Search results for: empirical distributions

Authors: J.-C. Cexus, A.O. Boudraa

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In this paper, a new approach for target recognition based on the Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm of Huang etal. [11] and the energy tracking operator of Teager [13]-[14] is introduced. The conjunction of these two methods is called Teager-Huang analysis. This approach is well suited for nonstationary signals analysis. The impulse response (IR) of target is first band pass filtered into subsignals (components) called Intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with well defined Instantaneous frequency (IF) and Instantaneous amplitude (IA). Each IMF is a zero-mean AM-FM component. In second step, the energy of each IMF is tracked using the Teager energy operator (TEO). IF and IA, useful to describe the time-varying characteristics of the signal, are estimated using the Energy separation algorithm (ESA) algorithm of Maragos et al .[16]-[17]. In third step, a set of features such as skewness and kurtosis are extracted from the IF, IA and IMF energy functions. The Teager-Huang analysis is tested on set of synthetic IRs of Sonar targets with different physical characteristics (density, velocity, shape,? ). PCA is first applied to features to discriminate between manufactured and natural targets. The manufactured patterns are classified into spheres and cylinders. One hundred percent of correct recognition is achieved with twenty three echoes where sixteen IRs, used for training, are free noise and seven IRs, used for testing phase, are corrupted with white Gaussian noise.

Keywords: Target recognition, Empirical mode decomposition, Teager-Kaiser energy operator, Features extraction.

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Authors: Kamaldeep Kaur, Arvinder Kaur, Ruchika Malhotra

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The aim of this paper is to rank the impact of Object Oriented(OO) metrics in fault prediction modeling using Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs). Past studies on empirical validation of object oriented metrics as fault predictors using ANNs have focused on the predictive quality of neural networks versus standard statistical techniques. In this empirical study we turn our attention to the capability of ANNs in ranking the impact of these explanatory metrics on fault proneness. In ANNs data analysis approach, there is no clear method of ranking the impact of individual metrics. Five ANN based techniques are studied which rank object oriented metrics in predicting fault proneness of classes. These techniques are i) overall connection weights method ii) Garson-s method iii) The partial derivatives methods iv) The Input Perturb method v) the classical stepwise methods. We develop and evaluate different prediction models based on the ranking of the metrics by the individual techniques. The models based on overall connection weights and partial derivatives methods have been found to be most accurate.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS), Backpropagation, Fault Prediction Modeling.

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Authors: Yilun Shang

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In this paper we consider a one-dimensional random geometric graph process with the inter-nodal gaps evolving according to an exponential AR(1) process. The transition probability matrix and stationary distribution are derived for the Markov chains concerning connectivity and the number of components. We analyze the algorithm for hitting time regarding disconnectivity. In addition to dynamical properties, we also study topological properties for static snapshots. We obtain the degree distributions as well as asymptotic precise bounds and strong law of large numbers for connectivity threshold distance and the largest nearest neighbor distance amongst others. Both exact results and limit theorems are provided in this paper.

Keywords: random geometric graph, autoregressive process, degree, connectivity, Markovian, wireless network.

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Authors: R. Sudhesh Solomon, P. Y. K. L. Srinivas, Abhay Narayan, Amitava Das

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Users in social networks either unicast or broadcast their messages. At mention is the popular way of unicasting for Twitter whereas general tweeting could be considered as broadcasting method. Understanding the information flow and dynamics within a Social Network and modeling the same is a promising and an open research area called Information Diffusion. This paper seeks an answer to a fundamental question - understanding if the at-mention network or the unicasting pattern in social media is purely random in nature or is there any user specific selectional preference? To answer the question we present an empirical analysis to understand the sociological aspects of Twitter mentions network within a social network community. To understand the sociological behavior we analyze the values (Schwartz model: Achievement, Benevolence, Conformity, Hedonism, Power, Security, Self-Direction, Stimulation, Traditional and Universalism) of all the users. Empirical results suggest that values traits are indeed salient cue to understand how the mention-based communication network functions. For example, we notice that individuals possessing similar values unicast among themselves more often than with other value type people. We also observe that traditional and self-directed people do not maintain very close relationship in the network with the people of different values traits.

