Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1813

Search results for: portfolio optimization

1813 A Mean–Variance–Skewness Portfolio Optimization Model

Authors: Kostas Metaxiotis

Abstract:

Portfolio optimization is one of the most important topics in finance. This paper proposes a mean–variance–skewness (MVS) portfolio optimization model. Traditionally, the portfolio optimization problem is solved by using the mean–variance (MV) framework. In this study, we formulate the proposed model as a three-objective optimization problem, where the portfolio's expected return and skewness are maximized whereas the portfolio risk is minimized. For solving the proposed three-objective portfolio optimization model we apply an adapted version of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII). Finally, we use a real dataset from FTSE-100 for validating the proposed model.

Keywords: Evolutionary algorithms, portfolio optimization, skewness, stock selection.

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1812 Mathematical Programming Models for Portfolio Optimization Problem: A Review

Authors: M. Mokhtar, A. Shuib, D. Mohamad

Abstract:

Portfolio optimization problem has received a lot of attention from both researchers and practitioners over the last six decades. This paper provides an overview of the current state of research in portfolio optimization with the support of mathematical programming techniques. On top of that, this paper also surveys the solution algorithms for solving portfolio optimization models classifying them according to their nature in heuristic and exact methods. To serve these purposes, 40 related articles appearing in the international journal from 2003 to 2013 have been gathered and analyzed. Based on the literature review, it has been observed that stochastic programming and goal programming constitute the highest number of mathematical programming techniques employed to tackle the portfolio optimization problem. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers and practitioners for easy references of portfolio optimization.

Keywords: Portfolio optimization, Mathematical programming, Multi-objective programming, Solution approaches.

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1811 Stock Portfolio Selection Using Chemical Reaction Optimization

Authors: Jin Xu, Albert Y.S. Lam, Victor O.K. Li

Abstract:

Stock portfolio selection is a classic problem in finance, and it involves deciding how to allocate an institution-s or an individual-s wealth to a number of stocks, with certain investment objectives (return and risk). In this paper, we adopt the classical Markowitz mean-variance model and consider an additional common realistic constraint, namely, the cardinality constraint. Thus, stock portfolio optimization becomes a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem and it is difficult to be solved by exact optimization algorithms. Chemical Reaction Optimization (CRO), which mimics the molecular interactions in a chemical reaction process, is a population-based metaheuristic method. Two different types of CRO, named canonical CRO and Super Molecule-based CRO (S-CRO), are proposed to solve the stock portfolio selection problem. We test both canonical CRO and S-CRO on a benchmark and compare their performance under two criteria: Markowitz efficient frontier (Pareto frontier) and Sharpe ratio. Computational experiments suggest that S-CRO is promising in handling the stock portfolio optimization problem.

Keywords: Stock portfolio selection, Markowitz model, Chemical Reaction Optimization, Sharpe ratio

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1810 The Impact of Transaction Costs on Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in Portfolio Optimization

Authors: B. Marasović, S. Pivac, S. V. Vukasović

Abstract:

Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the presence of transaction costs on the Croatian capital market is analyzed. The model applied in the paper is an extension of the standard portfolio mean-variance optimization model in which transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. This model allows different costs for different securities, and different costs for buying and selling. In order to find efficient portfolio, using this model, first, the solution of quadratic programming problem of similar size to the Markowitz model, and then the solution of a linear programming problem have to be found. Furthermore, in the paper the impact of transaction costs on the efficient frontier is investigated. Moreover, it is shown that global minimum variance portfolio on the efficient frontier always has the same level of the risk regardless of the amount of transaction costs. Although efficient frontier position depends of both transaction costs amount and initial portfolio it can be concluded that extreme right portfolio on the efficient frontier always contains only one stock with the highest expected return and the highest risk.

Keywords: Croatian capital market, Fractional quadratic programming, Markowitz model, Portfolio optimization, Transaction costs.

