Search results for: Curve Numbers (CV)

Authors: Asfar Ali Khan

Abstract:

Analytical expression for maximum power transfer through a transmission line limited by voltage stability has been formulated using exact representation of transmission line with ABCD parameters. The expression has been used for plotting PV curve at different power factors of a radial transmission line. Limiting values of reactive power have been obtained.

Keywords: Power Transfer, PV Curve, Voltage Stability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3262

Authors: Ashok Ganguly, Pranjali Arondekar

Abstract:

In the present paper, we use generalized B-Spline curve in trigonometric form on circular domain, to capture the transcendental nature of circle involute curve and uncertainty characteristic of design. The required involute curve get generated within the given tolerance limit and is useful in gear design.

Keywords: Bézier, Circle Involute, NAUT B-Spline, Spur Gear.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1750

Authors: Süha Yılmaz, Emin Özyılmaz, Melih Turgut, Şuur Nizamoğlu

Abstract:

In this paper, position vector of a partially null unit speed curve with respect to standard frame of Minkowski space-time is studied. First, it is proven that position vector of every partially null unit speed curve satisfies a vector differential equation of fourth order. In terms of solution of the differential equation, position vector of a partially null unit speed curve is expressed.

Keywords: Frenet Equations, Partially Null Curves, Minkowski Space-time, Vector Differential Equation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1125

Authors: Chanon Aphirukmatakun, Natasha Dejdumrong

Abstract:

In image processing and visualization, comparing two bitmapped images needs to be compared from their pixels by matching pixel-by-pixel. Consequently, it takes a lot of computational time while the comparison of two vector-based images is significantly faster. Sometimes these raster graphics images can be approximately converted into the vector-based images by various techniques. After conversion, the problem of comparing two raster graphics images can be reduced to the problem of comparing vector graphics images. Hence, the problem of comparing pixel-by-pixel can be reduced to the problem of polynomial comparisons. In computer aided geometric design (CAGD), the vector graphics images are the composition of curves and surfaces. Curves are defined by a sequence of control points and their polynomials. In this paper, the control points will be considerably used to compare curves. The same curves after relocated or rotated are treated to be equivalent while two curves after different scaled are considered to be similar curves. This paper proposed an algorithm for comparing the polynomial curves by using the control points for equivalence and similarity. In addition, the geometric object-oriented database used to keep the curve information has also been defined in XML format for further used in curve comparisons.

Keywords: Bezier curve, Said-Ball curve, Wang-Ball curve, DP curve, CAGD, comparison, geometric object database.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2168

Authors: Osea Zebua, Norikazu Ikoma, Hiroshi Maeda

Abstract:

Estimation of voltage stability based on optimal filtering method is presented. PV curve is used as a tool for voltage stability analysis. Dynamic voltage stability estimation is done by using particle filter method. Optimum value (nose point) of PV curve can be estimated by estimating parameter of PV curve equation optimal value represents critical voltage and condition at specified point of measurement. Voltage stability is then estimated by analyzing loading margin condition c stimating equation. This maximum loading ecified dynamically.

Keywords: normalized PV curve, optimal filtering method particle filter, voltage stability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1755

Authors: Decha Samana, Vites Longani

Abstract:

For positive integer s and t, the Ramsey number R(s, t) is the least positive integer n such that for every graph G of order n, either G contains Ks as a subgraph or G contains Kt as a subgraph. We construct the circulant graphs and use them to obtain lower bounds of some small Ramsey numbers.

Keywords: Lower bound, Ramsey numbers, Graphs, Distance line.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1341

Authors: Lee Feng Koo, Tze Jin Wong, Pang Hung Yiu, Nik Mohd Asri Nik Long

Abstract:

Greater common divisor (GCD) attack is an attack that relies on the polynomial structure of the cryptosystem. This attack required two plaintexts differ from a fixed number and encrypted under same modulus. This paper reports a security reaction of Lucas Based El-Gamal Cryptosystem in the Elliptic Curve group over finite field under GCD attack. Lucas Based El-Gamal Cryptosystem in the Elliptic Curve group over finite field was exposed mathematically to the GCD attack using GCD and Dickson polynomial. The result shows that the cryptanalyst is able to get the plaintext without decryption by using GCD attack. Thus, the study concluded that it is highly perilous when two plaintexts have a slight difference from a fixed number in the same Elliptic curve group over finite field.