Keywords: Social network analysis, information diffusion, personality and values, Twitter Mentions Network.

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Authors: L. Estrada, D. Torres, H. Toral

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In this work, a characterization and modeling of packet loss of a Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) communication is developed. The distributions of the number of consecutive received and lost packets (namely gap and burst) are modeled from the transition probabilities of two-state and four-state model. Measurements show that both models describe adequately the burst distribution, but the decay of gap distribution for non-homogeneous losses is better fit by the four-state model. The respective probabilities of transition between states for each model were estimated with a proposed algorithm from a set of monitored VoIP calls in order to obtain representative minimum, maximum and average values for both models.

Keywords: Packet loss, gap and burst distribution, Markovchain, VoIP measurements.

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Authors: Thomas Fiedler, Irina V. Belova, Graeme E. Murch

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Lattice Monte Carlo methods are an excellent choice for the simulation of non-linear thermal diffusion problems. In this paper, and for the first time, Lattice Monte Carlo analysis is performed on thermal diffusion combined with convective heat transfer. Laminar flow of water modeled as an incompressible fluid inside a copper pipe with a constant surface temperature is considered. For the simulation of thermal conduction, the temperature dependence of the thermal conductivity of the water is accounted for. Using the novel Lattice Monte Carlo approach, temperature distributions and energy fluxes are obtained.

Keywords: Coupled Analysis, Laminar Flow, Lattice MonteCarlo, Thermal Diffusion

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Authors: J. Levendovszky, I. Koncz, P. Boros

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The paper is concerned with developing stochastic delay mechanisms for efficient multicast protocols and for smooth mobile handover processes which are capable of preserving a given Quality of Service (QoS). In both applications the participating entities (receiver nodes or subscribers) sample a stochastic timer and generate load after a random delay. In this way, the load on the networking resources is evenly distributed which helps to maintain QoS communication. The optimal timer distributions have been sought in different p.d.f. families (e.g. exponential, power law and radial basis function) and the optimal parameter have been found in a recursive manner. Detailed simulations have demonstrated the improvement in performance both in the case of multicast and mobile handover applications.

Keywords: Multicast communication, stochactic delay mechanisms.

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Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

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This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: Ruin probability, compound Poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions.

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Authors: Chie Obayashi, Hidekazu Tanaka, Yoshiji Takagi

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In multi-parameter family of distributions, conditions for a modified maximum likelihood estimator to be second order admissible are given. Applying these results to the multi-parameter logistic regression model, it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is always second order inadmissible. Also, conditions for the Berkson estimator to be second order admissible are given.

Keywords: Berkson estimator, modified maximum likelihood estimator, Multi-parameter logistic regression model, second order admissibility.

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Authors: Alisha Khanal, Gokhan Saygili

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It is commonly observed that aftershocks follow the mainshock. Aftershocks continue over a period of time with a decreasing frequency and typically there is not sufficient time for repair and retrofit between a mainshock–aftershock sequence. Usually, aftershocks are smaller in magnitude; however, aftershock ground motion characteristics such as the intensity and duration can be greater than the mainshock due to the changes in the earthquake mechanism and location with respect to the site. The seismic performance of slopes is typically evaluated based on the sliding displacement predicted to occur along a critical sliding surface. Various empirical models are available that predict sliding displacement as a function of seismic loading parameters, ground motion parameters, and site parameters but these models do not include the aftershocks. The seismic risks associated with the post-mainshock slopes ('damaged slopes') subjected to aftershocks is significant. This paper extends the empirical sliding displacement models for flexible slopes subjected to earthquake mainshock-aftershock sequences (a multi hazard approach). A dataset was developed using 144 pairs of as-recorded mainshock-aftershock sequences using the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) database. The results reveal that the combination of mainshock and aftershock increases the seismic demand on slopes relative to the mainshock alone; thus, seismic risks are underestimated if aftershocks are neglected.