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1809 PSO-based Possibilistic Portfolio Model with Transaction Costs

Authors: Wei Chen, Cui-you Yao, Yue Qiu

Abstract:

This paper deals with a portfolio selection problem based on the possibility theory under the assumption that the returns of assets are LR-type fuzzy numbers. A possibilistic portfolio model with transaction costs is proposed, in which the possibilistic mean value of the return is termed measure of investment return, and the possibilistic variance of the return is termed measure of investment risk. Due to considering transaction costs, the existing traditional optimization algorithms usually fail to find the optimal solution efficiently and heuristic algorithms can be the best method. Therefore, a particle swarm optimization is designed to solve the corresponding optimization problem. At last, a numerical example is given to illustrate our proposed effective means and approaches.

Keywords: Possibility theory, portfolio selection, transaction costs, particle swarm optimization.

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1808 Fuzzy Numbers and MCDM Methods for Portfolio Optimization

Authors: Thi T. Nguyen, Lee N. Gordon-Brown

Abstract:

A new deployment of the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for portfolio allocation, is demonstrated in this paper. Rather than exclusive reference to mean and variance as in the traditional mean-variance method, the criteria used in this demonstration are the first four moments of the portfolio distribution. Each asset is evaluated based on its marginal impacts to portfolio higher moments that are characterized by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then centroid-based defuzzification is applied to convert fuzzy numbers to the crisp numbers by which SAW and TOPSIS can be deployed. Experimental results suggest the similar efficiency of these MCDM approaches to selecting dominant assets for an optimal portfolio under higher moments. The proposed approaches allow investors flexibly adjust their risk preferences regarding higher moments via different schemes adapting to various (from conservative to risky) kinds of investors. The other significant advantage is that, compared to the mean-variance analysis, the portfolio weights obtained by SAW and TOPSIS are consistently well-diversified.

Keywords: Fuzzy numbers, SAW, TOPSIS, portfolio optimization, higher moments, risk management.

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1807 Advanced Technologies and Algorithms for Efficient Portfolio Selection

Authors: Konstantinos Liagkouras, Konstantinos Metaxiotis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a classification of the various technologies applied for the solution of the portfolio selection problem according to the discipline and the methodological framework followed. We provide a concise presentation of the emerged categories and we are trying to identify which methods considered obsolete and which lie at the heart of the debate. On top of that, we provide a comparative study of the different technologies applied for efficient portfolio construction and we suggest potential paths for future work that lie at the intersection of the presented techniques.

Keywords: Portfolio selection, optimization techniques, financial models, stochastics, heuristics.

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1806 Dynamic Correlations and Portfolio Optimization between Islamic and Conventional Equity Indexes: A Vine Copula-Based Approach

Authors: Imen Dhaou

Abstract:

This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization.

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1805 Multi-Criteria Based Robust Markowitz Model under Box Uncertainty

Authors: Pulak Swain, A. K. Ojha

Abstract:

Portfolio optimization is based on dealing with the problems of efficient asset allocation. Risk and Expected return are two conflicting criteria in such problems, where the investor prefers the return to be high and the risk to be low. Using multi-objective approach we can solve those type of problems. However the information which we have for the input parameters are generally ambiguous and the input values can fluctuate around some nominal values. We can not ignore the uncertainty in input values, as they can affect the asset allocation drastically. So we use Robust Optimization approach to the problems where the input parameters comes under box uncertainty. In this paper, we solve the multi criteria robust problem with the help of  E- constraint method.

Keywords: Portfolio optimization, multi-objective optimization, E-constraint method, box uncertainty, robust optimization.

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1804 A Fuzzy Mixed Integer Multi-Scenario Portfolio Optimization Model

Authors: M. S. Osman, A. A. Tharwat, I. A. El-Khodary, A. G. Chalabi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a multiple objective optimization model with respect to portfolio selection problem for investors looking forward to diversify their equity investments in a number of equity markets. Based on Markowitz-s M-V model we developed a Fuzzy Mixed Integer Multi-Objective Nonlinear Programming Problem (FMIMONLP) to maximize the investors- future gains on equity markets, reach the optimal proportion of the budget to be invested in different equities. A numerical example with a comprehensive analysis on artificial data from several equity markets is presented in order to illustrate the proposed model and its solution method. The model performed well compared with the deterministic version of the model.