Keywords: Decryption, encryption, elliptic curve, greater common divisor.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 656

Authors: N.Subramanian, C.Murugesan

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to the study of the general properties of Orlicz space of entire sequence of fuzzy numbers by using infinite matrices.

Keywords: Fuzzy numbers, infinite matrix, Orlicz space, entiresequence.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1163

Authors: S. Shirazian, M.R. Ghayamghamian, G.R. Nouri

Abstract:

Bridges are one of the main components of transportation networks. They should be functional before and after earthquake for emergency services. Therefore we need to assess seismic performance of bridges under different seismic loadings. Fragility curve is one of the popular tools in seismic evaluations. The fragility curves are conditional probability statements, which give the probability of a bridge reaching or exceeding a particular damage level for a given intensity level. In this study, the seismic performance of a two-span simply supported concrete bridge is assessed. Due to usual lack of empirical data, the analytical fragility curve was developed by results of the dynamic analysis of bridge subjected to the different time histories in near-fault area.

Keywords: Fragility curve, Seismic behavior, Time historyanalysis, Transportation Network.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2751

Authors: Yong-Je Choi, Moo-Seop Kim, Hang-Rok Lee, Ho-Won Kim

Abstract:

Polynomial bases and normal bases are both used for elliptic curve cryptosystems, but field arithmetic operations such as multiplication, inversion and doubling for each basis are implemented by different methods. In general, it is said that normal bases, especially optimal normal bases (ONB) which are special cases on normal bases, are efficient for the implementation in hardware in comparison with polynomial bases. However there seems to be more examined by implementing and analyzing these systems under similar condition. In this paper, we designed field arithmetic operators for each basis over GF(2233), which field has a polynomial basis recommended by SEC2 and a type-II ONB both, and analyzed these implementation results. And, in addition, we predicted the efficiency of two elliptic curve cryptosystems using these field arithmetic operators.

Keywords: Elliptic Curve Cryptosystem, Crypto Algorithm, Polynomial Basis, Optimal Normal Basis, Security.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2039

Authors: Sofia Ayouche, Rachid Ellaia, Rajae Aboulaich

Abstract:

Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios; therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon curve and the NSS curve.

Keywords: Optimization, zero-coupon curve, Nelson-Siegel- Svensson, Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead Algorithm.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1445

Authors: Massoud Masoumi, Hosseyn Mahdizadeh

Abstract:

A new and highly efficient architecture for elliptic curve scalar point multiplication which is optimized for a binary field recommended by NIST and is well-suited for elliptic curve cryptographic (ECC) applications is presented. To achieve the maximum architectural and timing improvements we have reorganized and reordered the critical path of the Lopez-Dahab scalar point multiplication architecture such that logic structures are implemented in parallel and operations in the critical path are diverted to noncritical paths. With G=41, the proposed design is capable of performing a field multiplication over the extension field with degree 163 in 11.92 s with the maximum achievable frequency of 251 MHz on Xilinx Virtex-4 (XC4VLX200) while 22% of the chip area is occupied, where G is the digit size of the underlying digit-serial finite field multiplier.

Keywords: Elliptic curve cryptography, FPGA implementation, scalar point multiplication.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2508

Authors: Raveen R. Goundar, Ken-ichi Shiota, Masahiko Toyonaga

Abstract:

The major building block of most elliptic curve cryptosystems are computation of multi-scalar multiplication. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for simultaneous multi-scalar multiplication, that is by employing addition chains. The previously known methods utilizes double-and-add algorithm with binary representations. In order to accomplish our purpose, an efficient empirical method for finding addition chains for multi-exponents has been proposed.

Keywords: elliptic curve cryptosystems, multi-scalar multiplication, addition chains, Fibonacci sequence.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1567

Authors: Libin Wu, Bainian Li

Abstract:

In This Article We establish moment inequality of dependent random variables,furthermore some theorems of strong law of large numbers and complete convergence for sequences of dependent random variables. In particular, independent and identically distributed Marcinkiewicz Law of large numbers are generalized to the case of m0-dependent sequences.