Keywords: Seismic slope stability, sliding displacement, mainshock, aftershock, landslide, earthquake.

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Authors: Arun Kumar, Yousef L. A. Latif, Fugen Daver

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Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability distributions. The estimates of the parameters are used to calculate natural disaster forecasts. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Humanitarian logistics, relief agencies, probability distribution.

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Authors: A. Abdedou, K. Bouhadef

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The present study is an analysis of the forced convection heat transfer in porous channel with an oriented jet at the inlet with uniform velocity and temperature distributions. The upper wall is insulated when the bottom one is kept at constant temperature higher than that of the fluid at the entrance. The dynamic field is analysed by the Brinkman-Forchheimer extended Darcy model and the thermal field is traduced by the energy one equation model. The numerical solution of the governing equations is obtained by using the finite volume method. The results mainly concern the effect of Reynolds number, jet angle and thermal conductivity ratio on the flow structure and local and average Nusselt numbers evolutions.

Keywords: Forced convection, oriented confined jet, porous media.

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Authors: A. Irudaya Veni Mary, M. Victor Louis Anthuvan, P. Christie, A. Indira

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In India, social enterprises are working to create social value in various fields including education; health; women and child development; environment protection and community development. Although social enterprises have brought about tremendous changes in the lives of beneficiaries, the importance of their works is not understood thoroughly. One of the ways to prove themselves is to measure the impact, which in recent times has received much attention. This paper focuses on the study of social value created by the social enterprises in the field of community development. It also aims to put forth a research tool for measuring the social value created by the social enterprises in the field of community development. A close-ended interview schedule was prepared to measure the social value creation and it was administered among 60 beneficiaries of two social enterprises who work in the field of community development. The study results show that the social enterprises have brought four types of impact in the life of their beneficiaries; economic impact, social impact, political impact and cultural impact. This study is limited to the social enterprises those who work towards community development. This empirical finding will enable the reader to understand various types of social value created by the social enterprises working in the field of community development. This study will also serve as guide for social enterprises in community development activities to measure their impact and thereby improve their operation towards the betterment of the society. This paper is derived from an empirical research carried out to describe the different types of social value created by the social enterprises in India.

Keywords: Social enterprise, social entrepreneurs, social impact, social value, tool for social impact measurement.

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Authors: Abd Elrahman Elgamala, N. Darwish, I. Bondouk, Sh. Hamada

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Available experimental angular distributions for ⁶Li elastically scattered from ¹⁶O nucleus in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV are investigated and reanalyzed using optical model of the conventional phenomenological potential and also using double folding optical model of different interaction models: DDM3Y1, CDM3Y1, CDM3Y2, and CDM3Y3. All the involved models of interaction are of M3Y Paris except DDM3Y1 which is of M3Y Reid and the main difference between them lies in the different values for the parameters of the incorporated density distribution function F(ρ). We have extracted the renormalization factor N_R for ⁶Li+¹⁶O nuclear system in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV using the aforementioned interaction models.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model, folding potential, density distribution.

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Authors: Aicha Rima Cheniti, Hatem Besbes, Joseph Haggege, Christophe Sintes

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In this paper, we consider a drift flux mixture model of the blood flow. The mixture consists of gas phase which is carbon dioxide and liquid phase which is an aqueous carbon dioxide solution. This model was used to determine the distributions of the mixture velocity, the mixture pressure, and the carbon dioxide pressure. These theoretical data are used to determine a measurement method of mean gas pressure through the determination of radial velocity distribution. This method can be applicable in experimental domain.

Keywords: Mean carbon dioxide pressure, mean mixture pressure, mixture velocity, radial velocity.

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Authors: Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Sin-Jie Cai

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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate thelong-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run.Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause strongerimpacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries.The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.

Keywords: House prices, Macroeconomic Variables, Panel cointegration, Dynamic OLS.