Keywords: Equity Markets, Future Scenarios, PortfolioSelection, Multiple Criteria Fuzzy Optimization

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1803 Analyzing the Effects of Adding Bitcoin to Portfolio

Authors: Shashwat Gangwal

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effect of adding Bitcoin, to the portfolio (stocks, bonds, Baltic index, MXEF, gold, real estate and crude oil) of an international investor by using daily data available from 2nd of July, 2010 to 2nd of August, 2016. We conclude that adding Bitcoin to portfolio, over the course of the considered period, always yielded a higher Sharpe ratio. This means that Bitcoin’s returns offset its high volatility. This paper, recognizing the fact that Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class, gives the readers a basic idea about the working of the virtual currency, the increasing number developments in the financial industry revolving around it, its unique features and the detailed look into its continuously growing acceptance across different fronts (Banks, Merchants and Countries) globally. We also construct optimal portfolios to reflect the highly lucrative and largely unexplored opportunities associated with investment in Bitcoin.

Keywords: Portfolio management, Bitcoin, optimization, Sharpe ratio.

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1802 Financial Portfolio Optimization in Electricity Markets: Evaluation via Sharpe Ratio

Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

Abstract:

Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, Sharpe ratio.

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1801 Financial Portfolio Optimization in Turkish Electricity Market via Value at Risk

Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

Abstract:

Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, Sharpe ratio, value at risk.

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1800 An Expert System Designed to Be Used with MOEAs for Efficient Portfolio Selection

Authors: K. Metaxiotis, K. Liagkouras

Abstract:

This study presents an Expert System specially designed to be used with Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) for the solution of the portfolio selection problem. The validation of the proposed hybrid System is done by using data sets from Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany and FTSE 100 in UK. The performance of the proposed system is assessed in comparison with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGAII). The evaluation of the performance is based on different performance metrics that evaluate both the proximity of the solutions to the Pareto front and their dispersion on it. The results show that the proposed hybrid system is efficient for the solution of this kind of problems.

Keywords: Expert Systems, Multiobjective optimization, Evolutionary Algorithms, Portfolio Selection.

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1799 Project Portfolio Management Phases: A Technique for Strategy Alignment

Authors: Amaral, António, Araújo, Madalena

Abstract:

This paper seeks to give a general idea of the universe of project portfolio management, from its multidisciplinary nature, to the many challenges it raises, passing through the different techniques, models and tools used to solve the multiple problems known. It is intended to contribute to the clarification, with great depth, of the impacts and relationships involved in managing the projects- portfolio. It aims at proposing a technique for the project alignment with the organisational strategy, in order to select projects that later on will be considered in the analysis and selection of the portfolio. We consider the development of a methodology for assessing the project alignment index very relevant in the global market scenario. It can help organisations to gain a greater awareness of market dynamics, speed up the decision process and increase its consistency, thus enabling the strategic alignment and the improvement of the organisational performance.

Keywords: Project Portfolio Management Cycle, Project Portfolio Selection, Resource Assignment, Strategy Alignment technique

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1798 Effect of Supplementary Premium on the Optimal Portfolio Policy in a Defined Contribution Pension Scheme with Refund of Premium Clauses

Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah Obinichi C. Mandah Imoleayo S. Asiwaju

Abstract:

In this paper, we studied the effect of supplementary premium on the optimal portfolio policy in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme with refund of premium clauses. This refund clause allows death members’ next of kin to withdraw their relative’s accumulated wealth during the accumulation period. The supplementary premium is to help sustain the scheme and is assumed to be stochastic. We considered cases when the remaining wealth is equally distributed and when it is not equally distributed among the remaining members. Next, we considered investments in cash and equity to help increase the remaining accumulated funds to meet up with the retirement needs of the remaining members and composed the problem as a continuous time mean-variance stochastic optimal control problem using the actuarial symbol and established an optimization problem from the extended Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equations. The optimal portfolio policy, the corresponding optimal fund size for the two assets and also the efficient frontier of the pension members for the two cases was obtained. Furthermore, the numerical simulations of the optimal portfolio policies with time were presented and the effect of the supplementary premium on the optimal portfolio policy was discussed and observed that the supplementary premium decreases the optimal portfolio policy of the risky asset (equity). Secondly we observed a disparity between the optimal policies for the two cases.