Keywords: Lacunary System, Generalized Gaussian, NA sequences, strong law of large numbers.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1443

Authors: S. Soltan, A. Zarnani, R. AliMohammadzadeh, M. Rahgozar

Abstract:

XML has become a popular standard for information exchange via web. Each XML document can be presented as a rooted, ordered, labeled tree. The Node label shows the exact position of a node in the original document. Region and Dewey encoding are two famous methods of labeling trees. In this paper, we propose a new insert friendly labeling method named IFDewey based on recently proposed scheme, called Extended Dewey. In Extended Dewey many labels must be modified when a new node is inserted into the XML tree. Our method eliminates this problem by reserving even numbers for future insertion. Numbers generated by Extended Dewey may be even or odd. IFDewey modifies Extended Dewey so that only odd numbers are generated and even numbers can then be used for a much easier insertion of nodes.

Keywords: XML, tree labeling, query processing.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1591

Authors: Khampheth Bounnady, Boontee Kruatrachue, Somkiat Wangsiripitak

Abstract:

This paper proposed high level feature for online Lao handwritten recognition. This feature must be high level enough so that the feature is not change when characters are written by different persons at different speed and different proportion (shorter or longer stroke, head, tail, loop, curve). In this high level feature, a character is divided in to sequence of curve segments where a segment start where curve reverse rotation (counter clockwise and clockwise). In each segment, following features are gathered cumulative change in direction of curve (- for clockwise), cumulative curve length, cumulative length of left to right, right to left, top to bottom and bottom to top ( cumulative change in X and Y axis of segment). This feature is simple yet robust for high accuracy recognition. The feature can be gather from parsing the original time sampling sequence X, Y point of the pen location without re-sampling. We also experiment on other segmentation point such as the maximum curvature point which was widely used by other researcher. Experiments results show that the recognition rates are at 94.62% in comparing to using maximum curvature point 75.07%. This is due to a lot of variations of turning points in handwritten.

Keywords: Handwritten feature, chain code, Lao handwritten recognition.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1989

Authors: Betül Gezer, Ahmet Tekcan, Osman Bizim

Abstract:

In elliptic curve theory, number of rational points on elliptic curves and determination of these points is a fairly important problem. Let p be a prime and Fp be a finite field and k ∈ Fp. It is well known that which points the curve y2 = x3 + kx has and the number of rational points of on Fp. Consider the circle family x2 + y2 = r2. It can be interesting to determine common points of these two curve families and to find the number of these common points. In this work we study this problem.

Keywords: Elliptic curves over finite fields, rational points on elliptic curves and circles.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1998

Authors: Shen-Chun Wu, Chuo-Jeng Huang, Wun-Hong Yang, Jy-Cheng Chang, Chien-Chun Kung

Abstract:

This investigation examines the effect of the sintering temperature curve in manufactured nickel powder capillary structure (wick) for a loop heat pipe (LHP). The sintering temperature curve is composed of a region of increasing temperature; a region of constant temperature and a region of declining temperature. The most important region is that in which the temperature increases, as an index in the stage in which the temperature increases. The wick of nickel powder is manufactured in the stage of fixed sintering temperature and the time between the stage of constant temperature and the stage of falling temperature. When the slope of the curve in the region of increasing temperature is unity (equivalent to 10 °C/min), the structure of the wick is complete and the heat transfer performance is optimal. The result of experiment test demonstrates that the heat transfer performance is optimal at 320W; the minimal total thermal resistance is approximately 0.18°C/W, and the heat flux is 17W/cm2; the internal parameters of the wick are an effective pore radius of 3.1 μm, a permeability of 3.25×10-13m2 and a porosity of 71%.

