Turk

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Rapid population growth in urban areas and extinction danger of natural resources in order to meet the food needs of these population, has revealed the need for sustainability. It did not last long that city planners realized the importance of an equal access to natural resources with protecting and managing them in cities, in accordance with the concept of sustainable development. Like in other countries The Turkish Government is aware of the importance of the sustainable development in their cities. The government issued new laws for protection of environmental assets and so that the preservation of natural ecology. The main objective of this article is to emphasis the importance of the sustainable development in the context of the developing world by giving special information about the method of the Turkish Government for protecting nature with approval of difference laws in this area.

Keywords: Population Growth, Sustainable Development, Turkey, Turkish Urban Environmental Laws.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

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River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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Authors: Beate Niemann, Fabian Pramel

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The formerly industrially or militarily used Urban Waterfront is a potential area for urban development. Extensive interventions in the urban space come along with the development of these previously inaccessible areas in the city. The development of the Urban Waterfront in the European City is not subject to any recognizable urban paradigm. In this study, the development of the Urban Waterfront as a new urban space typology is analyzed by case studies of Urban Waterfront developments in European Cities. For humans, perceptible spatial conditions are categorized and it is identified whether the themed Urban Waterfront Developments are congruent or incongruent urban design interventions and which deviations the Urban Waterfront itself induce. As congruent urban design, a design is understood, which fits in the urban fabric regarding its similar spatial conditions to the surrounding. Incongruent urban design, however, shows significantly different conditions in its shape. Finally, the spatial relationship of the themed Urban Waterfront developments and their associated environment are compared in order to identify contrasts between new and old urban space. In this way, conclusions about urban design paradigms of the new urban space typology are tried to be drawn.

Keywords: Composition, congruence, identity, paradigm, spatial condition, urban design, urban development, urban waterfront.

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Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

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Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: Growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises.

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Authors: A. Elyousfi, A. Tamtaoui, E. Bouyakhf

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The H.264/AVC standard uses an intra prediction, 9 directional modes for 4x4 luma blocks and 8x8 luma blocks, 4 directional modes for 16x16 macroblock and 8x8 chroma blocks, respectively. It means that, for a macroblock, it has to perform 736 different RDO calculation before a best RDO modes is determined. With this Multiple intra-mode prediction, intra coding of H.264/AVC offers a considerably higher improvement in coding efficiency compared to other compression standards, but computational complexity is increased significantly. This paper presents a fast intra prediction algorithm for H.264/AVC intra prediction based a characteristic of homogeneity information. In this study, the gradient prediction method used to predict the homogeneous area and the quadratic prediction function used to predict the nonhomogeneous area. Based on the correlation between the homogeneity and block size, the smaller block is predicted by gradient prediction and quadratic prediction, so the bigger block is predicted by gradient prediction. Experimental results are presented to show that the proposed method reduce the complexity by up to 76.07% maintaining the similar PSNR quality with about 1.94%bit rate increase in average.

Keywords: Intra prediction, H.264/AVC, video coding, encodercomplexity.

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Authors: Tingke Wu, Yaping Huang

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Many cities in China have been experiencing serious urban sprawl since the 1980s, which pose great challenges to a country with scare cultivated land and huge population. Because of different social and economic context and development stage, driving forces of urban sprawl in China are quite different from developed countries. Therefore, it is of great importance to probe into urban sprawl driving mechanism in Chinese context. By a comparison study of the background and features of urban sprawl between China and developed countries, this research establishes an analytical framework for sprawl dynamic mechanism in China. By literature review and analyzing data from national statistical yearbook, it then probes into the driving mechanism and the primary cause of urban sprawl. The results suggest that population increase, economic growth, traffic and information technology development lead to rapid expansion of urban space; defects of land institution and lack of effective guidance give rise to low efficiency of urban land use. Moreover, urban sprawl is ultimately attributed to imperfections of policy and institution. On this basis, this research puts forward several sprawl control strategies in Chinese context.

Keywords: China, driving forces, driving mechanism, land institution, urban expansion, urban sprawl.

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: Neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression.