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Authors: Naveed Ur Rehman, Rehan Jamil, Irfan Jamil

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In this paper, we regard as a coded transmission over a frequency-selective channel. We plan to study analytically the convergence of the turbo-detector using a maximum a posteriori (MAP) equalizer and a MAP decoder. We demonstrate that the densities of the maximum likelihood (ML) exchanged during the iterations are e-symmetric and output-symmetric. Under the Gaussian approximation, this property allows to execute a one-dimensional scrutiny of the turbo-detector. By deriving the analytical terminology of the ML distributions under the Gaussian approximation, we confirm that the bit error rate (BER) performance of the turbo-detector converges to the BER performance of the coded additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel at high signal to noise ratio (SNR), for any frequency selective channel.

Keywords: MAP, ML, SNR, Decoder, BER, Coded transmission.

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Authors: Shan Gao

Abstract:

This paper treats a discrete-time finite buffer batch arrival queue with a single working vacation and partial batch rejection in which the inter-arrival and service times are, respectively, arbitrary and geometrically distributed. The queue is analyzed by using the supplementary variable and the imbedded Markov-chain techniques. We obtain steady-state system length distributions at prearrival, arbitrary and outside observer-s observation epochs. We also present probability generation function (p.g.f.) of actual waiting-time distribution in the system and some performance measures.

Keywords: Discrete-time, finite buffer, single working vacation, batch arrival, partial rejection.

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Authors: Yi Hong, Zhao Yang Dong

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This paper presents the performance analysis of space-time trellis codes in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing systems (STTC-OFDMs) over quasi-static frequency selective fading channels. In particular, the effect of channel delay distributions on the code performance is discussed. For a STTCOFDM over multiple-tap channels, two extreme conditions that produce the largest minimum determinant are highlighted. The analysis also proves that the corresponding coding gain increases with the maximum tap delay. The performance of STTC-OFDM, under various channel conditions, is evaluated by simulation. It is shown that the simulation results agree with the performance analysis.

Keywords: Space-time trellis code, OFDM, delay profile.

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Authors: M. Ahmadi, M. Kafil, H. Ebrahimi

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Nowadays, induction motors have a significant role in industries. Condition monitoring (CM) of this equipment has gained a remarkable importance during recent years due to huge production losses, substantial imposed costs and increases in vulnerability, risk, and uncertainty levels. Motor current signature analysis (MCSA) is one of the most important techniques in CM. This method can be used for rotor broken bars detection. Signal processing methods such as Fast Fourier transformation (FFT), Wavelet transformation and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) are used for analyzing MCSA output data. In this study, these signal processing methods are used for broken bar problem detection of Mobarakeh steel company induction motors. Based on wavelet transformation method, an index for fault detection, CF, is introduced which is the variation of maximum to the mean of wavelet transformation coefficients. We find that, in the broken bar condition, the amount of CF factor is greater than the healthy condition. Based on EMD method, the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMF) is calculated and finds that when motor bars become broken the energy of IMFs increases.

Keywords: Broken bar, condition monitoring, diagnostics, empirical mode decomposition, Fourier transform, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Wanyu Mao, Qiwen Sun, Weiyong Ying, Dingye Fang

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The influence of copper promoters and reaction conditions on the formation of alcohols byproducts of a common Fischer-Tropsch synthesis used iron-based catalysts were investigated. A good compromise of 28%Cu/FeKLaSiO2 can lead to the optimization of an improved Fischer-Tropsch catalyst. The product distribution shifts towards hydrocarbons with increasing the reaction temperature, while pressure promotes the formation of alcohols. It was found that the production of either alcohols or hydrocarbons followed A-S-F distributions, and their α parameters were essentially different which indicated a competition in the growing chain between the two species. TPD after acetaldehyde adsorption gave strong evidence of the insertion of a C1 oxygen-containing species into an alkyl chain.