Keywords: Loop heat pipe (LHP), capillary structure (wick), sintered temperature curve.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2053

Authors: Hidehiko Okada

Abstract:

Evolution strategy (ES) is a well-known instance of evolutionary algorithms, and there have been many studies on ES. In this paper, the author proposes an extended ES for solving fuzzy-valued optimization problems. In the proposed ES, genotype values are not real numbers but fuzzy numbers. Evolutionary processes in the ES are extended so that it can handle genotype instances with fuzzy numbers. In this study, the proposed method is experimentally applied to the evolution of neural networks with fuzzy weights and biases. Results reveal that fuzzy neural networks evolved using the proposed ES with fuzzy genotype values can model hidden target fuzzy functions even though no training data are explicitly provided. Next, the proposed method is evaluated in terms of variations in specifying fuzzy numbers as genotype values. One of the mostly adopted fuzzy numbers is a symmetric triangular one that can be specified by its lower and upper bounds (LU) or its center and width (CW). Experimental results revealed that the LU model contributed better to the fuzzy ES than the CW model, which indicates that the LU model should be adopted in future applications of the proposed method.

Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, evolution strategy, fuzzy number, feedforward neural network, neuroevolution.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1512

Authors: A. Andreasyan, C. Connors

Abstract:

The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature algorithm-based X509v3 certificates are becoming more popular due to their short public and private key sizes. Moreover, these certificates can be stored in Internet of Things (IoT) devices, with limited resources, using less memory and transmitted in network security protocols, such as Internet Key Exchange (IKE), Transport Layer Security (TLS) and Secure Shell (SSH) with less bandwidth. The proposed method gives another advantage, in that it increases the performance of the above-mentioned protocols in terms of key exchange by saving one scalar multiplication operation.

Keywords: Cryptography, elliptic curve digital signature algorithm, key exchange, network security protocols.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 525

Authors: Rand Alfaris, Mohamed Rushdan MD Said, Mohamed Othman, Fudziah Ismail

Abstract:

This paper is introduced a modification to Diffie- Hellman protocol to be applicable on the decimal numbers, which they are the numbers between zero and one. For this purpose we extend the theory of the congruence. The new congruence is over the set of the real numbers and it is called the “real congruence" or the “real modulus". We will refer to the existing congruence by the “integer congruence" or the “integer modulus". This extension will define new terms and redefine the existing terms. As the properties and the theorems of the integer modulus are extended as well. Modified Diffie-Hellman key exchange protocol is produced a sharing, secure and decimal secret key for the the cryptosystems that depend on decimal numbers.

Keywords: Extended theory of the congruence, modified Diffie- Hellman protocol.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1522

Authors: Bachir Boucheham, Youcef Ferdi, Mohamed Chaouki Batouche

Abstract:

We suggest a novel method to incorporate longterm redundancy (LTR) in signal time domain compression methods. The proposition is based on block-sorting and curve simplification. The proposition is illustrated on the ECG signal as a post-processor for the FAN method. Test applications on the new so-obtained FAN+ method using the MIT-BIH database show substantial improvement of the compression ratio-distortion behavior for a higher quality reconstructed signal.

Keywords: ECG compression, Long-term redundancy, Block-sorting, Curve Simplification.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1478

Authors: Thi T. Nguyen, Lee N. Gordon-Brown

Abstract:

A new deployment of the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for portfolio allocation, is demonstrated in this paper. Rather than exclusive reference to mean and variance as in the traditional mean-variance method, the criteria used in this demonstration are the first four moments of the portfolio distribution. Each asset is evaluated based on its marginal impacts to portfolio higher moments that are characterized by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then centroid-based defuzzification is applied to convert fuzzy numbers to the crisp numbers by which SAW and TOPSIS can be deployed. Experimental results suggest the similar efficiency of these MCDM approaches to selecting dominant assets for an optimal portfolio under higher moments. The proposed approaches allow investors flexibly adjust their risk preferences regarding higher moments via different schemes adapting to various (from conservative to risky) kinds of investors. The other significant advantage is that, compared to the mean-variance analysis, the portfolio weights obtained by SAW and TOPSIS are consistently well-diversified.

Keywords: Fuzzy numbers, SAW, TOPSIS, portfolio optimization, higher moments, risk management.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2090

Authors: Wen-Haw Chen, Sheng-Gwo Chen

Abstract:

The distance between two objects is an important problem in CAGD, CAD and CG etc. It will be presented in this paper that a simple and quick method to estimate the distance between a point and a Bezier curve on a Bezier surface.