Keywords: Defined contribution pension scheme, extended Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equations, optimal portfolio policies, refund of premium clauses, supplementary premium.

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1797 Using Analytic Hierarchy Process as a Decision-Making Tool in Project Portfolio Management

Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi

Abstract:

Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.

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1796 Portfolio Management: A Fuzzy Set Based Approach to Monitoring Size to Maximize Return and Minimize Risk

Authors: Margaret F. Shipley

Abstract:

Fuzzy logic can be used when knowledge is incomplete or when ambiguity of data exists. The purpose of this paper is to propose a proactive fuzzy set- based model for reacting to the risk inherent in investment activities relative to a complete view of portfolio management. Fuzzy rules are given where, depending on the antecedents, the portfolio size may be slightly or significantly decreased or increased. The decision maker considers acceptable bounds on the proportion of acceptable risk and return. The Fuzzy Controller model allows learning to be achieved as 1) the firing strength of each rule is measured, 2) fuzzy output allows rules to be updated, and 3) new actions are recommended as the system continues to loop. An extension is given to the fuzzy controller that evaluates potential financial loss before adjusting the portfolio. An application is presented that illustrates the algorithm and extension developed in the paper.

Keywords: Portfolio Management, Financial Market Monitoring, Fuzzy Controller, Fuzzy Logic,

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1795 Improving Teacher Profesionalism through Certification Program: An Indonesia Case Study

Authors: Triyanto

Abstract:

Government of Indonesia held a certification program to enhance the professionalism of teachers by using portfolio assessment. This research discusses about the effectiveness of certification programs to enhance the professionalism of teacher in Indonesia. Portfolio assessment method has drawbacks. The certified teachers do not show significant performance improvement. Therefore, the government changes the portfolio assessment method to the education and training for teachers.

Keywords: Profesionalism, Teacher, Certification, Indonesia

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1794 An Automated Stock Investment System Using Machine Learning Techniques: An Application in Australia

Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

Abstract:

A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: Machine learning, stock market trading, logistic principal component analysis, automated stock investment system.

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1793 Portfolio Management for Construction Company during Covid-19 Using AHP Technique

Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

Abstract:

In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: Portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique.

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1792 An Approach to Improvement of Information Integrity in Key Areas of Portfolio Management

Authors: Victoria A. Bakhtina

Abstract:

At a time of growing market turbulence and a strong shifts towards increasingly complex risk models and more stringent audit requirements, it is more critical than ever to maintain the highest quality of financial and credit information. IFC implemented an approach that helps increase data integrity and quality significantly. This approach is called “Screening". Screening is based on linking information from different sources to identify potential inconsistencies in key financial and credit data. That, in turn, can help to ease the trials of portfolio supervision, and improve overall company global reporting and assessment systems. IFC experience showed that when used regularly, Screening led to improved information.

Keywords: Information Integrity, Information Quality, Business Rules, Portfolio Management

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1791 Portfolio Simulation in GSM Cellular Telecommunication Industry for Company's Decision and Policies Making

Authors: M. Dachyar, Yudavedito

Abstract:

The rising growth of the GSM cellular phone industry has tightening competition level between providers in making strategies enhancing the market shares in Indonesia. Tsel, as one of those companies, has to determine the proper strategy to sustain as well as improve the market share without reducing its operational income level. Portfolio simulation model is designed with a dynamic system approach. The result of this research is a recommendation to the company by optimizing its technological policies, services, and promotions. The tariff policies and the signal quality should not be the main focus because this company has had a large number of customers and a good infrastructural condition.

Keywords: Telecommunication industry, simulation, dynamic system, portfolio, quality services.