Keywords: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, Fe-Cu catalyst, alcohols byproducts, reaction pathways

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Authors: L. Dzierzbicka-Głowacka, M. Janecki

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Seasonal variability of nutrients concentration in the Baltic Sea using the 3D ecosystem numerical model 3D-CEMBS has been investigated. Additionally this study shows horizontal and vertical distribution of nutrients in the Baltic Sea. Model domain is an extended Baltic Sea area divided into 600x640 horizontal grid cells. Aside from standard hydrodynamic parameters 3D-CEMBS produces modeled ecological variables such as: three types of phytoplankton, two detrital classes, dissolved oxygen and the nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate). The presented model allows prediction of parameters that describe distribution of nutrients concentration and phytoplankton biomass. 3D-CEMBS can be used to study the effect of different hydrodynamic and biogeochemical processes on distributions of these variables in a larger scale.

Keywords: ecosystem model, nutrients, Baltic Sea

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Authors: Abraham Undu, Stephen Akuma

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Websites are becoming a major component of an organization’s success in our ever globalizing competitive world. The website symbolizes an organization, interacting or projecting an organization’s principles, culture, values, vision, and perspectives. It is an interface connecting organizations and their clients. The university, as an academic institution, makes use of a website to communicate and offer computing services to its stakeholders (students, staff, host community, university management etc). Unfortunately, website designers often give more consideration to the technology, organizational structure and business objectives of the university than to the usability of the site. Website designers end up designing university websites which do not meet the needs of the primary users. This empirical study investigated the Benue State University website from the point view of students. This research was realized by using a standardized website usability questionnaire based on the five factors of usability defined by WAMMI (Website Analysis and Measurement Inventory): attractiveness, controllability, efficiency, learnability and helpfulness. The result of the investigation showed that the university website (https://portal.bsum.edu.ng/) has neutral usability level because of the usability issues associated with the website. The research recommended feasible solutions to improve the usability of the website from the users’ perspective and also provided a modified usability model that will be used for better evaluation of the Benue State University website.

Keywords: Usability, usability factors, university websites, user’s perspective, WAMMI, modified usability model, Benue State University.

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Authors: N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Zh. Kerimkulov, D. K. Alimov, A. V. Yushkov, N. Amangeldi, A. N. Bakhtibaev

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The main aim of the current work is to examine if 14N  is candidate to be clusterized nuclei or not. In order to check this  attendance, we have measured the angular distributions for 14N ion  beam elastically scattered on 12C target nuclei at different low  energies; 17.5, 21, and 24.5MeV which are close to the Coulomb  barrier energy for 14N+12C nuclear system. Study of various transfer  reactions could provide us with useful information about the  attendance of nuclei to be in a composite form (core + valence). The  experimental data were analyzed using two approaches;  Phenomenological (Optical Potential) and semi-microscopic (Double  Folding Potential). The agreement between the experimental data and  the theoretical predictions is fairly good in the whole angular range.

 

Keywords: Deuteron Transfer, Elastic Scattering, Optical Model, Double Folding, Density Distribution.

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Authors: Sh. Hamada

Abstract:

The current work aims to study the rainbow like-structure observed in the elastic scattering of alpha particles on both ¹²C and ¹⁶O nuclei. We reanalyzed the experimental elastic scattering angular distributions data for α+¹²C and α+¹⁶O nuclear systems at different energies using both optical model and double folding potential of different interaction models such as: CDM3Y1, DDM3Y1, CDM3Y6 and BDM3Y1. Potential created by BDM3Y1 interaction model has the shallowest depth which reflects the necessity to use higher renormalization factor (N_r). Both optical model and double folding potential of different interaction models fairly reproduce the experimental data.

Keywords: Nuclear rainbow, elastic scattering, optical model, double folding, density distribution.

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Authors: N.Ibrahim, Peter A. Jensen, K. Dam-Johansen, Roshafima.R. Ali, Rafiziana.M. Kasmani

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The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of reaction temperature and wheat straw moisture content on the pyrolysis product yields, in the temperature range of 475-575 °C. Samples of straw with moisture contents from 1.5 wt % to 15.0 wt % were fed to a bench scale Pyrolysis Centrifuge Reactor (PCR). The experimental results show that the changes in straw moisture content have no significant effect on the distribution of pyrolysis product yields. The maximum bio-oil yields approximately 60 (wt %, on dry ash free feedstock basis) was observed around 525 °C - 550 °C for all straw moisture levels. The water content in the wet straw bio-oil was the highest. The heating value of bio-oil and solid char were measured and the percentages of its energy distribution were calculated. The energy distributions of bio-oil, char and gas were 56- 69 % 24-33 %, and 2-19 %, respectively.