Keywords: Geodesic-like curve, distance, projection, Bezier.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2509

Authors: R. M. Kashim

Abstract:

The study investigated primary school teachers’ conceptual and procedural knowledge of rational numbers and its effects on pupil’s achievement in rational numbers. Specifically, primary school teachers’ level of conceptual knowledge about rational numbers, primary school teachers’ level of procedural knowledge about rational numbers, and the effects of teachers conceptual and procedural knowledge on their pupils understanding of rational numbers in primary schools is investigated. The study was carried out in Bauchi metropolis in the Bauchi state of Nigeria. The design of the study was a multi-stage design. The first stage was a descriptive design. The second stage involves a pre-test, post-test only quasi-experimental design. Two instruments were used for the data collection in the study. These were Conceptual and Procedural knowledge test (CPKT) and Rational number achievement test (RAT), the population of the study comprises of three (3) mathematics teachers’ holders of Nigerian Certificate in Education (NCE) teaching primary six and 210 pupils in their intact classes were used for the study. The data collected were analyzed using mean, standard deviation, analysis of variance, analysis of covariance and t- test. The findings indicated that the pupils taught rational number by a teacher that has high conceptual and procedural knowledge understand and perform better than the pupil taught by a teacher who has low conceptual and procedural knowledge of rational number. It is, therefore, recommended that teachers in primary schools should be encouraged to enrich their conceptual knowledge of rational numbers. Also, the superiority performance of teachers in procedural knowledge in rational number should not become an obstruction of understanding. Teachers Conceptual and procedural knowledge of rational numbers should be balanced so that primary school pupils will have a view of better teaching and learning of rational number in our contemporary schools.

Keywords: Achievement, conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, rational numbers.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 847

Authors: Ahmet Tekcan

Abstract:

Let p ≥ 5 be a prime number and let Fp be a finite field. In this work, we determine the number of rational points on singular curves Ea : y2 = x(x - a)2 over Fp for some specific values of a.

Keywords: Singular curve, elliptic curve, rational points.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1401

Authors: A. Basiri, S. Rahmany, D. Khatibi

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to review some of standard fact on Miura curves. We give some easy theorem in number theory to define Miura curves, then we present a new implementation of Arita algorithm for Miura curves.

Keywords: Miura curve, discrete logarithm problem, algebraic curve cryptography, Jacobian group.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1422

Authors: Ethar H. Khalil, Bahaa I. Kazem

Abstract:

In this work a software simulation model has been proposed for two driven wheels mobile robot path planning; that can navigate in dynamic environment with static distributed obstacles. The work involves utilizing Bezier curve method in a proposed N order matrix form; for engineering the mobile robot path. The Bezier curve drawbacks in this field have been diagnosed. Two directions: Up and Right function has been proposed; Probability Recursive Function (PRF) to overcome those drawbacks. PRF functionality has been developed through a proposed; obstacle detection function, optimization function which has the capability of prediction the optimum path without comparison between all feasible paths, and N order Bezier curve function that ensures the drawing of the obtained path. The simulation results that have been taken showed; the mobile robot travels successfully from starting point and reaching its goal point. All obstacles that are located in its way have been avoided. This navigation is being done successfully using the proposed PRF techniques.

Keywords: Mobile robot, path planning, Bezier curve.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1417

Authors: Mak Kaboudan

Abstract:

A multi-agent system is developed here to predict monthly details of the upcoming peak of the 24th solar magnetic cycle. While studies typically predict the timing and magnitude of cycle peaks using annual data, this one utilizes the unsmoothed monthly sunspot number instead. Monthly numbers display more pronounced fluctuations during periods of strong solar magnetic activity than the annual sunspot numbers. Because strong magnetic activities may cause significant economic damages, predicting monthly variations should provide different and perhaps helpful information for decision-making purposes. The multi-agent system developed here operates in two stages. In the first, it produces twelve predictions of the monthly numbers. In the second, it uses those predictions to deliver a final forecast. Acting as expert agents, genetic programming and neural networks produce the twelve fits and forecasts as well as the final forecast. According to the results obtained, the next peak is predicted to be 156 and is expected to occur in October 2011- with an average of 136 for that year.

Keywords: Computational techniques, discrete wavelet transformations, solar cycle prediction, sunspot numbers.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1285

Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2661