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1790 A Short Reflection on the Strengths and Weaknesses of Simulation Optimization

Authors: P. Vazan, P. Tanuska

Abstract:

The paper provides the basic overview of simulation optimization. The procedure of its practical using is demonstrated on the real example in simulator Witness. The simulation optimization is presented as a good tool for solving many problems in real praxis especially in production systems. The authors also characterize their own experiences and they mention the strengths and weakness of simulation optimization.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, simulation optimization, Witness

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1789 Particle Swarm Optimization with Reduction for Global Optimization Problems

Authors: Michiharu Maeda, Shinya Tsuda

Abstract:

This paper presents an algorithm of particle swarm optimization with reduction for global optimization problems. Particle swarm optimization is an algorithm which refers to the collective motion such as birds or fishes, and a multi-point search algorithm which finds a best solution using multiple particles. Particle swarm optimization is so flexible that it can adapt to a number of optimization problems. When an objective function has a lot of local minimums complicatedly, the particle may fall into a local minimum. For avoiding the local minimum, a number of particles are initially prepared and their positions are updated by particle swarm optimization. Particles sequentially reduce to reach a predetermined number of them grounded in evaluation value and particle swarm optimization continues until the termination condition is met. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, we examine the minimum by using test functions compared to existing algorithms. Furthermore the influence of best value on the initial number of particles for our algorithm is discussed.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, Global optimization, Metaheuristics, Reduction.

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1788 Simulated Annealing Application for Structural Optimization

Authors: Farhad Kolahan, M. Hossein Abolbashari, Samaeddin Mohitzadeh

Abstract:

Several methods are available for weight and shape optimization of structures, among which Evolutionary Structural Optimization (ESO) is one of the most widely used methods. In ESO, however, the optimization criterion is completely case-dependent. Moreover, only the improving solutions are accepted during the search. In this paper a Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm is used for structural optimization problem. This algorithm differs from other random search methods by accepting non-improving solutions. The implementation of SA algorithm is done through reducing the number of finite element analyses (function evaluations). Computational results show that SA can efficiently and effectively solve such optimization problems within short search time.

Keywords: Simulated annealing, Structural optimization, Compliance, C.V. product.

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1787 Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Based on Evolutionary Structural Optimization

Authors: Sang-Rak Kim, Jea-Yong Park, Won-Goo Lee, Jin-Shik Yu, Seog-Young Han

Abstract:

This paper presents a Reliability-Based Topology Optimization (RBTO) based on Evolutionary Structural Optimization (ESO). An actual design involves uncertain conditions such as material property, operational load and dimensional variation. Deterministic Topology Optimization (DTO) is obtained without considering of the uncertainties related to the uncertainty parameters. However, RBTO involves evaluation of probabilistic constraints, which can be done in two different ways, the reliability index approach (RIA) and the performance measure approach (PMA). Limit state function is approximated using Monte Carlo Simulation and Central Composite Design for reliability analysis. ESO, one of the topology optimization techniques, is adopted for topology optimization. Numerical examples are presented to compare the DTO with RBTO.

Keywords: Evolutionary Structural Optimization, PerformanceMeasure Approach, Reliability-Based Topology Optimization, Reliability Index Approach.

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1786 Comparison of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of System Marginal Price of Greek Energy Market

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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1785 Non-Stationary Stochastic Optimization of an Oscillating Water Column

Authors: María L. Jalón, Feargal Brennan

Abstract:

A non-stationary stochastic optimization methodology is applied to an OWC (oscillating water column) to find the design that maximizes the wave energy extraction. Different temporal cycles are considered to represent the long-term variability of the wave climate at the site in the optimization problem. The results of the non-stationary stochastic optimization problem are compared against those obtained by a stationary stochastic optimization problem. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed non-stationary optimization provides designs with a better fit to reality. However, the stationarity assumption can be adequate when looking at averaged system response.

Keywords: Non-stationary stochastic optimization, oscillating water column, temporal variability, wave energy.

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1784 Contribution to the Query Optimization in the Object-Oriented Databases

Authors: Minyar Sassi, Amel Grissa-Touzi

Abstract:

Appeared toward 1986, the object-oriented databases management systems had not known successes knew five years after their birth. One of the major difficulties is the query optimization. We propose in this paper a new approach that permits to enrich techniques of query optimization existing in the object-oriented databases. Seen success that knew the query optimization in the relational model, our approach inspires itself of these optimization techniques and enriched it so that they can support the new concepts introduced by the object databases.

Keywords: Query, query optimization, relational databases, object-oriented databases.

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