Keywords: Flash pyrolysis, moisture content, wheat straw, biooil.

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Authors: Amir Atrian, Javad Jafari Fesharaki, Gh. Hossein Majzoobi, Mahsa Sheidaee

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The analytical solution of functionally graded piezoelectric hollow cylinder which is under radial electric potential and non-axisymmetric thermo-mechanical loads, are presented in this paper. Using complex Fourier series and estimation of power law for variations of material characterizations through the thickness, the electro thermo mechanical behavior of the FGPM cylinder is obtained. The stress and displacement distributions and the effect of electric potential field on the cylinder behavior are also presented and some applicable results are offered at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Analytical, FGM, Fourier series, Non-axisymmetric, Piezoelectric, Thermo-elasticity

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Authors: Masoud Nasri, Sadat Feiznia, Mohammad Jafari, Hasan Ahmadi

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Today, incorrect use of lands and land use changes, excessive grazing, no suitable using of agricultural farms, plowing on steep slopes, road construct, building construct, mine excavation etc have been caused increasing of soil erosion and sediment yield. For erosion and sediment estimation one can use statistical and empirical methods. This needs to identify land unit map and the map of effective factors. However, these empirical methods are usually time consuming and do not give accurate estimation of erosion. In this study, we applied GIS techniques to estimate erosion and sediment of Menderjan watershed at upstream Zayandehrud river in center of Iran. Erosion faces at each land unit were defined on the basis of land use, geology and land unit map using GIS. The UTM coordinates of each erosion type that showed more erosion amounts such as rills and gullies were inserted in GIS using GPS data. The frequency of erosion indicators at each land unit, land use and their sediment yield of these indices were calculated. Also using tendency analysis of sediment yield changes in watershed outlet (Menderjan hydrometric gauge station), was calculated related parameters and estimation errors. The results of this study according to implemented watershed management projects can be used for more rapid and more accurate estimation of erosion than traditional methods. These results can also be used for regional erosion assessment and can be used for remote sensing image processing.

Keywords: Erosion and sedimentation, Gully, Rill, GIS, GPS, Menderjan Watershed

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Authors: Goh Chin Hock, Chandan Kumar Chakrabarty, Mohammad Hadi Badjian, Sanjay Devkumar

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This paper presents a microstrip meandered open circuited stub with bandstop characteristic. The proposed structure is designed on a high frequency laminate with dielectric constant of 4.0 and board thickness of 0.508 millimeters. The scattering parameters and electromagnetic field distributions at various frequencies are investigated by modeling the structure with three dimensional electromagnetic simulation tool. In order to describe the resonant and bandstop characteristic of the meandered open circuited stub, a Smith chart as well as electric field at various frequencies and phases is illustrated accordingly. The structure can be an alternative method in suppressing the harmonic response of a bandpass filter.

Keywords: Bandstop, Equivalent Lumped Element Model, Electromagnetic Model, Meandered Open Circuited Stub

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Authors: Mohammad Ahmed Rehmatullah

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The aim of this paper is to discuss a low-cost methodology that can predict traffic flow conflicts and quantitatively rank crash expectancies (based on relative probability) for various traffic facilities. This paper focuses on the application of statistical distributions to model traffic flow and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate traffic and discusses how to create a tool in order to predict the possibility of a traffic crash. A low-cost data collection methodology has been discussed for the heterogeneous traffic flow that exists and a GIS platform has been proposed to thematically represent traffic flow from simulations and the probability of a crash. Furthermore, discussions have been made to reflect the dynamism of the model in reference to its adaptability, adequacy, economy, and efficiency to ensure adoption.

Keywords: Heterogeneous traffic data collection, Monte CarloSimulation, Traffic Flow Modeling, GIS.

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