Towards Modeling for Crashes A Low-Cost Adaptive Methodology for Karachi
Authors: Mohammad Ahmed Rehmatullah
The aim of this paper is to discuss a low-cost methodology that can predict traffic flow conflicts and quantitatively rank crash expectancies (based on relative probability) for various traffic facilities. This paper focuses on the application of statistical distributions to model traffic flow and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate traffic and discusses how to create a tool in order to predict the possibility of a traffic crash. A low-cost data collection methodology has been discussed for the heterogeneous traffic flow that exists and a GIS platform has been proposed to thematically represent traffic flow from simulations and the probability of a crash. Furthermore, discussions have been made to reflect the dynamism of the model in reference to its adaptability, adequacy, economy, and efficiency to ensure adoption.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1072008Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF
 Helman, D.L, in Traffic Incident Management. Public Roads, 68 (3), 2004, pp. 14-21.
 Bilham, R.,et. al., "Seismic Harzard in Karachi, Pakistan: Uncertain Past, Uncertain Future", in Seismological Research Letters, vol. 78, No. 6, pp 601-613
 TRB, Revised Traffic Flow Theory A State-of-the-Art Report, 2001, ch. 2
 TRB, Traffic Flow Theory, A Monograph, 1975; ch. 3
 Tom V. Mathew et. al., Heterogeneous Traffic Flow Modeling and Simulation using Cell Automata, in Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference , 2006, pp 492 - 197
 Nan Vou & Jianwei Wang, A Video Based Method for Evaluating Traffic Data from Detectors, in Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference, 2006, pp 232 - 237.
 Adolf D. May, Traffic Flow Fundamentals, 1990, Prentice Hall, ISBN 0-13-926072-2
 Banks, J., et. al., in Discrete Event System Evaluation, 3rd edition Prentice Hall, 2001, pp. 269
 C.S. Papacostas, P.D. Prevedouros, Transportation Engineering and Planning, Prentice Hall Third Edition,
 McLeans, J.R., Two Lane Highway traffic Operations - theory and practice, Gordon and breach Science Publishers, New York, 1989.
 Weisstein, Eric W. "Monte Carlo Method." From MathWorld - Wolfram Web Resource. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/MonteCarloMethod.html