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Authors: E. J. Cilliers

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It is the living conditions in the cities that determine the future of our livelihood. “To change life, we must first change space"- Henri Lefebvre. Sustainable development is a utopian aspiration for South African cities (especially the case study of the Gauteng City Region), which are currently characterized by unplanned growth and increasing urban sprawl. While the reasons for poor environmental quality and living conditions are undoubtedly diverse and complex, having political, economical and social dimensions, it is argued that the prevailing approach to layout planning in South Africa is part of the problem. This article seeks a solution to the problem of sustainability, from a spatial planning perspective. The spatial planning tool, the urban development boundary, is introduced as the concept that will ensure empty talk being translated into a sustainable vision. The urban development boundary is a spatial planning tool that can be used and implemented to direct urban growth towards a more sustainable form. The urban development boundary aims to ensure planned urban areas, in contrast to the current unplanned areas characterized by urban sprawl and insufficient infrastructure. However, the success of the urban development boundary concept is subject to effective implementation measures, as well as adequate and efficient management. The concept of sustainable development can function as a driving force underlying societal change and transformation, but the interface between spatial planning and environmental management needs to be established (as this is the core aspects underlying sustainable development), and authorities needs to understand and implement this interface consecutively. This interface can, however, realize in terms of the objectives of the planning tool – the urban development boundary. The case study, the Gauteng City Region, is depicted as a site of economic growth and innovation, but there is a lack of good urban and regional governance, impacting on the design (layout) and function of urban areas and land use, as current authorities make uninformed decisions in terms of development applications, leading to unsustainable urban forms and unsustainable nodes. Place and space concepts are thus critical matters applicable to planning of the Gauteng City Region. The urban development boundary are thus explored as a planning tool to guide decision-making, and create a sustainable urban form, leading to better environmental and living conditions, and continuous sustainability.

Keywords: Urban planning, sustainable urban form, urbandevelopment boundary, planning tool.

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Authors: Angela Unna Chukwu, Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin

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We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter (allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz growth models over its source model.

Keywords: Height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz.

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Authors: Fattaneh Daneshmand Malayeri

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In this paper, in addition to introducing good urban planning and its effects on globalization, some new methodologies in urban management and another urban aspects has been presented. Some new concerns in increasing of urban population , metropolitans and its relations on big problems has been focused in this paper. It is very important matter that future urban planning with based on globalization will be with full of basically changes in its management and perspectives.

Keywords: Urban planning, urban management, good governance, globalization, metropolitan, strategic planning

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Authors: Rayeheh Khatami, Toktam Hanaei, Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar

Abstract:

The growth of the agricultural sector is known as an essential way to achieve development goals in developing countries. Urban agriculture is a way to reduce the vulnerability of urban populations of the world toward global environmental change. It is a sustainable and efficient system to respond to the environmental, social and economic needs of the city, which leads to urban sustainability. Today, many local and national governments are developing urban agriculture as an effective tool in responding to challenges such as poverty, food security, and environmental problems. In this study, we follow a perspective based on urban agriculture literature in order to indicate the urban agriculture’s benefits in environmental planning strategies in non-western countries like Iran. The methodological approach adopted is based on qualitative approach and documentary studies. A total of 35 articles (mixed quantitative and qualitative methods studies) were studied in final analysis, which are published in relevant journals that focus on this subject. Studies show the wide range of positive benefits of urban agriculture on food security, nutrition outcomes, health outcomes, environmental outcomes, and social capital. However, there was no definitive conclusion about the negative effects of urban agriculture. This paper provides a conceptual and theoretical basis to know about urban agriculture and its roles in environmental planning, and also conclude the benefits of urban agriculture for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers who seek to create spaces in cities for implementation urban agriculture in future.

Keywords: Urban agriculture, environmental planning, urban planning, literature.

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Authors: M. Benachour, M. Benguediab, A. Hadjoui, N. Benachour

Abstract:

In this paper fatigue crack growth behavior of aeronautical aluminum alloy 2024 T351 was studied. Effects of various loading and geometrical parameters are studied such as stress ratio, amplitude loading, etc. The fatigue crack growth with constant amplitude is studied using the AFGROW code when NASGRO model is used. The effect of the stress ratio is highlighted, where one notices a shift of the curves of crack growth. The comparative study between two orientations L-T and T-L on fatigue behavior are presented and shows the variation on the fatigue life. L-T orientation presents a good fatigue crack growth resistance. Effects of crack closure are shown in Paris domain and that no crack closure phenomenons are present at high stress intensity factor.

Keywords: Fatigue crack, orientation effect, crack closure, aluminum alloy.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2154